Why Comps Are NEVER 100% Reliable & How We Handle This Challenge

Geoff talks with T-Pott about Card Comps.
Follow Geoff:
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Companies Geoff Founded:
Sports Card Investor: www.sportscardinvestor.com
Market Movers: www.marketmoversapp.com
Three Five Two: www.threefivetwo.com
NoviAMS: www.noviams.com
iLS Network: www.ilsnetwork.com

[@gianvit0]

T Potts Data Dive is the best sports card content on youtube 💯

[@mangobango6970]

Or......SpitballinCards which I like slightly more. But data dive is on point too.

[@gianvit0]

@@mangobango6970 just subbed to them today Good group of guys except i don’t collect baseball and i feel left out lol

[@jacobfain6504]

​@@mangobango6970Spitballin cards is awesome! Wish there was a channel like that about football and basketball cards also.

[@t-pott4504]

thanks, guys!

[@anthonyspizzirri7403]

I agree I watch all shows he is on. Thanks for the content T Pott

[@PhilthyCards]

Honestly, this is really more simple and straightforward then your conversation would lead a casual card collector to believe. It can be resolved in this patented two-step process - 1. If its a card that I'm selling, that most recent outlier comp is 100% accurate. This player is going to the moon and you should buy now before you miss the boat. 2. If its a card that I'm buying, that most recent outlier comp is 100% fake. The card is only realistically worth the lowest of the last 5 comps because we all know that player's card are in a free fall. You better sell now to recoup what you can.

[@Craytown]

Great discussion, and a good reminder that a card is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. As Marshall Fogel said, Collect What You Love, and you'll never lose.

[@chrisolivo6591]

The problem with comps is everyone lumps them together with every card. Comps give a good gauge of the market, but don’t take into account centering, eye appeal, even something as whether it’s in a new or old PSA holder.

[@redmatmedia]

I agree and think comps is kind of like arbitration in baseball. If someone else buys a card overvalued it changes the market and if someones just wants to get out of a card and sales cheap...it is very difficult

[@CardZooSportsCards]

Good stuff, thanks for sharing and appreciate all the content you've contributed to the Sports Card Community. Re: the 33 minute mark, removing that card as an "outlier" might not be 100% accurate because eBay doesn't let buyers pay for offers made through the "Your Funds" balance. In other words, the price alone being higher than other items listed doesn't dictate the reliability of a sale.....if I see 4 results for a card I want, and the one I want is $100 more than the others, the only way for me to use my current "Your Funds" balance on ebay to pay for the card I want is to buy it at the "Buy it Now" price. If I make an offer, ebay forces me to pay with a credit/debit/paypal method. So some sales that appear to be outliers in that occasion may be true sales if the buyer experienced this same thing. Ya'll rock!

[@Bigkaluna]

It comes down to what you want to spend on a card

[@redmatmedia]

the other difficult thing is how do you price a 1/1 or something that is /40 but there are only two PSA 10's and neither one has sold? I guess like so many things it is only worth what someone is willing to pay

[@controversialcardchannel]

Depends on the demand for the player and the card brand.

[@JohnNP3]

Great conversation! One of the best I’ve listened to recently. Such a fascinating topic.

[@williampotts7205]

Here's one snippet too, that makes cards and their prices different compared to comps..... 2- 8's can have the same grade, but look extremely different and be definitely worth different prices. Buying the card appearance not the grade can drastically change the value. (under-graded compared to over-graded) Especially when dealing with older or vintage cards. Some like centered cards and don't mind tipped corners, while someone else doesn't mind the centering but the surface needs to be sharp and color vibrant. Lots of factors go into the pricing and eventually the sale of the card. Not just comps. It's a starting point and can get the conversation started.

[@BrentonPercy]

You guys should do one of these comps discussion videos every year. Feels like you've only scratched the surface.

[@matthewdouglas4500]

You won’t get this amount of transparency from many other companies. Kudos

[@angelou1]

T POTT the man. Perfect combo you guys should do this more.

[@forourtroopssake7373]

Sir, my guys and I, learn so much from your videos. Thank you for helping me, help them. 👍🇺🇸

[@christopherkanotus4980]

Sports Cards just like everything else, are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them. Comps can be used as a guide but more factors go into a sale than recent sales. Timing, location, on season, off season, social factors, all kinds of thongs.

[@TheLegendofBrettMorrison]

yeah but the Parallells would be listed after the sets in Beckett... and it would Day 10x-20x Base... or whatever... or 50x- 60x base card set etc etc .

[@lapp3r30shockeycardflips]

Great discussion guys!!!

[@damiangrzywacz6739]

That Tyler nethercock guy needs to get his own channel.

[@JKKollectables]

At the end of the day, it really just comes down to what someone is willing to pay for the card AND what you're willing to sell it for. You have to consider your target audience. If you're just looking to move the card quickly, expect the price to be below what you "want" to sell it for. If you're looking for "top dollar" on the card, you need the right buyer that really wants the card, and as a result, will take you longer to sell the card.

[@tipofthemittcollectablesan9248]

I'd assume Dr. Beckett would completely disagree that pricing was super simple back when the Beckett Price Guide was king. 🤷‍♂️

[@REBroker1966]

Great subject. Need a short version that I can share with buyers at shows I set up at…🤔

[@williampotts7205]

I hear that. Seems I hear too many potential buyers say that they aren't paying or even looking if the cards are above comps. Then buy a 9 instead of a 10!!!

[@jayguiliano2310]

Without a comp, people selling/buying sports appear to be lost - to me that means on both buy and sell side, no one knows what they are doing unless told by a prior spot sales price; therein is the problem

[@chunter3882]

I just bought a Alex Ovechkin Autograph Card /99 for $127. I would Never sell it for that. I wouldn't want to sell it for $250. It doesn't matter what the comps say. I know it's worth more.

[@WilliamOrloff]

Great post… thanks 🙏

[@m1j9s79]

comps dont take into account liquidity and scarcity. if you cant buy the card currently for the last comp online, then the last comp is invalid.

[@bthojh9849]

No matter what. It always comes back to comps.

[@joelkaplan2157]

Great video

[@terryalexander563]

So why not use fixed pricing only? I'm just trying to understand better, not questioning what you do.

[@angelou1]

T POTT makes the math, math.

[@jude999]

The market cannot lie.

[@etlnyr74]

grading has been a thing for a long time,theres more of it now but grading was around back then!

[@altonT]

I don't sell. I will trade for something I want but I am not into making money doing resales. I do want a value that is realistic for insurance purposes. Everything over $100 I have a picture of the card, both sides.

[@ryanra44]

T-Pot with the Estonia 🇪🇪 shout out 💪🏻

[@t-pott4504]

🙌🏻 🎉

[@dazzzzaaa]

Curious, why dont you just put a page of how much you will pay for that card? I mean since its just a reference of how much is my card is worth? I think giving a general market pricing is more work than just showing me your buy list.

[@jayguiliano2310]

is it fair to say that people are not very good at actually valuing a card, given that they need so many data points about prior sales, that a confidence level is reached only because of prior sales not because of talent-based value estimation by the individual?

[@terryalexander563]

I don't think Ebay's auction information is accurate for values. there are too many variables. I don't use that information if I enter in manually. I use the average of the last 3 fixed pricing sales.

[@petrosemmanouil2149]

Whatnot is absolutely a place where we shouldn't incorporate comps. People are consistently buying 2x. Whatnot is a scam tool.

[@TheLegendofBrettMorrison]

How do we base our Cards Value on How Bad Somebody needs money ??? just because so and so is bout to take a trip with his GF and buying a ring 💍 or somethin so they are liquidating their collection... and hes SalingOut... doesn't mean I'm going to sale my same card for His Price... cuz I. staying Single and keeping my Collection ETC ETC... but I will take an average of the last 5-10 comp sales.

[@REBroker1966]

Way too many factors involved in a supposed eBay comp. The seller feedback and location, time and day of auction end, flaws in the card. Comps suck. Everyone wants below the lowest comp. Card prices are like the only asset in the world that has not gone up due to inflation…🤔

[@KC-sr5fc]

A card is only worth what someone is willing to pay

[@Sqwack27]

Funny how the influencers want deals at card shows I’ll take Geoff here for instance (Can we go lower while doing a deal.) walk into Geoff’s card shop, nope, no haggling. CC2 getting the deal done at reduced comps, walk into his shop, nope!! Hypocrisy is the driving factor of the state of the hobby and the reasoning you have so many shady character out there

[@muhdulahdarula2818]

Fleeeeer

[@bubblesnz1059]

You cant compare a business to an individual.... thats super disingenuous and all sales are voluntary

[@Sqwack27]

@@muhdulahdarula2818 😂😂😂😂😂

[@Sqwack27]

@@bubblesnz1059 You put way too much much faith in these influencers ….

[@terryalexander563]

His graded cards are much lower than I've seen them anywhere.

[@SkinnyVinnie]

He realizes it’s a 2 way street right? Not just when it benefits him?

[@JohnDoeDeadhead420]

Informercials on youtube

[@davidlewis3819]

Comps need to be replaced with a “landed cost” calculation that better reflects what others actually paid for the card. A $3 card that someone paid $5 in shipping to receive means a buyer is willing to pay $8 for that card, not $3. A $2000 high end card likely cost the buyer over $2100 with tax and shipping included. Buyers tend to forget or ignore these elements when discussing the market price for a card. I understand that combined shipping exists along with some tax exemptions, but more often than not these are real buyer costs.

[@bobjohnson7294]

Unless you own a card shop who cares! You might make a few thousand, but you’re not gonna pay a mortgage with sports cards

[@bigblazecollects]

A CARD IS WORTH WHAT SOMEONE IS WILLING TO PAY. Comps should just be a soft guideline to give you an idea of how much a card is worth not something set in stone

[@controversialcardchannel]

Wrong!

[@bigblazecollects]

@@controversialcardchannel ok so just wrong not gonna elaborate or nothing to elaborate with

[@controversialcardchannel]

@bigblazecollects I used Elon Musk 's Tesla cars as an example. Read my comments. May the hobby be kind to you.

[@montana01]

All depends how fast you want to move it too. Patience can pay off… or works the other way too.

[@sweikel7012]

They are worth whatever the last comp was

[@RawJordanCardCollector]

Do these guys not know that Beckett price guys still exist ?

[@72jmunoz]

to many seller's in ths hobby not enough collectors sellers selling to sellers who sell to other selers then whatnot were you can literally get cards for Penny's depleating the value of thease cards to quick sheesh heading for a crash soon

[@controversialcardchannel]

Told people in the hobby 3 years ago that comps aren't card values. I argued with every last one of ya'll ( probably new people) that the card value is already determined by the manufacturer. It's like a company that makes clothes and sells them or makes cars and sells them. You think Elon Musk is going to let you tell him how much his Tesla is worth??? Comps are not card values, they are card SALES. That's it. Card values is already baked in..... but it's up to YOU to find out the true card value based on various factors, such as card type, numbered or parallel, base or insert, grades, etc..but hey, the hobby is learning. No market this young ( in a relative sense) is perfect until age does away with the "wrinkles" of the market. I'll say this... Beckett did have the right idea.

[@johnwaynecollection]

I had a argument with a kid about the idea of Value VS Price. This kid kept telling me comps are the value of each card. lol I told him the "value" and the "price/comps" are two different conversations. There's intangibles in collectibles too. For example: Just because Lukas Rookie sold for $500 last week doesn't mean that's its "value" today because there hasnt been another sale. The intangible fact that he's going to the finals next week proves my point. Me asking for a higher price was something he could not grasp, or the idea is worth more. This is just an example. We were debating the value of high-end Lebrons. He said hes a data dev at Cardladder and used that to prove his point for the debate lol. Hes a data nerd. Only sees the numbers, not the emotional value. Some people have "vision", some people just see what's directly in front of them. That's what separates the avg joes from the pros in anything in life.

[@controversialcardchannel]

@johnwaynecollection I completely understand. The value of Luca's rookies is organically going to grow at this point in time thus his price point will be moving. Seeing value requires vision. Seeing price requires a simple data dive.