Why Betting Exchanges Don't Like Winners (But Do Tolerate Them)

[@Shane-by2lh]

Cheers Caan for another short interesting video and theories with regards winners on exchanges, Actually I think it safe to say that Betfair Sportsbook was born for the simple reason of offering worse odds to the customer and offsetting it against the margin on the exchange, meaning that whatever the current exchange price, mr software plugs in a few ticks, a few well maybe a lot of ticks off and bang there is their profit margin secured for shite prices on the sports book. not 100% but something along those lines!

[@alanhaynes9672]

Obviously they don’t like winners. If they did, the premium charge wouldn’t exist. And remember....it’s not really betfair anymore, it’s paddypower

[@Grafiix_]

Liked n subscribed !! all the way from the land down under aka Australia !! I've got my mates into watching your videos and now they're hooked aswell !! Cheers brother for the videos and knowledge means alot bro

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

Awesome! Thank you!

[@kirinsama2959]

The dude is a sk'm'artist. Does all the publicity in the world for k 'r' ooks like BetInAsia and trashes all legitimate great options such as betfair, betway, betdaq and bet365. Like man, do you know that orbit exchange/mollybet being offered on BetInAsia itself doesn't actually even exist. They just dumped a lot of resources to make it seem like a legit thing and made a good website. Very sad to see.

[@zzhughesd]

They don't like, they ' tolerate ' winners, we need a proper PROPER video on this, it is the classic THEM against US, almost 1970's I never lived through , The Business Owners Versus the Unions

[@LucaGarzeli]

I'm from Spain. Spanish government takes up to 50% of my net winnings each year, Betfair takes 2%, wallets takes another 1.5% & one more time Betfair takes another high % in my middle-term winnings. So, I'm trading thinking I'm Xiaomi, betting a lot, trying to win with a very low margin to live 😂

[@raemanmusic]

It's ridicolous. The Netherlands is not much different. Well the rate is not 50%, but still 30.1%. Sad part is, you pay gambling tax, you pay income tax. In the worse case scenario here you could make lets say 200k a year and you pay premium charges, gamble tax & income tax. And you'll also have to pay ( Idk the exact English for for this) but basically a high net worth tax which is also around 2%. Since you're from Spain I suggest you to use Orbit Exchange or a broker for Betfair.

[@midnightdragon8812]

Can’t u use a vpn ?

[@higher8614]

How do you Make profit? Please tell me

[@eprep9745]

I’m in the UK and my winnings are tax free

[@Graphing_the_Globe]

​@@midnightdragon8812 no you can't coz if they find out they ban you

[@raemanmusic]

I seriously start to think if there is a way to run a Exchange honestly for the customer. I've been thinking many times of starting a Exchange business because I feel like there is still a lack of fulfillment for traders (especially those who are winning). I totally get that companies are here in the first place to make money and to be successful, but I wonder if this is a greed thing or something that can get a company out of business.

[@danielstone9404]

I had the same type of 'pipe dreams' in my early years as a software engineering student, I guess liquidity is the key: and thinking outside the box, from the sound of some of the comments, the niche is slowly being strangled out of feasibility.

[@paulnyagini]

Is definitely a greed thing if they were honest with as that they are truly an exchange and is definitely can get the company out of business if they didn't tell as the truth that they are just bookie and not an exchange like they claim.👍

[@pradeep2103]

What if someone just places a single bet per game and successful? Exchanges hate this type of punters too?

[@stmh9660]

Using exchanges for regular, straight betting is better because you generate more commission. In traditional betting you can easily get 100 (€/£) so the commission generated directly through that bet is way better than someone winning 100 in different events. Also you can lose those 100, or 200, that's irrelevant because that person that took your bet might be trading, so he might throw more money to hedge his position, that doesn't generate decent commission. I trade in-play and regular betting in the exchanges so I think I'm a likeable customer and I'm most likely to never get extra-charged, I don't use Betfair points either, I pay 6.5% commission on winnings, that's a nice cut I think compared to the regular 4%. The trick to avoid getting premium charged is generating decent commissions with regular bets and trading in a minor degree when compared to the betting activity

[@kirinsama2959]

This 👍👍💯💯

[@kirinsama2959]

The dude is a scammer. Does all the publicity in the world for crooks like BetInAsia and trashes all legitimate great options such as betfair, betway, betdaq and bet365. Like man, do you know that orbit exchange/mollybet being offered on BetInAsia itself doesn't actually even exist. They just dumped a lot of resources to make it seem like a legit thing and made a good website. Sad.

[@rickyh1301]

I just opened an account with a bookie and I tried to get my sign up bonus with company and they replied " Due to a change in UK gambling commission regulation, we are no longer able to credit the bonus to your account. This is beyond our control and as we have a duty of care to our customers, we must adhere to these regulatory changes with immediate effect. Is this some kind of joke? It's getting absolutely ridiculous. Duty of care? Utter nonsense

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

What was the bonus? Not heard of that one...

[@doctormoobbc]

If this is a problem with exchanges, then who is the best out of the options? Is it possible to be profitable in the long-term or is the deck stacked against you?

[@joshr2684]

Sadly Its all going to become irrelevant . I had a call from the responsible gambling team after depositing just £10. I am sick and tired of being asked to produce bank statements and source of funds just to place a bet. Its becoming tedious. All because of do gooders who want to interfere in my life. Take me back 15 years when you could do what you wanted as an adult

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

£10 ? Thats shocking...

[@fender1000100]

£10 you must have done something wrong. I've been depositing and withdrawing for years

[@Rhino11111]

Full of shit mate 😂 literally signed up to over 75 bookies in my life and never once had to produce a document other than passport or driving license

[@JayInplay]

Nicely explained Caan! I've been saying a very similar same thing for years and no one believes me. it's true exchanges make far more commission in the long run, from punters over successful traders. The premium charges are really just designed to try to relevel those long term profits to a certain degree.

[@starbuck1701]

What a difference a few months make , having read your recent twitter tweet

[@RockinRaven96]

what did he say?

[@johnoldroyd5244]

I still think betfair offer a different class of product to the others although customer services are worst out their.

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

It certainly has market share of liquidity, and is the most advanced, but you are right they need to toe the line a bit more.

[@billyhawkins9273]

Question... what's the 2nd best exchange behind Betfair? (1.Not getting banned 2.Software 3.Prices 4.Cash out system 5.Charges)

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

It's a good question, won't answer right now as looking at something else

[@clintrichardsonclintfromny203]

Had an account with never more than $400 USD in it at Matchbook. Send in all the info asked for and got approved. Was enjoying it for over a month. Then things got super strange. Im not even ahead on the account, and all of sudden I get an email requesting more identification and a significant amount of tax return documents and if I didnt comply my account would be closed. I sent the passport copy asked for but said I draw the lines at the tax returns and this has become more laborious than enjoyable. I said I could see the request had my account approached 5 figures but to instead close my account and transfer my remaining balance to my Skrill. What I did not expect is a lengthy ghosting of my request to close the account, after being locked out. Not a good look so far gents. I hope to hear from you soon.

[@elasticharmony]

This problem is solved with Blockchain, liquity is no longer a problem and with the various organization possible the players basically govern the site/app. All but the most gross moves a bookie company can throw at you is stopped cold with defi Blockchain, also the currency is truer actually holding value if not gaining.

[@therebel4332]

Someone once said "Don't understimate the mugs" and I didn't get it at first.... But we need the mugs... otherwise who can we take for a mug if there aren't any....

[@johngotti8549]

What if someone is betting a lot (and winning a lot) but not pulling money out?

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

the same

[@eugenplet5542]

What's a good betting exchange site in Canada?

[@paldavi2876]

Hi Can .is it just me has Betfair exchange slowed down since it's crash last week .

[@zzhughesd]

Yes an Exchange, an exchange isn't a business or a shop or a bookkeeper, they shouldn't care, they have somebody take the other side of the trade!? confused, didn't know they took more fees from large winners either

[@minginify]

Did you not bother to listen to the video.

[@olayinkadamilare1381]

Amazing video,Can i start betting with MATCHBOOK are they reliable??

[@jiti5034]

Exchanges should not mind, they are exchanges and you are not trading against them

[@nirmalale2751]

will they close my account if i keep winning. I am really worried Caan? Because betting exhange is source of my income.

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

No they won't, just exchanges see premium charges (another vid on the channel about it) but sportsbooks may see gubbings.

[@jlva5847]

What's your strategy to keep winning? I would love to pay the premium charge)?

[@fairsquare5316]

@@jlva5847 The strategy is lay when the price is low and then back when the price is high, make the profit between the two. Do this consistently!

[@AylaFMD]

Would you get banned from bookies for placing bets just using fundamental analysis of sport your betting on and making good wins long term rather than using a mathematical strategy?

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

yes

[@ΔΗΜΗΤΡΗΣΜΗΤΣΕΑΣ-ρ1κ]

In conclusion,if you are a successful winner are they gonna close your account or they just add extra charges?

[@alanhaynes9672]

Hi Caan, Not sure if you already do, But have you looked into being a tipster on Copybet?

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

Nope, the info would be delayed wouldnt it? There are lots of services like this.

[@alanhaynes9672]

@@CaanBerryProTrader I use it as a tipster. Basically your bets/trades are precisely copied onto the betfair accounts of those following you. (At a ratio they can afford) you then receive a % of that persons subscription fee. Effectively you place your bets everyday as you already do, and make extra commission on top and pay them nothing for the privilege. Do u know of other similar services

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

But the prices will be gone?

[@johngotti8549]

Will they tax you if you win a lot but do not take your money out and just recycle it.

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

yes

[@darrylkassle361]

I think it’s not really liquidity as long as people are betting they don’t care they add the premium fees because they can. Does not matter how much liquidity is there they still get there percentage win or lose. I don’t get what you are saying exactly. They only get paid if bets are made ( besides certain fees which I believe they levy because they can- hey our platform is making you a constant income give me a little extra and they do) . I really don’t get it give me an exact example .

[@barrygallagher3306]

Interesting video. I suppose in a way if you are a consistent winner you should view premium charge as a cost of business and presumably some of it is used to attract more liquidity to the pool etc. Still not ideal though.

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

Certainly, the upper levels are a killer though.

[@tomjones9934]

Not sure where the premium charge goes, but I guess its better to pay this than getting barred. I watch videos of punters who have been around for years and they all say that liquidity is much lower on betfair these days. I know people will disagree but I think think softwares such as bet angel which allow people who often have limited knowledge about sport to win are not good for the general betfair community. Remember that for every winner there is a least one loser. Eventually betfair could be left with a majority of traders and bots who will be competing against each other and winnings will be hard to come by if the casual punter is no longer around in numbers.

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

Yep.

[@DanielSong39]

The prices are miles better in Betfair than they are in the sportsbooks. Why would the casual punter leave? So they can get worse odds?

[@derekboyt3383]

The only reason they wouldn’t like value winners is if they are acting as exchange and sports book at the same time.

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

No, its winners take money out the platform. They don't want that.

[@derekboyt3383]

@@CaanBerryProTrader - Perhaps they will take money out of the platform; however, if they are consistently winning then it stands to reason that they will continue feeding volume into the system and extract some out at the same time. This should in fact narrow the margin between back and lay and actually stimulate additional wagering by everyone.

[@therebel4332]

Nobody likes a winner that's the point, you don't want to be getting in gambles with people who know what the feck they're doing. And without the "mugs" you wouldn't have a chance of winning anyway, the platform needs the mugs and recreational players otherwise it wouldn't exist, a healthy platform is 97-98% "mugs and recreational players", 1-2% traders and the few big winners who take money from the platform as Caan says. The "mugs" are way more important than the "winners"... Way more important.

[@DanielSong39]

@@therebel4332 But the mugs get better prices at exchanges than the sportsbooks

[@alexgroushko3142]

Ideally the exchange want everyone to break even. Money keeps going round and they earn on it. Successful traders/ punters take a profit and remove money from the pool and continual losers will eventually stop. When you talked about FI you said there was no tangible asset involved, the same is true of these platforms, so for every winning bet there has to be a loser. Eventually those losers will pack it in and then no one can win.

[@DanielSong39]

Nah the prices are way better on the exchanges than they are in the books By that logic no one would bet at sportsbooks ever

[@zzhughesd]

Oh those that regularly gain from either ARB, getting better price, or spotting value. Yes as a motor dealer I hate it when I set price wrong and somebody burgles the car off me, profit or not, there was more profit to be had

[@SpannerAT34]

Super video

[@MovieTicketRecaps]

A betting exchange is only suppose to make juice off a bet so they shouldn't care which party wins. Man the greed is real.

[@albertcardy]

can we join orbit

[@stephenmorgan6507]

I stuck at it for 14 months as a value bettor. You can get value and win a steady amount but TBH I switched to Forex in the end as the liquidity is infinite really. The trick to making money with it though is not to confuse it with betting as it is a different animal.

[@johnoldroyd5244]

Bore of Stephen

[@fender1000100]

They will tolerate because they get their cut.

[@toserstradeonsporters4014]

You got any windows in that place?🤣

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

Sure, 3.

[@toserstradeonsporters4014]

@@CaanBerryProTrader How about a nice plant and a piccie on the wall. Spruce it up a bit😂

[@danielstone9404]

@@toserstradeonsporters4014 Maybe a framed Celtic jersey? Or Port Adelaide

[@davidorton4487]

This morning I told Paddy Power that I wanted to close my account permanently. Unfortunately, they tricked me into agreeing a self exclusion, which I had no idea what that meant at the time. Subsequently, I realised my Betfair and Sky bet was automatically closed as well, which I did not want. I’ve explained that I only wanted to close my Power account and that I’ve NEVER EVER had a gambling problem in my life.They have told me because I have agreed there is nothing else they can do. Please can you help. Dave

[@mrchico2621]

Why did you ask to close it?

[@DanielSong39]

Their reasoning makes no sense. You generate volume by offering great prices. Winners have incentive to increase their trading volume by offering competitive prices with low bid-ask spreads. Exchanges make money from greater volume. Unless, that's not how things really work and the books are "shadow" customers of the exchanges and losing money to the winners. Hmm...

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

It's not that they don't make money from commission, its that they don't make as much as they want. Sportsbooks are far higher margin, they want some of that. I also suspect you might be right about seeding their own party.

[@DanielSong39]

@@CaanBerryProTrader In my experience at TradeSports, as my account increased I created more and more markets with greater depth and definitely helped generate more liquidity and better prices TradeSports RIP (I haven't found a good replacement since; I live in the US)

[@nicerides9224]

I assumed the bookmakers layed off some bets on the exchanges long ago. If they are acting as market makers as well then you'd think they'd have a wide enough spread to not lose money on it.

[@arrjay3814]

Surely you are sponsored... Sponsored by Superdry 🤣

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

As if haha.

[@thegeek2637]

No he really does wear that shite. :D

[@arrjay3814]

@@thegeek2637 a lot :-)

[@sloughpacman]

You'll never find the best strategies in videos or comment sections. If you have a method for nailing 20% returns on arbs daily, and have kept the relevant bookmaker and exchange accounts open for years, then you are hardly going to give details ;-)

[@CaanBerryProTrader]

Thats a fair point :)