Why Modern Soccer Cards are DOOMED to FAIL...

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Sports cards are a wonderful hobby. It's a choose your own adventure, Vintage, Rookies, Inserts, Rarity, Player Collections. There's a segment in the community for everyone and we will try and help them learn more while we also try to grow our understand of the sports card community/market. If you enjoy the video make sure to leave a like and subscribe, and let me know any of your thoughts down below!!
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[@blueodum]

The issue that is somewhat unique to soccer is that the best leagues are outside of North America, while card collecting in general is still dominated by North Americans. For soccer, that is slowly changing, as graded cards are slowly gaining credibility with collectors in Europe and Asia. Card shows, at least in Europe, are starting to gain a foothold - and soccer will be the mainstay of those shows. We will see if this trend continues, or plateaus at some point.

[@gsquared.collectibles8392]

This is the answer. I would be curious to see the data points on Soccer sales from eBay UK, eBay DE, eBay FR.

[@vinny34000]

Hello, i start collecting soccer card and stickers in south of France about 1 year ago. I leave by the mediterranean sea between Barcelona and Marseille. Football is a religion right here but nobody care about soccer card market yet. Last year Panini release a set for ligue 1 called SCORE, it was the first time i Had ever seen quality cards at retail in my tobacco store. panini also released a new set called TOP CLASS , it is a ultra modern style of card, i can tell you that i am not the only collecting in my area anymore Sorry for my english😅 Best regards

[@petrawenzek3084]

Hello from Germany! Your words describe it really good. 👍

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

Awesome comment, don't worry about the english it was pretty good. Glad to hear it's slowly gaining steam. That's the best route is a slow and steady adoption rather than everyone at once. It's more organic that way.

[@MadCityCollector]

I essentially agree with all your conclusions. You did mention we need more thoughtful collectors, and I would point out there are many thoughtful collectors out there if you search them out and often they are not the loudest voices in the room. Right now as you say they are being drowned out by the prospectors, speculators, flippers and gamblers particularly in the modern space. As these people move on to the next new thing, more earnest, deliberate collectors will start to circle the collectible cards from this era but it will take time. Too reiterate one of your points if you are tracking the market as you do, people are spending way too much money on new releases that are overpriced and don’t hold value, which doesn’t leave a lot of money for collecting older products leading to a steady decline in value despite the space increasing in participation. I would say for serious collectors before you dump serious money into any cards in the current market, I would create a collecting thesis that you’re willing to follow and not stray. It is something I have done and I have enjoyed the space a lot more.

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

Lovely comment, as you mentioned there are thoughtful collectors in the space that typically are more to themselves, so they're not as easy to find. Definitely wouldn't hurt to have more people like them but it takes dedication and time to get to that point.

[@nesquik015]

I think the point you are missing is that 90% of cards are doomed to fail. The trick is to find the 10% that doesn't. Look at baseball, nba and nfl its the same. Tons of rookies crash and lose all value it's just how the modern market is because of how many sets are released. In basket Zion was hyped as shit but all his cards lost 80-90% value it happens almost every year. Wemby is and outlier. Not all cards are supposed to go up in value. Also Ronaldo and Messi are still active as you point out and this season we have great players sure but none of them have standout seasons. The ballon d'or is still a 5 person race that will come down to chl and the euros. Jude had a great season but is still 20 goals behind a typical Ronaldo/Messi season, so it doesnt really make sense he would reach those levels. And look at Lamine Yamal cards those are selling for crazy amounts even for base auto's. I dont think modern soccer is going to fail but people have to understand not everything will go up in value. You have to get the right player, the right set and the right year.

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

Definitely a good point, my counter would be, even if you're picking the right player in soccer at the moment you're barely seeing any movement. So you have to pick the right player, the right card, and the right time. So instead of making 1 gamble you have to make 3. In my opinion it's much less that 10%, but maybe that's the time we're in.

[@nesquik015]

@@UsmntSoccerCards Agreed we are not seeing much action right now. But we are also coming from a big hype bubble. I also do Pokemon and honestly Its the same there. So i dont think Its soccer alone. Its just the time we are in right now.

[@weekendupnate]

With very few exceptions, you can pick any year and the best move, financially speaking, is to just stick with retired legends like Babe, Mantle, Mays, Jordan, Wilt, Russell, Magic, Bird, Gretzky, etc. Since 2006, Lebron’s exquisite rpa /99 has approx 20x in value. A massive amount of risk was taken to get that 20x. Nearly every other unproven player chosen would have -99% since then. Coincidentally, all those retired legends did 10-40x since 2006 also. With zero on the field/court risk, they provided roughly the same roi on a long timeline. It’s almost like choosing quality cards of legends is like having an index of every young unproven prospect

[@fortysixn2903]

I don’t agree with the collectible sets argument. I grew up collecting baseball cards and Topps alone made over 100 different sets last year. I just gave up a few years back…an /10 should be pretty rare, but if your favorite player has /10 /5 /1 in 100 different sets? One of the charming things about collecting Football (soccer) cards is that there isn’t a single league, there are tons of tournaments and there is no HOF. There aren’t a ton of sets and your LCS won’t have many if any. If you are buying any collectables as an investment vehicle you aren’t going to fare well over the long term. However I find alot of Topps cards especially very nice looking and I enjoy collecting them.

[@Podobed]

Soccer is very similar to baseball in the prospecting front. But unlike with baseball, the cards have unrealistic prices from release date. That doesn't happen with baseball- in general Bowman 1st cards are significantly less hyped than soccer unless their on field performances call for it. And I feel the prices adjust much faster up and down. Soccer card prospects come out expensive and stay expensive, by and large until performances don't live up to the hype and then they crash to 0 and have a hard time coming back up.

[@neilhefty2999]

This is great analysis and commentary. Everything you say is pretty accurate without being judgmental. Nice work. Lots of people need to hear this.

[@kinell188]

Like with all sports now, too many sets, too many parallels.

[@markgriffiths8786]

An underdeveloped sport only in the eyes of the USA

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

The sport isn't under-developed, the collecting culture is. Sure every country has it's own niches, but the connectivity of the entire world has only been possible for a couple decades. So holistically it's miles behind other sports.

[@BEKR17ASroma]

Amazing video! Thank you. I agree with all your points. One other perspective - I think the base of “value investor” collectors for modern soccer may still be small enough that only numbered parallels of great young players show upward movement. In other words, these collectors only collect that stuff and have not yet been priced out of the parallels. So base cards prices don’t benefit. I would imagine that the parallels for the pre-2019 (before the production bonanza) rookies you mention have shown better stability / growth. I guess a closer look at Mbappe / Foden / Vini Jr numbered stuff would be the way to check. Tricky to do though with not great tracking available for these rarer sales.

[@archie7700]

Most issues stem from the people that view the cards like some sort of crypto currency or stock, it’s not that, they’re CARDS designed to COLLECT and enjoy, prices always fluctuating due to hype or the crowds moving around looking for the next ‘gem’ just to manipulate and make money off. People gotta stop trying to milk it, sure if you make money along the way that’s satisfying but if not just enjoy the hobby man.

[@johnbowlus]

Pretty crazy you have 53 likes on this video but 51 comments! Clearly hit home, but people can’t hit a like button 😂 I have essentially started only buying non-modern because of the dollars and cents (sense). Picked up my first Pele for a little over $100. Obviously that will hold value better than anything for that price modern unless you somehow find a /5 Red Topps UCC card and flip it in the next few months.

[@FootballEnthusiastYT]

I generally agree with your analysis. The nature of football (soccer) inherently makes it difficult to do flipping and short-term investing (due to the large number of leagues, teams and players), but even despite that, I think the current state of ultramodern was inevitable. Which I believe is actually a good thing. For the past 2-3 years, we've seen buyers be smarter and more selective with what they buy. Naturally, a lot of that buying has transitioned to buying vintage and pre-modern cards of legends with intrinsic 'value'. Along with buyers becoming more experienced, the football (soccer) card market has been correcting, particularly modern. This process takes time, perhaps years, as we can see. The fact that the market has been plateauing in the past few months is a positive, in my view.

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

I think that the space has grown quite a bit over the last few years despite the market decline. For those of us that have been around a bit, I do believe we're making strides in the right direction. However I'm more worried for the newer people entering, but with time they'll likely learn the lessons we have too. So we'll see how it all shakes out, but the level of wax production at this moment in time is wildly out of hand, and I worry for people ripping/holding almost any of it.

[@TenaciousAC]

5:14 Let’s add a 4th Dimension…. Gemrate Data. What’s been the supply increase over time ? So back in May 2022 (the start of the CardLadder graph), 820 PSA 10s. Almost two years later, 1266, adding a further 54% of supply. (The only saving grace is it’s only adding 100-150 PSA 10s a year so the flood will slow to a trickle eventually).

[@TenaciousAC]

7:35 June 2022 167 Jude Bundesliga Sapphire PSA 10s Today 588 (352% increase in supply). At current rates, could there be 1000 PSA 10s by end of year ?

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

@@TenaciousAC Sure gems have increased. But if we took raw card data then it would look similar, and there hasn't been an inherent increase in the number of cards produced, those are static numbers. It's a good observation though, and one that is worth noting.

[@Smoove55dfs]

I will stand and die on this hill. The 2026 World Cup will be the year for soccer cards. The coverage America will provide boosts the market. Sport card flippers as bad as there are will draw more eyes to the product as they try to make a quick flip. I already have seen saka in a new balance shoes commercial here with other NBA stars. Saka has a shoe deal so the marketing is starting now in us: only more to come.

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

I too believe soccer will get a big boost in 2026, and cards will get some attention as well. I guess my hesitation comes from, will the new entrants care enough to buy cards for 3-5 years ago, or even further back? Sure flippers will come by and add some liquidity, and some new collectors will start opening packs. But I don't think the demand for old singles will outpace the supply of people who have been anticipating 2026.

[@Smoove55dfs]

I think collectors with take over that space who never collected sport cards legend will be brought up during that times. Collector will send pop counts and look at a time invest in the most noticeable names.

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

@@Smoove55dfs If that's true I think there would be many other safer plays than buying ultra-modern prospects. To each their own tho.

[@user-of3pu5jd8i]

Great analysis and telling it how it is. I reckon that popularity of players is somewhat related to when a wave of money comes into the hobby. A lot of soccer card money is recent and hence follows modern players. US sports have had numerous waves and hence the devotion to players of that era. Post WW2 baseball is an example. The other issue I see is the importance of international soccer particularly success at the World Cup in building recognition. Doesn’t apply so much to US sports. For the record, my favourite set is 2011 Futera. Absolutely the most gorgeous cards, still had the license, and only 1 parallel. Visually stunning. The Maldini might be the most beautiful card ever IMO.

[@fjfucjdi093jfe]

The thing is that now you can buy gold /50s or less of mbappe, Saka, haaland, etc for less than a blaster box, that's insane to me. Cards or world class players numbered to /99 going for less than a price of a soda. We're at the point now to where all the dumb parallels panini and Topps have printed over the years have finally caught up to the market and destroyed it for future product releases. Of course this doesn't matter. They've created so much gambling addicts to the point that they're buying into products and breaks because of their addiction and those people don't care about the market at all. If soccer cards become worthless they'd still be buying product for the thrill of it.

[@karlkuhn86]

I really have no interest in buying cards of players I never watched play. Buying modern helps me feel connected to the clubs I root for and more specifically the players for said clubs. For me, buying vintage provides no emotional value. Just my two cents.

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

Totally fair and many people feel the same way. I feel somewhat similar in regard to buying Pre-War players since I cannot watch them. At this point I prefer 50's-80's vintage since I actually have connected to those players through the youtube videos of them and documentaries that have been produced.

[@blueodum]

Regarding Cruyff - he doesn't have a lot of high grade early material, and that which exist is often held in collections. To me, that is why sales over $500 are infrequent.

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

Possibly the case. I'd say his Vanderhout rookie is actually one of the higher graded goat rookies you can find in vintage. No matter, if the 5th best player of all time doesn't even have a thriving collector base, then that doesn't bode well for young players who can only hope of achieving a fraction of what he did.

[@timolarks4975]

Great video as always thank you and keep them coming from the UK 🇬🇧 👍

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

Much love, I will do my best.

[@blueodum]

People have been asking who the next player will be to approach the Mbappe/Haaland tier. For me Vini has the best chance right now - to me he is the best Real player at the moment - the danger man that opponents have to worry about, which opens up opportunities for other players.

[@soluscristus1]

I recommend that you create a devil’s advocate video to try to understand the optimism that some of us have for soccer cards. I think that we will see a surge of new collectors the year prior to the World Cup. After collectors educate themselves.. while buying too much of the new stuff, they will shift their purchases to key cards of their favorite players. There will be an ebb and flow of new collectors but I see the market for key cards going up and the market for bulk color/numbered cards going down.

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

I like to balance the positivity and negativity when possible. What are you thinking in terms of where collectors shift to key cards? I guess my issue with modern is, what even are the key cards? I was recently asked what card to buy for Jude Bellingham, and I was out at a loss.

[@soluscristus1]

@@UsmntSoccerCards The market will have to figure out what the key cards are and that may change as time goes by. I believe you’ve pointed out in your videos how the popularity of certain Pelé cards has evolved over time. I’ve personally seen my collecting habits change as I realized that I had too many cards. I’ve been collecting soccer for about three years now. It took me a while to figure our what I wanted to collect. I collect Brazilian players now. I bought my first Pelé rookie last month and I’m even taking my family to see the Brazil vs USA match this June in Orlando. It’s interesting how collecting can influence other areas of your life. For Bellingham, I’d say that his Topps chrome gold rookies will probably hold value better than other sets or parallels but you never know. For example, if England were to win the World Cup then his World Cup Prizm cards would become more desirable.

[@jaredsmith3516]

new entrants will play the prospect game ---> lose 95% value ---->Some leave/go to other sports --->others go to vintage/premodern/modern (2014-2019)...the question is what percent go to other era's vs leave

[@valenciafantv]

Another great video, thanks for the content

[@markgriffiths8786]

I thought collecting your favourite team and players was the point not who can make the most money from selling them!

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

That should be what it's about, many people have lost sight of that though.

[@moregunzthanroses281]

You have to take in account people buy what they like not what you like. Vintage is niche in every sport. You may have to get with the times, kabooms and color blast may not be your thing. You have younger collectors that will look right pass babe Ruth and pick up a Mike trout card. Modern is not dead if the best player to ever play a sport happens to be born in 2002 his card will be modern not vintage. Everyone likes what they like. What’s a better purchase Tom Brady rookie or Joe Namath ? Messi rookie or Merabona ? Jordan or Jerry west? All depends on who you ask

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

The issue is not what players people like, but what cards people like. Soccer is so new that no one entering has a god damn clue what to buy, they just buy random stuff and hope that it has some value. Spoiler, barely any of it will have any value down the road because there's a boatload of products being printed and barely any true collectors to pick them up. You can take my advice, or figure it out on your own. It'll all play out either way.

[@sunderlanTV]

New Junk Wax era is why

[@kato28t]

What website are you using ?

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

Cardladder

[@WestTexas_Cars_Cards_Comics]

Those Pedri and Gavi resellers 😭😭😭😭

[@petrawenzek3084]

The Wirtz Rookie Cards went up 📈📈📈📈📈 in Germany. Leverkusen won the Bundesliga!!!!!

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

Great year for him and Leverkusen, but he's an anomaly really. Not many players can have a combination of individual and team performance like he did.

[@ZiggyNo]

Great video and insights. I’ve actually made great money selling soccer. But I don’t think it’s a long term play. IMO there are so many better collectibles in soccer than cards. Autos are really the best value imo

[@pri5748]

The issue is the bloody football stickers in Europe.

[@MichaelDancification]

The issue is that the US thinks everything outside the US doesn't exist

[@johnniejay]

​@@MichaelDancification100% - thats the exact same reason why Americans think F1 cards are 'doomed to fail' too....even though it has a billion fans outside of the US and is looking to grow into China and India.

[@quentincherrier]

Why do you stay kind with modern cards ?

[@UsmntSoccerCards]

Huh?

[@f1sker_karma]

Great point about how its not cheap to collect the “goats” in other sports, and collectors go with Modern for the cheaper option. We do not have this situation here in Soccer due to us not building up through time. Interesting to see how things will balance out over 10+ year. Really enjoy all the vids/takes 🫡