Why 2024 Has Been Brutal for Incumbents

[@harrylong2796]

It's simple really: me no money me vote other person maybe then me have money

[@Mcat-What]

What's sad is that people don't even look at there policies

[@wenterinfaer1656]

​@@Mcat-What what's sad is people casting a vote thinking it will solve their problems

[@bdeas]

that's racist how dare you

[@JasonAtlas]

Go cry about the woke mafia somewhere else.

[@TurtleShinobi42]

@@wenterinfaer1656 What's sad is people completely dismissing the electoral system as useless instead of trying to make a change

[@Mcat-What]

Inflation, Inflation, Inflation... oh and did I mention Inflation?

[@mkvenner2]

I know people really love inflation.

[@marcellinma6169]

@@mkvenner2 Especially on Deviantart

[@chickfila7nugget]

I like how economics and politics are intertwined economists talk about policies that will affect the economy politicians talk about the economy hopefully TLDR will shed light on this topic by making a video about it

[@dean_l33]

​@@mkvenner2 Pyrocynical must be changing his pants every hour

[@theoreticalphysics3644]

2.4 percent inflation rn 4.1 percent unemployment here in the US, so forget inflation with numbers like that! I just wanna see my cost of living improve. I'm sure as hell certain it's not gonna under the upcoming billionaire plutocracy administration's tariff-imposing flat-tax union-busting mass-deportation GDP-shrinking promise.

[@Fidel-Castroni]

In Botswana, we toppled the party that has ruled for 58 years since our independence in a peaceful election. I've never seen so much optimism from my people, we call it the 2nd Republic. We're glad to prove why we are a beacon of successful democracy in Africa.

[@אורסימןטוב-ש9ה]

What are the policies of the new government? I'm curious

[@hk_brit_fisher]

Great to see a successful story of democracy ! It gives me hope !

[@kennethkho7165]

That sounds incredible, I understand that Botswana had one of the best governance in Africa.

[@MrOldWilliam]

Have been watching your elections this year even tho i am from Europe. Congrats!🎉

[@dogzabob]

Congrats borswanabro

[@AsiniusNaso]

Politics has proven to be little more than sacrificing the village chief after a poor harvest

[@Túrin_Tura]

always has been

[@E3ECO]

Yep. Western leaders have little control over prices, employment, stock markets, or interest rates, but they take the blame for all of them.

[@adamgonzalez9650]

Especially after 4 years of the same poor harvest, While inviting more villagers to join the already starving village, Village chief gonna be used to placate the g-ds

[@StrikeBolteafc]

@@adamgonzalez9650not accurate to the real world

[@Túrin_Tura]

@@StrikeBolteafc idk that sounded pretty accurate to the current middle class american experience to me

[@laiphone8972]

Meanwhile in Bulgaria : - What is a incumbent?

[@johnl.7754]

It’s usually because of the economy or inflation

[@Makes_me_wonder]

Most people when they say "economy", they just mean inflation

[@geofflepper3207]

​@@Makes_me_wonder They do now but not always. In the 1930s when people complained about the economy inflation was definitely not their prime concern.

[@michaelstone5298]

In Toronto Canada the number of people using food banks has gone up over 400% since pre-pandemic. And they wonder why they're behind in the pools.

[@Ethan11892]

And most arent even canadian...

[@Kier_1]

ye pre-PANDEMIC. ofc its the governments fault that the biggest health crisis in 100years happened in their term.

[@mma0911]

Doug ford is still ahead in the polls

[@JollyOldCanuck]

@@mma0911 Canadians have a hard time differentiating between the responsibilities of the federal government and their provincial government, so they just blame the federal government for everything. Not to say that Trudeau isn't an incompetent buffoon, but blaming him for provincial lock downs and provincial level mismanagement of Canadian healthcare funds is a bit unfair. It makes more sense to blame him for the TFW debacle, using low wage foreign labour to prevent a wage-price spiral was never going to be popular with the working class.

[@mma0911]

@JollyOldCanuck Very true, there was that clip of some people in Kelowna voting to "get Trudeau out", in a provincial election, where not only the Liberals have no affiliate in BC, there isn't even a party named "Liberal".

[@atomiczoey6363]

Inflation goes up, food prices go up. Inflation goes down, food prices go up...

[@omega6749]

The fuck are we supposed to do then?

[@herisuryadi6885]

Well Inflation is cumulative

[@JollyOldCanuck]

@@omega6749 There isn't much that you can do, lower inflation just means that prices are going up slower than before not that prices are going down. Inflation is also compounding, this years 2% inflation compounds with last years 4% inflation.

[@danielzhang1916]

@@JollyOldCanuck I'll take inflation over what China is going through any day, falling prices are not good

[@victork6994]

​@@omega6749prices will never fall back to where they were. The central bank won't allow it. It would ruin the economy.

[@markojovanovski3372]

1:34 never thought id see my Highschool in a TLDR video lol

[@ДејанРистовски-ч7т]

Kade e ova?

[@RedSunFX]

I guess most people have learned by now that lower inflation doesn't mean lower prices. It just means that prices are rising more slowly, but can't come back down until you enter deflation. But that wouldn't really be desirable either...

[@AYTM1200]

Deflation is only bad in a debt based economy.

[@RedSunFX]

@@AYTM1200 Sure, but I don't see any major country moving away from a depth and growth focused economy anytime soon. The most promising idea for this was crypto. However, at this point it's a high risk investment at best and a scam infested swamp at worst. Fingers crossed that maybe one of the currencies will be widely used for everyday exchanges in a few years.

[@jeromefitzroy]

Japan has been suffering from deflation for 20 years, not great either, but great for us tourists

[@RJH755]

Happened here in New Zealand last year and we ended up with probably the furthest right government since the 90s

[@karankapoor2701]

They aren't as rw as one might say

[@evilsanta8585]

How’d it turn out?

[@doncorleone1553]

>Most right wing government since the 90s! >Literally the most milquetoast neoliberal party you’ve ever seen

[@daandevos122]

@@doncorleone1553 More neolib than Renaissance? I thought that was the protypical neolib party

[@zb3495]

Your pm is being a real turd on LinkedIn

[@NearQuasar]

In South Africa, the poor performance of the ANC is a turning point for South Africa, after nearly 20 years of stagnation

[@katynewt]

20?! We've had 30 years of it in Japan! And it doesn't look like it's ever going to improve...

[@theconqueringram5295]

This is why I'll never become a politician myself. Literally every problem is *your* problem.

[@karankapoor2701]

The only reason BJP suffered a setback was because they were too overconfident.... their parent organisation also had a disagreement with them and they didn't campaign which is whyy it suffered .

[@Narendra3421]

This is just another western pr0p0ganda channel Don't waste ur time explaining to them 😂

[@sr.s6852]

aka cope

[@fawaaza.7743]

No they suffered because their economic policies are ass. Look at India’s unemployment and food inflation. The poor citizens must have been cooked. That’s what happens when you vote for religion folks. You become Pakistan.

[@sydv2005]

@@Narendra3421obviously every other channel is propaganda except aaj tak…

[@stereomachine]

@@Narendra3421 least obvious excessive indian nationalist who can't take the slightest bit of criticism without losing it

[@Arjn17]

Switzerland: As usual we'll see a shift in 2-3% maximum in each party's voter share and the composition of the Federal Council (government) will stay the same.

[@danielzhang1916]

the US is getting like that too, House and Senate are the same numbers the past few elections

[@shadeblackwolf1508]

This anti-encumbant wave started in 2022, when we hit the economic fallout of covid. Any government that did not manage to restore people's quality of life to pre-covid levels at least is going to struggle for a while yet

[@Sjaak2511]

2:33 293 seats = minority, but 273 seats are needed for a majorerity

[@G1CAAAAEO]

Yeah I didn't get that one either

[@kamakshyarath1026]

293 is the number of seats NDA has that is bjp and it's allies Bjp alone doesn't have 273 seats this time

[@MayankJairaj]

The picture is correct BJP is a party and the picture shows NDA which is a coalition of parties including BJP BJP won 240 seats and NDA got 293, the other alliance called India won 234 seats which had the INC that individually got 99 seats.

[@reiudfgq3vrh34ur]

In Japan there is nominal majority and big majority

[@swamantakmajumder4876]

3 independent MPs later announced their support to Congress taking INDIA bloc's tally to 237​@@MayankJairaj

[@jeongminio]

Nearly forgot that we had come to the end of 2024

[@g00dbyemisterA]

i think its worth adding "the inflation rate is going down" is one statement, but "the inflation rate is going down from a position where it was extremely high to a position where it is just fairly high" is another, the inflation rate could have dropped to the same as it was pre-pandemic right now and things would still be getting more expensive quicker because of the way the previous high rate of inflation compounded on today's rate, and wages simply arent keeping up. will be interesting to see if this trend continues in my own home of ireland, 29th of november election

[@geofflepper3207]

The American inflation rate is currently 2.6%. I wouldn't call that high. The September year over year inflation rate in Canada was 1.6%. That's not high. On a monthly basis prices in Canada fell in August and again in September. Obviously prices falling is not a high inflation rate. So it's not just that inflation is lower than it was a couple of years ago. Inflation is low. Trump's claim that he's going to get inflation under control is like someone showing up after a football game is over and saying that he is going to get three touchdowns to win the game. The game against inflation has already been won. And Trump plans at least six inflation causing policies that if implemented will make inflation skyrocket upwards. Maybe MAGA cult voters will finally learn that they shouldn't trust Trump's promises and realize that he has been conning them for the past nine years.

[@g00dbyemisterA]

@ i absolutely agree that the inflation is low at this moment however compounding considers the past. if you had 10% inflation last year and 2% this year, the dollar of 2 years ago is as valuable as 1.122 dollars now, were the inflation rate a steady 2% that 2 year old dollar would be worth 1.0404 dollars now, that’s how compounding works. wages did not keep track with that inflation, i personally despise trump and think his policies are bad (both social and economic) but i just think it’s worth pointing out that while saying the inflation rate is back down to where it was (which is a good thing that was not assured by any means), people still feel the effects of covid. hence the disliking of incumbents

[@toggerz7487]

Ireland might also buck the trend. The government recently said they had too much money. They've at least had the chance to push for more popular polices given their books are balanced.

[@g00dbyemisterA]

@ not really though, i’m irish myself and the vibe is very much “the government tried to avoid taking in corporate tax in order to continue appeasing tech firms” and housing is a huge issue, at the first debate which was about only housing, the incumbent parties were very poor and came across awfully (constantly forgetting question askers names as well) and one saying, verbatim “i want more landlords” (in the context of more small holding landlords rather than large ones). don’t get me wrong, ireland LOVES electing FF and FG while quietly praying “this time it’ll be different” but i think the result is going to be a minority coalition between them or they’ll have to invite every centre left party into government (SD, GP and Lab) and they’ll take a beating this election. (mind you i might be in my bubble of urban left wing young adults who are very disenchanted with the government so i could be very wrong)

[@ilect1690]

​@@geofflepper3207nah thats never happening

[@SwissSareth]

It's very cheap to just blame everybody and everything else instead of accepting the fault may lie with yourself.

[@apostateunion]

I get it, people spend a lot. But the government also spends a lot and that triggers markets to rise the prices.

[@TheEbrithil2]

Voters don't just remember inflation, the prices still haven't gone down.

[@scottbrick9918]

People seem to have run out of patience with politicians, and rigutly so given most seem to not fo anything or care. However people also seemmto think that things can be fixed overnight and that just isnt true, no matter who is in power

[@danielzhang1916]

they just want to vote them out and hope the other party does a better job

[@anikaa7108]

A major reason for Modi's third tenure was the presence of a spineless opposition. For the last 10 years the Parliament didn't had a LoP which I think was a significant if not gigantic cause for Modi's victory. Inflation and unemployment are some major factors why his party didn't hit the 272 mark in the Parliament.

[@akashpanchal8237]

Not spine less, opposite was hammered down by the ruling party, financially, electoral and administrative.

[@debojitrabha2502]

Not really. Modi had a really hard time this election. The only reason he won is due to coalition. Indian politics is very mature now and have evolve a lot since 1947 specially after 1989. Inflation and unemployment is not his fault. It is inevitable. The entire world is effected by these two forces. Its worse in India and China due to over-population. This will get worse doesn't matter what government comes along in the future. So embrace yourself!

[@NoEndForUs]

The opposition is shameless as it can get. Reminds me of the US politics. RP = BJP and DP = Congress and allies Same populist politics, polarization and divide and rule.

[@RohitSharma-oh8qm]

@@akashpanchal8237 hammered down by rulling party ...hmmm. like how

[@akashpanchal8237]

@RohitSharma-oh8qm electoral bonds...kuchh yaad aya? ED, breaking down parties, chandigarh mayor elections

[@user-jy8fn4hh1b]

One important thing that's been glossed over here is that even though the inflation rate may have gone down slightly, the prices of necessities such as groceries, gas, etc. has not.

[@getnohappy]

Each country is different, though given (in the UK) inflation was exacerbated by both Brexit and war profiteering in the fossil fuel and grocery sector, at last we didn't vote for the Party synonymous with corporate greed ^^

[@deathdrone6988]

6:52. Jesus, how tall is Baron Trump when Trump himself is 6ft2!

[@dean_l33]

He's 6ft9 and yeah people speculate they feed him growth hormon or something

[@yudistiraliem135]

Her mom is tall for a woman. Other children of Trump has shorter mothers.

[@reiudfgq3vrh34ur]

I think 6"9

[@danielzhang1916]

if your parents are tall, you will usually be tall too, I'm like average height

[@cesarmonteserrattitton2669]

In Brazil, the 2024 municipal ellections were extraordinarily good for incumbents...

[@bar88888]

In Poland local and europarlamentar election also was great for incubents. But in Poland and the Brazil incubents changed last year - so the trend is the same - but the election there were faster.

[@BZAKether]

Somehow, Mexico manages to be the exception once again.

[@AsobiMedio]

It's simple really, they fed into the populist rhetoric that people were looking for. But even more importantly, they actually DID what they promised to do and increased the quality of life for their people. Shockingly, representing popular ideas and then enacting policy that is popular with most of the population and improving their lives is a good way to maintain political power.

[@univeropa3363]

Scholz lost because he signed up to America's newest project and that has predictably turned sour.

[@maybenations]

Scholz lost because fridems were polling under the sill, and it made them anxious.

[@univeropa3363]

@@maybenations That just ignores why the entire coalition is under water.

[@maybenations]

@@univeropa3363 This coaltion was barely floating since its inception, like most possible coalitions after AFD got popular probably would, its hard to call them drowning, as they could easily stay the course they're on and not succumb to public revolts, or anything. But slow erosion of support, is something that SPD and Greens can afford, especially not with AfD and Bavarians being close enough in policy to them, they can't afford to be seen as nonagentive (C*U is big enough to force legislation through, while AfD haven't had a stint in government to show how hard or soft they'd be on economy) and easiest way to show that you're acting is to raise an ultimatum, even if the legislation would be whittled down later.

[@univeropa3363]

@@maybenations The coalition fell from over 50% to barely over 30% and all three parties were affected. The Greens the least, because they have a very devoted core voter base, but even they are at their worst point in seven years. For the SPD and the FDP the poll numbers are even worse. Why is that? Because we are in a constant state of crisis, especially because of the war.

[@leavesinautumn5959]

It's a bad time to be an ordinary person in most countries so that reflects in their voting behaviour. Most people are deeply unsatisfied with the status quo, fair or not these incumbents are seen as representative of that status quo and therefore to blame for it.

[@tomshady3530]

Bruh, that's easy. You serve your donors and not your citizens, "ok, next".

[@picest_]

in my country india biggest reason the ruling party lose majority was because of two reason first the core voter of modi get over confident and didn't go to vote and 2nd is the misinformation about special advantage given to some people called reservation will be removed did gone trending in indian social media

[@DirtyGooch69]

I guess when everyone else's countries became shitholes it was a reason to vote the other way. In India, nothing changed in that regard.

[@personbelowmeisadumbass8891]

This comment is a lie by a BJP Bot,He is paid by right wing people to make such comments,Unemployment is at a 45 year high,Common goods inflation is high,Chinese border incursions are high and Modi is stoking religious tensions

[@ILoveTinfoilHats]

Lmao keeps defending your corrupt politicians

[@omarmansuri7099]

OR maybe it has to do with price hikes and high unemployment as well.

[@picest_]

@@omarmansuri7099 maybe who knows

[@delilah9741]

Though voters says its "inflation", they seem more angry that their wages haven't kept up with price increases.

[@pieterscribante3999]

The same thing happened in Mauritius this week

[@anibal1802]

God the Mauritius one it was a massacre for the ruling party, only 2 seats of 60, so impressive

[@zeroyuki92]

The only major democracy where incumbent won decisively that I can think of (without losing supermajority like India) is Indonesia, although it's a bit more complex than that (Jokowi choose Prabowo as his successor and so were a lot of his previous supporter parties, but with an major exception). That said actually his popularity at 2024 had dropped quite significantly, but since his popularity was astronomically high it ended up still much more popular compared to most leaders nowadays. So the 'incumbent popularity drop' is still consistent.

[@VTh-f5x]

There is nothing called "super majoroty" in India. Its called "simple majority". Bit I agree. Prabowo won on coatails of a very successful stint of Jokowi. He has been a very good leader for Indonesia.

[@nelswolf]

Dont worry Singapore will always be consistent

[@rudhranandu]

India's BJP is still has been the single largest party in the country and opposition alliance which includes 26+ parties won 234 seats was still less than that Narendra Modi's party won.

[@alphamikeomega5728]

OPEC made oil expensive; now everywhere's experienced inflation.

[@shinydewott]

6:06 “Well for starters, there will almost certainly be some more victims of this anti-incumbent wave before too long” Miles Teller: say that again?

[@molt45]

This just goes to show a massive flaw in democracy, the average voter isn't informed enough to understand that economic hardship isn't because of their countries leadership but votes like it is.

[@JSM-bb80u]

In UK it's justified though. Tories' policies were terrible.

[@molt45]

@JSM-bb80u yeah like she mentioned, the tories had many problems besides just inflation

[@StefanErwinBaumer]

I think the video's main point, that this is primarily driven by inflation, is just not correct. They slightly touch on it that local factors also influence outcomes, but that's understating it. Globally, governments have been downright shitting the bed and quite simply have not done what they were voted into office for

[@kicorse]

That's the spirit of the phrase "the worst form of government apart from all of the others that have been tried". In a democracy, critical thinking should be the highest priority in education.

[@ShubhamMishrabro]

It also doesn't helps when parties and population support thing which leads to inflation. For example see how many developing countries people and leaders were supporting russian invasion of Ukraine which led to huge inflation. Many don't understand these wars lead to inflation but polarisation has made people blind

[@lordmashie]

TLDR: "Waaa this cost of living crisis is totally my government's fault and definitely not affecting the rest of the world either"

[@dean_l33]

Democracy is only valid when they vote the way I want them to vote

[@navinthehouse4710]

Also the Queensland State elections in Australia

[@lachland944]

And the incumbent’s in wa and the federal election next year will see swings against them

[@benmckernan7296]

Excellent video that answered a question I didn't even know I had

[@jswlprtk]

Partisan push for political and economic stability creates incumbent establishments. Stability and continuity of politics should be bipartisan with some symbolic yet non critical policy proposals to woo the electorate during election campaigning while larger shifts span decades unless it's an unprecedented emergency like wars and pandemics.

[@dankenk]

It is a shift to the right. Rightfully so

[@MrRandom2456]

Depends on the country, in some yes in others a swing to the left. Really depends who was in power before

[@ProsecutorZekrom]

Some governments are genuinely to blame for things being bad (example: the Tories in the UK). But often it’s hard for regular people, who aren’t politically engaged, to make the distinction. The only solution I can see is better political education.

[@maybenations]

It's not that the year was particuralry bad, it's that the situation was getting bad for _so fucking long_ that it managed to erode trust even in usually politically committed people

[@Rosegarden793]

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[@gergmohsen9472]

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[@islaperez1151]

I know this FA, Tracy Britt Cool Consulting but only by her reputation at Berkshire Hattaway; even though she's now involved in managing portfolios and providing investmnt guidance to clients. I have been trying to get in contact since I watched her interview on WSJ last month

[@Rosegarden793]

You can glance her name up on the internet .she's renowned and has quite a following. So it shouldn't be a hassle finding her consulting page.

[@JateStones]

Great share! Out of curiosity, I searched Tracy Britt Cool Consulting online, found her consulting page ranked at the top, and scheduled a call session. I've read many reviews about advisors, but none seem as impressive as hers.

[@stevenvan5104]

Tracy Britt Cool Consulting has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's

[@Ravi9A]

Imagine tagging modi among the neo lib downfall lmao

[@Ironbanner12]

He has some neoliberal economic policies definitely

[@Ravi9A]

@Ironbanner12 not really, unless you abstract that word to meaninglessness

[@nishantmaderna6295]

​@@Ravi9A u don't about Modi then. Modi is liberal. Only media has shows him as far right. Bjp is also not a right wing party. It's mostly a centrist party. There's no right wing in India.

[@Ravi9A]

@@nishantmaderna6295 there are literally no neolibs in india dude. Do you even know who neolibs are?

[@newtonchambo]

Do YOU even know who neolibs are?

[@joewilson3393]

The whole world is on a contrarian arc.

[@andysierra1618]

Like Bill Clinton would have said: It's the economy stupid!

[@EpsilonNPC]

Meanwhile in Indonesia: "GREAT SUCCESS! "

[@Ornitholestes1]

take home message: people are stupid, and are always looking for someone to blame for any real or perceived problem impacting them, no matter whether they are actually responsible or not.

[@DarylSpykerman]

People are not blaming someone else but holding the incumbent government accountable.

[@kass8036]

Your right people are stupid and are looking to point the finger to others you included.

[@runajain5773]

​@@DarylSpykermanyeh he oversimplified it there are factor play to remove that party and select another party

[@AYTM1200]

You're just another disgruntled incumbent memmber most likely.

[@Ornitholestes1]

@@DarylSpykerman If you want to disagree with my use of terminology without any argument, at least do me the curtesy of quoting me correctly. @runajain5773 Oh, I (I assume thats whom you were referring to with "he") am the one who oversimplified? Weird. I could have sworn the person who replied to me gave an even shorter and less telling response, and yours is frankly so jumbled I’m not even totally sure what you are trying to add. I wrote "blame someone", not "blame someone else". The latter implies I meant "blame someone else [other than the incumbent government]", while it should have been fairly clear the entity I suggested was being blamed was indeed the incumbent government itself. Or, if that is the euphemism you prefer, "held accountable". However, I note that it is not accurate to describe it as "holding accountable" if any of the following is true: A: the problem or issue is not actually the fault of the incumbent government, because it was caused by factors beyond their control B: the problem or issue doesn’t actually exist, or is so minor that it would have been considered a non-issue under different circumstances, but is used as a pretext and outlet for dissatisfaction stemming from other factors. C: whatever political alternative has now been voted in has already transparently stated their intent to make whatever issues the incumbents are supposedly being "held accountable" for even worse For example, if you are suggesting the Biden/democratic government was being "held accountable", I am calling BS on that. What exactly did they do or fail to do that they are now being "held accountable for"? "The economy", as so many trumpists claim? The US economy is doing well by conventional standards of economic performance, especially when compared to other countries, and that is largely due to the policies of the very government that is supposedly being "held accountable". It is not doing so well if you are looking at issues of structural inequality and price hikes for consumer goods. However, these are not the fault of the Biden administration, they are much rather the fault of those people voted in to replace it. Inequality is a structural issue in America which Democrats are actually taking steps to address, while Republican free-market ultras staunchly support (and have always supported) measures that are undeniably contributing to further increase it, and economically harm the very people who voted them in. Rising prices are chiefly a result of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, in violation of international law, which is not the fault of Joe Biden or anyone in the incumbent US government, yet its results are being unfairly blamed on them. In fact, policies to reduce reliance on oil and gas, to provide cheaper and more accessible healthcare to everyone, to crack down on corporate greed and to fairly tax the rich would all have tremendously helped the situation, but most of those policies were blocked by republicans, and have been for decades. On the other hand, Trump’s stated plans for tariffs will undeniably increase, rather than decrease, consumer prices (which are a commonly cited reason for dissatisfaction among the electorate), and his stated plans for tax cuts will undeniably benefit the super-rich while harming everyone else. This is not accurately described as "holding accountable", this is accurately described as "blaming", and rather unfair blaming at that. That is not to say none of the incumbent governments who were voted out this year deserved what they got, that just isn’t the reason so many incumbents were kicked out this year, factors beyond those governments’ control clearly played a role in almost all cases. E.g. the UK conservatives certainly did more than enough to warrant the election defeat that they got in 2024, but that UK voters took such a ridiculously long time to decisively vote them out, despite all the obvious lies, corruption, incompetence and chaos the party has subjected their country to since the ridiculous Brexit clusterfuck they started in 2016, shows that they were at best being held accountable accidentally now that other factors have further exacerbated the problems they have caused. You can see from this that the 2024 wave of anti-incumbent bias has nothing to do with holding leaders accountable for anything, and a lot more with expressing their dissatisfaction at the overall situation. Parties have been voted out left and right, and irrespective of their specific sets of policies. If it seems like a specific side of the political spectrum is getting the worse side of the deal this years, that is simply because more of those politicians were voted into governments around 2019-2021, as a result of the otherwise predominant right-wing and conservative parties utter failures in addressing the pandemic and climate emergency. In reality, most of these elections were swung by protest-votes (or protest-abstainees - had Kamala gotten as many votes as Biden did in 2020, she would have won easily) with little regard to reason or reality, who were feeling the economic consequences of a near-global crisis, and were looking at current governments to place blame (whether fairly or not). Basically, if you were in power when Ukraine was invaded and inflation hit, and you did not have a magic solution that fixed everything at no cost to anyone and worked immediately, enough people blamed you to bring on your election defeat, no matter what you said or did. You can also see that in whom else is being blamed almost everywhere, for no rational reason whatsoever, and irrespective of the political parties in government or opposition in the respective countries, namely migrants and environmentalists.

[@Insightful21]

There is a saying that voters may care about other things but economy is their only priority. After such a poor economic period as of recent no one stood a chance.

[@aiswarjyamahapatra1535]

Getting 272 in India is a challenge. Especially with the diverse nature of people across various states. Getting a third term is unprecedented for a Non-INC Govt. Narendra Modi is in uncharted territories and the BJP has did well in the election. Unfortunately, most don't see this as a victory due to exceptionally high expectations from Modi ji as well as over confidence displayed by his party. But the recently concluded state elections in Haryana & J&K have shown that the BJP is well and truly back. More victories likely to come for Modi ji in the future..

[@clot27]

He lost J&K and vote share margin in haryana was 0.6%, by that logic we can say INC lost haryana due to overconfidence?

[@aiswarjyamahapatra1535]

@clot27 Sir, he was never in contention in Kashmir. But let's be honest, he dominated Jammu like never before. About INC, a pathetic performance in J&K, lost Haryana because of their internal divisions. Kudos to Nayab Saini for pulling that one off.

[@clot27]

@@aiswarjyamahapatra1535 So we are not factoring in how whole mainstream media, billionare lobby, elite class, social media it cell, biggest and richest party was behind BJP?

[@eliahabib5111]

Voters don't need long memory to remember inflation at the ballot. A reduction in inflation means that prices are rising slower, not that they don't rise! Prices keep rising uless inflation is negative.

[@NearQuasar]

Deflation is not a good thing. Just look at Japan

[@notsorrybricksanimationstu4917]

Technically Biden got to Old. It would have been a more fun election to watch if Biden and Trump rlly went at each other.

[@shubhmaurya5780]

in India bjp(party in power) vote percentage actually increased it was just that this time the opposition had a larger alliance and from previous election were there was bjp led coalition and congress(main opposition party) led coalition and many third side smaller parties this time actually joined congress led coalition this caused the vote percentage of opposition increased more than bjp led coalition. one important thing is bjp won 240 seats main opposition party won 99 there is still a huge gap between them

[@colts8146]

It turns out infinity migrants, weak national security,and massively deceased purchasing power is not super popular

[@StevieFQ]

Is it even correct to say Kamala was an incumbent. Considering she never won the position of president and the last time she tried to get the nomination she didn't even survive long enough to be part of the finalists in the democratic camp.

[@prenaviousiscto5202]

maybe politicians should, i dont know...actually work toward the good of the people?

[@theotherohlourdespadua1131]

How?

[@angelgallegos199]

@@theotherohlourdespadua1131by not listening to the donors who are mainly multimillionaires and billionaires. Put policies that will benefit the working class and not massive corporations and banks.

[@lilarrin1220]

Well, if the voters would stop flipflopping and actually vote out all the entrenched career politicians trying to keep the status quo, maybe they'd see some change. But no, they have to keep voting for their favorite team (usually to spite the other team) and then complain the system is broken.

[@EmilOsena]

Interestingly, even thou us here in the Philippines is going to have the next presidential election in 2028, the alliances between the current and former incumbent president continues to degrade as the days go by. I'm kinda interested to see who will be in the next presidential race as the former president's daughter is showing so much hostility against the current president that they might knock each other out before the election.

[@polvorosarobm.96]

Yeah, the 2025 Midterm elections will be a litmus test for the Marcos Administration The two questions now is: Can the Marcos Administration countered the Dutertes populist wave? Can the Liberal, Makabayan or other independents can swoop in?

[@GoodWhinger]

Poor New Zealand, left out again. Their incumbent party lost but they didn't get a mention.

[@danielzhang1916]

we barely get any Australia NZ news in Europe and the US, that's probably why

[@mishapurser4439]

Just because inflation goes down doesn't mean prices go back to normal, it just means the speed of price rises has slowed down. Unless your wages go up with inflation, your wallet is still being hurt even after inflation goes down because your cost of living has worsened compared to before the inflation spike.

[@SilverSquare-sm2ex]

same in Mauritius

[@flashsentry1791]

Everything has gotten so expensive. Insurance, cars, homes, cable, cellphones bills, etc. Its squeezing every dollar out of me.

[@E3ECO]

The modern world runs on inflation, so much so that deflation is considered an economic catastrophe. Nations run debt levels so high that inflation is the only way they can remain solvent. In some ways, it really is a house of cards.

[@thadiusthudpucker]

Downsize

[@bigcheesedog2645]

Revenge for the awful covid response the over reach , how ineffective the policies were and how damaging they are. and plenty of the governments were left leaning and had gone wandering into ideological LA LA land. Warm up the resume Justine your next.

[@greenlach7398]

Who left out Australia whose incumbents will only go into minority by a few seats

[@thadiusthudpucker]

The latest polls indicate elbow will be outed

[@BlueFrenzy]

Who reaps the benefits of sowing chaos everywhere? Who is funding chaos and disinformation? Exactly.

[@NearQuasar]

It isn’t always a bad thing, as many of these incumbent leaders were incompetent, corrupt or both

[@dairebulson7122]

Who?

[@sakshambhadoria9998]

Economic concerns and cultural anxieties in a troubled geopolitical landscape have cost the incumbents dearly. They have failed to reassure voters that the economy is not a zero sum game and provide psychological security to them.

[@randomguy-tg7ok]

"They have failed to reassure voters that the economy is not a zero sum game" With the way many parties seem to have been acting, you'd think they're trying to convince voters that economics is a _negative_ sum game.

[@danielzhang1916]

what can they say, "it's not our fault so you should keep voting for us"? they always vote out the party

[@svokxz6435]

The world is in a very important transitional mode just like how my life has been.

[@lokiasgardian]

BJP and BJP supporters didn't bother to vote, that's the only major reason, BJP supporters have realized it and successive state elections have shown it, BJP will achieve single-majority in 2029 election even with a new PM candidate.

[@clot27]

shut up, you guys were doing 400 paar and vote % in 2019 and 2024 elections are same so stop coping, BJP did everything they can but people are getting fed up with them. BJP won because: 1. Very big propoganda machinery 2. Richest party in the world 3. Party with most members in the world 4. Using govt agencies against opposition to jail the leaders 5. Mainstream media campaigning for BJP day and night 6. Ruthless IT cell and whatsapp university selling propoganda 7. Support from billionares and elite class

[@boccobadz]

I don't know about 2020, when you look at Dems vote count this year, something doesn't add up.

[@shabadvaswani5576]

Use correct map of India

[@Moonuuu]

This just proved government should focus on economy.

[@wallysquash3361]

In 2017 my village voted BJP completely, in 2024 we had a sign outside the village that any BJP worker trying to campaign will get beaten up, needless to say no bjp worker came to campaign and they lost in the seat too It was because ours is a village of students preparing for government exams and the incompetent government cant even hold an exam without the paper being leaked

[@sho-m-er5194]

I really hope Congress get their shit together and win in 2029, because if people don't vote for change by ballot they might one day turn to bullets for it instead

[@Avantika005]

There was no lok sabha election in 2017 so stop your propaganda

[@nishantmaderna6295]

Whole village is giving govt exams. Must be dehat. Can't think of anything else other than govt job.

[@wallysquash3361]

@@Avantika005 UP election 2017

[@wallysquash3361]

@@nishantmaderna6295 I would rather live in Dehat where people are nice and simple and not Delhi where people are scammers and rapists

[@jswlprtk]

Does this trend hold true for local elections as well?

[@casslane3932]

in ireland our coalition goverment claims to be confident they are either liers or idiots

[@samuelschonenberger]

Am I glad we don't have an "incumbant" here in Switzerland since 4 of the 5 big parties across the political spectrum form the executive branch. Sure there will always be a few people in government, who fundamentally disagree with my world view but at least people don't vote in as much of a reactionary way amd there is also someone in government, who does agree with my worldview

[@maybenations]

...yet.

[@gillesaboubechara2978]

3:33 "For an actual democratic example of a surviving incumbent party look to Mexico" Look to Italy instead, where the incumbent Italian prime minister Georgia Meloni saw her vote share increased in the EU elections and is leading in the polls since her victory in the general elections. The only incumbent European leader to do so✌🏻✌🏻

[@fxtz-v1e]

Hello, a message from France : the results you show at 1:13 are not that relevants, you should take the number of seat of each party. As it's a local election, not all people vote for the second round because some have already elected their representative, and the strategic voting in place means that the assembly is different than the global results.

[@michaelowino228]

Good video.

[@justins7796]

is an incumbent a fruit or vegetable

[@josephlejarde7957]

It's all about the economy

[@MatthiaGryffine]

Covid is the obvious reason

[@RafaelW8]

Immigration as the main issue. Inflation probably a close second

[@reiudfgq3vrh34ur]

Yeah those are the two biggest reasons

[@GoldenStorm-gs7lx]

Immigration is only a issue for the developed countries. Inflation on the other hand is a universal issue.

[@NearQuasar]

@@GoldenStorm-gs7lxCorruption and economic stagnation played a role in South Africa.

[@MrRandom2456]

​@@GoldenStorm-gs7lx True

[@danielzhang1916]

polls have shown it's the opposite, inflation is always the top priority

[@StevieFQ]

One could argue Biden staying helped Trump? Didn't Trump argue the opposite. Since decreasing the reputation of the other guy is a normal tactic in every political race? Also didn't democrats flatout refuse his position that Biden's withdrawal would hurt his campaign arguing that it didn't change anything?

[@naugiavrilio]

That means only Mexico & Taiwan, two countries where the incumbents are still in power this year. Let's see what will happen in Germany, Canada, and others next year

[@clintonbrills834]

Eagerly waiting for the day TLDR covers Ghanaian politics

[@AYTM1200]

NPP is done for, their's no excuse for prices to 4X in 8 years. I could care less about C0VID and Russian Ukraine war.

[@syedhoque8009]

Prabowo Subianto, Donald Trump, Keir Starmer - common denominator inflation.

[@pdannysan13]

Maybe as incumbents you shouldn't do stupid and overconfident stuff?

[@IulianYT]

In Moldova there was a "close" race, but still, incumbent won. There wasn't really any viable option, like from the 11 candidates, at least 9 have had ties to ruzzia. And runner-up was actually the worst, with most connections to criminal world out of them all.

[@ohmygodsteve5224]

People are growing even more tired of capitalism but don’t know how to vote on that anger so just vote anti incumbent It’s the 5yo logic of : If things bad now, vote party that isn’t ruling now

[@CaptainTodger69]

i think only the idiots are growing tired of capitalism. but unfortunately there are a lot of them in europe

[@reiudfgq3vrh34ur]

It's not capitalism although some of it is. Immigration and other topics are also among the reasons

[@nanokhuma419]

All those capitalist policies like spending and printing excessive amounts of money on other countries and their problems while leaving local problems to fester. Totally the fault of capitalists.

[@ZachBobBob]

@@reiudfgq3vrh34ur Immigration is an easy scapegoat politicians use to distract from the real problem...which is late-stage capitalism.

[@cemdursun]

Capitalism is not the issue, feudal capitalism is

[@iota_jian]

That Japan clip was brutal 😭

[@BET-BOY]

Global inflation doesn't explain why people would vote out local governments. There is no local economic incentive to removing a government that is doing relatively well. Since the global political landscape is comprised of local actors, it would make sense (if thinking globally) to favor more globally active governments in response to a global crisis, but this isn't the same as just voting out incumbents.

[@Awesomewithaz]

Poor Americans voting for tariffs is sad. Hope you like paying more so American business owners continue to do better

[@chickenwings273]

Did you guys just forget the third largest democracy in the world just had an election earlier this year?

[@surfacepro3328]

Because austerity driven politics while having a system in place that massively favours people who already have obscene amounts of wealth is just objectively bad. This applies to every major western country

[@PASH3227]

Dude, under Joe Biden he signed a covid recovery bill (American Rescue Plan Act), an infrastructure bill (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act), a bill to fund climate change research and lower drug prices (Inflation Reduction Act), and a bill to stimulate semiconductor manufacturing (CHIPS Act). That's not austerity. That's stimulus. One can argue that the stimulus created the inflation we're experiencing, but calling it austerity is FALSE.

[@carloscamejo7532]

Ireland is going to the polls in 2 weeks... Maybe Sinn Féin makes government?

[@kommusuryadevpatel3133]

BJP Setback Was Due To Entire Coalition Of All Opposition Parties In India Still BJP Is Single Largest Party With Highest Vote Share

[@eknoorsinghM]

Doesn't change the point that they lost vote share due to inflation , and that's the point of this video

[@kommusuryadevpatel3133]

@eknoorsinghM BJP 2019 Vote Share 37.3% BJP 2024 Vote Share 36.5% After 10 Years Of Anti Incumbency And Covid This Is The Drop

[@raghavawasthi9593]

@@eknoorsinghM bro, please tell me your supplier, I want that stuff.