Zillow Housing Market Forecast Downgraded After Slow Spring Season

Episode #231
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Zillow’s latest housing market forecast shows a decline in home prices over the next year after a very slow spring homebuying season. While spring is traditionally the hottest time of the housing market, with more sellers and buyers hitting the market at once, this year was stunted significantly. Will this trend continue as housing inventory remains at rock-bottom levels, or are things gradually improving, with a return to normalcy in sight? We’ve got Dr. Skylar Olsen, Chief Economist at Zillow, on to share the latest forecast and which markets could be in trouble.
With mortgage rates still hovering around seven percent, homebuyers and sellers are stuck. Sellers don’t want to trade into a more expensive mortgage payment, and buyers can’t afford today’s median home price. As a result, some under-the-radar, affordable real estate markets are seeing home and rent prices increase, while some traditionally hot markets are already seeing price corrections.
Where will the next correction hit, and which markets will have the most opportunity for real estate investors? Skylar explains it all, plus why Zillow updated their recent home price forecast to show a DROP in home values over the next year.
00:00 Intro
01:41 Homebuying Sees “Extra Slowdown”
06:56 Homes Sitting Longer
08:39 More Inventory On the Way?
13:24 Zillow Updates Forecast
17:59 Markets Seeing Price Corrections
21:03 Hot Markets
22:27 Where Rents Are Growing
26:38 Investors, Watch THIS
29:21 2025 Predictions

[@sgpbnp]

I wish I could trust Zillow. But I can’t.

[@royanjohnson7648]

An organization that has contributed so much to the current housing inventory and affordability crises should not have a voice in the housing market. When their iBuying failed, Zillow sold single-family stock to hedge fund investors, who turned them into rental units. This shows that Zillow cares only about profit and never about the communities. Homebuyers should not support an organization that contributes to their difficulty in achieving their goal of homeownership.

[@grabthemappodcast]

This was super informative! I liked how they discussed regional variations in market heat, making it relevant to different parts of the country.

[@professorprofessorson8795]

Dominoes starting to fall….

[@FIRE_DrNinjaTurtle]

I am financially on a low income because of the information from On The Market. Best BPI podcast today.

[@JonJohnsonRealEstate]

Great vid Love this

[@tonyredemann2001]

I'm starting to notice some price cuts here in northern VA now. However, it's just price cuts on homes that were asking for a fair more than it's actually worth. Haven't seen a trend of price cuts yet of homes asking for it's worth and just ever so slightly under. They're also selling VERY quick. Definitely noticing some slight changes now tho. Great video, thanks for the updates and knowledge!

[@DannyHunt-w6g]

Ditto here. It's specific to the zip code. For example, Manassas 20110 I'm seeing price drops. But that area is sketchy. Fairfax city 22030 I'm noticing more listings. But prices are still high. IMO the only thing that would ever cause a significant drop in the Nova area would be some sort of major federal govt budget cut. There is just too much gov contracting gravy money floating around here.

[@tonyredemann2001]

@@DannyHunt-w6g yea I'm only seeing positive things in terms of real estate growth in the DMV area. My Realtors most recent newsletter focused on why he believes the DMV will see steady price growth in the future. Government contracting as you said, military with high bah that increases with housing area, people wanna be here, and one of his main points was lack of land to build. Pretty much the real estate price appreciation will practically be forced over the coming decade. Obviously some DMV area won't do as well, but the general area should. I'm honestly a bit more glad I spent more for a place in Springfield VA instead of cheaper towards the south. For better about it as an investment.

[@tonyredemann2001]

@@DannyHunt-w6g I also know a few families getting outbid by investors of upwards of $60k on homes in DMV. A lot of investor attraction and confidence. My hometown of KY is seeing $15k to maybe $20k at most over asking on some homes.

[@jfausset]

Without Fed or Treasury subsidy, loan volumes have waned. Shocker. HUD is going to join the HELOC game, effectively subsidizing equity withdrawals. Prices have to fall. Every real estate driven prognostication will be like Skylar’s “1%”. They need correction to be small. They’d rather revise than drain demand. FOMO is way better for nearly everyone on this channel.

[@PianoMatronNeeNee]

It’s not so much the interest rate, it’s the price of homes. It comes down to debt .

[@falsificationism]

Why the false dichotomy? Not sure I understand your point...

[@1138prometheus]

It's pretty interesting but a weak analysis because you like to look at the inventory side, but you don't like to look at the buyer side. Buyers also have life events. You assume that the people who are going through automobile repossessions credit card, defaults student loan defaults and excessive costs of a living increases are not part of your previous buyer pool when in fact most of them are the same people you are expecting to be able to qualify for a mortgage when interest rates drop one or 2%. If you followed the analysis through you would have to offset the increase in supply with a decrease in qualified buyers and that would be a much more realistic analysis

[@christinenelson1058]

If I recall my education correctly... in an election year the FEDS can't change the rates to influence an election. Therefore more often than not, in election years the FEDS will only make their last modification in Q1 and leave it there until after the election. (To assure they didn't influence anything).

[@JetJ321]

Lol

[@youtubecarspottersguide1]

high prices , insurance , property taxes , % rates ,lot dont want to give up their under 4% rates im at 3.75 on my investment property and 3% on my primary so im never buying again and locked into very very low property taxes

[@ezumach]

How can you be locked into property taxes? They are based upon the appraised value of your home. The value of your home went up, like the rest of ours, therefore your property taxes will go up accordingly. As well, your homeowners insurance.

[@youtubecarspottersguide1]

@@ezumach calif we taxed on the org sale price mine was $182k and $318k than raised 2% each yr I bought in 2000 and 2002 taxes have gone up over the years ,not the current value like other states where taxes can go up to market value each yr or when the county wants to raise property taxes

[@asiabacus3411]

@@youtubecarspottersguide1I do not understand this response at all. But I agree with the above comment, you can’t lock in your property taxes. Mine went up and then my home owners insurance went up causing my mortgage to go up $128 here in East Tennessee.

[@marksweeney5237]

*Its just getting started first Idaho, then Texas and Arizonia and now Floridia ..... here in upper NorCal inventory is up 87% YOY up 11% MOM* *Price reduction in our county make up 31% of the market......... not the time to buy* *Rates will remain closer to the 30-year average of 7.76% since 1971 and within that average rate we had never in this nation's history 30 year* *rates below 3%* *Las Vegas peaked back in August 2006 and bottomed around march 2012 nearly six years later for a decline of a full 62%*

[@dwj9099]

Trump 2024.