Why We're Avoiding IonQ Stock

[@joepiv]

COMMENTS POLICY: People are expected to behave in a manner that enriches the conversation. Criticisms are strongly encouraged as long as they are presented in a civil manner. Any rude obnoxious attack-the-messenger rubbish will be given one warning. After that, comments will be removed and the individual who made them will be blocked.

[@ofamily8180]

Sir, IONQ is my sacred cow. I went all in on this stonk and my hopes, dreams and futures are tied to it. I am massively offended by this video.

[@Nanalyze]

Underrated comment this one.

[@ryanmozert]

go rigetti

[@nx3617]

Monroe and Kim have stated they can scale their technology when others will need breakthroughs in physics to make meaningful progress. There's value in IonQ's talent, if you watch them discussing QC's with other experts you can tell they are holding all the cards. Others are hoping they can catch up so their research hasn't gone to waste. There's also value in the hype. They have the lead for the most exciting and promising technology of the 21st Century, and it's a stock solely dedicated to building on that lead. I'd compare IonQ to Tesla, talent & hype. If they don't execute according to the plan they have laid out then it's time to ditch.

[@hiksh1256]

I totally agree with you.

[@Nanalyze]

As the presentation discusses, we don't care about science by press release. We listen to what companies tell the SEC. The company is presently trying to scale their technology like everyone else. They're not holding back some big breakthrough for when it's time. No, others are not hoping they can "catch up." We're calling bullshit on these unsubstantiated claims you're making. No, there is no value in hype. At all. Revenue is the only true indicator of product-market fit. Period. Every company developing a quantum computer will say they're in "the lead," whatever that means. And there you go with the "IonQ is the next Tesla" rubbish. Try to present facts that support your argument. And lose the cheerleading because it doesn't help anyone.

[@Nanalyze]

Same response applies. See above.

[@Nanalyze]

Frankly, we don't really care if you listen or not. It's all published for those who are willing to look. Maybe Reddit is more your cup of tea? Off you go then lad, chop chop.

[@Nanalyze]

We're going to go ahead and give you a warning. Either you add value to our audience or you get blocked. Your call mate.

[@Third_eye559]

IonQ is a super long play, I’m aiming to get 1000 shares, there will be a lot of volatility along the way but the advantages of quantum computers for industry cannot be ignored, the money men will see how much their profit margins could grow by implementing quantum computation into their companies day to day runnings

[@Nanalyze]

You seem to imply that $IONQ is the only quantum computing company out there. They're not. Dozens of companies are working on quantum computing including some of the world's biggest technology companies that have been throwing billions on dollars at quantum computing. Because quantum computing is so complex that even the experts can't describe it, investors should look to the one indicator of success that matters - revenues. Thank you for the comment!

[@Third_eye559]

@@Nanalyze it’s miles ahead of the competition as proven. The talent they are employing is world class, Google’s head of quantum computing engineering joined them……also I have money in ionq so I have to stay positive 😂😂

[@Nanalyze]

No, it is not "miles ahead of the competition." That's a vague statement that needs to be quantified. We have no idea what the other several dozen quantum computing companies are up to that aren't public. World class talent is great but it all comes down to execution. You are right you need to stay positive because you have money in the stock :) but don't cheerlead man! Just pay attention to revenues (not related parties). That's your main indicator of progress. Once they have those, we may be joining you as shareholders. If it means joining at a higher price, we're totally cool with that.

[@kiwan5425]

@@Nanalyze Seems like you don't follow closely. IonQ is leading.

[@joepiv]

@@kiwan5425 Take the cheerleading somewhere else or get blocked.

[@marcesivel9909]

Why do you use the price to sales ratio here? Why can we apply the Gordon Growth Model here?

[@joepiv]

Growth companies have revenues, not income. Revenues are most important which is why we use our own simple valuation ratio (www.nanalyze.com/2021/06/simple-valuation-ratio-tech-stocks/). Using a dividend discount model on a growth company makes no sense at all.

[@vaneh6982]

Already provided a huge gain from 9.51 low to 16.92 high this month during these market conditions

[@Nanalyze]

That may be Anvar. We at Nanalyze look at long-term potential though, we're not trying to trade short-term and time the market.

[@Nanalyze]

Also remember those are paper gains. You only capture alpha when you exit a position.

[@edward3342]

I bought 1300 shares @ $4.51

[@johnhoy7572]

This aged very well. 70% down since posting it

[@Nanalyze]

Cheers for the update John. All quantum computing stocks should be avoided until they start to show meaningful revenues (none of this related party stuff). The SPAC mechanism allowed many of these companies to raise capital easily - good for them, not so good for retail investors.

[@Lord_Falcon]

I'd love to invest in QC stocks but I've got no clue which company will come to dominate. It's the kind of tech that will have a clear winner and it could change very quickly. Even if you pick a company that seems to be getting mass adoption and you've seen interviews with industry leaders talking up the tech, it's still entirely possible that a rival could make a breakthrough overnight. Given this I'd much prefer to invest in the usual big tech names like Google, Microsoft and Amazon because I'm sure they're all working on their own tech that will have a good shot at dominating but if not they've got the cash to buy out smaller successful QC companies and of course you get the many other great segments of their business as well.

[@Nanalyze]

There could be multiple winners. The beneficiaries could also stay quiet about their progress - as some experts have suggested might happen - so we won't know who is making progress. That's why for any pure-play stock, revenues are the best proxy for progress. Big tech players do seem likely beneficiaries. Thank you for sharing your thoughts!

[@Wildboy789789]

I have alot of ionq, currently to my detriment if price is to be believed lol... but let me tell you why, on a very basic lvl ionq makes the only vaccume chamber "heatless" quantum chip... while everyone is making quantum computers the size of mattresses, ionqs chip is the size of a thumb, these chips can send more complex signals and are heatless... also, while revenue is a concern for any start up, ionq i believe has 900mil in cash, ive been in scaryer stocks

[@joepiv]

Revenue is a concern for startups, you're right, but not for publicly traded stocks that should already be showing traction. SPACs made it easy for any startup to IPO, and that they did. Quantum computing is so complex that even the experts can't explain it. When that's the case, the average retail investor doesn't stand a chance. Agree there's a lot of potential for QC - and we did like aspects of $IONQ - but we're waiting for meaningful revenues.

[@kaimasters3277]

Thank you this was very insightful as I was looking at the stock because of all the quantum computing hype.

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you very much for that feedback. We'd love to have some skin in the game once a leader emerges. Because everything is so technically complex and opaque, we're using revenues to measure progress for any company. Here's to hoping IonQ makes it happen.

[@rookandpawn]

I learned so much listening to this. Thank you

[@joepiv]

That's what we always like to hear - people learning how to become better investors!

[@SavvyMoneyShow]

I always like a bear view of any stock I hold so I am not suprised

[@Nanalyze]

Good job. Every investor should adopt this attitude.

[@joepiv]

Here's the link at the end of the video: www.nanalyze.com/2019/04/quantum-computing-software/ We're still working the kinks out of the video editing robot we hired on Fiver.

[@omarmunir3596]

Could you make an update video about IONQ?

[@Nanalyze]

We did a recent update on quantum computing stocks here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/aovYlpl9hdGHfdE

[@mikehill1613]

I’ve been listening to you for a few months now, enough to have learned a bit of your philosophy and understand your common sense adherence to underlying financial principles. With the tech market seemingly a whimsical crap shoot particularly if one is relying on a company’s potential, I for one feel calm knowing my money is vested in real companies with valid historical revenue. Your insight into this exciting arena of disruptive technologies is very much appreciated. Thanks so much for all your hard investigative work. I thank you and my heirs should thank you.:)

[@Nanalyze]

You are very welcome Mike. As a Nanalyze Founding member, your contributions have helped build what we have today. Positive feedback assures that we continue down the path we have been. As risk-averse investors, we try to preserve capital, not just increase it. It goes without say that every disruptive tech company has a bull thesis, but we always focus on the bear thesis by looking for red flags. Thanks again for your support.

[@SavvyMoneyShow]

I bought at 7 despac and sold at 20 then 30 I now hold free shares as a long term spec paid for I was wondering with drop wether inshould keep with free shares or add my initial investment back in

[@Nanalyze]

Playing with the house's money on a speculative investment is always a good thing. Capital preservation is as important as capital appreciation.

[@MusicLuv80]

How about now? The stock price is around 5 dollars.

[@Nanalyze]

The point of contention isn't the stock price, it's the fact this firm doesn't have meaningful revenues. It could trade at two cents a share and we wouldn't invest until it has meaningful revenues.

[@MusicLuv80]

@@Nanalyze That is a good point. Thanks for your help.

[@Nanalyze]

You are welcome! Here is our methodology in case you're interested (we're quite risk-averse): www.nanalyze.com/nanalyze-premium-articles/

[@dastanaitzhanov2544]

It’s actually common to treat bookings as revenues in tech.

[@Nanalyze]

No, we've had this conversation a dozen times already. Accounting clearly distinguishes between bookings and revenues for a reason, and so do we.

[@premosounds]

@Nanalyze it's considered accounts receivable.

[@Damian-lz7hb]

What is the difference between IONQ and Arqit Quantum? Which one has better technology?Looks like Arqit has more Revenue, both are Spacs

[@joepiv]

We've thoroughly reviewed both companies: www.nanalyze.com/2021/09/arqit-quantum-stock/ You're comparing apples to oranges. We're avoiding both.

[@xingli1069]

By your valuation metric most biotech stocks are worth 1c? Confused.

[@Nanalyze]

You'll need to explain that comment a bit more, but maybe this will help. We don't buy stocks unless they have meaningful revenues. It's one of the many objective rules in our tech investing methodology that helps reduce risk. Not everyone wants to reduce risk, and that's fine. This decade-long bull has to stop running at some time, and we don't want to be looking for a chair when the music stops.

[@shawncarter2032]

I enjoyed this video and hope you do more. I have invested in IonQ because of the academic pedigree and SPAC hype, but I also have invested in Rigetti (SNII), and certainly like the new Honeywell merger. I should be more choosey and use revenue, but there are not many options for retail investors right now. I really liked your distinction between software and hardware. Personally, I think quantum will eventually branch into large-scale commercial applications, QaaS solutions, and (hopefully) small scale computing options for individuals. I look forward to more analysis from your group as more public options become available and this sector becomes more commercially important.

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you very much for that informative comment Shawn and we're glad you enjoyed the video. Sure, one way to play this is buy betting on all available QC stocks - of which there aren't many right now (and there are definitely a few to avoid like Archer Materials and QUBT). Someone commented that IONQ is building software, and there's certainly a software component to their QCaaS platform. We were more referring to what 1QBit has - a hardware agnostic software platform, or what Microsoft accomplished with their algo (the example in the video). We're also really keen to learn more about the Honeywell merger. We'll definitely publish more research on this space as time goes on so stay tuned.

[@mikehill1613]

Did I miss your patreon link?

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you for the offer of support Mike! At the moment, our business is funded through subscriptions such as the annual one you purchased to become a Founding member of Nanalyze. As our subscribership grows, we have more resources to produce more content. The idea behind our KZbin channel is that we can provide useful information to attract new readers while also providing insights to our subscribers. Note that we also offer courses that are ONLY for Nanalyze Premium subscribers. The next one is coming up soon and will cover Quantigence, our dividend growth investing strategy. Thank you for your support and encouragement!

[@sahasra9]

Worthwhile to give it another shot?

[@Nanalyze]

Not sure what you mean. The stock is extremely overpriced.

[@sahasra9]

@@Nanalyze I meant is it worthwhile your time to analyze this again.

[@Nanalyze]

@@sahasra9 Here you go: kzbin.info/www/bejne/oGTLdHxoj5Z3gtk

[@sahasra9]

@@Nanalyze Thanks. They are reporting this week. Will keep an eye on this.

[@ajpproductions3354]

is still IonQ a bad stock to buy for you ? Seems to show increasing revenue

[@Nanalyze]

Our last piece on quantum computing can be found here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/oGTLdHxoj5Z3gtk

[@kiwan5425]

Bookings and prepayments are spreads over months.

[@Nanalyze]

Yes. And?

[@TheMrSlyxx]

Great stuff. Please do one on Lilium and Joby. EVTOL is getting a lot of buzz.

[@joepiv]

That's not a bad idea. Threw it over the wall to the research team. Thank you for the feedback.

[@TheMrSlyxx]

@@joepiv Lilium has an exceptionally engineered EVTOL jet. There is an order from Net Jet for 150 Lilium jets. That's the latest thing I've heard. Overall, the air taxi thing seems like it could be a winner.

[@joepiv]

@@TheMrSlyxx Here's a piece we did on them. We may look to do an update on the broader VTOL thesis: www.nanalyze.com/2021/08/lilium-stock-electric-jet-aviation/

[@vaneh6982]

i already took 100% on Ionq and Im gonna do it again this year..then we can have talk again why it should be avoided, cool? take note of date this msg was sent

[@Nanalyze]

Thanks for adding no value to the conversation. Want to try again or nah?

[@somenormie]

@@Nanalyze you should probably reply to people more professionally tbh

[@Nanalyze]

@Ransom Bailey You should probably go start your own KZbin channel if you want to give people marching orders and expect them to be followed. One warning and you're getting the boot. Would you like to try again and join us in a constructive conversation that debates the merits of IonQ?

[@johncarter6357]

Awesome Review dude, Sadly, all the retailer care about is what is the next TESLA, AMAZON, Google lol..they don't care about reason or logic..They jump in for the pump and when they get destroyed, they blame other!! lol.

[@Nanalyze]

Thanks for the feedback man. And mainstream financial pundits do nothing to help the situation.

[@topticktom]

still avoiding?

[@Nanalyze]

Yes, still avoiding.

[@jfamo3552]

Well done here

[@Nanalyze]

Cheers for the positive feedback!

[@jfamo3552]

Even a primate like me knows that software will rule the roost. It did for conventional computers why wouldn't it for quantum computers? I guess it could go the other way but I just don't see it. And again this is well done my friend

[@jfamo3552]

@@Nanalyze it's way too early and way too murky. I'm an amateur investor. This business is so murky you might as well be involved in Fusion reactors. It's even more complex really. Yes I'm interested. Yes I own a few shares. But I'm not committed to anything for the obvious.

[@Nanalyze]

Software eats the world as they say. Check out this piece we did on quantum computing software: www.nanalyze.com/2019/04/quantum-computing-software/

[@Nanalyze]

It is early and indeed murky! When the experts can't even tell if quantum computing works, we need to fall back on old reliable - the existence of meaningful revenues.

[@daniellugo4272]

Why We're Avoiding IonQ Stock -> Answer: To scare people and buy cheap haha

[@Nanalyze]

Ah, the old worn-out "you're scaring to buy it cheaper" accusation. So predictable. Almost as bad as the "you're short" accusations. We don't short stocks. We don't "scare people" to buy stocks cheaper. Did you actually watch the video? Or did you just pull that accusation out of your ass after reading the title? Be honest.