America's Income Crisis: How It's Triggering a Collapse in Birth Rates

[@Thenineoh]

This pretty much proves the fact we've never recovered after 2008 to this day. I've been saying that all along.

[@frederickmuhlbauer9477]

You and Peter Schiff It’s pretty obvious like 911 or Epstein

[@Withnail1969]

There has been nothing but stagnation since 2008, hidden by creative accounting.

[@spark300c]

yes and immigration has not help. In fact if was not immigration the labor market would be tighter and middle class larger. You only can have large middle class with very tight labor market. also house cost would be less. Once the employment number when back how it was to 2007 level housing was unaffordable to most people and they where force to live with roommates or parents. when men live with parents they do not date because women say do not date a men that live parents.

[@frederickmuhlbauer9477]

@@spark300c definitely true I lost my job to three of those guys Gave up and expatriated Life is so much better now

[@lee161a]

Wage stagnation has existed since the 1970s, and there is a lot of disagreement about whether it exists (it does), and what caused it - expansive deficit spending, the ending Bretton Woods, and so on.

[@empemitheos]

it's pretty insane that something so obvious is almost never pointed out by the mainstream, good on you for actually talking about the real problem

[@connorferguson2269]

probubly because their being told not to by their rich bosses.

[@VVP7891]

It’s because the mainstream has an agenda. When they tell the truth is circumstantial.

[@UvstudioCaToronto]

Not just mainstream media, other KZbinrs on economics don't cover it either.

[@steven4315]

@@UvstudioCaToronto KZbinrs who cover demographics often cover it's economic effects.

[@iansane1928]

Probably because lowwr birth rates have been a trend over time throughout the last 50 years across nearly all nations. So it clearly has nothing to do with US income disparities at its core. Which deflates the entire central premise. This whole video is pretty trash to be honest...He's misattributing correlation and causation when it comes to declining real wages and declining birth rates. Sure there are lots of pretty graphics, but the content is garbage to anyone who understands economics and statistics.

[@wannabewoodworker9705]

And older coworkers of mine was hired when he was 21. I was hired at this job when I was 21. The gap was 16 years between us getting hired and our starting pay was 75 cent apart

[@SpeakerWiggin49]

That's whack

[@wannabewoodworker9705]

Hasn’t stopped me from making babies tho

[@SOP83]

My starting wage in a maintenance department 2yrs ago was $16/hr, the same as my dad's starting wage in a maintenance department in the 1980s. Pay has only increased for managers, supervisors, and execs. I made about $38/hr 15yrs ago working on military bases ... And $25/hr working with illegal mexicans sitting in front of home depot. Nothing makes sense. My employer don't even pay overtime, they say I am exempt ... so I worked 63hrs this week hard physical labor "straight-time".

[@kareltracy]

I remember hearing when I was a kid that veteran mill workers at a Weyerhaeuser lumber mill on the Oregon coast were getting 40 thousand dollars per year. That was 40 years ago.

[@holyhandgrenadeofantioch2019]

Mass immigration depresses wages. Supply and demand.

[@NotSure416]

Never letting the economy go down just makes a bigger bubble.

[@xvx4848]

This is what some have been saying about the housing bubble. The government said in 2008 they were going to get housing back to where it was. Well where it was, was in a bubble so when you do that you're pushing us back into a bubble and this one is way worse than the last because of the compounding effect.

[@firefalcoln]

@@xvx4848The demographic populations have called for there to be more housing inventory available today and over the last few years than at the time of the housing bubble around 2008. There are more millennials than gen Xers. And millennials are now at the prime first time home buying age. Around the time that the housing bubble burst, it was gen X.

[@mg-by7uu]

​@@xvx4848housing prices have stayed flat. It's the dollar that's lost half its value

[@theBear89451]

@@mg-by7uu It's housing purchase price vs pay.

[@nitroneonicman]

​@@mg-by7uueven if the dollar loses half it's value, if the average American isn't earning twice as much then they simply don't have the purchasing power to afford things.

[@joshmeyer8172]

The problem is worse than you think. By including dividend and rental income, you've skewed the average income upwards for the context of consumer confidence and fertility. The vast majority of pre-retirement households only receive income from hourly wages. If you re-did the graph at 6:00 to only include real wages the trend would be even steeper.

[@MersageSW]

Well said

[@ihaventshoweredin7weeksbut792]

Then you should invest

[@Jay-kc2pm]

​@@ihaventshoweredin7weeksbut792the unfortunate reality is over 50% of Americans don't have a savings of $1000 for emergencies, let alone any extra income to invest. When you add in that some of those people work overtime or multiple jobs, they have hardly any time to spare for learning how to invest in the first place

[@ihaventshoweredin7weeksbut792]

@@Jay-kc2pm sucks to be sure. People should still seek to enhance their financial literacy and vote for the change they hope to see, while not depending on it fully

[@adaroben1104]

​@@ihaventshoweredin7weeksbut792 When the game is rigged what do you do? Keep playing to lose more?

[@barkter]

Walmart ceo: when i first started out in the early 80's i was unloading trucks for $6 an hour! Me:.....but....but thats $19 an hour in todays money.... you're telling me that in 40 years all we got was two fucking dollars? Walmart ceo: well we dont really have the money for major raises Me: you just had a shareholders event with lizzo, usher, and the backstreet boys....we got lizzo money but we aint got cody needs some new shoes money? What a load of shit.

[@mikesteelheart]

Back in 2017 I got a part-time job unloading trucks at Sears and got paid $7.75/hr. So I didn't even get $2 more in almost 40yrs lmao.

[@barkter]

@@mikesteelheart well $7.75 an hour is $0.50 more than the minimum wage so if you take that and save it up, then you can eventually buy yourself some bootstraps to pull yourself up by. Damned millennials, stop eating avocado toast.

[@fgnsRShw4]

​@barkter it's depressing that it took me a moment to realize you were being sarcastic..

[@barkter]

@@fgnsRShw4 well the op was actually true. But my reply to the other guy was 100% sarcasm

[@fgnsRShw4]

@@barkter yeah thats what i meant. sorry, forgot to clarify.

[@livingbeings]

The real problem is the legal mandate to prioritize shareholder profits instead of distributing the profit among employees via raises and bonuses.

[@kedmond]

Precisely. This video seems to blame government subsidies for inflation when it's been proven to be due to price gouging, followed by those massive margins being used to subsidize the biggest share holders...not R&D or workers.

[@itachi-hf3kv]

GREED!!!

[@nodaklojack]

Immigrants supress wages. No immigrants allows natural market forces to raise wages as labor is more scarce.

[@theultimatereductionist7592]

EXACTLY, @livingbeings!

[@jeffreyhill4705]

Or you could argue that the fed increase of interest rates, to switch corporate budgets from payroll to debt servicing, is a major cause. The fed argues that higher payrolls is the cause of inflation, so payroll needs to be suppressed to fight inflation, others argue that the increase in money supply causes inflation, and that payroll prices are the most sticky, being adjusted once a year, and the last to catch up.

[@tres5533]

Gen - X here. Most of my friends never really recovered economically from the 2008 crisis. In fact, I am in a much worst position now than before the 2008 crisis.

[@guru47pi]

Me too! I'm 40, and every GOP president in my lifetime has put the economy into a recession at the end of their term; the only one of those recessions we actually recovered from was the '91-92 recession. The income growth line crashes, then starts with a lot growth rate until this time it's negative. The economy as a whole has grown, but all the money goes to progressively richer people and corporations, who then lobby for lower and lower taxes. We now have a 0.1% aristocracy with half the wealth, and whom pay between 0-20% in taxes on only realized gains, while workers pay between 30-50% and have lost most unionization protections. Of course most of us are feeling worse; that's the plan!

[@HungerSTR1KE]

I JUST recovered from the 2008 financial crisis in 2024. It took me 16 years. I never thought it would be that bad for that long.

[@Chevyfanboy]

@@HungerSTR1KErip my friend be prepared for this next one

[@aspiringscientificjournali1505]

@@guru47pi I’m starting to think the donut on purpose to try to hurt dems It’s annoying not a game of Biden but if I’m fair he did pull us out of what would have been way worse under trump long term

[@nuance9000]

That's why it's The Silent Depression: don't call it an economic depression with a capital D. It's the "Great Recession", oh, and maybe You should get checked out for Your Capital D Depression. And, ironically, recessions were calculated based on WWII metrics (Great Depression), which is why we never technically had a recession since the "Great" one. 2020 was a 1 quarter recession, so doesn't count. Neither does 2022... For reasons...

[@topol6]

The Silent Depression.

[@lu5445]

We cant even call it a depression anymore.

[@SC-sh6ux]

2008 is the year that the growth in the 20 year olds age group stopped. In other words, our population has grown, but only in old people, not in ultra productive twenty somethings.

[@veiga1000]

This, I graduated from college that year. I'm almost 40 now. Everything my parents were able to do were just out of reach. I just kept working harder but I just couldn't make it. I feel exhausted and used after almost two decades of false promises, bad advice, and lack of community. I'm just done

[@gabrielgonzalez6456]

Immigration has increased the population especially in urban areas. Don’t think that will change soon, although migration should be limited and more exclusive to productive individuals, but that’s another topic…

[@gabrielgonzalez6456]

@@veiga1000I started college but didn’t finish til sometime after and it was a community college. Since I felt I wasn’t going to be a college I decided to work full time while living with my parents and invest all excess of income in the stock market. Went through the 2008 crash, stopped putting in but just held it. Since then it’s 5 times the size, I continue saving since 2008-2009 and bought a house until 2014. Moved out at that time, was about 27-28. Parents helped a lot but since they saw economic growth they supported me. I believe lots of people especially coming out of college lack education especially financial. I only have my AA and have worked nearly 20 years have two properties. I also do think the last 2-3 years are a lot tougher than the previous 10-15 years. From 2009 to 2019 it was probably the best year

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

2008 is also the year that smartphones and social media really started to take off. Social Media greatly diminished the intrinsic worth of the average female in the eyes of the average male, thereby giving him one more reason to choose to avoid household formation.

[@captmaverickable]

Graduated High School in 2005. Experienced 3 years of a robust Economy. Started working at my dream job, a computer store in 2008. By August I was laid off. Didn’t find a job until 2011. That period of unemployment set me back farther than realized. 2024 is a different beast. This is the most expensive living situation. Everything feels heavy.

[@ramseymansford2246]

I graduated college in 2008 at the age of 28 with $100k in debt, and wasn't able to make a living wage until 2012. Since then, my wages haven't kept up with inflation, and I'm no better off today than in 2012. Now I'm 44, with my industry becoming automated, I can't take on more education debt, and raising children is definitely a bad investment.

[@DavidVonR]

Sorry to read that. What industry do you work in?

[@lpslvr]

i am so sorry

[@nuance9000]

Children aren't monetary investments; they're time investments. I wonder how our children will think of our career-focused, debt-based economy in an age of man-made climate change? The first children of the Anthrocene...

[@MrTaylork1]

@@nuance9000man made climate change is fake.

[@idaho_girl]

Imagine if you never had to take on all that education debt? Instead of your payments going to a bank, you would have spent it driving more economic activity. I would argue that the pendulum has swung too far to the "education is only a personal benefit" extreme from "education is solely a public good" extreme.

[@Jersderakerguoe]

The economy is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.

[@Hectorkante]

Things are strange right now. The US dollar is becoming less valuable because of inflation, but it's getting stronger compared to other currencies and things like gold and property. People are turning to the dollar because they think it's safer. I'm worried about my retirement savings of about $420,000 losing value because of high inflation. Where else can we keep our money?

[@bernadofelix]

It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.

[@bernadofelix]

There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@SandraDave.]

I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip

[@ashtonarmstrong3082]

Millennial here. Been saying this since I graduated in 2011. Kids were never even on my mind. Gas 4.25 a gallon. 4 year degree wages in the

[@theBear89451]

What size lot is your house on? Lot size is the biggest factor in the decision to have children.

[@cardesigner]

That’s a loser mentality. I’m a melwbial with multiple kids and 7 figure net worth. Paid my own way to college while starting a business, and then in to corporate America. Retired at 39. If you have a college degree and only make $22 an hour, you are the problem.

[@jimpaddy79]

@@cardesigner But do you expect every one to be able to do that ?, life is a competition and your clearly won but society worth of the median.

[@EwanM11]

​@@cardesignerwell done. You out competed everyone. Evolution never stops. There are always winners and losers, the number of winners is a lot smaller.

[@rayr6278]

​@jimpaddy79 The biggest qualifier of whether or not someone succeeds lies in themselves and their mentality, to the point that it far exceeds extranalities like wealth, disability/health, location etc. If I wanted to get married one day but thought that all gals today are loose, selfish, entitled, greedy. I might be right in some respect when constantly viewing media that reinforces this worldview. But it's a loser mentality that keeps me convinced that marriage is not actually what I want, that I shouldn't pursue gals because they are all the same. The same mentality that keeps people poor and in the herd of group think and self pity.

[@titolovely8237]

workers never really recovered from 2008. even a historically tight labor market isnt driving up wages fast enough to be meaningful. it's due to incomes being divorced from productivity growth. the business class captured our government and regulated away the ability of average people to compete for wage growth. things like non compete agreements, not enforcing anti trust laws, right to work states, at will firing etc have all been a contributing factor to employers simply not having to pay workers more.

[@hooksx]

First chart shows that's really not true.

[@logantcooper6]

A tight labor market doesn't help wages. 2022 labor shortage helped boost wages.

[@edwardmitchell6581]

I heard there are some antitrust investigations into MSFT and NVDA. I we figure something out. In my youth, I was too much of an anticapalist to take advantage of Nvidia.

[@lmchankins]

That first chart only went back to 2009, it completely masks 2008 and the loss of real personal income since then. If the chart included the data from 2008 and before, the projection is actually $6T of real personal income and 24M jobs behind trend (inflation adjusted) ​@hooksx

[@jerryrichardson2799]

Totally agree with you, thank you.

[@hesham8]

I was just about to type a comment about how a 20-year span isn't really representative of normal behavior when you transitioned into "Now, you might say 20 years isn't very long." Masterful.

[@EPBResearch]

Gotcha!

[@brennermusgrave4052]

Yeah. He did a great job on this video. I was going to point out in the comments that the birth rate declined when women entered the workforce so it's not representative and then he said it like two seconds later. Lol.

[@Slide61]

2008 was a pivot point where the toll from Private Equity impacts finally materialized. PE continues to strip the United States ability to produce income.

[@0witw047]

Describe to me what you think private equity is. You won’t be able to

[@Slide61]

@@0witw047 Yeah? I could go into a long winded explanation about my personal experience with PE, the destruction of a 100 year old very profitable company, along with 2600 jobs but it might more constructive to flag a good reference for you 'Plunder...' by Brendan Ballou ​@0witw047

[@Slide61]

@@0witw047 In simple terms PE LBOs mostly target companies not for their ability to grow and innovate but for their ability to service massive debts placed on them to pay PE fees (management fees and lease backs of once wholly owned assets), the debt to acquire them, and investors who are mostly public pension funds like CALPERs. As maturing debt rolls over into the new interest rate environment many of these companies can no longer service the debt.

[@Slide61]

Not to bore you with a sordid personal experience with PE LBO here is a good descriptive reference "Plunder: Private Equity's Plan to Pillage America" Book by Brendan Ballou

[@daviddobarganes9115]

​@@0witw047Easy. Capitalism is a bunch of workers with a funnel at the top of each industry sucking up all productivity gains and wealth created, which doesnt care if individuals cant survive. Private equity is a funnel over all the funnels, which doesnt care if companies cant survive.

[@shawn576]

In Alberta (Canada), the wage for a journeyman electrician in 2024 is slightly lower in nominal terms than it was in 2018. Once you factor inflation into the mix, this means real wages are down about 30%. Gee I wonder why nobody is having kids.

[@MultiAnne36]

Shawn, when adjusted for inflation I am making less as a Nurse now than when I started 12 years ago. Infanct I make less now than in 2020 because I moved to a more " affordable" state or so I thought.

[@NateB]

It’s also because women expect men to make more than they do. Hypergamy only gets worse with diversity quotas.

[@rickcramer7892]

2008 really DID break the system and it's been artificially propped up ever since

[@daMillenialTrucker]

thanks obama :D

[@weemackee]

@@daMillenialTrucker Obama wasn't in office in 2008.

[@testnameplsignore6916]

@@daMillenialTruckeris u restarded or smth?

[@daMillenialTrucker]

@@testnameplsignore6916 the 2008 crash was 110% the Obama administrations fault, implementing heavier regulations on every industry, taxing the fuck out of them, especially coal mining and the trucking industry. I don't expect someone who only makes $50,000 a year to understand the details of the economic crash though. Just stay in your lane you little brainwashed 🤡

[@daMillenialTrucker]

@@testnameplsignore6916 oh and don't forget the wars Obama spear headed, we killed 1,000,000 iraqi's for no God damn reason. People like you should not be allowed to vote, your too simple minded and lazy.

[@christopherherbert2407]

Americans are facing a tough time with their finances, especially concerning housing affordability and retirement savings.

[@ericbergman7546]

And with the fear of not being able to retire comfortably, people might be tempted to make risky investments or neglect proper financial planning, which could spell trouble for their portfolios in the long run

[@georgeearling905]

It's a vicious cycle. If people can't afford homes, they might delay retirement savings, but if they focus solely on saving for this. Economic instability, inflation, and market fluctuations can further complicate matters and add to people's financial worries

[@rodgertim2881]

It's crucial to have a well-thought-out plan, especially considering the current state of the global economy.

[@AliciaCrone]

Given the uncertainties, it might be wise to allocate a portion to safer options like bonds or fixed income securities

[@Sanchyfab]

The problem is that people don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging condition

[@FreedomTalkMedia]

The birth rate isn't 1.6%. It's 1.6 children per woman.

[@leeknivek]

And white women of child bearing age are less than 1% of the population

[@MarinKarin-dj9pm]

More like 1.6 cats per woman 😂😂😂😂😂

[@NX124]

yikes

[@rathelmmc3194]

But what's really interesting is if you only look at women who have children the birth rate has increased to 2.6 births per women. We're entering an interesting time as the species prunes itself to people who are even more pro-natal.

[@connormcgehee9349]

Reminder that 1.6 children per woman is below the needed 2.01(cause men are born more) needed to keep a population alive

[@Bfould3120]

“Too big to fail” The government’s actions to the financial crisis showed clearly that capital is more important than labor. Massive bailouts for the rich that took on risk but no massive public works projects to keep laborers employed. This killed the American dream and the consumer’s desire to work for it.

[@Bailouts4Billionaires]

Yes! We are still paying for the GFC bailouts, and have added more to them since then. Not to mention the fed’s massive QE and especially their MBS purchases for no reason.

[@bdhanes]

Well put. 👍

[@Joe-xq3zu]

The American Dream may have died in 2008 but the finance and equity industry sure have been going like it's the wild west! They've been essentially strip mining the economy for the last 15+ years and making profits like you and I can't even imagine! It takes time to disassemble and clean out the carcass of the most powerful economy in history, but there they are chugging along.

[@MjV-jd2lo]

All of this is happening while United States continues to see records profits and revenue. GDP IS UP, UP, UP.

[@bryanleblanc5648]

Right but the way inflation works, those numbers are fairly meaningless unless we adjust for inflation. It's like how every 1-2 years there is a new box office record for movies, because the price of movie tickets is always rising, but if you adjust for inflation, the Top Lifetime Adjusted Gross is 1939's Gone With The Wind. Most ticket sales and highest gross. Now, that's kind of a gotcha answer since in those days movies were much rarer and movies stayed in theaters for years and years. But the 2nd highest in terms of tickets and gross is 1977's Star Wars (A New Hope) and 3rd is A Sound of Music (1965). The closest recent movie is The Force Awakens at #11. This is a good example of how statistics can lie to us unless we're careful.

[@Nersius]

Though you are right, studies have shown that only about half of inflation is actually inflation, and that corporations are making record profits by abusing pandemic era trends to somehow price gouge even after the crisis had ended and supply chains had recovered.

[@avenger1212]

@@bryanleblanc5648 Don't forget the government can goose the GDP with creating new debt.

[@jimmiller5600]

CEO pay is up over 3,000% since the 80's. Median worker pay? 15%. Enjoy.

[@ericd8998]

2008/2009 was also the last time the national minimum wage was increased. The shareholders and the politicians they own are the devil 👿.

[@RyRy2057]

At some point we’re gonna have to admit that 2008 began a New Depression, as the growth of the real economy never returned to baseline and remains depressed. This must wholly rearrange our thinking of the economy, as each previous depression required a fundamental change in how capitalism worked in order to pull out of it. Unfortunately, tech and finance and stock returns have been high enough to paper over this rather obvious truth and so no fundamental change seems to be on the horizon. We have many more years of gradual decline to look forward to I imagine. (Not to mention that the USA runs the entire world’s financial system, it’s better here than most everywhere else so imagine the New Depression being faced by the billions across the world. China is, as usual since 2008, an exception that proves the rule)

[@uss-dh7909]

Nah man, you haven't looked at china since She came into power. If you think they're still rocking on all cylinders and seeing 15% growth, let me tell you that the pandemic and years of zero covid, then the American trade war right after has absolutely rocked their world. The housing sector which is an outsized part of their economy (since citizens can't invest in anything else) due to people buying two, three, four houses before they were even built, which was supposed to keep growing like an unstoppable force hit an immovable object a few years ago. A couple of their biggest lenders like Evergrande aren't doing too well and housing prices are way down. You know who lives in houses? People. You know what's trending downward? People. Yup, Chinas population is trending downward thanks mainly due to its apocalyptic one child policy, but also the governments grip on the people. Many single children are saying that they're the last generation of their family linage, and parents who used to push hard for grandchildren have quietly accepted the fact that they won't be grandparents. Less young people means bad news for their manufacturing sector. It also means their shrinking productive population will have to support an increasing unproductive population. What productive population they do have employed is even in question, youth unemployment was on an upward seasonal yo-yo and ending around 20% before they stopped making the data public a while back. It's also worth mentioning that quality of these buildings; houses, apartment blocks, skyscrapers, and more is often shoddy, often called 'rottentail' or 'tofu-dreg', that is if they're even finished to begin with! The concrete, you can dig through it with your bare hands. The rebar; if its real then it will rust quickly, if its "rebar", then its bambo. Would you trust driving on their tofu bridges, would you even trust driving by their EV's that could catch on fire and burn uncontrollably at any moment? Okay so EVs aren't an option, we still have gas right? There's plenty of fuel on the market ever since the rocket force used the rocket fuel for cooking hotpot and replaced it with water. If ever there was a time for China to invade Taiwan and actually win, it's best done in the next six months. You can simply forget about it after 2035. Not making fun of ya RyRy, just informing you that you might want to take a second, third, fourth, maybe even a fifth look at China. If anyone tells you "we live in interesting times", they're lying to you. We live in scary times, and I'll be laughing all the way to the bitter end. As if it wasn't scary enough, America just came off the petrodollar. We produce nothing of value to the world since we shipped all our manufacturing to China, so why would anyone want our currency? My country will be flushed away quicker than the first flush every morning into San Francisco. c:

[@doliver5447]

I would argue 2008 did not break the system but instead that was the point at which an unsustainable approach finally broke. From the 80s onwards, prosperity was increasingly fueled by debt, both public and private. We were living beyond our means. That can’t last for ever and it didn’t. In 2008, we snapped back to a baseline that was always there but which we were able to defy for a time, but only for a time.

[@edubmf]

Rentier activity is the problem. Credit expansion is infinite, land / housing is finite, the former will expand until it saturates all disposable income to access the latter.

[@jeremywalsh5177]

very concise way to put it.

[@nERVEcenter117]

This. Land and housing are the largest domestic sink for inflation. And all political will is behind continuing that inflation. The largest upward transfer of wealth in history.

[@jerryrichardson2799]

Henry George is due for a comeback.

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

In other words, what happened in France a couple of hundred years ago is happening/has happened to us now...where's our Bastille though?

[@joedillian]

​​@@CaptainCaveman1170 Panem et circenses. Don't expect anything to change until people can't dull their senses with reality TV drivel and fast food slop.

[@pensacola321]

More basically, the high cost of medical, the high cost of child care and income inquality are driving low birth rates.

[@steven4315]

We have a record number of people retiring. This means more people consuming but not producing. That trend alone is inflationary. More people chasing fewer goods.

[@MBarberfan4life]

If the Fed engages in QE again, like on the scale they have in the past 15 years, yes that scenario would be very inflationary.

[@joblo1978]

This is partially true. The consumer preferences also change.

[@Naomi-xu4hq]

Best way to fix that? Young. Migrants desperate for work who are fine with low wages

[@dioxideuniversal]

im going to go put on a limb and say problems created by labor exploitation cannot be fixed with more labor exploitation

[@raymond_sycamore]

Dating isn't even happening, let alone childbirth...

[@frankbibanko]

For what purpose, dating leads to drama.

[@CordeliaWagner1999]

I am 22. I have never met a halfway decent guy that isn't totally selfish and immature. I don't want to waste my best years to be a caretaker

[@raymond_sycamore]

@@CordeliaWagner1999 "halfway decent" is code for "hot enough for me to consider human." Tell the truth, trollop.

[@raymond_sycamore]

@@CordeliaWagner1999 DATE DIFFERENT MEN! The rest of the 99% of the male population exists, too. ALSO, date older. God.

[@raymond_sycamore]

@@CordeliaWagner1999 Everything about this comment enrages me.

[@jameslee-dp6cb]

Did CEOs really think they could give a 31% increase in wages as their housing costs jumped 438%? And thats not to mention how auto prices spiked during the last inflation wave. If workers cant afford to buy on what your paying them, they dont see any profit to working. In the 1960s, CEOs made about 8 times what the average worker made. Today, a CEO makes 32 times what the average worker makes. Is it any wonder why the birthrate is down? And I ask you, " Why should people work for large companies if they cant house their families, feed them, and own transportation to get to their jobs. Nope. This has been in the making for several decades and it appears that the trend has just about ran its course. Once the general public gets past the shock, more and more workers will probably drop out of the workplace. Importing workers wont work much longer either. Their expenses wont be any different. Its why I have been telling people for some time now to get themselves a place in the countryside so they can grow their own food. CEOs have been more interested in producing a positive profit margin for so long that the entire economy is now in jeopardy. They wont stop pushing for higher profits because it ensures their jobs, but without workers to get the jobs done, it seems the CEOs have worked themselves out of a robust work force. Its why we get such low quality products these days. As for the population decline, the government will continue to cater to the wealthy and import unsuspecting migrants to do work. It has worked for them in the past at supressing wages. I heard a man just the other day say that this recession "feels different" and hes right. The inflation in the nation has caught up to the labor force and no one is going to be motivated to work much longer. The trucking industry is really struggling right now. If the trucking companies cant continue to operate, then production will soon drop off sharply. Theres no need to build something that cant be delivered. And on and on it goes.

[@Flyanb]

You are spot on!

[@WikiPeoples]

Thank you for covering this. My wife and I are choosing to never bring another soul into this world, and a big part of the reason why is exactly what you discussed here. We have absolutely worked our asses off, and we're doing quite well compared to most people, but it doesn't feel like its anything CLOSE to what it should be given the effort we've both put out. I can't imagine telling my children that they need to work as hard, or harder, and will likely make even less than we do... This country is doomed.

[@misspat7555]

I’m telling my kids to take advantage of work preparation programs in high school and go to community college. It’s still going to be rough out there, though. BUT, fewer and fewer workers will HAVE to drive up wages some. No company wants to go belly-up for lack of workers.

[@bb5242]

you are overthinking it and making excuses based on propaganda you were exposed to in college

[@iwiffitthitotonacc4673]

​@@bb5242 And yet you're providing no points yourself, which is a sign that you have no evidence for this claim.

[@thedman05]

I find it depressingly par for the course that the government refuses to acknowledge the economic realities post 2008 that this video highlights. Our country never recovered. The financial stability and long term returns from the private sector, jobs, and wage growth for the average consumer just collapsed and never recovered to its pre 2008 levels. Why on earth would me and most millenials want to pop out any damn kids when we can’t even buy homes, and it took most of us a decade just to break into our careers because of how shitty the post 2008 job prospects looked as a new graduate looking to start our careers

[@jimmiller5600]

It's been going on since the 80s, you just might not be old enough to have witnessed it. I recognized the game was rigged and slid my bets in on the side of the people doing the rigging. Retired a decade to enjoy the semi-ill-gotten gains.

[@AlxParrish]

They definitely acknowledge it. It's just that the super rich are their clients, not you.

[@shotelco]

I occasionally disagree with some of the positions EPB takes, but _This Presentation_ - especially considering his library of Ultra-Quality work - is a true *Masterpiece.* Visually stunning while simultaneously intellectually insightful and thought provoking. Also, ...a "Best Sound Engineering" nomination for the "paper page turning" effects!

[@losergamer04]

So, if stocks are up and income is down, does that indicate an increased wealth concentration?

[@the_expidition427]

No it reiterates stocks are propped up by a house of cards and debt massive debt

[@AdamWright8fool]

This year's challenges are sure to be more difficult. Reflecting back, I realize that I made horrible financial decisions for the entire year prior because I was so focused on my portfolio. I was forced to pick between future investing and purchasing a property. After opting to sell my investments, I discovered that the home I had purchased required more maintenance than I thought. It's becoming increasingly difficult to determine how much longer I can tolerate it.

[@CoreyLloydo]

Take it easy because we've all made mistakes

[@ArchieJohnson5h]

Invest in companies that provide current cash flows to diversify your portfolio. I hired a planner at the end of 2023 to help me grow my portfolio, and in the last 7 months, I've profited in over 20,000 distinct marketplaces. If 2023 teaches us anything, it's that luck does not endure forever. Even in times of abundance, we should make more effort to plan for the worst case situation.

[@SasiponPanavaravatn]

How can one locate a verifiable financial planner? I wouldn't mind looking up the professional who assisted you. I'll be retiring in two years and could need some help managing my considerably larger wealth. I don't want to take any chances.

[@ArchieJohnson5h]

Leah Foster Alderman. You'll surely learn more if you search her up online.

[@SasiponPanavaravatn]

She appears to be educated and well-read. I carried out an online search on her name and found her webpage, thank you for sharing.

[@paxundpeace9970]

This has been going on for a long time. During and after the financial crisis in 2008 wages took a major downturn.

[@SteveDutton-v]

It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to use what's left to invest, but I don't really know which way to go.

[@SeanTalkoff]

Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.

[@PASCALDAB]

How can I reach this advisers of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?

[@SeanTalkoff]

Well, I chose Sharon Ann Meny as my advisor after her interview on CNBC In 2020. She is SEC regulated with offices in the US and quite frankly a genius with portfolio diversification.

[@PASCALDAB]

Thank you for the recommendation. I'll send her an email, and I hope I'm able to reach her.

[@drupatel5131]

You should see the same charts for real income vs inflation or GDP. they capture the story even better in my opinion (especially the breakout in 1973). When we have recessions, power shifts from employees to employers and that basically never comes back result in lesser and lesser salary growths over all the following years - even if the economy comes back up.

[@dudeldudel666]

wow i would really love a comparison between private sector income growth and overall economic growth, people might notice where the money went

[@dzcav3]

This is an outstanding video, the first to show a direct correlation between income trends and birthrate.

[@Riggsnic_co]

The thing to me is, if you invest and have other income outside of dividends then you will be able to live off dividends without selling. Which means you can pass that on to your kids which will give them a leg up in life. $52k dividends received in 2022.

[@kevinmarten]

I agree! That's why it is advisable that you have to invest while you still have a regular job or earning a regular income, and do it constantly. You still need to have something that will keep you going even if you're investing. Good financial planning and money allocation is the key.

[@Jamessmith-12]

The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.

[@JacquelinePerrira]

please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?

[@Jamessmith-12]

'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.

[@JacquelinePerrira]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@Thenineoh]

Let's see what's wrong, the price of EVERYTHING goes up, the price of homes are up over 200-300% in just 4 years, and day care basically costs more than a lot of mortgages do, having a baby is more expensive than it's ever been. Is it a surprise or are the politicians really that out of touch with the public?

[@FreedomTalkMedia]

Also, apparently if you let your 14-year-old watch your kids while you work, you'll go to jail. There's a story about that going around right now. So you have to pay the $16 grand a year for daycare or they will take your kids away and put you in jail for neglect.

[@theBear89451]

The graphs already account for this. Childcare is mostly the salary of paying someone to watch a kid. Childcare costs are basically another way to measure pay raises.

[@antinatalistwitch111]

​@FreedomTalkMedia good. Any parent that turns their child into a young parent deserves jail time.

[@MemoryKasu]

I am really worried about the current crisis/interest rates, these are all the signs of yet another 2008 market crash 2.0 , so my question is do I still save in the United States dollar or is this a good time to buy gold?

[@JamesFreedon]

It’s always a good option to keep some gold. Well with the current market situation and everything at stake with the present economy, I’d say you’re better off staying away from stocks fr awhile or better still reach out to an adviser for guidance.

[@SarachiWowa]

Impressive can you share more info?

[@kaw8473]

I live in a state where childcare is approaching the cost of college tuition. I was paid $110 to watch one kid for a full work day.

[@nERVEcenter117]

The stock market has also become detached from average Americans and real incomes. Even as valuations peak to record highs, the tech industry in particular is in a protracted phase of workforce liquidation. Finding paying skilled work is becoming hopeless for the average, or more appropriately median person.

[@Krasbin]

The average income trend is one factor. But the income distribution also contains a width, a asymmetry as well as tails. And these factors are possibly more relevant. The width can be related to the Gini coefficient, the change in ratio of the median income VS the average income, etc. Failure to account for more aspects of the income distribution than just the average will give a very skewed perspective.

[@theBear89451]

The bottom of the curve is having the most kids.

[@u13erfitz]

That’s putting the cart before the horse. Even if “fairly” distributed there isn’t enough actual productive activity to go around. This is because they didn’t let the bottom fall out of housing and they rewarded it ownership not production. They need to let housing prices collapse and capital will fly to better investment for workers.

[@mr7clay]

Right. Real Median Personal Income (MEPAINUSA672N on FRED) has been stuttering but increasing since 1981 (data goes to 2022). It doesn't seem to me important that it increase according to any particular trend line as long as it doesn't decrease for long. Birthrates are also plummeting *everywhere*, not just the U.S.

[@dreamhollow]

"But collapsed after 2008, never to recover." So you're saying what I already thought; the real economy died in 2008.

[@vcuheel1464]

The slope of the line after 2008 looks similar to the slope of the line before 2008. There aren’t a lot of similar historical events to 2008. You’d have to compare with how long it took to recover from the Great Depression.

[@davidhamilton7166]

So, much of the wealth is owned by older people, held in real estate, equities, and bonds. The coming recession should reset some of this imbalance, especially in real estate - A reset would be good, and it’s likely to happen.

[@ctreacts1537]

Everyone's been saying a recession will happen since 2014. We're 10 years later now and I'm still waiting, hoping

[@KoalasAreBurrs]

It amazes me how little we've actually recovered since 2008. All but 2 years of my entire adult life has been in the slow degradation of our lives since then. 😅 Gotta love it

[@nextgenrunningback]

It would be interesting to see this analysis done with other countries given nearly all of the developed world (and even some of the developing world - e.g., Latin America) is experiencing this phenomenon. Seems like the underlying causes of declining birth rates is a confluence of economic, cultural, and social factors. It’s impossible to pinpoint a single causable metric, but, surely, anticipated economic standing plays a role. Well done!

[@Natethesandman1]

I agree. It would be interesting to see how this factors against what others suggest as the cause. Our World In Data says, There are three major reasons for the rapid decline in the global fertility rate: the empowerment of women - increased access to education and increased labor market participation declining rates of child mortality rising costs of bringing up children, with the decline of child labor

[@theBear89451]

@@Natethesandman1 also population density

[@jimpaddy79]

The figures for the UK follow are very similar pattern, but are even worse

[@boyitelluwhat]

This channel should be required viewing for all US adults.

[@WMDB4637]

The first collapse in the 1960s looks more like a trigger than anything happening now. America just had a bubble economy that artificially increase births from ~1.7 to ~2. Then bubble popped and we’re back to the lows of the 1960 crash of ~1.7. If you look at things like government tax ROI split by gender or student debt by gender. Dollars spent getting women to the workforce is a net loss once they retire and get on government support. You’re sacrificing long term population sustainability and productivity for a short term boost. The structure was never sustainable.

[@the_expidition427]

Saving this

[@guytech7310]

Note the 2008 trend line also mirrors boomer retirement, as the olderest boomers started retiring in 2008. That said. I suspect a lot of boomers are no going have to go back into the workforce as rising living costs are exceeding their ability to make payments from entitlements & savings. Another factor is Obamacare which Ins. premiums are forcing many companies to switch full time workers to part time to avoid having to pay the huge ins. costs. So people are working multiple part time jobs instead of one full time job, but each part time job is still counted in the gov't jobs data reports. Usually the part time jobs also pay less, & workers are forced to pay health care ins out of pocket or do without it. The US heading for hyper inflation, either by the late 2020s or early 2030: 1. US debt tops $100T (Gov't + corp + consumer) about 375% of US GDP. There is no possiblity of paying it down. 2. Gutted US economy, which inflation & gov't regulation is accelerating as companies are deperate to cut costs. The US really only has low wage service jobs left 3. Legalized shop lifting has closed a lot of retail stores. Companies dealing with theft & increased security costs must raise prices 4. Global effort to de-dollarize as the US has weaponized the Dollar. All of the developing world nations are joining BRICS to avoid ongoing, pending, or future US sanctions. Many Central banks are selling off US debt. either to stabilizing their own currencies (Japan), or concerned about account freezing (China). 5. Huge Bailouts pending when the Commerical real estate crisis unfolds (probably in the next 6 to 12 months). Fed is going to need to print trillions to bailout banks & other lenders as the defaults start to pile up. Un occupied buildings pay no revenue to service loans.

[@the_expidition427]

Saving this

[@AlxParrish]

God I hope we don't bail out the banks again.

[@sos2530]

I don’t think we have the money to bail them out this time around…

[@guytech7310]

@@sos2530 Are you serious? Sarcasm? The US will print it, Trillions & Trillions.

[@awsomeishchild]

Great video! Couple questions though: 1) you make an assumption here that consumers expect their real income to increase by 2.8% every year. Do consumers actually expect their real income to grow? Most polls I’ve seen suggest people feel more like they’re falling behind where they were 5 years ago, not that they are falling behind where they expected to be today. 2) I’m surprised you jumped to the conclusion that debt was solely responsible for the drop in real income. To me there are some other potential causes (eg. Automation, Boomers retiring) that would cause real private income to not increase as quickly anymore

[@jimpaddy79]

(1) I would assume most people expect their income to increase over there career, I mean you hardily expect the same wage for you first week work as you would for last week be fore retiring.

[@awsomeishchild]

@@jimpaddy79 agreed, but the video was quoting the growth in average real income. So it should average out any income growth you would expect by getting older/more experienced. In other words, the statistic doesnt say anything about one persons income, just that the average income across all age groups is increasing with time.

[@jimpaddy79]

@@awsomeishchild but doesn’t the average capture that already as its an average of different ages

[@awsomeishchild]

@@jimpaddy79 hm, not sure I understand what your question is exactly - care to elaborate? The average will include a cycle of people (new people entering the workforce at the start of their career, and leaving as they retire), so it isn’t always the same population that is being surveyed.

[@Pleasure_Baron]

While pandemic payouts and increased consumer demand have undoubtedly played a role in recent inflation, the significant contribution of increasing, impressive corporate profits- a significant percentage of every inflationary dollar are due to profit increases-highlights the need for a more nuanced and comprehensive understanding of inflation. Balancing the narrative to include the impact of corporate behavior is essential for developing effective policies and fostering informed public discourse. It’s be nice to hear this discussed in greater detail.

[@mattsmith8497]

Confidence in our system is a nebulous concept to measure but I think you are spot on for using the fertility rate as a general proxy to do so. The whole postwar neoliberal order underpinned by American military & economic leadership as well as global trading arrangements designed to maximize efficiency through each participant nation's comparative advantage seems to me to be coming apart rather rapidly at this point. It's all the more concerning considering that the problems of stagnant economic growth, decreasing rates of fertility, mental illness, drug abuse, war, technological displacement of people, political populism, inflation, debt and wealth inequality are all global in nature. We need to begin rethinking our whole notion of progress and how we measure that progress. I struggle to see how we can maintain confidence in the future when our current economic arrangement works only for an increasingly smaller number of people. Perhaps some catalyst will usher in the opportunity to hit the reset button and if not it will be a slow grind until life for some critical mass of people becomes so unbearable that change is forced from the bottom up somehow. I don't believe a top down, reform the system operating within the framework of said system can work; it is truly broken. We should begin to focus our attention on when and how it ends

[@SquizzMe]

This just reminds us how important it is to live for more than just your wealth. Our economy is a fragile luxury.

[@WildDisease72]

What is the Impact? A train of single women over 36 with no partner or children... but they are career oriented.

[@NotShowingOff]

It’s not just the women. It’s worse in many places. Some perspective. We only had a billion people in the early 19th century. The real problem is old people.

[@jimmiller5600]

@@NotShowingOff That problem will solve itself.

[@jerryrichardson2799]

​​@@NotShowingOffNo, the problem is young people, see how easy that was? My parents are in their 80s and my grandparents lived into their 80s and 90s.

[@jerryrichardson2799]

​@@jimmiller5600Perhaps, over the course of a century or two, lol!

[@jimmiller5600]

@@jerryrichardson2799 Check the Japanese, Russian and Chinese demographic curvess. By 2050 it's gonna get ugly.

[@anthonynicoli]

Nice report. And the recommended action is…. Not discussed.

[@spartansfan1026]

I'm pretty sure I will never have a child and most of the girlfriends I've had expressed a similar sentiment - one child at most. None of us want to bring a child into a life of declining economic stability if we have the choice.

[@CreativeMindsAudio]

amazing research! and where'd that difference go in the private sector? To rich people who don't actually need the money. Stock holders, CEOs, etc. I'd be more okay with some of this stuff if companies were required to give stocks as an option to all employees (aka co-op) or something of that sort where they can take a stock payment or some similar equivalent amount of money in the form of long term investments (aka many companies already offer 401ks, so provided they have a good company match program - most don't - and a way to choose where those investments go it's all good).

[@khanfauji7]

So every time money was pumped- people got poorer. I guess that free money wasn’t really free. But some people surly benefited

[@jimpaddy79]

The is a British economist Gray Steven likes to say if the Government gives an average $1000 and a rich person $1,000,000 the average person has not gained anything, in fact there now poorer.

[@the_expidition427]

Free shit isnt free

[@michigandersea3485]

Correct. The vast majority of the money was mostly used to bail out already wealthy people. The ultimate objective is techno-feudalism.

[@harveylin3548]

Private sector can not be strong if the public sector is where everyone is looking for to get solutions.

[@NoOneToNoOne89]

I wonder what the gap was in other places when civil wars / revolutions have ignited.

[@dancox3251]

There are a number of metrics such as the wealth gap that have far, far and away exceeded any levels seen in history before a society tore itself apart.

[@chasebrower7816]

@@dancox3251 Yeah, I would suspect that America's ability to 'bear' economic inequality is quite high on account of modern policing and social attitudes about property rights and security. There are also offsetting effects like modern amenities--it's hard to feel as much urgency to take broad action/protest/revolt when you have infinite access to dopamine through digital content. Historically, you would have felt the effects of hard times all day every day.

[@titolovely8237]

the gaps tend to get pretty extreme right before some form of revolt. we dont have records of most societies but those we do have records of (roman revolutions, french revolution, etc) it does tend follow similar patterns to each other. the society urbanizes and wealth becomes concentrated. that wealth is used to buy political power and through that transfer the political institutions lose their utility and seize up, becoming non functional. at that point it usually takes some form of a crisis to ignite a real revolt, as people are pretty hesitant to overthrow a system (we're all conservatives for the most part). essentially the organs of the state become coopted by the wealthy as wealth concentrates, and those state organs seize up and become useless, making it an easy decision for people to abandon these institutions.

[@Not.a.bird.Person]

@@chasebrower7816 To expand on your point : if you start from a higher point, there is more height from which to fall. When the historical average is something like 95% of the population living in abject poverty and living through actual starvation, revolts tend to be much easier to push. If inequality means you are living in a crappy apartment on a full belly but someone else possesses 8 yachts, 5 helicopters and 3 jets and is eating caviar every day, then there is still comfort in knowing you could be starving. If someone is living in a castle with a fancy roast beef all day and you live in a dilapidated 1700s house with no food for 5 days, then it doesn't take much more than a couple more days for famine to hit you into revolting because there isn't much lower to fall from and actually die from. It's death by revolt or death by starvation basically.

[@Gumardee_coins_and_banknotes]

That is the point where the wealth is extremely concentrated that most of the population dont have much left to loose.

[@kanslahomaweather7933]

25, homeowner, second kid on the way. 34,000 per year

[@qtube2007]

really good video. thanks for sharing

[@deepsudeep]

Always felt this, thank you for showing evidence by numbers 🙏

[@JointStock]

just one problem: it's about male income, not income in general. all the data show that women's fertility actually goes DOWN as their income goes up

[@taukid421]

No, because the vast majority of people producing children are in a relationship where both finances matter.

[@JointStock]

@@taukid421 I must reiterate that the data here is clear. You're in denial

[@theBear89451]

@@taukid421 If you search "demo-economic paradox", there will be a bunch of research showing your mistake.

[@jimpaddy79]

@@JointStock So if your right fertility is going down because women income is increasing, so shouldn't the graph show major wage growth then to match the decline in fertility.

[@link2012Philanthropist]

I feel like it's a big leap in logic to go from saying consumers are skeptical about the economy to that being the reason birth rates are declining. No doubt that is one of the factors, but there are many more at play. I would love a more thorough analysis and/or some more data to bridge the gap here.

[@jimmiller5600]

Since the 1980's 90% of America's wealth gain has gone to the 1%. If you feel you've been shafted, I recommend both Preparation H and voting better.

[@ctreacts1537]

As if Democrats aren't also responsible for the wealth transfer. Their donors are the same as the Republicans, only the Democrats use weaponized incompetence to mask their priorities. Look at Roe v Wade

[@Arcteek]

Is birth rate a good indicator of households confidence? Consider Singapore for instance...

[@grumblewoof4721]

Firstly, we need an independent analysis of the real impacts of a falling birth-rate. There are many reasons why people are choosing to have fewer children. It is worth noting that even in past times of high unemployment. low wages, and wars, families could and often did have more than two children. My own great grand parents had 12 children, their children had 5, subsequently they in turn had two or less children, one of which is me and I have no children. Since the latter children have not had issues finding work and have enough money for houses, cars, holidays, and meals out, then clearly financial worries are not the main reason. I think the reason in the west for the declining birth rate is cultural changes. Children are viewed as inconveniences as the society we have built is not child friendly. There are few places for children to play safely, child care for working parents is hard to find, both parents want to work and have independence, marriages are not for life, schools are over crowded and not deemed 100% safe, getting to and from school can be hazardous. As they grow up children are under enormous pressure to achieve academically, this strains family relationships, advertising and social media do not promote family life and it's benefits. And so on... it's not just about money.

[@natevanderw]

Almost all of what you said are consequences of real income not keeping up. Also, during your great grandparents time, children could work a part time job.

[@grumblewoof4721]

@natevanderw Indeed, I do not deny the impact of income, and I would add that great grandparents had multiple jobs at the same time to make ends meet and afford children. But they were also frugal. They grew their own vegetables, raised chickens in the back garden, and the community was supporting and would help with child minding forexample. Kids played in the streets. They did not need games consoles. There was very little vehicle traffic, and the police were on every street corner and knew the community. A family would have a doctor for life who may well have delivered the kids. During war time, rationing taught people and kids to not waste a thing. Obesity and the illnesses associated with it were rare. There was no fast food, and most items were organic. Packaging was rare, perhaps some paper wrap. Kids got hand-me-downs for clothes, so large families would eek out every last thread and use patches, darn socks, resoled shoes, and looked after their cloths. Things were mended, often made from wood, and shared. I.e. not thrown in a landfill. So, the cost of living was lower by design and necessity. Therefore, larger numbers of children in a household could be raised. We live in different times that are more expensive because retail manufacturers and the economy require us to buy new things and throw good stuff away.

[@GonzoT38]

@@grumblewoof4721 what's the point of so-called raising so many children if in order to do so, lifestyle becomes so austere. There's a true catch-22 in that argument, from where I sit. I'm not being facetious, what's the point of low "per capita" cost of living, if that life is sh!t?

[@iBeo01]

Money is one thing. Culture is another thing. No women today are worth having kids with. You’ll just end up divorced and broke. Not even will smith could keep his wife from getting clapped

[@metallicamaiden24]

If I can't afford it. It doesn't happen. Easy.

[@jerryrichardson2799]

"The problem is old people". Remember, someday _you'll_ be "old" too, _if_ you're lucky. As for my relatives and myself, I hope we all live to be old.

[@misspat7555]

The problem is wealthy people. Who tend to also be Boomers, AKA old. I wouldn’t go after the Boomers who didn’t manage to make bank.

[@jerryrichardson2799]

​@@misspat7555Most didn't, my parents, sister, and myself are _not_ wealthy at all. My sister and I are late Boomers.

[@RuskiArtem]

This is a great quality video, and interesting information, thanks man.

[@markc5123]

The super rich aren’t getting taxed at 90 percent anymore like they were when Eisenhower was president. We need to bring this back now. Everyone was able to buy a home and have kids then.

[@ErickaWilliamsCC]

will not fix your financial problems

[@uss-dh7909]

That will cause the rich to flee and then we'll just end up with masses of poor that will get taxed to death. Hard to have an economy when you don't have people.

[@darlantro]

Corporate stock buybacks have become a significant factor shifting the stock market away from reflecting real income. Something that used to be illegal as stock price manipulation and is now just an expected practice to compete with other companies. The company I work at just this year made big R&D cuts and layoffs but still made sure to buy back billions in stock to defend the stock price against shorting.

[@jeffreycheng5984]

"The Federal Reserve System is not Federal; it has no reserves, and is not even a system at all. But rather an international criminal syndicate."- Eustace Mullins.

[@BurakkuHishou]

Well, if you think about it: -women entered the workforce, practically doubling the available selection of workers, taking leverage away from workers and into the hands of corporations. -increased illegal immigration further compounds this issue because now the workforce isnt doubling, its tripling. -Programs like DEI are further harming the workforce by excluding viable candidates in favor of superficial standards. Companies are increasing risk unnecessarily. -Schools are actually moving away from necessary skills that children should learn, things like stock markets, financials, home ec, etc. This leads to a greater percentage of people relying solely on a wage based income, unsure of other sources. These are just the work related and financial problems. Then you had the social problems: -feminism further decreased birth rates from increased incentive to join the workforce, discouraging nuclear families, me too fears and lawsuits, etc. -government caused disincentives to get married through things like "No fault divorce," skewed family court systems, alimony and child support, etc. Theres just so many things wrong, and the way to fix them is to go against the new order thats been constructed, ehich is gonna tick off a lot of people.

[@nickelbutt]

Nope, wrong, wrong wrong, wrong, wrong. How did you watch this video and think feminism is the cause of the low birth rates? Its stagnant wages you moron. As a man, i cant afford to have a child because my employers treats me like a wage slave. This is a problem with corporate abuse of power. Period.

[@chuckdude514]

Based, DEI is failing for the same reason Nazism failed: there is no master race, so by excluding currently oppressed groups (whites, men, non-trans) out you're essentially just isolating yourself from new ideas. Oh well, I guess history will just repeat itself yet again...

[@nickelbutt]

@@TheCappucinochannel-os4ne Cope.

[@nickelbutt]

@@TheCappucinochannel-os4ne What i got from this: Conservatives are pro-low pay for parents.

[@funginimp]

The data showed the lion's share of birth rate decrease came from women entering the workforce. I'd argue the pay and support systems would have to be astronomical to overcome that factor to where we'd return to 1960s levels.

[@Whoville814]

Yep. Women should not work if you want high birthrates. If you allow them into the workforce. Two things happen the first is reduction on wages and the second is a higher entry to breeding due to raised standards.

[@michaeldunphy796]

Real personal income is nearly double what it was in the 1960s

[@Eyes0penNoFear]

The 1960's was also when birth control first became available

[@iansane1928]

Exactly! There are many many reasons why the birthrate has declined. Thank you for pointing out one more. This video is complete trash.

[@theBear89451]

@@michaeldunphy796 Sticky wages trail other prices. It took years for the increased supply of labor to makes its way into lower salaries.

[@dennisanderson3036]

The transfer payments ended quickly for individuals but continued for corporations causing the inflation

[@peachezprogramming]

America is cooked. Housing prices out of control, our cities are crumbling, our leadership is awful, and our birth rate is collapsing. Who's moving overseas with me?

[@kalef1234]

estoy aprendiendo espanol para puedo vivir en Chile y mira los estados unidos go to shambles

[@MjV-jd2lo]

As long as the United States is still united, there is still hope for us to change it and mold our economy to work for the people once again. Capitalism got us started but it is starting to become our bain. We need to reconfigure capitalism to work for the middle class once again and it started with trickle up economy vs trickle down economy

[@harrellt1405]

Birth rate dont matter as long as there is immigration. Well be fine compared to other countries like korea and japan

[@edubmf]

I will swap with you at the Canadian border *today*

[@peachezprogramming]

@@edubmf Canada is just America Lite

[@goatgodbydesign]

The government hopes no one remembers the difference between medean and mode... The mode income is closer to $20,000

[@AlecMuller]

While the economics certainly don't help, I think it's a cultural issue more than an economic one. People in living 100+ years ago were poorer than we are now, yet still had large families. It wasn't all modern birth control either: the TFR dropped smoothly from 5 in 1860 to 2.4 in 1940, with relatively small jogs during the Roaring 20s and Great Depression. Far too many people (myself included) have inadvertently prioritized other things over being parents, and let themselves get old enough that it's far more difficult.

[@travisbplank]

Really tired of this lame narrative being paraded around. It's not cultural. Not in any significant way. People didn't suddenly say "nah I don't want kids" in a vacuum. Our ancestors reproduced more even though they could expect fewer material gains, but back in those days the housing was either affordable or the land was not bought up and occupied so you could just start building your own little mud hut if you were poor without worrying about zoning laws. And your children could be born in your mud hut and, with lucky genetics and hard work, have a reasonable shot at making a living wage. It seems that in the future, if you want your children to compete in the labor pool, they will need private schooling, constant attention to help them develop skills related to prefrontal cortex formation, they will need to have an investment account started so they might be able to afford a car to start off with, etc. The cost of simply having a house and being considered an actual member of this society has gotten so astronomically large that people who make less than 100k a year are saying "that's a wrap, I guess my society has no need for me" and they are peacefully leaving the gene pool.

[@AlecMuller]

@@travisbplank Be tired. Ignore the fact that the *lowest-quintile* household income group in the US in 2022 earned slightly more (inflation adjusted) than the *average* household in 1916 (when households had far more people). Tell people, "The birthrate decline is all economics. Average couples today just can't afford kids on 4.5 times the inflation-adjusted household income from 100 years ago. There's no need to change your sub-culture. Keep watching the advertisements. Keep grinding for the corporations. *Definitely* keep buying their stuff." Life has always been hard. Giving up is lame, and the people whose great grandchildren will venture out into the stars won't be the ones who dismiss the possibility that they're capable of improving their sub-culture to get through this evolutionary bottleneck.

[@theBear89451]

@@AlecMuller Exactly, fertility rate is inversely proportional to income, the demo-economic paradox.

[@travisbplank]

@AlecMuller Blah blah blah, claims with no sources, we're going to the stars bro trust me. Same techno-optimist horseshit over and over again. None of you have anything meaningful to say. Just wanton ego stroking imagining that your little swimmers are going to grow up masters of the Universe and not slaves or sterilized once they have outlived their usefulness. And I know they're not toing to be too bright sonce youre comparing household income in the early 1900s (single income) to household income in the 2020s (two earners) and imagine youve made some point about how life is easier now or some other crap. Your descendants will visit the stars in the same way that the washing machine allowed for more free time for American families and AI will free us all to work in fields that suit our passions more.

[@jimpaddy79]

@@AlecMuller But you could us children as labor in 1916 so in many ways they were an assets, also if you children in the materiel conditions many did in 1916 they would be taken off you by social services today, so it not a like for like comparison

[@jasongrig]

If you run a liner regression these charts look very different. What is the argument for non linear regr?

[@MonkeyLaughing101]

Correlation doesn't equal causation. There's a lot of other factors contributing to lower birth rates, such as the reduction in overall dating and the way apps have distorted the dating market.

[@silvad314]

So interesting analyzing mankind with real numbers. Love it

[@FPCCEM]

Transfer payments, sounds like a great idea, with the best intentions. What could possibly go wrong?

[@666pss]

The same could be said about bailouts and corporate tax cuts

[@kaybrown7733]

​@@666pssAnd yet, they never bring that up. They cry about student loan forgiveness but say nothing about the ppp loan forgiveness. They simply don't like giving money to anyone except the wealthy.

[@iwiffitthitotonacc4673]

​@@666pssYou see, corporate handouts are good, handouts to poor people are bad. Why? Poorer people are more likely to be brown, obviously!!!

[@tellsparck]

@@666pss Yeah, what about paying fair wages and benefits? These have stagnated in America since the late 80s and nineties.

[@Dan16673]

​@@tellsparckblame the fed

[@curbstoner735]

Great video as usual. Great graphics, explained thoroughly. One small bone: financial security does not prefigure household formation. Family and household formation finds its genesis in the divine love shared between man and woman. This is not a rational, emprical, nor statistical computation one makes prior to having children. The stories of the Puritans and Pilgrims who first settled America had as much to lose as any population in human history. But their hope lay in faith. We have a spiritual crisis that is described perfectly in the argument to not raise kids when "the future" looks bleak. Its an impotence saturated with pessimism, and it wreaks of fear and insecurity. God is with you.

[@chrism8180]

Faith is fantasy, it's a tool of manipulation, like manifest destiny or the people traveling west for gold. You believe things will work out to your benefit. The reality is you get sick, go broke family dies of disease ect. Survivorship bias, you don't hear from the ones who don't make it. As conscious beings we can logically assess these things and say, nah not worth the risk. If you want to stoke the fires go right ahead, but it will not change the fact you are lying to yourself.

[@the_expidition427]

Saving this

[@MultiAnne36]

I bet the puritan and pilgrims women didn't have to consider the cost of daycare so they could work outside of the home. I'm just saying there are financial considerations to contend with now that didnt exist in the past.

[@johnschmidt1262]

Can we track the 2008 downturn to any known policy?

[@Judep4237]

Ronald Regan’s deregulation of the banking industry

[@TheGrimFoot]

A job doesnt change anything if you cant afford a 1 bedroom apartment with the wages offered.

[@Undefined14]

Hot damn those charts look bad. I knew things were bad but wow.

[@freesk8]

Great explanation. I wish politicians understood this. Or cared about it.

[@FrankCirillo94]

rental income is not income, it's another consumers rent burden crisis

[@chrism8180]

Exactly, passive income is really just exploiting someone else for a profit

[@Jimraynor45]

So what, renters don't benefit from having a place to live?! Its a voluntary exchange where both parties benefit.

[@Mankorra_Gomorrah]

The stock market is making such insane gains *because* the wages haven’t kept up with inflation. They are charging more and paying less which looks great in quarterly reports and yearly profit statements but is rapidly ripping the bottom out of the economy.

[@boot-strapper]

Pre pandemic I was making 200k. Now I can only muster 140k, and now we have inflation. I feel poor AF compared to 2019…

[@stevesmith-sb2df]

Could you plot the number of jobs outsourced along with the real income for 1978- present?

[@wr85487]

Declining birth rate? Laughs in South Korean

[@iwiffitthitotonacc4673]

SK has similar if not exactly the same cause for said low birth rates.

[@Augustus-Sunny]

It's their women's attitude, coupled with their financial prosperity

[@shamelessdp]

My fave video of yours so far, great job

[@apple1231230]

It would appear that at least the USA is becoming more Darwinian by the year. Survival of the fittest in the wealthiest country of the world where a small number become incredibly well off and the majority are left to serve. Luckily I very much plan to be among the few very wealthy, but this is certainly a failure. A very complex failure though. There are massive benefits to a risk reward system which guarantees nothing but allows for anything. Great for pioneering, not so great for just living a chill meaningful life. Cut throat really

[@Kuzyapso]

What's sad is that the solution is very simple. The government needs to care about the employee in whatever way it could. Raise minimum wages, protect unions, ensure good healthcare etc The corporations will do whatever they need to in order to make money and they will succeed. But in our reality we are begging corporations themselves to NOT make record profits and instead pay employees a high wage. What do you think they are going to choose to do?

[@apple1231230]

@@Kuzyapso this would probably help mitigate a lot of suffering while simultaneously plummeting any growth into stagnation, much how Europe is nowhere near as powerful or influential as they once were, but are generally happier it seems for most countries. The usa is already on this path without the societal benefits as chinas power rises. That's the problem, you become better for the people and then a worse government that isn't rises to power and you hope they dont screw the rest of the world. much of the rest of the world does not like what the USA has done to them, how would we feel if china imposed their policies over us?

[@the_expidition427]

Saving this

[@ChrisHillASMR]

its how sociopaths stay alive, otherwise society would formulate against them eventually naturally with cooperative open source projects that would detroy their centralized power structures. Once people realized certain types of people were actual parasites and irredeemably evil, they would be eliminated once and for all. They have to create chaos so people dont focus on them. jews mostly & the sellouts they hire, they love blacks