6:05 Thanks a Lot for this. I love this lectures.

Physiolgists don't like this video. They cannot earn money in the case of antifragility.

13:20 - "...if you don't hang around economists, if you don't own Bitcoin, or if they ban Bitcoin..." 3 years later it is being discovered that Bitcoin network is growing via Power Law. I came here to better understand power laws because of Bitcoin. The irony in this in unreal.

This is interesting. To what degree is this subject to hindsight bias? If I move 2 points from the initial 100. At the top, I feel like I've found something great, at the middle, I may be skeptical, and at the bottom, I will avoid. If I am forced to chose a position, I won't consider the the bottom at all, and would spread around the top 2. Thus, for me to chose the bottom, and have better odds in the future, I must know something more than just the metrics...... isn't this the fundamental problem of approaching uncertainty?

Grande Taleb!

Beyond phenomenal intro to recent AI! Great intellects, great questions and great explanations. A very essential Public Service.

can you share the jupyter notebook?

At no insult to your age, the fact you're still kicking strong on these topics in your 60s is very inspiring. It's hard for many to understand where this comes from. While everyone has unique initial conditions, more should simply love striving for a life they actively choose to live until death, not a life they're only "allowed" to live. People should have a will towards freedom, not just ultimate power that allows unlimited freedom.

What is all this? I don't understand anything, what's the point of this, someone cares to explain..

Nothing is understandable in the video. We extracted some orthogonal components, aaaaand?..

Some risks are not detected with tail events, like birth defects after the vaccine, etc Also, there is a ton of serious side effects reported. There are the fat tail events.

RUM GREEK LENAGUGE

Promo>SM 👀

Horrible form of explaining

Does anyone know what software he is using here? Would love to tinker around myself.

Hello, new here, but wanted to say these are fantastic and greatly appreciated. Are there by change links to the notebooks he's using?

"this b would be the correlation". Non ci siamo, saresti bocciato all'esame 🙂

"here the sum or average, same thing, converge to a gaussian". Well both are inaccurate. The latter degenerates to a point, and the first one one has variance diverging to infinity 🙂. Something important is missing ... 🙂

Nice lesson on the convergence to zero of the mean of the distribution of the sampling mean. Make a lesson on the LLN 🙂

Nassim, just thought you should know that some pig working for Google has attempted to censor me here. have a nice day

$70k and counting. Thanks a lot Maestro!

so, I lack the technical knowledge that most of the people attending this lecture possess, but take this "Chat GBT" thing...say you were able to set it up to seek out and respond to other users on social media and you left it to operate on its own for a week or two and it randomly happens to interact with someone who's experienced in meditation and dream work. The experienced dreamer is probably going to know its a program because ONLY interaction with another human being is going to have a direct effect on the shape of the meditator's dream ( on the landscape of shared mind we are able to access when we're asleep ). Interaction with a program which is imitating a human user will have a flat or sterile effect on the meditator's dream because it leaves behind no karmic signature, at least as long as that program is operating COMPLETELY automatically without the aid of any human to direct its behavior. You can talk up A.I. all you want and sure, its 1,000,000 times better at math than I am but it isn't as if the ground we're standing on is about to disappear from under our feet due to these advances....the industry is always trying to make us believe that we're about to arrive at this point and that's complete baloney. . . copyright 2023 by adrian n. strickland

The lose & win being L, or identical seems to be the issue: The implication of L being identical means this is quite limited, because the L is not identical in most cases. Even if a company does go bust, they get to borrow and play another day, because the win value over time is magnitudes greater than the lose value. So only equal size betting, means it's less broadly applicable than I might have feared. Obviously I could be wrong in my understanding here.

I always thought that made no sense! Every ethnicity is ultimately a mix of something, so how can you fall into one category and another in different percentages? What a weird way of handling information. They do what sells, I guess.

I see nothing new here but a change of variables.

I’m talking during your lecture 😅

Maximum ignorance… 50-50 & uncertain myself…and not thinking of what the most common observation would actually be. It was win or lose? My observation

Thank you for the video. Shame on all the BS in these top comments.

Love it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Love it!!!!!!!!

Just finished your black swan book thanks for your efforts. I myself a options trader and i am curious on how you trade options and does it involve complex math that common people can't have access. Do you have any article about your way of approaching the financial markets and executing the trades?

Does everyone suddenly have an urge to send Nassim spurious social science research papers? 😂

Reminds me of that quote about the dog: ‘imagine a dog. Now count its tail as a leg. How many legs does the dog have? Answer: 4. Counting a tail as a leg does not make it a leg’. I think Taleb is basically explaining numerically this very concept. It’s the belief that calling something ‘low risk’ is the same as it actually being low risk. I wish people didn’t believe in words so much.

It seems simpler to start with a diagonal matrix and then apply a random orthogonal matrix. This would allow direct control over the eigenvalues. Much respect Mr. Taleb-I’m a big fan of your work!

What the fuck I don’t understand none of this 😭😭

2:35 you can always look at an economist for wrong definitions😂😂😂

"The central limit theorem it's what allows idiots to do statistics" - N.N.Taleb 2022

As someone with provable Sicilian ancestry and who has done both ancestry and 23andme, I can say this: Neither said "X%" Sicilian. Most of the ancestry on both sites said "Italy-South." Ancestry also circled the center of Sicily on their map (not eastern side) which is spot on accurate.

My bet would be 1 in 122 is deadly. The average of deadly at patient 61 or never deadly. So that's 0,82% close enough 🙂

Dear Nassim. Your discovery and your evolutionary tool are amazing. I have just started to familiarize myself with your work, but I have seen how the world and human beings can be transformed if they really start working and living with this knowledge. For me, the word "anti-fragility" has become "grace". and "blessing" and, of course, evolution. I myself am from the niche of fitness and sports and as you understand I have long seen the fragility of this system. And I was able to make a scientific discovery in the field of physiology. I discovered a model of human movement. And I also got a tool - an algorithm to use it in practice. You may be surprised, but the scheme is Leonardo Da Vinci's drawing of a Vitruvian man. It turns out that this is not only an ideal manual for artists. He was able to put so much more into this work. He literally showed in what conditions and how our body and its capabilities can work. It's brilliantly simple, and it gives you so many possibilities. All that's left is to pass it on to people and teach them how to use it. Then the world will change in the best way, a human being will get an opportunity for evolution. If we translate this to your discovery and apply the "triad" tool. Now: body maintenance, training, rehabilitation, posture modification, and achieving any goals related to movement. Fragile will be : intuitive approach and training on all current systems and methods in fitness, from weight lifting to stretching, working with a neutral pelvis, etc. ; invulnerable will be : only accepting or knowing the human movement model and applying it in daily life, or working on the model with a small weight or your own. And anti-fragile will be : applying the model and working with maximum weights. Which of course will not give fatal results, but if the conditions are met, it will give incredible, multiple results. Now I ask your permission to agitate and train people to use your tool. The opportunity to sell your books. By promoting your KZbin channel. And I'd like to ask for your help. I need a black swan to ferret out the charlatans. Who are feigning delusions and false miracles - fooling the stupid majority. I need media attention and public involvement. I need an event. At this point, I have a finished product to educate trainers/rehabilitation therapists/doctors and massage therapists/and answer all movement related questions. Moreover there are no questions left for all sports . The model gives answers to all morphological questions for each sport (i.e. what to do and what not to do to achieve maximum results, without doing anything unnecessary, leaving intuition altogether). I can explain what are dangerous and ineffective current fitness equipment. And accordingly I can create the world's best training machines, which cannot be improved in terms of biomechanics. In the future they will only be copied by changing the design. And further conduct info business and help people around the world to know their capabilities and learn how to properly maintain their bodies. I dream of working with you in a team. And I can dream about any kind of cooperation. My mission is to give people evolution and make them invulnerable or anti-fragile to any changeability.

Dear Nassim. Your discovery and your evolutionary tool are amazing. I have just started to familiarize myself with your work, but I have seen how the world and human beings can be transformed if they really start working and living with this knowledge. For me, the word "anti-fragility" has become "grace". and "blessing" and, of course, evolution. I myself am from the niche of fitness and sports and as you understand I have long seen the fragility of this system. And I was able to make a scientific discovery in the field of physiology. I discovered a model of human movement. And I also got a tool - an algorithm to use it in practice. You may be surprised, but the scheme is Leonardo Da Vinci's drawing of a Vitruvian man. It turns out that this is not only an ideal manual for artists. He was able to put so much more into this work. He literally showed in what conditions and how our body and its capabilities can work. It's brilliantly simple, and it gives you so many possibilities. All that's left is to pass it on to people and teach them how to use it. Then the world will change in the best way, a human being will get an opportunity for evolution. If we translate this to your discovery and apply the "triad" tool. Now: body maintenance, training, rehabilitation, posture modification, and achieving any goals related to movement. Fragile will be : intuitive approach and training on all current systems and methods in fitness, from weight lifting to stretching, working with a neutral pelvis, etc. ; invulnerable will be : only accepting or knowing the human movement model and applying it in daily life, or working on the model with a small weight or your own. And anti-fragile will be : applying the model and working with maximum weights. Which of course will not give fatal results, but if the conditions are met, it will give incredible, multiple results. Now I ask your permission to agitate and train people to use your tool. The opportunity to sell your books. By promoting your KZbin channel. And I'd like to ask for your help. I need a black swan to ferret out the charlatans. Who are feigning delusions and false miracles - fooling the stupid majority. I need media attention and public involvement. I need an event. At this point, I have a finished product to educate trainers/rehabilitation therapists/doctors and massage therapists/and answer all movement related questions. Moreover there are no questions left for all sports . The model gives answers to all morphological questions for each sport (i.e. what to do and what not to do to achieve maximum results, without doing anything unnecessary, leaving intuition altogether). I can explain what are dangerous and ineffective current fitness equipment. And accordingly I can create the world's best training machines, which cannot be improved in terms of biomechanics. In the future they will only be copied by changing the design. And further conduct info business and help people around the world to know their capabilities and learn how to properly maintain their bodies. I dream of working with you in a team. And I can dream about any kind of cooperation. My mission is to give people evolution and make them invulnerable or anti-fragile to any changeability.

Hate to be a pain but would you be so kind to put the worksheet in GitHub. It helps to drill into one's mind the concept you introduced in this mini lecture.

Hey NNT, I've been following you for like well 1 decade now since 2013-2014, in my 1st year as a grad student in maths (applied then but I want to go to pure maths now). And I'm glad you're still alive to talk about stuff. Please make a video or do an interview about Israel Vs Palestine. I see your tweets and see posts of others about your views but I hope to really see a video or something. I know you had an issue w/ Lex Fridman, but what about Piers Morgan? Or anyone else? I'm not necessarily big fans of Lex or Piers btw. I was glad to see you talk about COVID and I hope you to live to talk about a lot more issues for years to come.

Moocs are back, very glad

Ευχαριστούμε κ. Νικόλα

can he share code please or someone here?

raphael is a twat. so rude playing that music. your question is not important to annoy everyone with music

Friends, All you have to do is turn up the volume!

Anyone complaining about sound quality has not read Taleb!

He does it on purpose