Great stats and good use of informatics software (python etc.). Very much like how we statistically determine, posit and test holistic changes in gene expression as a means to predict gene function without blindly chasing false positives but rather make better, more informed predictions as opposed to a “hunch” or “gamble”. Anyway thanks for these informative and easy to follow videos. Any chance of doing an analysis of the 2023-24 Upper Deck Extended Series, or last of the flagship release for Bedard’s rookie season??? It releases between end of June, but might be delayed until August. Regardless, it would be cool to see the analysis of variance across one season (2023-24 Bedard year) for Series 1, Series 2 and Extended. Odds for intra- and interdependent hits across the 3 part flagship series. Either way, cheers for the work you’re doing.

This is genuinely incredible, good shit dude

Awesome video, we need one for 2023-24 Upper Deck Trilogy

Are your simulations based on hobby or jumbo cases?

Anyway you link your work? Thanks

Awesome. Thank you!

Thank you 🎉!

Hello, I'm wondering if you could do a 2022 2023 Ultimate Hockey? Thank you. I appreciate the video! Helps a lot!

MAF hawks? @9:55

Very helpful thank you

Do you have a web site to look at this stuff? Well done

this prod, manufactured patches and sticker autos

The Reds ROI seems extremely low given Elly and CES rookies compared to the ROI of some other teams. Did you just get deeply unlucky over 200 cases or is there something off?

where can you get this buyers guide?

Great job bro. The hobby needs break downs like this

Hey man, fun video! Keep it up! Hope you had a nice break with family (no pun intended). Question: how do you calculate ROI per hit? For example, the Avs autos averaging out to $504. Since in your simulation, you got 23 autos. Are you saying that the average auto from the Avs should fetch $504/23 = $21? Secondary values for every rookie but Bedard are low while other cards have been dropping in price. So I am just curious how you estimate these values. Maybe i am missing something...As usual, breakers in Canada are charging like crazy. $800 for a 1/4 chance to get drawn for the Blackhawks. You can't even buy Blackhawks directly from some guys. So gambling to gamble lol. Its also $320 CAD per box to buy this product from LCS...crazy times.

Thanks for all the hard work and the great videos, helps me a ton, I hope you keep them coming especially the hockey

thanks for all the work you do brah!

Love your work again! Watching on the subway. Did you mean 191 Bedard autos in the simulation or in the population? His Draft Day Marks alone are 210 (#/35 * 6 letters). Still, the simulations are great referentially between teams.

❤🎉❤🎉

Uhm

Good analysis , i will make a sub too.

Dude we need to chat. What’s the best way to get in touch with you?

Hey , thanks for the videos! Always helps me choose in my breaks I take part of! I know every time I ask, you say you are working on it! Lol but I'm wondering if you are going to have a 23 24 black diamond soon?

When it comes to short prints but the groups are not listed.. how do you calculate that? In the past I used cardboardconnection (they had the groupings) for my checklists but they seem to not updating like they used to and beckett does not have the groupings. Kind of hit a wall with my analysis.

I really appreciate you underscoring the gambling component. I know from my channel that ppl consistently confuse gaming and gambling with investing. Then they emote about card companies when the monetary aspects never align, completely ignoring the main drivers. But, just fantastic work once again. I'll try to usher some traffic your way tomorrow.

interesting video. Subbed!

So, which top 5 teams are the best to buy in a break?

Any chance you could do a 22 23 O-Pee-Chee Platinum video?

Congrats on 1,000 subs

Thanks for the video. Very informative. I have a question. How did you come up with the 100 number for each unnumbered base card? I'm thinking it's closer to 200 per player. I calculated all the numbered cards at a total of roughly 37000 cards and a total print run of about 58000 cards leaving 21000 unnumbered base cards or around 200/checklist spot. Thanks!

Ron hextall? Auto's?

Thanks for your analysis! Joined a few brakes, some Sens and one flames. Not sure if I can post picks in KZbin but will say if I hit anything big. One thing is the CAD ROI in the total product strength is off. I would be interested if you could show all teams ranked by the total number of 1 of 1 cards as per the checklist. It might be interesting for those hunting 1/1's.

Subscribed. Great analysis.

Nice job man! I have been commenting about some of the language used in previous videos and how extremely difficult it would be to actually make money in these breaks. So I like the way you are describing the probability to hit this one and the quality of hits. It's useful to see which teams have the highest probability to hit as this product has one card per box, half people in the break with get 0 cards (which we know isn't accurate as there often will be 3 of the same team, so 19/32 get skunked). As usual, I will say that breakers are charging $400+ for Edmonton in Canada. So you better hit hard and hit fast! Anyways great job with the video. By the way I still want to find some stats person to actually work out tangible probabilities (how many breaks would you have to buy to hit a McDavid auto or a Caufield auto with certainty). Anyways good stuff! Can't wait to see some of your analysis with of products with Bedard.

Great video!

Do you have a website to see all the data?

Any chance you can do a video on 21-22, 22-23 combined year of clear cut for NHL?

This might be the best use of Python and RStudio I’ve ever seen well done man. If only I was able to use these programs like you do while I was still in College😂

Aww man I greatly appreciate the shoutout but you deserve the credit! It's great you're willing to accept evidence-based feedback. Taking the old vid down and spending the time to quickly film another and getting it out before release day. Props to your work ethic! This video is spot on, all data looks dialed-in. Thanks for another great breakdown and analysis JT! You're probably right bc I have no frame of reference on this point but - the Highly Anticipated Autos are /200 or /300? The math I see is 300 but maybe not. I was estimating way too high on those. Where do you get case counts? After watching GP and Standing0's uploads, I agree with you 1000%. Also boxes look inconsistent af. Sometimes without a auto/acetate, next box with 2. UD could've added more acetates and sticker autos, 2-3 per box instead of ~1 avg. 1-2 less of the color parallels. Also, rant... How do you account for cards like the Pro Visions line which is unannounced SP? It is a carry over from prev years. See GP's latest video where he pulls it at ~3mins. Like out of how many could they be? I'm thinking they are at least /150 maybe 300 tops, not less than 100, per card. Small line each year sub set line of 10 this year it looks like. Probably one every other case if I had to guess. Might buy into a few breaks but that's whats the worst part I had to touch on; the breakers must be losing money nothing on this. The math I just did for some recent ebay sales is absurd, I feel so bad for the smaller breakers. With this and ICE as you mentioned back to back, I feel like they should've split it up with OPC paper this week and Cred next week. But I realize they have a lot of sets ready to launch over the next 75 days. Whos living on the edge chasing one of ones in this product!? hahaha

100% love the transparency and taking the time to correct it! Thanks for this analysis!!

@cazschiller thanks for your comment on the previous video

Just bought a compact box for $70 from lcs, 4 packs deep and I got a beam team Corbin carol. That hard to pull?

I did a 5 case break with the Yankees on Fanatics live a couple of days ago. It definitely paid off and the information provided in this video helped. End up hitting multiple volpe autos...

Just learned about your channel. This is great. I actually picked up the Braves for bowman best and sapphire breaking tonight but its more for Pc. This is some great Intel though

Cool stuff. Took the Yankees

I think part of the issue for Best in particular is that they load up on base autos of certain, mostly lower end, guys that are impossible to project. Like, a C level prospect may have x base autos, whereas an A level guy has almost none, and Fanatics doesn’t differentiate those odds like Upper Deck. Makes it tough to do this for sure

Thanks for the video. I just bought in for Arizona Diamondbacks! I appreciate the work you do keep it up.

Great video as always You are weighting this on autos. Can you remove autos and run simulator on hits with out autos? I target rookie QBs. So I only look at data on specific teams. Also are you going to sell access to your simulator? Are you open to talk more publicly or privately.