This indicator declined -16% before 2008. It's at -9% right now.

In this video, we look into the Duncan Leading Index, a tool designed to monitor three key variables of the cyclical economy.
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Video edited by:
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DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Any securities, trading, or market discussion is incidental and solely for entertainment. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of its initial release date. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to this video.

[@kortyEdna825]

I wonder if people that experienced the 2008 crash had it easier because this market conditions are driving me to insanity, my portfolio has lost over $27000 this month. alone my profits are tanking and I'm don't see my retirement turning out well when I can't even grow my stagnant reserve.

[@carssimplified2195]

The mkt has gone berserk! regardless of experience level, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.

[@PatrickFitzgerald-cx6io]

I wholeheartedly concur; I'm 60 years old, just retired, and have about $1,250,000 in non-retirement assets. Compared to the whole value of my portfolio during the last three years, I have no debt and a very little amount of money in retirement accounts. To be completely honest, the information provided by invt-advisors can only be ignored but not neglected. Simply undertake research to choose a trustworthy one.

[@KaurKhangura]

Impressive can you share more info?

[@PatrickFitzgerald-cx6io]

Marisa Michelle Litwinsky’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@KaurKhangura]

Interesting. I am on her site doing my due diligence. She seems proficient. I wrote her an email and scheduled a phone call.

[@jimmyz5831]

My hemorrhoids flared up right before the crash of 2008. I'll keep you posted.

[@michaelsmith5583]

Hahahaha

[@Jakub189]

nice. Thanks, mate.

[@oB_Session]

Couldn’t have said it better myself. I can’t tell you how many indicators were supposed to predict a recession last year, the year before, they year before that, and so on. They always come out with a new one. Next year there will be the zidbakldnsnan indicator. I trust your hemorrhoids more than all of them.

[@danielmrtns]

The hemorrhoid index…

[@meowmix0008]

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha

[@oilman7718]

I haven’t found a better channel anywhere on any platform that does a better job of distilling the critical essence from the complex stew of economic data. Great work!

[@EPBResearch]

Thanks 👍

[@johannesfourie4053]

For sure !! 5 Stars

[@beefybitcoin8085]

@@EPBResearch Do you read this straight off of seeking Alpha. lol

[@KippinCollars]

That multi-year time lag between the index peaking and a recession is wild.

[@deseosuho]

Thanks for the upload. I would love to see some commentary on comparison of YOY growth in the monthly nonfarm payrolls broken out for full-time and part-time jobs. When I look at it I see an absolute "alligator jaws" pattern right now, with part time skyrocketing and full-time plummeting when they used to move in tandem. The pattern is just like we saw in Q4 2007/Q1 2008.

[@austinrogers2632]

Thanks for providing such high-quality content, Eric. My thoughts and prayers are with you. Wishing you good health and a swift recovery!

[@veritechy]

Thank you. You make it so clear and understandable!

[@Micah1Powell]

Your videos are the only ones I don't watch speed up. Excellent content, information, and execution.

[@JVerstry]

Fascinating, thanks for making that video !!!

[@Jeremytorgersonofficial]

Excellent video. Thank you.

[@jamesedwards8308]

I am an economist. This is perhaps the only site that is accurate every single time. Nice work.

[@superduper9357]

No economist is 100% right, that's why economics is not a precise science.

[@deseosuho]

I'm a big fan of Eric too

[@richandunreachable]

are you on discord james so we connect and talk more about the markets

[@lee-yz6ze]

I am also economist. You send money to China. China do very well right now please thank you please. Big big return. Unprecedented return!!! You do now!

[@BobHank2]

An economist! Wow. Did you study theories of the forces that drive the Economy, and can analyze today's events to determine tomorrow's outcomes?

[@tommy64x29]

Small and micro caps seem to more realistically mirror the economy cycles. Need to check, what could be read just from the price chart of these caps. Very good video. Many thanks.

[@HotelBravo556]

I love you your videos just end once all relevant info has been transmitted. No outro. Just silence as to say “now go away”

[@EPBResearch]

Haha :)

[@MichaelChengSanJose]

The leading indicators you’ve been showing have called for a recession for the past 12-18 months. While I can’t rule out a recession in the next 12-18 months, I believe the odds are favorable enough to continue making targeted investments. Standing by in the current inflationary environment is not a viable option except for the very well heeled and experienced.

[@smoothseth4561]

Can this indicator be used for the Canadian economy?​@@EPBResearch

[@7minutosconlabiblia145]

Thanks!

[@Galaxie00]

Great content. thank you. Some of the best videos I have seen. You begin with an basic premise of the make up of the indicator. I expect in reality not including Government spending is the factor throwing off the accuracy of the LI currently. Government expenditure is large but now hardly stable at the moment. I believe this is more than making up for the modified Duncan index somewhat decline.

[@blank-964]

Thanks

[@d_all_in]

Best econ channel

[@jasongrig]

very good video

[@crash_davis]

Very interesting.

[@Motivational-Mango]

I am an economic market crash dynamic specialist scholar, and I think this looks correct

[@timmySmith-jl8jx]

You’re great!

[@We_Must_Resist]

Brilliant.

[@Dieselpwr]

With more strict regulations we would not have such extreme fluctuations that why laws where passed in 1929 to prevent a depression but those was lifted by Regan in the 1980s

[@andreapayneconnally390]

this needs to be a video. I want to know those laws and the reason they were appealed.

[@LaFonteCheVi]

Wrong, they were lifted by Clinton with the repeal of Glass-Steagall

[@mrard1]

More than your economic data, I want to learn how you got to a point where you can synthesize information in such a beautiful way! I work in healthcare and am often told “Execution is the chariot of genius.” If I could present my data and speak to it like you do, I know I could do well for myself. Did you attend a program or school?

[@EPBResearch]

Wow, thank you!

[@agustintrombetta782]

Brillant!

[@LCTesla]

what would be a good way to keep track of this indicator over longer periods of time? is it published anywhere, or is there software that can be used to compile this time series?

[@PSR1791]

Just realized I missed a ton of videos !!! No notifications. Views per video appear down as well. Turned on notifications for all videos now.

[@piRatCaptain]

I would like you to talk about the stagflation we have been in the last 16 years and what a recessions looks like in that kind of environment

[@snakeonia7542]

So buy signal? Thanks

[@MorganHill8]

I am feeling the pain

[@lukedornon960]

Can you explain the apparent secular rise in the index in the last 20 years? Despite falling 9%the index remains above all prior peaks

[@michelramon5786]

The AI bubble gonna be crazy

[@grownupgaming]

large caps will avoid the worst for us. Lets go magnificent seven!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@JulioFastcruise]

You know that there are alternatives to hide in to risk assets

[@bdek68]

Wow! The absolute worst place to be in my opinion. You’re assuming no recession I guess?

[@ssmall4164]

the obsession with 2008 and everyone trying to be the man who said " look , i told you so"

[@timothyandrewnielsen]

Do you really think the economy is good?

[@ssmall4164]

Not for 99% of us but it is booming for the elites..and thats all what matters

[@Marxistsrcnts]

Very very nice graphics

[@ConnectFork]

I read that in a Patrick Bateman voice for some reason 😂

[@Marxistsrcnts]

😂

[@xavierm4866]

Excellent video

[@tellsparck]

Your videos are great and enjoyable. However, I am concerned that you have a negative bias. The recession you (and others) predicted has not materialized for the last 3 years. Can you do a retrospective analysis of what went wrong with your analysis so far?

[@ShamileII]

Continuing artificial stimulus

[@pritapp788]

Can't you see that the USA is preventing any possible recession through reckless deficit spending and debt? Called "Inflation Reduction Act", ironically. Take the figures for GDP growth and US debt over recent years and overlay them, you get a clear pattern. The illusion of a powerful economy powered by debt and money printing.

[@sb_dunk]

​@@ShamileIIThere's always some excuse. Not "the analysis was wrong" but "the government is out to get us".

[@fearandobey7]

Where can I find the DLI online to follow the data in real-time? Anybody know?

[@EPBResearch]

We track and publish the data to clients. I think you have to construct it yourself. Not sure it's an available index.

[@fearandobey7]

@@EPBResearch thanks!

[@cusodha1]

This time its different 😅

[@ShamileII]

Great video!

[@bobmanlarrydude]

I don't understand how investors and other institutionalists view the fed as a viable instrument to spear inflation. The fed reserve has tools that only influence demand side of the supply/demand equation. To really get to the heart of inflation there needs to be a MASSIVE budget reform in govt spending (the direct influence in production). This election cycle is gonna be a wild one, the current regime will certainly try to mask the growing uncertainty in the economy.

[@jamesbyrne9312]

Yes it's ok to say whats the sMe but we need to discuss what is different. Each cycle has its own time horizon.

[@thecwwshow8036]

It looks like the Duncan leading index contraction almost always happen is doubles

[@jamesedwards8308]

You might consider a custom index by adding SERVICES as the trigger when people simply stop spending. It is a service economy for the most part

[@EPBResearch]

We have plenty of those indexes, they just aren't "leading" indexes. We track Leading, Cyclical, Aggregate, and Lagging Indexes. Services consumption is generally a Lagging Indicator.

[@jamesedwards8308]

I wrote trigger I understand leading. But a chart where interacts would be visually helpful Nice work thank you

[@FutureGuy47]

@@jamesedwards8308trigger for what? As a lagging indicator its useless to predict recessions.

[@blabla903]

The stock market is a chaotic system. Chaotic systems cannot be predicted. There is the answer.

[@joey86bu1]

The real question is are farts supposed to be runny?

[@jasongrig]

why is the denominator real final sales (you skipped that bit and only mentioned the nominator)? and how do you get from nominal to real? with core PCE?

[@AJourneyOfYourSoul]

All I know is I go to the gym during the day, around 10am, during the week (I am retired), and it is packed with 20-35 year old people. It seems like hardly anyone works anymore.

[@zyt4zcn]

I go to the gym at 2pm because can do my workout faster due to less people in the gym so that I can dedicate more time overall for work

[@AJourneyOfYourSoul]

@@zyt4zcn I am sure lots of these people work odd hours/nights or weekends so have weekdays off etc… but it seems so much more crowded compared to the past. Some days I just want to ask everyone and see what they say, lol.

[@mrjoshuagordon]

@@AJourneyOfYourSoul You can get as much done in 30 hours as 40 hours. Possibly even less than 30 hours.

[@pritapp788]

Loads of 20-35 year olds are in higher education anyway. Unless they have part time employment on top of that, it leaves them plenty of time to be in the gym.

[@wread1982]

Tell us more what your crystal ball says 🔮🔮🔮

[@steamer2k319]

Government expenditures are counted as a boon to GDP? Seems like that could explain a lot of problems 🙄. To the degree we want an actual measure of prosperity, it'd be more like just the second and third components: * Private Investment * Net Exports ...and for exports what we really want is a measure of how many goods and services foreign countries 'owe' us, discounted by how likely they are to ever materially compensate us. I suppose by that token, domestic investment can be similarly adjusted to expect some "market" rate of return where many investments are expected to fail. Personal and government consumption are a mixed bag. Did we really enjoy eating gruel or was it just a necessity to provide enough calories to keep going--a cost of doing business? Same question if instead we ate a bunch of candy. Same for recreation. Maybe an entertaining movie amuses us for two hours and thereby enables us to work for four hours. But maybe spending those two hours on a dopamine detoxifying meditation or walk would have enabled us to complete six hours of productivity. It's hard to know how much consumption should be counted as domestic "product" vs. hedonistic annihilation.

[@pritapp788]

Aye. Not to mention the classic example: I sell something to you for $20k, you sell something else to me for $20k. No wealth was created and we both have the same amount of money left than we had before those transactions, but both transactions count towards increasing GDP. The housing market works very much like that. People selling expensive real estate to one another create the illusion of prosperity in GDP terms.

[@ys7221]

Wish the text was larger on this video. Cant imagine many people are watching this in a big tv

[@TheBen4151]

Please start making follow ups to your past videos

[@asdfgoogle]

Shame there isn't any recent data.

[@handlemonium]

So a dump late next year and a bottoming in 2026 forcasted for Bitcoin could coincide with a recession if things drag out for another 1-2 years 👍

[@SC-sh6ux]

during my lifetime the only indicator that has really mattered, both home and abroad, is demographic growth (or decline).

[@fakename45]

I notice that the index appeared to predict a busy in 1966, but there was growth before the next recession. What happened during that period?

[@josephsloop8865]

Real GDP did contract for one quarter in 1966.

[@champstar9669]

The more you can stick to the facts/numbers and point out that the mainstream narrative is a LIE, the more popular your channel will be.

[@longydongy1004]

I gotta fillin the 💩 show happens in 2025

[@marksgoogle4360]

I didn't need a chart to know replacing Trump with Biden wasn't going to work out...

[@bloxer9563]

😂 you are a joke

[@sb_dunk]

That's because you've been brainwashed and have no idea what Trump or Biden have done to positively or negatively affect the economy. Idk if you watch Fox News, or right wing KZbin streamers, but you need to turn that off before your brain becomes completely melted.

[@eyalkarni3290]

It seems like you fool yourself. Dunken index highly correlate with gdp itself which highly correlate woth ression. There is no use in gauge that tell you ression in 2 up to 3 years, as every 10 15 years there is recession anyway.

[@wanderingfido]

As a layperson, I don't really GAF about how the system works. I just want to know what is going on currently. Because the mainstream media sure as hell ain't gonna tell us. So save the long winded explanations for a college lecture. Do people still go to those? Probably not.

[@miket2916]

I would sell out too. Make that money. (Recession and bearish videos and titles catering to that etc)

[@robertlammers-lx1ex]

The fin-Market;s have underperformed the U.S. economy as fear of inflation hammers the prices of stock;s and bonds. My portfoliio of $750k is down to $592k any recommendation;s to scale up my return;s during this crash will be highly appreciated.

[@LourencoGrenberg]

For the average individual, the tactics are rather demanding. Actually, most of them are effectively completed by professionals who possess the necessary knowledge and skill sets to carry out such trades.

[@DrunkenXiGinPing]

Dunken indicator , simply put, states, if there are less customers at Dunken Donuts a recession will surely follow soon !!!! Right now the indicator stands at 25 k donuts a day. The average is 32k a day. So, yes, we are all going to die !

[@johnd.5601]

Russia invented the hypersonic missile back then. That's when the world went full cowards. If this business cycle happens again money will be the least of my concerns. Look what happened during covid-19. It will be much worse. The wealthiest Americans would be very unsafe. The entire country would be uncomfortable and dangerous. Let's all hope that this is not a possibility.

[@bodlondebllc]

first

[@joshuaward9937]

…but what about MALE models?

[@2b_0r_n0t_2b]

index is flawed, current macro backdrop has nothing to do with those categories. basically wearing the wrong prescription glasses, enjoy being short.

[@draye872]

I am not an economist. This is perhaps the only site that is accurate every single time. Nice work.