It would have been nice if you would have made this information more useful by discussing where we are at today and what the trend is. You excluded the most important and relative information.

Well you said nothing, useless fellow. If its thats working become billionaire , till then stop making these useless videos

It would be interesting to see which of the sectors takes the downturn first, as opposed to which has the biggest down-turn. I.e. is one sector more of a leading indicator than others.

Update on this one?

There was a shortage of several auto equipment temporarily.

People are facing a tough retirement. and it's even harder for workers to save due to low-paying jobs, inflation, and high rents. Now, middle-class Americans find it tough to own a home too, leaving them without a place to retire in.

Professional Business Analyst:" Write that down, write that down!"

I think I’ve seen you give a subset of this argument before. Manufacturing and construction jobs. I buy it. I am going to ask this question though; this sounds like these are probably lagging indicators. Correct? In words; if there were a recession to start. These indicators would lag?

Analysing sector employment trends to discern the probability of recession presumes that the the real economy, not the financial economy, drives the larger economy overall when all evidence seems to suggest that the inverse is true.

Do we have another bear capitulating?

Something is wrong with the data. In manufacturing payrolls at 1:42 you show a drop of around 0.8% in 2024. But when you combine manufacturing with construction in 4:08 you do not show any decline in 2024.

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Do you think the Fed is cutting rates to avoid more job losses?

Most rich people stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then most poor people stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich but impressing them. People prefer to spend money on liabilities, Rather than investing in assets and be very profitable

Would be nice if all of these charts were on the same scale

Great video

Hey, you're back. I thought you went to work somewhere else

What effect will tariffs and mass deportation have on construction and manufacturing? Google AI says: "According to a 2021 Center for American Progress report, about 23% of construction workers in the United States are undocumented immigrants. This is more than double the rate of undocumented workers in the workforce as a whole."

According to this video, we don’t know when a recession will occur, but we know when it won’t. By that logic, no recession should have ever been a surprise, although it seems that every past recession was more or less unexpected. How can this be explained (if I’m right)? My explanation would be that reliable (accurate) data often comes with a delay of up to a year. Only after data revisions can we see that a recession was on the horizon. Can you do a video on this topic of data delay? Is there something to it?

👍

So, what??

Only goldfish or newcomers could listen to your predictions with straight face... you have "predicted" housing crises two or three years ago... now I can't find that video! If you are going to predict every year that there would be a drop in 10-20% of something it will eventually happens... only after a run of ~200%

Wow Presented in a clear and concise manner.Well done!

What about the gig economy?

instant click.

I remember earlier this year people are saying that the trucking industry took a huge hit and that signals recession. I wonder how is the trucking industry doing now.

Would be great if you could isolate transportation and review that a bit as well. Wondering if that sub component of its category would be more cyclical than the other two.

Can you do a video on ghost jobs?

Great videos, well earned 100k

Thanks for sharing! So, no downturn in sight yet?

Great video!! Construction and manufacturing makes logical sense as being highly correlated to a more broad economic recession. But I’m not sold on them being driving forces or CAUSAL factors.. (not sure if you were making the causal case but seems implied at the end of the video) Construction is heavily tied to investments, as projects span years and require significant upfront capital. It makes sense that during times with reduced cash flow, companies are less willing to invest in construction projects. I’d argue this is more of a symptom of the recession than a cause. Manufacturing layoffs are probably indicative of reduced demand for retail. Which makes sense during recessions why people wouldn’t want to go out and spend money if they lost their job or perceive the economy as “weak”. To me it seems like recessions hit these two sectors the hardest for the above reasons, rather than either of them being the first domino to fall triggering a recession.

Congratulations for 100K subs.

100k yes congratulations 🎊 👏

The fundamental problem I see with this presentation, is trusting the data. The present administration has been fudging data so it can't be trusted.

Congratulations on 100k subs! 😊