Zillow DOWNGRADES Their Housing Market Forecast

[@CurtisLoew-q7q]

Question for the viewers: what is the largest one year reduction is sold prices for the US? Q2: how many years has the medium nominal sales price decreased year over year? Try answering without searching

[@Kurplode]

Q1 Great Depression Q2: 2007-2012

[@JasonWalter1]

Great questions and I would love to see everyone's guesses without looking it up.

[@CurtisLoew-q7q]

@@Kurplode nope

[@Kurplode]

@@CurtisLoew-q7q wow, I didn’t know Q2’s answer is longer than 5 years.

[@JasonWalter1]

Are you asking about existing houses or new home construction? I'm asking because data from NAR only goes back to 1989 but the US Census data on new home sales dates back to 1963.

[@ManInTheBigHat]

2😀 I see prices falling in upstate NY all over the place. Could be seasonal, but also there's many Airbnb places going on the market because the Airbnb model is falling apart - thank goodness!!

[@jonathantaylor6926]

AirBnB has never been tested in a recession. It had a good run but supporting leisure and business travel is a horrible industry during a recession. I think there are many "super host" that have 13 mortgages and very little equity.

[@adt422]

The Airbnb model is definitely falling apart in places like Miami. That will add to inventory.

[@JasonWalter1]

Thank you for sharing your insights!

[@TheKnuckleheadgenius]

Dittio

[@howietran5723]

Up state NY ( Orange County) here …. About to buy a bank owned home 4bed/2bath , 2000sf , 1.9 acres, asking $149k ( down from $249k 7 months ago) *** home needs work.

[@testallspirits]

Oro Valley, AZ. price reductions common. Foreclosures popping up too. Houses are still inflated. A 250k house bought 4 years ago, no updating, sad kitchen and bathrooms, listed today at 450k. Nobody in their right mind would look at that and buy.

[@kevinreichert3254]

A rate drop won’t get me to buy at these prices. To much money to be made in other things to put it into a house that will cost way more than an apartment. Not to mention the taxes alone being close to just the rent payment.

[@JasonWalter1]

Thank you for commenting and for watching the video

[@agentcrypto7741]

@@WelcomeIncorporated have fun paying tax to your overlord Newsom 😂

[@nadruik9890]

@@WelcomeIncorporatedin the last year my ac went out($10.5k) and my water heater went out(2.1k), not to mention the HOA increased $100/mo. My rich landlord probably hating life atm with my rent being $1300/mo…it’s making me very glad I didn’t buy the identical model in 2022 for 2100/mo

[@user-xg6yc8ho3w]

@@WelcomeIncorporated He'll be richer than the landlord because of investing in other assets with more upside and less downsde. -signed- * Your wealthy investor

[@Kurplode]

It is good logic. I rented for 5 years cheap which allowed me to buy a house this year all cash. You would rather people have a mortgage payment?

[@agentcrypto7741]

Oh wow go figure we’re going to beat the record for lowest sales AGAIN this year.

[@SigFigNewton]

@@WelcomeIncorporatedso sorry you have to live in one of those places

[@jamesosteen09]

Lower prices...sales will go up regardless of the interest rates. People (and the market) are just being stubborn trying to maintain these so called values. Homes went up 150-200% in such a short period and now people want to try and hold on to that. It's not realistic. Nothing increases that much in such a short period of time and retains that value. It was brought on by certain circumstances and those circumstances have since mostly settled. No reason for these prices to remain what they are. Lower home prices and the market would be fine.

[@jonathantaylor6926]

When you factor in the higher rates and higher prices there are homes near me where the monthly payment is up 250% in 5 years.

[@jamesosteen09]

@@jonathantaylor6926 oh I believe it. It's insane. Prices got jacked up because of a global pandemic and instead of returning to normal people are trying to hold on to it and keep the overinflated values in place. Then they wonder why are sales so low? Homes didnt just magically double in value people. The sooner we realize this and the sooner prices start to reflect this then things will normalize.

[@eviscerus1322]

It’s disgusting, because I sure as shit don’t make 200% more than I did 4 years ago…. The market is sickening. The only thing that gives me a tiny bit of hope is it seems cracks are starting to form…

[@jamesosteen09]

@@eviscerus1322 tell me about it. I was so close to upgrading our home right before this all went down. Third child arrived and needed a bigger house with more rooms. I've been on the sideline since hoping each year that maybe something will get better. It sucks because we'd been saving for years and as soon as we were able to make a move the goal line was moved and now we still cant afford anything.

[@jamesosteen09]

@@WelcomeIncorporated from many metrics yes (you said evaporated but the correct term would be spent)...thats why inflation and many other items have come back down. People kept saying housing inflation was due to supply, well supply has come back up in many areas and prices still havent dropped much. So with supply levels approaching 2019 levels and inflation dropping why hasnt housing responded the same as just about every other goods and services?

[@joelsnyder8177]

I know a few people waiting to list their house after the first or second rate cut and the people i know that want to buy only care about prices not rates so i think we will only see a increase of inventory not sales but real estate is local and im in south Florida and everyone here is cutting prices

[@ahealthyyouwithdoctornew9749]

I'm one of those buyers on the sidelines waiting for prices to fall. Rates are not the primary factor. I've recently seen people listing homes at or below what they purchased for within the past two years. What does that mean??? They paid too much!

[@joelsnyder8177]

@@ahealthyyouwithdoctornew9749 They probably bought at peak and didnt realize that property tax will go up after the first year and homeowners insurance has gone up also the cost of upkeep has gone up so decided to get out now before it gets worse or before prices drop and they loss more money

[@spiceyfrenchtoast9421]

Home insurance in Florida is skyrocketing

[@ebutuoy5088]

​@ahealthyyouwithdoctornew9749 good luck with that lol

[@mega408]

Remember: Don’t go fishing where they say. Go fishing where they go. They kept saying to wait to buy but they keep buying so I bought last year and I don’t regret it. 😊

[@aprilgentile5438]

Sales will continue to fall this year.

[@JasonWalter1]

Seasonal decline or more than that?

[@jenjones8353]

@@JasonWalter1 More than seasonal decline - in greater Portland beginning of major layoffs, Intel, Wells Fargo, Nike cutting 40% of top management and a list of others. Seeing more aggressive price cuts, many homes sitting for months now. Definitely a shift from a couple of years ago.

[@aprilgentile5438]

@@JasonWalter1 more than that it’s unaffordable for the average earner. People are not gonna pay current prices today when they know those prices have only increased because of speculation and FOMO, which is a totally unstable gain.

[@mattanderson6672]

Thank you so much Jason!! Always appreciate you and your analysis

[@JasonWalter1]

My pleasure! Thank you very much, Matt!

[@MaddieBr]

Sellers still have high expectations. One house with an odd floorplan, no staging (owners stuff) didn't sell, listing expired. Now back on market, same photos, RAISED asking price 7%.

[@AnonymousPerson0182]

😮 WTF!

[@christopherkelley1664]

Did it sell?

[@robnowe5464]

It is important to remember that there are many who benefit from keeping the RE mkt looking as rosy as possible including the gvt which was recently caught again gaslighting #'s (818,000 extra jobs)!

[@kimtruesdale712]

Good morning, Jason

[@JasonWalter1]

Happy Friday, Kim!

[@nealweeks6632]

My gut agrees with you and maybe 3.9m.

[@JasonWalter1]

I was thinking about it more this morning. Because pending home sales and mortgage apps are trending downward and with elections coming, NAR settlement, etc. my best guess is that sales will be lower this year than last. So around 3.9M is my best estimate.

[@durlov5]

Can you do a general update on the commercial real estate market? It seems like an interesting risk to keep in mind.

[@jasonfield7825]

As of July 2024, there were 197,509 homes for sale in Florida, which is a 41.2% increase from the previous year. The average number of months it takes to sell a home in Florida is four months, which is also a year-over-year increase.

[@bigrahizzle]

They will need to bring back 3% rates to introduce new sellers. Most people refinanced or bought at the lowest rate during Covid. Those people will not sell to get into a higher rate. This is why there are no new houses popping up for sale which is constraining the supply.

[@AnonymousPerson0182]

More homes are being removed and relisted a few months later. Homes aren’t moving like they did before, but prices are still too high, even with price cuts. Sellers are still being convinced by realtors to list higher than they should. I’ve seen more homes sell below listing, than above, and it always makes me smile. They all deserve to lose money because of greed.

[@BlackHammer0891]

All the folks bragging about their 2.5% interest rates are who I harken back too. They blew their chance to make a monumental come up 😂

[@PelicanIslandLabs]

My 'prediction' is for 4.02 mil home sales in 2024. Central coast Cali here: high end (>$2M) housing sales has slowed down a fair bit recently.

[@robnowe5464]

From what I can derive... the # sales as a percentage of the population is ~ 1.184% using population of estimated 345,426,571 (Worldometer) and estimated sales of 4,090,000 (your # and AI using NAR) is the lowest since 1988!!

[@jimmierand5559]

Tough call. There's the seasonality decrease in sales associated with this time of year, but then the possibility/probability of upcoming rate cuts may offset the seasonal decline. If I had to take a completely uneducated guess, I would say 3.9 million because of the recent release of pending homes sales information. Thank you for all the time, effort, and energy you put into your videos.

[@JasonWalter1]

I agree.... I was thinking about it this morning and 3.9M seems more plausible to me unless mortgage rates fall greatly.

[@sportsavant2937]

I still don't see home prices decrease in my state MA.

[@elizabethfriend2044]

When moving dont use two men and a truck. Their insurance is fake I have never felt so abused by a corporation! Everything in housing is not good right now

[@ahealthyyouwithdoctornew9749]

Thanks for the warning!

[@AnonymousPerson0182]

What does that have to do with this video? 😂

[@danielalonzo7445]

I live in affordable housing in Socal, and saving my money to buy when housing becomes affordable. My rent is only 15 percent of my income.

[@ebutuoy5088]

Lol

[@acamiln8354]

3.3% rent.

[@davidonewayticket3388]

Less sales by year end people are going to wait for rate cuts.

[@JasonWalter1]

I think a lot of people believe mortgage rates will fall when the Fed starts cutting rates. They may be in for a rude awakening when they find out the mortgage rates we have today have already priced in the expectation of future rate cuts by the Fed.

[@davidonewayticket3388]

@@JasonWalter1 yes! Thanks to your channel your viewers are educated on this! Thanks for everything you do sir.

[@JasonWalter1]

@@davidonewayticket3388 my pleasure and thanks for supporting the channel.

[@SC-sh6ux]

1:42 Homes are not keeping up with inflation. Thus they are already losing value.

[@s.k.6616]

Without deflation, housing prices will not drop too much.

[@mcmc7746]

Vacation rentals are about to blindside and crash the housing market.....plan accordingly.

[@JohnnyLightningV10]

Zillow is a joke. Remember folks its like big pharma saying take the shot its good for you. 😂 All these realtors are now economists because summer sales dropped like a rock and now they are scrambling trying to make other income😂😂😂

[@Boots_And_Slicks14]

Whatta surprise, Zillow flipped, again.

[@lydiaguimaraes7009]

I will wait a year at least . Them they will be cut in half Zillow truly a is all BS to me !!! Bankers no better and they advice to wait like in 2008

[@EmilyAllan]

Audio problems. Please use a high pass filter. Your mic pops on P's and any exhale towards the mic are blowing my ears out as a headphone user. Great content otherwise.

[@JasonWalter1]

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[@hyunhwahong5774]

I love your vids but hate your projections. Its almost like you are behind the agenda for the realtors and NAR. Most of your estimates aligned with zillow and NAR, which has been wrong and they did it to inflate the prices even harder. You should stop giving your guesses and keep it neutral on reporting the data

[@lockup6104]

🤙🏽

[@Steverz32]

TGIF!!! #NERDYFRIDAY

[@JasonWalter1]

TGIF!

[@insiteandawareness3500]

I won't buy at these prices and I'm going to wait for as long as it takes.

[@robring9847]

There is a thing called the SAHM RULE that has been 100% accurate in predicting a recession, The Sahm rule was triggered in 1970, 1974, 1980, 1982, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2020, and 2024. These years each coincided with a recession with the exception of 2024 YTD. In 2007 Dec we were already in a recession and didn't know it, sahm triggered in April 2008, we are probably already in a major recession but don't know it yet and have the biggest drop coming in the history of the US.

[@letsgobrandon911]

Until theres a significant price drop I wont be buying.

[@jaydeeare285]

Nobody cares. Keep renting.

[@ebutuoy5088]

Then you won't be buying

[@Leandros135]

More house for me

[@Steverz32]

1😊

[@JasonWalter1]

Good morning, Steve! I'm late!

[@professorprofessorson8795]

Crash incoming

[@ReeLSpirit]

Lol

[@nickc3856]

- every crash bro for the past 10 years

[@rob_h_se]

​@@nickc3856 If you look at other empires through history, typically when you have artificially high asset values driven by debt and money printing, the result is bubble popping... It's not completely out of the question.

[@Ja56780]

Dominoes are starting to fall 👀

[@genxtechguy]

Nope, interest rates will dip, demand will rise, inventory is still low … that adds up to housing price increases. Just listen to the video, but you’re welcome for the summary.

[@CurtisLoew-q7q]

What selfish fool wants a real estate crash? We are good where we are. If rates fall then demand and prices rise. Duh.

[@agentcrypto7741]

🤡

[@KD-yk9wv]

I guessing the selfish people who can't afford to buy a house and can barely afford to rent anymore because prices are so inflated. The number of working homeless is insanely high. Or the number of people who are renting with 3 families in 1 home just to have a roof over their head. Probably those selfish people

[@Ja56780]

@@KD-yk9wvlol, people who aren’t selfish want affordable housing and what’s best for everyone. Some people just want their current homes to go up in value and only care about themselves.

[@jaydeeare285]

They aren't selfish. They're broke.

[@CurtisLoew-q7q]

@@jaydeeare285 So why do they want 140 million Americans to lose equity just so they can buy a house? It is like all those loser students begging for me and you to pay for their education. It’s selfish. And the worst part of all is they will not be able to get a loan. Morons.