Northern Africa, After America || Peter Zeihan

For our next installment in the 'Post-American' series, we're looking at Northern Africa. This region only has a few countries that will turn out alright and a lot that will hurt for some time.
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#africa #egypt #libya #morocco

[@evanburrows1697]

I emailed Peter a picture of a sandcastle my kid built. He replied back telling me it was "definitely going to collapse by the end of the decade".

[@realScottThomas]

Well was he wrong? Pics or it’s not.

[@mightynathaniel5355]

So then, your kid is han chinese?

[@michealknight1304]

You serious?

[@schyllic]

Signs indicate a need for skepticism

[@JackHawkinswrites]

Of course it will collapse,, it is a sand castle, not cement

[@DavidDartsch]

I enjoy your regular apocalypse series explaining how every country in the world will collapse within a decade. It takes the pressure off getting out of bed in the morning.

[@pavolhorvath7850]

Every country? Thats not true. And you have to define, what is a collapse. It may be a good collapse or a bad collapse. It may be a collapse of Armenia, if they cease to exist, but for the regular Armenian Joe everything may stay the same. There is a very popular old joke about a guy who lived 80 years and survived collapses of seven different countries he lived in. Basically he changed country 7x during his lifetime and never even set foot out of Mukachevo.

[@hatimaheddar2411]

That's funny! Human civilization is on the verge of annihilation in the current decade.

[@jb8408]

Lots of places have “collapsed” and it’s easy to think that is the end of things, but life keeps going, and you have to make your way. Get out of bed in the morning and live life! Go on a hike and read a book and don’t spend too much time on social media, and find someone cute and make love. Peace and light.

[@TheLemonYogurt]

When he came out with his opinion on Musk and X, that’s when I realized his takes are completely stupid.

[@thinman8621]

Mr. Zeihan's optimism for some of these countries' futures is heart warming.

[@cathjj840]

And his pessimism for others hopefully, and most likely, better than he foresees. Many of the people are still much closer to subsistance levels, either currently or in the recent past, and would have those survival skills readily to hand.

[@ryelor123]

I think I know why he's saying this stuff. Notice how he's visiting every place one would have on their bucket list? Notice how everything is doom and gloom? I think he has a terminal illness and wants to say what he can before its too late.

[@federationspace5264]

Are you kidding? He is a cia warmonger.

[@zeplyn-r6]

Sometimes I wonder if it just depends on how he's feeling day to day. Picks out anecdotes about raw materials while ignoring/knowing nothing about ethereal factors.

[@federationspace5264]

@@zeplyn-r6 no, he reads cia analyst reports because that's who he is

[@weltsiebenhundert]

Teacher: Work hard and you win! Zeihan: Geography is 90% of your future.....

[@lorizoli]

Winning may or may not include switching geographies. The ability to do so DEFINETLY depends on your knowledge and education.

[@devalapar7878]

Both are true.

[@williamdudleybass9302]

And as Peter Z often says in one form or another, “Ya gotta do the math!” Because “people don’t know how to do math!” LOL

[@JD..........]

Hardware vs. software. One doesn't disprove the other.

[@brianbackes4974]

Israel has poor geography but yet has managed its way out of poverty.

[@dexterbrown9681]

As a Moroccan, yes we've got wheat issues but we are also exporting billions of produce to Europe, last time they ban exports some UK retailers had empty vegetables shelves. We aren't going to starve if we can't import wheat on the international market but we are likely to have worse water shortages if it doesn't rain this year after like 4 years of droughts. Even we have double the dam capacity per capital than either algeria or tunisia, those dams can't generate water without rain. Lack of energy security is the main issue here, we don't have any oil and gas and can't even import cheap energy from the neighbor algeria due to the western sahara issue, the threat of war is always present. Tough renewables could be a solution and exporting it to the UK with the xlinks project might be really helpful.

[@Snowmaners]

Have not had a famine in many years. Too many people for the Earth to support. That is what happens when energy and food is abundant. Grasshoppers.

[@dexterbrown9681]

@@Snowmaners people been claiming there will be famine because of over population for centuries and here we are, it is just plain Malthusianism, people will find away and if things don't happen abruptly the population will slowly diminish to the available resources. Plus a lot of agriculture is unnecessary for food security, it is either to feed livestock or industry ( see ethanol ) famine happens due to logistical issues due to war for example, not a lack of food.

[@carmenmccauley585]

​@@Snowmanersyou heard? We can eat the grasshoppers.!

[@ivancho5854]

Renewables will not be a solution for Morocco. Your only assets are, as far as I'm aware, phosphate and you buy arms from the USA. The phosphate is essential, which is good, but whoever controls the mines will export it, which less good. Algeria will probably either get invaded by France or arms from France, my bet would be invasion. I suspect that Morocco will be ok as it should survive because of phosphate, but it's not worth invading. Your biggest threat is likely that you might not be able to feed yourself, but wars are a solution for population control and if France needs North African colonies again then a war between Algeria and Morocco would reduce Algerian capabilities. I suspect that the world is returning to more Machiavellian state politics.

[@dexterbrown9681]

@@ivancho5854 france would not touch algeria, they've got like 10% of the population who are algerians good luck dealing with that war between algeria and morocco would be mainly about western sahara and a continuation of the sand war in the 60s but it is mainly pointless and both countries don't have the capability to actually invade and reach the other party capital either way and the land is mostly a barren desert and any natural resources in there is not worth the trouble or even the cost of the war. renewable are a good source of income if you could reach northern or europe, desertec was a good project but the german decided to waste resources on solar panels up north and closing their nuclear power plants and be at the mercy of their russian overlords, look at what it lead them. Noor station was at some point the biggest in the world it was a show case for the project. There is high solar radiation in the region but also high wind all year long in some places too, we just lack the capital to build everything.

[@fabwalk8133]

Egyptian here, thanks for making my day.

[@captainalex157]

yeah the writing is on the wall, but you are one of the view that see it. Any plans to handle this situation?

[@devalapar7878]

@@captainalex157 Help from Netherlands. They are the experts in that matter. And there are plants that grow well on salty land like Tulipes ^^ And you can even eat them.

[@laudermarauder]

The final claim that 110 million + Egyptians are going to "more or less die in silence" is beyond ludicrous. Firstly, transportation options have expanded somewhat since Biblical times. Secondly, there's the Suez Canal. Egypt matters and any failure of its ability to "function as a state" (a favorite Zeihan-ism) will have massive implications for the whole Middle East/Mediterranean region and wider world.

[@Jake-gy4bk]

This is just what zeihan does... Doomerism

[@captainalex157]

if the egyptian government cllapses, other powers are simply gonna take over the suez canal. possible a UN mission, so no one gets upset. Maybe Israel will annex it? would give it massive leverage.

[@prateekmahapatra1789]

well he is right egypy's population is too big to keep up given the nile's water supply is nt increasing anyday , so the famine que is a real one , but you know him he is the CEO of extreme predictions .

[@arunjkz]

Peter makes extreme predictions based on assumption placed on top of other assumptions. That results in his end product being really shaky. USA, Russia, Germany and China are not going anywhere. Global trade is not going anywhere. And 110 million Egyptians are definitely not going to starve in silence.

[@imgreen2563]

The prediction is that Egypt will not have control over this anymore because of Turkey and Israel, they will essentially exist as the Turks want them to

[@ACD54]

It isn’t really true that the North African countries don’t have a maritime tradition. It just isn’t a mercantile one. We’ve all heard of the Barbary pirates, who preyed on shipping and raided Europe for slaves for centuries, and they were Berbers from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Even the US Marine Corps’ hymn, as I expect you know talks about the shores of Tripoli, as the young USA’s first foreign expedition was to quell them. North Africa’s maritime tradition is one of lawless attack and that’s worth bearing in mind when considering the future of the region.

[@snugglehogwarts]

Hey Peter! ✨ I follow your work to great delight and would love if us Danes could get your strategic visions! You’ve recently mentioned Sweden in connection with the Nato Alliance, Norway in connection to natural ressources and quickly the whole of Scandinavia - But I’d really appreciate you looking at Denmark - We have the biggest Shipping compant (Mærsk), Medicinal company (Novo Nordisk) and WindMill manufacturer (Vestas) as well as fun cultures such as Højskoler. But yeah, I think your for how our future might look would be immensely valuable! I hope you get to read this comment! All the best, Sebastian from Denmark

[@devalapar7878]

Denmark is a small country. They will work with other Scandinavian countries. So they have probably a bright future.

[@SignalCorps1]

As an 2nd generation Danish American, I’d be interested in this as well. With limited knowledge of the situation, my top concern for Denmark is what the impact of a decline Germany. As strong as Germany has been, they are heading towards a very difficult time that will last decades. Would you happen to know the state of the Danish demographics?

[@shorewall]

I think he will get around to it, but in his books, Peter has said that Denmark and the Netherlands are two European countries that the US will still care about, since they are like gates into Europe, along with the UK.

[@Frosty-cg8xf]

he just recently made a video on you if you havent checked it out yet!

[@damohben5039]

As an Algerian ...I wish to confirme to you that this guy is living in an other reality

[@watershed8685]

A Russian here, I also thought so in 2019. Guess what!😂😭😭😭

[@wihenao]

1:13 "never a maritime power". Peter never heard of Carthage and the Phoenicians😂

[@miamithijs3579]

And then they cut all the trees that made the lebanese cedar almost extinct. Also Tunisia had a wetter climate 2000 years ago.

[@talideon]

The Phoenicians were from the easten Mediterranean, not North Africa. But yeah, I thought of Carthage and Barbary.

[@miamithijs3579]

@@talideon Who do you think founded Carthage and all the other cities the Carthaginians were living? Its the Phoenicians.

[@musical_lolu4811]

All that's ancient history. Anachronistic thinking.

[@K24..]

Peter, do you know that the Algerian national oil company is doing oil exploration internationally? Do you know that Algeria is highly regarded as a reliable oil supplier including during the civil war in the 90s. Do you know that Algerian oil engineers in the 70s where the only “Arabs” engineers to work for the golf states. Please elaborate on your sources and on how you come to your conclusion that Algeria doesn’t have the technical expertise in oil industry?

[@redfono2463]

Thanks a lot... This guy have been to Morocco and Tunisia for hollidays and think that can make analysis of the region. 1:26 never had maritime history.. Go check why US navy was created!!! In 19th century

[@lawrenceralph7481]

Italians invading Libya? That takes effort. They'll pass.

[@Armouropoulos]

The Italians will discuss it forever and do nothing because everytime Italy has a new government (which happens once a month) they have start anew.

[@q45ij54q]

Are they going to field an army of 50 year olds? GLWT.

[@gs7828]

Italy will never invade Libya to conquer it, because our state is based on only using our armed forces for defence purposes. That's because we've rejected Fascism and imperialism. Italy is, however, enhancing its capacity to operate on coastlines, project power and conduct massive landings. In case an emergency arises, Italy will be ready, but it will never colonise Libya nor any other country.

[@Armouropoulos]

@@gs7828 you don't need to invade or colonize a country to exert hegemony over it. You can be subtle and work behind the scenes. There are other sorts of geopolitical action beyond the Russian ogreism .

[@lawrenceralph7481]

@@gs7828 Your Italian "force" is antique, undersized and unable to fulfill mutual defense obligations. That is your fatal flaw. Trump stated atruth 3 years ago in an ugly fashion. The truth is the US is undersized for the new century coordinated challenge of tyrants Russia/China/Iran on two theatres. It will defend the Pacific first. It does not and will not defend two fronts. If it did this alone it will lose both. Our friends in the Pacific see the future clearly and together we hope " su vis pacem parabellum". So you quiet passive rationalizing pacifists better either figure it out or learn the Russian language dialect of serfs. They are coming. Are you going to prepare or eat pesca and capitulate? Up to you, paisano. Buon Fortuna.

[@queensemiramis6083]

There was no discussion about Egypt’s oil and gas production. I felt that this was a significant omission. What will be interesting to know is the economic impact of this on the Egyptian economy and what foreign companies are involved. Please provide a single spiel on Egypt. I’d like to hear your assessment of the Egyptian’s army’s influence in the economy plus a discussion of Egypt’s foreign relations. Thanks much and keep up the great work.

[@ivancho5854]

If the US leave, and it's looking increasingly likely that that is the case, then resources in the Mediterranean are up for grabs. This means that those with military might will rule. In a word Turkey. However they will not be able to exploit it. Hence they will have to get a partner with a NATIONAL oil company like Total or ENI, because an independent company would leave at the first sight of trouble. It would also have to be tolerated by the other power in the Mediterranean, France (with assistance from Italy). This may mean that the Eastern Mediterranean oil and gas assets never get exploited. It will make sense for France to try to impoverish Turkey as much as possible as they are regional rivals.

[@juniorjames7076]

"Egyptian army" ?!?? Anyone, even a tourist, who has spent sometime there know the army is a joke. Its a local mafia at best who extort money from local citizens.

[@crosslink1493]

Any implications for Egypt from Ethiopia's big dam project on the Blue Nile? That could have a very profound effect on the Egyptians seeing how something like 95% of Egyptians live within a short walk of the Nile, especially down south, and depend on it as their water source.

[@dzcav3]

@@ivancho5854 Israel has good relations with Egypt, and the two cooperate on energy in the Mediterranean. Perhaps Israel can help provide some security for Egypt's offshore energy interests.

[@sparklingwaters8990]

most probably egypt will be taken over by russia unfortunately@@ivancho5854

[@kingdiesel68]

Pete I find myself checking in with you every day! Good job brother! I don't agree with everything but I gain insight regardless! Thank you!

[@MonyMGM]

Dude, do you ever stop? Last 5-7 videos and more of yours, you are constantly on the move. Climbing, hiking, sailing! Well, enjoy and keep up the good work!

[@michaellane1316]

PZ could be about to be beheaded, getting a manicure, in a rocket on his way to Mars, buried to his head in the sand with amazon fire ants about to make a meal of him and he would still get in a word.....GO Peter....! So.....Like, Where in The World is Carmen Sandiego......? So here we have....Where in the World is Peter Zeihan......?

[@elfathermex]

the "after America" series was prerecorded and some of his others videos are as well, recorded in just one take and uploaded at different days, he said this himself, he's still always on the move but not as crazy as it seems

[@radiodare]

The air must be thin up there if you think Algeria and France are going to put the boxing gloves back on

[@shafsteryellow]

😂 This guys crazy.

[@abouranous]

As an Algerian i was face palming the whole time, bro knows nothing about the region

[@Alfyannn]

​@@abouranous hahahahaha exactly i am tunisian and i was laughing when he said Algeria and Algerian are pro usa ahahhahaha bro Algeria is pro pro Russia (and Algeria has been a pro Soviet Union ally for years) 🤦🤦🤦

[@terenzo50]

What jolly fun! A great way to begin the day!

[@semihengin6051]

Hi Peter from Turkey. First of all, keep up the good work 👌🏻 always looking forward to seeing your content. Just a little thing to add: Turkey might play a bigger role in Libya, especially with trying to get rid of France - as in west africa. Turkey works already close with Libya on different areas, both states agreed on shared maritime borders in the Mediterranean etc.

[@asdasdasddgdgdfgdg]

Turkey REALLY doesnt like France, or so it seems. 😅

[@hughjass1044]

Yes. I was thinking the same thing.

[@johno3456]

And Turkey and Italy supported the GNA against LNA supported by Wagner, Syria and France, as part of the libya Civil War.

[@captainchaoscow]

Free Kurdistan!

[@warfarenotwarfair5655]

Turkey does not have the logistical capacity to project power. It's a regional land power.

[@mendyboio3917]

Love, love, love your explanations, Peter! Mahalo nui, and hau'oli makahiki hou!!

[@markharvey18]

I reckon Egypts problems will become even less noticed if the Red Sea - Suez Canal shipping route continues to be interupted by problems in the south.

[@hemlock40]

After this installment I'm very curious as to prognostications towards my new permanent country of residence; Portugal. It's an odd mix of positioning with demographic collapse, a loyal EU member, southern Europe economics, proximate to France and north Africa...

[@JoaoOliveira-rk8gv]

We are a vassal to the UK. Whatever the UK feels like it, we follow. This country is no longer independent.

[@cowboybeboop9420]

It`s going to shit. Portugal is a big underachiever. It was never colonized like Eastern Europe. It skipped both World Wars and it never had communism and yet somehow it managed to end up poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries like Czechia, Estonia, Slovenia, etc.

[@topsuperseven7910]

Probably a lot of junkies from North Africa.

[@ThatGuyPotatoes]

He's talked about it before. Portugal likely siding with the Brits and by extension Americans.

[@SignalCorps1]

Did you retire in Portugal? If so, where were you before? The reason I ask is because a buddy of mine did so a couple years ago and loves it. He lives in a small town and I’m going to meet him there this summer to check it out.

[@mazikaty222]

Finally Zeihan talks about Egypt but it’s hungry, sinking and broke and it’s a biblical exit story to get away from it… I’m sorry for asking you to talk about Egypt 😂

[@stephenchappell7512]

That's a pity as the Egyptian people (together with the Palestinians) are amongst the most hospitable I've experienced

[@massivereader]

Love Peter, always so cheerful. Wheat isn't the only problem. In case anyone didn't notice, the price of rice is at a fifteen year high, back up to what it was in 2008. Remember 2008?

[@gojirajenkins8528]

2008 The Summer I witnessed The Dark Knight !!!! YEAH !!!!!!!

[@jb8408]

2008 Obama was elected and Oprah hugged that white guy in the park during his acceptance speech. That was the peak of America. Well, maybe pre-9/11 was the peak. Monica Lewinsky giving the POTUS a BJ in the White House while the Dream Team won by 6,000 pts over Angola was the peak.

[@RobertNikolaGrujic-pk6li]

They had a big maritime history, The Barbary States raided whole Europe, even United States was at war with them.

[@Mcfunface]

"To the shores of Tripoli..." -Marine Corp anthem

[@ruralhobo]

Mentioning Morocco's trade ties to the US and not Europe is silly. France and Spain EACH import six times more from there than the US does. Morocco is not just a major supplier of fruit and vegetables; it is to Europe what Mexico is to the US, except smaller.

[@justinbrannon1978]

A lot of peters theories revolve around basically in the future if you are a friend of the us you will be fine and if you prefer Europe than you’re in for a world of stagnating economies and food shortages as Europe turns into the worlds greatest retirement home. In which Europe will not have enough people to keep the economic engines running at the rate they are today causing them to fall into a world of mediocrity (which spoiler alert they already began. The GDP of the EU hasn’t grown since 2008)

[@devalapar7878]

No, it is not ^^ I don't know why you guys don't understand numbers. Switzerland 8 million people has a GDP of 700 billion dollars. Morocco has a GDP of 170 billion dollars. If it is Europe's Mexico, it is very bad at that. Mexico has 1300 billion dollars in GDP. I know that doesn't feel good if you are a Moroccon. But Morocco has a lot of other things, they can be proud of like their history.

[@dontcare7086]

I'm assuming he takes into consideration that if international trade collapses America is the most valuable ally for them. Spain has no way to protect shipping on a global scale and lots of french allies hate them as described in this video.

[@TheMrgoodmanners]

​@@justinbrannon1978 alot of his theories revolve around the US receding from the global sphere which couldnt be further from the present reality

[@christopheralsup3974]

Also Morocco is America's oldest friend.@@devalapar7878

[@georgeeverette3912]

You are wrong about Libya. Turkey is already in there in a big way. I don't think they are leaving.

[@georgeaird4637]

The lack of tree point seems a bit pointless when we aren’t making boats out of wood anymore. Also Carthage which is now in modern times Tunisia was The Roman Republicans largest naval rival.

[@houseplant1016]

1:18: the barbary pirates that wreaked havoc for centuries, that even the USA came and declared war on them.

[@themidwestrequest-xu9rm]

Don't mess with our boats

[@Tvalfager]

Sweden pitched in too

[@Armouropoulos]

And Carthage!

[@monrow1961]

@@ArmouropoulosAnd the Vandals

[@warrenroby6907]

Good point against what Peter said about naval power.

[@joshuamcclure4049]

I wonder what Peter's perspective is on the Ethiopian dam projects that are ongoing and how that fits into Egypt's future.

[@rubine2000]

Way too pessimistic. Algeria/Tunisia/Morocco all have a dense tissue of modern motorways and railways and an educated population. There is semi-democracy and no ethnic or religious divisions. I don't foresee any problems there to the opposite it will be a high growth area in the next 20 years in manufacturing and agriculture.

[@musical_lolu4811]

I'm pessimistic. Their proximity to Europe and the Middle East is a perennial problem.

[@MarkPillow]

Any thoughts on what happens if Egypt begins to administer eastern Libya and taps the Nubian Aquifer to irrigate the furtil fields in Western Egypt, the region Morsi was from?.

[@devalapar7878]

I mean how long would that last? Also does Egypt have that capability? If they did that, wouldn't they lose all their allies?

[@MarkPillow]

@@devalapar7878 I've seen estimates that it would constitute a 900yr supply and if used for irrigation there would be some recharging.

[@celdur4635]

Someone forgot about the Barbary Pirates. Also South America can produce 100x more food than it does now, if there is demand for it. And if Egypt can pay for it we'll deliver.

[@Ashour.H]

We might really need you guys...

[@imgreen2563]

Yeah, Barbary pirates existed because the European powers thought the North Africans were much stronger than they actually were. A North African country trying to do that in France or Italy today would be completely destroyed in 5 minutes.

[@andreravenna4435]

Could you do a post American Scandinavia?

[@roberthoward9500]

More nudity for everyone.

[@Tvalfager]

+1

[@devalapar7878]

He already did!

[@_ac_7649]

it will no longer be scandinavian. but that is their own fault

[@ZMB-on5ub]

Wish i was on a trail like that right now.

[@sapphire9145]

Love your work, can you please do Cyprus 🇨🇾

[@blackberry3209]

No reason to because it doesn't matter

[@BountyFlamor]

@@blackberry3209 Cyprus probably has oil/gas fields under the sea

[@juniorjames7076]

Cyprus is returning to Turkey soon. Completely.

[@quertianmotto]

Cyprus is Greek

[@devalapar7878]

@@quertianmotto You can say that, but half of Cyprus is populated by Turks and half by Greeks. Additionaly Cyprus isn't part of Greece, it is an independent country at least on paper. But Turks will never return the north without a real security guarantee and other favors like a gas deal or so. Don't forget! Turks had two wars with Greeks in the last century. Both were started by Greeks and in both cases they lost. I don't understand how a country that has lost a war can make demands especially if they started the war.

[@thomasdevine867]

Egypt is a doomed state. They are already losing unsustainable amounts of farmland in the Nile Delta both from the decreased flow of the Nile and the reduction of silt deposits. The flow of the river protects the delta from being washed away. And the Aswan Dam, just as it is, reduces the flow of the Nile in dozens of ways. With the Aswan dam blocking the silt the Nile once carried to the Nile Delta, the lost soils of the delta are never replaced. With climate change and the fading of the American world order, this pattern spells the collapse of Egypt.

[@rubine2000]

Data disagrees with you. Food production in Egypt is growing rxtremwly fast at double digit rate every year for the past few decades .don't underestimate human ingenuity and invention.

[@thomasdevine867]

@rubine2000 The ability to irrigate the desert helps massively. But the Aswan dam has a massive silt problem, which fouls up irrigation. Also, fertilizers are needed to make the desert bloom. I want the Egyptians to crack the code, but they've a history of being more interested in fighting each other than rallying together to help themselves.

[@hommedesvoyages7296]

With all due respect, Mr. Peter is mistaken with regards to the analysis on Egypt. The whole northwestern coast of Egypt was the breadbasket of the Roman Empire and currently this region is not being used for any agricultural purpose that is worth mentioning. Egypt has the capacity to feed a population of up to about 140 million if all these regions as well as others by several oases are used for grain agriculture and cultivation. Also Egypt has the biggest land depression on the planet close to the Mediterranean Sea which can offset up to 0.5 m rise in sea levels. This project had been considered many decades ago for power generation. The real problem with Egypt is mismanagement, corruption and lack of proper planning.

[@Drippydogetter]

Peter lookin fly

[@AMERICANPATROIT101-y7r]

Nope. Needs a haircut

[@AMERICANPATROIT101-y7r]

And sunglasses made for men

[@Drippydogetter]

@@AMERICANPATROIT101-y7r they’re called hater blockers cuz he cant see you

[@AMERICANPATROIT101-y7r]

@@Drippydogetter ez ❄️ We are ALL allowed our individual opinion You sound like a chronic victim, it’s almost like your an American African or something

[@zadniks]

Another feel good story brought to you by Peter Zeihan

[@SaltyMeatHook]

Egypt is in trouble. But nowhere near to the extent Peter says. He left a lot of stuff out when it comes to their resources, innovation, and economy. Oil, fish farming, irrigation, just to name a few.

[@georgespragens7589]

Well, that was happy and uplifting!!

[@chickensdontsurf]

Thank you so much for doing this channel! I love all of your videos and have learned so much. Big hugs to you!!

[@djgsc9870]

This has been a great series

[@Dtansing1]

Hi Peter from Australia. Good to see your back is feeling great again. Keep coming with the content. Cheers and happy new year. Damo

[@omamale69]

You seem not to be paying attention to his videos. Post-American serie was prerecorded

[@frankgibson6484]

Mr. Zeihan has been accurate so far. He does something only a few of us do. He uses his frontal lobe!

[@Cavebabyberserker]

😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@LONE_WOLF_GANG]

Morocco actually exports mad quantities of fruit and produce to Europe. Also, we had to ration the food in 1945 ( also known as the year of famine) because The Europeans were starving after WW2. So, you're welcome Europe, we made sure you were fed ( mainly the french) at our expense.

[@Fallenfaefolk]

Morocco's historically been a friend to anyone who wants it, once y'all got over your barbary phase. the 1800's were rough but you really turned it around in the 1900's and now hold the highest spot as my most respected Arab state (as a European, and American citizen.)

[@standup_jokes]

Peter, I just love your videos. So much information in so little time and I understand everything because you explain it so beautifully. Thanks

[@marshmallowmonster7731]

Something tells me that Peter has entire room devoted to storing all those sunglasses.

[@tarrrek]

Talking about Morocco and Algeria without mentionning the western Sahara issue… Sadly i found the content in this video very unaccurate or simply wrong

[@musuku15]

Libya is a failed state due to US foreign policy, I don't believe the regional instability would have the same effect if things were dealt with differently! Unfortunately, US foreign policy, or the people involved haven't learned a thing from their previous interventions!

[@stafer3]

The civil war there started BEFORE American intervention. So still a failed state.

[@JackHawkinswrites]

The living conditions in Libya is not the responsibility of the US. Colonel Q was killed by Libyans, I saw the video. It was not an American that gutted the Libyan dictator, it was one of his own

[@protorhinocerator142]

I see your back is feeling better.

[@davidbain8921]

@davidbain8921 0 seconds ago Peter, Thanks for the info & hiking scenery. What is your take on 1) the Ethiopian dam on the Nile and 2) Egypt’s proposal to flood a massive basin with water from the Med?

[@michellegutierrez2119]

Peter Zeihan,Thank you for sharing 🎉 Happy New Years to you……🙏for all of humanity.

[@daniellarson3068]

It's nice to see that the back strain has alleviated. Colorado looks nice any time of the year. Crazy Comment - Egypt needs a big project using nuclear or maybe solar power to desalinate water from the Mediterranean and pump it onto their hungry land. Then they can grow anything in that sunny climate. Sure, it'll cost some money but it would give food independence and prevent the future starvation predicted by Peter.

[@Ericwvb2]

The problem is cost. It’s much cheaper to import food from other areas of the globe not experiencing water shortages.

[@CMVBrielman]

1:18 Other than Carthage and the Barbary states, two of humanity’s most famous maritime civilizations…

[@devalapar7878]

Carthage is mainly Algeria. And have you never wondered why North Africans were famous pirates like Barbarossa?

[@JcoleMc]

@@devalapar7878 Because they were poor ? and couldn't produce any domestic product worth selling ?

[@jobloluther]

@@devalapar7878 Carthage is mainly Tunisia wtf

[@devalapar7878]

@@jobloluther You are talking about their big city. But the land included algeria too. İt's where the rivers are and Libya was the land that separated carthage from Egypt. And then you have also a ton of vassal states which would be also part of the empire.

[@jobloluther]

The core was Tunisia @@devalapar7878

[@Odin029]

As a history buff, I can only imagine a Roman Senator from the 1st century AD or BC reacting to someone telling them that in the future Egypt is going to have to import wheat. After they finished laughing they'd probably ask for a sip of whatever it was that guy was drinking.

[@devalapar7878]

Weren't Romans aware of climate?

[@celdur4635]

Well, if you tell that senator that Egypt has 100m+ population and growing, then they will stop laughing.

[@nathanseper8738]

@@celdur4635 It would be shocking for the Roman senator to hear that some countries have more people than the entire Roman Empire.

[@AaronD-q6t]

The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the world's largest known fossil water aquifer system. It is located underground in the Eastern end of the Sahara desert and spans the political boundaries of four countries in north-eastern Africa. The significance of the NSAS as a potential water resource for future development programs in these countries is large.

[@jam1087]

North Africa has at least at one time had a maritime tradition, Barbary Pirates

[@samlair3342]

Peter, I suggest shedding light on Russia’s desire to bring Uzbekistan to heel - who is providing sanctuary to large numbers of Russians who fled Russia. One such Russian in Uzbekistan is ‘Konstantin’, who posts a daily and delightful KZbin video called “Inside Russia” that comments on Russian affairs.

[@brendanalfo411]

I'd like to see an America, post America talk.

[@chrpap7042]

Am I the only one that thinks that a post USA world can really find a way to just continue trading just in a more complicated way like it has done for thousands of years?

[@jeremybrunette598]

I'm a nobody so take what I say with a grain of salt. Of course the world will continue to trade. Ziehan never says that it won't. Ziehan just says this will be the end of globalization. So rather than countries being able to specialize, each country will need to become more self sufficient. Since we've lived in a globalized world for so long with the US Navy protecting trade, many countries (especially countries that industrialized after World War II) have had population booms without the growth of the internal infrastructure to support the population if free trade is taken away.

[@bitbucketcynic]

Of course they'll find a way, but that way is going to look a lot more like the 19th century than the late 20th.

[@devalapar7878]

We did trade in the past, but it was only a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of what we produced. Trade in the past was very difficult. Why do you think we colonized the world? To trade with them! There was no trade between competing entities. And in feudalism the competition was between cities. So you had very little trade between them. Oh my god, and then we had a ton of measurements and currencies. Different laws. It was a big mess.

[@JcoleMc]

@@devalapar7878 That was in Europe not the rest of the world . For much of history Europeans were the backwards ones and isolated from the rest of the world , but trade between Africa and Asia on the level of globalization has existed for a very long time

[@chrpap7042]

@@jeremybrunette598 but in the case of Egypt its like he assumes that the Egyptians will just sit idle and nothing just waiting to die from hunger. That is not how the world works. If they did they wouldn't be a civilazation that endured for 6000 years.

[@reuven471]

The amazing thing is that even despite the terrible situation of the Arab countries, they do not manage to overcome their sick hatred of the Jews and Israel. The Egyptians, for example, despite over 40 years of peace with Israel, have almost no economic ties with Israel. Israel, a developed and modern country, does not need the Egyptians, but it has knowledge and technology about water that can help the Egyptians. But like all Muslims, they would rather die than trade with Israel. So their fate is truly sealed.

[@captainalex157]

yeah they are very tribalistic, interesting that they never developed beyond that.

[@LewisPulsipher]

Organized religion causes more harm than virtually anything else in the world.

[@Tyrgalon]

MAYBE it has something to do with how israel was created by ethnically cleansing 750 thousand palestinians, waging war against its neighbours and keeping up those activities for the last 70 years.

[@Mogoba-qj5ih]

Why would they want ties with the last European colony in the middle east. Israelis are invader and will be driven back to europe.

[@anasmouden5416]

​@@captainalex157 look how is talking

[@mikemusic10]

Can't they ship rice to these countries if wheat isn't an option?

[@Aiwon]

Libya's GDP per capita was 5 times higher than its neighbors before NATO intervention and Ghadafi's removal from power. It would be dishonest to not mention we intentionally drove them into their current predicament for the sake of our own interest.

[@themidwestrequest-xu9rm]

Thanks Hillary "we came we saw he died lmao"

[@nuam9906]

There is a reason why the saying 'politics is the continuation of war' is true. People have been following their interesets since human beings came to live on earth. Some justify it with religion, some with other things. Gaddafi claimed he was a muslim while being best buddies with soviet communists who were beheading muslims in Chechenya. West let go of religion and uses politics and democracy. Human beings are playing the same games we have always played.

[@crosslink1493]

Is that 'per capita GDP' with or without the oil revenue that the average Lybian probably didn't get much benefit from?

[@xolotl92]

Peter, what about Egypts plan to build a huge lake in one of their valleys? They want to dig a canal to the Mediterranean sea and have it drain into a valley, cooling the area and brining rain more often with the hopes of making land that can grow crops.

[@martinfitzsimons5884]

Would like to hear your take on the Morocco/Western Sahara issue if you ever get time.

[@imadabbadi9665]

you mean the Morocco / Algeria issue ?

[@martinfitzsimons5884]

Algeria, from my understanding has ceased assisting western sahara militarily in its struggle for independence. And Morocco I think controls much of WS territory including its valuable phosphate mines. My interest was more on that angle. But there are definitely a tonne of moving parts in that region and I would absolutely be up for learning more about Morocco/Algerian current state of affairs too 👍

[@imadabbadi9665]

@@martinfitzsimons5884 Things are often much simpler than we think : Algeria wants to (1) be the dominant power in North Africa, and (2) get access to the Atlantic ocean. The creation of the SADR / WS issue is in line with that. Algeria is still hosting the Polisario separatists in Tindouf, who have just recently fired rockets towards a Moroccan city.

[@tonycorlioni9276]

There's Nothing called western Sahara only on the maps😂however the only issue here is with Morocco and Algeria and whole world knows about it. Algeria will never get to the Atlantic and that's a fact 💯

[@devalapar7878]

He already talked about this.

[@danijelrijavec7533]

what do you think that will happened in the balkans in post usa world

[@Treebeard1671]

Such a horrific prediction about what will happen to the people of Egypt. What can be done? Shouldn’t we care? The nonchalant way we accept the suffering and death of millions of people is so depressing. Peter is very good about pointing out potential problems… and it’s important to know what the problems are… but what are we going to do about it? Surely there is something that can be done.

[@atlantic3695]

Just remember them and keep them in our thoughts 😢

[@abdurakhmonjamoliddinov]

Hi Peter Zeihan The videos are amazing. Can you talk about Central Asia after America.

[@sdr24]

Might as well add another significant trouble to Egypt’s list. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Ethiopia is planning to dam the Nile river in its own territory. This would be a huge benefit for Ethiopia - generating such a large amount of hydroelectric power it could actually bring electricity to most of the country that currently doesn’t have any. Problem for Egypt is that even a 2% flow reduction during the years its takes for the reservoir to fill up could destroy up to 200,000 acres of farmland. Heated negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia are of course underway right now. But the situation is bad enough that Egypt vs Ethiopian could very easily be the next war that breaks out.

[@mudra5114]

The Egyptians, Sudanese and Ethiopians need to come upon some form of water sharing agreement, like what India and Pakistan have.

[@wakes_inc]

Dude, where have you been. The GERD is already done (95% of concrete has already been poured) and the filling is complete. It didn't destroy Egypt at all, that was fear mongering.

[@sdr24]

@@wakes_inc the dam construction is complete - filling it is not. Construction finished in 2020. Egypt has been demanding a full period of ten to twenty years and is currently demanding 12. Ethiopia is saying they plan to do it in 7 years. Keep in mind this reservoir is going to be half the size of Rhode Island. Ethiopia has gone ahead and done some intensive fill periods without Egyptian agreement. But they times these fill periods to coincide with fortunate monsoon rain events and one of the years in question was unusually wet. So when you say Egypt didn’t get harmed by it - that’s because the weather was favorable. But what if the weather isn’t favorable in future?

[@DSNCB919]

The GERD is pretty much done and Ethiopia is stabilizing and considering pushing to the sea. The Damn and if Ethiopia gains its own ports 10 15 years time egypt woulnt have a chance

[@sdr24]

@@DSNCB919 Somalia’s northern province of Somaliland just made a deal with Ethiopia to allow Ethiopia to use its port of Berbera on the Red Sea. Somalia is angry about it and rejecting it - but the central government has little power over the federal government of Somaliland and is crippled by its ongoing fights with Islamists in the south. Which leaves Somaliland - for the moment - able to act like its own separate country. And Ethiopia gets port access for the time being.

[@JoeMisseri]

Wow, after that last back injury from previous incline... the ending despair is uncanny🎭

[@MrSylvandragon]

if Brazil can successfully create their "tropic wheat" in time, i wonder how much thatd mean for the numerous countries in the tropics... assuming the cultivars could spread fast enough

[@nikdim8747]

Thanks for your insight Peter. Could you possibly make a video what would also in part or in full be about Greece and its geopolitical future?

[@hasankilic9825]

Lol. Who the fk is greece that anyone will be interested to make a video for?

[@nikdim8747]

You really need to get a life @@hasankilic9825

[@chrismeyers5238]

Damn it man. Feel bad for the Egyptians. Not so much for Libya. Great reporting Sr.

[@A.Severan]

Why not for Libya?

[@Shadow-gd4zl]

@@A.Severan ... egypt will starve with tens of milllions , whilst lybia will have western support in oil and industry big difference

[@johnnyel]

It's not exactly impossible to dike the Nile to minimize sea intrusion, right? Don't discount ingenuity. When insurance companies refuse to insure beachfront properties they can start worrying.

[@ethanchurch4661]

Morocco! Our first friends. I hope things go well for them.

[@jobloluther]

thx mate

[@Arthur-he2lj]

Peter, we all love your educational talks teaching us more about how geography and politics, etc, influence our present world, but, even though I have a fairly general picture in my mind of most of the regions you deal with, I think a map insert of the region would be helpful in illuminating your references. Maybe a thumbnail edited in later before streaming? You have done this before with talks about the Ukraine/Russia conflict very successfully. Speaking about talks, have you ever done a TED talk? I've seen many of your interviews (Joe R, etc) but never come across a TED talk? You are an educator par excellence, and could do a lot to changing the mind-set and belief system of many - all for the betterment of us as a civilized world society. We need open-minded intelligence, maturity and honesty now more than ever. Please help! Thank you.

[@platoplombo15]

Love the passive voice on Libya and Egypt. Almost as good as your characterization of US hyperinflation as just something that happens, like the weather. States sometimes just 'fail', out of the blue.

[@festekj]

His omissions about Libya says a lot more about him. He likely received funding perhaps even a salary from a 3 letter agency.

[@darthkek1953]

@@festekj Peter is literally the CIA's mouthpiece. He's worth listening to for their current take on things.

[@papasmurf9146]

"Sometimes states just fail, out of the blue", but I don't think that's what happened to Libya.

[@thomasdevine867]

Most of you guys define the USA as a failed state no matter what we do. A reduction of American influence will have real effects on the world. Just because none of these effects benefit your world view isn't an excuse to shoot the messenger. Lybia is an artificial construct with several competing ethno-nations in one legal nation. The liberation of the peoples of Lybia would automatically be the destruction of the present Lybian state.

[@festekj]

@@papasmurf9146 he was being sarcastic about Libya failure. His omission about NATO turning Libya into a failed state says a lot about Peter Zeihan

[@Lords1997]

Video on Puerto Rico please!

[@markkeeler9995]

Peter, your a cheerful chap, aren't you. A laugh a minute. 😂

[@elcastorgrande]

He's a regular Cheerful Charlie.

[@FredLaSor]

What's Tunisia -- chopped liver? Or did I miss your comment on that?

[@jean-martinvonsiebenthal2836]

To be accurate, the Carthaginian and Barbary Corsairs among others would beg to differ on North Africa never hosting a Maritime power.

[@propman4146]

You beat me to this point. Well done

[@Erik_Arnqvist]

The point is still made that the area isn’t and wasn’t big on forests. Yea I know about green Sahara but that was before this era. And yes places like Egypt two millennia ago was greener than now but not enough for the region to be self sufficient in wood. You see this especially when North African fleets became smaller during times of reduced wood import.

[@captainalex157]

Barbary Corsairs were more of an annoyance tho, not a real threat to european navies.

[@devalapar7878]

Read for whom they worked! Read where the wood came from! Read where the ships were mainly built! It will surprise you! And don't just pick one timeframe. Start with Romans until today.

[@shorewall]

Pirates aren't a maritime power. They prey on weakness and run from danger.

[@apc9714]

Can't Italy step in Algeria and manage their oil fields? I know cooperation has deepened after Italy started replacing Russian Gas with Algerian

[@a_blaze223]

Not to mention Ethiopia is damming the Blue Nile in the Ethiopian Highlands. This will effectively cut off about half of the Nile River’s flow to the Nile Delta.

[@mjpfl8131]

Just checked the comparative armies of Egypt and Ethiopia. Egypt ranks 14 of 145 and Ethiopia ranks 49 of 145. Don't know what allies either could count on, but any country with their food production jeopardized this badly might be thinking about doing something about it. Dams are hard to blow up or so I've read, but not impossible.

[@gs7828]

@@mjpfl8131 Dams are some of the easiest targets to hit, especially in the Pakistani/Indian dispute. Cutting water off to another country is very risky as a result.

[@mjpfl8131]

Thanks for info. Cutting off water would be a risky tactic for sure. @@gs7828

[@Zeyede_Seyum]

Egypt should control its population. 100 million in the middle of a desert 🌵

[@mut8inG]

Thank you.

[@jounihiltunen3729]

Apparently Carthaginians were really not that into sailing?

[@DieFlabbergast]

Har! Nor the much later Barbary Pirates, eh?

[@monrow1961]

@@DieFlabbergastVandals also

[@SkepticalBrother]

You have a nice day too, Zeihan.

[@Gwanzan3325]

Damn, that got dark at the end. I guess the Egyptian Army/gov should be working on grain fields instead of the New Administrative Capital.

[@none3763]

lmao. they know what's coming, that's why they're building their own elite city. they have no intention of being part of the doomed 50%.

[@zill0678]

they should have started that in 2000. too late now

[@khaliddaoud]

What about Sudan, would love to hear your thoughts about this. I understand that Sudan is not technically is north Africa but it's destiny is intertwined with the region

[@TheMrgoodmanners]

How is sudans destiny intertwined with north Africa lol?

[@crosslink1493]

@@TheMrgoodmanners The Nile River. The Blue Nile and White Nile combine in Khartoum before flowing into Egypt and northward to the Mediterranean Sea. If there's insufficient water in the Nile then Egypt collapses. That might happen as Ethiopia is building a huge dam to capture Blue Nile water and Ethiopia/Sudan/Egypt talks about water rights were not going well last time I heard anything about it (6 months ago?)

[@슬라바우크라이나헤로]

It's already starving 🗿

[@HICHAM-FINANCIER]

Thank you peter for this video, I think the only country in North africa capable of doing something interesting in the future is Morocco with all the challenges you mentioned : It's the most stable country in the region, they developped à good industrial policy, they are Well located and have great relations with Europe, UK and USA not to mention China and Gulf states. Tunisia could be much better but they need to elect à capable leadership!

[@Verbindungs]

Morocco has a potential conflict with a European country in possession of two colonies in its territory. Colonies that, as Algeria, are explicitly out of NATO protection.

[@HICHAM-FINANCIER]

@@Verbindungs Morocco will not enter in conflict with Spain, they are member of NATO so if Morocco launch an Attack on a Nato Member you know what happen next. Moreover Europe is the biggest trade partner of Morocco, I don't see why Morocco will commit a suicide attack

[@슬라바우크라이나헤로]

​@@Verbindungs Morocco is not that dumb man. They aren't willingly going to invade Spain bruh

[@HICHAM-FINANCIER]

@@Verbindungs Morocco is working on developping in every domain and to succeed on it, the kingdom need peace not to mention that the first cause that mobilize the country is sahara conflict. Don't forget also that the 2 country with portugal will host the 2030 world cup so... Ceuta and mellilia are no interest for Morocco but the western sahara is a strategic issue (it's very windy and sunny, the coast is full of fish, it's rich in minerals maybe oil and gas...

[@SIlverbullet108]

Not sure about that. Morocco has been pissing a lot of people in the region in recent years. There was that blackmail over migrants with Spain, that spat about espionage on several European countries, the continued grudge with Algeria over West Sahara, etc. I don't think it's very wise from Morocco, especially if the American are losing interesting in the wider world and become much more isolationist.

[@lindawightman1007]

ty

[@mayankkumar6255]

North Africa poses a threat to Europe due to its migration and inability to adjust in European countries .

[@themidwestrequest-xu9rm]

I think you mean EU poses a threat to Europe lol who is allowing and facilitating the immigration Northern Africa or progressive politicians in the EU

[@darthkek1953]

Saying Africa poses a threat to Europe is like saying asteroids are a threat to dinosaurs. I mean, yes, BUT THERE IS NOTHING YOU CAN DO ABOUT IT.

[@d.s.8227]

Europeans are done with mass migration as can be seen in current political shifts. I expect migration from certain areas to Europe to be shut down completely, with help of the military if necessary.

[@mayankkumar6255]

@@d.s.8227 European union need to be dismantled . Countries should be allowed to make sovereign decision .

[@Visherex]

​@@mayankkumar6255where you from?

[@j.l.boekestein3201]

Interesting, I think this is the first time you mention potential climage change effects in your talks (it's no critisism, it's just something which interests me a Duchtman :) ). I wonder if Egypt is going to down to Sudan to get to Ethiopia to control the source of the Nile the coming few decades. If so, I don't think the West will be really bothered. Better an Egypt focussing on, and trying to survice by, war than millions of Egyptian refugees trying to get into Europe.

[@is-haqal-sabiriy2528]

I’m almost in awe on how shallow these analyses. But maybe thats how Americans think

[@vk7646]

Do Baltic countries next!

[@ralphlorenz4260]

So basically Adam Smith brought a stay of execution, but Thomas Malthus gets you in the end

[@chuckcurtis]

Insightful

[@alex_tahiti]

Regarding Egypt there is also the futur effect of the dam built by ethiopia which will reduce Nile flow to fill the dam's reservoir. It is estimated to reduce it by 25% for 5 years which will impact directly Egypt

[@manliomazzon]

A couple of respectful corrections if I may. 1) In Libya, Turkey may end up playing a bigger role than France, and Italy is unlikely to play any role at all. 2) About Egyptian ethnicity, it's not old at all. The current population is Arab and settled after the first Islamic expansion waves, while the original Egyptians (pyramids and what not) were a completely different people but have completely disappeared. Kind regards and thanks for the great videos.

[@dominicsheldon8154]

Copts have more in common with the ancient Egyptians. The modern population is a blend of arab/ancient. Tge Arabs would have had to exterminate all tge ancient Egyptians to achieve this.

[@semihengin6051]

How did they completely disappear? I’m asking because I’m trying to understand. Thanks

[@DieFlabbergast]

Nonsense. The early Islamic armies had nowhere near the capacity to exterminate the Ancient Egyptian population, and if they had, who would they replace them with? The population of the Hijaz, where the Prophet Mohammed came from, was negligible then, and is still negligible now, compared to Egypt. Outside of Arabia (the clue is in the name) hardly anyone in the Middle East and North Africa is actually an Arab: they just speak Arabic. The language of the Qur'an gradually (it didn't happen immediately) pushed out the local languages, just as Latin had done in Gaul and Hispania, and just as Aramaic had done previously in the Levant. The people remained the same, only the language changed, as well as that part of their culture that was dictated by the Qur'an (The Muslims' holy book says nothing about a large slice of life). Similarly with Egypt, the populations of modern-day Syria and Iraq are largely descended from the Assyrians, Babylonians, and other ethnic groups that pre-existed the rise of Islam.

[@thetaomega7816]

assimilated by the arab invaders@@semihengin6051

[@Mr.barba97]

I would not want France in Libya as an Italian. They are competion more than Germany and uk

[@jeffbeck8993]

After America, 7-11 won't have Slurpees. It's over. 😥