Why Soft Landings Are Basically Economic Nirvana | WSJ

[@kirankumarsukumar]

My dad runs a kiosk in NY since 1972. He said anytime he sees an increase in lottery sales there is an economic downturn right after it. He has been seeing the highest lottery sales since 2006. I got chills in my back hearing that.

[@mindgoesbodyfollows]

Lol this would be a great leading indicator and it's as quirky as the Big Mac index

[@boxhitbox1455]

this is such an interesting concept. is there any data out there that shows lottery sales across the country to see if there’s any correlation?

[@pski2515]

Everything NEEDS to go down.

[@wallstreetzoomer]

The Jews are not going to let the bubble burst until Biden or another establishment figure secures the election. I’m more worried about 2025 than 2024

[@jaym9846]

I better leave work early to get in line.

[@mikhailmamontov2155]

For people on fixed income and low middle class the economy already crashed! Prices are so high when compared to before pandemic.

[@vancouversworstdrivers]

True but unemployment is low in the US so it hasn't hit a recession yet

[@krayziejerry]

@@vancouversworstdrivers Unemployment stats are off

[@CausticLemons7]

Good explanation as to why economics is a social science rather than natural. People are irrational and it is incredibly difficult to predict us, but I applaud the current Fed for doing a pretty good job given such difficult circumstances.

[@krayziejerry]

You're hilarious, the FEDS are the CAUSE, not solution.

[@Curbalnk]

Is the stock market actually getting better or is this the regular end of year market manipulation to entice new investors, I'm currently sitting on an inheritance of 500k and i'm wondering do I invest in stocks or Gold?

[@greekbarrios]

A consistent 5% return from the bank and US securities sounds better to me than worrying about losing your money if the stock market falls. Also consider financial advisory with the size of your budget.

[@blaquopaque]

The choice between money market and stocks depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance. Stocks offer dividends and long-term growth, while money markets provide fixed returns. Consulting a fiduciary advisor is wise for a tailored financial plan. from personal experience, my portfolio has grown to $1.3M, a 25% increase from last year, with robust diversification and inflation hedging.

[@blaquopaque]

Of course, I have been working with 'MONICA SELENA PARK,' and the beauty of it is that her knowledge covers a wide range of financial advisory services, including digital assets. I'd recommend you look her up yourself to do your due diligence.

[@kansasmile]

Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I filled her form and i hope she gets back to me soon.

[@redmustangredmustang]

you got to diversify your s man. Put it into mutual funds, buy bonds like I bonds which has a $10,000 limit. What you want is consistency 5 to 10% a year back growth. What you want is long term stuff.

[@jayski9410]

But let's not forget that interest rates are not the only metric that the Fed has been using. Remember quantitative easing, often referred to as QE1, QE2, etc.? They never pulled all that stimulus out of the economy. So even if you normalize inflation and interest rates, you've still got that bloated balance sheet to deal with.

[@trappart9209]

They reduce balance sheet during QT. It is undergoing right now

[@hathwayh3209]

chances they got it right after a rare event such as covid, where demand is pent up?

[@robertbauer3676]

@@trappart9209 Yep, this. They have been reducing the size of the balance sheet since April 2022. It will take them years to get it back down, but they are headed in the right direction. Source: www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

[@uncreativename9936]

QE doesn't create money. It's the fed buying treasury bills from banks. The banks had previously handed over cash for those bonds so no new money is created. QE is the equivalent to you having a CD with a bank and one day they call you to tell you the CD is cancelled and the money is in your checking account now. kzbin.info/www/bejne/kJPUpaOBoJuceZo

[@serebii666]

" They never pulled all that stimulus out of the economy." QE doesn't create new money, it only increases liquidity in circulation. And that liquidity was by and large into increased property and stock values. That money is parked long term in homes and funds and functionally is out of the economy. The drawback is that it increases wealth inequality in the system, funneling money to those that already have property and stocks.

[@ronkirk5099]

Before I retired in 2002, I had a couple of roller coaster rides in our economy during my career including a short period of unemployment, but I always lived a little below my means so I could maintain a nest egg of savings to ride it out. Too bad more Americans don't (or can't) use this strategy.

[@xiphoid2011]

you mean many Americans don't use that strategy. As a Chinese American, living below our means is in our blood, coupled with our emphasis on education, is why Asian Americans are well off. Becoming successful is extremely easy compared to China where my wife and I grew up.

[@oldskoolmusicnostalgia]

Try "living a little below my means" in the context of today following inflation levels unseen of since the early 80s. It's only possible to do if basic living expenses like food and housing are at reasonable levels. I have greatly reduced my expenses over the last 2 years and I hate to post this spoiler but it's not going to make anyone radically wealthier, merely provide a small cushion.

[@bingbong9844]

This strategy isn’t feasible when you’re paying 65% of your income on housing, and the housing you are paying for is the cheapest on the market.

[@gregorysagegreene]

You retired just before the END of the 'Garden Variety' recession thesis. Saving doesn't ameliorate catastrophe.

[@eddiemalvin]

​@@oldskoolmusicnostalgia Patience, dude. You've got this. "Living below your means" isn't a winning lottery ticket that pays out a lump sum. It's a slow and steady grind, just like saving for retirement. It's also just one of many pillars supporting a financially sound household. You've drastically reduced your expenses? Great! Now go do all the other stuff: Upgrade your career, improve your financial knowledge, get out and stay out of debt, save for retirement, invest for the long term, find a professionally successful and financially savvy partner/spouse, etc. Come back in 20 years and let us know how it worked out. Good luck!

[@sanjay.k6124]

Atleast USA has very positive assessment of economy without cooking the datas. Very transparent analysis by WSJ, USA Is progressing.

[@swankyangelo]

One thing we do care about here is our money.

[@user-et8sn3hy8r]

They definitely do cook the books. 😅😂😅 just not as obvious

[@xiphoid2011]

​@@user-et8sn3hy8rIt's much harder to cook the book in the US since government data is open to public and third party checks and verifications. This is very different than data from countries like China.

[@jocko4598]

Bidenomics. Thank you, President Joe Biden.

[@KungPowEnterFist]

A soft landing is essentially guaranteed to happen during a hiking cycle, because you get a soft landing on your way to a hard landing. We are in a soft landing right now by most descriptions. The Fed has hiked and paused, inflation has cooled, the labor market has moderated a bit, and economic growth has largely remained positive. That is a soft landing. However, this in no way prevents a hard landing from happening next.

[@spacetoast7783]

There will always be another recession, but it seems like the next won't be caused by increased interest rates.

[@trappart9209]

Why then they talk about soft landing at all if it doesn't prevent recession?

[@spacetoast7783]

@@trappart9209 If that's your definition of a soft landing, then humanity never has and never will recover from high inflation.

[@trappart9209]

@@spacetoast7783 I was asking this question because I am curious and I don't understand your response

[@KungPowEnterFist]

@@trappart9209 Unemployment does not go from, say, 3.4% to 10% in a single month. Inflation YOY does not go from 9.1% to -2% in a single month. And so on. It takes time to go from one extreme to the other. The last real estate cycle took at least 5 years from peak to trough, for example, peaking in mid-2005 and troughing in mid-2010. In 2006, no landing they said. In 2007, soft landing they said. In the first half of 2008, they were still saying soft landing. It was not until the first half of 2009 that the mainstream media finally admitted there was a hard landing happening in the real estate market. It did not actually bottom until at least a full year after that. Where do you think we are now? Early 2007, perhaps? Everything was looking great in 2007.

[@ShlomoTv]

I hate all these fake comments, youtube needs to fix it

[@Sjalabais]

There should really be more numbers in this video. It's repetitive if you don't offer insightful scenarios. The commercialisation of property has created a lot of bottlenecks that keeps the value of homes up; is that sustainable? Pandemic cushions for thos who stayed home and earned well might be wearing down now. Will they reduce spending? This "soft landing" is dependent on actual behaviour and we can model some of that without staying extremely abstract like in this video.

[@ayoCC]

Spending from pandemic cushions were only for things people were going to buy anyway, food and necessities. We need to increase supply efficiency again

[@justinh7560]

I think the intent of this video was “talk to me like I’m Five” and meant to be basic for the below average person who knows nothing about investing but has heard the term soft landing

[@hathwayh3209]

agree, surely covid is a variable they cant predict.

[@kimi17147]

Thank you Joe!

[@DickSlammer]

yo can i get a job playing with those planes on your vids?

[@MrZealot1]

Deflation is required to bring down the prices. Prices are still too high. Reducing the rate of increase of a high price is still a high price. Bring the prices down...

[@papasquat355]

There has been no reduction in demand based on lagging incomes, so why would prices drop? Prices will adjust IF people slow consumption, but deflation isn't needed.

[@hathwayh3209]

@@papasquat355 People cant slow consumption on household staples. Perhaps on services which i hear is still high(worth checking) people just cut corner, quality drops, health drops and the long term is we have a weaker economy.

[@CharetteRose]

Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?

[@Lettyogle]

The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.

[@Judithmoy109]

I enjoy my day to day market decisions being guided by a portfolio-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not outperform, been using a portfolio-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over $300k .

[@priyankamahatma6672]

Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.

[@priyankamahatma6672]

Thanks, I merely looked her up on Google and was highly impressed by her credentials; I got in touch with her because I need all the help I can get. I just set up phone call.

[@takeoffoptions]

Where have you been? Market is at all time high lol

[@Kessoku]

fed should hike the interest rate one more time to see how the economy reacted

[@jaym9846]

Blackrock would crack if no crack be coming.

[@olorin4317]

Now they begin to strategically lower interest rates which boosts the economy. The trick is to do it in a way that energizes the economy without overheating and birthing a bubble.

[@TheGauravhada]

I don't know if anyone else noticed it but the sound of the figure in the background seems a little off. It seems like this voice was generated using AI

[@Fightback2023]

Inflation is down? According to what matrix? With $20 an hour in the fast food industry, I doubt the real inflation rate is down.

[@Openminder321]

The fed by pivoting and signaling rate cuts guarantees the soft landing as the economy is so closely tied to rates. But with no recession, higher home prices and a turnaround in consumer spending this will raise inflation. How can inflation continue to come down if the reason it came down in the first place is removed?

[@robertbauer3676]

In theory so long as rates are higher than the rate of inflation, they are still applying downward pressure. They can reduce rates some, and still push down on current inflation rates (3.1%). That said, they may not cut the rates if inflation is stickier than they anticipate.

[@LockedUpLarry]

The missing factor: Election! You can’t claim a victory on inflation, claim the economy is running fine, and lower rates! Two of the three have to be wrong!

[@Martin-qm2lg]

Won't be able to judge for another year.

[@nathandinh5315]

Does anyone notice the airplane model registration number? That aircraft collide with a tree at 2000ft.

[@1ZEROSUMGAME]

It ain't gonna happen. In modern days, interest rates are never higher for very long at all. They also never really go that much higher. The lowering of interest rates later have little effect on economic growth as they did in the past when the gap was greater. 90 plus percent of home buyers already have lower interest rates.

[@urbansgarbagechannel3587]

I’m on a plain I can’t complain

[@MrSimonw58]

3:34 ... sniff sniff ....

[@DavidRodriguezBarrios]

“Inflation is dropping” is misleading, look at the cpi from 2020 to know it’s slowing but it’s still insanely high

[@NicitoStaAna]

That is literally what "inflation is dropping" FED rates have a 3-12 month delay. This is due to money freshly printed is still compounding/beung circulated in the economy

[@gregorysagegreene]

Watching this is basically like being told to grow up, get a girl, get an education, work hard, get married, buy a house, have kids ... a n d ... live happily ever after. 🤣 Cyan tablet economics. 🙄

[@maulananurushobry]

Thank you 😊

[@lakeguy65616]

the stock market is "counting their chickens before they've hatched"....

[@furiousgtz]

So why would anyone want to sell a 2.5% house? Something need to offset.

[@dpie4859]

Just as Nirvana does not exist, a soft landing (with this massive inverted yield curve) does also not exist.

[@storyls]

Nah, inverted yield curve mainly means people expect the fed to drop interest rates, this is common in recessions but doesn’t only have to happen for recessions

[@dpie4859]

@@storyls you are correct. 1 out of the last 10 times an inverted yield curve happened there was no recession. But there's a 90% chance we will have one given the historic track record.

[@PatrickLloyd-]

Interesting how over 2% inflation has been a concern when central banks and the Fed begin to hike interest rates. I consider the rising interest rate to be a very serious issue since it will undoubtedly cause more investors to withdraw their money from the stock market. But then I'm still aware of certain investors that continue to earn over $365,000. Wish I could accomplish that.

[@tonysilke]

Very likely! especially with the market as it is now. There are many ways to make fantastic profits, but only experienced market experts should handle such complex deals.

[@Nernst96]

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[@PhilipDunk]

This is really impressive, hope you don't mind if I ask you to recommend this particular professional you use their service? I had quite a lot of difficulty sorting myself out in this downtime.

[@PhilipDunk]

Thanks a lot for this recommendation. I just looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@johnmaris1582]

To all american, brace for impact.

[@Alabamaliberal]

I watched the entire video, but--no surprise--did not see price gouging mentioned once...I think the Fed raising interest rates has had no real affect on the economy because we're not experiencing inflation so much as gouging due to corporate consolidation and fewer post-pandemic players in any giving market (like meatpacking, consumer staples like diapers, banks, airlines, ticket sellers, arenas, retailers, certainly small businesses, and so on). It's happening in every business (a simple combo at Five Guys is over $30, endless junk fees with nearly every transaction, housing prices that are insane in most major cities), and the Fed raising rates has had no real impact on "cooling" this atrocious practice. One thing you will NEVER see discussed on WSJ is how labor costs may have risen a token amount, but corporate profits have skyrocketed.

[@NicitoStaAna]

Price gouging don't exist in competitive markets FED rates are known to have a delay effect This is due to "reversing printed money" is still circulating/compounding in an economy

[@thetaomega7816]

competitive markets died when regulation created by lobbying of big businesses overwhelmed small businesses@@NicitoStaAna

[@alpacaofthemountain8760]

I hope that the recent rise in Union activity will help push corporations to increase worker pay

[@andrewmitchell7592]

Debt to earnings ratio per household is the largest concern. Business debt as well. Stock mayhem And lastly real estate

[@KHMakerD]

Why is WSJ using AI voice overs?

[@luciustarquiniuspriscus1408]

The economy is like an airplane where the pilot applies his controls with a delay of two to three months. About to hit the ground? We'll pull the cloche by one degree and wait until the next meeting. Still crashing? Another degree at the next meeting. You don't need to understand the economy specifically. In any dynamical system, control inputs need to be timely and have an approriate magnitude. The interest rate should be adjusted for the inflation we expect in a few months. Yes, forecasts can be wrong, which is a downside, but we are not talking 10 year forecasts here. And economic operators would work with the certainty that inflation would not be left unchecked for months and rates would not remain high after inflation has cooled off, causing a recession. Caution at the wheel of a dynamical system is recklessness. Try to count to five every time you decide to move the steering wheel of a car. Actually, don't, it would be very dangerous for you and others. But if you could, you'd find yourself careening from one side of the road to the other, just like our economy.

[@tylerknight99]

delays in a dynamic system can create even more hellish feedback loops

[@DogeHandle]

Looking back the books was cooked

[@recognizer6194]

Does those inflation figures include shrinkflation ?

[@amyiyen]

yes.

[@javierponcenavarro1478]

Is this narrated by AI? I don’t want to be rude to the narrator but maybe some of the voice editing makes it sound like AI and it’s hard on the ear. 😕

[@lingbaiwf]

GREAT EXAMPLE for poor ff and U🗽

[@erichong4786]

Is this the onion?

[@lokesh303101]

Yes!

[@Okrah]

Who lands a plane like this?!

[@MysteryKmt]

This is it people hold on you your butts!

[@houseplant1016]

My parent's local village did it

[@squid84202]

I don't think they will have an easy time getting and keeping inflation below 3% with the current labor market. Some level of job loss is needed for that to happen... but good luck containing that spiral when it starts. The lag effect will become more obvious as the higher rate hikes start to have an effect from late last year and early this year.

[@stevenbuttice3442]

Completely dystopian that the government decides whether the economy thrives or withers. Who voted for this

[@yoganature3598]

..🤔 money printing printers ?? kidding ! cutting oneselvens abreak"

[@peterwilkinson1975]

"it has never been done before" its is "elusive" :)

[@thijsjong]

You need a rise in productivity. With all the fancy theories it all comrs down to people/companies/entities producing stuff/services people need.

[@hathwayh3209]

which require pain to realise, without hunger people wouldnt move. Companies are inefficient and my experience is employment is still high to cover for this productivity and quality is down. falling qualiy indicates longer term issues?

[@glennwojcik2342]

Like landing on a carrier.

[@jaym9846]

Shouldn't the plane be a ship named Titanic?

[@jumbolarge108]

Let’s hope this video ages well.

[@beepboopbeepp]

This comment section is full of fake financial bot conversations, shame on the journal for not deleting them

[@itzhassanplayz909]

Why does unemployment go down when rates go up

[@spacetoast7783]

It doesn't. The opposite tends to happen.

[@michaelbananas461]

​@@spacetoast7783umm..no...google it. Unemployment goes down as interest rates go up... It doesnt make sense, and most experts are not saying this, but a 2 minute google of the charts will show you.

[@Waltaere]

WSJ 😃

[@camadams9149]

Well it turned out most of inflation of corporate price gouging. Turns out problems that aren’t real are easy to fix

[@MusicSoundPlayer]

JUST SAY IT!

[@aliadeeb6859]

I am not a monetary policy head but it seems like fixing the interest rate with a central bank might be the reason the fed either does too little or too much. It's the same reason the Soviet union could never achieve a "soft landing" with the right amount of bread distribution. Ron Paul has truly colored my view of the world since 2012.

[@dragonprince7]

But we are landing soft, aren't we?

[@RAZ423]

Buy now, pay later!

[@emmanuilushka]

Think of infamous "wrecking crews" when individuals or communities deliberately causing ships to run aground during storms, with the intention of looting the cargo. An old practice in coastal villages in Britain. That's why Soft Landing the Economy Is So Rare

[@yufengyan]

lol

[@Drucio1]

Phase 4.... Its here.

[@smithraymond09029]

There are all sorts of indicators people use to predict the course of the economy. I'll say this much: all of the language I am hearing from "experts" regarding the economy is similar to what I was hearing on late 2006, early 2007. Be prepared for the storm, folks.

[@hathwayh3209]

is it actually? what was common rhetroic back then ?

[@trihard7323]

WE ARE SO BACK

[@davidgreenwood7797]

That was useless.

[@coldclaws2479]

More gaslighting that the economy is doing well XD

[@thomashill9501]

“RARE” it’s never happened!

[@beniamino1693]

Was this narrated by AI? 😢

[@notsharingwithyoutube]

Inflation is not dropping, you liar. It may not be rising as fast as it was, but it is not dropping. Why are you lying?

[@jonathanschwartz4794]

www.bls.gov/cpi/latest-numbers.htm

[@jonathanschwartz4794]

may not be rising as fast as it was is the definition of dropping. Prices are not dropping because that is disinflation but inflation itself is down more than 50% from its peak of 7+%

[@notsharingwithyoutube]

@@jonathanschwartz4794 If you are sinking in quicksand more slowly than you were before, then you are still sinking in quicksand.

[@ashtangaxashtangapranayama8526]

F capitalism

[@gouravmisra2317]

Namaste ma'am good evening 🌆 watching from India 🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@prakashvt35]

Same

[@peacecaker5329]

You can watch from anywhere, and they are able to realise their audience through yt tools . You do not have to publise it . Get mature and learn something and talk about the topic . Be relevant bro

[@trinhnguyenkn7624]

The reason soft landing is so rare is because we (or actually the decision-makers) don't recognize it when they WERE in it. To realize it, they need to learn to be flexible with both of their targets (not the silly rigid 2% inflation and not the traditionally high unemployment. Instead of focusing on an absolute target, they should focus on the magnitude of changes! But ala, they don't!). As they were so blindsided with what they think they should see instead of appreciating the favored environment they actually have (or had), they've soon gone past the soft landing and only realize that in the rear view mirror, "what if we could have stopped a little while ago..." Maybe what the Fed officials need are often Meditation retreat and Ethical leadership so they learn to appreciate the present and comprehend the consequences of their actions to other people :)))

[@hathwayh3209]

No, they recognise they are in it hence the pivot, ie they are seeing things indicating the change. there is a reason for that inflation target and reason for unemployment target, They are flexiable with certain things such as time to pivot based on real data.

[@SmarterTrading411]

It is highly likely that we will NEVER see below 4700 on the S&P again in our lifetimes.

[@oldskoolmusicnostalgia]

Short answer: central bankers mostly have no idea what they are doing and even though economists will cry like babies about this, Economics is not a hard science where a specific action will always produce the same effect. What a world to live in, one where citizens are little more than guinea pigs in the money experiments of central banks and governments. The value of your income or assets can shrink overnight if those in power decide that should happen.

[@chasejones8302]

Lies lies lies. .

[@blink55667]

What even is her voice? Sounds like AI

[@JohnnyJohansen-zn7oy]

777 000 000 000 000 000 000 ❤😂🎉

[@firstlast8258]

The numbers don't lie but liars use numbers 🤓🖕

[@JacksonWelch]

Niki leaks!!

[@TR-Youtube-Channel]

When you land in the ocean, it doesn't matter how soft you land. Many will perish.

[@alex3261]

Airplanes do not always softland andwgat at first sight look as a fine landing could turn into a disaster Ina matter of seconds.

[@gold_real_money]

10-15% interest rates will definitely save the US from inflationary environment if only they have lower debt. Paul Volcker is still unbeaten by another Fed Chairman

[@papasquat355]

My CD's would LOVE 10 - 15% interest rates. Come on high rates!!!

[@spacetoast7783]

​@@papasquat355Your job security probably wouldn't fare well.

[@spacetoast7783]

The current Fed board did the exact same thing as Volckers Fed. What competition are you even talking about?

[@hurusii9005]

The yield curve wasn’t massively inverted like in 1995. There will be crash landing.

[@homewall744]

When government treats free people in free markets as a game they can play by controlling the players, prices and currency.

[@dunggg]

Soft landing 😂

[@scipioafricanus4875]

I m formative thanks

[@SmarterTrading411]

Never bet against America 🇺🇸 S&P to 7500

[@UDONTCME111]

Finally recovering from Trump and Covid.

[@stupendouslife8128]

👏👏👏👍👍👍🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

[@jeffbezozss]

No inflation is not dropping wait for the increasing its coming next month u wish its dropping 😂😂😂😂