Why so many people think property prices will fall in 2025 (It's logical)

Want to find out how our buyers agency can help. Book a complementary consult here 👇
www.investment...
Looking for a blueprint on how to build passive income through property? Then get a copy of my book free (both the digital and audio versions) 👇
www.nirobook.c...
---
Financial disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor and the opinions I share in this video are purely my opinions. This is not to be considered personal advice as it is general in nature.

[@galahad6001]

You said it ...!! It sounds logical that property will at least stabilise ...😅 But it still keep defies logic... ??? Just for the record I have been a builder for 40 years and the undersupply issues have not changed in 40 years I learnt these short falls at Tafe in 1986 .. I'm currently buying .. and I can see how the real estate agents play into the picture they are just drumming it up .. FOMO .. So this story works both ways .. Its just nuts .. the whole industry ...

[@InvestmentRiseTV]

Thank you

[@trythis2821]

Mind if I ask how many properties you have?

[@Clluthu]

That's still a big if interest rates fall. So much uncertainty in the economy the only ones saying otherwise are the ones profiting from the misery. Giving them false hope to hold onto so the market doesn't just collapse. A lot of homes are just hanging on with a dim ray of hope fed to them.

[@InfinityIsland2203]

They will fall. People who understand how the monetary system is designed in Australia, UK, Canada, USA etc are acutely aware that this system cannot function without near-zero intertest rate and perpetual money creation. We have a credit based system. Shortly after credit stops entirely, this system crashes. That is why regardless of how high inflation remains in Australia, RBA will succumb and go back to QE, helicopter money and zero if not negative interest rate. Those who do not hedge their cash into various assets will lose the money very quick and very soon.

[@jemszjemsz]

Virtually the only buy signal is hope on migration going up or sustaining student numbers. Export commodities are looking very weak...

[@Redhotrock]

Before covid economist were predicting “Either Oz dollar will collapse/loose purchasing power or house prices will come down - and politicians will do the former” That’s exactly what politicians have done, sacrificed oz dollar purchasing power to keep housing prices high.

[@triplea007]

Finally someone says it. This is what I've been explaining to naysayers. Don't project future growth/decline based on the median income of the general population, but on the median income of those who CAN afford to buy. With our current level of supply, we have more than enough people who CAN afford to buy to acquire the full stock of available properties.

[@InvestmentRiseTV]

Absolutely. Thanks for your feedback

[@lenastle8764]

I bought a 4-2-2 in Cairns 8months ago and it has risen approximately 13%. Even flood damaged properties are only a few days on the market. Very few new builds. A health sector exploding. Southerners and foreigners moving to a small beautiful city with an international airport.

[@peterforsyth962]

Delusional

[@jism1125]

Houses will keep going up

[@akshaygovindraj5079]

The biggest gap in all the analysis out there are the holiday homes which no one is looking into. Walk along any beach in Adelaide and 6/10 houses are empty, i.e. holiday homes that are occupied just during summer. The supply is artificially held back by few people buying 5, 10 or more homes who will struggle when the underlying asset loses value similar to what happened in the US in 2008. The only thing keeping this fan burning is the FOMO being driven by the banks, government, media who all stand to gain by keeping house prices high as it's such a large component of the Australian GDP. This makes sense in a country like Hong kong/ Singapore where there's no where else to go in terms of building new cities or house. Australia only has 2% of its land occupied which no one seems to acknowledge in all this bitcoin like hype being gicen to 'owning a house'. Something is going to give soon, that's logical. How it plays out is what we need to wait and watch for.

[@cromeakin9396]

Nero its fascinating how we are not going back to more people per household. Even my sister who was renting in a sharehouse has moved into a rental where she is the only tenant. I assumed with increasing rents and cost of living we'd see increases in household size 🤯

[@JT-su7fd]

As our population is not growing naturally (i.e. Australians aren't having as many kids) and the population is getting older, the stats are really showing the organic growth and new Australians can't go back to family homes because they're first gen migrants. Also, as the population is getting older, downsizing makes it difficult to move back in. Not the case with middle age parents perhaps, but when I was younger I know I didn't want my lifestyle cramped 😂

[@youtoob8166]

The government should take away the capital gains discount and bring in a inheritance tax at 30% and use the money for government housing projects to stimulate the economy when we hit gfc 2 in 2025 .the mining cash cow is ending and it will smash our economy

[@flingy]

Excellent analysis and explanation, I share these same views. I've been listening to you for a while on social media and what you say is always logical and well explained.

[@trythis2821]

Mostly good but sometimes his math assumptions are a bit off, case in point rent will increase $50 every year and can keep buying another investment property at a set interval without taking into account inflation. Not going to get the same house for the same price in the same type of location.

[@trythis2821]

Was going to buy a property over one year ago and got cold feet at the last minute. My story has a happy ending in that we decided to go ahead and buy. That simple decision has made us at least 100K better off. Sure, property prices might fall but as long as there is record immigration, I can't see it happening anytime soon.

[@JT-su7fd]

The point isn't how far or how hard it crashes, but how son it recovers and how well you can hold on. Only the market crashes after all, not the quality of the property... The saying goes that it's time in the market, not timing the market.

[@trythis2821]

@@JT-su7fd Makes sense time in the market. As long as I am working and have tenants all is ticking along nicely. If market comes down enough may get another investment property. Friend of mine already retired as has too many investment properties and wasn't worth paying income tax in addition to receiving rental income.

[@peterforsyth962]

A strategy that relies on record immigration is fraught with DANGER' Good luck.

[@jism1125]

If prices fall , you wouldn't notice.

[@user-tl6wd8cb1o]

Nonsense 😂 Example is USA where house prices were too high in 2008. Australian Household debt is not sustainable in long term. House building is low doesn’t mean harry will buy 2 million dollar house. Demand and supply only matter in good economic environment. Time will answer this nonsense accurately

[@wmrajput]

This is a simple fact no one wants to acknowledge. People cannot just keep spending a higher and higher portion of their after tax income on mortgages. How high is it going to go? 50 % 60% 70%? At some.stage the political ramifications become too much. And we are already seeing the curbs on immigration.

[@peterforsyth962]

Genius

[@madhavamadhav6470]

New builds are low population growth is higher approvals data shows more demand

[@cryptoslacker-464]

I don't think the number of people analysis is correct 🤔 You have to have enough people with the funds to buy or the high wages to go into Debt. While I do agree house prices will likely keep raising. Mainly because our current system rewards the top 20 percent. They will buy all the supply and rent it out to the poor. Thus keeping the wealth to themselves

[@JT-su7fd]

Which is why it's such a great vehicle for building wealth...

[@agostinhomartins8373]

More landlords = more rental availabilities

[@cryptoslacker-464]

@JT-su7fd only if you can get in the market. Average wage earners are locked out. One of the reasons for high immigration is to keep wages low. Also because as the average person in Australia already are feeling poorer so they are choosing not having children. End result , Australia not the lucky country no more 😢

[@cryptoslacker-464]

@agostinhomartins8373 my point was there will not be more landlords , just more properties going to the landlords that already exist. The wealth stays with the already rich. As its much easier for them to play the game . Or impossible for the average person to play it.

[@theodorevelentzas1065]

The property market does need to bust, but it wont because, under supply, politicians giving too many tax concessions, foreign investment pouring in, high migrants with cash buying up, how is it going to bust, all governments and private sector want it to continue to grow. Will it bust no, too many incentives and lack of supply is the problem

[@Trying391]

It can go either way If your prepared to lose go for it 😂😂

[@trythis2821]

Depends on where you buy, a lot of housing markets are still increasing.

[@anthonybountros1629]

Property prices will not crash in the foreseeable future

[@jemszjemsz]

Aren't' prices already crashing in Melbourne?

[@m2comp369]

"Crashing" - No. Flatlining or going slightly backwards - Yes. And as some comments have already suggested this is mostly attributed to Land Tax and onerous compliance laws. I'm one of those investors selling. The yield is no longer there.

[@Redhotrock]

Mate there is conflict of interest in your analysis because you sell properties you can’t afford to say the prices will go down !

[@chellappaveerasekaran8546]

Ok, let's take your case. There are 70 houses and 100 people, but only 70 have got high enough stable income to afford the very high house price now and other 30 are already out of the market. So, even as per your own argument, effectively there are only 70 people bidding for 70 houses available, would that still keep the house price going upwards as it did so far?

[@shaneheids4577]

It's more like the 70 people are keeping it unaffordable for the 30 people. They simply can't compete with people who have more money than them in a housing supply issue market.

[@hsvracer]

All that means is that the 30 who are left either change their criteria or move into a more affordable market and become 1 of the 70.

[@jorgeson3586]

Prediction is hard especially about the future.

[@trythis2821]

I'm 100% accurate on past predictions.

[@hsvracer]

A broken clock is right twice a day yet Harry Dent has NEVER got the Australian market correct. I personally know 2 people who quoted his bollocks reports before making serious property decisions and, despite my best efforts to point them to the data, they followed the "advice" of Harry and sold properties just before a big run, both of them are now millions of dollars behind. Harry should be able to be sued.

[@hsvracer]

No, he specifically targets the Australian market because he knows we've got a significantly higher home ownership per capita than his home market, he also does this every time he's got a book coming out or when the headlines are reading in a way that will allow him to put his worthless 2c in, in order to try and stay relevant.

[@rawirihemi27]

How should he be sued? You either listen to someone or you don’t. If it worked out for you you praise the information. If it doesn’t work out, you want to sue? Yea, proper Australian victim right there.

[@hsvracer]

He's an "economist" purporting to preach from a position of expert knowledge. I certainly didn't fall victim to his 11/10 bollocks, I cleaned up, but I watched good people suffer at the hands of his "advice". If he was held responsible in some way, his bollocks might stop.

[@adriansmith7604]

Prices wont maybe stabilise hold if your lucky over next 10 years price bracked creep UP UP UP

[@ivankjokjorovski1099]

What to expect from seller to say😂. Mate house prices are falling and that trend will continue. In fact just a month ago 3 bedroom house was 50-70k higher priced than now. You must make videos like this to sell your properties and keeping away others to not inflate the market. If housing prices rising why so much advertising for buyers agents😅. Miration falls, interest rate will be for long same maybe more increases are along the way and all these people how are having tendents with no fix term should be scarred, especially if they made purchase of property after COVID

[@Trying391]

Factor War Factor Mother Nature Things can swing very fast 😉we are on the edge of Yes your stats are right for now 😉

[@ASXStockPicking]

So explain Melbourne suburbs falling 20%

[@george1479]

Dan Andrew's tax. No investor wants to touch Melbourne.

[@Soundmaster91]

It's negative demand, a place in Australia where there are more places for sale than interested buyers.

[@ASXStockPicking]

@@Soundmaster91 Don’t think so…too many propadees leveraged and offloading their “investments”. When unemployment kicks off, there will be a bloodbath. Too much people too leveraged. Repo market is drying up so the debt costs will go up too. Banks will stop being too conniving with over leveraged stupid people. Smart money don’t play dumb, someone will need to eat the losses and I ensure you won’t be the bankers neither the government

[@_dsee]

Haven’t seen 20% decreases in Melbourne. Slight decreases but nothing major. Once rates go down more people will be able to afford to buy and prices likely to head back up

[@ASXStockPicking]

@@_dsee so inflation will go up again and they will have so hike even higher