Xi Jinping fears invading Taiwan as China's economy struggles | Superpowers

"The Chinese are pretty cautious."
China might be militarily able to invade Taiwan in a few years, but Xi remains cautious as his economy is "not doing terribly well," says Michael Binyon, former Moscow correspondent for The Times.
Michael joins host, James Heappey and military intelligence expert Philip Ingram on Superpowers.
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[@ArchieJohnson5h]

Clearly, this year will be worse than the previous one. I lost a lot of money last year due to poor investing decisions that I would not have made if I hadn't been so concerned about my portfolio. I kept investing, but I wasn't sure if I should start saving for a home. In the end, I sold my jobs, and the house required more maintenance than I had anticipated. I don't know how much longer I can go on like this.

[@SasiponPanavaravatn]

It's true. With the assistance of a financial planner, my portfolio was diversified across many markets, resulting in a net profit of over one million dollars from high dividend yield bonds, ETFs, and stocks. It's critical that you have a range of experiences, including with companies that are actively making money.

[@SasiponPanavaravatn]

Leah Foster Alderman. You are most likely to find more info when you look her up

[@ArchieJohnson5h]

Thanks for the help, I’ve left a mail on her website

[@comchadelalora]

Who cares?

[@Wavy_Gravy]

​@@SasiponPanavaravatngold

[@MrHobbesandlocke]

China? You mean West Taiwan?

[@JohnJaneson]

Totally West Taiwan.

[@timloo6191]

​@@JohnJanesonnah.......west roc. So england shall be east ireland or west France. Nobody forget 300 years of french humiliating the english starting from 1066.

[@huas5350]

So that's it! It seems that the Chinese saying that China and Taiwan are one country has basis and rationality

[@greatsky8226]

Not "West Taiwan", but the continent of the Republic of China on the island Taiwan, so as it in the current constitution of the Republic of China set into effect in 1947, as it still ruled China.

[@nicholasmaude6906]

@@timloo6191 The Normans weren't French they were Frankified Vikings.

[@user-ju6ud4go6b]

Isnt that when leaders do actually invade when their economy is on a dive?

[@TheBKnight3]

"Leaders"

[@piccalillipit9211]

China has 5% GDP growth in 2024 - stop believing the BS the media is putting out

[@DavidWalls-sr1pg]

Yes. This is ridiculous. Like China plans on continuing manufacturing and shipping our Christmas decorations and sex toys during the war. This is hopefully propaganda and not genuine delusions.

[@joelturley4847]

Xitler is a chump 😂

[@michaelkurciviez2057]

Only in america

[@user-ze7vb5cx3y]

The failure of Russia and Russia military hardware in Ukraine is a major factor.

[@YLYLMR]

Russia are coming stronger than ever slowly watch

[@user-ze7vb5cx3y]

@@YLYLMR Is that you Vlad? Shouldn't you be kissing Kims ring right now?

[@michaelkurciviez2057]

The failure of American leadership is apparent!

[@pingjuaneza2547]

​@@YLYLMRlol pass me down weapons from the west sent putin walking out on a stretcher from ukraine

[@user-ib9ky2jo9h]

@@YLYLMR hows vovchansk treating you rats at the moment?

[@davidboi4025]

Its easier to say you will inavde then actualy doing it....

[@kevinaschim8475]

And China is more interested in the lands lost from Russia in the late 1800s than they are in Taiwan. Taiwan is a ruse. Btw, Russia just sold China the use of the river that divides North Korea from Russia. And China also unilaterally occupied an island in that same river. Russia weakly acquiesced

[@DavidWalls-sr1pg]

Caring about useless mountains and tundra is the ruse.

[@kevinaschim8475]

Vast areas of undeveloped agricultural land, oil and coal and natural gas. Go on Google maps and look at the borderlands between China and Russia next to the pacific. The China side is intensive agriculture and industrial The Russian side is undeveloped.

[@waheex]

@@DavidWalls-sr1pg hmm tundra with loads of natural resources maybe

[@DavidWalls-sr1pg]

@@waheex natural gas

[@paulsteven4551]

Living space for his chosen people.

[@sugoidessho]

If his economy is struggling then only an idiot would start a war which would invite global condemnation, sanctions and isolation.

[@johngodden4363]

China would benefit greatly if they withheld critical assistance to Russia, in so much that if the Russian federation collapses and fragments, Chinese forces could easily take advantage by seizing half of the Russian landmass - if not more. One thing China lacks is a major fresh water supply - which happens to exist directly north of them in the form of a lake - so large that it contains the largest source of fresh water on the planet. ( that and the untold mineral riches ). Only seven million Russians live on the easternmost part of Russia. Forget Taiwan - that is insignificant in comparison ( only half the size of Tasmania ) with 25 million who could potentially bring down the Chinese regime if the economy is ruined.

[@dark7element]

You're delusional. Nobody can "seize" part of the country with the world's largest nuclear arsenal.

[@Withnail1969]

China's enemy is the US not Russia.

[@shaun1463]

lol anymore fairytales?

[@totzinfo]

what? China lacks of major fresh water supply? China has the 3rd largest and longest river in the world after Nile River and Amazon River, that is why they have the largest hydroelectric dam and most number of hydroelectric dam in the world, but if combine all their rivers from Tibet plateau it is the largest and longest in the world, you must read global geography before you believe your own lies

[@AnotherPointOfView944]

China. Well they practice a lot (Vietnam, India, etc). But never really had a hard war in modern times. So no one really knows what they can or can't do.

[@oneshothunter9877]

As a Chinese friend of mine said: too many "small emperors" aka "one child policy" results. Whiny and spoiled kids.

[@seanlander9321]

China is the only country that has gone to initiate a war against the United Nations. They lost, and created a repugnant legacy of their character.

[@pingjuaneza2547]

They lost a fist fight with the indians somewhere in the LAK lol

[@hughmungus2760]

the again neither has the US.

[@seanlander9321]

@@hughmungus2760 The UN volunteers defeated China.

[@joelturley4847]

Bat Soup Army will never step on the battlefield 😅

[@hughmungus2760]

no but chinese drones will dominate the battlefield. One chinese company makes 70% of the world's drones

[@jengoh3826]

Despite the war rhetoric against Taiwan, I think China is more likely to end up attacking Far East Russia instead. Taiwan was not incorporated into any dynastic empires based in China until Emperor Kangxi's reign. That was only two centuries ago. But Far East Russia has been Chinese territories for quite a few dynasties. The assertion of sovereignty based on historical territory has greater persuasion in the Far East Russia context than the one in Taiwan. The military angle also favors Russia Far East than Taiwan. Attempts by Beijing to annex Taiwan will be met with formidable resistance by the Taiwanese army, whose weapons have undergone significant upgrades during President Tsai In Wen's reign. Moreover, Beijing will not be fighting just the Taiwanese defense force. Contrary to what the Chinese like to tell themselves, the Japanese, the Americans and the Indians will get involved. Remember, 70 percent of the semiconductor chips that the American military purchases are supplied by Taiwan. Americans have a very real interest in preserving Taiwan's independence. Attacking Far East Russia is going to be easier simply due to the fact that the heart of Russia is all the way in Europe. Far East Russia is too distant away from Moscow for Russia to effectively defend it from Chinese invasion. In the meanwhile, the Vladivostok is only a few hours of train ride from Beijing. For the same reason, proximity means that permanent occupation of Far East Russia is going to be infinitely much easier than permanent occupation of Taiwan. In fact, Beijing will not even have a chance to occupy Taiwan, much less holding onto it. The reason is that China simply doesn't have the capacity to transport its troops across the sea to Taiwan. But no sea exists between China and Russia. Geopolitically, everyone in the world will have an interest in Taiwan's security; but if China attacks Russia, I suspect that Europe and America are going to cheer the loudest. You won't hear complaints from Washington DC if Xi betrays Putin. If I were Xi Jin Pin, I would invade Far East Russia now, and then force Putin to withdraw from Ukraine immediately and return all the occupied territories. In exchange for compliance, I will return some part of the Russian Far East, leaving the coastal territories that borders the Pacific Ocean for myself. Those are the most valuable estate anyways and have traditionally been part of dynastic China. If Xi makes such a move, he would win on so many levels. He would be considered a great statesman by the Chinese for restoring the historical territories lost to Russia. At the same time, by forcing Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, he would be creditted with ending the war. His domestic standing would improve dramatically, giving him the political capital he needs to to stay on as the Chinese president. Heck, with China's standing in the world rehabilitated, the Chinese economy might even finally begin to recover.

[@lostlogic6911]

With China just attacked a Philippine military vessel, there are now talks of sanctioning China among the International Community. If the Chinese thought their economy is struggling now, wait till the sanctions kick in.

[@totzinfo]

it is in mainland China's constitution since after Chinese revolution in 1930s that Taiwan is a province of China, but there is no written text in Taiwan constitution that mainland China is part of Taiwan, China was not in economic struggle, the real reason they want to take back Taiwan because it was use by U.S. as a launching pad of U.S. nuclear weapons

[@lostlogic6911]

@@totzinfo "China is not in Economic Struggle". Yeah, ignoring the statistics isn't helping China one bit. And there are no proof that the US has put any Nuclear weapons in Taiwan, it is more plausible to put them inside Japan or the Philippines.

[@dannewth7149]

Will he invade Russia?

[@timsimmons5953]

Not now he is happy to watch and wait. If things go bad in "other places" then he could make his move.

[@angusmckenzie9622]

@ timsimmons "Not now he is happy to watch and w..." Is this your way of calling the long game and patience, procrastination and indecision ?

[@sergeantklein6026]

He has to do something because the party demands it. Chinese dictators have found ways around the party’s policies before, but the pressure is on for this invasion

[@piccalillipit9211]

there is no pressure for an invasion and there wont be one

[@foilhat1138]

Which is partly why he said the US was trying to bait him into attacking Taiwan. This is so he can call any war hawks in his own country US agents.

[@hughmungus2760]

All military industrial complexes are the same. They want to make money, Not actually fight a war. The PLA knows its not Just going to be a war with Taiwan but a full blown WW3 so its in no hurry to start one. BUT- The PLA and associated military industrial complex wants a larger budget so its going to push for more defense spending in order to buy more hardware.

[@totzinfo]

it is in mainland China's constitution since after Chinese revolution in 1930s that Taiwan is a province of China, but there is no written text in Taiwan constitution that mainland China is part of Taiwan, China was not in economic struggle, the real reason they want to take back Taiwan because it was use by U.S. as a launching pad of U.S. nuclear weapons

[@LosRikos]

Love this podcast. This is great i hope its a regular series

[@davidskiff3083]

one of the greatest fears I have is a repeat of the fall of the USSR, where the Russian Federation falls internally and the various regions (with their nuclear weapons) are up for grabs from other nations and/or rogue interests. We would not have the Russian core to negotiate with like we did in the early 90's to prevent a non-state actor (ISIS or Al-Queda) or a barely coherent state (Afghanistan) from getting a nuclear weapon.

[@ldfjlas]

the way xi handled covid is absolute proof that he is a genius. we should try and get him to run the world for us. (looks around suspiciously)

[@Crouchy232323]

Senior official in the Chinese military here, again your info is 100% legit

[@statostheman]

I'm second generation Karelians, to whom our families had to flea from our villages during the ww2. These naive thoughts about that China wouldn't invade Taiwan is ludicrous. Take example the USSR land deal, where the UK was part of it. Which it later made the UK declaring war against Finland. But, the USSR felt threaten by the western powers, especially close to the modern St. Petersburg. Finns thought why they needed so much land from them. The UK pushed the finns to accept the land deal, which made us to say no. After the deal crashed, came these naive thoughts that: "They wouldn't invading us". But remember the USSR economically was feeling the pressure of the 1929 stock market collapse. Their GDP was shrinking and only way they had to push is war. Look at what XI is doing. He is purging his generals, advisers and etc within the military. Is because he is afraid of a coup d'etat, but also removing nay sayer into yay sayer. In that way, his will power the entire China imperialist dreams of owning the world. And even he knows we would loose, mark my words: He'll invade Taiwan. Its only matter of time.

[@TheGrimStoic]

you guys haven't a clue if you associate that level of rationality with despots

[@Mozart69938]

If they behave been watching what is happening in Ukraine closely they would dare to try.

[@robertmartin3753]

China sees the situation of their buddy Russia and is having to second think the strong arm tactics they are accustomed to using ,the world is aware with aware with modern tech especially in observing global situations

[@brentsmithson6172]

Xi can take Russia as an example of the cost that comes with open warfare. Working with Taiwan without the threat of invasion on economic and cultural development throughout the Asian Pacific is much preferable to a costly and drawn-out military conflict. There is nothing that can be settled with open warfare that cannot be settled by profitable economic trade agreements.

[@GarySmithartist]

Not linely

[@ivanexell-uz4mv]

I’ve noticed a theme with Asia at the minute. China, North and South Korea, Japan have all had birth problems at the minute.

[@GarySmithartist]

Not likely. Xi is the adult in the room

[@controlfreak1963]

Chinese debt is by far the largest in the world. I'm not sure how this will be resolved but a war would not be in their best interest. I support the Chinese people but not their government. I'm sure that can be said about most countries.

[@hko2006]

Russia, China, Iran, North Korea

[@ashleighadams1842]

It would just be flat dumb. More than anything else, Taiwan’s geography is BRUTAL. Amphibious invasion, very few beaches to land on, immediately met by a dense urban population (that hates you) and/or mountains? No significant natural resources, but semiconductor factories that are almost certainly destroyed? And what do they win for all that, but a little nationalist self-congratulation. That’s not to mention the diplomatic, political, and economic consequences. A lot of pain for very little payoff. It’s just dumb. And China likes to chest-pound, but they’re pretty prudent when it comes to ACTUAL conflict, especially in regard to Taiwan.

[@seanlander9321]

Um, you do realise that parts of Taiwan are within shouting distance of the Chinese coast?

[@hughmungus2760]

you do realise taiwan has 11 days of fuel right? can't fight a war when the lights go out.

[@ashleighadams1842]

The amount of personnel and equipment needed to do that is so enormous it would be hard to miss…for months in advance. Also, what’s the payoff for China? Seriously? “Rah rah China we did it!”? Taiwan’s wealth is not going to pull through an invasion, so they’re just stuck in a country that hates them with massive diplomatic and trade ramifications internationally. It’s just soooo dumb. China doesn’t have a history of being that careless…not like Putin.

[@womblissimo6666]

Everything you say is 100% right - but Xi's motivation is not based on logic - but desperation to keep CCP in power. Despots often do not make rational decisions.

[@simonrobinson818]

Think you guys overestimate China it’s a country run by one person, Xi. xi has killed or alike all alternative voices. Surrounded by yes man. In such situations anything can happen..

[@user-ry3fi2iw4e]

Winnie is scared in invading taiwan. Surely he will have a bloody nose.😅

[@silvercat28]

In the same way the Argentian dictator didn't invade the Falklands because of a recession?

[@carlosi7026]

Correct.

[@Withnail1969]

Growth in China is about 5% annualised, far higher than in the UK and Europe.

[@silvercat28]

@@Withnail1969 Even the Chinese government doesn't believe it's own statistics. No reason you should.

[@freeman10000]

😅​@@Withnail1969

[@hughmungus2760]

na, china is an industrial nation unlike argentina back then. You'll see a germany 1930s style military buildup with mountains of military hardware being built to prop up the economy first.

[@pedroh3774]

If he does not want war…HE SHOULD RESPECT OTHER COUNTRIES’ TERRITORY‼️. RECOGNIZE AND KEEP TAIWAN FREE‼️🇹🇼🇹🇼🇹🇼🇹🇼

[@fastpistonx]

The fool needs to check out the North Korea Topol-M.

[@mw8498]

Why isn't Xi demanding the return of the Amur-Ussuri Territories Russia took from China in 1858-60?

[@angusmckenzie9622]

@mw "Why isn't Xi demanding the return of the Amur-Us.." Haven't you worked it out, yet ? CCP is evil but won't fight, Russia under Communism is evil but will fight.

[@darrenfenton9280]

Lei's' Real Talk' did comprehensive dive into China , the princelings ,ethics ,internal power struggles ,. A Chinese perspective... on You tube.

[@Birch37]

Is this 2 days old?

[@sammigiancana2926]

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”

[@joelee5239]

What would US and NATO do if China decided to invade part of Russia and Siberia, where they have majority of natural resources...This would significantly strengthen China to the point it could challenge US. Will US help Russia to avoid China becoming stronger, or do nothing?

[@DK-ev9dg]

Keep speculating. Overclever and cunning

[@angusmckenzie9622]

@joelee " What would US and NATO do if China de..." Nothing. A ridiculous scenario, Putin has maintained nuclear retaliation for invasion. Even winnie won't risk that.

[@timrobertson8436]

I feel that this discussion took place about a year or two ago. Have you got anything new to say that we already did not know or that we have not been hearing for quite a long time now. Sounds like the olds rather than then news.

[@seanlander9321]

Parts of Taiwan are within shouting distance of China and they’re not making a move on those islands at all. So why is there so much fuss about something that isn’t happening?

[@frankmcgowan3371]

Unfortunately history has proven many times that going to war takes the populaces attention off of their dire economic situation.

[@lil----lil]

What would Winnie Xitler say? Curious mind wants to know!!

[@DK-ev9dg]

Mind your own business

[@egnoggcross3557]

Super powers?! How about: paper tigers? They are powerful only on paper.😅😂😅😂😅😂

[@isidrodelacalzada8308]

G

[@tariqramadan1521]

I don’t think he will invade

[@piccalillipit9211]

correct this. is western media BS - 5% GDP growth in 2024, hardly struggling.

[@DavidWalls-sr1pg]

Growth of their military power demands it.

[@foilhat1138]

@@DavidWalls-sr1pg Xi recently said that the US was trying to bait them into attacking Taiwan, indicating he has cooled to the idea of an invasion.

[@hughmungus2760]

@@DavidWalls-sr1pg no. china can continue to grow its military power without starting a war. Just a continued military buildup. If anything Time is on china's side in that respect. It can sit back pump out a Royal Navy's worth of ships every 2 years and simply make a fleet so large nobody can challenge it by the 2030s, Right now it's only spending 2% of GDP on defense, it can double that with no real adverse effects. Keep in mind in the 80s china spent something like 8% of GDP on defense because they were scared of war with the USSR and the chinese economy didn't collapse.

[@DavidWalls-sr1pg]

@hughmungus2760 drones have changed the game. Only submarines are needed at sea during combat. They can fire on enemy territory with short-range missiles.

[@BizAutomation4U]

So fomenting the flames of popularism is good for China ? This is such a controversial point to make. I guess if the U.S. stops being the police of the western world, in a vaccum that would be good for China, but it's not that black and white. There's a debate to be had around what happens to the vaccum, and it may not bode well for the anti-populist startategy.

[@petermclelland278]

Just returned from touring China. Yeh! But that Britaiins 'failed economy' looked that good. And! Yeh! I am going to live there, then? Might as well be on the winning side if theres a war?

[@RobertChan-ge1bq]

My answer is no he will convince Taiwan to return to china without any fighting this is china will

[@womblissimo6666]

So the Chinese economy is collapsing in the toilet, they have no freedom, a good portion of China is unofficially well below the poverty line (you can't trust official numbers on anything) , and you think Taiwan (of whom only 5% actually want "reunification") will be convinced to join this farce?? - LOL

[@hughmungus2760]

if china's issue was an ailing economy, doubling down on a military buildup and switching over to a war economy makes more sense than starting a war before the country is ready. When you see china pumping out 10 nuclear submarines and 40 destroyers and 300+ stealth fighters a year then you should start getting worried.

[@aikteongyeap3774]

China just have stop trading with taiwan, taiwan will just yield.

[@piccalillipit9211]

*"as China's economy struggles"* what struggles with the 5% GDP growth in 2024 - yeah Must be TERRIBLE

[@davidboi4025]

Because unless u have been under a rock china has a massive provencial ecnomic number lying they are growing but all ecnomists know that the debt fueld buisnes model that china has is unsustanable as shown with evergrande

[@davidboi4025]

It can grow while under distress as we saw during covid but we aslo know there is rampent lying of ecnomic numbrs by provinces in china they themeslves admitted this, and evergrande showed us that debt fueld growth is unsustanable

[@jaunt3603]

You have to look at the cost to get that growth rate. Ghost cities added to GDP growth.

[@nikolaikrustev1159]

' 5% GDP growth in 2024' -as if.. Just like the Russian inflation is officially 'only 8%' when even a 16% interest rate cannot tame it.

[@Akenfelds1]

And you think an economy is measured by just one number? Wait until you see what happens to that country when the entire Western World shuts Chinese banks out of the global financial system and ceases trade in primary products as well as high-tech manufactured goods. China will turn into Zimbabwe.

[@sammigiancana2926]

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”