2023-24 Artifacts Hockey - Buyer's Guide! Investment Info & Case Break Simulations (Upper Deck)

WATCH BEFORE YOU BREAK!!!
Make more informed decisions when buying into breaks and buying sports cards overall. I will break it all down for you here.
Here's what you get from my videos:
Product Info
Aesthetic review
Hit breakdown
The top dollar amount you should spend on a team by case cost and distribution of Pull Types
Checklist strength metric, created by me to help determine which teams may provide the best ROI breakdowns
Total product strength score between 0-5
Master checklist summary
Cards types and quantities
Print runs for all teams
Number of cards with each print run
Number of cards with each team
Case break simulation of 20 cases
One case results of cards pulled by team, type, and print run
Twenty case results by team, type, and print run
Overall suggestion
By scraping and aggregating data from sports-reference.com and google, I have developed quantitative values representing the STRENGTH of a checklist for each team.This means that the top team in each category has cards with players representing the most popular and talented players. One major factor in this score is the number of searches for a player specifically regarding sports cards and memorabilia.
Popularity is equal to online search trends in specific categories during a specific time frame
200x Case Breaks simulated with an algorithm I built. Analysis of the product What cards are pulled by team and print run for one case and then for 200 cases. Use this to inform your purchases, but do not expect me to be correct 100% of the time. I take no responsibility for you not getting hits in a break you buy into.

[@shasha4274]

Applause to you sir 👏👏👏 love your content 👌

[@sportscardanalysis]

Thank you so much!

[@jean-luc-bedard]

Wild stuff, invaluable in general and not just for case breaks etc. Would be cool if at the end - given your grasp on this - you provide a ranked top 5 overall, all things considered. Also would be cool if you did a video comparing the different product lines themselves. Can this type of analysis be done for series 1/2 vs artifacts etc etc rather than teams/hits within a given product? Or don’t do any of that - either way, fascinating video

[@sportscardanalysis]

This is exactly the type of feedback I love. Thank you Jean-Luc First, I plan on doing a 2023 year end review and comparing some of the products, so your recommendations are right on point. Also, I absolutely can add features for product vs product comparison. Great idea. What type of comparisons would make sense to include? Auto checklist strength? ROI comparisons? For the “top 5” ranking, are you specifically asking for a top 5 products, sets, players, teams? What ranking are you looking for? Again, your comment is stellar. Thank you for the suggestions and keep an eye out for these additions in the future.

[@jean-luc-bedard]

@@sportscardanalysis no problem man. By top 5 here I just meant what you think the top 5 teams worth paying for are in a case break of artifacts - which also translates to which team(s) in artifacts has overall the best cards & ROI. I’m just a simple collector so with comparing the different products I’d be wanting to look at things that determine which has the best value for the price - most videos about that are just opinion based on experience, but would be cool to determine something concrete through this kind of deep dive analysis you do. Again, thanks for the effort!

[@yvr2yyz]

Mind. Blown. 👏👏👏

[@sportscardanalysis]

Thanks! I hope to continue doing that.

[@Millicurie551]

Great video again! Looks like a nice product.

[@sportscardanalysis]

Thank you!

[@urgencyy]

Man this is incredible. Really appreciate it

[@sportscardanalysis]

Thank you so much! Glad you found it useful.

[@cameronmckenzie7304]

thanks for this! cant wait for the cup

[@scottyboy6269]

Cup is such a bad investment, though

[@sportscardanalysis]

I’ll do that video as soon as the checklist drops

[@cameronmckenzie7304]

@@sportscardanalysis checklist has been out for a few days now

[@thelastdropinvegas]

I ran my own analysis. My total population print is approx. 6,350,000. Interesting that yours is 1/3 of that. Would love to know how you quantified your population.

[@sportscardanalysis]

Excellent question. When I run the simulation, I need to scale back the number of base cards, otherwise running the simulation will crash my computer because of the way the algorithm calculates which cards are pulled and how many are left in the pot. In this case, I cut back the base bards by several thousand. When I do this, I do my best to make sure the autos, memorabilia, inserts, and parallels are as accurate as possible. For parallels that aren't numbered in the checklist, I do try to calculate the right count, but sometimes I have to guess. Since my ROI calculations are based on 200 case breaks, I try to make sure there are at least enough cards to fill 200 cases, which is always the case. For the "total cards per team", there will always be some uncertainty and margin of error, but I make sure that any changes in print runs I make, I do so evenly across all cards of the same type. That way, even if the number is wrong, the order of the teams is still correct.

[@thelastdropinvegas]

@@sportscardanalysis use goal seek on some calcs as it makes it much easier. Example ; if they say 1:1000 packs and you know it’s out of 99 print you can calc out or close to it.

[@sportscardanalysis]

That is how I currently calculate what I can, some stuff I can’t find info for, but I do my best. I love that UD puts pack odds out very early for products. Gives me a chance to analyze it. Topps and panini, not so much.

[@thelastdropinvegas]

How many of these did you calculate were in the population? Connor McDavid 23-24 UD Artifacts Retro Auto Facts Autograph # RAF-CM SSP@@sportscardanalysis

[@Dan420kmk]

Is there some where we can go look at this info

[@sportscardanalysis]

Unfortunately no, not yet. I am looking into a website as we speak

[@teddymctedsters2928]

do now PLEASE, my Data Analysis brain needs to pour through this@@sportscardanalysis

[@bkj1796]

Hey! I was wondering if you have done a 21/22 the cup video ?

[@sportscardanalysis]

Working on it now

[@mikebell3127]

So would thos be a buy and open or buy and hold on to the box?

[@sportscardanalysis]

Hmmm. I hadn’t considered personal box value, but based on the value I’m seeing in the product, I personally would open it. I don’t see this as a prospecting product to hold, especially with the number of redemptions. However, with the Bedard hype, it might be worth holding and selling unopened in a year or two

[@cazschiller]

I'd like to help you with the website probono, any way I can get in touch?

[@sportscardanalysis]

Amazing comment! Let me gather some thoughts and get back to you. I already generate an HTML for each one, I just need to look up hosting them and I have an idea of where I will do that. I want to make sure I don't kill my KZbin progress while also giving access to the analysis.

[@cazschiller]

@@sportscardanalysis I understand 100%, take your time. I host with a number of providers. I manage and build/host custom sites, but wordpress is usually the most integrative and cost effective. I'll also host it for a few weeks free of charge if you like, using a 'staging' site link before we publish live so you can send it to a few people to test and give feedback prior to launch. I'd love to help, truly!

[@cazschiller]

@@sportscardanalysis hey, sorry to bother you about it again. Just a friendly reminder I would still like to help you get a website going. Happy to dm you on ig if you prefer, let me know. Happy Holidays and hope the new year brings you joy. cheers

[@sportscardanalysis]

Hey Happy holidays! I have started coding a simple site and have some things working. I am currently looking into hosting options, ads, and how to best post content without killing the KZbin side of things. I really want to keep these going.