"Supply Doesn't Lie" Mark Bouris & Arjun Paliwal

Рет қаралды 15,355

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 43

@rollcageeight5835 Жыл бұрын

In 1980 you could buy a Sydney House for 100 gold ounces. by 2004 it cost you 1,100 ounces. Today it costs you 417 ounces. Sydney house prices have been "crashing" since 2004. When a gold bar outpaces your capital gains, on a property that has repairs and renovations. You aren't winning, you are trying to swim upstream and think you are getting somewhere. We are in a currency devaluation situation, House prices can go up as much as you like, when priced in Hamburgers or Gold ounces it's going backwards at an alarming rate, if you sell your house in 5 years and it buys half as many hamburgers did you really make any money. Good luck with real estate as a retirement strategy, You'd be comfortable for half as much time even though the price was higher on the ticket.

@AB-sv5rf Жыл бұрын

Very good point!

@richardminhle Жыл бұрын

The real estate market, the banking system or the australian currency. Take your pick of what to implode. We can't have everything.

@robguz1007 Жыл бұрын

we can't have everything while the top 5% take all.

@johnny-yi2oi Жыл бұрын

AUD has left the chat.

@geoffmcguiness9871 10 ай бұрын

@@robguz10075% I thought 1 % ..but i see that as a challenge to get there and that's it .its actually only us holding us back .

@markyates688 Жыл бұрын

No reference to other debt people have. No reference to the other factors such as life happens (divorce, upsize, down size room mates, consolidation of house holds) no reference to mortgage stress. No mention to world macro factors that can impact Australia. Brief mention of unemployment but not future contributing factors such as high immigration in a slowing economy. No mention as to the financial health of the renter. Qualified buyers are reducing by the day. All done off the now and not off the future. There is a lot your data doesn't show. Appreciate what you look at and how it is derived. But it is flawed by the bigger picture that is not being captured.

@markyates688 Жыл бұрын

House prices are increasing because no one is moving and low supply. When the supply ticks up for the reasons articulated. How many people are going to be qualified to purchase those houses in comparison to prior years? This will put downward pressure on prices. Let's wait and see

@markyates688 Жыл бұрын

Ah yes, the greater fool theory. Let's wait and see what happens when it ticks up. People have very short memories from 2020 when unemployment went through the roof, renters were getting discounts and people were panicking buying toilet paper.

@mysupplychain5918 Жыл бұрын

@@markyates688 completely agree

@eightfivezerobraxton5509 Жыл бұрын

great insight, rear view mirror data can only tell you about the past & then you infer the future, no one saw covid coming & no one will foresee what happens within the property market

@runswmily Жыл бұрын

I’ve heard economists also say that this July is the highest listings numbers of any July in the last 10 years. I’ve been to about 7 inspections where the owners are selling for less than what they paid for 2 years ago.

@timfudy3147 Жыл бұрын

That's interesting, I am on the Gold Coast and places that I looked at that were asking big prices are still for sale 3 months later. Expectations are high but reality will hopefully balance it out.

@normjones1754 Жыл бұрын

Take a reasonably conservative loan for Sydney of $750,000 at the old rate of 2.13% the yearly repayment = $33,853.88. Using current rates of 6.66% the yearly repayment is now $57,836.42 that's an increase of 70%. This above doesn't include increases in food, electricity, Council rates, School fees Etc Etc. For a lot of people who brought prior to 2008 this shouldn't be a problem as they brought when interest rates were around 6-7%. but for many who have purchased in the last 5 years under lower rates e.g. >4% ( which has the effect of increasing housing cost due to increased powering power).

@philmelb1022 Жыл бұрын

Did people really think interest rates stay at 2 percent Australia's average around 5 to 6 percent. Welcome to the back to normal.

@wytchend Жыл бұрын

Great interview, loved his thoughtful comment about generational wealth. I think most parents have factored in they will need to help their kids buy in some way later down the track.

@ivica351 Жыл бұрын

Once we go 100% digital, we are all in trouble and property will be worth a fraction of what it is now. These world leaders tell us straight out what they are going to do to us. Theres no stopping whats coming. 🚬🙏

@alshami7456 Жыл бұрын

No talk of the fact that both #1 and #2 economies in the world (US & China) are likely going to have severe recessions in the next 12-18months. In this scenario such a large global shock, all this data goes out the window. Unemployment skyrockets, incomes evaporate, and most mortgages become unserviceable. What comes next? A massive crash & even higher interest rates which will be needed to defend the Aussie dollar at a time where central banks will have no choice but to defend their currencies from such a shock.

@mysupplychain5918 Жыл бұрын

Agree

@AM-po5ec Жыл бұрын

I’ve been waiting for this impending recession for years. All the experts were wrong with their predictions and if the CoVid lockdowns and o/s travel restrictions couldn’t bring it on what will?. Experts talked about a mortgage cliff which hasn’t caused a blip on house prices or listings. Honestly, the advent of AI boosted business profits and productivity increased together with massive increases in population growth will probably again save and further boost the Ozzie housing Bubble !

@Rafa-wc3fw Жыл бұрын

Yup, not much new builds, but listings are going up and staying for longer on the market. Looks like low demand and increasing supply on the market. Let's watch the prices go down.

@jamesgeitz6719 Жыл бұрын

I’d question this guys “data” from where I sit I see the economy massively slowing down & people with mortgages really having a tough time! When you add the lack of wage growth, the huge increase in cost of living & mostly doubling of people’s mortgage repayments no amount of data can change the fact that up to 2/3rds of the population are struggling (mortgage holders & renters). The slow down has already begun, people are really starting to reign in spending, especially families. When EVERY financial aspect in your life is increasing you don’t need a “data” firm to tell you that the economy is about to hit the wall! Talk to real people at the coal face of society, we are being fucked over by the government & corporations who claim inflation on rising goods & services while making record profits! Add to this our wonderful banking system that continues to rape mortgage holders to create record profits. A note to you Mark, our economic & political system is fucked, it only favours the few, & they already have the most!

@michaelthomas1993 Жыл бұрын

Arjun the man! Love to see it!

@Leo-vk6qm Жыл бұрын

Well time will tell, I think this guy is engaging in a bit of extrapolation for his data analysis. We're in uncharted territory.

@whatwhat678 Жыл бұрын

the alternative you’re proposing is to not to extrapolate and throw up your hands in the air in defeat ? Surely, all forecasts are highly speculative and totally uncertain, in all cases, anyway. It’s called “life”.

@Leo-vk6qm Жыл бұрын

In statistics we're taught that all statistical models have limits and beyond that it's pure speculation. I've found most buyers agents seem to take the view property always goes up and they hand pick data to support that. He seemed very certain property values won't decline. This cycle still yet to play out, 6 months with no interest rate changes and we'll see where it settles.

@unclealan8897 Жыл бұрын

yeh, grain of salt. remember these 2 make their money from property. in their interest to build confidence and stir up the market. that's not to say there weren't some logical comments. plan for the worst and hope for the best!

@Jonathan-dl4nb Жыл бұрын

So when people tighten their belts and stop spending at their local businesses. What happens to those businesses? Their costs have significantly gone up through increased wages, super, rent, utilities etc....

@kwridgway Жыл бұрын

Great interview.

@eightfivezerobraxton5509 Жыл бұрын

Arjun, You say that the mortgage cliff is "a few 100k at most" according to the data from matin north its 800k +. Also you fail to realise that total supply for Australian property nationally has sat at around 140k for awhile now meaning that the mortgage cliff has potentially big enough numbers to drastically add more supply that would cause prices to decline.

@scottcox8559 Жыл бұрын

Let's import the population of Perth over the next 5 years. That will keep property prices running hot and starve of a recession, there sure to vote us back in.

@gore1089 Жыл бұрын

That will destroy the country. So you'll get back the ones who created the problem.

@AnarchyEnsues Жыл бұрын

100%, Harry Triguboff is rubbing his hands together while he destroys australia.

@eightfivezerobraxton5509 Жыл бұрын

how long will it take before the immigrants decide that its to expensive to live here and send the message back home that its a waste of time coming to australia?

@JJ-mc8lu Жыл бұрын

The rates have only increased and normalised to their 30 year long term averages. This has now stabilised the economy just like the RBA wanted. Repossessions are very low so we all are now in a good place. Hopefully rates stay like this for good now so our kids don't have to put up with the strangling inflation we had which has affected all our finances when rates were low ever again.