Why the world population won’t exceed 11 billion | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG

[@sleepylittlejin]

"poor women are clever otherwise they are dead" holy shit

[@ultraviolet.catastrophe]

I wonder what that means, would you mind explaining?

[@SF-ow5ru]

He is referring to women in Africa being clever about reproducing more kids to survive in the future because they know that if they don't reproduce they will die due to not having the support children will provide in the future, does that make sense?

[@trad13]

@@ultraviolet.catastrophe You could survive being dumb in a wealthy country. But being dumb in poor country is killing. Poverty is more selective, more Darwinian environment.

[@ultraviolet.catastrophe]

Both of your replies actually make sense

[@suman_sourav]

@@SF-ow5ru yes perfectly

[@martinhendy7475]

First time I've heard this guy speak and I assume from comments that he has now unfortunately passed away. What a brilliant speaker. I love his style and definitely will be watching more of his stuff.

[@Arne_Boeses]

Martin Hendy he wrote a great book: Factfulness!

[@CallsignVega]

Ya read he died at only age 68 from Pancreatic Cancer. :(

[@CosmicCompassionQuest]

poewhite isn't what you call sleight of hand actually just a simplification of the fact that that 0-15 cohort comprises of European / American / African / Asian components each of which are reproducing at different rates, but in aggregate are roughly at replacement level? So the makeup of this cohort will shift over time from primarily Asian to primarily African (assuming a continuation of current fertility rates in the various regions). Which he details in the final part of the presentation. The logic seems good. It's bolstered by studies showing that urbanization goes hand in hand with reduced family sizes, and as you know there is a powerful shift towards city dwelling in most developing nations. As for "snake oil", what exactly would he be getting for peddling this? He acknowledges the environmental impacts of increased population, and is simply illustrating why an increase to around 11bn is an inevitability unless we actively get rid of people or sterilize them. I am not sure that the critique of Mao is justified though. The 1-child policy did succeed in limiting the growth of the Chinese population, meaning that they will soon be overtaken by India. I assume that the 0-15 cohort in China is relatively small,meaning that even if they move their fertility rates to replacement levels, their population is going to massively shrink relative to their neighbors (not to mention the US which has been importing ~1mn immigrants per annum on average hence is at much higher than replacement levels when coupled with their fertility rates of close to replacement).

[@CosmicCompassionQuest]

@poewhite There are many factors at play here which could influence fertility rates in those regions, granted. We can't be certain how Africa will fare, but if that region pursues the same approach to development as others have, fertility rates will likely fall. So I tend to agree with Rosling's projections at a high level. However we are not doing a deeper analysis of environmental factors here i.e. climate change, resource shortages of various kinds taking the steam out of runaway global economic expansion, ecological collapses of various kinds constraining growth even further. All of which certainly could act to constrain development in Africa. Whether that leads to greater fertility rates or causes a massive spike in death rates due to famine, or both, who yet knows? What we DO know is that the 7-8 bn population we currently have on the planet is causing catastrophic environmental impacts, never mind the 11 billion he predicts. So I'm in violent agreement with you that this is a very bad thing and we should not be complacent about the impact of massive numbers of human beings seeking to improve their living standards - it's not viable. But Rosling was not a snake oil salesman and there was no "sleight of hand" or devious intent - that's my point.

[@CosmicCompassionQuest]

@poewhite Hm ok this conversation has taken an unexpected turn. "The white west" you fantasize of is long since departed. The ethnic composition of the United States is 40% "non-white", with non-white cohorts such as African-Americans, Hispanics and Pacific Islanders having significantly higher fertility rates than caucasians and asians - so that proportion is only going to increase over time in a very not-lily-white direction. Further, US congress members come from a diverse range of ethnic backgrounds (refer below). So where is this "white west" you speak of? www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/08/for-the-fifth-time-in-a-row-the-new-congress-is-the-most-racially-and-ethnically-diverse-ever/ In any case, the ethnic composition of population groups is not even being examined in Rosling's talk. This is a different topic entirely. You're stitching in notions of racial purity and Zionist conspiracy. Ironically, it is this very world view - splitting humanity into groups segregated by ethnicity, nationality, religion and culture - that provides much of the impetus behind population growth. A world in which the economic relations between groups is largely controlled by a powerful oligarchy focused on securing its own interests, simply ensures the continued impoverishment/servitude of under-developed parts of the world, and perpetuates their continued exploitation. In these desperate circumstances, the poor multiply precisely because they perceive no other way to improve the odds of their long-term survival. The reality is that people share the same existential problems regardless of their ethnicity or which nation state they happen to live in. Our best chance of dealing with the issues we deal with as a species is to recognize our common plight, erase the arbitrary racial/nationalistic/cultural labels, and begin working together to rein in consumption and intelligently manage our global population.

[@Ctajm]

A few decades ago in the days of CB radios, a truck driver said to me one of the most profound things I've ever heard: "May you live as long as you want to, and want to as long as you live."

[@59acres]

10-4 good buddy.

[@tjhaverland4276]

59acres? Where?!? 😰 🤔🤔🤔

[@iwaswithyourmom9410]

Slot, I don't believe in god, you pathetic brainwashed fool. now go back in your truck, 10-4 buddy ...

[@iwaswithyourmom9410]

"Assholes such as yourself are the reason hatred is... " - who is the one showing hatred?? "I wish your kind would immediately die off in massive numbers." versus what I wrote. lol...gimme a break...

[@iwaswithyourmom9410]

So you do see the irony of your comments...you are the violent one...

[@confusedcaptain350]

Who else thought this was a Ted Talk at first

[@AidanMurray1]

You mean it’s not a ted talk?

[@want2seeall]

What? Fuck me, duped again!!!

[@aussieintexas61]

that's where I first saw hans

[@JMichael2x2]

Confused Captain - it was a Hans Talk!

[@calebengelbrecht7812]

me

[@GK-rl5du]

RIP Hans, thank you for all the wisdom. It was really a punch-in-the-gut feeling when you wished you could live for 15 more years, but unfortunately fate had a different plan. Once, again I sincerely thank you for your efforts in making us understand the world a bit better.

[@simonhobson5924]

Ugohigh 1 person per m2 in 200 years my arse. Try counting.

[@russg1801]

If you believe any of the VERBAL CRAP this guy spews, then watch THIS video about ACTUAL crap in India. That is the result of massive overpopulation. kzbin.info/www/bejne/jGSYh6pobtmUr5I

[@JsizzlePlays]

Russ G, you obvious didn't watch this whole video, at about the 11 minute mark he starts explaining that in poorer countries, specifically African counrties but can also include India the population is massively increasing because parents value having multiple children over what their children do.

[@JsizzlePlays]

Ugohigh, You're either a troll or an idiot. I'm going with troll because no one is stupid enough to say the shit you do.

[@mariasmith2198]

I hope he is burning in HELL for his obvious lies, as India and Africa are all exponentially increasing their population. Look at any graph it has sped up, not slowed down thus far.

[@tnk4me4]

I wish he could've followed statistics for fifteen more years.

[@anthonyramirez3452]

rest in peace:(

[@p199a]

RIP

[@ubberJakerz]

Oof did he croak?

[@d.lawrence5670]

@@ubberJakerz, why does no one every just say "die"? Why always use some metaphor?

[@ubberJakerz]

@@d.lawrence5670 because English is more interesting than that

[@BikashKumar-pz8hc]

Hans Rosling. We miss him. I really wish he had lived to 100 and beyond. Genius!

[@NoviProleterijat]

True! Rest in peace, Swedish National Treasure!

[@faithalonekjv5123]

Bill Gates probably had him killed. Watch “Black Code” on Bible4truth channel.

[@petegrusky2715]

I'm a historian and this guy is missing so many points, that it is ridiculous.

[@BikashKumar-pz8hc]

@@petegrusky2715 Educate us. My appreciation of Hans Rosling is not a blind adulation. I would love to hear the alternate perspectives.

[@milanstevic8424]

@@BikashKumar-pz8hc I think he refers to the previous comment about "Black Code" on Bible4truth but I might be wrong. If that's not the case, I agree with you.

[@JasmineJu]

I'd be more engaged in lectures if more lecturers wielded spears.

[@davidstaudohar6268]

HAHA haha funny 😂😂♦️♦️♦️

[@Yoshi92]

:D gold comment

[@Hunsuck_O_Rama]

😂🤣😂🤣♥️🤣😂🤣😂

[@brucedavis8993]

Thank you for causing me to literally laugh out loud.

[@eccentricoldcow]

Ha ha yeah Made me laugh like mad and big grin :D This must be the bloke who manufactured the coronarvirus and let it out just so he was proved right!

[@SirPage13]

Rest in peace you beautiful human being. Hans Rosling, you have showed me so much, and given me hope with that insight. Thank you.

[@TheRandomest]

"Conceptually, children are moving from Asia to Africa". I love when a high level thought such as this is grasped and articulated in such a concise manner.

[@faithalonekjv5123]

TheRandomest and he subtly took shots at eugenicist psychopaths like the billionaire tyrants who are robbing Africa and want the people out of the way (dead).

[@shoutingmuteness3902]

@@faithalonekjv5123 And stimulating emigration instead of improving their home countries.

[@pjacobsen1000]

Sadly, Hans Rosling didn't make it into the 75-90 age group he hoped for. Hans Rosling: 1948-2017.

[@SimonGrayDK]

:´(

[@mohibwasay5102]

At least predicted correct life expectancy.

[@mod8]

Amazing.

[@JsizzlePlays]

Ugohigh, I've never seen so much cancer in one comment.

[@JsizzlePlays]

I was raised Jewish and last time I checked I have no plans of world domination at the moment, though that might change with morons like you running around.

[@jacekpiterow900]

Hans is an example why we have to increase life span of older people. Once you live your life and find your passion you become a jewel in the crown of human society. Hans, you have done really good job. Best work I ever seen explaining it. I am so sorry that you will not do that anymore. Adieu, au revoir, bon voyage, farewell, goodbye and godspeed old chap...

[@bernardfinucane2061]

What happens to people like me? Nobody knows that? Nobody has family that are undertakers? They die. We die. Old people die. Doesn't mean we won't miss you Hans Rosling.

[@LoisoPondohva]

We already do.

[@adamclark1972uk]

@@LoisoPondohva He didn't get his extra 15 years

[@davincibz1]

RIP

[@halskarl]

I am actually an undertaker...

[@sedathefarmer]

My geography teacher always gets excited about this man, even after showing the same video each year 1000x

[@samdevries584]

Seda den Boer Lol mine aswell

[@bashisobsolete.pythonismyn6321]

be careful. he says many bad things; "this is why we should support UNICEF". he pretends that his calculations include epidemic disease, political conflict and big climatic events. but they don't. i promise that, when you are older, the geography teacher will seem stupid.

[@sedathefarmer]

What age exactly

[@bashisobsolete.pythonismyn6321]

1. in this video, Rosling promotes UNICEF. about 20 years ago UNICEF was converted (by america) from promoting the health and prosperity of children to preventing african babies. they want a "clean genocide". powerful governments don't want to lose control of africa's colossal wealth. 2. when you have your own child OR have serious responsibility for a child OR love a child.... then you will understand the beauty and importance of family life. you will understand how it is central to happiness, culture and civilisation. you will know that these propagandists are more than idiots. they are genocidal psychopaths. 3. perhaps you think i have jumped to an extreme conclusion. perhaps you think i need to be more flexible and open to ideas.... open to possibilities. i promise, you will grow older and recognise these evil stinking shit people. you will recognise it instantly.

[@user-dc2dv7gw5t]

so you're saying that UNICEF is being used as some kind of tool to commit genocide for the sake of the wealth of the western world?

[@johnsonwat3872]

I finished "Factfulness" just now, really great book written by Rosling. I loved the book so much; it is full of useful, interesting and important information. RIP, Hans Rosling!

[@Andrew-yb1uv]

Thanks for the tip, I just ordered the book.

[@estebancabrera8625]

8:12 We all wish he could've had 15 more years :(

[@drkim4077]

Esteban Cabrera Yeah, I feel bad because he didn’t ask for much

[@r.chavez5513]

He knew he was at the one of he's life span

[@teistix]

15:50 Hearing him say "I hope to be this one" just runs a sliver through me...

[@lcuk99]

remember my geography teacher showing us his website a couple years back - inspired me to look into demographics and development - now doing a BSc in Geography - thank you for the inspiration, Hans

[@georgen9755]

geography can afford website and engineering and polytechnics don't have a website ? who is fooling whom ?

[@AndriyVasylenko]

Amazing, simply amazing. The best presentation of the demographical shift I've seen. And such a resilient man 8:14 :-) Edit: Just learned that he's passed away... Rest in piece

[@Civilized-Joke]

The world will naturally adjust as scarcity arises or at least that is the hope so long as sudden scarcity doesn't occur things should run relatively smoothly with limited resources.

[@LittleJohnFish]

lol if thats on a EU standard how many americans can the world sustain? 2 million ? :P

[@Civilized-Joke]

_Actually the world can sustain 326,000,000+ Americans as of 2018._ www.livepopulation.com/country/united-states.html *xD*

[@Beaches_south_of_L.A.]

Andriy Vasylenko oh man that sucks. He gave a great Ted talk. I love this guy.

[@nacoran]

Assuming we don't live at a higher standard of living on fewer resources. If you put solar panels on your roof, have cars that last longer, lightbulbs that take less electricity...

[@crikxouba]

15:48 I got so sad here. I also hope you could have got there. You were an amazing man

[@kristofferhellstrom]

mmm ;(

[@timhoward5]

Not me

[@KenDBerryMD]

Excellent presentation; most thought-provoking...

[@illyriandescendant7963]

What a brilliant educator! I only learned he's left us just after watching this video. I'm really sad a wonderful mind and a kind hearted person like him is not among us anymore. But his fantastic work will always live. Thank you for everything, professor Hans Rosling.

[@BlueJDMMR2]

I cant stand this guy

[@joeovip]

I miss professor Hans. What a great person, lecturer and professional. RIP. ✨🙏🏼

[@badassoverlordzetta]

At the end of the day, I hope he's right. There's something genuine and good about his passion for these topics and it's a damn shame he never got those fifteen years to keep on studying those statistics. He gets closer and closer to being correct with every year, and with the human population reaching a balance for the first time in its history the only questions that remain are what we should do to ensure our planet can house us all. This isn't a conversation of apocalypse, just a question of how to live better.

[@alihaydargubatov2790]

Earth has enough resources to feed 30 Billion People according to researchers from USSR.

[@Panamenya]

He's not right, though. And he wasn't honest about the growth "not being exponential". When humans went from 1-4 billion, that was definitely exponential growth, because it always took fewer and fewer years to grow by one billion. The rate at which humans are being added, plus the relatively low death rates in the world mean that globally, we will definitely grow well past 11 billion humans. There is simply no mechanism in place to stop this growth. There are 80 million more humans added every year, and this rate is not abating -- if anything, it's increasing.

[@mism847]

@@Panamenya There is a mechanism, and it's called people being better off. It leads to people having less children and the birth rate declining. And as for the statistics I can find online, the rate is decreasing, albeit slowly, for now.

[@mism847]

@@Panamenya And as for the statistics, search for "human population growth 2023" and click on the website named "MacroTrends" and you will find the stats.

[@Panamenya]

People conflate "being better off" as the reason why people have fewer kids. Typically, it's the other way around: people gain the wisdom (typically via education, or a living example in their lives) to have fewer kids to increase their prosperity, they delay childbearing, and when they have kids, they have a few -- not a lot. And then they become more prosperous, on average. But people conflate the action with the result and say that the prosperity is what caused the lower birth rates. There is a feedback loop effect, whereby more prosperity leads to more education and more examples of lower birth rates that result in prosperity. And more prosperity tends to lean toward keeping the birth rates low, in order to hold onto that prosperity well into the next generations. @@mism847

[@UninstallingWindows]

One bad consequence on limiting nr of children to 1 per family, is that it creates an upside down pyramid, where young must support a huge number of old people.

[@StellaEFZ]

They'd die eventually

[@andvil01]

The productivity for every person is much higher today than yesterday. Fewer people produce more. We have machines. We do not need many young to support few old. The population can decline without starving out our seniors.

[@50_Pence]

And that men can't find partners - like in China

[@markusz4447]

also as we've seen in china it leads to too many males not beeing able to find women because they didn't get to live...

[@armadillotoe]

@@andvil01 So we can do away with young people and enjoy our worker and sex bots?

[@ross4814]

Hans was the Mr Rogers of Statistics to me. He was a brilliant man.

[@tristanchermack6735]

More lecturers need to use a medieval spear to give their presentations. Love it!

[@priteshquintondsouza7584]

Will remain immortal by his works. What an excellent educator with the most amazing and simplistic way to share knowledge. We truly miss you Sir.

[@PwnzTube]

I would love to have a cup of coffee with this gentleman. I sure hope the young people close to him are soaking up everything he has to offer our generation. We need more minds like his.

[@amigabang6157]

Look on the TED site at the video Hans Rosling TED@Cannes Global population growth, box by box, from 8 mins 10 seconds in. "We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things."

[@d-leb]

What an amazing speaker. I really, really like listening to his lectures.

[@rimshot6444]

Great explanation, means that over time number of people on earth is a function of: 1. rate of birth => generation 2. rate of death => de-generation. 3. life expectancy affects balancing time of the equation.

[@urasoul]

The ability to extract nitrogen from the air and use it in synthetic fertiliser was the primary trigger that allowed population explosion, without that there would not be enough food to support it.

[@hardheadjarhead]

It’s a pity we lost this guy. He was a great teacher. And here he’s absolutely right.

[@demonofparadise]

When I saw the spear at the start, I knew this was going to be awesome presentation.

[@stufields1385]

He didn't take into count the increases in birthrate experienced in some middle East countries. It was a cute presentation method though. Major problem was an indepth discussion of what would make the "Linear" birthrate decide to become exponentially negative. I don't know the time period of his work but I do know the politicians are continuing to support increasing growth.

[@btothec4650]

I am now watching Birthgap- a Childless World, which presents a view that the world will be faced with a new challenge of an increasing ageing population and fewer younger people to work and provide a tax base for services to the elderly as well as people to provide those services. Would have loved to have heard Hans’ views.

[@petiemelisse1504]

I'm so sad he died so young :( but he was a truly extraordinary man

[@sarahkerr6049]

Reason why he died: oy vey Shut IT DOWN!

[@Broomful]

Man I didn’t know 69 was the new young

[@Biobele]

As a person who has been poor in Africa from Africa; Children are a blessing they are an addition to the work force, they increase the odds of your survival more security, more farmers. The odds are higher that one of your children will marry into a wealthy family or will get lucky and become rich to help all the others out of poverty. But if you have one child and he or she dies or is "wayward" refuses to work and leads a reckless life you will suffer because elderly homes are not a thing in Africa, children take care of their elderly themselves; a 90year old may live with any of his children who is rich enough or may life with the youngest or poorest child while the richer children send money for both their father and their brother or sister taking care of him. That's how it works down here. Don't be scared we are not having many children to conquer the world after all we leave the lowest carbon trail, we have played no part in causing global warming. It's only natural that if I know my fruit tree is very likely to die before bearing fruits I should plant 2 or 3 to increase the odds of survival don't listen to fear mongers.

[@whatevergoesforme5129]

Asians on average are family-oriented and children are seen as the parents' pension plan and nursing homes. It is only in the West where affluent societies can afford welfare and nursing homes. I believe, Hispanics have the same family-oriented culture as Asians.

[@cw205mi16]

Notsomuch a “family orientated culture” but poorer economies

[@whatevergoesforme5129]

@@cw205mi16 Asians are family-oriented whether you like it or not. Yes, there are poor Asian countries but the rich Asian countries still value family compared to Westerners. That is why Asians in the US are also family-oriented, whether they are rich or poor families. Westerners value individualism more, on the other hand. So personal space and individual freedom are very important to them. It is just a different mindset. It is also true that poor countries have no welfare. In the past, even Western countries value the family because there was no welfare so the children are needed to take care of their aging parents. So your notion about poorer economies is valid in this scenario. It does not negate the truth that Asians are still family-oriented even in richer economies so family ties are very strong among Asians compared to their Western counterparts.

[@bishnupadadutta8871]

Asians are family oriented. It is mentioned in many of the comments. But it is not the full truth. At this moment Asian parents are family oriented but Asian children are not. Educated children are going to cities or to western countries to earn more leaving their old parents in villages to fight on their own. So why the next generation will have more children. They will have one or no children. The trend has started in large scale in India.

[@Barefoot433]

@@whatevergoesforme5129 I agree with you, and I'm qualified to know this.

[@Jayden-wv9bf]

Such an interesting lecture. So sad when I looked up the fellow and realized he passed away.

[@SandmanMGTOW]

Does this take into consideration falling fertility rates?

[@Icksnuck]

I suppose the argument is that even if fertility rates remain the same population won’t exceed 11 billion

[@Zelp789]

Next Ted Talk: 'Why the population won't reach 8 billion' Host: "WW3" (Credits)

[@scipioafricanus5871]

@@jciglesias7928 + bacteria develops antibiotic resistance...

[@ivanc-s]

Tell them to hurry with that talk. We r now at 7.8 billion.

[@Panamenya]

We are well past 8 billion and heading toward 9 billion in 14 years. The threat that is bigger than WW3 is the growing human population. You could say the growth is slowing down, but it's still growing nevertheless. Within the lifetimes of everyone here, it will never decrease, only ever increase. I am also skeptical of his extremely optimistic prediction that it will somehow never surpass 11 billion. Sounds like a fantasy. A nicely presented one, but not congruent with reality or human behavior, unfortunately. Since all of us will be dead by the time it does reach 11 billion, we, personally, will never know. But people born three generations from now will find out how wrong and cutely optimistic this talk was, as they're drowning in people and human-generated waste, and as the population continues to rise. Remember that the ONLY real solution for the problem of human overpopulation is our own collective, voluntary, conscious self-restraint in reproduction. If we don't learn this and act on it, we will not ever overcome this problem. We must voluntarily decide, together, all over the world, to reduce the number of births to below the number of deaths, every year. And we need to do it for a long, long time. Probably a couple of centuries, to get to sustainable levels where there is plenty of room for wildlife and some room for human-centric spaces.

[@MrMZaccone]

He's right, you don't FORCE people not to have children ... You pay them.

[@aaronmicalowe]

That's what he said.

[@kaunas888]

We now pay folks to have children.

[@MrMZaccone]

Not literally and not all of us. The Chinese actually paid people not to have children for many years. What we need to do is create incentives for people not to have children, especially in parts of the third world, where the resources to feed, clothe, and properly educate them don't exist.

[@aaronmicalowe]

The Chinese also kidnapped women late in pregnancy (like 8 months+) and forced them to have abortions against their will. Not a pretty situation.

[@MrMZaccone]

No. And you point is what?

[@exiled_londoner]

I'm impressed with the late Prof Rosling's analysis and I am largely convinced by his presentation, despite the fact that I broadly accept the Malthusian notion that populations tend to increase in line with the available resources to sustain them (primarily food). However, I do see some problems with Prof Rosling's analysis in practice, not necessarily because he was wrong about the overall figures but because I think these figures alone are only a part of the problem. As was clearly illustrated in the presentation, population growth is very uneven and declines in births in one region are compensated for by continued growth in other regions (Africa primarily). It is suggested that even growth in Africa will fall dramatically once mortality rates amongst the young decline and access to contraception and health services will kick in and do the job. Well, I am far from convinced that mortality rates will continue to fall and I suspect that health services in poorer regions of the world will not improve, and may even decline rapidly (as they have in, for instance, Afghanistan) as the carrying capacity of the globe (food production and distribution) is disrupted by Climate Change and the famines and wars and mass movements of people that will follow. The global population may stabilise at around eleven thousand million, as the Professor said, but if large parts of the world become effectively uninhabitable, and the knock on effects of the resulting refugee crises spread chaos into neighbouring regions (for example, Liberal Democracy in Europe will not survive if there are a hundred million desperate and starving refugees climbing over the barbed-wire border fences in the East and paddling across the Mediterranean on anything that floats in the South). We have to stabilise the population, but on a downward trajectory, because accepting a figure of eleven thousand million when we have no plans in place to feed such a number, let alone see that they have access to contraception and health services, is a recipe for disaster. Whether we can do any of this in practice is highly debatable and personally I am not optimistic, but giving up all attempts would be a counsel of despair and would seal the fate of out children and grandchildren, and I'm not yet prepared to do that.

[@exiled_londoner]

@Charles White "Africa is currently flooding the world with migrants, whilst they continue to increase their own population." I'm afraid I smell a whiff of racism here, but let's give Mr White the benefit of the doubt and address his point. Africa is not "flooding" the world: the poorer regions of the globe are the most impacted by the Global Warming, and resultant Climate Change that Europe and North America have inflicted on us all. These disastrous impacts will make much of the world uninhabitable and so of course people will flee the famines and wars and societal collapse this will bring. As I said in my original comment, there is a massive job to do in trying to stabilise the situation and I am not that optimistic, but it is the responsibility (both moral and practical) of the richer parts pf the world to get together and work out where and how to put in the necessary resources. it is not just 'their' problem... it is 'our' problem, and to be blunt, we have more to lose than the poor sods in Africa so we'd better get on with it... sharpish!

[@MrProthall]

I remember my Grandma talking about it. She had 8 kids. 3 survived to adulthood.

[@Hollow_Cause_Dont_Matter]

This guy looks like a warrior with that spear.

[@tobiasdontmatter1868]

My great grandparents lived to 90 and both chain smoked. My grandpa died at 86 My grandma is 78. All older than the “life expectancy” of 71 years. Our childrens children will be older than a hundred

[@marklondon2008]

My grandmas died at 43 & 78. Grandad's roughly the same. Life expectancy is falling, even in 1st world countries. Yes, we'll see some records broken with longevity but it won't be global.

[@Tim.1113]

I don’t know if I can agree with that statement. Years ago people worked hard to make a living and now it is a lot of desk jobs that allow people to not get their heart rate up. I’m no doctor but just seeing my ancestors who were farmers living just as long as the current generation make me wonder about the longevity of life.

[@gavinsepanik6287]

someone get this man a laser pointer

[@chazconnacher6178]

in his next life maybe

[@stephanejourdan3286]

It shows his intellectual understanding of things...

[@Williamottelucas]

6:10 "Old people like us - we die." Which Hans did, in 2017. Sadly, he didn't live another 15 years.

[@LetsbeHonestOfficial]

Thanos has another solution

[@Bdawg420zz]

Hahaha

[@Ivan-jt2te]

Lenin had proposed better solution for all of us.

[@paultremblay4836]

All holliwood movies have a message from the illuminati.

[@bingflosby]

Thanos was trying to please mistress death not population control learn ur canon nub

[@Vazcular]

@AzrielJale The movies aren't canon.

[@waswestkan]

An interesting presentation. I live in a rural Kansas small town where it's still common where those who com from a family that had 7 children have 7 children themselves. One would think this town would have more than 2000 residents. Because this are doesn't have the resource to support such a population there is an out migration, where kids go to consume resources elsewhere.While there is clearly exponential population growth in many area, I will no longer use exponential growth for, rather simply say ing unsustainable population growth.. There are simply areas of the planet where people will not use family planning at all of any sort. Of core an ubexpecteted atronomical or geological event could be our doom, but humanty could be the cause of the end of humanity. The planent does care it can have a natural death, not missing us at all until then.

[@madisonvillavert5692]

What I know is that in my country, the philippines, population keeps on growing and if we dont control it, our countrys resources will not be able to support its people.

[@johntaves487]

Your country, my country, and all other countries are unable to support it's people with their RENEWABLE resources. The non-renewables will run out and the population will be killed back to the level that the renewables can keep alive.

[@ivancicin-sain1069]

Yes, it's a pity that a man with such charisma (and supported by such tech wizardry) was telling us not to worry about the thing that is affecting humanities demise.

[@baxakk7374]

Asia is not too bad, of course, the Philippines, Indonesia could do better, but Africa is the craziest, they are still having 5-6 children. What's worse is the majority of them don't think it's a problem.

[@lacy4035]

@@baxakk7374 Asia have 5 billion population Africa population is equal to China or India or China population is even more so I think Asia is the problem here because u have to combine north ,south America plus Europe plus Africa and still Asia is still leading

[@BS-vx8dg]

Hans Rosling was simply the best. His death was a great loss to the world and to policy making. I would love to have had his take during the Covid pandemic.

[@OjashShrestha95]

Rest in Peace Hans. You were an amazing Teacher!

[@ape_human]

R.I.P.

[@MrSvenovitch]

One less idiot spreading lies and nonsense. May he burn forever in a lake of fire

[@himanshusingh5214]

That's why religion is bad. ()Sven()

[@adnanasifalrahman3470]

Sir, that's a best clear explanation i have heard... Thank u..

[@jamespilkenton79]

I wish the volume was able to go up a lot more.

[@Broadbased]

Interesting talk, but what is his basis for assuming that average lifespan will not greatly exceed 71 years and that child growth will stabilize? For the latter, he appears to be projecting the European and North American demography on Asia and Africa, but can we really do so without taking into account sociological and cultural differences? Also, aren't we then assuming that poverty will end in Africa? Especially that last assumption is not at all in line with the current economic developments.

[@leonhardfrommhold8463]

Enki Denys the lifespan won’t greatly exceed 71 because 71 is already pushing a humans body to its limit. Your body does not really work past some point, everything stops working, the risk for cancer exponentially increases, your immune system turns into shit, broken bones don’t heal together anymore. 71 is already extremely old but it is as old as you can really get. At some point you won’t get an old car to work without replacing all of its components. And I wanna see you replace every single human cell.

[@comradesillyotter1537]

The population precident has been universal. From the U.S (who used to be the mass breeder of the day), to China, to India, to Iran, to South Africa.

[@JodyFrancisWall]

There are plenty of demonstrations of population groups living on average 10, 15, and 20 years older than 71. Diet, and lifestyle have a huge impact on lifespan. Averages are deceptive. Reduce the child mortality rate in Africa, and it's age of death becomes very similar to the West.

[@Wellesley805]

That's exactly what I thought. He's making a few major assumptions on the global scale. Several nation's throughout Africa are modern and bringing modernity to the surrounding countries, as well as Asia. It's not that they have more children, but more will survive and grow older as healthcare improves across their continent. I also think his graph is extremely misleading right off the bat, it appears like Africa is smaller in population than both Europe and the America's. It's as large if not larger than the other two in terms of population. He makes a great argument but I can't get past some major assumptions

[@joshhodkinson9677]

I imagine Hans arrived from a whaling expedition to give this talk.

[@Hunsuck_O_Rama]

Josh Hodkinson 😂👍🏻 So TRUE!!

[@kandie2318]

I read his book.. watched his video... then I realized that he died. RIP legend

[@lunaflamed]

Hurts BAD knowing we will never get to meet him. WHT is the name of his book?

[@moonbuilder]

This is very interesting. But difficult to hear if you are hard of hearing. Is there any way the volume could be increased? This might mean reloading it from a more modern device. Pleeeeeeeeeeeease.

[@contextenglish]

The world need to see this. 💕

[@felixzehetner7302]

Good content. Killing is not the solution - although apparently some people think so. Btw Are the results still actual? Has it been proven?

[@mactastic144]

Felix Zehetner CNN and Pew believe this to be true now. A couple years ago, they were like ugh what? No.

[@Panamenya]

It's not possible to prove this until we reach the point where there are 11 billion people in the world. That won't happen for another ~77 years. We will all be dead by then. So no, it's not been proven.

[@johnh5646]

Came here after watching Utopia on Amazon Prime and it gives me hope.

[@PurooRoy]

But Utopia DID address this also. He said that by the time the world population stabilises, all wildlife would be gone. Also population stabilising at 11 billion is not something to feel happy about, since that's even more population than what it is right now.

[@fiddley]

I miss Hans Rosling . I heard of him much too late, and then he was gone. An amazing chap.

[@Broomful]

I wish I found out about him sooner but I am only a teen but I’ll make sure to continue his legacy if I become a scientist or philosopher

[@rynor7132]

Love how KZbinrs are always smarter than anyone in the videos they are watching. I no longer watch the videos of those buffoons (thanks @David Franco Jr). Instead, I chose my videos based on the click bait title, then I soak up all the knowledge the geniuses of the KZbin Verse are leaving the comment section. I have learned so much from them.

[@scipioafricanus5871]

/s

[@philledwith8307]

Very smart man, and still my guru for data visualisation. Two things he did not anticipate, nearly a decade ago: (i) that the "2 childrens" would actually become one child or less throughout much of the world, inverting the pyramid, and (ii) that life expectancy would increase through a concentrated program of radical life extension. So his blocks stack higher, but they are also thinner at the bottom.

[@yesimkhanh9932]

would like to know the source of second point

[@CherubiJubell]

I have been saying this forever! I am glad I found someone more intelligent and eloquent to show people👍

[@bensutton3527]

Excellent video! One thing I didn't understand though - in the graph at the end, why can't/doesn't it just keep getting wider? I.e. why does one child move from Asia to Africa instead of Africa increasing while Asia remains constant?

[@gjh42]

Because Asians, especially Chinese, are having significantly fewer than two children per woman. Japan has a similar crisis; with no immigration, their population is tipping to an elderly majority.

[@Mad-i134]

It's March, 2019 "Where are we now in population?"

[@Doolbo]

wtf why does he have a spear

[@shazmunchdylbertoid]

asking the big questions

[@rimax82]

My first thought! ;-) an old school laser pointer B-)

[@johnfrancisdoe1563]

rimax82 Also doubles as remote control for the projector screen and moveable blackboards.

[@m4rvinmartian]

He has a fixation on the MS Windows black arrow pointer

[@plaguedoct0r]

That question can only be answered with another question: Why don't you? Spears are awesome.

[@stuart6478]

i think its funny that people don't realize most people don't want to live past 70

[@mendax2251]

Why?

[@iordanneDiogeneslucas]

@@mendax2251 would you rather go to the funerals of everyone you love or have all the people you love at your funeral?

[@mendax2251]

@@iordanneDiogeneslucas I think I would prefer to be alive even if I don’t have my friends to enjoy life with

[@princessdewi4626]

Not me. I want to reach 100+ years old before I DIED. 95-110 years old is good enough for me!

[@CliffCardi]

I recently heard that as we reached 8 billion and then India surpassing China in population, the world birth rate is finally slowing down in 2023.

[@johnnysmoke612]

Very interesting and presented well, thank you.

[@Tsukasa6669]

While he was a brilliant man and made incredible speeches on this topic, it still doesn't eliminate the problem of us exaspirating our natural resources :/

[@bashisobsolete.pythonismyn6321]

that's a good discussion for another time but, rest assure, there's plenty for everyone.

[@Tsukasa6669]

Dan Tyler oh don't worry, at the rate were destroying our wildlife it won't be long in the grand scope of things that we won't have oxygen to breath

[@dantyler6907]

David Stephens So, libs might just think ALL people need to go ahead and breath deep of car exhaust?

[@Tsukasa6669]

Dan Tyler your a delusional idiot

[@Tsukasa6669]

Reinhard Heydrich lack of oxygen through deforestation is what I am implying, but I shall check out your statement :)

[@alphacentauri7381]

I vote for pulling out !

[@jerrymalone1100]

Fools..all of you. Population will die a slow agonizing death due to starvation

[@MycketTuff]

@@jerrymalone1100 "Fools.. all of you!" hahah.. are we larping?

[@67NewEngland]

“I vote for pulling out” ..I vote you should too.

[@BulletGramm]

Just wear condoms you nasty disease spreading fucks.

[@Yoshi92]

@@BulletGramm your sentence can only come from a virgin, or a fcker that has never fcked without condom. oof man really sorry for u, must be a hard life

[@josephyoung6749]

Wow this is an issue that has been discussed by philosophers for hundreds of years (the best and most recent probably being Bergson's treatment of overpopulation towards the end of his oeuvre), and yet in one 15 minute video this guy has somehow assuaged the concern (even dread) that has accumulated in my mind about this issue; about sex, religion, fear of death etc... this is a wonderful video!

[@Ryan-hi9dm]

This is the greatest comment section I've ever seen in my life.

[@ihavewiiings5040]

i wish this dude could be around to see what the world is gonna be ;-;

[@codyjones1098]

his example of love and sex and reproduction is an excellent point.

[@seamus9305]

Hans died at 68. Thank you Hans for the education, positiveness and humor.

[@nils-erikolsson3539]

Extremely simplified. What he shows is if nothing changes. Climate will take care of the change unfortunately.

[@simeon324]

fortunately

[@mikerodgers7620]

Climate always changes 😁

[@LtHarkness187]

@Nils-Erik Olsson, that's why he used a spear not a laser pointer Quote Vince Fagan

[@rizaljose8531]

there is no climate change, there is only human geoengineering so they can put up the carbon tax.

[@TheDjcarter1966]

You do realize warmer climate actually as been a population and prosperity boom in the past right?

[@Irene-iu9sj]

Here,in Greece, because our population is in decline,we have a say: One for the mother,one for the father,and one for our cantry.... but today,we have one or none . very few couples have 3...4 is the rare exception. Sad.

[@mikaharju5115]

I wonder if those older and older and older people eat and consume earth resources less and less and less than those people who lived hundreds of years ago. I doubt.

[@dantyler1558]

Mika Harju Maybe the same? We have to keep in mind, people have not lived as long, long ago, as they do today. So, as people got old thousands of years ago, they probably just got tired and died. Today, people stop working and continue to live on and on.

[@W1ldSm1le]

Well technology allows us to be better stewards than our ancestors. For instance not many people know, that there are more trees in the northern hemisphere than at any point in the last 500 years. Not having wood be the primary energy source for literally every human activity coupled with a big bang in our understanding of ecology has facilitated this change.

[@kamakaziozzie8379]

Shit Poster, you got a good point. I wasn't aware they did a tree count count before the conquistadors came to the New World. Keep up the good work clearcutting of those old growth forests

[@W1ldSm1le]

People had no means of stopping wildfires back then, they relied almost solely on wood for shelter, warmth and cooking, there were no laws regarding clearcutting, you dont have to have a numerical survey to know that. In most of the northern hemisphere logging is heavily controlled and action plans to reestablish the forest have to be in place before the first tree drops. Selectively cutting emergent and canopy trees can actually be a boon to the forest as a whole, creating oasis' for animals that depend on the herbaceous layer. Where I live (US, Maine) most of my state would be inaccessible without logging roads and we would be defenseless against a fire that could wipe out 10s if not 100s of thousands of acres.

[@HighestRank]

KamakaziOzzie right! Europe is tiny and inconsequential, and most of Russia/Asia never calls them "trees". Hey, 500 years ago the Americans didn't even call them trees in EITHER 'hemisphere'.

[@vesakittela5793]

which group of people in Sweden have birth rate over 2?

[@abdullahrubiyath]

RIP Hans Rosling. What an amazing man

[@lessemo]

WHAT? He died?

[@njurasovic]

He actually exploded into a mass of wrying babies. "This is OK, we are the 3 billion." The babies are quoted as saying, "We are the new balance."

[@BarMagnet]

Wouldn't it be interesting if he could provide an analysis of the peak populations of some other of nature's species. It's as though he thinks humans live in a grand isolation. And ALL without mention of Haber Bosch.

[@jordanreeseyre]

Considering were the only species that's invented condoms, fertiliser & vaccines I'm not sure what he'd hope to learn by looking at other species.

[@breakdance4cash228]

2:10 for those of you doing Meth xD

[@King-mj2bn]

2:26 "But there's so much crack." I see what he's driving at, world drug war.

[@keiahnigbruder1453]

Hahahahaha

[@decrodedart2688]

Lmfao

[@10AntsTapDancing]

He said math not meth lol Swedish accent :)

[@10AntsTapDancing]

@@King-mj2bn crap not crack

[@Swardets]

I had the pleasure of watching this lecture in its whole live, but in Swedish in Sweden, 2015. Now more than ever, we miss Hans and his work. Reast in Peace 💙

[@mantheman100]

Floki sounds too much like this guy, it's awesome. Rip Hans

[@ManInTheBigHat]

Love his spear action.

[@klausschwabshubris]

Brilliant, age brings knowlege and common sense and this man has it.

[@chrisshotwell4442]

Really great demonstration of how demographic changes happen! I just wish the sound was a little higher!

[@Inveterat]

He sound a bit like Loki from Vikings no?

[@RGustavsson90]

Alexandru Dogarel You mean Floki. Both Hans and Gustav skarsgård are Swedish so that's their accent. Gustav speak better english than Hans but has a made up accent for his role in vikings.

[@fascistswan3470]

RGustavsson90 all I know is he sounds exactly how a scientist should sound. I'm american.

[@wbx9126]

that's the first thing I noticed

[@turreu]

He sounds like Triumph the insult comic dog

[@ThePVTfaszkivan]

Floki is that you?

[@timdeboerz]

giggle giggle haha :)

[@SilverFan21k]

Yes but do we really need 10 billion people?

[@axelnils]

No, but the only way to stop before 10 billion is killing old people or offering family planning in Africa. Unless you volunteer yourself?

[@Panamenya]

Of course not. We don't need more than 8 billion, but here we are, at well over 8 billion now.

[@donovian2538]

Why are all of Hans Rosling's lectures recorded so quietly? He's clearly not whispering.

[@bozomonkey2007]

Actually a balance with nature means little or no growth, hence the term balance. Nature includes a high death rate for animals and it was like that for us in the past. So you could argue we were in balance and now are out of balance. This guy argues we will reach a balance point around 11 billion. Maybe. That is still a lot of billions more people in the world. How does the earth and nature feel about it? I think the earth is more than adequately topped off with humans and should look for a gradual decline in population now.

[@jordanreeseyre]

Wishing for less people is one thing, actually doing it is abother. Who do you choose to remove? As the video explains.

[@petabrain]

Edit: I was wrong. This idea (of mine, my contention) is incorrect because it fails to see that after the first grandparents die, the top of their heritage is dying at the same rate as reproduction. The only thing that controls population size in that scenario (2 offspring per couple) is life duration expectancy. Original comment: He forgot to add a column after every step in this box analogy. Even if every couple only has two children, that won't keep the population stable. A human's lifetime spans roughly 70 years, and usually gets to their own grandchildren. A human is going to produce another human within roughly 30 years of existence, lasting 70 years, meaning that each human is going to breathe the same air as *two* of their own generation. It's a tree structure, not linear. The analogy demonstrated with the boxes would have been correct if a human would only live until their first grandchild is born.

[@geological7]

I don't fully understand your comment, but I think you are wrong. If every couple has 2 children then the population is replaced linearly like he demonstrated with the boxes.

[@petabrain]

@@geological7 that would have been true if grandparents weren't alive to see their grandchileren. Try to test this imagining that grandparents live for 20 years past their grandchildren's birth, you will see that the population continues to grow in this case -- there are more and more people alive in each birthing cycle and it never reaches stability. In other words, his analogy incorrectly kills people as soon as they have grandchildren.

[@jeroentje58]

You missed it completely. Even the simple boxes does not help you understand? The grandparents are not getting children anymore. The tower is getting higher (people grow older), not wider (two children per person average). It is simple math. The production rate determines the maximum outcome.

[@petabrain]

@@jeroentje58 given that grandparents get to breathe the same air as their grandchildren for some time, each generation leads to that there are more people breathing on the planet even if every couple only has two children. The rate of death in that situation is slower than the rate of reproduction. Every 70ish year life is rolling a heritage which produces new life every about 25-30 years. We lose a life every about 3 generations. Some get to see their grand-grandchildren, who may also get to experience this. Edit: you are right. I *am* wrong here. After the first 70 years of the first grandparent, their offering are beginning to die off at the rate of generation.

[@rombarker3129]

Don't they have laser pointers in Sweden? Why is this guy still using an "Ottoman war spear"?

[@13salinaspride]

Rom Barker maybe he's ol school. Can't reach an old dog new tricks haha😂🙏

[@SPdesi1]

Shocking and truly eye opening and thought provoking analysis of World's growing population.