#2 Tesla Gigacast Aluminum vs Advanced High Strength Steel

[@thelimitingfactor]

Additional Notes on Variables: 1) (+) The Model 3 has a $28,000 production cost. This means Tesla could save more than what's indicated here. 2) (-/+) Tesla could keep the the battery and motors the same size. This would mean lower cost savings. However, the customer would still benefit from longer range, better MPGe, and acceleration. Thanks for your support!

[@RyanGaroogian]

Great video really looking forward to seeing these incorporated into the Model Y and see what route Tesla takes, either lower cost or longer range.

[@Crunch_dGH]

Re: Steel vs Pressed AL. Is the AL ends intended to be sacrificial crush zones, so damage pressures will minimally intrude beyond the immediate ends being crashed upon? If so, will body shops be provided pressed AL "clips" by which they can quickly impart repairs vs steel?

[@karenrobertsdottir4101]

I feel that this video understates the case. 1) Casting makes it easier to form complex shapes, with complex, deep embossed / raised ridges on any number of axes at once (as can be easily seen in the geometry of the casting). This increases the net thickness of the piece, and thus its stiffness. 2) Casting makes it easier to preform bolt holes, wiring mounts, and any number of fittings that would require extra machining or parts with conventional manufacture. 3) Apart from price, casting reduces the part and joint count. Each joint is a new opportunity for problems to emerge such as noise, improper alignment, bad welds, etc - you just get in general a better vehicle if you can keep the part count down. One could also mention that UHSS is famously a pain to work with compared to HSS and esp. mild steel.

[@Crunch_dGH]

Are Ys with both front & rear castings now being made in Fremont?

[@AndyZach]

@@karenrobertsdottir4101 Correct. One more benefit from the reduced part count is reduced inventory cost.

[@NickoSwimmer]

Jordan, this is top notch material science engineering analysis. It boggles my mind that you don't have a traditional engineering degree. You clearly are a super bright and capable guy! I'm surprised Tesla hasn't tried snatching you up 😉

[@thelimitingfactor]

🤜🤛 Thanks for the support as always Nick!

[@raddaks2039]

Shh nobody tell Dwight that Tesla makes SUVs and compact SUVs...

[@NickoSwimmer]

@@AudiTTQuattro2003 I respectfully disagree! Performing material analysis investigation, selection, and especially highlighting the magnesium strength & weight analogue study (which was then compared to aluminum), was some good engineering sleuthing. To put that all into a condensed and easy to understand presentation is where Jordan's top-notch work really shined.

[@TecnamTwin]

@@AudiTTQuattro2003 You’re speaking too soon. Tesla is already at nearly a million per year vehicle manufacturing run rate with just the two vehicle factories that it has, and the Shanghai Gigafactory hasn’t reached its peak output. Also the Fremont Factory hasn’t fully ramped the new Model S production line or even started delivering the new Model X which typically outsells the Model S. The Berlin Gigafactory is larger and more advanced than the highly efficient Shanghai Gigafactory which will improve the final product while simultaneously decreasing cost for Tesla’s European customers. Then there’s the Austin, Texas Gigafactory which is even bigger than Berlin and according to Elon will be used to test the cutting edge of Tesla’s manufacturing techniques so even more advanced than Berlin. Tesla is forecasting a 20 million a year vehicle manufacturing rate by 2030 and I believe them. They’ve got practically unlimited cash and have shown that they can build two Gigafactory simultaneously in about a year for a cost of just ~$400 million each. Contrast that with VW’s Tennessee EV plant expansion/conversion that costs $800 million or GM’s $2.2 billion dollar EV factory also in Tennessee, and you’ll start to understand Tesla’s huge capital efficiency lead.

[@danielmonge2318]

@@AudiTTQuattro2003 It's not small at all. You should not count how many cars the brand put out. Count how many they can put out on their most advanced factories. OEM does 200k at most per factory per year. Giga Shanghai's new Production Rate is 450k per year.

[@ricardokowalski1579]

For your consideration... min 5:50 an increase in thickness increases stiffness👍, but also increases deformation energy absorption 👍👍.....The required thickness of some body components is not dictated by the service loads (stiffness) , but by the crash safety requirements (energy absorption). A thicker aluminum part will require (absorb) more energy to deform/crumple than a thin steel part. This makes the thicker part better/cheaper/lighter for crash worthiness.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Niiiiiice! Thanks for the info

[@ricardokowalski1579]

@@AudiTTQuattro2003 fair point. post crash fire from a battery would take Tesla into Ford Pinto fuel tank problems.

[@quansun7633]

@@AudiTTQuattro2003 I would say this is a misplaced priority. Protecting occupancies is more important than the battery. Given the stiffness of the battery, Tesla uses the battery to share loads in protecting occupancies.

[@markplott4820]

@@quansun7633 -TESLA Already has BEST in class Safety.

[@bakedbeings]

@@quansun7633 Impact damage is a serious danger to humans, so is the explosion of a damaged lithium battery. Watch the hydraulic press channel vid where they crush a power bank 😳

[@chrisperry3525]

Elon has said his real technological advantage is in manufactring. A traditional car takes 22 hours for assembly, give or take an hour for what car/factory/brand you're looking at. I've seen tesla saying it takes 10, yes ten, hours to ass'l the 3/Y with gigacastings. So that's DOUBLE the production rate for the same size factory/workforce.

[@Tomm9y]

It's not only the throughput due to speed, less space is required for each production line as there are fewer steps, and a lot fewer robots. As the video says, there is an additional improvement in quality some defects, such as panel gaps, are only apparent further down the line. Improving the defect rate has a compound effect and makes the manufactuing more profitable.

[@terrybrown6057]

Ten hours is not that fast... Nissan Sunderland can build a car from painted shell (coming into trim line) to start up in around 6 hours or so..might be quicker with no lunch break... Each work assignment is well under 1 minute turn round.. has been the most efficient in Europe for years.. Tesla seem to think what they do is fast...haha... No where near.. what they do is brag about what they do... Need to try comparing data... Oh hang on.. he daren't...

[@HenryLoenwind]

Speed or throughput are not good key numbers to compare. A factory that produces a car in half the time but costs three times as much to build and operate is not better. You need to break down speed and throughput into their associated costs. Both in capex and running cost. Again, using half the labour but spending twice the saved cost on electricity is no win.

[@terrybrown6057]

There's another factor in play soon reducing costs of production. What to do with the main battery packs when they are no longer viable in a car. They are going back to the factories to be used as storage batteries linked to the factories own solar and wind farms. Nissan announced recently that they will be carbon neutral in the next ten years. Some going when you see the size of machines running. By reducing the third biggest cost of a car (1st being parts, 2nd being labour), the energy costs to make a car need to come down. These apply to all manufacturers.. something's they can't reduce such as labour costs but energy and parts they can control and can be ruthless. Suppliers tend to be moving nearer factories now, reducing costs of transportation and uncertainties in markets. Before covid most parts were made in very low wage countries... That's changing. The shortages of silicone chips has thrown another spanner in the works too... 90% of manufacturers are still on downtime working on and off as stocks arrive.. try buying a new car... Wait times are huge unless in stock. There's also another factor in play.. new upstart companies trying for their own slice of the cake... Market share has shuffled around a lot.. China being a huge player in the EV markets now... Consistency of quality for new companies... Can they keep it up...

[@chrisperry3525]

@@terrybrown6057 google some...22 hours labor to build a car...remember the engine and transmission, seats and more arrive ready to assemble in the body.

[@ranig2848]

Great video! I think one of the main points missing is that Tesla’s #1 objective is to increase volume. Gigapress allows them to produce more cars, more quickly (less time per car), which will increase volume and reduce cost. Tesla is aiming to replace ICE vehicles so needs to be able to produce millions and millions of cars ASAP. Finally, this is also inline with Elon’s philosophy of no part is the best part, no process is the best process. Giga casting reduces number of components drastically, reduces number of robots (so less robots to break and get out of alignment), and less processes. Bottom line - as long as it doesn’t significantly increase price, it helps with weight, NVH, less parts, higher volume, and lower price due to volume, so a win-win-win. Tesla is thinking big - and going to mega casting is a no brainer and a must to achieve volume ASAP.

[@4literv6]

@@AudiTTQuattro2003 plenty of different designs being built out on the same ev skateboards concurrently by many manufacturer's. Tesla itself uses the same platform for a cuv as it does for a sedan. Both on the 3&y and the s&x Negating your point. They also are making rear castings for the new model s which is why it's lighter now. Same machine in the same factory producing different parts at scale for 4 model's. 🤔

[@oof_Dad]

Might be easier to retool one cast machine than an entire body line... 🤷

[@benzengap6804]

@@4literv6 To add, the castings do not add to the length of the cars, ie, same casting may apply to 3 as applied to Y. Rather, the dimensions of the battery structure which I assume vary depending upon the model...However, purely theoretical as Tesla has not publicized that it will cast the 3 as well.

[@tommckinney1489]

Kinda related, but VW's chairman, Herbert Diess recently said that it takes Tesla 10 hours to make a model 3, but it takes 3 days to make a VW id.3. I assume he's talking about Giga Berlin and Al casting. He proposed tearing down some current plants and building back with more efficient plants. I think VW is getting the message, but other manufacturers....?

[@markplott4820]

they are still building COMPLIANCE EV made with OLD FASIONED car Technology.

[@rogerdsmith]

Diess said that it takes 30 hours……

[@Akira-nw4jl]

the problem is that it seems Diess is alone at Volkswagen trying to convince them. So much that he dares mention the "T" word directly. It takes guts. I hope he gets fired from Volkswagen and Tesla hires him!

[@tommckinney1489]

@@Akira-nw4jl I think all traditional auto manufacturers are facing boardroom struggles. IMO, Toyota is loosing the battle, BMW is on the fence while GM seems to be forging ahead. The recent sales numbers reported by Tesla are telling...they outsold BMW, Mercedes and Audi in the last quarter.

[@sagm33]

I don't know if it's already happened or not but Diess is facing a vote of no confidence at VW. These guys are still pretending it's 1995 and it will take Diess a miracle to survive inside a dinosaur 🙄

[@TwiztedMatt1007]

I REALLY appreciate the detail and effort you put into these videos. I love learning about the reason why something is rather than just accepting that it is with a surface level overview. You are doing outstanding work and I am always excited to see your next video!

[@johntheux9238]

For clarification, at 5:47 he is talking about flexural stiffness which is proportionnal to the cross section, lever effect and material deformation which are all proportionnal to the sheet thickness, hence the cubic power.

[@EdFrench_uk]

Good design means very little of the sheet material should undergo significant bending stress. In practice this means you don't get that cubic relationship

[@johntheux9238]

@@EdFrench_uk Well, it's under compression so buckling is an issue. But I guess that the advantage of using aluminium is that you can use simpler shapes.

[@jamesallen5850]

You're videos are so interesting. Absolutely brilliant work. I feel like I'm watching a documentary with each episode.

[@kizzik]

Thanks Jordan! Totally geeked out on your in-depth analysis. The knock-on effects are of wide ranging and long lasting benefits. Having worked as a Quality Engineer in manufacturing I cannot begin to tell you the tremendous cost benefits of do-it-once-and-done manufacturing process with the Giga Castings. By replacing 70 parts with just the rear castings in the Model Y will not only reduce manufacturing logistics cost and increase vehicle performances but increase the overall fit, form, function quality and durability of the vehicle. This will reduced after delivery servicing and increased customer satisfaction. This is the Holy Grail of manufacturing.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Hey Robert! Thanks for sharing! I love hearing insights like this from people in the industry.

[@moineaux9173]

Lol..... its only tesla that was using 70 parts for the rear.

[@moineaux9173]

The Holy grail of manufacturing is f1 technologies those people are able to extract the most power out of everything possible tbh.

[@benzengap6804]

@@moineaux9173 Are F1 cars sold to the masses?

[@christianvanderstap6257]

This new video is one of your best. You are sending most analysts to the corner of shame.

[@thelimitingfactor]

🤣 🔥 Comment of the day

[@FutureAZA]

The dives. They are so deep. Fantastic research!

[@eriktempelman2097]

Pretty decent analysis. Couple of refinements: 1. There is IMHO no universally-accepted definition of "high strength steel". So, be careful when comparing; 2. Magnesium is an oddity. Its USP's include high damping - ideal for dashboard support. Again, be careful what you compare... 3. Strength is easy to talk about until you look closer: e.g. fatigue strength and energy absorption potential are quite tricky to pin down. Keep up the good work.

[@gdnasp6359]

Excellent on all counts. A pleasure to watch and learn from your analysis. Thank you!

[@joesmackunstable]

Outstanding job Jordan! I appreciate the extraploation efforts!

[@thelimitingfactor]

I'm glad to hear it Jeff! Thanks for the support!

[@matthewdunstone4431]

I love that you don’t chase the algorithm. It makes your channel fresh and authentic.

[@steveambro7848]

Your videos and research make me much more comfortable investing so much of my net worth it TSLA. Thank you Jordan for helping me retire sooner.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Glad to provide useful information!

[@neilsurges5021]

As deep dives go this channel excels. Just subscribed.

[@daveduran8158]

Great content, and insightful comments, excellent channel you have Jordan. Thank you!

[@paulcovacich5274]

There's another cost:weight dynamic that is of increasing importance... the after sale cost of fueling/charging the vehicle increases with the weight of the vehicle. The old combustion industry didn't care, since that cost was born by the customer after they'd bought the car (the colatteral enviro cost being completely ignored for 100 years of combustion). Now with climate change driving the dynamic it becomes more important to factor in the impact of weight on the lifetime fueling requirements. Lighter total mass might eventually become more important than cheaper build and market price.

[@davidelliott5843]

I’m not usually a fan of European regulations. However they have forced car makers to improve fuel consumption and safety of passengers and pedestrians. Tesla did not want to be excluded from that market so designed its cars to exceed EU regulations.

[@andymcmeekin2532]

Great video. I’m a geological engineer but took a lot of material science courses (steel alloys, etc). Great high level laymen’s review and delivered better and in a more interesting way than in my courses haha

[@gerardvong2719]

One of best explained cost analysis

[@zilogfan]

First your videos and content are awesome. My comment intends to take nothing from that. I feel you have underestimated your emphasized savings. You made room for it but the number range in your conclusion is just very low. The plant space, labor, equipment, jigs, coatings, treatments and mechanical adjustments of the array of steel assembled into the body all add dramatically to cost. Labor and rework=more labor is king. I think the giga casting is a massive savings vs conventional builds. I offer this as an electrical engineer on a couch with an opinion in the hope that you can with your superpowers make it into more robust content at some point. Any detail is more that I have provided. Footnote: I grew four large successful manufacturing operations in my life with my opinions... Again love your work, patreon and huge fan...

[@thelimitingfactor]

Hi Eric! For sure! I was angling to underestimate. I'd also note that the MIT paper and the DOE work appeared to take into account the factors you mention above. That is, aluminum is a material just costs more, and even if gigacasting eliminates all production costs, it's about the same price as stamped aluminum. However! How many more cars is Tesla able to pump out of this line for lower capital cost? That is, I find it difficult to assess how much more quickly the lines ramp, how much higher quality they'll be, and how much that will suck money into Tesla's coffers 😀

[@zilogfan]

@@thelimitingfactor I think Aluminum sheet does not talk to a cast part from a labor and square footage perspective. The large casting is not what those papers were thinking. It is not the material, it is the complexity and piece count. Labor and variance are Huge costs, they dwarf material in manufacturing. I get the underestimate part but I think you did such a good job you underrepresented the point significantly...

[@efraim6960]

5:38 I love the BTTF reference

[@YazeedCR]

I love how so in depth you go with your videos! Patreon supporter foreveeerrr!

[@thelimitingfactor]

🤜🤛🤠

[@ilyaglinsky7905]

Wow. Really cool analysis. I remember manufacturing engineering questions in engineering economics classes I took where hypotheticals like this were worked through. Here is a real world example splendidly done. Outstanding video my friend.

[@yatinkheti2427]

Absolutely phenomenal. Can't believe the level of detail in these videos.

[@r.perzylo]

Great content, I've learnt a lot with the new casting in Tesla's production.

[@Mojo16011973]

Great video, and some really great discussion is being had below. You have attracted some knowledgeable viewers to your channel with the quality of your content Jordan.

[@thelimitingfactor]

😊 Yeah, I feel fortunate!

[@Karl-Benny]

Imagine the advantage of buying back old castings and recycling without the impurities

[@jacobleeson4763]

Yes aluminum cars also last so much longer. Without crashes in mind rust is almost solely responsible for cars needing to be scraped. Aluminum never rusts. It forms a small layer of oxide which is actually harder and more durable than normal aluminum. Aluminum parts are easily recyclable and have life spans of hundreds of year. A well maintained aluminum car without any steel could out live the owner. Especially electric cars. Less moving parts. Regardless of material gas engines will always die eventually because they break them themselves apart while in use. We could easily see cars lasting 20 30 50 even a hundred years with minimal maintenance. Carbon steel shouldn’t even exist anymore. It is one of the shity materials one could use. Regardless of what it’s properties are new a material which naturally and rapidly decomposes is useless. And the rust takes enormous amounts of energy and chemicals to recycle back into iron for making new steel. So much it’s not worth doing it. There is never, EVER a good reason to use carbon steel anymore for absolutely anything in todays world. There will always be materials better in every way that last longer and at similar or lower prices. The only reason it is used is stupidity and because if products die and need to be replaced it is profitable for manufacturers. I absolutely hate carbon steel. It is usually used in super expensive products that are disposable items because of carbon steel.

[@leeknivek]

​@jacobleeson4763 if you knew anyone in the trucking industry where they use aluminum frames on trailer bodies then you would know that aluminum will not rust but actually dissolve when exposed to salts

[@erikmoore7402]

What an awesome program. Reminds me of that show "how it's made" growing up

[@thelimitingfactor]

🤜🤛😀

[@bigd6267]

Excellent content as always

[@kjkuchma]

I wish I could give this presentation TWO "likes."

[@bitflogger]

Just to say, Magnesium and Aluminum have a similar melting point, about half of steel. Because the casting machine is made of steel with a similar melting point, and the desired crystal structure of the steel may not survive casting, casting steel seems unlikely. If possible, it would take more energy to melt the steel and cool the casting machine.

[@markplott4820]

use Japanese crucibal Steel - Tamahagane.

[@vsiegel]

Steel can not be used in die casting. The crystal structure devevelops during cooling the steel, and often further heat treatment. You typically need slow cooling, and cooling at the same rate everywhere in the part. Steel is just completely different to handle, and this method does not work.

[@pasticcinideliziosi1259]

What if… we just make a car out of water. It melts easily, takes any form and keeps that form once solid. Why arent Tesla execs thinking about this?

[@eriktempelman2097]

Correct. Steel can be cast, but with extreme difficulty, and NOT in this kind of detail. Incidentally, magnesium is a lot easier to cast than aluminium still, with noticeably longer die lifetime. Melting temperature is just one of many factors.

[@vsiegel]

@@pasticcinideliziosi1259 We have more than enough ice cars. But cars made of frozen water are new. Large ships have been build from ice, successfully.

[@Noisy_Cricket]

This channel is so awesomely infomative.

[@sigi9669]

First time I've been served one of your videos. Every follow up question I think of gets answered 30 seconds later. Top notch material, thanks! And, subscribed!

[@thelimitingfactor]

🔥🤜🤛

[@rr6013]

The MVP the Limiting Factor provides IS the technical breakdown METRICS. The technical and the breakdown method are your bread and butter for delivering tasty metrics. Because your metric never does crossover into reductionism they enable value comparison. Its a brilliant undeniable claim you build from first principles without simply beginning from a general claim working backwards. Brilliant mind!

[@thelimitingfactor]

😁🤜🤛

[@dmacdynamite]

The lack of heat treatment in aluminum means better dimensional tolerances/repeatability vs steel. They may see this as a way to improve quality control in scale up.

[@chimaobiorji5714]

I always enjoy your contents. Really informative and in simple terms.

[@PrototypeCreation]

this is the nicest presentation about cars and contemporary engineering that I`ve ever found. The decisive criteria compared in different models with credible numbers in the overall system. What a wonderful world where the quality of information seems to get better every day. For this one I`ll make an exception and share it in my local network of business people...

[@patrickm4729]

You rock! Best researched Tesla analysis out there. You deserve respect for building expertise while other Tesla KZbin videos mainly discuss ideas we already understand.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Glad to hear it Patrick! I'm surprised that 18 months into this channel there is still so much to dig up.

[@raddaks2039]

That video was 20 minutes long? I could've sworn it was five. Thanks for the deep dive! I didn't know anything about the whole aluminum vs. high-strength-steel price tradeoffs before now.

[@guidedmeditation2396]

The complexity and depth of analysis is amazing in this video. What I am most interested in is the fact that the concept/vision/imagination of this product and procedure came first and is the "Cause" while the analysis is all after the fact. This is how most if not all great advancements have been made throughout history. The root cause of everything in the physical world is the unseen spiritual world of consciousness. Elon Musk clearly has an understanding of developed intuition.

[@joe2mercs]

My guess is that your analysis is a lot more comprehensive than that carried out by most vehicle companies. I think you got it right about the inertia of sunk costs and techniques effectively dictating the continued use of established materials. Most car companies will focus on specific areas of a vehicle rather than assess it holistically. Tesla only ventured into Giga castings because it was a way to simply the manufacturing process of the rear substructure that they had developed for the model 3 and model Y, the original being a dogs breakfast of a myriad of parts that were expensive to assemble. However a good idea applied in one area often lends itself to other areas and sets in motion new trains of thought. It is only a matter of time before the electric motor outer casings become integral with the subframes as a further step in reducing parts and simplifying processes both of which contribute directly to reducing manufacturing costs.

[@thelimitingfactor]

🙌

[@davidelliott5843]

Japanese motorcycle makers often use cast aluminium frame parts. They look good and stiff structures are easier to make a than using steel tubes or steel pressings. I can see Tesla using castings for door structures and for the car sides (A, B, C pillars plus roof and sill frames). These can be welded but today’s industrial adhesives could literally glue the car together.

[@sparkpaul]

Thank you for your dedication to reinforce and building shareholders conviction. Your videos are educational and well researched. Props to you!

[@rockon7848]

@@AudiTTQuattro2003 Nothing is certain but death and taxes, and playing the market is gambling by any measure. However, I can't think of a more certain bet today than this company. The next 4 years or so will reveal the answer, afterward will be building on the successful execution of Tesla's gameplan. No, not a lock, and there is a chance I may not wake up tomorrow, but I don't bet against Elon.

[@jairosouza2029]

Thank you for sharing. It will be useful for engineering students.

[@teslatonight]

The Limiting Factor is "over"! 🤖🧡

[@rockon7848]

Speaking of advantages, you left out one of the biggies, literally orders of magnitude better QC on the panel gaps. Elon was serious about microns vs the current millimeters. Along with a brand new cutting edge paint shop, complaints about fit and finish will be history.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Covered in a previous video and will be covered again in the summary video

[@markplott4820]

Rock on - Sandy Munro also did Analysis on Tesla Gigacastings. says QC is minimal, and can Shread rejects and Damaged parts.

[@terrybrown6057]

Complaints coming from customers are compared between manufacturers at 3 months of ownership (3MIS 3 Months In Service). This data is shared across manufacturers and QA evaluation data in house is compiled by each and published so manufacturers have an idea how they're doing. But... Tesla refuse to do this.... Why do you think that is? Customer satisfaction is more than just fit and finish...it's the complete ownership package.. how satisfied with the car are you... What issues did you have as warranty claims etc... Why don't Tesla publish their data? I would guess it's not upto scratch... If your good you'd make sure it was known... I worked 30yrs inspecting quality of new vehicles.. I've seen some Tesla's parked... Oh dear... There's some real bad panel fits out there... Not saying each manufacturer is perfect but bleating on that Tesla will be perfect is a pie in the sky... In real life getting a cars panels to fit properly usually requires manual bending somewhat to get it to fit. If you think that an assembly line WILL turn out perfect panel fit you know nothing of how cars are made, how cars are adjusted or how they are repaired to be ready for the customer from new. Go on a car plant tour... You'll learn something

[@FutureSystem738]

@@terrybrown6057 Why should Tesla have to do as the legacy car manufacturers have traditionally done? Our 2 year old Model 3 is perfect, panel gaps and paint are as good as any car (confirmed by detailers), reliability has been 100%, and build quality is very near to perfect. The Tesla is MUCH better than any other new car we’ve owned, (and without counting, we have had a lot of new cars in the last 40 years.) The Tesla is just in a whole different league compared to all my previous ICE cars, which over the last 40 years includes European, American, Korean and Japanese built cars.

[@terrybrown6057]

@@FutureSystem738 as I said... As a customer you would never know how the company as a whole is performing. Yea, you have a car are happy with..great . But the truth is in warranty claims... Why do you think Elon refuses to publish warranty claims? Everyone else does. There are good cars with every company... But even with your detailers they won't have access to engineering standards and what tolerances are allowed before a fault becomes unacceptable. For example a panel that is designed to be flush +/-1mm... Each manufacturer has different levels of tolerances allowed as to what is achievable to the drawings. And what is allowed to be shipped out the door. So anyone working outside of QA at the manufacturer will never know what is allowed to be good or not. Every part has tolerances from fit n finish to even allowance on how hot an LED should be on a switch... What I'm saying is pure quality data is compared from sources of customers fault feedback and offline fault detection and treatment.

[@jamesdorrell712]

An additional advantage with casting is that you are generally provided a more flexible design space. You can more easily position the part topology (can be optimized using finite element methods) to the most efficient shape possible to get a given job done. Therefore you can use even less raw material and further decrease costs. This may also lead to more flexibility in overall assembly design, where you can position other components with more freedom. The benefits just keep coming.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Amen! It's a whole new bag of tricks!

[@jamesdorrell712]

@@AudiTTQuattro2003 It would be interesting to know the bottom-line total cost per major die iteration. Since the dies are likely lifecycle limited, much of the cost would be on the development side. Tesla's vertical integration, holistic engineering approach, and use of smaller elite teams allow them to do the engineering balancing act better than any other automobile manufacturer. It really is a joy to watch these developments roll out.

[@moineaux9173]

Wrong, the casting actually reduce your flexibility in the manufacturing. Stamping is stupid cheap and modifying a stamped part is even way easier than repairing a casting.

[@moineaux9173]

@@jamesdorrell712 uhm nope!

[@scottbobott1484]

I’m getting more and more excited when I see you posting videos. Thanks Jordan! I’m gonna have to join you on Patreon finally.

[@pmorain]

Hey Jordan, great work as always! Just curious: does the costing and cost savings include labor costs? With 1 part replacing up to or around 100 parts, I would assume there is a large amount of savings in labor just in assemblage of all that.

[@thelimitingfactor]

GREAT question! Yes, the MIT estimate included energy, labor, overhead, tool cost building cost, maintenance cost, material cost.

[@allamasadi7970]

Any plans for videos on Aptera Motors? Love your videos, have you watched any videos from the Terran Space Academy Channel? It is similar to your channel, but he talks about rocket engines and aerospace!!

[@thelimitingfactor]

Cool company but I have a backlog of other things to cover at the moment. 🤠 Nah, I hadn't seen that channel. I'll check it out!

[@helmutshotthesheriff1942]

Again a mind blowing video from Jordan 🤯🤩 Please support his brilliant work with Patreon !👍🍻

[@jrockerstein]

Gained another subscriber today! Keep up the great work!

[@geoyoshinaka5251]

As always, impressively thorough analysis and explained in terms even I am able to follow! Thank you for your excellent work

[@colinkelley6493]

It has been reported Tesla recently ordered a 12 ton gegacasting press, which will allow it to make a whole body casting, and 5,000 cars a day. My best guess is this won't/can't be used for larger vehicles like the Cycbertruck but can be used for their smaller $20k economy model hatch back. Worth checking into.

[@hugegamer5988]

The resultant stiffness is the cube of the depth of a plate in bending but you also divide by the depth of the most extreme fiber when integrating it to get the resultant deflection meaning the best way to look at stiffness is by the square and not cube.

[@andyonions7864]

Great stuff again. I see gigacastings as a real bottleneck for Tesla. Sure, they get an hour or two of production down to 3 minutes, but the process is pipelined. the fact that it takes longer to make a car (high latency) doesn't matter so long as you can make lots of them (high bandwidth). Even going 24/7 a gigapress can only do 175k/year. You've got to halve that for a 2 part subframe (front and rear), so the factories are going to need banks of gigapresses to achieve million plus run rates. It's difficult to see legacy following Tesla down this rabbit hole. As you say they have the expertise and factories set up to press and weld steel. And they probably take the view that $100 bucks (or so) that they can't even see isn't worth going after, let alone the weight reductions. So far, they've all addressed range and weight issues just by sticking massive batteries in their vehicles. And if they want a cheap vehicle to compete with Tesla on sticker price, they appear to have thrown range under a bus. I just don't see how you make the massive investments in gigacasting tech when all you have are disadvantages everywhere else on your products. Elon called it at battery day, long term, everyone has batteries and and FSD, so the only way Tesla can stay ahead is by outproducing everyone else. Most of Tesla's engineering is going into the machine that makes the machine. Legacy is screwed. Maybe they know it, hence the EV bill. Maybe they don't. Maybe they think they can transition. I can't see how they transition. And there's no way they ever catch up.

[@AndyZach]

Interesting stats on the gigacasting capacity. Where did they come from? Given that you're correct, I believe Tesla has already purchased and installed 10-12 of the presses, which puts them over 2M castings per year, or 1 million vehicles. This is not counting whatever they buy in 2022.

[@4literv6]

@@AndyZach excellent point. Another one is in a recent video idra admitted they are sold out for several years now with their latest gigapresses. 🤔

[@grahammonk8013]

One of the few vehicles that have a million/year run rate is the F150. While Tesla does plan to have a larger gigacasting as part of the Cybertruck structure, a bigger part will be the folded exoskeleton. I think that Tesla can afford one or 2 more 8,000 ton gigapress machines to keep up production rates. More interesting to me will be what they come up with for the model 2. I can see them ordering a larger number of smaller versions from IDRA.

[@AndyZach]

@@petersmangalisongoma2013 Yes, I used 3 min/piece rate to get the 175K annual rate that Andy Onions did. I believe I heard that rate from some gigacasting video here on KZbin. Are you certain there is only 1 gigapress in Shanghai? How do you know?

[@andyonions7864]

@@grahammonk8013 I think model 2 will go for a one piece casting if it can, or at least subframe and body in one each.

[@lauriedavis7088]

You compare the cost per unit weight of steel versus aluminium. When you create stamped steel parts, there is a lot of waste steel that gets thrown away. When you create cast aluminium parts there is very little waste. Are you using the amount of steel (weight) that ended up in the vehicle, or the amount of steel that was purchased - in other words, do you need to include the cost of the steel that was thrown away.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Good question! The research was pretty comprehensive, I'd have to look through all of it.

[@terrybrown6057]

The off cuts are recycled back... Not thrown away

[@lauriedavis7088]

@@terrybrown6057 I'm happy to hear that, but since the price that they get for the recycled cuts is less than the cost of new material, that difference would have to be included in the overall cost. Not sure if it significant, but it could be.

[@terrybrown6057]

@@lauriedavis7088 depends on whether the car plant has its own smelter ... Some do..

[@MrCcristof]

Nice work! There a whole area of Industrial engineering name OR, operational research, today with assembly simulation all this question can be answered, including all Capex and Opex, even what happens with cost fluctuations 😁

[@TheJesusFreeke]

Jordan, while discussing rigidity: "there's a twist." ...best pun I've heard in months

[@thelimitingfactor]

😁

[@DanaVastman]

Your analytics are exquisite! One of my favorite Patreon contributions! Fantastic work, dude!

[@ranxerox10]

Your videos are a real highlight, i enjoy them very much.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Glad to hear it and thanks for your support!

[@maheshkatechia]

Brilliant research - Tesla needs you !

[@JeremyHamaoui]

Thanks on the shootout and bravo for the perfect pronunciation. Regarding the video, I'm betting on Berlin to be 2M per year and Austin at least 3M once fully ramped.

[@retrodraggin5540]

Another opportunity for economies of scale is the possibility to use the same casting for both front and rear. maybe that's how we ended up with rear wheel steering on the Cybertruck.

[@markplott4820]

NO, gm is using the same BOF and suspension as Regular trucks , you can add Quad steer as Aftermarket option. not that hard to do. Question will be , how much Quad steer will CT get 10% or 15%.

[@chickenhawk212]

I love the random back to the future reference

[@thelimitingfactor]

😁

[@KenLord]

A new video today! How did you know it's my birthday?

[@alisonl6767]

You rock! Excellent work, young man. Your detail is impeccable.

[@realsawyermerritt]

Great content as always Jordan!

[@thelimitingfactor]

Hey thanks Sawyer! Love your work too. 🔥

[@natalieheiman3873]

How is this content free. Just phenomenal. Couldn’t be more impressed.

[@thelimitingfactor]

I'd like to thank my Patreon supporters for making it possible

[@mrtt9800]

Very in depth video.. now i know how advance tesla in manufacturing as elon said manufacturing will be tesla’s advantage in the future.. looking forward for the next video on this series. thank you.

[@RexAlfieLee]

Jordan, just a thought. In an accident the aluminium is probably harder but more easily fractured than the steel is. Instead of passing the impact through to the passengers the aluminium takes the brunt & gives way; ie crushes in the moulded areas. Steel at the battery frame is necessary for stiffer protection but would be harsher on those inside.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Amen! That's my understanding as well!

[@misteratoz]

This is breath taking research. Analysts get paid way more to do way less. No wonder they don't have a clue.

[@silentmph]

Brilliant. THANK YOU!

[@fjdkfjdk]

This is some high quality info! Thanks for putting these together.

[@ikn8chris]

great analysis; thank you!

[@robertomontagner3058]

"If everyone move to aluminium, then the price will skyrocket...it looks like may Tesla run away with the cheap aluminium...with the long term contract" Everyone seems accepting this assumption, to me seems not realistic that it will definitely play just an advantage for Tesla. Looking for a comment from a professional, thanks. Great video in any case.

[@k53847]

Casting it in one piece without heat-treat is very effective, and HS steel casting would be a lot more complex. But aluminum's lack of a fatigue limit can be a problem, I guess we'll see if the casting has been properly engineered to deal with that.

[@loonatic90]

Very interesting analysis!

[@Friedfoodie]

Excellent analysis.

[@Finlaymacnab]

You had me at microcrystalline grain structure.

[@thelimitingfactor]

🤣🤣🤣

[@alexilchenko4998]

Hey Jordan, great video as always. One thing would be great to see is what are the economics of the cost of Giga Casting machines vs cost of the Robots required for welding steal components compounded over the lifecycle of the factory output? Including equipment cost, maintenance and downtime.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Hi Alex! I don't have data on that specifically. The MIT and DOE estimates were pretty thorough though. Not exactly the right metrics we needed but I had confidence that they gave a good end result that was comparable.

[@bobwallace9753]

Excellent video. I've watched it twice, now I need to go back, slow it down, and take notes in order to get all that good info onboard. But a couple of questions: At 19:36 in the video you have a slide that briefly flashes showing the cost breakdown for a $20k EV. The battery pack cost segment of the bars. Based on what per kWh cell cost? In relation to that, the Geely EX3 EV , a subcompact crossover, which has a modest 120 to 150 mile range and appears to have decent features and might pass EU/US safety requirements is selling in China for $9,200. There may be a $2k government subsidy, however that's a perfectly adequate daily driver. I assume they're using less expensive LFP cells. How do legacy car manufacturers compete with a decent EV that could be profitably sold in the western hemisphere for well under $20k? What happens if Geely, BYD, or other Chinese manufactures open car plants in Mexico where they can spend less that US costs for labor and dodge the high cost of transoceanic shipping? Do what Ford is doing with their E-Mustang. Do most of the work in Mexico with less expensive labor then do the final assembly in the US in order to dodge import tariffs. Then the cast aluminum underbody Tesla is using. Tesla has talked about manufacturing "million mile' EV which seems possible with LFP cells. And certainly would be desirable for robotaxis and commercial fleets. Wouldn't a non-corrosive underbody greatly increase the value of an EV? Even for the retail owner who could either get many more years of service or expect to sell their used EV on for a much higher price due to the years of service remaining.

[@thelimitingfactor]

1) I think it was based on about $135/kWh, but I'd have to dig through the paper again. 2/3) They won't. They try to offer something premium and Chinese companies will pull a Toyota. 4) 💯 Yes!

[@bobwallace9753]

@@thelimitingfactor Thanks. When Sandy Munro tore down the Model Y his team determined that it cost $82/kWh for the cells Tesla was using. Materials and manufacturing cost. That was using a more expensive chemistry than LFP. When Tesla had their battery day they talked about a 50+% drop in cell cost, some due to manufacturing process and some, I assume, from moving to a LFP chemistry. Turning cells into packs adds something to the cost but if the cost in the graph you used was around $135/kWh pack cost and Tesla can take that down to about $10/kWh pack cost for non-performance EVs then it seems like legacy car manufacturers are in very deep trouble. Both from Tesla taking a lot of their $25k and up market and China taking the

[@KeithBab]

Despite people complaining that new cars are "too expensive", the US new car market doesn't seem to be driven primarily by price. Cheap cars have been available in the US for a long time, but people gravitate to the expensive SUVs and pickup trucks. So, while I think something like the EX3 EV would sell in the US, it probably wouldn't sell in big numbers. I can already hear people saying "I'd love to buy one, if the range was greater, and it had more carrying capacity, and a better infotainment system, and why doesn't it have heated seats...etc".

[@bobwallace9753]

@@KeithBab Most cars last fewer than 16 years. Only 1% of all cars in the US make it to 200,000 miles. 200,000 miles /13,000 annual miles = 15.4 years. What replaces that 1/16th of the fleet that goes to the crusher every year are new cars. Those who can't afford new cars buy their cars as used cars. Let's say they buy a $30k ICEV after it's depreciated 50%, down to $15k. And then they have the higher operating expense of an ICEV (fuel, oil changes, engine and transmission repairs). Give them the option of a new EV for about what they would pay for a lightly used ICEV and enjoy lower operating costs and think about what might happen to the new ICEV market. People who like to buy a new car every three years and getting half the value back when they trade in are going to find that they can no longer get as much in for the trade in. The market is going to pay a lot less for their used ICEV. Many new car buyers are likely to hold on to their ICEV a few more years and avoid spending more money. As/if new ICEV sales drop due to people moving to EVs or just holding on to their ICEV longer the legacy companies are put at significant peril. It's going to be a few years before they can scale up EV production to get their costs down. And they cannot, as far as I can imagine, compete in the

[@artsnow8872]

@@bobwallace9753 IHI reports that the average age of cars is 12.1 years old. CNBC reports that 25% of cars in the USA are at least 16 years old. From 15 million to 17 million cars are sold in the USA annually. About the same number are scrapped. There are about 90 million cars in USA; so, the scrap / replacement rate is about 17%. To replace that 90 million ICE cars will take a few years --- say, 20 years if ICE car sales stopped today.

[@mvot966]

When it comes to nuanced analysis of complex material science and manufacturing cost systems Jordan is a super ninja 🥷 You just destroyed an MIT cost study with a few well reasoned analogs. Well done, grasshopper.

[@thelimitingfactor]

🤜🤛 😁

[@vdtogt]

I am looking forward to your next videos! Did I miss something about the difference in tooling-cost between Gigacasting and HSS? I also missed the difference in the materials in corrosion-prevention. HSS will also have to be treated against corrosion right? Keep up the good work! Future patreon out!

[@thelimitingfactor]

Cheers man. Corrosion will be covered when we cover the alloy. The tooling cost, energy, labour, treatment etc were all covered in the DOE and MIT estimates.

[@vdtogt]

@@thelimitingfactor Thanks, just rewatched those parts. Another thing I didnt see: waste material in stamping seems nill, just reprocess, but for HSS - waste?

[@AndrewSheldon]

This video is so great. But it remains in my mind why your analysis doesn't include corrosion resistance as a consideration. The simplicity of EVs strike me as a reason to go for long life durable vehicles which retain value. I'm thinking aluminium is more corrosion resistant, but nice if you addressed it.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Thanks man! Corrosion resistance is a property of the alloy. It's a series and will be covered in the appropriate video (the next video of the series)

[@mikehartman6961]

The giga-cast is cool. But I can't even afford to look at a Tesla. I think Ford solves the problem pretty well with the F 150. They use the same full frame design as always, and put the battery in the middle same as a Tesla. $32,000 after tax credit. Seats 5. 200 miles range. It looks like a truck. If $28,000 is the cost to make a model 3. Maybe they should go to the cheap steel. And give the people a car they can afford.

[@karlmckinnell8652]

Jordon, thanks for the great content. It would be interesting to see a comparison of repair costs after a collision. I imagine repairing a one piece cast aluminum frame assembly would be extremely difficult.

[@petehall1900]

Yes and more deep dive on battery manufacturers please

[@danialmoser2573]

3 hour construction time vs 10 hours for legacy auto manufacturing. Labor saved is calculable and massive.

[@ericadar]

The entire calculation is based on vehicle cost at time of sale which the primary motivator for most care shoppers. However, Tesla also appears to care about overall effect on greenhouse gases. For that, it may be better to look at 10-year total cost of ownership. Minimal vehicle body weight savings would have a dramatic effect on overall energy consumption for 10-yr 150K miles driven, further tipping the scale in favor of more expensive gigacast alloys with lower weight-to-strength ratios.

[@djnavari]

Fantastic hard-core technical video!

[@clarklittle2098]

Great job, thank you!!

[@corpierro]

One important fact has been completely kept out of the theoretical weight, strength and stiffness equation. Casting/moulding technology limits the minimum wall thickness. Theoretical mass and stiffness calculations become different when you can't make castings not thinner then 4-8mm although that would be enough for strength. Steel sheet products have almost no thickness limitations, can be as low as 0.2 mm So castings are always much havier because of wall thickness limitations. Why is Tesla using Al castings? They're a newbie in automotive/mechanical engineering and production technology. They try many things new and different, supported by companies always willing to expand their customer base. Some of these ideas are good and some of them are bad

[@tango9944]

Video is very informative, thank you !

[@eugeniustheodidactus8890]

You did an amazing amount of work to produce this content, Jordan! Absolutely wonderful.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Thanks man! Yeah, this one was a grind. But, totally worth it. Really happy with the response.

[@eugeniustheodidactus8890]

@@thelimitingfactor I am still trying to understand how the 4680 is not considered to be "solid state" especially with the dry anode.

[@josephvanorden3782]

Jordan, your videos just keep getting better and more professional. As always, I am impressed with the quality of your content. You wanted a way to express the savings. According to a podcast, I heard last week. VW had an emergency meeting because they were running behind Tesla. They claimed that Tesla could produce a car in ten hours and it took VW 30 hours. The Model Y line in China is supposedly producing 1,600 cars per day. That is a tact time of about 50 seconds, which is world-class. Other carmakers can also put out one car every 50 seconds, but they take much longer to put the car together. Toyota takes between 21 to 18 hours per car. If the giga casts are behind much of this shorter production line, (I also assume it includes not having to put in engines and transmissions) than the inventory and labor cost saving must be gigantic. Every hour of production equals 60 to 72 cars worth of extra inventory. Giga casts are making Tesla leaner than Toyota, which is something I thought I would never say.

[@thelimitingfactor]

Great information, thanks Joseph!

[@dr-k1667]

So excited for this newest video... plus I have apple pie. Thanks for your continued hard work!