Russia Is Failing Not Failed || Peter Zeihan

[@steve8510]

I won't be surprised one day when Peter admits he walks on a treadmill with a screen behind him.

[@col0342]

Only after he finishes building his bunker in NZ and no longer has a reason to frantically search for a location :)

[@billdarling2629]

...and he used AI to generate the reflections (of the backgrounds) in his sunglasses?

[@torentmonkey]

@@billdarling2629 anything can be done on this level today, not sure it's that necessary tough.

[@6140LIBRA]

😆😆

[@richardlellip.e.m.b.a.7969]

New Zealand is amazing, unlike your poor educated geopolitical analysis. Richard E. Lelli, P.E. M.B.A.

[@xSPAZNSPARTANx]

Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Middle Earth.

[@tiki0000]

The Gandalf we didnt deserve, but the Gandalf we needed

[@axios76]

The Matuki tuki

[@dereknicol3465]

Zeihan the grey 😅

[@dereknicol3465]

Hi from Auckland (jaffa land)

[@axios76]

@dereknicol3465 🤣🤣🤣🎯

[@Strvfe]

I don't think that Russia can just say "I've targeted your cities" without us and our allies saying the same thing right back to him. If I remember correctly we also have nukes...

[@friedrichjunzt]

You really think, Trump would risk a global war for something he despises (Europe)? You think the Brits would risk a global war for a Europe they exited a few years Ago? I wouldn't be so sure.

[@sculpt-media]

My issue with journalists is they won’t look at both sides. They will focus on one POV and start making opinions and guesses from the place of authority. Who will this war benefit and why is stopping the war a bad thing. The war should stop.

[@Henveymick]

We do but we lack unified leadership atm. By we I mean Europe and The American countries.

[@okalov]

MAD isn't a strategy of self preservation...

[@elkofdeath]

He just explained that the condition is when the button pushers have nothing left to lose. If their working class men have all been used up on the lines and whoever has codes is due to be removed soon, those higher ups have no future if they don't take the tiny chance of taking the world hostage. It's disgusting but entirely a possible path.

[@marcinosowski8033]

Many of those "Russian" scientists and engineers of the Soviet era were in fact Ukrainian. For example the space program was led by a Ukrainian.

[@newwaveinfantry8362]

Yep. Karalev or Karalov, however you say it.

[@janekmazur5985]

Arent soviet brilliant scientis a bit less alive by now? It is not like Rus Oligarchy cared alot about scientific progress to create next gen. And next gen could travel to west or china for more cash and better life for kids. The history of Armata tank shows that rus enginnering fell from glory.

[@vicm5517]

Yes! Bur since their independence Ukraine achieved nothing tho, all because the russian money is no more

[@squireson]

@vicm5517 Russia hasn't really achieved anything either though and remember All that Russian wealth came from their conquered territories not Moscow or it's immediate area.

[@squireson]

@@janekmazur5985 Russian education system kind of fell to pieces after Gorbachev was pushed out. The limited number of people with good education in Russia, A) have business degrees of one stripe or another, and B) were educated in Europe or America.

[@dantekizungu2609]

Peter is talking about amazing Russian engineers. Well, the center of the famous ex-Soviet space program has been and continues to be located in Dnepro, central Ukraine. That is exactly why Ukrainians are developing new drones and other stuff with a speed of light and Russians are smuggling in nearly everything from China and Iran. Even the super-mighty tank Armata Russians were bragging about so much is nowhere to be seen.

[@Mildau30]

USSR had many centers defined by different design bureaus(OKB) which competed with each other. Of course, the most famous was bureau led by Korolev, but bureaus led by Kerimov, Keldysh, Yangel, Glushko, Chelomey, Makeyev, Chertok were equally important.

[@Loki1191]

His take here was delusional, maybe one the worst ever. He talks about an army and a state with qualities and capabilities that it clearly does not have.

[@u2beuser714]

I swear the pro ukraine camp makes the best pro russian propaganda ever. The only time ukraine flourished scientifically is when they were under russian control?,

[@u2beuser714]

Developing drones is not complicated even iran can do this, the fact that you think this is somehow an achievement is a testament to the fact that ukraine is lacking in any substantial innovation

[@tjones44236]

The biggest Soviet Ukrainian university cluster was in Kharkiv. Leningrad and Academgorodok were also major university cities. Then there were 'secret' research cities. Dnipro wasn't even a popular city for students when I was there in 2009 - people either studied in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernivtsi or Lviv

[@julonkrutor4649]

Nukes go both ways.

[@zill0678]

that brings little comfort

[@uhliuv]

but ruzzians are doomed anyway .... and they know it

[@gerrya4818]

exactly.nobody is using nukes.its suicidal.

[@tawmas1593]

@@zill0678 bowing down to bullies gives even less comfort. Don't be a Chamberlain

[@Budguy68]

@@tawmas1593 peaceful negotiations is not bowing down to bullies... 50 million people wouldve been alive if Chamberlain wasn't removed by the international Zionist.

[@bluejeans8001]

I realize it’s “off” your channel’s mission statement but as a hiker I’d enjoy knowing more about your hiking equipment and adventures.

[@kinkin1754]

Agree. I would love to read a book or article about Peters hiking experiences

[@geofflewis8599]

Peter is doing wonders for New Zealand tourism.

[@queenstownswords]

Bring lots of sun screen!

[@keyboardwarrior9199]

Looks like Eglinton valley

[@ErnestoLopez-kr8zl]

Thank god. Because in geopolitics he’s an epic fail 😂😂

[@PAlt-p6y]

I wonder if they're officially sponsoring him!

[@turbojojol]

Oh I just noticed the cloud in the background resembling the shape of Ukraine ☺️☺️

[@J9_j3]

слава Україні!

[@Rob_F8F]

Sign from G-d?

[@baahcusegamer4530]

I thought it was a Pokémon, not kidding.

[@dayforit1750]

Including Crimea 🎉

[@Loki1191]

Including Crimea, God wants to tell us something. And it isn't what Peter told us. Synchronicity at its best.

[@thinkerly1]

In 1970, the US GDP was $1 trillion. Russia's (USSR's) was $433 billion. US GDP was twice Russia's, and Russia had the world's 2nd largest economy in the world. In 2024, US GDP was $29 trillion. Russia's was $2 trillion. US GDP is 14 times Russia, and Russia has fallen to the 12th largest economy (after South Korea) in the world.

[@rudysmith1552]

You’re wrong about Russia’s GDP it’s 6,454,737.77 ignoring USD exchange rate rates and only looking at industrial production imparity this is called a PPP This is a basic economic tool to measure the output of an economy absent the trade mechanisms of the swift financial system you’re off by a factor of three.

[@jeanlamb5026]

@@rudysmith1552 Of course it is. Whatever the Russian numbers say../s

[@MegaPablo57]

Russia is losing population and usa is icreasing that is the main reason, just like japan or france, countries with no population growth has more problems to double gdp.

[@2kusiainen]

​@@rudysmith1552 lol at the PPP coping

[@GrzegorzBrzeczyszczykiew-sz8ou]

@@jeanlamb5026This argument goes both ways.

[@Psyfertospsb]

This fool has been right 1 outa 100 times.

[@steventrotter4958]

I like those odds

[@ErnestoLopez-kr8zl]

Wrong. He’s been right 1 outa 10000 times

[@PAlt-p6y]

Ask yourself why he can consistently get a platform with a poor track record of predictions...

[@kurtbecker217]

I do the same thing... I go hiking all by myself... this is a wonderful way to think straight. My best thoughts happen when I am not distracted by others or when I have to pay attention to my work. I carry a voice recorder to keep my thoughts for later. Listen to my recordings and edit my thoughts, until I get it right. Free thinking can lead you into more and more complicated issues and without recording, the point of my thought will be lost. Also it helps to speak out loud (when alone), I think it engages another part of the brain... the speech center. If you have to explain a complicated topic to another person in writing or in spoken words, you avoid the usual condition of jumping all over the place.

[@Sperber15]

France and the UK have Nukes i really feel like this "analysis" has really taken that fact into consideration. Also I remain unconvinced that the US would "allow" such a use of WMDs I would even be suprised if China allowed for such a scenario to happen. I do like Peters Ideas, but I dont really see them standing on solid ground.

[@Bayard1503]

But would France or UK respond with nukes if Russia bombed Eastern Europe?? Would France risk Paris because Russia sent a nuke to Krakow? Honestly I don't think even France or UK know what they would do in a situation like this. France's nukes aren't even part of NATO for example.

[@peterflohr7827]

@@Bayard1503 Thats very sensible of France. Imagine some one else decides about your nukes.

[@Erik_Ice_Fang]

Honestly "allowing WMDs" for the US depends on the President. Obama did arguably nothing practical when Assad used nerve gas on civilians, despite the fact the US could easily overpower his military and government. And while few people complained when Trump did retaliate, I don't think there actually is a legal justification for force in US law. Much easier justification if an ally is attacked, BUT Russia is also far more dangerous. I could see a world where a US president fails to protect an ally.

[@vipur0376]

We’ll said Peter is extremely knowledgable but that doesn’t make him right on everything

[@irwinsaltzman979]

USA under Trump will not interfere with Russian aggression. Trump is transactional. No alliances, no friends , no regards to contracts( treaties)

[@RogerBuffington]

I think Peter underestimates the stress that Russia’s economy is experiencing. And Peter’s nuclear scenario is unrealistic because NATO also has nuclear weapons. Which are also likely much more reliable than the Russian ones. But Peter is right that supporting Ukraine 🇺🇦 now is the safest way to deter future further Russian aggression.

[@Quickshot0]

Yeah, for one his estimation on if Russia is in a war economy is probably some what wrong. They've acted like they aren't, but they've been doing stealth military industrial support, to hide the reality of things. Just like they've hidden as much as they can of other things. Real spending seems more like a war economy situation really in my opinion. So they're already serious, this is just the best they can manage and in another year their Soviet stockpiles will have mostly run dry. Who'd have ever thought those could run out...

[@seanlander9321]

@@RogerBuffington Dream on. On which level of delusion have you managed to convince yourself that the USA, UK or France would use nukes to protect anyone else but themselves?

[@gaberoo9099]

@@Quickshot0 Agree. His analysis of what would happen to Ukraine never materialized (that Ukraine would fall quickly), so I expect his scenario about Russia threatening with nuclear weapons and everyone folding is a bit...dodgy. I don't discount his views, but I always use a healthy dose of skepticism when hearing them.

[@altratronic]

NATO's nukes "...are also likely much more reliable than the Russian ones." It's questionable whether many of Russia's nukes would work at all. In fact, maybe none of them would Much or all of the money allocated by the Kremlin to maintain them has in all likelihood been stolen.

[@cdsandiego]

Yeah, but not under a Trump 2.0 Administration. He'd rather see a scorched-Earth policy that feeds the vengeful, hateful, xenophobic MAGA base, and as such, it wouldn't surprise me if he vetoes any Congressional support for Ukraine that amounts to big money or other commitments. Thankfully, with only a slim majority held by the GOP, an override of the veto could happen.

[@Ishitzunot-Antman]

He’s like a weather man 30% chance he’s right

[@ErnestoLopez-kr8zl]

30%?😂😂😂 He’s not right even 10%

[@PAlt-p6y]

That's all anything really is if humans are involved. Percentages of some type.

[@kobusvanrensburg4092]

For three years all we have heard is how Russia is going to fall apart any second....and yet they are still going. So much for "the experts".

[@all4bspinnin311]

Agreed.

[@stevebarrett6767]

For 3 years we have waited for the SMO to achieve something. At current rate they will sieze Ukraine in a couple of decades, maybe even liberate Kerson.

[@6140LIBRA]

@@stevebarrett6767 😄

[@GarySBCA]

Well, I can recall when one day the Soviet Union just fell apart. Russia will keep going too-right up until they don’t.

[@col0342]

Russia _is falling apart now_ - it just takes a long time for the fragments to sink.

[@SituationIsCrazy]

My only question is, if you think Russia will use nukes on NATO than why haven't they done so in Ukraine already?

[@zill0678]

they don't need to. they will win its just a matter of how many bodies it will cost. nato wants that to be as high as possible, Russia wants that to be as low as possible and Ukraine just wants to survive.

[@3drf]

give them time! Rump cant wait to push the button! playing God iscwhat his supporters are aiming for!

[@anthonyml7]

Because they want Ukraine

[@watchlover7750]

Because Xi said NO

[@donrayJ]

They aren't desperate. Yet

[@cosimocub]

how could they gobble up Western Ukraine, they can't even reach Kharkiv, not to mention the insurgencies they would face if they somehow managed to reach there

[@Bayard1503]

His scenario is if the West stops sending ammo to Ukraine. Or if China intervenes in a stronger way.

[@hermes7587]

As long as the Ukrainians can hold the defensive line, the Russians will only advance at a snails pace at best but if the Ukrainian lines break, e.g. due to a lack of support, the Russian advance could dramatically increase. We should not take it as given that the Ukrainians can hold the line indefinitely.

[@olgglo]

don't count on insurgencies, this has no hope nowadays. some minor sabotage acts maybe, but no "uprising" or whatever starwars scenario you're imagining

[@cosimocub]

@@olgglo Russia couldn't occupy Kiev, Odessa or Lviv nor would they want to

[@olgglo]

@ this has nothing to do with insurgencies, right? There's been none in the occupied territories, and it's not because the people would not have liked to. It's because it's simply not feasible in the current state of surveillance capabilities and Russia's readiness to suppress anything in most radical way.

[@AliceinWonderlandzz]

There is a balance point not considered here. I find it impossible to believe Ukraine is not making it's own nukes. There is no technological, skill or supply barrier. Ukraine used to be the main manufacturer of Soviet nukes. Three years into the war they should have at least a handful of Hiroshima sized warheads they can mount on a plane or missile and deliver to Russia. That threat removes the ability of Russia to overrun them - even if US aid is withdrawn. I think at this point Russia will negotiate a peace with Trump and lick it's wounds. The west gained the most from the war - we used our obsolete inventory to completely cripple the Russian military without losing a single soldier or civilian.

[@richardthomas5362]

If Taiwan doesn't have nukes then they are idiots. I can see them developing them and cooperating with Ukraine.

[@Quickshot0]

There is one possible reason they might not, which is they might fear Russia preemptively nukes them if they try. But else I agree that it's not like they can't, they've got relevant parts of the nuclear industrial base for it at least, even if not all of it, that could be filled in. If Russia ever left them a gap to make them, I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

[@skeewiffenator]

I’d be more worried about a neighbor giving them a leg up or even a working one. After americas abandonment, who’s going to listen to the us about nuclear proliferation.

[@mbak7801]

I would not be surprised if Ukraine held back a couple of weapons after promising to scrap them all. Not full size missiles but a couple or more suitcase nukes. They will keep very quiet about it until the US walks away and it looks like the country is falling and then the party starts.

[@elysiumfields]

There is a cost, and opportunity cost involved, however.

[@ErnestoLopez-kr8zl]

Every 4 months I come to this channel for cringe and and a good laugh😂😂

[@Vaidi32]

Number 2 😂 Peter should start writing Tom Clancy novels. The air must be really thin up there, leading to some hallucinations…

[@ivailogaidarski641]

This guy is totally funny. I watch him to amuse myself and see the depth of human stupidity in the so called experts.

[@Olena-g7o]

@@ivailogaidarski641 Hundreds of others are stupid too?..Only you alone have all the answers …😢

[@shaneashby5890]

Let’s see what Peter gets completely and totally wrong again today 🤔

[@Fokas-n8t]

Peter claims Russia is dying.... Sure. But in a slower rythm than the West. The West is already with one foot in the grave. Europe has already become inconsequential in world affairs. USA will just prolong its agony for a mere 50 years and then it is over.

[@comentedonakeyboard]

3:19 France will remind Russia that the "Force de Frappe" exists for this exact scenario.

[@jperin001]

Sounds like a euphemism for what happens to my bowels after a Starbucks Frappe. 😂

[@mrcrowley109]

I don't think Russia is at all worried about France, even at the nuclear level.

[@jperin001]

@@mrcrowley109 They do have much bigger worries for sure.

[@comentedonakeyboard]

@@jperin001 if i was Putin i would worry about my chinese Frienemy Xi🤫

[@ametora1231]

"Russia is over!" proclaims increasingly nervous geopolitical thinker for the thousandth time

[@gorkyd7912]

Whole video is saying Russia is not over.

[@andrewwhite3793]

Nuclear wise Peter talks like Europe has no reply. If so it would be Poland today Germany tomorrow. But its not so basically France and UK would reply Yea sure but 5 minutes after you launch we launch because we ain't going down this road again.

[@TrevorCrook-c1s]

Ukraine and the west have failed . Russia sitting pretty

[@kaiser3626]

Europe also has nukes, Russia can't just blackmail nuking european capitols without risking their own. Moreover, european nuclear weapons are submarine based, so they can't be eliminated in a surprise nuclear attack, the deterrance is assured. Thinking Russia are going to risk a conventional war with NATO when they had bleed out in Ukraine and they are low in manpower is just nonsense.

[@anthonyml7]

I think only the UK has submarine based nukes though

[@MyOrangeString]

​@@anthonyml7 no, French here, we're very proud of our submarine fleet and capacity of nuclear deterrence.

[@starling-]

Russia blackmails nuking the west for 3 years already. This is the only reason of the limited support for Ukraine. Why do you think there's a limitation on use of western weapons deep in Russian territory? It's NATO who afraid of the war, not Russia. It's NATO says every day "we don't want escalation", Russia doesn't have any problems with escalation. Yes, they know the risks of response. Russia doesn't threatens Ukraine it just different league, it threatens the west. Did everyone forgot Putin's "ultimatum to NATO" in December 2021 demanding the US basically to withdraw from Eastern Europe countries, or else...?

[@u2beuser714]

​@@MyOrangeString Your nation raised the white flag at the first sign of trouble. You are a papertiger. Btw , Hungarian here.

[@kalgore4906]

@@MyOrangeStringnukes mean. Nothing if you don’t have an army to back them up. Go look at some videos of European armies training, gives you real 1800 Prussian vibes. You guys don’t need to die on a battlefield so Raytheon can have a higher stock price.

[@jimberk4651]

glad to see you're putting a release date on your videos.

[@danieldpa8484]

Ukraine needs to get everything to win!

[@DavidGitongawriter]

Again, you keep getting your analysis 'forgetting' that NATO expansion is the cause of all this. Why are all these analysts refusing to discuss this fact?

[@Scar626]

This just doesn't stack up. The scenario he mentioned at 2:00 . . Pretty much already exists. They are already at those borders, already have nukes they can launch right now and can already make those demands . . Even if Ukraine wins, Russia will still have nukes and will still be at those borders. In other words he completely dodged the question. So let us roll with his logic; let us say all of NATO does stand back and let Russia invade Poland . . Okay, same question as before: The Russian military? Will they be able? Either it is strong enough or it isn't. Can't be both.

[@petervote7914]

Russia can't even invade all of Donbass, how to invade Poland?

[@Scar626]

@@petervote7914 Action speaks louder than words. Politicians, generals and economists can say whatever they want, but their actions reveals the truth about what they really think about the situation.

[@Olena-g7o]

@@petervote7914 They will threaten Poland with its nuclear weapons and …the decision will be made…

[@johnpatterson4516]

Excellent update !

[@mattl6300]

Wait, I didn't know Russia was the only country with nuclear weapons? When did we get rid of ours?

[@kkostadinof]

US is afraid to die in MAD,, Russia isn't. That's the diffference.

[@mattl6300]

@kkostadinof well, why haven't the Russians or the soviets before them ever pushed this massive advantage that completely negates the MAD premise?

[@voycodin5042]

Ukraine has received unprecedented military and financial backing of NATO countries, in addition to actively preparing for this war since 2014 via NATO advisors. Their military spend is arguably bigger than Russia’s. Despite all of above, and as indicated in the video without full Russian mobilization and war economy, Ukraine lost Crimea and additional 20% of its territory, forever. It will lose this war. That’s a given.

[@garyfiedler7283]

Those scientists and engineers are gone and are not coming back in Russia.

[@zman4444]

Zdravstvuj Komtad Peter Vladimirovic Zahan

[@JamesMary-b7z]

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[@RobertAnn-b1l]

I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??

[@JamesMary-b7z]

Mrs Cathie wood

[@kathyfrederick7172]

Her services is the best, I got a brand new Lambo last week and paid off my mortgage loan thanks to her wonderful services!

[@petervote7914]

What a serene video with the mountains.

[@lofthousehh]

Do the russian nukes actually work?

[@jimmyjimmy8192]

Yep

[@slimjimnyc270]

Nobody knows... They are a priority & are supposed to be maintained but who know how much of the money was skimmed off into some Generals' bank account.

[@hummerskickass]

Presumably, they do seem to do a good job at keeping the forces capable of delivering those weapon systems functional. I don’t imagine all of their nukes are operational but they don’t need all 7+ thousand of them to be a threat.

[@sogerc1]

Not all 6000 of them, but some of them probably do. My guess is they have just enough working nukes to counter China.

[@BoltarThePirate]

They only need a few. Dangerous question to ask.

[@WinnettTransportation]

The cloud behind you is amazing.

[@joebrown6768]

Peter given new meaning to working from home. Aka working from some of the most beautiful palaces in the world. 👍👍👍👍👍👍 . Ps great analysis. ❤🌏🌏🌏🌏🌏🌏

[@LagunaL8]

Some of the scenery is so majestic

[@kmann0317]

Hasn’t Russia already been on the border with NATO? For years with no issues?

[@martinledermann1862]

They were until the neo-cons decided to enlarge their empire and started meddling in internal affairs of previously neutral countries like Georgia and Ukraine.

[@uingaeoc3905]

The border with NATO and Russia was tiny, the three Baltic States and Poland and most of it because of the Kaliningrad Exclave. That was in 2022, in 2024 Finland and Sweden joined NATO because of the Ukraine invasion which made the border much longer, in Karelia and the Baltic is no longer neutral.

[@prrrromotiongiven1075]

Russia has never feared a NATO invasion, they have nukes after all so nobody can just invade them out of nowhere. It's just propaganda they repeat to justify their imperialism.

[@Rob_F8F]

What is changing is that Russian society is dying and a Russian leader might decide to go out with a bang.

[@Rob_F8F]

​@@uingaeoc3905You really need to consider the Belarus border as the Russian border

[@zebwairau]

It's cool to see you walking through where I grew up

[@goonerOZZ]

Russia is failing since 2022, now fighting with shovels and washing machine 😄

[@kht27]

Thanks for the videos from New Zealand, promoting our country's natural beauty

[@bensmith5413]

Peter with the hottest of takes. Credibility taking a dent today.

[@TheHeartlessFour]

Don't elaborate.

[@PhilAndOr]

Hot take: "Russia will threaten to nuke Western Europe" Just like they did last week.

[@harrisonwarner6437]

The whole week later thing is just a fart in the wind while hiking

[@fagal321]

What would be your response to people like Scott Ritter and Douglas McGregor who say that Russia is comfortably in the driver seat and the casualty numbers are 7-1 in favor of Russia and that Russia has no interest in invading Poland or other NATO countries? Not saying they are right but just curious that all these analysts seem to be saying the opposite.

[@KolyaUrtz]

Lmao. "Russian ethnicity is dying" "This is russian last century" 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@eazyseven3443]

😂 Once again! The prophetic genius Zeihan After being wrong every single time (no matter what he is talking, what he wrote or dream about)!

[@speedcreep2605]

I have a couple of questions about this: First, if this scenario makes a nuclear exchange over Poland palatable to the Russians (aka nuclear armageddon, because we would retaliate) then why would Putin be unwilling to nuke Ukraine? If this is the logical conclusion, should we not preemptively hit Russia with everything we have right now? Also, I thought the great soviet engineers were German?

[@NZLifestyle285]

Welcome to New Zealand 😊

[@hamchannell]

Uk 55 minutes away with their 4 subs with nukes. And aren't they all pointed right at Moscow?

[@samuel5823yo]

Well said.

[@nicholasyoung2794]

I'm hoping Ukraine proves him wrong

[@robertrohler3644]

Peter we always enjoy the beautiful country sides you take your hikes. Keep on Treking.

[@patricknoble4585]

Its always amazing hearing someone say a war has to be fought when its not their life on the line.

[@Azoth011235]

Peter you can't be forgetting your windsock my guy. Please 🙏😂

[@t44s]

Let's be honest, Peter is an entertainer. Yes, he's a smart guy but not as all-knowing as he pretends to be. On the positive side, if enough of his predictions are wrong he'll make a great manager of a sporting goods store. :)

[@JohnAmatulli]

Or a CNN contributor

[@rogerwilliams1556]

Or a FOX News contributor

[@sharisalois]

Thank you 😊

[@hardheadjarhead]

That nuke speculation of his is silly. Those nukes of Russia’s negate Zeihan’s “Russia needs to control these chokepoints for security” thesis. And they likely have those capitals targeted now. Putin, et al, are ambitious and imperialistic, but they are NOT suicidal.

[@vipur0376]

Agreed

[@tetyanasydor9645]

+1 i think it's not about this simple security logic in putin's reasons for war. nukes are already a kind of security

[@GlennLaycock]

But as he noted - if you get to the point where your civilization and culture and done if you get a "no" - suicide is a pre-emptive conclusion that "wins the battle of a glory because the war is lost effectively with that "no".

[@mmurphy1533]

The whole chokepoints story is just an excuse for expanding. It always was, but now, with nukes, it is doubly ridiculous.

[@AlexthunderGnum]

Kia Ora! Hello from one Russian who lives in New Zealand.

[@richardlellip.e.m.b.a.7969]

New Zealand is amazing, unlike your poor educated geopolitical analysis. Richard E. Lelli, P.E. M.B.A.

[@florete2310]

Fantastic breakdown / analysis completely aside: This landscape looks *amazing* - I'd really love to visit NZ one day. Wonderful❤

[@Ben-bg2lp]

Peter's had his left arm amputated and replaced with a selfie stick.

[@Rob_F8F]

I think he is just old-school holding his phone with his actual hand.

[@Tom_McMurtry]

At least we get to see beautiful views. NZ is stunning.

[@pedtrog6443]

A truly beautiful part of New Zealand

[@KDubs107]

There’s no gradual roll into those mountains. Wow, it just goes from flat to vertical.

[@jimluebke3869]

Peter: "Russia has lots of scientists and we need to be scared of them" Also Peter: "Russia's educational system collapsed long ago, so they don't have any scientists left." Before you say they have old scientists but not young scientists, how many of those scientists back in the Sputnik era were young?

[@johnp2540]

You're right. Peter didn't do his home work on this one. A lot of the smart Russians have left.

[@jimluebke3869]

@@johnp2540 I knew a number of them, back in Silicon Valley. Pro tip -- never go up against an old Russian (or Eastern European) in a game of office politics. Back in the Old Country, they played that game for keeps. Anyone who says they would prefer communism because they hate corporate culture, should bear in mind that a communist society is just one big corporation.

[@Clust3rFunk1]

ah dude, you're in my favourite valley! recognised it instantly

[@crosslink1493]

At 2:45; Finland is not included as a Russian take-over target? I think the NATO countries are going to want to have that conference call as a 'video conference' so Putin can see all of them giving him the middle finger at the same time.

[@PhilAndOr]

lmao, yep. Nobody is rolling over in such a scenario as Peter described. Russia already threatens to nuke The West on any given day of the week.

[@hyhhy]

There is no point in fighting Finland (or Poland) for Russia unless it is forced to in retaliation.

[@Tomas-x8x]

If Pete says Finland, audience will realize that it is 2024 and not 1914.

[@chin9888]

Thanks for that sober opinion

[@philippthomas1731]

Why is it that every time i click on a video of Zeihan I go out of it even more scared of the future. Ps: It is a rhetorical question

[@regwatson2017]

Because fear and negative comment gets him more views.

[@PhilAndOr]

Because Peter pedals fear-mongering fantasies to get those sweet sweet views. He lays out this nuclear blackmail scenario as if Putin wasn't already doing exactly this for the last 10 years. "Ok guys, I know we threated to nuke you 1,000 times already, but this time, we're really serious!"

[@kkostadinof]

Because Zeihan is a CIA propaganda warmongerer.Ignore his doomsday scenario and use his outlandish forecasts purely as entertainment - they hold no serious value.

[@rogeredrinn4592]

Great insight: Failing does not mean Failed !!! So many clickbaits claiming Russia's collapse is imminent, your insights put a different lens on it. Thanks

[@blinkingmanchannel]

I love these thought process monologues! Truly. So just following along here, a few things seem logical: (1) The West should play for time to let demographics play out, not only because that’s the cheapest way to solve the overall problem. Quagmire is the new… prosperity…? something catchy. (2) The West would very much like to take up black market purchases of, say, launch computer components, and maybe super fast clock chips, say, like you might find in high precision detonators…? Who is in better position to gut the Russian nuclear arsenal than the wannabes who are getting paid peanuts for guarding it?! (3) Given the history of power vacuums (and may I call it “empire fatigue”?) Who’s coming up behind Moscow to capitalize on its demise?

[@dennisclapp7527]

Thanks Peter

[@Priyank-wo4gy]

The demography of ethnic Russians is decreasing and they are dying, but the local and indigenous population of Ukraine, Baltic countries, France, Germany is also decreasing, the fertility rate of these countries is similar to that of Russia.

[@anthonyml7]

Is their a solution though?

[@col0342]

France is still holding.

[@Meteor_pending]

​@@anthonyml7a lot of copulation and a lot of patience, but what is really needed is a cultural shift toward a new babyboom, not to mention that you cannot avoid going through the "bad years" when even in the best scenario where you achieve all of that, you are still stuck for a significant period of time with an aging population and the (hopefully) babyboom children won't be active in the workforce yet. The standard of living will fall, the only question is whether there is any hope at all to one day bounce back. And no, immigration does not provide a solution, that's like trying to fix a stabbing wound by supergluing the skin. Plus, that means effectively robbing another nation from its active population, which is quite an immoral policy in its own right.

[@starling-]

@@anthonyml7 it appears that people like to make babies the next year after a big war ends. Read about Post-WW2 baby boom.

[@boblately5402]

@@col0342lmao, no it’s not France like other Western European countries is in the process of being totally replaced with migration.

[@aclz27]

A Russia which has nothing to lose does not exist. If Russia exists, it always has much to gain or lose, as does any country. We are all interdependent, as nations and as individual humans, whether we admit it or not. Every country consists of humans that have agency to negotiate every moment they are alive, given the core nature of being human. We all live and breathe and have our being within a greater interdependent whole.

[@elkofdeath]

A superpower with nothing left to lose is the real red line.

[@altayrstudio]

Far, very far from a superpower.

[@newwaveinfantry8362]

Not a super power.

[@prrrromotiongiven1075]

Russia is currently struggling to even assert regional power never mind being a superpower

[@pete1853]

Russia STILL has the largest nuclear stockpile in the world.

[@dzcav3]

Putin still has his life to lose, which he doesn't want to lose.

[@bethmendoza1847]

I love the lion fish cloud in the background.

[@sblack48]

THATS WHY WE NEED TO SUPPORT UKRAINE

[@KirSor-kw1se]

it’s too late, there’s no one to help, 12 million have left and are not going to return, and when they open the border, everyone else will leave too

[@YoutubeUsername7777]

Game over amigo.

[@sblack48]

@ you may be right, in which case Russia will be on Nato’s border and a lot of people are going to die. Again.

[@bigglesharrumpher4139]

I used to hunt in that area. The red deer would emerge from the forest onto the flats in the evenings, but I never was game to seek out the Thar - mountain deer high up among the peaks. There are also reportedly Moose still in Fiordland national park further south.

[@lennnon20]

Did Peter just sort of forgot that UK and France also have nukes? I imagine he probaly didnt but would have been good to elaborate on why he doesnt think that those will be a factor.

[@piotrkarp9562]

He didn't. They will never use them agains Russia. I mean, they will but if they would be attacked. I really can't see how they just shoot them out during conflict, with for example, Baltic States.

[@seanlander9321]

@@lennnon20 He excluded France and the UK from the scenario. What makes you think that France or the UK would threaten nuclear retaliation for, let’s say Estonia? They wouldn’t, so Estonia is surrendered without a fight.

[@Quickshot0]

@lennon20 Zeihan in all his projection just tends to ignore the existence of the EU in general and just seems to presume you'll be easily able to maneuver the various EU countries against each other against their best interests. I'm not sure why they think such things at times, but everyone else that tried it so far failed. So it seems kind of overly unrealistic. Maybe they just don't believe that small nations could actually band together to resist stronger nations? And that surely they'll just fall apart or can be picked apart with some 'encouragement'?

[@seanlander9321]

@ The Europeans don’t stick together though, they’re easily fractured and regularly threaten each other with being thrown out of the club, or leaving it as Britain has done. The point he is making is, would a nuclear power use its weapons to defend a country other than itself? The answer is of course it wouldn’t. Therefore the current state of play in Eastern Europe isn’t great and there’s still no plan from Europe about how to end the war Russia has started. Here though is an example of how the Europeans are clueless: Australia is the keystone in NATOs detection and retaliation because it houses and operates with America the SIGINT system. The Europeans though have inflicted a punitive trade embargo on Australia for generations, and lately reinforced it to favour trade with Russia. Now that is stupidity on a level that has probably convinced Putin that he can win against such intellectual minnows.

[@itsallfunandgames723]

Peter's understanding of the global military situation is easily on par with his understanding of American politics.

[@jakegillum]

I'm becoming increasingly jealous of these hikes... New Zealand looks amazing.

[@ajuc005]

Just a reminder Peter prognosed starvation next year each year since 2022 :) As well as end of globalization and European car manufacturers :) Would be nice if he addressed these failed prognoses eventually.

[@wattlebough]

Volkswagen has begun closing factories. That’s no small thing.

[@eazyseven3443]

Are you even aware of the fact that the Russians are like the US in comparison to the Brits! The Russians are two generations ahead in delivery systems while having the edge (two generations) in airdefense and electronic warfare systems that the US didn't need and the money just disappeared since the 90's! But don't worry, Hollywood and some TV shows are talking about area 51 and the the British counterpart, despite the fact that the British industries throat was slipped by Thatcher! Everything the UK has is US owned, made and stored! That's why the Russians are not even annoyed anymore about the noise coming from London! Berlin. Brussels All of them took part in the US lead path to take out all of the agreements surrounding nuclear weapons, mid, long, short range, but in comparison to the Obama, Trump, Biden and Trump Administration The Russians took the worst case scenario as the problem and they did the job, research Development, testing, deployed for the first and second hypersonic generation while working on the third mn, The West has none, Trump had to scrap the US hypeso multi billion dollar project and announce a. New one! Besides him claiming that Russia stole the US hypersonic system from Obama! 😂 🤣 Yes The one you had to scrap because it didn't work and the costs went out of control! The US and the west should take care of the lawyers Bankers and Cyrpto guy's, (Hollywood. Drug and human traffickers are not going to be stolen (Epsteins, Weinsteins and Co) But the i bet Epstein would have survived in any Russian prison especially on suicide watch when both security specialists fell asleep. The cameras failed including in the security cell and Epstein couldn't have strangulate himself with a paper towel t-shirt! This is the reason why! This is why Musk is taking with a Chinese company to buy their Ai

[@oleksiysokolov3510]

Please don’t count Ukrainian Soviet engineers as Russian.

[@swampwiz]

Pete, when I think of the performance of the Ukrainian Heroes, I can't help but think of movie "300" with Zelinskiy doing the Gerard Butler role of Leonidas, and Putin as a pip-squeak Xerxes.

[@vjetar2822]

elenskyy dressed as woman taking it from behind by biden. :D

[@alexandrelangele3729]

Peter vloging from Rohan

[@anthonyml7]

Doesn't realize they've already taken the hobbits to Isenguard

[@deanstevenson6527]

🥝✔️ This Dunedin Boy loves that your back. I walked it twice with Dunstan High School. 1998 was a great University Year. Great observations.

[@shaigugerasimov]

The russians are shamefully retreating forwards and and the ukranians are heroically advancing backwards! Each victory is closer to Kiev!

[@Ameridlo]

Key Knowledge Fields Peter Zeihan Lacks: 1. Economic and Industrial Constraints in Modern Warfare • Russia’s inability to scale military production under sanctions, the limitations of Chinese support, and NATO’s overwhelming economic resilience in a long-term conflict. 2. Modern Deterrence and Asymmetric Warfare Dynamics • NATO’s superior nuclear deterrence, the unreliability of Russia’s aging arsenal, and the transformative impact of advanced technologies like drones, precision-guided weapons, and real-time intelligence. 3. Strategic Geography and Internal Stability Risks • Ukraine’s geographic value as a NATO buffer, the logistical challenges of Russian occupation, and the risks of internal instability within Russia due to prolonged conflict and economic strain.

[@hybridarmyoffreeworld]

Moscow horde´s war record :- 1856 defeated by Britain and France 1905 defeated by Japan 1917 defeated by Germany 1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states 1939 defeated by Finland 1969 defeated by China 1989 defeated by Afghanistan 1989 defeated in the Cold War. 1996 defeated by Chechnya 2022 defeated by Ukraine 2024 defeated in Syria WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :- a) Hungary 1956 b) Czechoslovakia 1968 c) Moldova 1992 d) Georgia 2008

[@petervote7914]

But Russia won against Napoleon and Hitler. That is all that counts, lol. These two commanded the most powerful armies in the entire world in their day and lost to Russia.

[@aborkeabor]

xoxol moment

[@riccardorigucci6936]

Yes but those were defensive wars. ​@@petervote7914

[@odenat3701]

Well, according to your logic, USA is also defeated at Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

[@rudysmith1552]

Syria doesn’t count Ukraine is ongoing Finland was a technical victory Poland, was unable to liberate Ukraine and failed at portions of their war goals. Chynea 2 was a success. And you’re ignoring Napoleon and Hitler.

[@JohnSteeleshow]

Never has one man been so wrong about so much.

[@magnuszerum9177]

Russia has been winning. Slowly methodically grinding up Ukrainian troops as they take territory. Ukraine is running out of troops. Russia can't do this forever, but they can keep it up for a few years yet. As for the Demographic death, every nation is suffering that right now.

[@kethughes8266]

Putin's extreme reluctance for general mobilisation suggests he is not secure in his own position couple that with his failing health and your few years might be overly optimistic.

[@billhanna2148]

Correct, Peter thinks the Russians are not winning when they are and without a new draft. Also Russia now has more battle hardened troops than any army in EU or the USA. There is no scenario for Putin to have a peace deal if he is WINNING. I wish Peter would get his facts right.

[@vladimirofsvalbard9477]

I here all different things when it comes to this subject. Now, my strength is typically in finance/economics; not geo-politics or currencies. However, Russia does have a massive export economy; largely petroleum. Their largest economic partners are China and India. Does Russia not have the ability to maintain it's own domestic economy based on just a few of these factors?

[@lonpfrb]

RF has spent $250Bn on SMO and another $200Bn on bank support for their industry so are $450Bn down, with $300Bn capital sanctioned overseas. With the hydrocarbon revenue falling they cannot support the $750Bn gap and so the rubble tumbles as confidence shrinks. The duma discussed ban on private savings withdrawal. Economic collapse is imminent with shadow fleet sanction reducing revenue further...

[@vladimirofsvalbard9477]

@@lonpfrb Thanks! Three questions though. Do you think a partnership with BRICS can alleviate this imminent collapse? Do you think that imminent collapse is bound to cause implosion or radical outward expansion (in desperation)? Also, wouldn't their currency devaluation also give incentive for an even stronger export economy? And could this affect the outcome?

[@lonpfrb]

@vladimirofsvalbard9477 Do you think a partnership with BRICS can alleviate this imminent collapse? For a $750Bn+ problem, Brazil and South Africa are irrelevant. Would india be willing and able to support at that level, no unlikely. The hydrocarbon revenue doesn't enable it and is a transactional benefit to them. For CCP the unlimited friendship is based on cheap raw materials for technology products again, not in the $750Bn range. Might it also mean doing something for strategic purposes, yes, it might. Overall, BRICS is more a political than a commercial construct so I doubt it can help.

[@vladimirofsvalbard9477]

@ Thanks for the info!

[@lonpfrb]

@vladimirofsvalbard9477 Do you think that imminent collapse is bound to cause implosion or radical outward expansion (in desperation)? Expansion is failing now, so implosion.

[@adriangrant1746]

Looks like Poland is ready to face them on their border with or without NATO support. It will be only a matter of time before conflict starts e.g. Russia will not be able to abstain itself. If RO is left without NATO support then for sure they will roll in and not stop there.. who/ what will stop them ?

[@ipetts]

Love how the Chinese government put a Dragon cloud in your background ;-)

[@tpimp4678]

Russia is not failing