London Bridge Is Falling Down

[@DoubleDogDare54]

Peter with a hangover is more informative to listen to than most commentators when they are stone cold sober.

[@MrSupergibs]

So far he's shown to be no better than any other political analyst, as almost all of them get things right immediately, but the much bigger picture wrong.

[@LRRPFco52]

@@MrSupergibs Geopolitical analyst and forecaster with a track record dating back to the 2000s, with things like: * Russia will invade Georgia * Russia will invade Ukraine no later than 2022 due to demographic decline * Direct Foreign Investments will flow into the US as the world destabilizes I've been following analysts for decades and haven't seen anyone like George Friedman and Peter Zeihan.

[@patmanley9215]

@@MrSupergibs and yet here we are.

[@TheSulross]

and most of the talking heads of legacy media are just propagandist prostitutes - they even are explicitly cooperating with the Biden admin to cooridinate their propaganda and censorship - really no different than state run media in communist China

[@jonrolfson1686]

Scone stold snober may be a somewhat over-rated condition😏

[@OMGRedCows]

Never was interested in this sort of analysis until Russia invaded Ukraine; I now wait for every video and discuss it with my dad during our daily phone calls! Thanks for putting things into easy to digest, informative videos.

[@godthesonhasilluminatedme]

Keep up that relationship with your father, he needs it! 🤩

[@99cya]

im glad to hear you have daily calls with your dad. i wish i could do the same. keep it up and stay healthy.

[@randyross5630]

Only Thing a Boomer Father Understands, is the Back of the Hand 👋 we can recuperate some of the 30 Trillion Dollars of Debt the Greedy Boomer Raked Up in Debt, by putting the Boomer Out to Pasture. Now it's time for you to do the Right thing, and take care of your father for US, it's your Responsibility as a Man.

[@MrHaniakari]

Try to never miss a call with him my friend 🤙🏼♥️

[@fazdoll]

Check the Joe Blogs channel. He's been discussing the economic implications of the Russian invasion too. Much of what Joe B says complements and agrees with Peter.

[@yuggoof]

I've lived in London my whole life and work in the Westminster area. It feels like economic activity has fallen off a cliff since the pandemic. Even now on some days there's not much going on in the city centre.

[@jhrusa8125]

You need to reconnect your economy to Europe. It's either that or connecting it to North America.

[@keyboarddancers7751]

I come to London every few months to visit family and I make a point of riding around all the central areas on my bicycle cos you get to see so much more. I'd say there are a lot more low quality shops (sweet shops) and unused commercial shop fronts than in the past and, apart from the most obvious big traditional tourist attractions, the place seems less busy too. I find it astonishing that a premier global city like London cannot look after itself properly.

[@johnnevada46]

@@keyboarddancers7751 I do the same and have made the same observations.

[@smftrsddvjiou6443]

@@jhrusa8125 Problem for the UK with North America, its influence is even less than its incluence in the EU. In the EU there was a veto option (however our Merkel ignored it, this woman destroyed not just Germany but Europe too, history will judge her. Worst German chancellor besides Hitler)

[@1painter4hire]

Stay Alert There, Crazy times now , Anything can happen.

[@TheWtfnonamez]

As a Brit I think this is an excellent take. Personally I think Brexit was a victory of ideology over pragmatism. Our entire economy and legislature had been hardwired into Europe for fifty years, and instead of renegotiating the EUs influence over the UK, we faceplanted out of the bloc in an incredibly ungraceful manner. A lot of the Brexit rhetoric was founded on demonizing Europe and this did not go down well. Overnight the UK went from being the most powerful financial hub in Europe, to a pariah. It became a very public stoning in the town square, and Brussels was handing out free bricks. Say what you like about Brexit on an ideological level, but on functional level, this was execute in the most shambolic manner possible. None of the benefits materialised, but a whole truck load of problems did. I ended up leaving London after many years. There is less work, they pay worse, but the cost of living is skyrocketing. I lost my job because the entire operation was relocated to mainland Europe because the client didnt want the hassle of operating across a problematic border. London used to be a place that was high cost and high reward. Now its just an expensive city where its hard to find work. I decided to leave and switch career. Now compound this with one of the least competent political periods in our history. The Conservatives are swapping out their leader as a matter of routine, most of their decisions are in some way organised around the principles of benefiting the incredibly wealthy, they are asset stripping the countries coffers, and the alternative is a Labour party that is riddled with Trotskyites. Right now at the ballot box you can only choose who gets to wreck the country and how. Personally I see my country as being in decline, and most people dont seem to have got the memo.

[@smftrsddvjiou6443]

Yes, I think EU needed UK and vice versa. And on top, you reestablished the Northern Ireland problem.

[@martinoamello3017]

I'm thinking the UK needs to revisit the old movie, Eat the Rich.. Poor Brits tend to be kind of skinny..

[@prw56]

Until the invasion of ukraine, I think holding that referendum was the most poor geopolitical decision of the current century.

[@sunspot42]

The Labour Party is riddled with neoliberals, same as the Democratic Party in America. Your problem is you have no alternative to their corrupt incompetence.

[@cncshrops]

I agree with most of your analysis, but 'Labour Party riddled with Trotskites'? It's no wonder we could so easily be led into this situation if an intelligent person can believe such nonsense.

[@dvgilg]

"It's entirely possible", Peter getting ready for that JRE appearance

[@newdelphi1883]

I'd love to watch Peter set Joe on a better path

[@jessestreet2549]

that will be like Einstein trying to explain physics to a chimp.

[@JimVarneyHaHa]

Joe fosho needs some new guests. Its been pretty dry since the move to TX

[@Enders_77]

Is that happening? I've been hoping for that since Peter was on BreakingPoints in like March. Modern Wisdom was a good substitute. Chris asked really good questions some interviewers stray away from. He pushed him on some things in a good way. But I really want a three hour, ask me anything sort of convo.

[@sundaymorningmassradioshow8624]

@@JimVarneyHaHa because he longer really decides anything anymore. He's sold himself.

[@warwickbartlett9930]

GBP is back to where it was. The selloff occurred in low liquidity markets in the Far East. When London opened the GBP recovered and has subsequently got back to where it was. The real problem is that the Government spent too much on COVID, but now knows what it needs to do, but Britain has had 30 years of liberal socialism, and the people like high tax big spend government. The State and all its taxes, and regulations are stifling. On this sell off the real problem was caused by final salary pensions, which let us be frank are not fundable, so investment managers have to gamble, and they got it wrong. UK had to bring back QE at the double quick. Yet again we have regulators sleeping on the job.

[@jacqdanieles]

The recovery is likely going to be short lived.

[@LC-sc3en]

Say what... you overspend so now you have to lower your income in the hopes that your high class investors who have no loyalty to any country will somehow feel satisfied with a million dollars a year or so more and not go global shopping for a place with even less taxes and possibly greater access to markets since you pulled yourself out of the European one? Doesn't seem like a safe bet to me. Looking at the history of the US all this results in is poorer results for more people and better results for a few people as the investor class keeps all the gains you give them and asks for more. They aren't even satisfied with paying essentially 0 taxes in the USA while earning billions and still don't provide most their employees with living wage jobs. What makes you think they could ever be bribed to stay in the UK and provide good for the people?

[@fazdoll]

"Literally brought a gun to a knife fight." I love this sentence of his. It combines two English idioms in heavenly correct grammar.

[@junkscience6397]

"heavenly correct grammar"? lol. I can't even....

[@TheSulross]

that famous 1961 movie, Zulu, depicts exactly what his phraseology evokes

[@selohcin]

"Literally" is not an idiom...

[@a7yout257]

IT HAS BEEN USED IN MANY VIOLENT MOVIES, A BIT LIKE THE MOVIE SCUM, WHERE HE SAYS WHERE IS YOUR TOOL

[@mattsantana7701]

“Whatever happens, we have got The Maxim gun, and they have not.” - Hilaire Belloc en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilaire_Belloc

[@Joker-yw9hl]

I know Peter knows this already but the UK did not join the EU in 1973. It joined the EEC. It became the EU in the early 90s, transitioning by stealth* from a trade bloc to a political union with ambitions to further centralise power. As this video is released the £ today has rebounded back to where it was last week (before the plunge) against the Dollar, Euro, Yen etc... That said, it's still relatively weak compared to what it should be. The £ should really be $1.40 or $1.30 (at least), not $1.12. We mustn't forget that the current strength of the US dollar is being reflected worldwide with all major currencies due to the ongoing energy crisis. The Euro has actually dipped below the Dollar for the timebeing. That said, the current UK Government is totally corrupt in its prostitution to big private interests in order to maintain power. The temporary plunge on the Pound was entirely their fault, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was deliberate for a quick cash and grab. I have no doubt in my mind that they will be voted out in 2024, but this will bring its own potential market turmoil. A coalition of the Labour Party and the Scottish Nationalists may not be seen favourably, but I suppose it can't get much worse than the current Government. *I say by stealth as people had no say on the matter and were not informed of what a European Union actually was

[@normanstevens4924]

The EEC was always going to become the EU; it's baked into the original treaties. We joined because economically we had no choice. But we intended to use the veto to block any progress. That failed.

[@zopEnglandzip]

Lord frost's interview on triggernometry was good, he is correct, this needs to happen and hopefully will lessen the damage long term, was never going to be a popular move short term and as you said the gbp has already recovered while euro continues it's decline.

[@Joker-yw9hl]

@Ready I would agree with you but the Tory Party so utterly dominates England that it wouldn't have had a Labour government until 1997 (without Scottish and Welsh votes), and I just don't see that happening again any time soon. I don't think anyone really wants to give the SNP more of a platform than they already have but we may be forced to, unless a minority government of Labour/Liberal Democrats is feasible. The support for the SNP in general elections has fallen in each general election since 2015 or Brexit (contrary to what many media outlets would have people believe) but it still looks like it'll continue to dominate up in Scotland, so I'm just interested to see what happens

[@adamrugen1850]

You may not like it but this is what peak cope looks like

[@gabrieleomaggio1461]

@@normanstevens4924 Yeah, and we mainland Europeans have hated the UK for its vetoes since forever. In that particular sense it's good that the UK left. Now if only we didn't have Hungary doing the same damn thing...

[@lawrenceperson3043]

Correction: The UK did NOT join the EU in 1973, they joined the European Common Market which, pre-Masstricht, was a free-trading bloc ONLY, not an aspiring superstate.

[@alcorfield1157]

Margaret Thatcher was one of the lead architects of the EU single market ...... I only wish she had still been around in 2016 , I reckon the outcome would have been entirely different.

[@julianshepherd2038]

The electorate founding document includes a commitment to "an ever closer union". It wasn't a secret in 73, we weren't all idiots.

[@julianshepherd2038]

@@billw6624 no the governments came together and agree further integration. Mrs Thatche resigned us up to it, not a civil servant.

[@hughjohns9110]

Correct.

[@guineapigfarmer6064]

As an English man, I've been aware of this house of cards that we have been in since before I was born. The Economy and industry has been continually sold off since post ww2, the working people have been undermind for decades, creating a massive under class. The UK pretty much exists in name alone.

[@TheKingOfBeans]

How could you be aware of something before you were born?

[@kennybautista8218]

@@TheKingOfBeans I think it is safe to say we have data? I didnt need to be born in the 1930 to know about WW2.

[@randyross5630]

I agree Ross-shire should Secede! And reform as the Earldom of Ross! The 1st Scottish Earldom before which being Mormeardoms, and get Nukes from North Korea and become a Rouge State!

[@nd15music73]

@@TheKingOfBeans That would be "Since before I was born I have been aware of this house of cards that we've been in". He said "I've been aware of the house of cards that we've been in since before I was born".

[@newblackdog7827]

Utter bollocks! The U.K. has the City of London, we’re the world’s 5th largest economy (assessments of India overtaking us are incorrect), we’re a nuclear power and we have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. If we’d stayed in the EU the U.K. WOULD have ceased to exist!

[@andyash5675]

Here in the UK, as a "middle power" I can assure you we do have a plan. We're going to restart the Austin Allegro production line. I tell you, if the world doesn't start supporting the NHS, we're going to foist a glut of really terrible cars on everyone. 🤣

[@thomasherrin6798]

Wouldn't that bring a nuclear threat from Russia as they have cornered (Assuming they can take corners without power steering) the inferior car market with the new Lada!

[@leetownley6132]

Unfortunately, this seems to be a far better idea than any that has been put forward in government so far.

[@davidcoverdale722]

Austin's entire range was a bit questionable. The Princess, the Ambassador the Maxi. Not a decent one in them.

[@Glove513]

The only Austin that I’m familiar with is the Mini which I have always been a fan of.

[@andyash5675]

@@Glove513 The Allegro never sold in the US because it only had "middle power"! 😄

[@vengermanu9375]

Unfortunately "The Brits" is a very small minority of people that continue to make the wrong decisions time after time. I didn't vote for Conservative party but our political system (first past the post) is such that it was forced upon us. I live in Scotland and voted to remain in the European Union, as did most of Scotland and "Brexit" was forced upon us by David Cameron and that hasn't turned out well. I think most people knew, including most Conservative party members that Boris Johnson was unfit to govern before he even got the job ... and so it turned out to be. Finally after the party getting rid of him and enduring an unnecessarily long leadership contest this summer we've ended up with Liz Truss who appears to have done even more damage to the country in her first week in the job, along with her chancellor, than Boris ever did. I believe most of the UK is fed up with this government getting major decisions wrong and putting their party donors and the interests of rich people before everyone else in the country. The sooner we can get rid of them the better!

[@vengermanu9375]

@@skyealexander4605 Tell it to those that do. Certainly in Scotland they are not very popular and haven't been for some time now

[@gedscouserable]

If over 1 million scots hadn't voted for Brexit, it wouldn't have happened!

[@smftrsddvjiou6443]

Yes Cameron was insane. Not just Brexit referendum (he voted for staying ?!) but also the Scotland referendum. So he could have had lost Scotland as well.

[@junkscience6397]

If you think the UK is run poorly right now, just wait until you get "independence" and Jimmy Krankie, I mean, Nicola Sturgeon is running the show!

[@vengermanu9375]

Yes, current system is too London-centric

[@johndinsdale1707]

Peter, love your books, I think I will pick up on your assessment of the UK and especially London, its almost a separate state, full of really smart people intent on finding a niche to make money, and Liz Truss wanted to moonshot that engine for growth. Unfortunately the same people used the naivety of the new chancellor to make money on currency and interest spreads to target pension companies so the BOE had to step in to shut it down. In the longer term London will always be the centre of gravity for finance in its timezone, so regardless of politics the quants will survive?

[@Casssen]

I think he knew that. I commented something in this direction. He talks about Britain and not the City of London. He don't opend this topic. I think that the "Web" will remain and Dubai or other old British jurisdictions are already a part of it. It's more of a shift. Or in terms of the British banking fashion... "Elsewhere".

[@Casssen]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/j3LFnXSHerOEnqc 6 months ago... :D I think his analysis is that you wouldn't get this type of Comment out of Dubai...

[@UrbanBard1]

I am wrong in this? What Liz Truss wants is "Tax Cuts without Spending Cuts." The world has played that fraud before, hasn't it? This game provides the illusion of growth without actually putting money in anyone's pocket. It makes a mockery of elections, too. What if England needs to trim down its government? If the jackboots were no longer on people's throats, wouldn't the common people be free to prosper? Naturally, the people wearing the jackboots would be upset about losing their power, but Liz Truss is pleasing neither the common people nor the bureaucrats. Liz, you have to choose between the people and the government. It's the jackboot wearers who are sabotaging Brexit. Just let people be free to trade with anyone they can. If that means the US, fine. If it's the EU, fine. Why do you want the bureaucrats in the way, Liz?

[@johndinsdale1707]

@@secretname4190 There are three time zones for finance NYC / LON / Tokyo?

[@jamesmason8436]

​​​@@secretname4190they haven't. Not even close. Like, not even put together and with every other financial centre in Europe are they even on par with The City of London. You must be referring to EU transactions only?

[@funny-video-YouTube-channel]

UK broke itself, when it became less relevant to the migrating workers from the EU. The admin cost of working in the UK vs the EU made UK less competitive for cheap labor.

[@emrskr96]

Welcome to my hometown. Hope you have a great visit. Love your videos.

[@kalekold]

In 1973 we didn't join the EU, we joined the EEC which was seen as a good trading partnership. We were forced to join the EU in the early 90's with the advent of the deeply unpopular Maastricht Treaty when the EEC became the EU and more power and influence over sovereign matters was devolved to Brussels. Most people in the UK embraced the EEC, wereas the EU was seen with scepticism since the 90's because no one asked if we wanted to join. We were actually promised a referendum to join the EU in 2006 with the further advent of the Treaty of Lisbon. That was shelved and people felt bitter until they could get their voices heard in the 2016 referendum to leave.

[@lili2u405]

The UK has more problems than one right now, but the same can be said for the rest of the world! Staying warm & fed this winter & next should be #1, without that, the rest of the problems can't possibly be solved.

[@Tgspartnership]

well said. europe is going through a lot of same problems as well.

[@smftrsddvjiou6443]

At least the UK has no natural gas shortage problem as we German do. I mean not high prices, I mean emtpy tanks.

[@lili2u405]

@@smftrsddvjiou6443 My understanding is that Germany will be ok as far as natural gas is concerned for heat this winter, but the real problem lies beyond that. If that is not the case, then the rest of the NATO countries should lend huge support, since it is war-related issue. If I were you, I would be making large scale preparations to rely on my own resources, just in case!

[@smftrsddvjiou6443]

@@lili2u405 Yes, I did. We fear Blackouts in Germany, or at least controlled switch off of power. And stop of industrial production to save gas and energy. And Peter is correct, this will be the end of Germany as the industrial power house of Europe, we will go the way UK did under Thatcher.

[@lili2u405]

@@Tgspartnership We ALL have to prepare for whatever "this" will become! It's doesn't seem good, at least in the short term! Prepare now & be safe my friend! Invest in canned/tinned food, rice, beans & solar energy. Whatever we put towards that is an insurance policy!

[@fazdoll]

I recall that just pre-pandemic Peter predicted the fall of the UK banking system, but mostly due to Brexit being so haphazard. Is this another prediction come true? He said it in one of his talks he gave in the UK. Anyone else remember?

[@thomasherrin6798]

No it isn't, Mainland Europe has bigger problems, but Europe will pull through, we (The West) just got to muzzle those pesky Russian's at present, so Germany and France better start pulling their finger out!

[@___Truth___]

Yes 👏, I remember, I believe it was a conference video during the 2020, he mentioned that unless the U.K. was able to form some kind of trade agreement with the US the UKs banking system would fail, but if it forms a trade agreement with the US it would at least be an extension of NYs financial hub

[@NightmareForge]

Yes, but these are all long term trends. He predicted the Ukraine invasion nearly a decade before it actually happened and much of China's growing woes. The problem with certain predictions is the time scale is difficult. How long till a process slowly grinds itself out? But the economic data for the UK isn't great, it's not catastrophic but it is slowly atrophying in many areas.

[@alan-muscat]

He obviously got that wrong

[@tzazosghost8256]

Sorr of speaks of not understanding what The City is or how it works.

[@fabiomiale]

Living in London at the moment, the situation looks pretty rough.

[@bighands69]

Same thing in Europe at present. Most of the world is like that barring America (whose minor problems do not compare). Truth be told there is nothing the UK could do right now and anything they could do should have happened 20 years ago. Moving UK industry offshore was always going to make the options for dealing with this limited.

[@ricardomartins286]

@@bighands69 Its hard in all Europe, yes. But Uk with pretty poor political and economical decisions from the Tories, Brexit and terrible handling of Covid-19 is leading to the situation in the UK is particularly grimm.

[@garhent]

@@ricardomartins286 Seeing as Germany is the economy that runs the EU for benefits and without Russian gas we get to watch the deindustrialization of Germany before our eyes, the UK staying in Brexit would have given the British a tax benefit to give money to Germany to bribe Southern Europe to stay attached. The EU is a dead organization walking. Would you go under surgery to attach yourself to a gangrenous friend?

[@zack6192]

Could move to Texas. Austin is like a mini silicon valley. Houston is a port city with lots of industry plus NASA. And Dallas is more insurance companies, banking companies, and world trading hub. For Texas tourism and culture there is San Antonio. I would avoid El Paso atm as all the immigrants are flooding in from Mexico into El Paso right now.

[@rndompersn3426]

There is no "rough" in London. It gets everything. The rest of the UK is like a colony in comparison.

[@ross-smithfamily6317]

I am curious as to the timing of this video - why it was made today - 10/3/2022. I love listening to Peter, but the British pound (GBP) has gained against the U.S. dollar for 6 days straight even though it has been falling at a fairly precipitous rate since late February of 2022. The GBP was around 1.3600 in February and dipped *very sharply* to below parity at .9596 briefly on 9/26/2022 before having a sharp retrace over the last 6 days to the closing price of 1.1319 at 5:00 p.m. EDT today (again, 10/3/2022). It just seems this video was a bit more relevant a week ago after the steep one-day dip.

[@RankinImagery]

For some who have commented below about Peter's participation on podcasts, he has been on with Sam Harris and Ian Bremmer within the past few months or so and it was quite an interesting conversation.

[@nedhill1242]

This is one of those clips that shows peters left-wing bias. When he’s sticking to the facts and real analysis and not letting his political bias get in the way he’s great. Videos like this are disappointing because he’s letting his bias get in the way of his objective analysis.

[@mrsog7468]

@@nedhill1242 He's dodgy AF

[@martinsevera7276]

Always apprecite your perspective Peter

[@throttlebuff]

Glad to hear you're having fun in the heart of dixie. I'm in Huntsville. Usually you're in CO and I try to figure out where as I lived in Boulder for 12 years. Bacon, biscuits and gravy and tomato juice for the hangover. ;)

[@fazdoll]

His home is near Colorado Springs, possibly Manitou Springs. That is, the few times he's home.

[@TheBandit7613]

@@fazdoll I'm born and raised in Colorado. I grew up in Morrison. I would recognize those hills in my sleep. He's in or very near Morrison.

[@tinkerstrade3553]

Two raw eggs to wash down a biscuit and egg dipped in green chili sauce. It may not cure this hangover, but it'll sure break you from overindulging the next time.

[@michigandersea3485]

@@TheBandit7613 That's correct. He has stated specifically that he lives in Morrison.

[@TheBandit7613]

@@michigandersea3485 I haven't heard that. Take a picture of the neighborhood you grew up in, you'd spot it from a mile away. I bet he's on the north side of hwy 74. The Bear Creek Canyon is a good place. Nice little pleasant micro-climate. Peaceful, (It used to be in the 60's thru the 90's) Now, who knows.

[@callroland]

Walsh: “Forget it, Jake. It's Chinatown.” This line from the final scene, which Walsh speaks in a sympathetic voice as he leads Jake away from Evelyn's dead body, sums up one of the film's major themes. Throughout the film, several characters suggest that Chinatown is a place to be avoided at all costs.

[@mklamo]

It's usually a hangover if he wears the same shirt twice in a row

[@ungrateful-66]

I was shocked and horrified by the GBP’s plummet, although I’m not sure it was or is to be used as blame of Truss/her gov’t, but partly attributed to what has amounted to a seemingly endless transition of global affairs internationally as well as respective domestic economies where wild fluctuations are the norm.

[@ivancho5854]

I think that the drop in the Pound can be squarely attributed to the budget being at odds with the actions of the BoE. The budget is politically populist, it could only be effective in the short term and burdens the UK with even more debt. It shows the ineptitude and irresponsibility of Truss and probably a complete lack of understanding how the current debt cycle will inevitably play out. This government's days are numbered.

[@alquinn8576]

it's funny PZ posted this after GBP already recovered to its pre-Truss plan level

[@amon_asentir]

@@alquinn8576 In what sense? Interest rates are up, and staying up. The damage is done.

[@Fishpasta4]

"The UK hasn't figured out what Brexit means" Welcome to the last 5 years of the British politics, we're all sick and tired of it. All the people who pushed for Brexit are either out of power or fled politics completely (Nigel Farage). Here's hoping with our closer ties to eastern Europe and the Nordics following the whole Ukraine situation we can work something out.

[@Fishpasta4]

@Bill W Oh normally went out the window after Covid, I just hope we can make the best of a bad situation.

[@ayetteyhadjor8834]

From Tokyo, Japan: Love these short market, macroeconomic updates! Thank you very much Peter!

[@nickbarber2080]

To say that joining the EEC "gave Britain a new Empire" is way off the mark...the EEC and later the EU constantly attempted to shift the CoL's business to either Frankfurt,Paris or some other unspecifed "Euro-financial centre" as yet unbuilt. This was tried but London managed to maintain its position despite,not because of the EU.

[@protorhinocerator142]

So true. Historically, London/Britain was always the pariah. Europe proper could never sand the Brits. Notably there has never been a British Pope, which was a contributing factor to King Henry VIII disbanding from the Papacy and starting the Church of England. In the EU days, Britain was footing the bill for a ton of it but France and Germany were reaping all the benefits. Just write us a check and then go away. Brexit may have its problems, but staying would have sucked. The Brits were done with the snooty Belgians telling them what to do. As per PZ's other videos where he describes the collapse of Germany due to their Green Energy foolishness, it looks like the EU may collapse anyway. Maybe then Britain and France can get together and form a new EU where Britain has more prominence.

[@alltv2689]

100% correct

[@spelunkerd]

The other factor is the way truckloads of dirty money from Russia have been cut off by sanctions. Entire apartment blocks in the high rent district are sitting empty, and the children of those oligarchs are in limbo. As painful as it may be, disengagement from criminal enterprise is more healthy in the longer term. That money came at a price.

[@FriendlyFreeSounds]

Well London seemed to recover fine since this video, it knocked NYC off top financial centre recently again, but they go back and forth each year. Still very pessimistic outlook that didn't happen.

[@spunkychops7484]

Pmsl 😂😂😂😂 are you on drugs. Name one thing that works in the UK? Austerity 1.0 and now Austerity 2.0 ....The bedroom tax, Cost of living, knife crime, Police stations, and fire stations shut down. How many A&Es were shut down??? Immigration out of control . Cost of Renting. Food prices 😂😂😂😂Schools are crumbling .NHS owned by American health care companies. Energy is going up 5% in January. We're in a recession. The Tories did QE of 780 billion and gave it to rich people and PPE that weren't fit for purpose. We owe trillions 😂😂😂 Are you living under a rock?? Or Just a Tory voter 😂

[@spunkychops7484]

The super rich robbing the middle and lower classes and the wealth being hidden away in off shore tax havens 😂.

[@incognitotorpedo42]

Britain has become a lesson for the world: Don't let "conservatives" wreck your nation.

[@dalecard9158]

Interested to know what Peter thinks about the importance of relative time zones for London as a financial hub.

[@smftrsddvjiou6443]

yes, I heard this argument. However, I think with all this e-commerce trading, time zones are less important.

[@protorhinocerator142]

London has created an enduring legacy by putting itself at the center of all time on Earth. Even the Americans aren't going to mess with that.

[@TrendyStone]

@@protorhinocerator142 And Americans love the UK. It’s like the parent you rebelled against in your youth but later come to admire.

[@michellegutierrez2119]

Thank you for sharing Peter ZeiHan 😊,and for the nigh sayers ✌🏻out …,.

[@kingdomcome46]

From Thursday to time of posting, Monday, the GBP has gained 5% from its low. The drop in the pound was in tandem with the drop in the EUR (and nearly everyone else sitting here in South Africa the ZAR included, all falling like a stack of cards against the USD last week. We're going to see a whipsaw on this when everything shies back, I have seen this cycle through several times in my career. My first trip to the UK when I was 19, I was able to get the pound at parity and had a great time.

[@allanhutton]

My concern with Peter is he often speak as if certain yet I doubt he has such wide spread knowledge for such confidence. The UK is the idea tac Haven and always has been.

[@patphatkitten]

@@allanhutton he has people collecting data for him. He is certain about some things , but he knows you can't control people , can't control stupidity of politicians. He is not always certain about timing and is even surprised sometimes. He loves math. Seems to be a mathematician and he has these mathematical formulas that he tests out, so that he doesn't get cocky and he gives his clients right data, or as close to right data as possible. He said this in a presentation once.

[@kingdomcome46]

All that to say that the temporary drop in the pound had everything to do with global market sentiment and the destruction of the gas pipeline to Germany (think UK exports to Germany and vis-versa) and about nothing to do with the budget. The budget got a lot of bad press ...but mainly from the polemical opposed press on the left. Peter should know better. Generally, the "real" economy of the UK is going to do better, the UK govt has positioned Britain as a freer trader and built strategically on its newly independent positioning.

[@sirrodneyffing1]

@@allanhutton "often speak as if certain" yes, exactly. I've seen just that in many persuasive, highly skilled communicators. They can 'busk' very convincingly, knowing that 99% will take what they say prima facia and not check; and even if someone does, their rebuttal will be carried way in the wind.

[@sirrodneyffing1]

@@kingdomcome46 Good comment. UK has quiet a few LNG/LPG ports that put gas into the euro network. We get our own mostly gas from Norway, some still from our own North Sea. We have shale gas areas, smaller, but 10 times deeper than the US but political pressure from environmentalists stopped it being used. We have too few nuclear power stations; because again political pressure from environmentalists; on shore wind farms where stopped because of political pressure from environmentalists. Every time the same story. Much the same as Germany I think? This energy problem is self created by idealistic political decisions and wishful thinking about Russia.

[@caleshtcincredibles]

I feel for you ! Drink some coconut water with fresh lime and you will be ready for round 2! Thanks always for your intel ! Cheers!

[@gerryjamesedwards1227]

Truss has u-turned on the most controversial tax cut. Whether or not it's shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted remains to be seen.

[@vinniechan]

The top line rate only brought in 2billion pounds which is the most inconsequential item in the agenda There are many other items which many businesses are actually quite receptive to but the media don't talk.about and I can only hope they deliver Its all whipped by market for ppl to speculate These sort volatility isn't uncommon in Asian or north American market but PZ did give a good explanation why its happening now When the UK was the EU it's less prone to these sort of speculations but now the market is showing no mercy

[@SpeedfreakUK]

I don’t get this mindset. People talk as if an election is next week instead of in 2 years time. She was forced to u-turn by her own party, it’s totally bizarre.

[@lubricustheslippery5028]

What think is interesting is that an extreme neoliberal/conservative budget with tax cuts was seen as something negative from the "market". Was it only the probable risk of big budget deficit and increased debt for the country? Or is also that taking from the poor and give to the rich may be bad for the economy if it is taken to far?

[@jamesw1659]

A tax cut is not “taking from the poor to give to the rich”. It is taking less from everyone who pays taxes, most of which, by the way, are paid by the wealthy. It’s not the government’s money.

[@lubricustheslippery5028]

@@jamesw1659 Tax money don't just disappear in a black hole as many in US thinks. So it depends on how the tax money is used. Before democracy and such tax was definitely a way to take from the poor and give to the rich some part for defending the poor from others that could enslave them. I don't think UK would go that far for real, so it was an exaggerate claim from me. The trend is definitely clear, the purpose for the tax changes was to increase the money for the rich on the expense of the poor. Something worse for the poor than taxes is rased fees that is more or less mandatory, because it will be a larger % of the income for the poor than for the rich.

[@ln6593]

Didn’t London have Russian oligarchs invest in London. It is a city known for money laundering. London also owns Canary Islands and British Virgin Islands. One of the reasons for Brexit, is EU requirements to be transparent in their financial transactions. Given the recent damage to the north stream pipeline that will devastate Germany economy and the Mercedes’ owning Cambridge analytica - I wonder if this was all designed by US as a way to dominate the west, while Asia rises. But I digress - Dubai is not that much different from London.

[@Crumbsoftotailtariansim]

Thanks for another surface level summary. Maybe address that “forum” where all of the world leaders go to talk economics my guy.

[@Sergio6726]

I like these short videos explaining how the world works so easily that a 5 year old could understand.

[@Minchya]

You just defined most " educated " people today !!!

[@jessestreet2549]

@@Minchya that depends on your definition of education. education is learning how to think independently. unfortunately schools place too much emphasis on simple rote learning by teaching factoids and the "proper" responses. then the student is awarded a piece of paper attesting to their "education" when in truth, they're just as conditioned as Pavlov's dogs. a relatively untrained five year old could grasp Peter's explanations. a conditioned adult may not be able to.

[@augustuslxiii]

Show me a 5 year old who understands financial markets, Brexit, dollar-pound parity, and the financial legacy of the British Empire, and I'll show you the future Emperor of Earth.

[@Sergio6726]

@@augustuslxiii I was trying to compliment the guy who made the video, calm your autism.

[@TheSulross]

the only thing is, when he talks about the inevitable collapse of China or Russia, is rather doubtful that either will go quitely into the dark night. There is where his analytics comes up woefully short

[@johnfranklin6394]

As a Brit, this depresses me greatly. As a Remain voter, it does not surprise me.

[@MrLukePierre]

I fucking love you dude. Good luck with that hangover.

[@rosanneshinkle4133]

Another jug of moonshine will take care of that hangover, LOL

[@Elroth999]

Peter rocking that Chad Kroeger look

[@nd15music73]

It's sad to think it's not the referendum on E.U itself which shows the issue of Democracy but it's the failure to organise anything after that's a real indictment of Representative Houses and the political party system. It's impossible to decide what to do when everything is politicised and there's a political party in opposition whose goal it is to undermine any real direction and plan.

[@maxpower3990]

If you replace a policy on Europe with a policy on climate you would have Australia. Our politicians spent 10 fighting and undermine and blocking anything the other side, or even their own side, wanted.

[@NonsenseFabricator]

The Conservatives have been in charge of the UK for the last 12 years straight. If they ever had a plan, they've had every opportunity to enact it.

[@peterdisabella2156]

I still prefer the indecision of the political system to the alternative. Id rather they keep fighting amongst themselves then them have free reign to enact whatever stupid ideas they have. Chinas zero covid policy is a great example the dangers of unchecked power.

[@PWMoze]

Once again, a fresh perspective. Not a narratieve you hear in the UK but probably the most objective and realistic prediction of what lies ahead for us. We are currently experiencing endless reassurance from conservative voices that say 'all we need is stability' while totally ignoring the fact that the BEXIT they all fought for, has been the source of all our instability. It is also, by the way, the equivalent of sanction ourselves. Subsequently our political clas seems onlycapable of making the situatio worse. We are yet to hear a coherant or honest economic philosophy from Boris Johnson, Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak and still we stumble on....in the UK we get the leaders we deserve.

[@MullicanDesigns]

Welcome to Alabama Peter would love to come see you speak noticed you were at Ft Benning last year also. I used to manage their web content. Great to see your daily updates.

[@tomschmidt381]

Agree Brexit was a poor decision by the UK. I know little about British politics but was surprised the Tuss government got in trouble so quickly.

[@fredbaumann3360]

I was born in 1953 in the the week of the coronation of QEII, and on account of that trivial coincidence and my 20 years of Canadian upbringing, I have always had an interest in that monarch, her life of relentless public service, and her undervalued contribution to the British Commonwealth and the wider world. Thus it was that Peter Zeihan's commentary today has special meaning to me, as I believe the hugely bad news for Great Britain demonstrates in part the immense vacuum that the death of her Majesty a month ago has had on the land and people she so loved. The Great Britain into which Elizabeth was born in now revealed as the United Kingdom, and none too united at that. (What, if anything, will become of the Commonwealth, a key priority throughout her 70-year reign is anyone's guess.) That the crows of global economy are finally coming home to roost for the UK and London's long-overdue official retirement as a capital center of enduring consequence in Europe should be of no surprise. The most impressive thing about the hand with which she ruled was its near invisibility to all but a chosen and extremely loyal few, and how rarely she brought it to bear on important matters. But while British politicians often dithered, she reigned. Critics of the Crown often express their contempt by asking what the British people ever got for the high cost of all the castles, pomp and circumstance. I fear their nation and the world are just about to find out what a bargain it was.

[@peterprocopio2192]

great historical context, thank you

[@markj6854]

The pound won't reach parity with the dollar in the coming days as the UK government have reversed the most controversial policy from the mini budget the 45% tax bracket abolition. The pound is currently trading back where it was before the mini budget.

[@jonshideaway]

🍻 I live in the Huntsville area. Stay safe and enjoy this North Alabama weather.

[@kinghenry100]

In the UK with Brexit we put sovereignty over GDP. And I'm glad we did.

[@guynamedowl1313]

In the UK with Brexit you put ghost pain over a lost empire over sanity.

[@rt0935]

Enjoy Brexit, the shitshow has barely started.

[@druharper]

People said Britain was doomed under Thatcher. They were wrong.

[@susanhammond6038]

What I haven’t got my head around yet is that the Euro nose-dived to the exact same pattern as the pound - and is also in free-fall against the dollar long term. I get that the budget had a big impact on the British economy but what’s going on for the euro to be affected too?

[@andrewj4426]

They have not raised interest rates plus they are affected by the energy crisis unlike the US, Germany already put out a plan to subsidize energy consumers and businesses by 200 billion dollars so their deficit will go up in the future.

[@ronmarshall7127]

It wasn’t the budget at all- it was the years of artificially low interest rates and QE that have caused inflation. The BOE is to blame. It is facile to talk as if the budget did it. That was just a convenient thing to blame it on.

[@TrendyStone]

The current FED is causing all currencies to fall against the dollar.

[@LC-sc3en]

I would expect a lot of things could be effecting the value of the Euro not least the war in Ukraine... global economy is complicated. Surely, the drop in the pound that has been falling for a while now has many factors involved too. Some of which are mentioned in this video.. Though the timing of a sudden drop in the pound alongside global financial institutions who are usually pretty ok with austerity (despite it not really working in a lot of situations) saying your budget is insane for the time and place seems and which only recovers after you scrap a decent portion of your planned tax cuts... can't be exactly called irrelevant.

[@themfu]

Yes, and that was part of the thinking around Brexit, that extricating themselves from the central union gov and then lining up direct trading partners would be better for the Brits in the long run.

[@patphatkitten]

Peter, drink mineral water or naturally alkaline water for hangover. Hangover means you are dehydrated. At least a quart for the day, or more, not all at once.

[@jeanlamb5026]

I have field-tested evening primrose oil capsules with a lot of water as a hangover preventive. I tried it out at several SF conventions and a couple of New Year's Eve parties and I feel a bit sluggish the next day, but not nearly as foul as I probably should have.

[@patphatkitten]

@@jeanlamb5026 glad it works. I am not much of a drinker. Evening primrose oil also helps body break down fats and use it as fuel. I wonder if that helps with hangovers, don't know.

[@jeanlamb5026]

@@patphatkitten I've gotten older and wiser (and mostly more tired...), so it's been a while since I partied like that...

[@patphatkitten]

@@jeanlamb5026 😊, I can't drink a lot of liquor, even when I was younger.

[@petercyr3508]

The term unfunded tax cuts is ridiculous. The reason is the pension funds borrowed money to buy bonds and the bonds crashed.

[@DavidSimpson]

Very good analysis as always

[@nandisaand5287]

I still can't believe folks in England EVER thought #Brexit was a good idea

[@Djaybird]

as a young brit...god i don't even know what to say. It feels like my future has been stolen by rich politicians.

[@Tgspartnership]

they have been doing it forever.

[@TK-en2hq]

That's kind of universal these days.

[@jimjiminy5836]

All for farages selfless fart dream.

[@thomasherrin6798]

Rich people steal everyone else's future, that's why they are rich!

[@jnucleo]

The UK's futures have been going down for 120 years. It was through the machinations of Churchill and the international banksters that UK remained a global powerhouse for so long. Downton Abbey series is a fairly good representation of the decline of the empire. You can't run an empire on finance and military forever.

[@pfeilspitze]

Nit: Brittain never joined the EU. They joined the EEC, but not as a founding member and only after trying to make an EFTA instead as a less invasive thing. If it was still just that, not the all-encompassing EU, they probably wouldn't have left -- after all, the had a 1975 referendum on EEC membership and voted to stay, with a population far less integrated into Europe than there was for the recent Brexit vote.

[@Ethan-cz8xq]

The Queen saw the writing on the wall

[@pohkeee]

MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN: the days of your kingdom are numbered and to be brought it to an end; you have been weighed and found wanting and your kingdom is divided

[@LaFonteCheVi]

Been saying this for years. The UK is not a substantial world power. It hasn't been for decades. It just gets treated as such because of diplomatic charity and the world not quite "waking up" to the fact it largely isn't all that relevant. It is a geopolitical lag. It's former colonies hold far more relevance and it was an assumption that the British leads them when it really doesn't. If anything, the UK is far more compliant to the US. Much like the world assuming that Russia was some greatest military power, people assumed the UK was still leading a shadow empire. When in reality it is just a heavily dependent Island nation propped up on legacy.

[@Bicimakina]

“There is no medal for fourth place”

[@normanstevens4924]

You don't win a silver medal. It's a consolation prize for losing.

[@junkscience6397]

@@normanstevens4924 Ask the bloke or lass with the bronze medal if they'd trade for WINNING the silver. Hmm???

[@TK-en2hq]

A net importer of energy that doesn't settle international transactions in their own currency isn't a "middle power". That's an emerging market. Great Britain gets to see what it's been like in Argentina.

[@aaronmarchand999]

A very complicated explanation for the fact that "locking down" the economy for extended periods of time and printing mass amounts of money is going to cause massive inflation and economic destruction a couple years down the road

[@junkscience6397]

I think you forgot something (ZERO INTEREST RATES POLICY enacted on a GLOBAL SCALE)

[@Lashb1ade]

Weird to be saying that Sterling might hit parity with the Dollar when it has already recovered most of the fall.

[@knightsnight5929]

Yeah, this month's fall, I am old enough to remember when it was 2.40 CHF to the pound, it's now 1.11 A weak currency is a sign of a declining economy.

[@DavidBrookes]

Southerners!....nothing but trouble!

[@teresamccartney1309]

I was born southern. Ran for the hills when able

[@drrtfm]

In 1973 the UK joined the EEC, not the EU. The EU did not exist till 20 years after that. The difference is not insignificant. The EEC was a free-trade zone, a la NAFTA. The EU is an attempt to create United States of Europe, which is a wholly different thing and never likely to succeed. The Yanks, following on from the entire history of English (and i do mean English, not UK, since it goes way, way back) foreign policy, uses the "do not let Europe become United, since it will become a rival to the US" approach. Understand that and you understand how the world works.

[@iksander70]

I'm in a bad place right now. Mentally I am fine, it's just that I am in the UK

[@chopsandarchie7015]

millions of people have colonised the UK from all over the world. IF it be as bad as you feel it is, the colonists would not come. The rate of colonising is what you should be worrying about.

[@thomasherrin6798]

Well do something about it like move, I am in the U.K. and wouldn't really want to live anywhere else, the government is weak at present (Truss is abysmal) but it will be corrected at voting time, we could do with a good long term secure government but that's looking slim so we better change them around a bit till they get the message!

[@robgrey6183]

@@chopsandarchie7015 People are swarming into Britian for two reasons: -It's better than the s***hole they left, it's a welfare state. -They won't (can't) keep them out.

[@robgrey6183]

@@thomasherrin6798 LOL, "voting" in "elections" doesn't work anymore.

[@LC-sc3en]

@@chopsandarchie7015 you mean immigrated. Colonization is a completely different thing. You should know if you knew the history of the UK what the difference is.

[@ReekieReels]

Britain could reinvent it's economy in the macro sense. That's what it needs to do, as it can't skate by as a glorified currency exchange any longer. It's also what it ought to do, having this many eggs in one basket for this long has utterly hollowed out vast areas of Britain, particularly in the North. The reason the British government hasn't done anything is because it is a system of, by, and for London. They've no interest in Britain because they don't live in Britain, they live in London, and London lines their pockets. Only radical change can reinvent Britain, that's what we want, that's why we voted for Brexit, and if that destabilises the markets, good, so be it, that actually aids our cause.

[@juliamihasastrology4427]

I wonder if there's an upside to Brexit not being fully defined. They have been dislocated from the EU economy and therefore have more autonomy over their financial policy. They also now have the ability to recreate an economic system in a world that is now in deglobalized free-for-all. I feel like all systems are going to be forced to transform, but Britain may have the advantage of starting that process early IF it takes the helm appropriately.

[@paddyfolan]

We have always had autonomy over our financial policy while in The E.U. Don’t know what you think The E.U. means or does, but having our own currency, and being part of The E.U. meant that while we had to follow trade measures and regulations, being part of Europe meant we got all of the benefits of trading with 27 other countries, and very few draw-backs. The amount we paid to be a part of the system was minuscule with what we got out. The idea that we suffered under the “yoke” of The E.U. is a fantasy. We were one of the “big three”, with all the unique benefits that entailed. Now as blocs around the world form to survive De globalisation, we’re alone having annoyed our allies with the belief we are better than them. Brexit not being defined is a mess. Businesses need rules, and ways to follow rules to enter markets and the Brexit deal organised by Johnson not only splits up the United Kingdom but also put barriers to trade. So we’ve no trade deal with The U.S. which is a market with 350m & a bad deal with 500m customer’s in Europe.

[@rt0935]

Clueless 😂😂😂 Brexit is economic disaster.

[@johnnevada46]

Worth mentioning that a lot of Russian money was swirling around the Brexit campaign before the referendum. The British Government has been trying very hard not to investigate.

[@chopsandarchie7015]

no there was not. The elite has never got over the fact that they lost the Brexit referendum. The UK joined "the common market" in 1973. Politicians being politicians, they could not leave it alone and have by using fair means and foul turned it into a new Holy Roman Empire of bureaucracy and ever increasing, sclerotic, central power. Honestly, a EU army FFS?

[@tez6693]

Don’t always agree with Zeihan but he nails this one. London is going down.

[@E4439Qv5]

My fair lady~🎵

[@dad_jokes_4ever226]

Nicely summarised the situation in the UK .... I hope Liz Truss was watching !

[@rogerwilco2]

Also, the new UK government seems to be very ideologically driven and applying this no matter if its a good idea now or ever, as they seem to have a strong feeling this is their only chance to get their economic ideas through.

[@thomasherrin6798]

Yes, but they are an unelected mid term government and in two years, out they go!

[@newsgeekus1216]

Wow, don’t let the Brexiteers hear that

[@zel3888]

I would have thought NY and London are pretty much even in terms of being the biggest financial centre in the world

[@alucardwhitehair]

New York stock exchange has a market cap of around 25 trillion USD. London stock exchange sits around 3 trillion USD.

[@smftrsddvjiou6443]

I think, London was smaller, but an interesting alternative, because a) access to the entire EU market (no tariffs or fees) and b) historical connections to the former colonies (India, Africa, Australia)

[@MonroeSim]

@@alucardwhitehair America is too OP wtf

[@zel3888]

@@alucardwhitehair market cap of the bourses is just one metric among many. There's more forex traded in London - about $3 trilion vs NY's $1 trillion - more metal futures, more derivatives of all stripes traded in london, it is by far the world's largest insurance market, and in some ways is more connected to the rest of the world than NY due to its legacy as the capital of the empire. Its geographical location allowing it to trade in europe asia and the Americas during its business hours is also attractive.

[@echoeversky]

In the Mortal Combat Voice: HOSPITALITY!!! FINISH HIM!!!

[@damienlewis1605]

Interesting perspective! Why is Dubai a global financial hub "if you have a lack of morals"? Would love to hear more of your thoughts on that aspect of Dubai. Thanks for the great work that you do!

[@David-dl3vj]

Probably for the same reason London WAS the financial hub of Europe before "Brexit"? It's easy when you can ignore the norms of society.

[@hififlipper]

They have a sign at the entrance stating: "no moral here, only money". Just look at it...

[@dofehino5444]

probably bc use of slaves brought through lies even

[@evphex]

I didn’t realize the Dumb and Dumber guy was a financial wiz.

[@bennwaters5851]

Your analysis of the pounds flash crash is not very accurate. The Pound, Euro, Yen and dozens of other currencies are all crashing because of the strength of the US dollar. Inflation is running hot globally. Last week had everything to do with useless government tax cuts and an exposed retirement fund sector and nothing to do with Brexit a few years back.

[@Jabberstax]

The US dollar became the global currency in 1916, not the 1940s.

[@guenthermichaels5303]

Excellent analysis Peter. You might add Oil money from despots, Russian Oligarchs, and offshore tax havens. Russians $ = Gone EU € = going, UK GDP was 20% Financial services. US$ is the only real safe haven in the World. BTW, I remember you predicted this a long time ago.

[@jeanlamb5026]

Yes, 'Londongrad' is no more.

[@jackbailey7037]

For many years now Britain has been London with nukes. or perhaps Denmark with nukes. But they have excellent PR with the royals, James Bond, famous musicians, the former Empire, Shakespeare, Winston Churchill, etc.

[@Gutenmorgenside]

Nice stories, full of sweeping assertions some of which are true, some not so much..He loves to simplify.

[@Alex_Plante]

If London declines as a financial centre, this would be good for the rest of the UK, because a cheap Pound will help UK exports and allow the UK to re-industrialize. Also London real estate will be more affordable for young families.

[@sophrapsune]

This financial crisis is not peculiar to Britain, though it is the one in the news this week. It is the inevitable product of energy market disruption and the failing USD monetary system, with strengthening of the USD against its trading partners. It is the same phenomenon in Britain, Europe and Japan. It just happens to be playing out in Britain this week. These same dynamics are sweeping through the whole world and will eventually play into the United States itself as it faces a sovereign debt crisis. The dynamics are now baked in. Hold onto your hats.

[@magouliana32]

Well in these type of monetary situations they usually start a war in order to increase production s d cancel debts…

[@ajc5479]

Seems you don't listen to UK news or even watched this video.

[@sophrapsune]

@@ajc5479 I just disagree with the analysis. That’s allowed.

[@ajc5479]

@@sophrapsune Well the financial crisis in the UK is particular to the UK and is addition to the world wide financial problems.

[@sophrapsune]

@@ajc5479 Yeh, it’s just a coincidence that it’s happening at the same time as financial crises in Europe, Japan, China, Turkey, Sri Lanka, Lebanon and (soon) the United States.

[@howelltaylor6774]

This contradicts what Mr Zeihan has said previously. Under Trump and Biden trade deals were done with Britain, Japan and a few other Anglo speaking countries like Canada, Australia. Britain is looking forward to reconnecting with countries like Canada and Australia that it was not able to do fully within the EU system.

[@neilfarrow1535]

I'd like to point out, that contrary to Zeihan's other predictions (Ukraine war, China etc) his predictions regarding the UK and Brexit have all been false. I would also add that if being in the EU has been such an economic plus for the UK, why did all (and yes, I mean all) our economic indicators get worse from the very point we joined in 1973, for years afterwards?

[@LC-sc3en]

What indicators are you speaking of? But either way their downward slump starting in 1973 maybe had something to do with a little thing like the 1973 oil crisis and recession and the 1979 energy crisis caused by conflicts in the middle East. Combined with the unfortunate timing of coexisting with and being continously followed for a period by Thatcherism. A monetary policy that, like it's parallel in the United States, resulted in poorer education, poorer health outcomes, higher housing costs, the destruction of unions, more defense spending, half the taxes for higher earners and more taxes for the poor and middle class, and the privatization of many sectors which used to be the purview of the government, and decreased regulation beyond a reasonable extent setting the scene for private banks to cause recessions regularly with mismanagement due to greed. It seems to me that a global energy crisis and the UK's own fiscal policy and governance probably holds greater responsibility for the outcomes than joining the EU.

[@neilthompson5740]

What a load of bulls**t

[@JMFAudio]

Depressing to hear this as a Brit but it confirms my own analysis too. Post imperial / post EU Britain is facing a reckoning.

[@apagoogootwo7552]

here in canada, i anticipate that when it comes time to replace the portrait of the queen on our circulating coinage with some likeness of king charles, most canadians will instinctively object without being able to articulate precisely why. but half of the why is all the stuff you've stated here; prior to the brexit vote, i kept trying to engage brexiteers in an honest conversation about what it is that britain has that the rest of the world needs that they can't get elsewhere. financial services? well you can get that in stuttgart, and you can get it in euros. sheep? NZ. cheddar? hell, i'd argue you can get finer cheddar made in ontario. britain has nothing exclusive, really, except Britishness. which leads to the second half; a lot of what makes britain british is the pomp and the grace of the monarchy. except that charles has tossed aside any sense of duty or grace or perpetuity of honour. the world loved diana, and he divorced her. in so doing, he squandered any value the crown may have once had in the eyes of a former colony like canada. if both the juggernaut of britain's industrial empire and the nobility of the throne are things of the past, canadians would just as soon see the back of colonialism by removing it from the back of the loonie. that, of course, leads us into the spectre of perhaps ditching our current form of government, but that's a discussion for another day.

[@grandpaobvious]

Please learn to use paragraphs.

[@smftrsddvjiou6443]

I guess, the Queen was always there for 99% of all Canadians. They never thougth about. Now, they do realize the picture on their coins has an actual meaning.

[@R3GARnator]

There is no reason to replace the queen on coinage, the figures on coins the world over are typically dead historical figures and it's not like her reputation has been tarnished.

[@TrendyStone]

I don’t know why Canada (or Australia) would still want British monarchs on their currency. Don’t you have your own home-grown heroes?

[@apagoogootwo7552]

@@TrendyStone well it's not been a question for a number of decades, has it? when we began putting her face on the money (long before my time), the crown had some gravitas and the british empire had some dignity.

[@vladchellew]

Well, the City has been making a lot of money for the UK, 5% of GDP as I know. But, at the same time, that flow of finance money keep the price of the pound high and that has an impact in exports, the UK producers have been less competitive. Will see.

[@himedft]

I will forever be indebted to you you've changed my whole life continue to preach about your name for the world to hear you've saved me froma huge financial debt with just little investment, thanks so much Mrs. Sophia ❤️❤️

[@vivianeverleig]

That's great

[@vivianeverleig]

So you guys still know her too

[@Michael-xe7xo]

I invested £5000 pounds I I received £54,000 thousand pounds within 7 days working

[@greatffgyv]

Wow I' m just shock someone mentioned expert Mrs Sophia I thought I'm the only one trading with her

[@greatffgyv]

She helped me recover what I lost trying to trade myself

[@stephanledford9792]

I seem to remember there being discussions after Brexit about a much closer economic ties with the US, something I thought was championed by leaders in both countries. The discussions at the time indicated that this had big benefits for both countries, so I am not sure why it hasn't happened yet.

[@rt0935]

There´s no a single benefit from leaving the biggest trading bloc in the world a few kilometers away from your country. Brexit is like imposing economic sanctions on yourself.

[@tzazosghost8256]

Sorry Peter, but while you have a point about macro trends and are partially right on the political strategy front. The business of the recent run on the Pound is a mixture of toxic rejoiner politics and currency speculators. In fact the Pound is back to previous form firming a classic square wave currency run. The overview that such speculative runs are slightly more likely in times of political uncertainty is correct. But The City isn't dead yet and I wouldn't bet on it. Strategy wise this was all to try to derail the new Reagan-esque style financial policy. So arguably the shift in UK strategy is now underway.

[@NightmareForge]

This is where I'd like to point out that while this dip is a bit of an aberration the pound was still slowly averaging down. Even correcting back to 1.12 that's till from the slow decline before. It wont maintain 1.12 even without these political shenanigans. To the point a slow decline of the pound is now accurate for several years of performance and I could continue to bet on it.

[@tzazosghost8256]

@@NightmareForge problem with that is you're talking Pound to Dollar and the Dollar is rising against everyone. This isn't simple because the UK generates Dollar income through oil and gas sales amongst other things. So bad old days of scarce dollars is thing of the pre-oil in the North Sea. Rather like the City and New York are in a near perfect feedback loop in finance. Mess with that at your peril. BTW the guys with money say were the deal goes down and if they say London, you say yes or look for another financier. Strategically the UK is headed to a return to Cold War levels of military spending, so don't expect this to go all France's way in future.

[@NightmareForge]

@@tzazosghost8256 Who said anything about France? Not me. Fiscal flight says otherwise. Right now if you want legal money you go to NYC and if you want it to be dubious or political untethered you go to Dubai.

[@tzazosghost8256]

@@NightmareForge Mr Zeihan however has talked about France in other sessions and perhaps seems to think they will dominate Western Europe again. As for money, those with it dictate to those who want it where the deal goes down.

[@NightmareForge]

@@tzazosghost8256 And they likely are, UK's future is irrelevant to that pro or con. Whole point of Brexit was separating itself from the EU and right now the way it was handled was such a debacle the UK is increasingly uninvolved there. And now outside money from the UK is not at any competitive advantage vs other financial centers. As well as cutting itself off from a labor pool which it has already seen repercussions for. But you've equated this as a UK vs France when the UK is going down this road all its own.

[@Subhumanoid_]

Drunk Peter - best Peter!

[@Casssen]

There is a very good Doku about the second Empire that he mentioned here on YT. The Spiders Web The British second Empire. The city of London will remain but Peter has always his points !

[@Casssen]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/pKHCqp-smJ2NoJo The Doku

[@Casssen]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/j3LFnXSHerOEnqc

[@Casssen]

I know that Jonathan Pie is a Comedian but Its fits in this topic

[@gusfarrow8271]

What happened in the UK is a bit more nuanced than blaming Brexit. I'd say it's completely unconnected. It's centred around pension funds which face issues globally, particularly in the EU. In the UK, pension schemes used to be defined benefit, so the company guarantees fixed pay outs in perpetuity. But in the 90s/naughties, this started to cause insolvency issues for companies, esp with people living for longer. The industry switched to defined contribution structures, and to deal with legacy defined benefit schemes, asset managers started to employ Liability Driven Investment (LDI) strategies using derivative swaps that used UK Gov bonds (pension funds principle buyers in market) as collateral to give them access to derivatives that were traded to bridge the pay out deficits. These strategies were born in the era of low rates, and when on Thursday, the BoE raised rates (a week later than scheduled due to Queens mourning period), pension funds started to get margin called. They can't meet these margin calls using derivatives, so the underlying Government bonds had to be sold off. Also, Pension funds can't speak directly to the BoE, so any messaging had to go through the banks, so in effect a Chinese wall got ripped down, letting banks front run these already distressed positions. The mini-budget may have caused some volatility (as normal), but the content of it was already widely known in the market. The top rate of tax was the only surprise and its impact in terms of UK budget is negligable. The timing of the crash was unfortunate, as was the Labour Party conference happening at the same time, and eventually the BoE stepping in. There are a hell of a lot of countries with equally, if not worse pension fund time bombs waiting to go off. The UK went first... potentially the canary in the mine. It was a liquidity issue.