Why only 30% of first round quarterbacks succeed

[@BrettKollmann]

QBs are hard to evaluate. But man if your team needs to find a good safety in the second round every year, I got you!

[@BrianGlaze]

Undefeated at 2nd round safeties lol

[@Primenumber19]

One things that makes QB scouting harder than other positions is layman scouts do not have access to the interviews team conduct with the players, their coaches and teammates. Justin Fields might be a genius, he might be lazy, he might be both. I can’t know because I never spoke to him.

[@versatillion15]

Brian Glaze like who?

[@haldworkin1027]

In other words, Jaquan Brisker to the Jets at the top of the 2nd?

[@davethomas1641]

How much of a 1st rounders success is dependent on the team that drafts them? Commented early, Brent addresses quite well.

[@funnyfacegamer1583]

This video shows how much respect we should have Derek carr and Matthew Stafford. These guys were drafted to disaster franchises and still manage to have good-to great seasons despite the constant turnover in coaches and players.

[@kevinhenry4047]

And this is why I disagree with Brett in saying that a quarterback in a bad situation will always fail. I’m not saying a young quarterback on a bad team has to be a pro bowler and make the playoffs but you can be put in bad situations and still at least look like a competent starter. Guys like Darnold and Rosen weren’t just mediocre or subpar, they ranked in the bottom in a lot of major passing categories and you can’t say that’s all on coaching and the supporting cast. They would’ve most likely struggled even with good teams.

[@HBG313]

@@kevinhenry4047 coaching and supporting cast effects alot

[@mactallica9293]

But those qbs combined for 0 playoff wins on those teams. Not really failures but can't reach their ceiling

[@Dawg-Bone]

Matt Ryan too

[@jeffredfern3744]

Talent wins out. I disagree with Brett's entire idea. It's circular logic, fateful bull$h*t, only these teams will have good QBs cause they are teams that are good.

[@kyokyo718]

My favorite Herbert story is when the Chargers gave him a more advanced playbook and he was glowing at the opportunity to actually use his brain; He's a 4.2 Biology major in college and Oregon football had him playing checkers on Saturdays.

[@incendiumaquila7605]

Not checkers UNO lmao

[@ektran4205]

mario cristobal just had a terrible qbc and pgc herbert's last 2 years at oregon, herbert got pep hamilton as a nfl rookie

[@margaretjiantonio939]

He was a scholar athlete. I think he chose to stay in college one more year.

[@NathanDean79]

Yea maybe he should have went to medical school instead.

[@Whoyouwishyouwere]

Too bad he can't hit water if he fell outta' a boat.

[@Patrick-tt3ig]

Love how Brett uses his past mistakes and learns from them, instead of burying them and considering himself a perfect genius. Everyone has to be able to do this, and most people can't.

[@Brownie1904]

Wich mistake did he do?

[@Patrick-tt3ig]

@@Brownie1904 just missed predictions. Not any serious mistakes or anything. Like when he mentioned not seeing Herbert as a first round talent

[@Brownie1904]

@@Patrick-tt3ig Ah. Ok. Thought I missed something big :D

[@Harbkuwsvjrefyukndsaxcbnjtewd]

Him and shomler are the best at owning their bad takes.

[@robertandrews6915]

People have to think they're correct. Look at how people will argue about the dumbest things and they don't care if their family never speaks to them again if they can walk away thinking they were right. I work with a girl who acts like she knows everything and anytime a manager brings up something wrong she'll reply something like oh I knew that. I've seen her do shit any when it gets brought up, she says it wasn't her. That kind of attitude annoys the shit out of me. You don't always have to be right, but at least admit you don't know something and people will understand (most of them). I have no problem admitting i was wrong so it's alien to me why someone has to think they're always in the right, even about things that really don't matter.

[@RaptorJezus27]

I’ll never forget the 2014 Draft. I said the Texans should’ve drafted Manziel 1st overall lmao

[@ugosmith7529]

Ooff, you dodged a bullet, signed: a browns fan

[@Sam-hv7kj]

I was so big on him 😭😭

[@RandomXbox]

Dawg😑

[@BrotherKnightSamuel]

i cried when the vikings passed on him! 😂

[@calebqueen2090]

I was so sad when the Cowboys took Zack Martin over him

[@BrianGlaze]

On a serious note, one of my first thoughts on this before I watch the whole video is that evaluating QBs is very difficult because the league, offenses,etc are constantly changing and evolving over time so if an evaluator's criteria isn't evolving, then they will miss a lot.

[@BrianGlaze]

Even then, you'll still miss because it's not just about evaluating well. There are so many factors that determine whether a QB will be successful

[@ce6ej]

Great point

[@bill2953]

It's even more difficult if you drink during the day and listen to people like Mel Kiper.

[@MaxPower-vf8kt]

Also the players are just that much better, in every way. If we view the approx. 72,000 NCAA players as a talent pool for NFL teams, less than 0.5% of players will be drafted/signed, fewer will make a 53-player team roster and maybe see game time. Meaning the difference in skill, speed and strength in the NFL makes almost makes it a different game. The QB position also benefits the most from imbalances between college teams. They can have the whole package, but their ability to perform is being largely boosted by the fact they’re a big fish, amongst a bigger school, playing in a small pond. Can they adapt, grow and survive when thrown in the ocean? They’re also the most consequential player on the team; the whole team is affected by their ability to perform at the required level. We hear the term “Franchise QB,” and many are drafted, expected to be the “Difference Maker,” a team needs to finally succeed. When they aren’t; are they a bust? Need more time? Or a different team/strategy/coach, like Stafford?

[@Mezmorizorz]

He kind of danced around it and I'm surprised he didn't mention it, but the real reason (imo anyway) that people fail to project QBs so much is that the important stuff isn't really on film at all. Namely, are you a hard worker, are you smart, and do you handle criticism well. Sometimes you can see indirect evidence of this. Like Mac Jones had a body fat percentage comparable to mine mid season his final year at Bama, so I wasn't very surprised to see him not adapt to DCs figuring him out. Similarly, Jayden Daniels has grown such a huge amount at LSU that's it hard to imagine anything but injury derailing him. Outside of extremes like that though, you have to rely on the college coaches being truthful with you about the player because you just can't know. Though there is something to be said about the high mobility, tuck it and run guys are good for how NFL teams like to run themselves nowadays. You don't actually need to have your rookie QB play, I think Green Bay has thoroughly debunked the notion that you do, but if you do have them play, the mobile guys are going to be more effective while they learn how to QB.

[@matthewmorzinski8910]

There is an argument to be made that it’s as important, if not more important, to develop the quarterbacks. Not just pick them. Example Josh Allen. He looked like a bust for the first couple year. Then Daboll and company developed him into a star

[@stibbs427]

@Josh 'Winter Soldier' Allen I disagree. His mechanics were absolutely horrible until just a couple years ago. His last two seasons have been his most accurate ever. And that includes college.

[@juanogando1901]

I mean did Daboll do that? Hmmmmm cause most teams do have a QB coach that works with the QBs. I thought Allen in the off-season just worked on this throwing motion.

[@RedMo46]

He also wore that... telemetry vest? Not sure what to call it, that analyzed his biomechanics, leading to him bouncing back heavily in terms of accuracy. And its shown

[@vsauce4678]

@Josh 'Winter Soldier' Allen no the defense and run game won games. Allen was horrid year 1

[@versatillion15]

Did they develop him or did he have high work ethic

[@EMan-hr5vf]

In the case of Herbert probably the most unnoticed factor that caused him to hit the ground running in the NFL aside from superior scheming was that back in Oregon, he was maintaining a 4.0 GPA in a difficult major while also being the starting qb. And when he got to the NFL he could put all of his brain power into football which caused his development to spike rapidly.

[@ektran4205]

PEP HAMILTON

[@FoxyKyle]

My QB philosophy: Draft the freak. If they bust, try it again. It’s the most important position in the game. Taking a conservative route out of fear, will limit the potential of a franchise for an era.

[@faceurhell]

I agree, but I think it's not just about freaks in terms of arm strength or athletic ability, but freaks in terms of being a competitor. Joe Montana, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are perfect examples of these kind of freaks (Joe being Cool and calm, Peyton being the definition of a field general, and Tom with that fire and drive).

[@t4d0W]

More like draft the freak you've seen/coached before when he was 14/15 and are confident about their instincts and takes well to coaching. That way you know their strengths and weaknesses and not try turn them to something in the pros that they are not. Because one constant of the QBs Kollmann screwed at evaluating was they turned into their best version of themselves beyond the college level.

[@JJ-zr6fu]

You don't get to do it more than twice. You're acting like Mahomes is there every year.

[@eli6797]

@@JJ-zr6fu even then, mahomes had some standout games in college but he wasn’t considered a generation talent or the “It” guy coming out of college. He fell into a phenomenal system and developed very well. The only top tier type talent I’ve seen coming out of college recently is tlawrence given the fact that he has the height and arm strength (so physically gifted), has the pro qb intangibles, and can dominate in the pass and run game. Obv he’s on a bad team at the moment but he’s a prime example of a qb you would dream for in every draft

[@justinmj6586]

@@faceurhell So find a once in a generation guy? Ok, if they were falling out of trees everyone would have one.

[@Evan-fw6wt]

its worth noting that most of these QBs like Allen and Mahomes were born into a fantastic system that was a perfect fit for them, however when Lamar took over for Baltimore the Ravens went from the most pass heavy offense under Flacco to the most run heavy in the league

[@stoneyeyeye]

Allen’s situation wasn’t ideal at first

[@Revealingstorm.]

@@stoneyeyeye the bills went to the playoffs the year before he was drafted

[@adamjv77]

@@Revealingstorm. and there was about 30% of the roster back from that team when Josh got there. They started a rebuild the season before and made the playoffs despite that with the help of a very easy schedule and some luck. They continued the teardown after that season and then drafted Josh to, basically, a new roster. Dude was throwing to Kelvin Benjamin as his #1 WR and Zay Jones as his #2... one of the worst WR tandems I can recall. Granted he wasn't great, but anyone who watched him that rookie season post elbow injury, saw a kid coming around.

[@Sebastian-rr6yu]

@@adamjv77 crazy how kelvin went to TE soon after that lmao

[@MrGhostface85]

@@Revealingstorm. The 2018 Buffalo Bills had a third of their cap space gone due to $53 million in dead cap, two of our starting O-linemen were gone due to sudden retirement leaving or offensive line to be arguably the worst in the league, our QB coach never coached at that position before (predominately a WRs coach), and the veteran QB in the room was...Nathan Peterman. Josh Allen wasn’t supposed to start for a while, but due to Peterman being himself, Josh Allen got to sit for one half and was forced to come out in the season opener against the Ravens during garbage time.

[@earlmcmanus194]

"Oregon ran screens 25% of the time...no NFL team has gotten close to that number", 2019 Cards sure seemed that high at times, and it was disappointing to see a 36Y.O. Larry Fitzgerald being fed screens because the offense as a whole was so limited.

[@eli6797]

@Donald Donald Ramsey was way too good when it came down to tackling RB’s and rbs in screen in particular, they were not going to get far running screens in that manner

[@usmnt4423]

I can’t wait for Brett to absolutely whiff on a big quarterback who’s a mechanically sound, polished pocket passer. The chaotic randomness of the NFL Draft demands it.

[@TheUnnamedAssailant]

Could be talking about Rosen or Darnold with that description, both were very sound and polished, both thrived in pro style offenses, both had good strong arms and great accuracy. By all accounts they should’ve thrived.

[@Examinn]

@@TheUnnamedAssailant darnild was far from polished in college lol, he had a big arm and that’s about it, jets just fell in love in the pre draft

[@josephbarlow5115]

Rosen was a polished pocket passer in college in a pro style offense

[@85isaboat53]

Bo nix has entered the chat

[@bengreg7795]

the tua and jalen hurts predictions coming true this year cracks me up, it proves that even when you’re wrong and you admit it, you’re still wrong

[@choiyatlam2552]

It was more about Brandon Staley and Joe Lombardi being absolute morons. They wasted Herbert’s talent by turning him into a check down machine while Staley making all the brain dead decisions. Hurts play on a super team though he was objectively a star. I wish Tua can stay healthy but I feel like teams caught up to him and McDaniel’s offense later in the season.

[@samuelpell2673]

Love that Rams v. Chiefs 2018 was on in the background, great game between two 1st round QBs

[@vamsisuggu6083]

I still watch it sometimes in the offseason to hype me up🤣

[@ericsnyder5427]

Check out JT O'Sullivan's breakdown of that game. You can find it on KZbin and its def worth watching...

[@samuelpell2673]

@@ericsnyder5427 saw it, loved it. good recommendation.

[@ericsnyder5427]

@@samuelpell2673 thanks yo. Another wicked good site i follow is All Things QB with Tim Jenkins. He is brief but well educated

[@usagoalie1234]

I think one of the other most difficult things is the fact you’re effectively trying to guess how someone who’s still effectively a kid is going to grow and mature and how they’ll react to suddenly being a millionaire… I agree with Brett’s final points, but at some level, you’re evaluating 23 year olds, and there is so much left to grow as a person and an athlete

[@bolbyballinger]

Plus, as Brett mentioned, coachability is one of the absolute most important things. And you can't really see that on film. Maybe you can find symptoms of it, but you won't ever see it unless you work with the guy.

[@walterhurdle9226]

Younger. Lamar was only 21 when he joined the Ravens. Trey Lance sat a whole year behind Garrapolo and is still only 22.

[@tenningale]

@@walterhurdle9226 True, Lance was only 20 when he was drafted and had his 2020 season canceled after a game. Alex Smith and A-Rod were 20 and 21.

[@rizkyanandita8227]

@@bolbyballinger This is why scouts job are harder than it seems. They would go cross country and talk to everyone that the prospect ever interact with.

[@t4d0W]

That perspective depends heavily where that QB gets drafted. If they are a top 1~5, congrats as they got a nice chunk of change coming for their QB contract. Lamar on the other hand was picked first round 32nd pick overall so he's only guaranteed 7.5m/4yr of his rookie deal until he exercised his 5th year option which pays him 23m. I tell you that because Darnold was picked first round 3rd overall so he has a nice 18.8m for his 5th year to go with his 4yr/30m base rookie contract. The disparity of the former who was an MVP to a dude who was picked at the right time and got signed to a fatter check.

[@BrianGlaze]

In all fairness in regards to the Justin Herbert pick, people are using hindsight to criticize you. No one outside of Oregon fans believed he would be great. There should be a lot of grace for QB evaluation.

[@elijahwise3060]

Exactly, he was trash at Oregon. Even the NFL analysts were not sold on him.

[@heimpai2282]

@@elijahwise3060 He was not trash smh..He didn't have 3 wr's drafted in the 1st round, hell none of his wr's got drafted..4 different systems in 4 seasons just in college..His junior year he was projected as the #1 pick but came back his senior year when lsu went on that insane run..

[@mactallica9293]

I mean he was a top pick for a reason lol he's similar to Allen physically

[@gregsudol5986]

@@heimpai2282 exactly lol. People still don’t get it. They can’t contextually comprehend what he dealt with at Oregon. The guy is a superstar

[@JJ-zr6fu]

He still isn't great though he puts up pretty stats but not wins.

[@ahagglund]

That's how fast things change. 9 months ago, you were catching flak for rating Hurts and Tua so highly. NOT EVEN A FULL SEASON later, they're two of the three legit MVP candidates in the league.

[@GookSquadGaming]

And see where we are at now hurts is a system qb and so is tua

[@603xxg]

@@GookSquadGaminghorrible take

[@Durgenheim]

"My mistake was putting my faith in these coaches that they knew what they were doing when, clearly, I don't think they realized what they had in Justin Herbert." This is exactly why Oregon fans soured on Mario Cristobal at the end of his tenure there.

[@colten53]

Cristobal can recruit but he sucks as a gameday coach. He had the PAC-12 on a silver platter the last two years with USC trending downwards, and he just kept losing games he shouldn’t have that kept them out of the College Football Playoff. He will get you to a NY6 Bowl, but I doubt he wins a Natty. Granted, I also said the something similar about Ed Orgeron, and the stars aligned perfectly for that one

[@thommy_optmax]

Hey Brett, as someone from Germany who never played any football or watched the game for quite a while, I'm learning a lot from your content to better understand this beautiful sport I fell in love with. Thanks a lot.

[@FamousDexxx]

Two things I was left pondering from your criteria at 17:20 1. If its "Destination over Everything", how does "bad franchises" approach picking QBs in the draft? Should they simply pick based on tools and coachability? Or have a bigger focus on leadership? (ie. I would probably say Burrow scores higher on leadership than tools) 2. In theory, Trey Lance should be the posterboy for these 3 criteria's, as he seemingly covers all three, so will be interesting to see how he pans out Great video as always Brett! Looking forward to draft szn!

[@RubenSilva-tk4yb]

"Bad franchises" should hire the right coach to run the right style/scheme O for the QB. They should also hire the right GM that will draft players to best support that scheme/style. Otherwise you end up with, at best, a Matt Stafford in Detroit situation.

[@kingarthur3236]

What it means is you can't turn a franchise around by just drafting a quarterback. You need a good coaching team (bonus points if their style matches up with the quarterback) and a general manager who can build a decent supporting cast.

[@Johncornwell103]

Bad teams if they truly want to become great is look at the talent they have and what it can do better than anyone else in the league to win games on each side of the ball. Then make that their priority. Even if they have the first pick in the draft and a Joe Burrow type of QB is there but there defense is best suited for QB pressure, and someone like Nick Bosa is also available you draft him instead of the QB. The 85 bears, 49ers in the 80s, Steel Curtain Steelers best exemplify what I mean.

[@Johncornwell103]

@Chris Morris Exactly.

[@jhvlen]

What I've learned from That Franchise Guy for that answer of how bad franchises should approach drafting QBs is that they straight up shouldn't draft one until they create a good situation. Look at the Lions; they're a textbook situation of what to do BEFORE drafting a QB rather than the Jags who hoped Trevor Lawrence would fix all of their problems; I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit becomes destination #1 for a draft prospect sooner rather than later. Similar situation with New York; instead of giving up on DJ off rip, bringing in Daboll and building a good *situation* to fairly evaluate that QB and if they don't see an elite ceiling, THEN finding the QB, rather than vice versa.

[@CreamyPesto505]

Herbert's college coaching was definitely a problem, but I think the thing that doesn't get talked about, as far as his development, is that he was a 4.0 student working on a difficult degree. He's an unquestionably intelligent dude, and gives off super nerd vibes, but at Oregon, his brain wasn't solely focused on football. As soon as he graduated, the only thing he had to worry about, was improving his game. When someone that smart puts all their attention on one thing, football in this case, you'll see rapid development and improvement.

[@abriaangel9986]

Sounds dangerous...for opposing teams lol!

[@pokedez748]

My favourite takes back on 2017 was the people who said Allen should switch to TE and Lamar to WR

[@mactallica9293]

All I heard was Allen had no pocket presence. Then rookie year he evaded so many sacks

[@PaulGaither]

Disagree about Rosen. He has had opportunities in the NFL. He was with SF and Shanahan, where he couldn't even compete against third string and forever practice squad players.

[@tominator028]

I also think Arizona killed his big ego/confidence. He had the potential but it’s too late and his confidence is shook. I always questioned his ability to lead an NFL team anyways. Seemed too arrogant and the vets wouldn’t have took that up very well.

[@JJ-zr6fu]

@@tominator028 He got his college coach fired his last season of college. That's how bad he was coming out.

[@colten53]

He was also in Tampa with Bruce Arians and Tom Brady.

[@jack90054]

@@colten53 And couldn't beat out Blaine fuckin Gabbert for the backup spot

[@ektran4205]

he was overdrafted

[@12from121]

intelligence is a super important quality that gets undervalued. Jared Goff is a prime example of why this matters. Personality and drive are important as well.

[@carbonzo6]

I like how Chris simms got all these right. He hasn’t missed since dak presscott

[@Soccercrazyigboman]

Dak walked into a great situation in Dallas. Any other place and he woulda flamed out.

[@yoboiboy4182]

@@Soccercrazyigboman dallas went 4-12 the year before dak. Three of the wins were from romo. The three backup qbs combined for 1 win.

[@ektran4205]

DAK JUST PLAYS LIKE A 3RD ROUNDER

[@bmac4]

It's tough because there is only one place on the roster for them to develop, and thats the starting QB spot. Tackles (both kinds, Guards, Receivers, Corners, and Safeties) can be positioned on multiple different sides; if your corner is struggling to cover the team's #1 receiver, you can position him on the other side for their other receivers to perhaps give him a place on the field. Many teams employ multiple RBs in a given game and some are specialists who cover third downs and short yardage situations. If your guy isnt ready to be the number one guy, there's often somewhere else on the field or somewhere else in the scheme for him. But a QB is either starting on the field, every single offensive play (and sometimes even on special teams), or he's holding a clipboard. Playbooks are designed around them more than anyone. The only other position I think that is comparatively competitive is Kicker, but that's a specialist position for fewer than 10 primary plays in a game (so not counting kickoffs). And QBs arent typically given time anymore; if your guy sucks year one, he's often called a bust. Its a hard position to develop and they rarely get the chance to have that space to get better. Going to a good org and system is huge.

[@slovely8]

Brett, this is a fantastic video, really enjoy this style of reflective evaluation. Keep up the great work, glad to see the channel booming.

[@thurantpnh6687]

One year later, projecting Tua and Jalen Hurts as better QBs isn't as crazy as it once was.

[@booker4984]

Jalen hurts and Tua are not elite QV’s

[@FilmScoutingEnthusiast]

Brett I love this video. Now we gotta hear both 1) your take on last years quarterbacks based on your new grading system 2) what landing spots could setup a toolsy QB for great success Bet it becomes you’re most watched video(s) ever!

[@A.F.Whitepigeon]

2) The Steelers. Arguably the best-run franchise in the leage. And their long-time starting QB just retired.

[@elpidio9724]

I really love this cuz the last half decade of quarterbacks has really made me evaluate what I’m missing, what my blind spots are and how unseen biases may be clouding how I see a lot of these guys coming into the draft.

[@BrianGlaze]

Who would have thought....evaluating QBs is incredibly difficult 🤔 😅

[@andrewputnam2717]

It's almost like it's a very dynamic position

[@JJ-zr6fu]

There would be a better hit rate if the NFL wasn't so desperate for QBs. Basically if you don't have a future hall of famer at QB you're looking for one. No other position needs that type of skill level.

[@SomeOfTheJuice]

Maybe it's just because I don't come from a sports background, but I'm glad you brought up what is something I've never understood in drafting: that destination is everything. Not every QB is going to excel with every team. It's something that has baffled me when teams of very differing styles and differing coaching philosophies are vying for the same QB. Situation matters, and some QBs that look like busts right now honestly probably wouldn't be if they were drafted by the right team for their style, and yet that aspect just got continuously overlooked the entire way through.

[@unc54]

The 2017 NFL Draft convinced me that the situation matters more than the prospect. Send Watson and especially Mahomes to Chicago and I doubt they fare much better than Trubisky.

[@LUVx4L]

interesting take

[@LdyVder]

I would say the same about 2005 draft when the talking heads were all debating who should be the #1 overall pick, Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers. I doubt very much Rodgers would be the player he is today if not drafted by Green Bay and was taken by San Francisco instead.

[@urmother4843]

Texans were a worse situation

[@fernandotadeoperezcapistra8504]

@@urmother4843No, Texans were in a good situation. They had the #1 defense in 2016, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller as your WR, Duane Brown as you LT, Lamar Miller as RB, and O'Brien was a decent coach at that point. The bears were different. A coach who was past his prime, Your receiver was Kendall Wright, and a bad o-line.

[@MustacheDLuffy]

Mitchell Trubisky beat Deshaun Watson 36-7 in 2020 so I doubt that. Mahomes yes

[@Corvilux52]

There's a lot of variables in most positions but there's a lot more in QBs. System, surrounding talent, talent of the QB itself, chemistry, there's a lot. It's easy to get it wrong. It the end of the day it's a team sport. It's never just one guy. QBs don't win rings, it takes a whole team effort.

[@Enwhycee]

So to sum it up, fit matters when drafting a QB. Or it takes a good coach to adjust schemes and playbooks to fit the QBs style

[@samuelault4723]

I think people really started to wake up to the “destination over everything” with the 2021 draft. I remember seeing tons of takes that would say the most successful Qbs will be Tlaw and whoever goes to the 49ers

[@odysseus1660]

The first year I actually got in to the draft, I chose Herbert as my guy, i saw all the flack he was getting without anyone taking in to account all the things he had to deal with during his college career. I now have no desire to try and predict the draft again im just going to keep my 100% record

[@rizkyanandita8227]

Draft is a crab shoots. Get out while you are ahead.

[@elijahwise3060]

What's your QB ranking this year ?

[@odysseus1660]

@@rizkyanandita8227 yeah it really is, it depends on situation unless you're a special talent

[@odysseus1660]

@@elijahwise3060 I really like Malik Willis but im heavily biased as a steelers fan and wanting us to have a QB I might actually like as a person, but honestly I have no clue about this class

[@elijahwise3060]

@@odysseus1660 Yeah, he's got a lot of potential, I like Corral too even though people are low on him. Pickett has a lower sealing but he can be a good starter in NFL too me like Derek Carr. I can already imagine myself next year reading this and looking like a clown lol.

[@TheLordNugget]

I remember watching Josh Allen's college plays and thinking "he's making the same mistakes as Jay Cutler". He did it in more than one game too. I'd figured out other qbs people thought were great, so I trusted my instincts when I thought I'd seen something in Allen that was too egregious. In the end I couldn't have been more wrong. Then again, if he had been drafted by the Bears, I think I'd have had him correctly figured out. So this again establishes the fact that Chicago is doomed because they never seem to hire coaches and personnel who actually know what they are doing.

[@jucerz]

Rewatching this video a year later as a Packers fan, destination is super important. Jordan Love wouldn't be the same player if he went to a struggling franchise

[@peotski]

As a Wisconsin Badger fan, I was unsure what to think of Herbert until I saw him single handedly dismantle one of our best defenses in the Rose Bowl. I was sold and knew he was QB2 behind Burrow.

[@BrodyKramer]

Shit he’s QB1 from the draft and really always has been

[@pigwindow]

Would love to see you do a video on Zach Wilson and his rookie struggles. A lot to tap into there

[@zuxzux]

It seems like a pretty strong argument can be made that the situation a QB gets drafted into can really determine an entire career. Get drafted to a bad team, with poor management, subpar coaching, and lack of roster talent (particular O-line) and that QB is going to struggle and likely fail.

[@kyleeverly9243]

14:50, to be fair, Tua and Hurtz are looking good this year

[@zachle591]

I came to say the exact thing when I heard him say that lol

[@rj6110]

I was going to complain about Jared Goff being a borderline hit but I see this is a year old. I think he's earned it now!

[@thomascafc]

Yeah he played so well this year

[@Freedomfromfailure]

Gotta give you props, man. When you mess up, you point it out and learn from it. In today's world, that is increasingly rare. There is nothing wrong with having a bad take - but too many "analysts" try to hide it and pretend it never happened. I've followed you for a few years now and now I'm reminded why. Thanks for the work you do!

[@ericclaeyborn3600]

I had Herbert as my top QB in the draft, and everyone thought I was crazy. Now, he's the best young QB in the NFL, imo.

[@dhazelwood85]

20/20 hindsight on this video... Why Herbert is so much better that Hurts and Tua not aging great right now. Might need to reflect on the lessons learned in this reflection :p

[@nathanrivera4953]

I think Cris simms has the best grasp on QBs looking back on his track record.

[@jamesnevius2276]

Yeah people can't stand simms some reason but ig you actually check the history of these guys hes been by far the best at predicting qbs.

[@purpledurple621]

I was literally going to comment this

[@TheSoundwave92]

Chris Simms got a lot of flack for putting Lamar as his qb1 in 2018 which wasn't exactly wrong looking back but he didn't have the ridiculous ceiling that Allen has. But he is actually really good at evaluating QBs

[@williejohnson5172]

@@TheSoundwave92 : Lamar was Heisman Trophy winner, unanimous MVP, has a better winning percentage than Allen and went to the playoff 3 straight seasons before getting injured, and you are still talking about Allen's ceiling being ridiculously higher than Jackson's. Allen hasn't even reached Lamar's floor yet. Brett didn't mention this aspect of qb evaluation. The euphemistic "Face of the Franchise" syndrome. The perception that you so eloquently articulated. That's why QB's like Daniel Jones, and Rosen, and Darnold and Drew Lock can get drafted so high in the draft. Hell even Brett is talking nonsense about the team carrying Lamar when it was Lamar who took over a failing losing Flacco offense, and took the Ravens to the playoffs saving Harbaugh's job. Too many people get blinded by the "narrative" put out by the media and fail to evaluate these qbs on their own merits. Simms is good at filtering out the BS and even he admits he occasionally has gotten caught up in the narratives.

[@JJ-zr6fu]

@@williejohnson5172 Yes because Jackson will breakdown and will have to really change his game during the same time Allen is really starting to learn the finite details of his game.

[@ziwuri]

You being a film major explains so much about why your videos are so enjoyable to watch even though I don't watch football.

[@maxstuart8481]

New comment, about the last point you made of traits for a successful QB: Destination. As a Browns fan, this is why I have no problem with the Browns taking Baker over Allen and Jackson… they are Better QBs, but I truly believe Baker is the only one who had the ability to overcome that pressure. Both Lamar and Josh had great, stable staffs that were patient and helped them develop. Baker has been with 4 HCs now, and while not perfect, he has brought Cleveland out of the dweller and we’re at least middle class now. For that, I will always have love for Baker.

[@jtpromolab]

The problem with evaluating a QB is that destination has more to do with the QBs success than the actual QB himself. Every single first round pick could have been successful IF they went to the right team. But, we don't evaluate the teams that are picking, we just evaluate the QB expecting them to develope in every system. I agree with you on Baker. I don't think ANYONE but Baker could have found any success in Cleveland. Unfortunately for Baker, he was drafted to a dumpster fire and somehow that becomes his fault when the fan base and media don't see development like they want.

[@maxstuart8481]

@@jtpromolab I agree. I don’t think anyone would say that Baker ever had the upside of Allen or Lamar, but I think it’s fair to say that his upside has been hindered by the incompetence of the Browns organization. That’s why, as a Browns fan, I am more than willing to see what he offers this season. I’m terrified that the Browns are going to let him go and he’s going to make us pay. Having a Kirk Cousins/Derek Carr is a good thing for a franchise, and I fear Browns fans won’t know a good thing until it’s gone.

[@martimxavier9690]

@@maxstuart8481 What's your take now that he's most likely gone and you guys have Watson?

[@maxstuart8481]

@@martimxavier9690 I still am incredibly grateful for what Baker did for the Browns. Watson is better of course, but I stand by the fact that Baker was one of a kind in terms of dealing with the turmoil the Browns put him through, and bringing stability to the team at the most important position for 4 years. I may be off on this, but Baker has started more games for the Browns than any other QB since they returned. Baker gave me my best memories as a Browns fan so far. People love to hate him, and I guess I understand why, but I’ll always think of Baker well and root for him wherever he goes.

[@jamesdunn1641]

Thank you very much for this video. It is rare to find a draft analyst who admits any shortcomings. As a fan I often wonder how so many guys can be great in college and look totally lost once they get to the pros. My sneaky suspicion was always that the players went to the wrong team. The old school form of coaching all players really of "my way or the highway" probably causes at least a third of why so many players, with decent potential bust out of the NFL. Thanks again for your honesty.

[@lukedaboss336]

14:50 honestly it’s been a good take this season

[@lukedaboss336]

great*

[@Boog1137]

A system that's so sensitive to intial conditions that over time the evolution of that system resembles randomness, is a *chaotic* system. It's not that player evaluations aren't theoretically deterministic (i.e. they're not random); if we could know every detail about a player athletically, psychologically, etc etc, it follows that we would be able to perfectly predict the player they would become; but in practice there are so many different factors that could drastically alter the trajectory of a players development that it feels random.

[@missilesaway]

Tua and Hurts lookin' pretty good now.

[@karterguy06]

Tua and Hurts looking really good now

[@mars_sumner]

From my observation, for whatever that’s worth, is that the best thing an NFL team can do for any qb they pick to have the best chance to succeed in the league is to have 3 things present: 1. a veteran ahead of them to learn from and then inherit the starting position after a year or two, 2. have as complete a team possible focusing on offense an o line to protect him and make any rb look good and a defense to set up short field position and have the qb’s back in case of any turnover, and 3. a coaching staff that is patient and tailors the offense to the strengths of the qb. The best examples of this are the Packers with Aaron Rodgers and the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes. There’s never a guarantee of success but I believe that those things help more than anything else

[@Luke-zj1ku]

Ranking Tua and Hurts above Herbert does not seem so crazy after this year. Maybe not the right choice but CERTAINLY not a crazy choice.

[@ektran4205]

flores vs mcdaniel

[@austin.abercrombie]

to be fair, tua and hurts are doing amazing this year. as an eagles fan, i’d still say herbert is better as of right now though

[@zackhurwitz9441]

This is why I strive to challenge the term "bust", especially when it comes to QBs. Ryan Tannehil isn't a franchise QB, however, he was able to find some success later with the Titans after backing up Mariota and being in a very QB friendly situation. With that being said, don't write off Rosen and Darnold yet. You never know.

[@Benjiizus]

Rosen is probably cooked. Darnold still has promise if he can fix his turnover issues

[@Metal-y4y]

He had a couple of good years on some bad dolphins teams to

[@t4d0W]

@@Benjiizus I think Darnold's best situation being himself is a stacked squad. And I dunno if other teams have the assets to part to take his contract and have a plan B backup.

[@JJ-zr6fu]

Tannehill is a franchise QB he was a top 15 QB in Miami despite them sucking then walks into Tennessee and they're playoff team. I think sometimes QBs aren't given enough of a shot but Rosen is a bust 3 teams have given him hard looks and passed on him. Darnold I hope gets a shot.

[@Ghostface2point0]

I remember being in a Chargers fan group on FB right after the draft and being worried that Herbert might not have been the right pick for the very reasons you and a few other extremely intelligent analysts pointed out. There was one guy who was actually an Oregon fan and he swore up and down that their whole coaching staff (but ESPECIALLY the head coach) were incompetent bumbling fools who had wasted Herbert's immense talent and holy shit did that guy hit the nail on the head

[@showtimesportsmedia6906]

I remember liking Dak before his draft and was happy when he got him. I thought he got drafted a round too low IMO

[@plainrock-ik3se]

I'm a first time watcher of your video and I like how real you are and able to compare and learn from your mistakes very good video

[@BrettKollmann]

Thank you!

[@paulknittel4815]

I mean, at least the Tua & Hurts take didn't age all too bad...

[@ciarandudley3455]

Your transparency and self reflection lead to an amazing video that welcomes people to this wonderful game rather than making them feel stupid or like they can’t have an opinion because they were wrong once. Awesome video awesome creator.

[@adamdwyer776]

It’s getting harder with 80% of defensive first rounders coming from a handful of teams, college qbs are playing against some bad defenders. So most of their film and stats are actually garbage. Location location is huge as well some qbs are good enough to overcome a bad team. Most teams with a stable qb position don’t draft a qb so rookie qbs keep going to the same poorly run teams.

[@t4d0W]

Its not even that these stable teams can't draft a young QB. They just perform well enough that they are outside the top 10 range where these young QBs are going to be around and are still willing to use their mid/late round pick to improve their team with the best player or trade down and get more proven talent to fill in the gaps. But I think with the Rams move that it may shift a precedence where teams who are 'good' should just not value their 1st round picks that highly. Or have bad luck/injury year and finish with 3-5 wins to get to pick in a QB draft class to get a shot.

[@DjDaDj3]

A lot of people in general could learn a lot from Brett in this video. Someone admitting they were wrong. analyzing why and how they were wrong, then coming to a conclusion on how to improve. Great stuff.

[@TheHooft]

watching this now not so sure you were wrong about Jalen and Tua being better.

[@timothystamm3200]

To add support for this the Bears T formation, which almost all modern offenses descend from, was designed for a Single-Wing Tailback to be converted to quarterback, and Glenn Scobey "Pop" Warner designed the Single-Wing Tailback position and arguably the formation for Jim Thorpe, who was not just American Football's first great star but an Olympic Athletics gold medalist.

[@reallifelebowski4732]

Your comment is too spot on and sophisticated for 90% of these football illiterates to understand

[@ektran4205]

dennis erikson offense

[@XNINEZERO]

Herbert as not a first round pick is still not as bad as Kizer over Watson and Mahomes. That was an awful take, even for then, coming from someone who still largely believes in those "old school" QB evaluation criteria. Kizer stunk in college, particularly in accuracy and footwork. It was obvious he was going to be a zero.

[@colten53]

He loved Christian Hackenberg too. That one confused me even back then, and I’m a Penn State fan. I believe he also loved the Osweiler trade to Houston at first too

[@nelsonw2096]

As an Oregon alumni and football fan I agreed with your assessment and was happy that we were both wrong. I was at that ASU game that you and a couple of others broke down and pointed to in your evaluation. In retrospect there were a couple of other games where we should have noticed that the play calling indicated that there was little confidence in JH. He has since proven all of those doubts to be wrong. In the event that you are watching a Miami QB in the future you should keep my last two sentences in mind.

[@matthewdigiacomo2580]

I saw Herbert and Allen being this good. To me, the two biggest keys to being a great QB is the ability to read a defense and the ability to make the throws. You can work with a QB on reading a defense. But you can not teach the arm. Plus... a great arm can help you cover up some of your other shortcomings. In my mock drafts, I had the Browns taking Allen No. 1 overall and I had the Dolphins taking Herbert (I felt Joe Burrow was the absolute No. 1 pick). Also, I am not sure if I was the only person, but certainly I had to be on a short list of people that thought Roethlisberger was the best QB in the 2004 draft.

[@YodaSmokes]

The problem with the NFL is there are people who don’t even watch football (majority of the owners) are telling the GMs who to draft. The good teams have owners who pay attention to football or don’t get involved. Jerry Jones being the exception of an overly involved owner who knows football. But let’s his old age and arrogance get in the way.

[@RarelyEvenn]

Yep. Tom Brady: 6th round pick Joe Montana: 3rd round pick Russelll Wilson: 3rd round pick. None of these teams REALLY know what they're doing when it comes to drafting QBs, or drafting in general sometimes.

[@TheNightOwlKS]

I think that Brady splitting time with Drew Henson did more to damage his draft stock than anything else, & for the next two decades he took that out on the entire league

[@RarelyEvenn]

@@TheNightOwlKS Yep. He stayed bitter about it, and it fueled him.

[@robdowns9339]

Great Video, love the humility. I love how you communicate your thinking, so you always have credibility! 2017 draft (Bear's fan) watched excessive film on that class, I landed on Trubisky, and we got my guy (Not a fan of trade up). I couldn't dismiss Watson or Maholmes, but I could dismiss Kizer as a one guy lock on, and never move off his guy. I guess my youtube scouting personal keys is arm talent, short throw accuracy, escapability, and seeing players move through reads. 2021 - Fields his A+ in arm talent, accuracy, escapability (kinda of, he is fast, but not slippery), but reads.... he looks for big plays and takes too many sacks because he doesn't get rid of the ball.

[@Ashurhadsrubal]

Rating Tua and Hurts above Herbert isn't looking so bad now

[@abriaangel]

Still sucks tbh.

[@jay2thaudy]

You were 100% correct about Tua and Hurts.

[@RaymondGOAT]

I think you should re-visit the Tua,Hurts, and Herbert take now that all 3 looking good…I mean Tua has health issue but we knew that from the start

[@Sylvidian]

We are 10 weeks into the 2022 season, a bit more than halfway, and suddenly, your Tua and Hurts over Herbert take doesn't seem so bad anymore, hahaha. However, I'm just a casual fan, so I'm not going to say they are better QBs than Herbert, but I do think that picking them over Herbert can be argued for because, as you said, DESTINATION IS EVERYTHING. However, even guys like Fields and Lawrence, who were seen as busts initially, now seem to be trending upwards when they got a better supporting cast/coaching staff. So, it seems as if that Destination matters, but can also be improved to make picks seem better. Just an interesting thought I wanted to share.

[@jojokobayashi2637]

He admitted how bad of a take him saying tua and hurts are better than herbert and then they absolutely turned up this year 😭

[@jdagreat4595]

You also have to take into account teams are now drafting qb that fit their schemes vs their ability.

[@full5rounds449]

I've always thought that, all else equal, going in the latter half of the first round is the sweet spot for a QB to develop as they are less likely to be killed in the first year due to a bad O line. That being said, the mental flexibility of the coaching staff is critical as well. Too many old-school coaches won't adapt their offence to the QB in the slightest way. I think that Josh and Lamar would have been busts in the offences of hard-headed coaches like Mike Shanahan for example.

[@JayTerra28]

You’re the first person on the internet that has my exact thinking! If I’m a college qB honestly I would want to go 10th and below in the first, because that team is more likely to have better situations

[@jeffreytam7684]

Excellent deconstruction of both an extremely interesting topic, while also being humble and pointing out how the league and your beliefs have changed

[@nathanielstuart4226]

Idk… this season it’s looking like you might’ve been at least close on Hurts & Tua…

[@JakeSchyvinckNFL]

I really dig the transparency Brett! I've gotten to the point where I often say "I don't like this QB relative to consensus, he's probably going to be pretty good" lol. The evolving process of every position and the NFL and schemes in general is fascinating.

[@chrisherre7107]

Chris Simms may miss on every other position but he is by far the best at evaluating QBs.

[@stibbs427]

He also changes his list several times a year. So he's bound to hit on one eventually.

[@vsauce4678]

This dude had Kellen Mond as qb 3 who I believe Zimmer laughed when asked if he would play. So I think Simms is a lucky dude. Cause no tape implied Allen or Herbert would be good.

[@chrisherre7107]

@@stibbs427 he's flipped Allen and Lamar and Tua and Jordan Love, but was still extremly high on Mahomes, Allen, Lamar and Herbert while having considerable questions about Rosen, Darnold, Tua, Haskins and Baker. He knows his stuff (about QBs at least)

[@chrisherre7107]

@@vsauce4678 we haven't seen Mond yet

[@chrisherre7107]

@@vsauce4678 listen to his podcast. Everything he said about Herbert was true (he mentioned the exact things about the Oregon offense Brett just told us, difference being he did it before the draft) Also yes, he took a chance on Allen's talent but added he was extremly raw

[@dalelee7441]

There was an article written long ago by Malcolm Gladwell in The New Yorker where he argued that nobody really understands the criteria for predicting NFL QB success (he claimed predicting who would become an elite school teacher was similarly unpredictable). A big difference between then and now would be the consistency that's developed between the pro and college game which you address here. But I think there could be a lot of truth in the idea that even our best predictive models are close to worthless. Still appreciate the humility and self-reflection that you bring to the table as it's the only way the model will ever improve.

[@BrownsBackerJL46]

I’ve been wondering this the past couple of years if it’s really the players “ fault “ most of the time and your totally correct I think

[@Arik_Lynn]

Instant Brett Kollmann classic. One of my favorite videos in months. Much love. Wow.

[@averagejoe8849]

That Tua and Hurts take is looking spot on now.

[@vy7357]

I'd be curious to see if the hit rate for first round QBs is significantly different than the hit rate for first rounders in general. It certainly feels that the first round selections, for all the hype they get, are not sure things, which is why you can see the Rams' reasoning for trading away those first round selections for proven talent.

[@t4d0W]

The Rams picks are an in a different situation because by virtue they have late 1sts anyway. They can't even pick top 3~5 to try crack at another young QB prospect. So I guess the Rams upsold Goff AND their picks to another team with a true proven talent at QB in Stafford.

[@vy7357]

@@t4d0W Fair point on the picks being late first rounders anyways. It's important to remember that Goff was not an asset in that trade, the Rams had to add another first round pick for Detroit to take that contract.

[@phate53]

I have a ton of respect for your intellectual humility and honesty!

[@RKGrizz]

Herbert and Rosen are my biggest misses in the past 10 years. I had Herbert as a 2nd/3rd round QB primarily because I was applying lessons learned during my Rosen evaluation. Herbert did not improve much over his 4 year tenure at Oregon much like how Rosen was his best during his freshman season. Seeing that many snaps without tangible statistical or mechanical improvement scared me off his talent.

[@MNZGamin]

Rosen wasn’t given a chance in the NFL to be honest. Dude was given a worse hand than maybe any first round QB in recent memory

[@t4d0W]

@@MNZGamin Now I think of it the timing of guys like him who turn to 'what if' stories by arriving in bad spots makes me think. Because stable NFL franchises despite having a need for QB aren't going for retreads unless Rosen specifically has something that pops out about him. They are going to keep moving forward or address the QB situation in the way those current NFL franchise regimes want to move forward.

[@t4d0W]

Point 2 and 3 are hand in hand and are more important than ever. The point about the college-pro offense being pretty much the same now is the key to all that. I think it has also become key to franchises who know this and have optimized the scouting/coaching on the offensive side of the ball to help identify their QB and get the most out of them at the pro level before their second contract. It also shows that unless constant bottom feeder franchises like the Jets, Panthers, Jaguars, Lions, Dolphins and such improve their execs/staff to create more long term stability, they will stay being talent feeder systems for better competitive teams with the better infrastructure.

[@spooky4892]

I put Herbert above burrow during that draft because he beat my high school qb Carson strong at Nevada by 70

[@ektran4205]

burrow had better coaching at ohio state the herbert had at oregon

[@maaliemaal1373]

It’s a TEAM sport and most organizations fall for the lie that top ten QBs don’t need help to be successful! If you don’t have a good Oline “oh a top ten QB makes the line better” If you don’t have any WRs “oh a top ten QB makes the WRs better” We have to stop with this terrible narrative because it doesn’t provide CONTEXT!!! Can a top tier QB survive in certain unfortunate situations….yes, but it doesn’t lead to success. EVERY QB NEEDS HELP!!!! Let’s stop acting like the Greats Don’t 🙏

[@idiotshittiot]

Herbert is just an outlier. I've been a fan since he was drafted. He's just, different. He doesn't use his rocket arm as a "flashy" symbol. He uses it intelligently.

[@MultiBluedog123]

Can’t wait for draft evaluation videos coming up ! Maybe the best time of the year on this channel.

[@supadupa6891]

This is a knockout video man! You truly exposed the bullshit buzzwords these media draft talking heads use and these wannabe qb experts on the couch like to use; polished, pocket passers, prostyle offense, can make all the throws, etc. I also think a lot of these old leftover old guard scouts with old ways of thinking refuse to change their way of thinking and that's why qbs like Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky and Sam Darnald fail and Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson succeed. As for Justin Herbert and Pat Mahomes, they were hit with the Oregon and Texas Tech stereotypes as past qbs from those schools never been great. But you nailed it. What TRULY matters is; 1. Physical tools 2. Coachability 3. Destination Good talent + good coaching + good front office = success

[@chrissimon3790]

Work ethic goes at the top but yeah I agree

[@fanboy50]

One of the things I wonder about drafting QBs is that, important as destination is, whether most organizations have the capacity to recognize whether or not they're a good fit for a player. Sometimes you get cases where an organization really commits to remaking itself because they believe in a prospect (see: Baltimore, Kansas City), but I wonder how common that is; the ghastly success rate for early-round QBs would suggest that a lot of teams are actually really bad at gauging player fit to system. I know this video is about QBs, but it would be interesting to see you dive into this topic when it comes to drafting in general, because it kind of seems that the teams that reliably perform best in the draft are the ones that know their needs and their fits best and don't let themselves be awed by talents that just don't fit them well and aren't load-bearing enough to be worth reworking themselves around.

[@jadonnwilliams3135]

Damn bro u gotta go take a look at this video again. Jalen hurts and Tua both might actually be better than Herbert now

[@whac1c]

I'm not a professional by any means, but most times I talk about QBs getting drafted, my gut is almost undefeated in if they're gonna succeed in the NFL. Darnold I knew was a bust before he was even drafted, Jones was gonna be mediocre (got that right), and Lamar had the highest potential. Only thing I got wrong was Josh Allen, I thought he was gonna be slightly above average, but as we know he's a lot better than that. But when it comes to evaluating QBs, go with your gut. You know a good QB when you see one, don't get into analytics with them.