They did go up 50x, though. They just tanked when the pandemic was over. Seems like this list was only relevant to day traders.
@kostadin_ristovski2 күн бұрын
You are right that many of these companies went up significantly during the hype madness. However, most of that increase happened before the question was asked. So, to expect 50x on top of that, is crazy.
@Value_Geek94474 күн бұрын
"Everyone is a genius in a bull market"
@kostadin_ristovski4 күн бұрын
Exactly!
@victorhinvesting5 күн бұрын
Good video. I would be intereted in your thought on CHGG
@kostadin_ristovski5 күн бұрын
Thank you for the suggestion Victor.
@beantownUS5 күн бұрын
you should do WD-40 next 😭
@kostadin_ristovski5 күн бұрын
Thank you for the suggestion!
@ibrahimciftci95995 күн бұрын
Grab Holdings is a great option to invest into Southeast Asia and worth a look. They are essentially the Uber of Southeast Asia.
@barryaherne21510 күн бұрын
I'm not sure if this had been brought up in previous earnings calls, but I have seen Celsius in China, so they have a market there, too. That being said, in my local Chinese supermarket, Monster are front and centre, you cannot miss them; they are in the drinks aisle, they are in the fridges dotted around the supermarket, and they are in a large stand before the checkouts, and in small fridges *at* the checkout. I found Celsius by accident in one of the drinks aisles, but only because I was looking for a Gatorade. Now, this isn't to say anything bad about Celsius, but they are up against a juggernaut. Their brand is also a little bland. Is it water, is it fruit, it's not clear at a glance. Red Bull has extreme sports, Monster has gaming and an element of the fitness world. Celsius has what? It really needs work in this area. Unrelated, but I'm a little surprised that Red Bull is so high when you can buy generic supermarket brand alternatives for a quarter of the price. Part of Monster's strength is the abundance of flavours, especially their sugar free options, so I'm a little shocked that one-flavour RB dominates.
@kostadin_ristovski10 күн бұрын
Thank you for sharing your experience. Also, thank you for sharing your thoughts, those are all very good points.
@gorandamchevski10 күн бұрын
Didn't know PEP is a key player :) Plugged in some numbers on my side, 30% growth next year, 25% for the 4 years after that, converging on a terminal rate in Y-10. End up with revenues of $8B Assume EBIT reaches 23%, I get an intrinsic value of 12B by using an initial 10% discount. Seems the company is trading at a slight premium, but the key question to answer is HOW will Celsius get from $1.4B to $8B in sales. I have seen optimistic growth assumptions with SAM before and it didn't end well. Again, answering the HOW is key for Celsius - I'm not saying it won't grow, I just lack the info to make a judgement. Great video, thank you!
@kostadin_ristovski10 күн бұрын
Glad you enjoyed the video Goran. Indeed, there's a lot of uncertainty and the future growth is the key variable.
@leonardoghini178210 күн бұрын
Great video, as usual!
@kostadin_ristovski10 күн бұрын
@@leonardoghini1782 Thank you!
@altairjb16 күн бұрын
If you predict a crash every month, eventually you'll be right
@gorandamchevski21 күн бұрын
Even with their IP moat, NVDA more than most companies at the moment, needs to keep up with leading edge innovation to retain their valuation. Employees taking it easy can have an impact.
@kostadin_ristovski20 күн бұрын
I couldn’t agree more.
@shortclimberbeta22 күн бұрын
The four most dangerous words are: it's different this time - John Templeton. Yes tech companies are less capital intensive but it doesn't mean they're safer than traditional manufacturers. I'd argue that tech companies are more likely to be disrupted: google to yahoo, facebook to myspace
@kostadin_ristovski22 күн бұрын
I do agree with you that "It is different this time" is used often, and especially without any data to back it up. As for the last part, there is an argument to be made both for and against your thesis that tech companies are more likely to be disrupted. I do find it a gray area to be honest. Yes, some companies can be disrupted with less capital done the manufacturing ones, however, there's the value of networks in place, that the manufacturing companies do not have.
@johnsuckher303729 күн бұрын
oh some Patrick style video. If I compare products I evaluate them by price per oz/kg/liter. Also in EU there slowly rolling out lowest price per 30/90 days to maybe better catch real discounts but I noticed shops recently just do 1+1, 2+1 instead of usual some percentage off.
@kostadin_ristovski29 күн бұрын
Hi there! Indeed, your way of comparing is the best one to avoid shrinkflation. The 1+1 or 2+1 are amazing ways to save money in the long run! P.S. I assume you're referring to Patrick Boyle? If so, I do like him, but I find his videos a bit too long.
@johnsuckher303729 күн бұрын
@@kostadin_ristovski 1+1 I believe is a way to get around displaying lowest price requirement but it's done by stores, not product makers. One way to mislead buyers about "fair" price. Regarding Patrick, yes, the type of giving research backed direct talk in one take. I like listening x1.75 while biking since it doesn't rely on graphics.
@szilardbodnar7729Ай бұрын
Great video! Also just to mention in Hungary where I live the government made a rule that all the shops need to put a sign next to a product which size has been shrinken.
@kostadin_ristovskiАй бұрын
I am glad that you enjoyed the video and thank you for sharing the rule. It is definitely an interesting approach to fight shrinkflation.
@jordib3747Ай бұрын
Respectfully, fuck that study, I guarantee you Id be way happier just being rich and being able to do the fuck I want instead of having to work 2 badly paid jobs having to listen to asshole bosses giving me orders everyday
@kostadin_ristovskiАй бұрын
Hey Jordi, I do think that this study makes sense above a certain threshold and it has been proven through multiple studies. The desires of an average human are always slightly higher than the income.
@jordib3747Ай бұрын
@@kostadin_ristovski Ye I agree I experienced it myself once I got my salary multiplied x3 after I finished my studies (cooking school) felt cool at first but it very quickly became too slow a pace. I think that threshold u mention is not caring about your bills, thats the point I want to reach and the reason Im working 2 jobs in the first place but until then happiness does improve w how much money I have in my bank account
@miriamllauceАй бұрын
Hi there, Interesting analysis - the last couple of weeks have been very interesting. I’m wondering if you’d do an update on this. Time to buy more?
@kostadin_ristovskiАй бұрын
Hi there, are you referring to the accelerated buybacks?
@perovicbАй бұрын
Odlican video!
@kostadin_ristovskiАй бұрын
Hvala!
@wirsytАй бұрын
Great to see that you are back Kosta! Very informative video as always!
@kostadin_ristovskiАй бұрын
Glad to be back, thank you for the support, as always!
@victorhinvestingАй бұрын
Thank you Kosta, I believe the market is over valued at this time and we due for a solid pull back
@kostadin_ristovskiАй бұрын
You could be right!
@Oxazepam652 ай бұрын
It went down 80% since that video was recorded, only 9 months ago.
@kostadin_ristovski2 ай бұрын
Yes, that is correct. I don't think this price movement is justified by the fundamentals. It was driven by the management lowering the guidance a few times in a short period of time.
@ronaldmadena47462 ай бұрын
Please cover BNED Barnes and Noble. They are heavily shorted and undervalued with billions in revenue. They have changed their business model and I think it could squeeze like GameStop. Probably going to load some tomorrow but I’d love to hear your thoughts on it
@kostadin_ristovski2 ай бұрын
Thanks. I will add it to my list.
@innocenti672 ай бұрын
like you, I am revisiting this as i owned it a few years ago. I dont quite understand your Intrinsic Valuation. I have very similar revenue, Ebit, capex numbers but very different outcome. My DCF says its worth £185 using a 10.5% WACC, with terminal (2012) revenues 103m, Ebitda 23.7m, capex 4.1m therefore FCF pre interested 15.3m. My 10yr DCF value is £100m inc the £10m cash therefore terminal (11yr+) is £73m
@kostadin_ristovski2 ай бұрын
Hey there, if you have similar revenue, ebit, capex, wacc, etc, it doesn't make sense to have such a large difference in the outcome. In theory, if you have a FCF of 10m/year, and you have a WACC of 10.5%, the only explanation for coming up with such a high valuation is to have a high implied revenue growth in year 10. So, either there is something going wrong in your model or you have a much higher multiple in year 10 (through high expected revenue growth).
@innocenti672 ай бұрын
@@kostadin_ristovski my terminal growth is 3%. It’s the same model I have used for decades as a hedge fund manager
@GuilhermePereira-qy7el3 ай бұрын
Hey mate, is everything fine? Missing your videos...
@kostadin_ristovski3 ай бұрын
Hey there, thank you for the message. Everything is good, I've been traveling for a month with my family, and also quite busy with work. I have a few videos in the pipeline, and I'm to have the next one out on Sunday (next week).
@Stefan89.3 ай бұрын
Wat is the fair value of Tesla today? Are we baying or not?
@kostadin_ristovski3 ай бұрын
I already have Tesla in my portfolio. Should the price go down more, I'm happy to increase the position.
@Stefan89.3 ай бұрын
One more video about Tesla?
@kostadin_ristovski3 ай бұрын
Hey Stefan, I don't see any significant change in the fundamentals, so I won't be making another video for now.
@BarsonlineOrg20133 ай бұрын
If, if, if......just look at the Berkshire portfolio after the terrible 1970s, no tech, retail, some aluminum, insurances, candy....so no, tech will not solve everything and the amount and proportion it makes life better, it also takes something, which we had before and which was also essential for us as humans, like, e.g. spending more time with family and friends, instead of sitting in front of a lamp shining into your eyes, called smartphone.
@kostadin_ristovski3 ай бұрын
I agree with you that the advancement of technology has both good and bad effect on the society.
@carymiller24033 ай бұрын
Very good evaluation of the Shiller PE ratio. Fundamentally sound and logical. Thank you for this presentation
@kostadin_ristovski3 ай бұрын
My pleasure!
@joonasahonen63423 ай бұрын
Very good test on chatgpt's understanding of accounting and still relevant 1 year later, I think. I've had similar experiences myself and I notice a lot of the work being done especially by book keepers is getting either scripted, automated or "statistically accounted" based on large volume of similar invoices being processed throgh same software. There's also new wave of accounting offices that try to fully automate accountant work by combining all of the previous in their own software solutions, however, they're not doing a great job and seem to be a common subject of ridicule among people. However, what's important to note is that every day they are getting better at what they're doing, and eventually they're "good enough" for most companies and entrepreneurs. Which is good! Because using computer as a tool for anything is humane at all. We'd never allow animals to be treated like we treat office workers: Sit in your tiny cubicle for 16 hours straight during crunch time, stare at the screen 50cm from your face all day, drink stimulating chemicals so you can focus better. Eat low quality food, live in an apartment where you can always reach the closest wall no matter where you're standing.
@shadytrackmania93193 ай бұрын
Love your work man! I will definitely stay along with you on your journey on KZbin, keep up the great content brother
@kostadin_ristovski3 ай бұрын
I appreciate your support!
@user-ys8dc2ni8z3 ай бұрын
You missed palantir😂 The thing is that you can’t value once in a lifetime companies
@kostadin_ristovski3 ай бұрын
I will miss plenty of companies and I am okay with that. Palantir introduced a lot of different stuff between my valuation and today, such as the bootcamps.
@PhillipAnselRitz4 ай бұрын
Corporate taxes were also cut by 3/5, a big boost to stock values over the past several years.
@unforgivenatheist4 ай бұрын
Why can I not get straight answers about the effect on the product. Only talk of money. WHAT ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE PRODUCT?
@kostadin_ristovski4 ай бұрын
I don’t follow the question, can you elaborate?
@unforgivenatheist4 ай бұрын
@@kostadin_ristovski I am interested in how stock buybacks have a negative impact on products. Like airplane doors that don't fall off. Every vid is about money. What about quality?
@unforgivenatheist4 ай бұрын
@@kostadin_ristovski When buybacks were illegal, Boeing planes didn't just fall apart or nosedive uncontrollably. Is there no connection, or can people only focus on money?
@davenelson43344 ай бұрын
Thank you so much for explaining this! I learned so much..
@kostadin_ristovski4 ай бұрын
I appreciate your feedback, thank you.
@micheleblackburn23454 ай бұрын
Greatly appreciated 🙏
@srem19714 ай бұрын
Excellent and highly informative video. Thank you!
@kostadin_ristovski4 ай бұрын
Glad you enjoyed it!
@UmarKhan-su1vv4 ай бұрын
Very informative and concise! No fluff! Love the content man keep it coming and keep it simple!
@kostadin_ristovski4 ай бұрын
I appreciate the kind words and feedback. Thank you!