Great stats and good use of informatics software (python etc.). Very much like how we statistically determine, posit and test holistic changes in gene expression as a means to predict gene function without blindly chasing false positives but rather make better, more informed predictions as opposed to a “hunch” or “gamble”. Anyway thanks for these informative and easy to follow videos. Any chance of doing an analysis of the 2023-24 Upper Deck Extended Series, or last of the flagship release for Bedard’s rookie season??? It releases between end of June, but might be delayed until August. Regardless, it would be cool to see the analysis of variance across one season (2023-24 Bedard year) for Series 1, Series 2 and Extended. Odds for intra- and interdependent hits across the 3 part flagship series. Either way, cheers for the work you’re doing.
@TheBloomer552 ай бұрын
This is genuinely incredible, good shit dude
@SeanRenshaw-pb6xd3 ай бұрын
Awesome video, we need one for 2023-24 Upper Deck Trilogy
@twinsfan213 ай бұрын
Are your simulations based on hobby or jumbo cases?
@sportscardanalysis3 ай бұрын
Hobby.
@makster863 ай бұрын
Anyway you link your work? Thanks
@michaelm.97083 ай бұрын
Awesome. Thank you!
@bkj17963 ай бұрын
Thank you 🎉!
@bkj17963 ай бұрын
Hello, I'm wondering if you could do a 2022 2023 Ultimate Hockey? Thank you. I appreciate the video! Helps a lot!
@bkj17963 ай бұрын
I'm thinking of buying into a break, for the NY Rangers.
@scottyboy62693 ай бұрын
MAF hawks? @9:55
@danielkriefall58813 ай бұрын
Very helpful thank you
@krishdasgupta73133 ай бұрын
Do you have a web site to look at this stuff? Well done
@xinhuang98684 ай бұрын
this prod, manufactured patches and sticker autos
@sportscardanalysis4 ай бұрын
That’s very unfortunate. I hate manufactured memorabilia swatches.
@waruv4 ай бұрын
The Reds ROI seems extremely low given Elly and CES rookies compared to the ROI of some other teams. Did you just get deeply unlucky over 200 cases or is there something off?
@sportscardanalysis4 ай бұрын
Great question. I think the sheer number of autos in this product oversaturate the results with less profitable autos. You could certainly add a margin of error to my analysis. But realistically, its just hard to hit big. In the 200 cases, there were 29 breaks with Reds autos, equalling 45 total Reds autos. There were some Elly autos, 8 to be exact, one of which is Red Ink. The rest were 16 Andrew Abbott, 5 Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 8 Johnny Bench, 8 Spencer Steer. That's how it shook out. There is a lot of value in Elly autos, but with the thousands and thousands of other autos available, its hard to hit any one player.
@waruv4 ай бұрын
@@sportscardanalysis maybe it’s just valuation of the cards then. I think even eight Elly autos alone might equal out to the total case x 200 value, so that could be my bias. Interesting, thanks for sharing the numbers!
@sportscardanalysis4 ай бұрын
Believe me, I know. Im in southwest Ohio. But PSA 10 1st bowman Elly autos are selling for 1500-2000. Heritage is no where close to Bowman, let alone 1st bowman. You’ll likely see Heritage Elly autos selling between $250 and $400. I’m not sure what “total case x 200” means, but a 1/1 Elly auto could pay for a case. I agree there.
@SlabbingRookies4 ай бұрын
where can you get this buyers guide?
@kjmontalv14 ай бұрын
Great job bro. The hobby needs break downs like this
@sportscardanalysis4 ай бұрын
Thank you!
@Millicurie5514 ай бұрын
Hey man, fun video! Keep it up! Hope you had a nice break with family (no pun intended). Question: how do you calculate ROI per hit? For example, the Avs autos averaging out to $504. Since in your simulation, you got 23 autos. Are you saying that the average auto from the Avs should fetch $504/23 = $21? Secondary values for every rookie but Bedard are low while other cards have been dropping in price. So I am just curious how you estimate these values. Maybe i am missing something...As usual, breakers in Canada are charging like crazy. $800 for a 1/4 chance to get drawn for the Blackhawks. You can't even buy Blackhawks directly from some guys. So gambling to gamble lol. Its also $320 CAD per box to buy this product from LCS...crazy times.
@sportscardanalysis4 ай бұрын
The Average return on investment is calculated by adding all the values together, then dividing by the number of items. The 23 you are referencing is the number of cases there were Avalanche autos in. There were 2 cases with multiple Avalanche autos and 21 with one, totaling 25 av autos. The sum of all auto values for the Avalanche is $12618.52 (USD) 12618.52 divided by 25 = 504.74 So what I am saying here is that 23 cases yielded an average Avalanche return of $504.74 per case with one or more successful Avalanche "hit"
@SeanRenshaw-pb6xd4 ай бұрын
Thanks for all the hard work and the great videos, helps me a ton, I hope you keep them coming especially the hockey
@sportscardanalysis4 ай бұрын
Thank you!
@yukoncorneliusthelegendhim97514 ай бұрын
thanks for all the work you do brah!
@sportscardanalysis4 ай бұрын
No problem 👍
@Fultoncards4 ай бұрын
Love your work again! Watching on the subway. Did you mean 191 Bedard autos in the simulation or in the population? His Draft Day Marks alone are 210 (#/35 * 6 letters). Still, the simulations are great referentially between teams.
@sportscardanalysis4 ай бұрын
Ah dang. Terrible oversight on my part. Crap. I reran the analysis and some things wound up a little different. Here are the updated ROI top 10. Thanks for pointing this out. Return on Investment (ROI) for 200 Breaks by Team (TOP 10) TEAM NAME | AVG ROI PER CASE FOR 200 CASES | CAD AVG ROI PER CASE FOR 200 CASES | FULL PRODUCT STRENGTH Chicago Blackhawks | 156.58 | 211.38 | 2 Boston Bruins | 137.72 | 185.92 | 7 Edmonton Oilers | 112.76 | 152.23 | 8 Buffalo Sabres | 102.12 | 137.86 | 1 Pittsburgh Penguins | 79.35 | 107.12 | 14 Colorado Avalanche | 71.94 | 97.12 | 15 Toronto Maple Leafs | 51.92 | 70.09 | 11 Seattle Kraken | 50.23 | 67.81 | 18 New Jersey Devils | 49.7 | 67.1 | 17 Detroit Red Wings | 41.31 | 55.77 | 5 Average by Only Cases Containing Hits (out of 200 simulated breaks) (TOP 10) TEAM NAME | HIT TYPE | AVG ROI WHEN HIT | CAD AVG ROI WHEN HIT | NUMBER OF CASES WITH HITS Colorado Avalanche | Autographs | $504.74 | $681.4 | 23 Edmonton Oilers | Autographs | $374.34 | $505.36 | 64 Buffalo Sabres | Autographs | $247.72 | $334.42 | 118 Carolina Hurricanes | Autographs | $190.42 | $257.07 | 43 New Jersey Devils | Autographs | $154.85 | $209.05 | 64 Seattle Kraken | Autographs | $148.01 | $199.81 | 93 Chicago Blackhawks | Autographs | $142.94 | $192.97 | 133 Edmonton Oilers | Memorabilia | $141.31 | $190.77 | 138 Pittsburgh Penguins | Autographs | $140.17 | $189.23 | 40 Toronto Maple Leafs | Autographs | $138.18 | $186.54 | 72
@Fultoncards4 ай бұрын
@@sportscardanalysis Wow I really appreciate the update. Again, great work. I know it's not an exact science.
@bkj17964 ай бұрын
❤🎉❤🎉
@bkj17964 ай бұрын
Uhm
@getheof7005 ай бұрын
Good analysis , i will make a sub too.
@sportscardanalysis4 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@jdssportscards5 ай бұрын
Dude we need to chat. What’s the best way to get in touch with you?
@bkj17965 ай бұрын
Hey , thanks for the videos! Always helps me choose in my breaks I take part of! I know every time I ask, you say you are working on it! Lol but I'm wondering if you are going to have a 23 24 black diamond soon?
@sportscardanalysis4 ай бұрын
I checked a week ago for the Black Diamond checklist and didn't see it. Have you seen it posted anywhere?
@bkj17964 ай бұрын
I think it just came out yesterday!?
@TtkxAddictions5 ай бұрын
When it comes to short prints but the groups are not listed.. how do you calculate that? In the past I used cardboardconnection (they had the groupings) for my checklists but they seem to not updating like they used to and beckett does not have the groupings. Kind of hit a wall with my analysis.
@sportscardanalysis5 ай бұрын
Becket does have the SP and SSP autos called out. Not sure about the base and parallels. If there are hidden SPs in the base set, they are not accounted for unfortunately
@Fultoncards5 ай бұрын
I really appreciate you underscoring the gambling component. I know from my channel that ppl consistently confuse gaming and gambling with investing. Then they emote about card companies when the monetary aspects never align, completely ignoring the main drivers. But, just fantastic work once again. I'll try to usher some traffic your way tomorrow.
@sportscardanalysis5 ай бұрын
It’s a slippery slope with many addicts losing lots of money. For every boom, there’s dozens of busts. I started this channel because of this very fact. I bought a lot of boxes and wasn’t seeing the return. When I stepped back and analyzed the risk, I realized I was a fool. Breaks reduce the risk, which makes it a better gamble, but it’s still a gamble Please link my videos in your descriptions. I appreciate you mentioning my channel, but with the amount of my content that you cover, I’d appreciate being linked.
@mtbright065 ай бұрын
interesting video. Subbed!
@sportscardanalysis5 ай бұрын
Awesome, thank you!
@rwbteam74685 ай бұрын
So, which top 5 teams are the best to buy in a break?
@bkj17966 ай бұрын
Any chance you could do a 22 23 O-Pee-Chee Platinum video?
@andyscardhaven1636 ай бұрын
Congrats on 1,000 subs
@waynetrain9996 ай бұрын
Thanks for the video. Very informative. I have a question. How did you come up with the 100 number for each unnumbered base card? I'm thinking it's closer to 200 per player. I calculated all the numbered cards at a total of roughly 37000 cards and a total print run of about 58000 cards leaving 21000 unnumbered base cards or around 200/checklist spot. Thanks!
@sportscardanalysis6 ай бұрын
Great question and I appreciate the view and comment. Maybe I missed a key detail somewhere (which happens more than I wish it would). Where are you seeing 58,000 assessed print run? I didn't see anything that indicated that. What I did in lieu of that info was watched some prior Five Star breaks and figured out how and when base autos were injected into packs. It seems like there were between 8-12 base plus base parallels per case. From there I looked at how these would match against non-base and base parallels in building cases and settled on 100, assuming that some players would have more and some would have less. By setting the base autos to /100 and assuming 8 base and/or base parallels per case, the rough case count is ~6,000. I liked that round number and went with it. Not a very scientific conclusion, but the build up was fun.
@waynetrain9996 ай бұрын
@@sportscardanalysis I looked at the 1/1 odds and multiplied it out. Like the 1/1 celebrity cut signatures 10 cards, 1:2921 packs, 2 cards per pack 10*2921*2= 58420 Some of the 1/1 calculations are a little higher than 60,000 but most are around 58000 or 59000... They definitely do different amounts of base cards for different guys. I'm sure some of the cheaper rookies have like 400 print runs and the more expensive guys would be way less.... Interesting stuff!
@bkj17966 ай бұрын
Ron hextall? Auto's?
@girishsimmonds4746 ай бұрын
Thanks for your analysis! Joined a few brakes, some Sens and one flames. Not sure if I can post picks in KZbin but will say if I hit anything big. One thing is the CAD ROI in the total product strength is off. I would be interested if you could show all teams ranked by the total number of 1 of 1 cards as per the checklist. It might be interesting for those hunting 1/1's.
@sportscardanalysis6 ай бұрын
Oh no, you're right, the Canadian conversion is off on that table. Thanks for pointing that out. Looking back at the code, I accidentally calculated the Canadian exchange rate before having the full US ROI calculated, resulting in an incomplete calculation. Sorry about that
@shanewall83006 ай бұрын
Subscribed. Great analysis.
@Millicurie5516 ай бұрын
Nice job man! I have been commenting about some of the language used in previous videos and how extremely difficult it would be to actually make money in these breaks. So I like the way you are describing the probability to hit this one and the quality of hits. It's useful to see which teams have the highest probability to hit as this product has one card per box, half people in the break with get 0 cards (which we know isn't accurate as there often will be 3 of the same team, so 19/32 get skunked). As usual, I will say that breakers are charging $400+ for Edmonton in Canada. So you better hit hard and hit fast! Anyways great job with the video. By the way I still want to find some stats person to actually work out tangible probabilities (how many breaks would you have to buy to hit a McDavid auto or a Caufield auto with certainty). Anyways good stuff! Can't wait to see some of your analysis with of products with Bedard.
@sportscardanalysis6 ай бұрын
I've been a little busy lately, but I do intend on adding some probability metrics in eventually. Great comment and thanks again for the thorough review
@Pepperoni246 ай бұрын
Great video!
@sportscardanalysis6 ай бұрын
Thanks Pepperoni!
@newdaynewdrink6 ай бұрын
Do you have a website to see all the data?
@sportscardanalysis6 ай бұрын
Working on one. It’s been slow, but I’m nearly done with the display of my data forms shown here. I’m also trying to code in the simulator so people can use it
@newdaynewdrink6 ай бұрын
@@sportscardanalysisdo you have Twitter or instagram? Think your name and work should be out there and could really impact the hobby community if more were aware
@cameronmckenzie73046 ай бұрын
Any chance you can do a video on 21-22, 22-23 combined year of clear cut for NHL?
@sportscardanalysis6 ай бұрын
Yep. If I’m seeing this right, it comes out on the 14th. I’ll have that video hopefully end of this week or this weekend
@blaze69456 ай бұрын
This might be the best use of Python and RStudio I’ve ever seen well done man. If only I was able to use these programs like you do while I was still in College😂
@cazschiller6 ай бұрын
Aww man I greatly appreciate the shoutout but you deserve the credit! It's great you're willing to accept evidence-based feedback. Taking the old vid down and spending the time to quickly film another and getting it out before release day. Props to your work ethic! This video is spot on, all data looks dialed-in. Thanks for another great breakdown and analysis JT! You're probably right bc I have no frame of reference on this point but - the Highly Anticipated Autos are /200 or /300? The math I see is 300 but maybe not. I was estimating way too high on those. Where do you get case counts? After watching GP and Standing0's uploads, I agree with you 1000%. Also boxes look inconsistent af. Sometimes without a auto/acetate, next box with 2. UD could've added more acetates and sticker autos, 2-3 per box instead of ~1 avg. 1-2 less of the color parallels. Also, rant... How do you account for cards like the Pro Visions line which is unannounced SP? It is a carry over from prev years. See GP's latest video where he pulls it at ~3mins. Like out of how many could they be? I'm thinking they are at least /150 maybe 300 tops, not less than 100, per card. Small line each year sub set line of 10 this year it looks like. Probably one every other case if I had to guess. Might buy into a few breaks but that's whats the worst part I had to touch on; the breakers must be losing money nothing on this. The math I just did for some recent ebay sales is absurd, I feel so bad for the smaller breakers. With this and ICE as you mentioned back to back, I feel like they should've split it up with OPC paper this week and Cred next week. But I realize they have a lot of sets ready to launch over the next 75 days. Whos living on the edge chasing one of ones in this product!? hahaha
@sportscardanalysis6 ай бұрын
Hey sorry for the delayed response, I got really busy at work. I had highly anticipated at /170 from the pack odds math, but wound up increasing it in the simulation slightly due to what they claimed per hobby box. For the unannounced, I can’t anticipate it. So there’s a margin of error there. Luckily SPs are so limited that they don’t really affect the analysis much.
@mikeleonard85216 ай бұрын
100% love the transparency and taking the time to correct it! Thanks for this analysis!!
@sportscardanalysis6 ай бұрын
Thanks, I want people to trust me, and that takes effort. I hope transparency helps with that
@sportscardanalysis6 ай бұрын
@cazschiller thanks for your comment on the previous video
@cazschiller6 ай бұрын
My pleasure, keep up the good work!
@Kidfromthemidwest6 ай бұрын
Just bought a compact box for $70 from lcs, 4 packs deep and I got a beam team Corbin carol. That hard to pull?
@sportscardanalysis6 ай бұрын
Well Beam Team cards are 1 per box, so somewhat rare. Corbin Carroll is a good one to hit
@Kidfromthemidwest6 ай бұрын
@@sportscardanalysis 1/30 Mariano Rivera pearl chrome!
@andyscardhaven1637 ай бұрын
I did a 5 case break with the Yankees on Fanatics live a couple of days ago. It definitely paid off and the information provided in this video helped. End up hitting multiple volpe autos...
@sportscardanalysis7 ай бұрын
This is incredible feedback and exactly what I hoped for. If I can help consumers, then I consider it "mission accomplished". Thank you so much for returning to reveal your results. I really appreciate the viewership and the feedback
@andyscardhaven1637 ай бұрын
@@sportscardanalysis No problem. The volume of cards I got was unreal. Hit a total of like 16 autos too.
@sportscardanalysis7 ай бұрын
Damn!!
@legacysportscards70457 ай бұрын
Just learned about your channel. This is great. I actually picked up the Braves for bowman best and sapphire breaking tonight but its more for Pc. This is some great Intel though
@legacysportscards70457 ай бұрын
@@sportscardanalysis so it was 14 case of sapphire 2023 draft. I had Braves players and lot. Jackson chourio and Paul Skenes. All in about 1k I hit a black out of 10 prospect for Braves. Mostly base for Braves and chourio Big hit was Green auto / 99 for Skenes. Looks pretty sharp. Will arrive this week I did pick up Skenes again for their 4 case bowman best jumbo nut waiting to fill. Might scoop Braves again but depends. Quit pricey
@andyscardhaven1637 ай бұрын
Cool stuff. Took the Yankees
@sportscardanalysis7 ай бұрын
Thanks! Good luck
@waruv7 ай бұрын
I think part of the issue for Best in particular is that they load up on base autos of certain, mostly lower end, guys that are impossible to project. Like, a C level prospect may have x base autos, whereas an A level guy has almost none, and Fanatics doesn’t differentiate those odds like Upper Deck. Makes it tough to do this for sure
@sportscardanalysis7 ай бұрын
Great point. Like you mentioned, Upper Deck does this a lot and includes different pack odds for different levels of players and I love that they do that. I agree that the distribution of quality is varied between set types. Its frustrating and I have to make some assumptions, but largely I think the print runs aren't widely different within the same set. There's not really any way to account for this, so I just assume its equal. If you have any ways you'd like me to try and show this disparity, I'd love to hear ideas.
@waruv7 ай бұрын
@@sportscardanalysis I'll be honest I don't think you can really show the discrepancy without real life data, and your broad strokes are still sound (Yankees, M's, and Dodgers all do great with several good prospects with great pull rates). I can say though that the mega prospects and rookies propping up Baltimore, Texas, and Boston are very tough hits - tougher than the raw odds suggest. I think I saw one Salas, one Anthony, one Clark, and one Langford auto over ten cases vs 5+ of several more middling prospects - purely base and base parallel autos not even considering inserts. Rookie autos felt like 1-2 a case (no Gunnar or Adley, in fact I don't even think non numbered autos of them exist in non inserts ). None of this we can know but I think it makes sense for folks to take your exceptional data and then look at some break recaps and see how it aligns. I've found your info to feel right often and on teams that don't rely on a couple massive names it works here too. I'd much rather drop my money on the Yankees than Sox for instance and I'm a Sox fan! Your method is sound, don't change a thing, just a caution for folks that Fanatics and Panini don't tell us that there may be 20 Kenni Gomez autos for every Tommy Troy and we can't know til others find out.
@ives61977 ай бұрын
Thanks for the video. I just bought in for Arizona Diamondbacks! I appreciate the work you do keep it up.
@sportscardanalysis7 ай бұрын
Thank you so much! Arizona is a good one in this product Good luck in your breaks. Drop back in to share your hits
@ZiggyNo7 ай бұрын
Great video as always You are weighting this on autos. Can you remove autos and run simulator on hits with out autos? I target rookie QBs. So I only look at data on specific teams. Also are you going to sell access to your simulator? Are you open to talk more publicly or privately.
@sportscardanalysis7 ай бұрын
Thanks Ziggy! I can look at the rookie qbs for sure. Let me get back to you on that. I’ll paste it in the replies when I have something. Might take some work to filter I am building a webpage that I am constructing the simulation tool into, but I’ve been distracted with work projects lately. I’m excited about that tool hopefully coming in spring
@ZiggyNo7 ай бұрын
@@sportscardanalysis Do you need help? What can I do? Would really like to chat live. So much to say. LOVE THIS and THANK YOU
@sportscardanalysis7 ай бұрын
Nope, I can take care of it. I really REALLY appreciate the offer. I am looking forward to making the website/tool myself as another achievement in this journey. This has been fun to grow and hear from the community, who are all so willing to help. I will for sure reach out if I need it