Why This World Chess Championship is Impossible to Predict

[@jacksarkisian]

EDIT: The time control for the event is 120 minutes, with 30 minutes being allocated on move 41 along with the 30 second increment. Chess.com's official article has the wrong time control and just used last years format. Grammatical error in my script also, Rapport was not missing in the FIDE Olympiad, but missing SINCE the FIDE Olympiad. Sinquefield Cup was held after the 2024 Candidates, but even still preparation would be rationed by both players heading towards the WCC ~3 months later. Prize splitting for the WCC is worded strangely on the FIDE website, however in the event that the match does not reach 14 games - the remaining prize pool is split evenly between the players. Gukesh placed 1st in the Tata Steel Masters, but lost in a tiebreak game to Wei Yi.

[@diogotimas685]

another point, rapport did play in the olympiad. love the video btw

[@siyabongadladla4541]

Do you listen to Lil Peep

[@jacksarkisian]

@@diogotimas685 yeah this wasn't as much as a factual error but i just read from my script wrong, "Rapport has been missing since the Olympiad" was what i had meant to say 😅

[@jacksarkisian]

@@siyabongadladla4541 ofc bro but probably not my favourite artist atm - A$AP Rocky on 🔝

[@vibhor5015]

-You lost at me at Alireza played well vs Gukesh in candidates. Gukesh lost that in time scramble. -Rapport played at Olympiad and also drew vs Gukesh. He famously changed back to Hungary federation for the home Olympiad. -Gukesh didn't win Tata Steel Masters 2024 outright. He was shared 1st with 4 players at +4. Wei Yi won that in blitz. -Sinquefield was not before Candidates. It was in July and Candidates in April.

[@jacksarkisian]

have put these in the edited pinned comment. i think its extremely harsh to suggest Alireza played poorly against Gukesh in the candidates, Alireza had 8 minutes less than Gukesh when he found the brilliant Qb3. he also played with 97% accuracy to Gukesh's 86%. i mentioned Gukesh was unfortunate to have lost it as well, but Alireza certainly outplayed him when push came to shove.

[@evantm2588]

I don’t know much about KZbin but I feel like the title should just be “World Chess Championship 2024 EXPLAINED” because you really broke everything down amazingly. Good shit , good video, keep it up!

[@jacksarkisian]

haha i did struggle a bit with the title, fitting "World Chess Championship" into anything is gonna make it super wordy regardless of how you put it. glad you enjoyed the video bro

[@jonathanbiro1533]

Fantastic background research on the opening preferences and performances in past tournaments. Really outclassing some of the bigger channels.

[@jacksarkisian]

appreciate it bro

[@Sitbear]

It’s actually easy to predict, as long as you don’t care about accuracy

[@bacanboy3681]

Ding will be fully focused and ready to defend his title. He will prove that he is a worthy champion.

[@ArshPlaysChess]

I am a simple man. I see jacksark video, i click.

[@jacksarkisian]

W mans

[@GaugeSymm]

It is not impossible to predict. Predictions are not absolute, no one knows the future, in that sense no can predict anything. However, it is absolutely reasonable to assume that Ding is not recovering his 2019 form, may be his 2023 form at best, given how strong Gukesh is, even 2023 Ding who won against Ian will not beat Gukesh. (This of course assumes Gukesh does not crumble or botch like Ian, which given his mental strength, seems quite reasonable to assume, yes he will feel the pressure and yes he will be nervous, at the end of the day, it is still a chess game and a chess battle. Magnus was also new and young against 5 times WC Vishy and despite Magnus's nervousness and pressure of playing in India, Magnus crushed Vishy)

[@Zwellop]

About Rapport being Ding's second: I think it's unlikely because of this Hindustan Times interview he did. He mentions their collaboration ending and talks about the match from a 3rd person perspective. + Rapport did not miss the Olympiad

[@jacksarkisian]

completely right sorry, i had meant that Rapport has been missing since the FIDE Olympiad. didn’t know about the interview with the Hindustan Times though, i wonder if Wei Yi is an option now that he’s graduated from university and back to competitive Chess full time - although i’ve seen interviews suggesting he wants to become a world champion himself so who knows.

[@gbshh9037]

Ding!

[@lemomar]

I’m loving the regular content

[@jacksarkisian]

thankyou bro hahah trying to upload much more consistently lately, going for bi-daily uploads atm

[@lemomar]

@ And yet the quality hasn’t dropped, you’re onto something mate!

[@bibhashbiswas8869]

There is a saying.."Fortune favours the brave"..and we all know that Gukesh is really brave.

[@prakharbg9763]

As a 2300 lichess player, I respect your take on this WCC but we have to understand that Gukesh playing style is perfect for classical stated by Carlsen himself. He is one of the best calculative player as he just calculates nonstop and has outcalculated Magnus himself in some games. Well obviously Magnus is still better due to his precise intution, experience and amazing endgame technique. I highly doubt Ding will be able to match that spirit. Well these were all technical points but there is also one more point to consider. I am an Indian, I know how important chess match is for Gukesh and India. He will play like his life depends on it, for example in the Olympiad Gukesh had to become unbeatable to secure a gold on table 1 to get the prize money. Later he stated in an interview that he had an personal debt which he had to pay. That was an olympiad but this is a historical WCC, imagine the difference. So in conclusion there is WC playing which is 99% out of form and a young guy playing which is one of the best form and his whole life depends on it.

[@jacksarkisian]

i think you're 100% right, Gukesh is far more hungry for this win than Ding is - Ding really has nothing to prove. i think the one factor people underestimate is the format though. if Gukesh doesn't get off to a good start he could fall into a pit and not know how to get out. especially considering Ding's preparation is likely to be much better. its not like a regular tournament where you play a different person each time and can strategize what you play - you'll play the same openings over and over hoping for a different result than the last. with that being said i do still think Gukesh will win, but only 20% odds for Ding seems insanely low for the circumstances.

[@ManiS-wd2eu]

Gukesh dream is to win the world champion match against magnus Carlson, once he mentioned earlier in his interview at age of 12, he motivate himself to achieve this level of game as a challenger of WCC is a great thing, we will see how those technical points and datas of the past will workout or both the players play at the moment of the match.

[@ManiS-wd2eu]

Gukesh dream is win the world champion match against magnus Carlson he mentioned in his interview at age of 12, now one motivate himself to achieve this level of game as a challenger of WCC is a great thing, we will see how those technical points and datas of the past will workout or both the players play at the moment of the match.

[@pratik6342]

Guki monster!!!!!

[@Randomthings1210]

Great video but a lot of factual errors: 1. Rapport played FIDE Olympiad from Hungary 2. Sinquefield cup happened after candidates so, so Gukesh wasn’t heading towards candidates 3. Abasov did not draw Gukesh, Gukesh won both games against Abasov 4. If match ends early, remaining prize fund will not be given to winner, it will be split between players. Also, you cannot compare with Nepo match as the rules were different at that time

[@jacksarkisian]

thanks for this, have put some of the edits in the pinned comment. for 3. i meant he drew him into an opening - meaning it was Abasov that made him play it. like you draw a conclusion from a set of information.

[@biratdatta]

We need channel like you more who are small creators but creating good content for most of the viewers

[@chayankhere]

Respect the grind Jack

[@jacksarkisian]

appreciate you bro ❤️

[@ananthakrishnank3208]

Gukesh, even after losing one game, will come fully motivated the next day. The same cannot be said for Ding Liren.

[@HorrorGoofy]

we saw ding coming back 3 time in world champonship what r u smoking

[@ananthakrishnank3208]

@@HorrorGoofy Gukesh is not missing mate in 2 like Ding, nor he is going to lose his own bishop in 2 moves like Nepo (ref Nepo's C5 against Magnus). Still deep in my heart, I want 2800 level Gukesh versus Peak Ding. Like in a very tough match, Gukesh somehow won one game.

[@Iwachu420]

I want Ding to win so bad

[@jacksarkisian]

i'm gonna feel so bad for whoever loses icl, at least if Gukesh wins he'll 100% get another shot at it.

[@YadugovindM]

Ding will loose

[@walterwhite13]

@@jacksarkisian Wait i don't understand....wdym by he'll get another shot at it?

[@NN-fw9il]

@@jacksarkisian not necessarily imo.Ridiculous amount of young talent in the wings.Ig he does have a knack for winning and clutching important events though so he'd probably get another shot even if he loses.

[@phanindrakumar3221]

Ding will loose

[@Ghotu664]

Better than the Chess Elite channels they are just clickbaity but bro is really working he should have 3.72 million subs while he has 37.3K Please keep giving educational content for advance players. Basically what i am trying to say is that the high rated need to work themselves there are very few channels for them. But Fortunately this is one of them :) Thanks Jack for doing this work for us :).

[@Relisoc4]

Idk the only way I could reasonably predict ding winning is if I thought this whole downfall arc is just some elaborate snake-in-the-grass routine to disarm gukesh. If ding’s mental is actually at where he’s indicating it’s at, there’s just no way. It doesn’t really happen in high level competition that someone is that mentally broken and still wins

[@jacksarkisian]

if it was it would be insane. Ryan Garcia did the exact same thing before he beat Devin Haney (which got overturned because of PEDs but the same premise). i think the main factor people completely underestimate is the format though. its absolutely nothing like a regular tournament - versing the same player 14 times in a classical time control is like nothing Gukesh has ever experienced before. his chances of winning will significantly increase in my opinion depending on how big of a role Anand has in his training.

[@Ebobster]

I think we will see at least one Trompowsky or Torre attack and one Jobava London as both players are looking for novel situations. I believe Ding has been playing “possum” and hiding his true repertoire, but admittedly if not he may well get crushed. Either way for chess fans the world over just hope it’s a close fighting match.

[@zoolity]

I am HYPED! I have school during the days but who on earth cares? I will be 100% watching this in class and studying

[@chesswithNaguib]

This was a really good breakdown of the entire tournament itself! I love it

[@tobias2252]

Appreciate that this video is 100% about chess and 0% speculation on the player's mental state. Very well done. Let's hope for an exciting WCC!

[@christianbarea9844]

Thanks for the great video. I thought it’s gonna be a stomp but after hearing your opinion I’m pretty hyped for the matchup

[@FarzyPlaysChess]

I predict that this video is going to be fire as always

[@FarzyPlaysChess]

Update: it was indeed fire 🔥

[@albybasil1937]

I think it will be a close fight between ding and gukesh but gukesh will win tournament

[@GmThorfinn]

You are doing great bro this type of video need in chess community❤

[@jacksarkisian]

thankyou bro more to come soon ❤️

[@iwill5810]

I think people are sleeping on Ding

[@cs7718-k4s]

Ding played in the 2024 grenke chess classic

[@jacksarkisian]

this was considered Rapid according to FIDE, not Classical. Ding also played in Magnus' Freestyle Chess but i felt the differences were too major to be considered.

[@mathewpankratz5767]

I think it’s admirable you’re trying to hype this match up, but unless Ding has been pretending to be really damaged, Gukesh is going to crush him. I’d love to see Ding win, but it’s not going to happen. Ding has dropped to worlds #24, 23? Regardless, Gukesh is in far better form. Ding ducked him at the Olympiad and probably did his team a failure by letting someone else lose to Gukesh. Gukesh is going to be incredibly well prepared and in top form. Ding has been falling apart all year. It’s going to be a bloodbath

[@jacksarkisian]

to be honest usually i’d agree with you, but like many others i thought Nepo would absolutely destroy Ding in 2023, and that didn’t happen at all. the only reason that didn’t happen was because the format is so brutal - something Gukesh will have to approach the right way for sure.

[@sourabhpatne6618]

Underrated guy

[@K.S_20087]

Can i gamble on this world championship?

[@jacksarkisian]

brother you can gamble on anything nowadays 😭😭

[@chessUSER1234eividukas1]

i want to ding to win he is a good guy

[@pemrograman-cepat3393]

Probably Alireza will win. Magnus once said “my fav opponent was alireza”. It means magnus found that alireza was hard to beat

[@jacksarkisian]

brother how do i tell you this 😭😭

[@athiestperson5947]

@@jacksarkisian lol

[@pratik6342]

Bro...don't you have a brain? 😂

[@PURAHAN]

Best vid I have watched today.

[@jacksarkisian]

best vid you'll watch until i upload again tbh

[@martyshwaartz971]

No no everyone says Ding is washed, its a done deal.

[@Ghotu664]

make a video on bogo and nimzo indian please.

[@VijayThakurMD]

Time to make 200 dollars

[@vaibhavkumar-ql2fw]

Gukesh

[@CallumOKane]

I can definitely predict everything! I gambled 10 million. I did loose it all but at least I made a prediction, which shows you can predict things! Nobody said you had to predict correctly 😡

[@jacksarkisian]

bro might've just broke the matrix

[@gmludovic]

use me as a Gukesh winning button

[@jacksarkisian]

👀👀

[@adityapacharne5688]

I'll use you as my personal twink

[@hackerrank9173]

Come to my home, I need to press you hard....

[@jaylenlenear3944]

what players are known to throw tournaments ? I know players will skip a tournament to hide their prep but never throw.

[@GuyOnPhilippines]

I predict Gukesh to win. *Sometimes, things that are impossible are actually possible* (It IS possible to predict.)

[@jacksarkisian]

nah bro i scientifically proved it

[@sumanraj9394]

Are you insane? "Players are known to throw away tournaments in order to save prep" This is the most clown take ive ever heard in relation to chess. Someone who started chess a week ago might say this. Give me one example of any era where you saw this happening. If players want to save prep then they can play something else, their are 1000's of lines to choose from, why would they purposefully throw tournaments, just use some common sense

[@jacksarkisian]

not really an insane take, happens literally every world chess championship and candidates cycle. of course players won’t purposely lose, but they won’t push for wins and end up with mostly draws and an underwhelming performance. there’s a big difference between playing a line you haven’t studied in years, and playing the line you’ve been studying for the last X months. in some cases players also commit to tournaments not knowing they would qualify for something else. for example all candidates players schedule their tournaments for after the candidates conclude. the winner of the candidates couldn’t have known they would win beforehand, and therefore has a tournament they would rather not use their main repertoire in. fabiano caruana is a good example, he frequently saves his opening preparation for candidates tournaments, he did it most recently in 2022 and 2024.

[@sumanraj9394]

​@@jacksarkisian Well now you are making sense but you literally said the same thing i quoted 3 times in the video Saying players performance is underwhelming prior to big tournaments like candidates and world championships is completely different from saying "players are known to throw tournaments in order to save prep". Feels like misinformation

[@jacksarkisian]

@@sumanraj9394all good bro i might’ve worded it badly. but yeah i just meant they don’t take the tournament seriously like they normally would & end up with mediocre results.

[@HaikuPlays]

4 minutes!

[@Day-wm7nn]

Gukesh will win and it won't even be close

[@jacksarkisian]

i think its 50/50. either Gukesh wins 8 - 2 or something insane, or Ding wins 7.5 - 6.5. no matter which way you spin it though Ding is never going to run away with it imo

[@SarpreetSingh-b5o]

first

[@jacksarkisian]

🥇🥇

[@theNfl_Esq]

Ding doesn’t have a chance

[@timflick2350]

No matter who wins that faceoff, we all know Carlson is the true world champion. Neither of them stand a chance across the board from Magnus.

[@andrey_lifting9021]

I agree. Carlsen is the GOAT of chess... However given that he is unwilling to play for the world champion title, someone has to play right? The world champion match will keep happening whether Carlsen plays or not

[@MadaraUchiha-iu3ld]

A champion who walks away is no champion. Let him enjoy his speed chess & shuffle chess.

[@pratikchessvideos]

31 seconds!!!! first comment pin me

[@pratikchessvideos]

edit also first view

[@infomatters.]

Wrong

[@adityapacharne5688]

Good video bro