Why half of all Premier League transfers fail

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When your team makes a big signing you are filled with hope, and expectation that this new player will transform your fortunes and push your team to the next level. But it doesn’t always work like that. In fact, according to research it doesn’t work like that 50% of the time.
Jon Mackenzie analyses this research and applies it to the biggest Premier League transfers made during the 2022/23 season.
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#Transfers #PremierLeague #Football

[@Mase1591]

The interpersonal aspect is so overlooked (understandable considering we never truly know what goes on behind closed doors) but it's probably the biggest determining factor in whether a transfer works out or not. To take your Scamacca example: there's been a few reports that a big reason he and West Ham's other big signings from abroad took ages to settle was that Mark Noble retired in the summer and his replacement as club captain, Declan Rice, did a horrible job of helping them integrate into the dressing room environment/life in a new country. Captaincy is one of those things at football clubs that seems like it's superficial and easy to not take seriously, but there's a lot of soft skills involved and it's more important off the pitch than on. Even a basic thing like languages spoken is massively underplayed. If I were running a Premier League academy, I'd be drilling the need for second language acquisition into young players. If you could get to a conversational level in French/Spanish/Portuguese, you could speak to the overwhelming majority of foreign players/coaches/managers that come to England and you'd make yourself invaluable in the squad as a bridge between different parts of the dressing room.

[@Iron-Bridge]

I like your point about second language acquisition. Great point ☝️

[@GuinessOriginal]

You’d think that West Ham wood have continued to employ someone like Mark Noble to cry on doing those types of off the field activities.

[@GuinessOriginal]

@@Iron-Bridgethe problem with that is, owners and chairman will see a second language as making their academy players more desirable abroad and giving them greater options to seek playing opportunities elsewhere. Look at the success sancho and Bellingham have had at Dortmund.

[@brenolelis1883]

I think the importance of interpersonality is having a revival right now, Ancelotti being a great example of how a good relationship with and between the players can be as important as the tactical aspect. We Brazilians are having this discussion right now with the "relacionismo" of Fernando Diniz having succeeded in the first half of the season and his takeover as manager of the seleção.

[@iamheretopleaseyou]

very good point, I come from Czech Republic and a lot of our players used to flop due to the fact that they just could not understand anyone properly (Poborsky in ManU f.e.) even now, in 2023 when elementary schools have to teach you english and better ones have another language as optional we still have players that flop and come back and say how a factor was "missing the Czech dressing room atmposhere" I always wonder how come I get that this has to be an issue you need to get in front of and professional footballers, coaches etc. just underestimate the importance On Scamacca, I just don't get how West Ham transfer policies are set. If you take how good Haller was before he joined and continues to prove after he left. Why did they buy a player that does not fit the style of play? How can that happen, specially two times over and both record fees for the club. It is actually totally criminal failure and if I were Hammers fan I would be demanding some heads rolling for that.

[@RichMitch]

Kalvin looking very guilty there

[@slayingroosters4355]

It's just the British journalists sucking him off despite his shocking season 💀😂

[@TheDarkKnightRacist]

@@slayingroosters4355 well at least Man City succeed on relegating Leeds by stole their key player.

[@GuinessOriginal]

@@slayingroosters4355the same journalists who were slating Grealish last season?

[@michaelrichardson6125]

@@TheDarkKnightRacistby stole ? Did you ever go to school ?

[@ewancartney9360]

Well rn he’s stealing a living so it’s understandable

[@YoshiJoshi_]

Which makes it all the more bizarre that clubs view their Academy players as profit centres for sale, rather than a lower risk option to improve their own sides. A number of those variable factors can be eliminated when you have 5-10 years of knowledge of players (people!), an existing connection to a club's culture and an Academy that can develop players in a philosophy that aligns with your first team

[@maciejbala477]

I feel like every club with a decent youth system misses out on a ton of value by not giving youngsters enough of a chance. Sure, they often don't turn out that good, but maybe they could if they developed

[@AP-o2]

Real Sociedad does this really well

[@ifstar3]

​@@AP-o2this example tells you why, big teams don't trust young players, they need to win, unlike real sociedad.

[@Growlizing]

The club philosophy changes every 2 years because they change managers and the sporting directors are clearly not prioritized.

[@LordSeth-hf8ew]

i agree entirely, this is why clubs philosophy should always be larger than the managers

[@bungaIowbill]

1:38 You can only compute the joint probability by multiplying the separate probabilities like that for independent random variables. Obviously, these are not independent: if a player doesn't fit the style, the manager is less likely to like them. If they have fitness issues, they will likely not be as good as thought. If the player is not as good as thought, it is more likely that the current player is better. Etc

[@chchch.1212]

came here to make the same comment. probably in reality they look at a set of (as much as possible) uncorrelated markers..

[@ugoeze7360]

You beat me to it.

[@mattbyrne8202]

How would you calculate it?

[@bungaIowbill]

@@mattbyrne8202 The only thing we can do in general is to give bounds: the upper bound is 90% (assuming all events are perfectly correlated), while the lower bound is 40% (assuming each negative outcome is always separate) -- each event happens with probability 100-10%, so all of them happen with probability at least 100-6*10%. This lower bound is called "the union bound," which is a very useful technique as it allows you to handle any probability distribution with basically no info. Even though the bound is crude, it can often be enough. To compute it exactly, you would need to know the joint probability distribution. If you look at each event separately, you have the so-called marginal distributions. For independent random variables, the joint distribution is the product of the marginal distributions. For dependent random variables, you need to consider conditional probabilities, giving answers to questions like: what is the probability that the manager doesn't like the player, given that the player does not fit the style?

[@jacobweddell2438]

This is arguable and depends on your interpretation of the wording of those variables e.g. the manager 'liking' them could mean on a personal level, which you could argue is independent from style of play, 'fitness' could relate to injuries and not talent or skill etc.

[@mehdiahsan4042]

Jon "Mackerels are considered some of the most nutritious fishes. They're an excellent source of protein, vitamins B2,3,4 and B12 and Vitamins" Mackenzie

[@hb3393]

well damn, that take on Fofana aged well

[@bradd__]

I think brighton does this very well that's why they buy low risk players because in everything u only have about 10% ends up working and sometimes the 10% end up overarching and the 90% are just average

[@jebus89]

I'd have loved Jon to look at Damsgaard. I remember being really excited that Brentford signed him and their recruitment has been one of their stand out qualities, so it's interesting that he's not worked out so far.

[@fpldirectory6753]

Doesn't he have a health condition?

[@Don_Dewitt]

Could come good this season

[@megamega5146]

It seems to me that he played well when they were playing more attacking and were dominating the ball , but once they were under pressure from a more possession based side then he struggled

[@TheDarkKnightRacist]

dude, relax, it's Brentford we are talking about, even Ivan Toney can be a star there, give him time

[@TheDarkKnightRacist]

dude, relax, it's Brentford we are talking about, even Ivan Toney can be a star there, give him time

[@yong-haotan6576]

The success of transfer is a coin toss - that makes Brighton's recruitment strategy - management and players alike, all the more impressive.

[@VSS031]

Still Can't Believe They Paid 2.5m Quid For Mitoma😂😂😂

[@epicmarschmallow5049]

Eh plenty of teams have been lauded for seemingly solving the transfer market after a season or two of great recruiting before regressing back to the mean after a few years. Swansea and Southampton both spring to mind and they're not looking so great right now

[@daviesugo7641]

The fofana injury segment seems prophetic now.

[@philipmeisterl]

Acl tear means this season he will also miss time because of knee problems meaning he hasnt had a season where he had no knee injuries

[@Lfcme]

The music in the background of this has a breakdown that is way too much, its so distacting when the musicians start going foolish

[@PhantomRaspberryBlower]

Hate to disagree with the prof's maths. But that assumes that all those variables are completely independent from one another. Whereas as we can see from the examples that's not true. A manager not liking a player, then playing them out of position and reducing their minutes can result in a underperformance in the player and a greater likelihood of fitness problems. These factors are not random probabilities but associate issues that can be identified and addressed which is probably why some clubs have a much higher hit rate than others. (e.g. Brighton vs West Ham)

[@ferdidolan9187]

Please make a Part 2 explaining other players/transfers or make this into a series

[@sambaker2611]

In order to be able to multiply those chances of success together you also have to assume that the events are statistically independent which is arguably not a great assumption. A player who doesn't fit the style may be far likelier to have personal issues aswell for example

[@Pinkpopcornmusic]

Hang on - so Sterling / 50M / 6 Goals / 3 Assists in 29 apps (1 G/A per > 3matches) = Bad Antony / 80M / 4 Goals / 2 Assists in 25 apps (1 G/A per > 4 matches) = ok?

[@Flash4ML]

He did the funny little spin thing like three times, he gets a pass

[@akachiedoggy5711]

As a chelsea fan, your Fofana verdict hurt, I never knew he had such a glaring injury record in his knees. He was meant to be our long-term defender till 2030

[@titofernandez1500]

????? Everyone knew this. Fofana is super talented but he has never had an injury-free season in premier league. That was the biggest weakness for Leicester when they were pushing top 4 two-three seasons ago.

[@backwardhippo6586]

Lmao not a lot of thinking went on that transfer window. Did it?

[@cauliflornication]

Same...now that I think about it, its kinda dumb signing him with that amount of money. Chelsea board is kinda dumb to tbh 😒

[@HayKay_]

Fans were aware of Fofana's injury history, except for the Board who were eager to throw money 💰 at players. Didn't need a soothsayer to know that the injury will persist. Chelsea overpaid and he is on a 7-year contract. Chelsea has signed Phil Jones 2.0 😢

[@BubblesChika]

It shouldn't be any surprised. Chelsea's transfer policy has been shocking. Todd trying to copy Roman's bygone model of just names was really foolish. That old, worn out model is why Chelsea are trapped with a rotten, nasty man like Lukaku

[@jordanb8119]

John is legit the most well researched and eloquent presenters I’ve ever watched. Absolutely top class and love seeing his videos pop up!

[@robertparker3281]

I think another thing to consider is how players need time to learn and the more detailed the manager then the longer it can take to adapt. I think the second year of signings is a better period to try and determine if it was a success or not.

[@1258-Eckhart]

That aggregated risk calculation is amazing - over six factors rated as 90% positive you get an aggregate of 53% - just over a coin toss. But the number six is a random number. You could equally have sixteen factors, and I assume that the calculated risk would then be 50/50.

[@Khigha87]

Also if you buy a player who plays in a specific position and thrives in a certain system only to play him in a different position and system, you reduce his and the team's chances at success. Pogba was legendary in a midfield 3, United never played a midfield 3. I think it's better to let the player's abilities decide on position changes more than the team's needs, because the team needs each player at their best.

[@GuinessOriginal]

A player who can only play in a certain position and system isn’t much of a player. They wouldn’t get anywhere City or Liverpool’s teams, for example. Pogba was easily good enough to have played well in any position in any system, he was just more interested in social media and haircuts than working hard in the pitch. If he’d had Keane’s with ethic and determination he’d have won a balllon d’or and a lot more medals.

[@leehenry5764]

If a player can't adjust then he's not that good then

[@ryan13aj]

@@GuinessOriginal Strongly disagree. As a Liverpool fan, I don't think players such as Salah, Mane, Firmino, Wijnaldum and Henderson would perform as well as they have at Liverpool elsewhere. Wijnaldum and Mane's poor form since leaving Liverpool is testament to that. No matter how talented a player is, they'll need to play in a system and position that suits their abilities in order to maximise their potential. Salah would likely be less effective at Manchester City, while De Bruyne probably wouldn't suit Liverpool quite as well, but both players are still world class.

[@gbrl433]

@@GuinessOriginalyou’d think someone watching videos on this channel would have better opinions than that

[@GuinessOriginal]

@@ryan13aj Salah would do superbly at city and de bruyne at Liverpool would have given them an another 2-3 titles and another champions league or two and probably the quad last year. Liverpool getting rid of players that are burnt out and past their best proves nothing, and there’s always going to be exceptions to the rule. At the top level of football, players should be good enough to be able to adapt to different systems and play in multiple positions. Pep has consistently shown that they are.

[@szukamymamy]

Great video, would like to see similar but 2 season after transfer in. It would give John more data to analysis and we allow players to understand leauge and manager way of playing footbal. Also some players could show his quality despite injuries or being out of 1st choice.

[@benabonobo1366]

☝️

[@GuinessOriginal]

A la Grealish and Stones, for example.

[@TDatHa]

Today Wesley suffered another injury. ACL this time. Tough for the young lad

[@TheDarkKnightRacist]

it's not fail until their contract are out or they moving to other club, look at Grealish, his first season was shiet, but the second season, he became key player in Man City treble. not every players can be a savior in their debut season, on the other side, People said Lukaku will be a game changer for Chelsea after he score in his first game against Arsenal, and he is no where to be seen right now. just relax and trust the process.

[@098saw]

I think the graelish transfer is him getting used to the complicated guardiola systems as well. He's a moodmaker as well which probably livens up the changing room!

[@gordonkelly]

Paqueta rating a little harsh. Ended the season on fire (not a WH fan)

[@maciejbala477]

sure, but at the start he barely did anything, and you could argue he was disappointing then. But I'm sure he'll do well next season now

[@gordonkelly]

@@maciejbala477 yep, but how you end is a big deal. Arguably their second most influential player at the end of the season.

[@Gonyos]

One of the worst transfer is Naby Keita. I didn't say if he's not good enough for Liverpool. He's just unlucky with his injury prone. Everytime I see him on the pitch I always hoping he is not fall into awkward position. Unfortunately he's always get knocked and got instant injury for long time. Feel sad for him.

[@alasdairmitchell375]

Top quality video Goblin KING

[@honestarsenalfan7038]

Fabio Vieira joined a season too late, he would have had a better shot in 21/22. I'm very locked in, I want to see him go boom!

[@matthewmason8982]

He had a slight injury when he joined and is more a transfer for the future. He’s a “meh”, so far, but I have faith.

[@kisslevente3982]

@@matthewmason8982 He is still extremely talented. He will do well next season.

[@sigfigronath]

The stuff John said or highlighted apply to him also, injury, better player in his position, lack of minutes, confidence, language ect. For me its the confidence and physicality, the guy is very talented.

[@akunwanneprosper7016]

What if Phillips is just for Homegrown quota 😏

[@sigfigronath]

Nah its for Rodri replacement / backup. He was unlucky that Rodri was so good and he was injured.

[@ToastGhost]

Great video but that background music is horrific

[@dexterking103]

Started losing my mind towards the end

[@JR-sj1jz]

Very simple answer. Human beings aren't machines and can be very unpredictable. You can have all the best statistical models you want but that aspect of humanity will not change. And footballers are still human beings (for now). There are things like pressure, heart and desire that are hard to measure or quantify no matter how analysts might want to discount them. Some guys can't handle the pressure of being at a big club. Some guys once they get that big move and big pay cheque, lose their heads. First day at a big club after making the dream move they always wanted and player comes in overweight. How do you predict that Lukaku interview in his first season at Chelsea especially given everything he was saying when the transfer was made official. And then other factors like a club having a new owner who ends up firing his 2 managers during the season. Or a coach who is completely out his depth. Case in point Alan Pardew not rating Mascherano. It was ridiculous then and it still is ridiculous now. And then are other personal stuff too. Divorce, sickness, death in the family, failure to settle in a new culture or country etc. Just far too many unknown variables.

[@MarcelVolker]

I also think many transfers are driven by a form of FOMO, especially in the Premier League the pressure to become better or at least not worse is huge. Many clubs rather take a punt on a player because the alternative is... having no player. You see this especially after a club has just sold one or a few of their major stars for mega££, that money is positively burning in their pockets and more often than not, is not well spent, because time is precious, and they must be seen to be doing something with that cash.

[@TheMaestromMephisto]

I disagree with Fabio Viera having a bad season, he hasnt had enough time to judge, and the few time he has, has been ok, Arteta is blending him slowly into the team

[@blast473]

Not enough minutes means bad season

[@fugaziishime]

​@@blast473when did you start watching football?

[@farhanrahman7119]

He was bad

[@eleonarcrimson858]

i saw him play in the europa league. He was not good.

[@william_SMMA]

​@@eleonarcrimson858not good doesn't equal bad though

[@GreyDay2morrow]

3:06 this was a Europa League game and from 2 seasons ago

[@joehamlen7090]

As a WH fan that triggered me

[@gedionyekunoamlak4453]

Loved it. Great vid guys

[@jedhill3601]

What John is calculating (0.53) is the probability that a player hits all of the markers. He is saying for you to be a good signing, all have to be true. If this is what it takes to just be considered ‘good’, then the model probably doesn’t work. This also assumes independence.

[@jedhill3601]

Also those values aren’t probabilities really, more like scores out of 10.

[@paulrowan7581]

Can't believe a video about bad transfers didn't include United!!!😅

[@Flash4ML]

John trying to beat off the allegations that he's biased against them lol

[@ItsJesssee]

I do think Premier League teams jump on the hype of players too much tho without doing background checks

[@HarryS05]

Have to disagree with you. They don’t base their transfers off social media gossip. It’s the best league in the world and every team invests heavily in recruitment departments with access to all sorts of data and analytics. Managers don’t sign players based on hype trains but rather ones who will fit the system and perform a role efficiently. Evidently this isn’t always the case but that doesn’t meant that the recruitment strategy is based on ‘hype’

[@AP-o2]

@@HarryS05Chelsea, ManU, Leeds, Everton, and the list goes on, you can’t tell me that they think properly about their transfers

[@nifemi_o]

Yeah this is just nonsense, you guys really think these billion pound clubs are basing their transfers on twitter? The fact is football is fickle, and success and failure can be a crapshoot.

[@TheDarkKnightRacist]

not every club mate, look at Newcastle, they did it the right way so far, no hush transfer, everything are plan well.

[@jamestyler12JT]

What a stupid comment lol

[@mandolinabubecorellija5568]

Without watching the video - because normally it would be below the radar 5-15M transfers that noone would even watch if they failed or not. In premier league english players are worth 3 or 5 times more than others. That is why phillips/maguire/sancho "fail". By pricing them you automatically compare them with kroos/van dijk/neymar (first 3 that came to mind). After that it is not easy to fill that shoes. Southgate and the FA are the catalyst of this process because they make them scholes/terry/gascoigne. The media doesnt help either

[@sponish0]

3-5 times is a bit of an exaggeration, if sancho wasn't english he would of been a lot higher than 20/30m still

[@mandolinabubecorellija5568]

@@sponish0 absolutely no way you would even heard of him if he wasnt english. For a dortmund stat-pumper? 30 million?

[@sponish0]

@@mandolinabubecorellija5568 he was literally one of dortmunds top 3 players before he even turned 21 wtf you on about. stat pumper? wtf does that even mean? getting loads of goals and assists is a bad thing? :D

[@mandolinabubecorellija5568]

@@sponish0 of course its not a bad thing, but it is open-style bundesliga dortmund, its not premiership. You dont pay 90 milion for someone that has 10 goals and 12 asists in bundesliga, you pay that for a premiership player. Lets agree to disagree and that beauty is in the eye of a beholder. I just dont like that transfer

[@fernandovazquez9709]

that Bielsa tee goes is fire !

[@gimmibox]

Jon moves his hands much more frantically standing up than in their podcasts

[@athos5761]

I wonder what the stats are when considering multiple seasons. What's the likelihood of a player improving after having a lackluster initial season?

[@natangweiitula]

This is a very good video. More than good. Thumbs up. Thank You very much

[@snakybcaky]

What was so good about it? I didn’t think it was good tbh

[@yes2074]

Nunes wasn’t having the best season under Lage and I think he played better under Lopetegui

[@YungFusebox]

Is his name pronounced Noons?

[@alexstackhouse8932]

Totally agree as a Wolves fan . Yes Lopetegui has played him wider in the second half of the season but from what I've seen he's been far more effective than when he played in his preferred central position under Lage. Still massively underwhelming season given the price tag / hype.

[@chillaxboi2109]

@@YungFusebox Noonis or Noones like the jones

[@williambuckley5601]

The Lyon v West Ham quarter final match was in the Europa League, 21/22 season.

[@ashr7307]

Starting to think that Mr Mackenzie says names/words in a weird way on purpose just to wind us up 😂

[@ardentspy]

Noons is definitely a windup.

[@zlatanmorrison8182]

Interesting that you just skipped right over the very first one on the list 'player not as good as thought' which is probably the primary cause of every one of the duff transfers on the initial list. Too many clubs paying waaaaaay over the odds for average joe's that may well be able to cut it in their home league or perhaps played better for the team they were bought from, then come to the Prem and get found out for being a bang average show pony (like Antony as one example). Also, zero incentive to play once purchased for massive amounts of money and on massive wages - thinking they have 'made it' in their eyes and simply do not bother anymore.

[@HayKay_]

Good job Tifo. Wish there is a video that analysed Kai Havertz or Pulisic's time at Chelsea. Havertz was touted as a generational talent (the next Ballack, Ozil etc.) while Pulisic was tagged the next Hazard and he even took the number 10 jersey. Both transfer didn't workout at Chelsea.

[@rijocool1]

Kai hasn’t had a fixed place at Chelsea often played out of position , I’d have loved to see Kai stay though if anyone could have got a tune out of him it would be poch. Kai would have excelled in the delle Alli role . And as for pulisic , the guy could not get fit . Every time he gets a run of games he gets injured and it’s right back to square one . Playing as a wingback did not help also

[@HayKay_]

@@rijocool1 guess that comes with being "versatile" because Havertz himself is still unsure of his best position. He has worked under 3 managers in his 3 seasons in England and Arteta will be his 4th manager for the 4th season, lol. let's see how that goes.

[@rjaymurphy]

Does anything work at Chelsea?

[@HayKay_]

@@rjaymurphy @Chelsea it doesn't have to work to win. From the days of Abramovich, Chelsea just 🏆. Miracle in Munich (2012 UCL) is a good example. That season was hopeless, but Chelsea won the UCL. Same thing in 2021. Without trying to take anything away from Tuchel, he is a fantastic manager, I wish the board had not fired him. But it is still unbelievable how Chelsea hired a manager in January and won the UCL in May and then completed the trophy cabinet of Abramovich era with SC and CWC🏆🏆. Chelsea thrives in chaos, but the new owners tested the limit of that chaos and everything crashed. Anyways, I still ❤️ my Chelsea.

[@TwinkleWinks2]

​@@rjaymurphyyeah last season nothing works at chelsea

[@monarch1993]

Such is life. You can spend days, months, even years to make sure something goes right and you would think someone would fit in perfectly for the job/romance etc, something or multiple things can go wrong by sheer chance and simply not work out.

[@paulkonyefa1060]

YOU GUYS DIDN'T DROP THE SENSIBLE TRANSFER VIDEO FOR ARSENAL, INSTEAD YOU DID A VIDEO ON TIMBER AND BALOGUN, MUCH APPRECIATED I MUST SAY, BUT STILL KNOWING THE STRENGTH AND BALANCE OF OUR TEAM, AND A LINEUP THAT MAY BE USED IN THE NEXT SEASON BASED ON YOUR ANALYSIS AND NOT CONJECTURE IS A GREAT SOMETHING

[@sigfigronath]

Tbh, we just need a saka backup and maybe another CM or forward. Our sqaud is actually very balanced.

[@paulkonyefa1060]

@@sigfigronath I get you my gee, I'm just trying to let them know we gunners are serious😂😤 As for a saka backup, hopefully we sell pepe allowing for us to get that person

[@chinaman1]

Let's see how it goes for Rice and Mount this season.

[@GuinessOriginal]

Rice will do well, Mount not so much.

[@Azabaxe80]

Rice will do fine. He will be asked to do at Arsenal what he has done for West Ham and England. His superpowers, high interception rate, high probability clean tackles, superb tactical awareness and no history of injuries, fit Arsenal present needs to a T. He is also highly familiar or friends with several members of the squad, so he doesn't need to work to integrate into the team. He'll play, and he'll be fine.

[@BubblesChika]

@@Azabaxe80 I'm not so sure he will

[@Azabaxe80]

@@BubblesChika I'm curious to know, what are you seeing that I am not?

[@BubblesChika]

@@Azabaxe80 Rice has never played in a team that dominates possession. It's quite concerning that West Ham dropped so much the season after Noble retired. I wasn't impressed with him in the final either. He looked a bit lost and couldn't stop the leveller. Better reading & scanning from Rice would've avoided that. Luckily, Lucas and Bowen stepped up & spared his brushes. Fiorentina's Amrabat seemed like the more sensible choice, especially considering Fiorentina play possession football

[@MaheshMenon]

Antony in grey is generous

[@TylerAven10]

And Wesley Fofana just tore his ACL. The timing of this video is stunning

[@MichaelEzechukwu]

All I want to is that J.J Okocha is in esteemed company behind the analyst. I'm Nigerian and i'm proud

[@sandergaasbeek5978]

Interesting video, weird sound design, especially around 2:40

[@HibariKyoya007]

Feel bad for Matheus Nunes, Liverpool wanted him but they too slow.

[@adamsutton3217]

Love the shirt! 😁

[@og_praxis17]

That Antonio quote, about his current teammate, is still absolutely wild to hear

[@maciejbala477]

it might seem a bit crude but I don't think he meant it in a bad way, just tried to say he's not the kind of player who fits a Moyes system

[@cynshie7620]

@@maciejbala477 it's just not a good thing to say though when you're both still playing for the club. maybe in five years time when both players have moved on but not now 😅

[@no1raniuk854]

Big up Filthy Fellas though. Major waves.

[@rolandcooke]

Players joining Man City famously take at least a year to settle in, does that not apply to every transfer to a lesser or greater extent? What's the general expectation / what's an appropriate period of time to judge whether a transfer has been successful or not?

[@rijocool1]

I guess haaland is the only exception . But since the trend in city is getting to form in the second season , It’s real scary what haaland will do this season

[@MarbleArch333]

​@@rijocool1Akanji ?

[@rijocool1]

@@MarbleArch333 oh yea but I guess akanji benefitted more from the change in tactics

[@RustyAymes]

Love the Bielsa shirt

[@benedictjephcote6815]

If the statistics were to take into account even more variables, the chances (if based upon similar rather 'finger in the air' assumptions) would likely get low pretty quickly. Statistics are kinda useful, but have a limit to their usefulness as we keep seeing in recent years.

[@emin4736]

Why there is no videos about Barcelona?

[@kingarthur8646]

Don't we miss jack of all trade players like michael carrick??? Many players these days are one dimensional, but one team that have been the best at collecting multidimensional players it is man city, and with the best manager at hand, it is a winning combo. Many premier league managers don't have the flexibility to change tactics and develop players to a certain style because they have no experience of foreign leagues (since MAN UTD LAST PREMIERSHIP, all the premier league seasons have been won by foreigner coaches with lot of experience outside of the premier league). The premier league managers lack of diversity and experience and knowledge of European football is the problem for me.

[@applenuts]

It depends how you define a failed transfer also. In this video it seems to presume that if you are not in the first 11 every week then you're a failed transfer. Also if you haven't performed well in your first season you're also a failed transfer. Neither of which i agree with. Was phillips brought in with the idea that he was going replace rodri? Of coarse not, he is just backup. If he is backup and dosen't get many minitues then how can he perform well? I don't see how u can conclude that he's flopped.

[@mukwesamwanza1511]

I personally think the odds of making it to the Premier league or any other big leagues are just slim. Most of the costly transfers are just a club beating a rival for a player they originally didnt intend to buy. For example man utd and Fred, Sanchez, Lukaku

[@WheresMyCurryAt]

"fan made podcast" give filthy it's flowers. We know u all watch it

[@TheEddie1401]

Something funny about how that probability worked out @2:00 is read out

[@folabiolaore8156]

I love the fact that Okocha has a place on your wall

[@asifrashid3212]

Never thought I would get a math lesson from TIFO

[@OzyMandias13]

Sweet Bielsa shirt

[@Louback33]

when can we call a transfer a success or failure? I think one season is a little knee-jerk

[@liamburns8554]

For some reason I never felt Philips was meant to succeed. Need to buy home grown players to warm the bench, Scott Carson being the prime example. And they knew he would have decent resale value

[@SJW82]

Rumour has it we are in for him, though I very much doubt city will sell him. I can imagine klopp would get the best out of him…though he’s on the wrong side of 30 for me 🤦‍♂️

[@Geitepielekupke]

Why the song in the background? Unnecescary

[@francisokafor5456]

Just an advice. When showing a sheet of data. Kindly show it and not the person talking. Also show it and not flash it.

[@shaqtaku]

Pep is so ruthless lmao. Will sign a player for millions only to bench him

[@ryanlaird6447]

Still think grealish and Phillips signings only happened to weaken mid table premier league clubs Celtic and rangers do it in Scotland

[@juniormynos9457]

I don't get excited for new signings anymore because how unpredictable they are

[@albertbrammer9263]

You do not classify a transfer as a failure after one season, especially if that player has arrived from outside the same league.

[@Joe-wj7ku]

This is some nonsense probability going on here. 1) The choice of 6 categories of failure with a 90% chance of success is completely arbitrary to achieve the 50% number. It's reverse engineered. 2) each reason for failure is not independent, so the probabilities CANNOT simply be multiplied together. Neither the model nor the inputs can be trusted.

[@nats3606]

Me waiting for Barcelona sensible transfers🙃🙃🙃🙃

[@_lazaran]

I dont know what are u saying, but Matheus Nunes never work out under Bruno Lage's team

[@cupertinoish]

Where's Mudryk?

[@euancoulter4345]

There needs to be like trials before 30-100 million is spent on a player who’s never truly proved themselves, every player should start on loan until they can prove their price tag.

[@arnabthreethreesixfivethre4841]

After watching this video i would request fans to not label new transfers as flops mindlessly

[@phoenixfire6559]

Oof, just 24 hours after this video and Wesley Fofana ruptures his ACL. Well, that's £70m down the drain.

[@iandavies7991]

John is an absolute nerd, but a great football analyst. Bringing him on board is the best thing Tifo have done imo

[@mitchelljack1590]

His mrs in the comments again

[@iandavies7991]

@@mitchelljack1590 🤣🤣🤣

[@rupeoverlay3153]

Not sure how fair it is to Phillips to include him in this. Transfers for Pep often take over a year to learn what he wants from his players so it’s not really fair to judge yet. Plus Rodri is the best DM in the world. I’m neither a City or Phillips fan. Just saying.

[@InvadersMustDie1918]

I'm very curious if Sandro Tonali will integrate at Newcastle, with language and environment. It's well known that just a few italians really succeed in EPL. They don't really like to play outside of Italy anyway. We see that Scamacca didn't make it in EPL, now let's see Tonali.

[@maciejbala477]

eh, I wouldn't discount Scamacca just yet. West Ham could still keep him, he's just unlikely to work if Moyes is still in a job

[@BubblesChika]

I reckon he leaves back to Italy next summer. He already looks severely unhappy to be in England

[@sigfigronath]

@@BubblesChika Yea I saw a few quotes saying he likes to play at Rome, but hes surelly not a bad player.

[@wilcoxtam810]

They “fail” because we have a skewed understanding of what makes a transfer a success. It’s folly to judge a big money signing, especially if they’re foreign, on one season performance

[@BigTawfiq]

Still not how probability works. No accounting for weighting, or statistical independence.

[@ahnafdrubo9727]

THE BACKGROUND MUSIC IS SO IRRITATING. Tifo is truly lost

[@ashu2087]

Love this channel and all the content, but this was more a 3-minute video with an explanation of multiple probabilities than a 10 min+ video. Just to get in-video ads?

[@yinnkie]

Err Anthony should be a bold red

[@bender9222222222]

I wonder how many players struggle in their first year under Pep's system. It feels like almost every player is labeled a bust when they arrive at the Etihad. HUGE exception would be Haaland 😂😂

[@RedDevilJohnson]

The background music was incredibly obnoxious for this video. Couldn’t concentrate over the sound of bells ringing.

[@jayuzumaki8186]

Respect filthy fellas mate.

[@no1raniuk854]

Let him land…

[@Zombieturtles]

‘Manchester Cidy’

[@famouse6217]

Phillips will come good, real quality player in there

[@BubblesChika]

Lol, no he won't 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@famouse6217]

@@BubblesChika I see you replying to a few comments hating on Phillips, why?

[@BubblesChika]

@@famouse6217 Because he's not good. Grealish made more premier league minutes last season alone than Phillips made in all competitions. He really isn't going to come good

[@famouse6217]

@@BubblesChika you’ve got a crystal ball of football? You know naff mate shut up

[@dan_druff2470]

no way tifo have used the filthy fellas podcast as a source

[@gentleken7864]

Yeah, 'Mancheser Siddy'