Will Democrats Get Their Agenda Passed? l FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity.
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[@jefferyhain1130]

I hate those polls. As a mostly libertarian leaning person, I'd consider myself more liberal, I'm all about personal freedom and individual rights over collectivism. But I'm also a big fan of the constitution, gun rights, and I think the government should spend less money than it collects/prints. I want a leader to tell us we can't afford stuff till we get our shit together. I don't care if we socialize medicine or not, same with military spending, I don't care as long as we start working on our debt while shrinking the role of the federal government. Where does that put me on the scale? I get called a Nazi or Boot licker constantly on dating sites because I believe in open markets and using incentives instead of taxes to fix our infrastructure/climate issues.

[@rogerwilco2]

The whole debt ceiling and government funding issue is just insane in any proper developed country. As an observer from another country, the US senate makes no sense to me. At all. We have a senate as well, but it is proportionally elected, basically by our version of "state representatives".

[@davidwilliams6966]

Do you have a history of states being independent entities?

[@joannawarrens5117]

Sara on the debt ceiling “This is my least favorite topic”😂

[@TheDilettante]

I live in Buffalo, and I'm in upstate New York 😊

[@zch7491]

I think it's amazing that Republicans can say they care about the deficit with a straight face.

[@1993greeksoldier]

I think it's amazing the Republicans can say anything with a straight face

[@IanZainea1990]

How do we send in questions?

[@RicJoJo]

I also agree that immigration is far less likely to be passed than voting rights, just because Dems might actually see self-interested reasons to support the latter (I.e., populations most hurt by "voting integrity" laws passed in red states tend to lean Dem), while providing a path to citizenship for more people doesn't as clearly help them at least in the near term.

[@rogerwilco2]

If you didn't have stupid election systems, like first-past-the-post, electoral college and the senate as a whole, then it would be much easier to actually get laws passed that the majority of the voters support.

[@rogerwilco2]

Liberal is not even the opposite of conservative. That would be progressive. Dutch politics has three main axes: Conservative vs Progressive, Socialist vs Capitalist and Confessional vs Atheistic. This has been a constant over 150 years. We have political parties on all parts of that spectrum. We have a Conservative Christian Socialist Party, but also a Progressive Socialist Party, and a Conservative Atheist Socialist Party. The same on the Capitalist side. It leads to interesting coalitions.

[@patrickw9634]

I’d be curious what the team says, instead of “good or bad” use of polling, but rather what the “best and worst” uses of polling are

[@trickyfish100]

Yay! Nate is on!!!

[@ElementalNimbus]

Not sure why we keep saying we aren't sure if Trump will run again. He is going to run again. We don't live in a universe so kind as to have him not.

[@aristizle8797]

There's a good chance kyrstin sinima is either quitting politics (cashing out) or going to somehow switch teams. AZ democrats are threatening to cut their financial support in her next election, and Moscow Mitch is on record saying that she's "one of ours." I'm not optimistic about the country-improving laws getting passed... But, this might make a lot of people very mad, and I want to see a lot of voters in the 2022 mid term election. We need more political engagement. About the debt ceiling? I'm getting the feel that fewer people than usual are paying attention. The sports ball game main attraction is the infrastructure bill drama. I don't know if republicans have anything to gain, I suspect they'd get blamed again if the shenanigans get to intense.

[@ChrisCapoccia]

polling self-assigned labels is fair, but it's important to know the usefulness of the question. lots of people overassign themselves to independent/moderate, even though their actual voting pattern is highly partisan.

[@Wompwompwomp.ny1]

I prefer the idea of going policy by policy bc I would identify as conservative but Im not 100% either way and ik millions feel the same. As an example, I’m for equal LGBTQ rights and I’m also pro life. I want to reduce immigration and I’m pro universal college education. Im pro 2A and I want climate change to be addressed immediately. But there are rarely pollsters looking for voters like me and there is nobody in Washington who remotely represents my worldview

[@donmountford797]

I think that's because pollsters have found that people (80+%) appear to follow their party idealogy. For example, because Trump has become the face of his party, his supporters and by extension majority of Republicans now follow his beliefs with masks, tariffs, anti military intervention etc where many of these same voters would have followed Bush 43 10 years ago and would have identified as "Compassionate, Conservative", pro military intervention etc. In short people seem to join a "team" and follow their teams lead without critical thinking.

[@1993greeksoldier]

Out of curiosity can you rate these policies in comparison of importance? Like if one party had half those priorities and vice versa which would you say are the high priority topics for you? You don't need to follow how parties currently divide these issues

[@Wompwompwomp.ny1]

@@1993greeksoldier When I vote my biggest concern is tied for trade policy and immigration. I’m pro tariff and I would like to see immigration cut to 100,000 via a point, lottery system. 2. is climate change, the science around it is constantly in flux but there is no denying it. 3. are civil liberties like the 2A, privacy rights which on constantly being eroded. I’m from NYC/Long Island area and I’m very uncomfortable with these vax mandates even tho I’m vaccinated. It feels like an apartheid state with the “Vax sit here, unvax sit there”. 4. Would be universal education. Why we only educate our kids 75% of the way, then saddle them with a ridiculous debt burden just make no sense. I say this as a uni student, studying economics. Make public uni’s free for all Americans and hopefully it drives down private tuition cost as well. 5. Are civil rights. I think the “institutional racism” and all that is bs as a person who is biracial (White/Indian), but there are definitely disparities between groups that are more culturally and economically driven than “system” driven. I honestly don’t vote on abortion bc I’m a male and it doesn’t particularly effect me, but I find it morally wrong for someone to decide who lives and dies. Im not extreme as the Texas bill, but I think the 10-12 week mark is where the cut off should be. I would extend this logic to the death penalty, we shouldn’t decide who lives and dies.

[@Wompwompwomp.ny1]

@@donmountford797 Yes. That’s exactly it. Very few people have a set of policy principles. Instead politics is seen as a football match where you root for your team no matter what. I have zero problem rooting for either side depending on the issue. I voted for Trump in 2020 and watching some of his supporters become “pro war” again after the objectively botched Afghanistan withdrawal is beyond me. It’s like a world can’t exist for many ppl where they and the “opposing team” are in alignment on an issue and instead of working with the opposition, they would sooner just take the opposite view. Kinda like the “Trump comes out for oxygen, and Dems come out anti oxygen” meme

[@rogerwilco2]

Gosh, what if you had proportional representation and could actually vote for and get represented by someone who matches your world view and policy choices.

[@Beef410]

Average Americans don't understand what political terms mean, should just ask support for various policies with language that avoids any current buzzwords, if we want an understanding of American political leaning vs current GOP vs DEM polarization.

[@LordWolven]

The tendency of media outlets to use "left" and "liberal" interchangeably has always been a pet peeve of mine. When media outlets equate far-left with being "very liberal" I'm always stuck wondering if they are doing it for the simplicity of their readers or if they honestly think that the more far-left someone is, the more liberal they are. The DSA, BLM, Squad, and friends are not "very liberal" and in many cases are illiberal. They could be called Marxists, leftists, socialists, or whatever... but they are not liberal.

[@betabenja]

oo -oo I know this one! the answer is no.

[@ghostwolf9499]

It's a Manchin and Sinema vs the Democratic party and as an Arizona voter, I will hold Sinema accountable. I will vote for whoever is most likely to beat her in a primary and if she wins...ill leave it blank in general. I won't vote for a Republican under any circumstances so I can't in good conscience vote for Sinema in 2024. I truly believe the only reason she ran as a Democrat is that she is bi and she knows she can't win a GQP primary.

[@TheKingOfAllHorror]

Let's hope so.

[@lonesaiyan27]

You spelled "not" wrong

[@geraldmeehan8942]

Let's keep in mind the build back better plan is half the cost of the defense budget. This raises the question, if the people aren't worth investing in then why spend double that amount to "defend" them?

[@zacharyroussie4746]

I don’t know where you’ve been Nate, but people here in Rochester will proudly identify as Upstate

[@Dinngg0]

The Democratic factions fighting are like two kids, one wants to go to McDonald's and the other wants to go to Burger King. Mom will take them to only one, and if they don't agree she takes them home where all they have to eat for dinner is a can of tuna.

[@weejockpoopongmcplop]

It's more like two kids, one of whom wants to go to the bookstore and the other to the swimming pool. Mom already promised she'd take them to both. Kid A is insisting they go to the bookstore first because his plan is to throw an almighty tantrum as soon as they leave the bookstore so that Mom takes them straight home instead of going on to the swimming pool. Kid B knows what Kid A has planned and is refusing to leave the house unless Kid A accepts that they go to the swimming pool first. But she's quite happy to go to the bookstore afterwards and it was Dad's plan for them to go to both.

[@VictorAntares]

I wish. But not putting my cheese on it

[@RicJoJo]

This discussion at the start points to the European or classical definition of liberalism vs the modern American definition of liberalism.

[@heyheytaytay]

Short answer: NOPE

[@Phlabberghost]

I want to observe the amusing fact that the salience of a basic premise of American political polling (bipolarity, discreetness, and voting patterns) is deemed, by a panel of people whose jobs depend on the meaningfulness of political polling, to be salient.

[@mingli8790]

The answer is NO.

[@Khazuki_]

No.

[@splashmt99]

Could you please put in time stamps for people who don’t want to listen to the nonsense at the beginning?

[@tylerhackner9731]

I won’t be surprised if they don’t

[@zeitGGeist]

Nope

[@donmountford797]

Democrats have little disagreement on policy, it's more about incremental change vs fundamental change and has more to do with who they have to get votes at home from. AOC only needs Democrats to win but Manchin needs independents and probably some Republican support.

[@joeysweazey]

I think Dems have no choice but do something with marijuana decriminalization and/or legalization in 2022 ahead of the midterms. Biden and Dems need as many successes as possible.

[@jmjfanss]

Not anymore

[@pauladams8573]

Love these podcasts, but can they stop saying "right" ever other sentence? Just because you say "right?" over and over doesn't mean I'm going to agree with you more.

[@IanZainea1990]

I support the tying of the two bills together. And I support the all or nothing approach from the progressives. If moderates and manchin want to stonewall and back track and break their promises. That's on them.

[@TPGReddo]

Can we just acknowledge that the question on political identity just gets it wrong? Socialism is extremely liberal. Liberal is big govt with lots of regulation. Socialism is the same thing.

[@FireEverLiving]

"Liberal" comes from Latin "liber", which means "freedom". Liberalism is an ideology promoting freedom; the opposite of liberalism is authoritarianism, not conservatism. So if you think that socialism is fundamentally authoritarian, then you would not call it liberal. The person who asked the question sounds like a libertarian, who used to just be called "liberals" and are now sometimes called "classical liberals".

[@petrograd4068]

In Sweden, the Liberal Party is a center-right party. We have four parties more left wing on both economic and cultural issues than them.

[@karolakkolo123]

@@FireEverLiving it's not the origin of the word but its current usage that defines it. Modern American liberals are verging on the left authoritarian side. Today's liberals are not true liberals, it's a misnomer. Classic liberals btw are classified as right or left wing libertarian, and these are the true freedom-promoting types. Unlike the authoritarian neoliberals Regarding OP's comment, he probably meant that socialism is extremely leftist. And that is true.

[@rogerwilco2]

No. Liberal has nothing to do with Socialist. It's Progressive vs Conservative. Socialist vs Capitalist, Confessional vs Atheistic. The best opposite of liberal would be illiberal, maybe authoritarian or restrictive. In the Dutch political system, with proportional representation, we have had political parties everywhere on all those axes, for the last 150 years. We have a Conservative Socialist Atheistic Party. It's quite close to Communism.