A Dozen Reasons To Be Bearish In 2024 (Not!)

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How likely is the stock market to have a down year in 2024? Since down years tend to be associated with recessions, and since a recession is unlikely now that inflation has been approaching the Fed’s target, and since the Fed looks more likely to ease than not, it’s hard to see the stock market ending 2024 lower than it began. … Our last Morning Briefing of 2023 provided a dozen reasons to be bullish in 2024. This first one of the new year provides a dozen reasons not to be bearish.

[@tomkk1000]

Thanks! Excellent analysis and depth of reasoning, as always. I wish more business analysts had the optimism (based on empirical data) exhibited by Ed Yardeni. 👍

[@guitjammin4710]

Thanks Ed! Have always enjoyed your charts and analysis going all the way back to the Wall Street Week with Lou Rukeyser days. Happy New Year.

[@bubingamakore3328]

Thanks for sharing Team Yardeni. 🍁

[@kp2718]

This is unbelievably good, as always.

[@meditationdaily1129]

Sir Yardeni, thank you for your information and analysis! Do you invest/are you a fan of S&P500 as a strategy (DCA) or do you rather pick individual stocks you feel certain about? Thank you in advance.

[@CNArea51]

Happy New Year Ed !

[@iskundi8027]

Love the boom brigade - doom brigade is huge and no fun

[@leestack]

Thank you, Ed.

[@timhollowood]

How do you feel about the Japanese equity market this year?

[@koltoncrane3099]

I’ve yet to hear anyone explain away the yield curve inversion and how it won’t predict a recession this time or why this time is different.

[@JohnDoze]

Thanks Ed, outstanding as usual

[@Michaeldotcom33]

Not sure how there won’t be a recession this year. Sure stocks will always do great in the long run but will likely not do great in the next 6 to 8 months.

[@user-tc7ot8js2x]

Take note everyone: this guy right here is why you should be irrationally bulled up right now. The average Joe Blow has had his mind made up for a long time, and he's in too deep.

[@MarkJensen-se8nn]

*Re: FOMC* ▶10:54 _good one._ Regards-

[@darrenhere5856]

the companies most directly affected by a Taiwan invasion are trading like Taiwan is a US territory...

[@demonridera]

The US economy is so financialised that it can't survive a collapse of the stock market. They have to protect the market at all costs. Money printer is on hold but will start up

[@user-tc7ot8js2x]

Russel 2000 at 4000 EOY 2025. Glad i share a first name with the king Yardeni

[@flaviulus]

Always in the market for another vest 😂

[@wread1982]

That’s what they said last year 😂lol

[@wills8705]

Hmmm. 52 weeks and bears are 1-0. I just can't see any upside to most large caps. The mag 7 are highly inflated and there's no room to grow, IMO. What upside is there really? The market has already factored in rate cuts and there's at least a 50/50 chance we don't see all the cuts priced in. So, bears gonna have steak this year.

[@phillipnguyen5428]

1st🎉🎉🎉

[@timk2896]

So the famed Ed Yardeni just said he would be content with nominal GDP growth of 2% this year with inflation at 2-3%. So he’s ok with real GDP growth of flat to down. Just proves that talking heads are really not brighter than the Reddit goons

[@YardeniResearch]

Real GDP of 2%...not nominal

[@michaelswami]

Nor are commenters.

[@timk2896]

@@YardeniResearch If Q3 2023 real GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.9%, how would slowing down to 2% in 2024 warrant a 13% increase in the S&P, which needs huge earnings to grow into the current lofty P/E? Especially when the lag effects of higher rates should slowly start being felt, as well as consumer credit card debt just rose $154B in 2023 to $1.6T. The last time CC debt rose that much was 1999…..I don’t think 2000 was a good year for equities

[@franciscoa242]

He is million times brighter than you and well-behaved.

[@timk2896]

@@franciscoa242 great rebuttal