Why Is UPS Stock CRASHING To A 52 Week Low! | Undervalued With 5% Yield? | UPS Stock Analysis! |

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In this video we will analyse United Parcel Service (UPS) stock using our 4 valuations methods to get to our intrinsic value. We will then apply a margin of safety to get to our acceptable buy price.
We will also take a look at the dividend safety and other key financial metrics. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
I am not a financial advisor or licensed professional. Nothing I say or produce on KZbin or anywhere else, should be considered as advice. All content is for educational purposes only. I am not responsible for any financial losses or gains. Invest and trade at your own risk.

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[@jaykenpachi6788]

As a ups driver I'm definitely a long term investor in the company so I'll just continue to enjoy the dip while i continue to purchase shares every week🤷🏾‍♂️

[@alohastateofmind3565]

What are the specific reasons you have faith long term? Asking because you have probably the best vantage point to see the inner workings of the company.

[@carlmazziotti221]

I regret not lacking in gains when it was at 227 but i did buy 50 more today. Im in the industry and understand there are so many players and the barrier to entey is too steep. Ups will face cyclical wvents however clearly was chosen by usps for a multi billion dollar contract for a reason. Fedex was dropped for a good reason. Im loading up on every dip.

[@markmeehan9908]

Arn't most US government contracts that are NOT from the Department of Defence awarded to the lowest cost provider? I assume this is what you meant for the reason UPS was awarded the USPS contract.

[@carlmazziotti221]

@markmeehan9908 many are but anything involving GOVT rest assured is convoluted. Especially when it's in the billions of dollars.

[@carlmazziotti221]

I unloaded 20k of ups a few days ago and sure enough it started climbing again. It's a trap though. I know usps is all over their lightweight b to c. No way ups canco.pete in that arena. Q1 2025 will be a disaster for ups.

[@roveirdatu3851]

Just looking at 5 yr avg on sales, earnings, cf from Morningstar, it looks like today price is at FV. I put a price alert in the 100 ish

[@noname-yt7sk]

Lets check Coke, PM, Pep, Visa Mcd...

[@PhinAI]

Great presentation! Appreciate it!

[@DividendTalks]

Thanks a lot! 😊

[@jacqdanieles]

It's a dog. I'm a bag holder at 146. Thought it was attractive & the yield was attractive. Big mistake.

[@GymForLifeHD]

how low this can go ? want start building position i will at 120 maybe sooner

[@davidlemmon4603]

UPS has been a painful part of my portfolio lately.

[@1lowtrade]

Yeah u lose money then i buy the dip dip dip

[@jburg636]

Dividend Safety: 69 Nice.

[@DividendTalks]

*giggity*

[@jburg636]

@@DividendTalks 😂😂

[@dividendfire855]

NOICE

[@StevenZagaris]

Higher the dividend, bigger the problems.

[@AyjayAlleyway]

What’s the problem? I sure don’t see it.

[@StevenZagaris]

@@AyjayAlleyway Typically the higher the dividend being offered, especially when the dividend exceeds the market interest rate they're trying to lure you into the stock because it underperforms the market. That's why stocks like Walgreens, UPS, Verizon pay higher than market rate dividends but their stock price underperforms so in reality, the investor loses. I think the sweet spot in this market for a performing dividend stock is the 1-4% Yield range.

[@StevenZagaris]

@@AyjayAlleyway lmao he deleted my comment

[@bobsclassiccarsparts8772]

We’ll look at the brite side. It closed $2.70 up from its intraday low 😊

[@markmeehan9908]

I find it very concerning that the UPS intrinsic value fell from $169 in your January 2024 analysis to only $151 in your current analysis

[@michaelroot1960]

Pension liability is a huge problem.

[@kurtkapusuzoglu9825]

UPS seems like a great add to the long term portfolio. The only issue for me is I keep think, ‘why not get AMZN instead for $60 more per share.’ 5% yield is nice but does it make up for the difference in quality of company and the diversity of products/services that AMZN has to offer? I am interested in others’ perspectives on the matter

[@Nick-po8sf]

You can't value a company by share price. You gotta use market cap and enterprise value because that factors in how many shares are issued.

[@stockjock1222]

Added to my UPS position today. I think the worst is now behind the company. I knew wage inflation would impact earnings, but UPS has been slashing costs. I love that they are doing share buybacks. Most companies do buybacks when the company is successful and shares are overpriced. Also, this is still a business with a wide moat and only 2 other true competitors in DHL and FedEx. Plus, their contract with USPS should add significantly to the top line.

[@davidlemmon4603]

Amazon is kind of a competitor too...

[@humbledservant9693]

@@davidlemmon4603I do believe Amazon to be the biggest competition long term

[@Pedro_bcl]

Don't forget Amazon is coming

[@alohastateofmind3565]

Buying UPS on the dip, no brainer.

[@DividendTalks]

Not for me, but I hope it works out for you 😊

[@Steelersfootball45]

Why is that ?

[@noname-yt7sk]

where is the dip? 80-100$?

[@davidlemmon4603]

Be careful, nobody knows where the bottom is... I'm hearing $100 a share

[@JustinCase-em6ql]

I did. Will buy more if it continues to drop.

[@TheRustyLM]

Because we are going into a worldwide recession and sales of everything are going to plummet. Only thing going in UPS favor right now is falling petrol prices.

[@alohastateofmind3565]

In a recession people will search the web for the best deal and then have it delivered to them. Also they won't have to spend gas to go to the store to buy it in person. Boom!

[@TheRustyLM]

@@alohastateofmind3565 for your sake I hope you are right.

[@itsYourfuture-f6x]

my trailer used to get about 1,200 boxes, now about 450

[@TheBazino]

It seems logical that they are still losing sales. Nobody remembers COV anymore, people - especially women - are going shopping in real life (more) again, so less pakets being sent around. I would have thought it would drop a lot faster, but it seems to be a slow burn that's lasting for longer than most people anticipated.

[@DividendTalks]

It’s not one for me either, and something I’ve covered in a previous UBS episode is that over time it is believed that Amazon will take market share away from UPS.

[@TheBazino]

@@DividendTalks They are already doing that in Europe a lot I think. At least here in Austria Amazon delivers A LOT themself already (with super cheat subcontractors of course). Far more interesting might be that Amazon is supposedly thinking about jumping hardcore into the pharmacy market in the US, which might be the deathnail for struggling Walgreens and CVS...?

[@alohastateofmind3565]

@@DividendTalks They just secured a new contract with USPS.

[@DividendTalks]

@@alohastateofmind3565​​⁠yes I’ve discussed this in todays episode and before, however it only makes up 2% of their total revenue

[@Pedro_bcl]

Who UPS?​@@DividendTalks

[@MrYas18]

I think 115/120 n below is where i may consider a starter position.. dont know if they can turn it around

[@AyjayAlleyway]

What’s to turn around?

[@MrYas18]

@@AyjayAlleyway key numbers are going lower.. im happy buying my etf & making double/triple the gains of ups

[@AyjayAlleyway]

Undervalued, high dividend, healthy balance sheet, wide moat… what am I missing?

[@theyuha]

it is not really crashing, it went way up and is coming back down. Glad i did not keep mine though

[@DividendTalks]

I would call a 33% drop from just a year ago a crash :)

[@AyjayAlleyway]

@@DividendTalks it was inflated because of covid.

[@zpsl6215]

ALGN Earnings tomorrow. Expectations?

[@DividendTalks]

Not one I’ve looked at, but I did come across this: Align Technology Likely to Miss Q2 Estimates for Clear Aligner Cases on Weaker Demand in Americas, UBS Says.

[@zpsl6215]

@@DividendTalks Thanks brother. Appreciate the response

[@linhdoan7925]

I got some shares today at $125.39. Wait load more at $100!

[@jaypence332]

I put in $90 bids good for October.

[@kangamagic1206]

Don't they pay truck drivers $170,000/year?

[@tradingfundamentals]

UPS is looking risky with their climbing dividend payout ratio😅

[@DividendTalks]

100% agree

[@tradingfundamentals]

Glad we're on the same page. I'm having trouble finding solid companies at a deal right now.

[@AyjayAlleyway]

@@tradingfundamentals UPS obviously doesn’t think so. They have enough cash flow to fund a share repurchase.

[@davethedude5417]

Only 4 years away the teamsters will demand a huge raise or they will strike .

[@AlexjLopez439]

Treat your employees like shit and your company soon be worthless

[@AyjayAlleyway]

they treat their employees very well.

[@AlexjLopez439]

@@AyjayAlleyway some the management do treat us good but they also got some terrible supervisors that should not be supervising a McDonalds

[@bobsclassiccarsparts8772]

I haven’t had a chance to watch the video yet. I should tonight. I watched the last one & saw that Graham wasn’t too impressed. However I did add a little to my position today 🫣 The package delivery business is probably going to get messy in the coming years. UPS will probably go on a cost cutting binge now. Edit: I use UPS often in my auto parts business & it’s a good company & they provide a needed service

[@darrenhere5856]

its a dog with fleas... buy companies who have more control on their greatest expense, otherwise you have a stodgy airline or utility.

[@user-bm6wu9zw9m]

I’m buying, I’m thinking long term 💵

[@problemslayer3538]

Still buying

[@TheTyberZann]

Teamsters union destroyed the profit margin during the strike. Its going to be a few year struggle to get back, if they ever do. Fed ex employee compensation is over 50% lower than UPS.

[@Nuttymike]

That was Carol's fault for playing chicken with the union. Send her ass back to Home Debot.

[@HallAlison-w7z]

Putting well-earned money into the stock market can't be over emphasised for first-time investors, unlike a bank where interest is sure thing! Well, basically times are uncertain, the market is out of control, and banks are gradually failing. I am working on a ballpark estimate of $5M for retirement, and I have a good 6-figure loaded up for this, could there be any opportunity for a boomer like me?

[@eugenegarrett1156]

I'm not buying 😊

[@bunddachung]

개이야

[@AlexjLopez439]

Ups a bunch of thiefs and rats dont inveat in a sinking ship

[@AyjayAlleyway]

Revenue and profit growth = sinking ship?

[@AlexjLopez439]

@@AyjayAlleyway stocks have been down for a while like a few months