Why the NEW Bat Tracking Data from Baseball Savant Matters

Рет қаралды 11,215

Күн бұрын

Baseball Savant just released bat tracking data for the first time. Bat speed, "squared-up" percentage, swing length and other information about hitters. This unlocks a whole new understanding of how hitters are creating the contact-point data that we already have eyes on (like exit velocity and launch angle).
This is the first rollout of this info, there's more to come, including information about the path hitters' bat are take and things like attack angle.
But for now, let's digest this info and dive into bat speed and "squared-up" percentage or sweet-spot percentage in this video.
Baseball Savant's website can be found here: baseballsavant.mlb.com/
All the information I use within this video can be found here:
My substack can be found here: lancebroz.substack.com/
A massive thanks to the folks at MLB for giving me early access to the bat tracking data so I could make this video ahead of time. Mike Petriello, Alex Fast, Tom Tango, and others I'm likely missing. Hopefully I didn't mess anything up in my explanations.
Video and images via MLB, MLB.tv, USAToday
0:00 Baseball Savant's Bat Tracking Rollout
0:39 Bat Speed
1:14 Bat Speed Distribution Graphics
2:05 Two-Strike Adjusments?
2:53 Fastball vs Slider Bat Speed
4:04 Pitcher Bat Speed
4:46 Team Bat Speed
5:45 What is Squared-Up Rate?
7:49 Bat Speed + Squared-Up Plot
10:00 Bat Speed + Squared-Up for Pitchers
11:09 Swing Length
11:38 What's Next?!

Пікірлер: 48

@SetupManCubs Ай бұрын

One of my favorite videos you have done! Baseball Savant can be tough to decode. This is extremely helpful

@capraagricola Ай бұрын

Small correction, 4 tampa bay rays in the top 10 for bat speed decrease with 2 strikes -- missed Harold Ramirez

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

3 in the top 6 sounds better!

@capraagricola Ай бұрын

@@LanceBroz 2 in top 4 >>>>>>

@phinn0109 Ай бұрын

Awesome video! Loved hearing your thoughts!

@PT1- Ай бұрын

Awesome stuff Lance. Can't wait for the bat path rollouts later this summer. Also, very intrigued by this on the Pitcher's side, would love to see how much control Pitcher's truly have over their opponent's bat speed. My hypothesis would be very little over long periods of time, but will certainly be interesting to see the outliers who constantly have guys off balance.

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

Yep! Think I agree on the pitcher - bat speed point I’d guess the squared up stuff may play some part in deception. Will be interesting to see how perspective evolves with this info

@christophersuto3263 Ай бұрын

Glad we have smart people like you breaking down all of this. I wonder for bat speed vs pitch type can relate to batter's ability to recognize the pitch type. Also could vary for good hitters who receive a lot more breaking balls than the average hitter. I wonder if Mookie Betts sees a lot of breaking balls and recognizes better and that is why his bat speed is higher for that pitch. Seems like in general hitters are caught off guard by off speed and start/stop/start their swing and will have slower swing speeds. Either way I imagine the sample size is super small and this will be great to see after a full year and going forward.

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

Yep, sample size definitely has some implications here. Going to take a year or two of data to see how stable some of these stats are as well

@joshcashin563 Ай бұрын

W vid, would love more vids on these stats just bc it seems like a whole bunch to take on right this moment

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

Yeah! It’s a lot. I’ll likely be working it in to future stuff I do. Still digesting a lot of it as well

@veryveryboss Ай бұрын

I’m begging for a good analysis of what the numbers say about different batting stances like open, closed, neutral, or bat angle at the beginning of a swing

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

Maybe someday! Would be cool

@omilu808 Ай бұрын

Great breakdown as usual

@boazboazboaz Ай бұрын

great as always lance. can't wait for the bat path drop

@BasedLinesBaseball Ай бұрын

As far as the Mookie, etc phenomenon, Justin Choi tweeted a chart that showed a positive correlation between overall swing length and bat speed. As a hitter, if you are trying to catch up to a fastball, you oftentimes have to shorten your swing to get to that pitch, whereas with off speed, you can take a longer (and thus higher bat speed, more time for barrel to accelerate) swing

@BasedLinesBaseball Ай бұрын

Leads me to believe these are guys that don’t completely sell out for fastball, but can often sit somewhat “in between” bc they recognize pitches so early out of the hand, shortening up to get to the fastball. Vs the CWalk group sitting fastball and being more likely to really have to slow everything down to get to the SL

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

Yeah, I think this is a fair assessment. Long swing and bat speed correlating makes sense. I saw that too. The money is probably in the guys with short swings + above average bat speed, or as you said, ability to be adjustable. I think we’ll learn a ton more as we get into bat path data as well

@312fit 25 күн бұрын

What do you think bonds’ metrics would have been like 😂

@ElHermanoDeAquiles Ай бұрын

Squared-up is the true sweet spot percentage. Know I understand why Stacast changed the originally sweet spot% stat to LA sweet spot %.

@Aut0KAD Ай бұрын

when you change the chart to wiff rate/bat speed, you can really see the top batters group together. Mike Trout, Yordan Alvarez, and Juan Soto together in a nice clump.

@trealville23 29 күн бұрын

Since it became public that Matt Chapman has the fifth highest avg bat speed, he has been absolutely RAKING. Dont know what it means but it’s just funny. I imagine Chapman said “dam I’m fire” lol

@LanceBroz 28 күн бұрын

😂😂😂

@Aut0KAD Ай бұрын

its interesting that there is a negative correlation between bat speed and squared up / swing. makes sense but you really see the trade off. what I'd like to see is that chart, but you change the color of the players based off WAR to better understand how this ratio is leading to results

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

Yeah, the problem is that non of this is considering plate discipline, which is going to be a huge driver of WAR. Lot of players bottom left who are average through swing decisions alone

@blakethetank Ай бұрын

You can get the Maximum EV based off swing speed so I'm guessing with squared up they are just taking the difference and putting it in a percentile output.

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

Yeah, that’s my understanding. A ball is considered “squared up” when 80% of the potential EV is realized. And potential EV is what you’re talking about - a combo of swing speed with some pitch speed

@jcjvcjc98 Ай бұрын

Counter-intuitively, I think this bat tracking data is most useful for measuring pitcher performance in a way that helps us understand quality-of-contact-against better. For hitters, it looks interesting but fairly obvious outcomes in retrospect.

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

I see your point, it just really has to be controlled for the quality of hitter I think. The sweet spot stuff in particular can (probably) help us to understand broadly, which pitchers might have more deception (for one reason or another). We’re just going to need a meaty sample to be confident. I really think when the path data comes out we’re going to really start understanding a lot about how hitters are getting to contact points and what pitchers should be throwing vs certain hitters.

@jcjvcjc98 Ай бұрын

@@LanceBroz agreed, definitely has to be controlled for the quality of the hitter and defintiely needs a higher sample size.

@domingotavarez_ Ай бұрын

It's possible to calculate the Bat Speed (like estimated) with Trackman Data?

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

I think there’s probably a way to back into it, but there’s going to be some error. It would essentially just be some kind of EV calculation. Need Hawkeye for this stuff from my understanding.

@domingotavarez_ Ай бұрын

@@LanceBroz Have you ever heard some possible formula, like EV vs Pitch Speed and some point of contact?

@DingleberryStudios69 29 күн бұрын

The lowest bat speed belongs to the highest average hitter. very interesting

@mike-0451 Ай бұрын

Not to bring up another obscure minor leaguer but what's the deal with these unheralded college pitchers the Astros keep drafting? James Hicks and Jake Bloss are dominating despite having pretty unremarkable college careers.

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

Yeah, those guys are pretty different pitchers. Bloss is carry 4S, Hicks is a sinker/two seam guy. I think (certain) teams are just so good at ID’ing pitchers they can make better through mix or biomech and then doing it immediately when a guy gets in the org.

@rowdyghost4713 Ай бұрын

Imo, I think just like ev, kids are going to absolutely abuse this and royally screw up their swings

@LanceBroz Ай бұрын

This data is probably never going to make it amateur levels (below minors) because Hawkeye is so expensive. Or it’s going to take a while. So that’s just an over exaggeration. Everybody knows what exit velo is. Kids are going to chase it. Cats out of the bag.