2023 Oscar Predictions - Best Actor & Actress | December

[@filmnoirpic]

Be very, very careful of floating "career narratives". That did not work out for Glenn Close, Chadwick Boseman, Michael Keaton, Mickey Rourke, Sylvester Stallone.

[@lilchaos4792]

Yup. The Academy doesn't care. Best comment on this thread.

[@wes8738]

But it’s certainly worked out for plenty of others and is always worth mentioning - it’ll be a factor even if it doesn’t always win the day

[@jolus8975]

@@wes8738 last year it worked out for Jessica

[@BROJANGSTER]

@@jolus8975 wha? jessica chastain was nominated once, only 10 years ago at the time, was snubbed for another movie a couple years later, and won on her 2nd nomination. that’s hardly a career narrative compared to the people listed above

[@slickwill9000]

The fact that Michelle Yeoh was able to pull off a comedic, action packed, and dramatic performance all in one movie has me thinking she can take Best Actress

[@fong03]

I think Cate gives the best performance of the year and she would be my pick. I agree with the argument that Yeoh has the career narrative going for her and that will be tough to beat. (And she also gives a great performance!) The one thing that keeps me leaning towards Blanchett is that there is a (sad) possibility that Tar could be shut out of wins in the other categories. Actress could be its only win and if you are going to reward the film for something, this seems the likely category. (It would get my vote for screenplay.)

[@cllareou]

this! I also think the same way.. Blanchett or Yeoh are my favorites.

[@RobertBurns71405]

Still think Fraser has a shot, He has started to really pick up some critic awards and he just has such a good narrative (bigger than Rourke and Keaton even) that I can see the academy get behind despite it not being a picture thing

[@seankoontz4235]

We’re also due to have someone break the Best Picture rule- it’s been 13 years since Jeff Bridges

[@encheknizam]

I would love to see Fraser going home with the Oscar trophy. The crying scene in The Whale is impeccable.

[@filmsareprettydope]

I NEED TO KNOW I HAVE DONE ONE THING RIGHT WITH MY LIFE

[@mspou9070]

A template for Colin Farrell's performance: Gregory Peck as Atticus Finch in "To Kill a Mockingbird". Pure subtlety. That scene where "his back" gives us the "news". Pure gold. Fingers crossed for Farrell.

[@michaelangelo2192]

I'm hoping it's like the Hopkins Boseman race in that the voters simply ignore narratives and vote for their favourite (best) performance. For me, depsite liking Banshees the most as a film, I think Brendan Fraser gave simply a much better performance than Farrell and Buttler (who are both also great). Performance for performance, I think people on the whole think Fraser is the best of the three, so I hope voters ignore narratives/what film they're a part of, and do the right thing.

[@fromomelastocarcosa3575]

Just don't see what you're seeing there, going on merit Farrell is significantly the better performance - not least because the material allows him to do so as he is working with a script that is iterations better than the Whale.

[@michaelangelo2192]

@@fromomelastocarcosa3575 Well my issue is what you're saying in the second half of your comment. The material shouldn't be taken into account when judging what's the best *performance*. Obviously it's hard to separate a performance from its script/direction, but they already have oscar categories for both of those - so if you think the film is better in those departments, vote for it there. Of course, if you take away those factors and still think Farrell gives a better performance than Fraser, then please vote for that - but do it because you think the performance is actually better standing on its own and not because it is a part of a move you like more.

[@fromomelastocarcosa3575]

@@michaelangelo2192 Actors doing Shakespeare have a better chance of winning an Olivier than actors doing Ben Elton. Actors in The Wire are going to win over actors in Beverly Hills 90210. Its that the better writing gives better scope for aiming at excellence. A bad actor in Farrells role would have been a disaster. Frasers is a nice down the fairway drive. Gift of a role nice performance, nothing too challenging for the audicne, gets moments to play to the house, some good crying bits. The Whale perforkance is not lifting terrible writing, its doing The Job with sound to good writing. McDonagh laid down a challenge with a masterpiece of a script and all 4 main actors hit it out the park.

[@michaelangelo2192]

@@fromomelastocarcosa3575 Well if there was as good a performance as Fraser gives in The Whale in Beverly Hills 90210, then they should absolutely be recognised for it. The critics gave Bohemian Rhapsody a 49 (metacritic), but people thought Rami Malek was great in the film, voted for him and he won it (I don't agree with that decision btw, but that script was hardly Shakespeare...) I think Farrell was awesome. I think all 4 Banshees key actors were played to perfection. I just think Fraser's performance was more powerfully performed, more profound in its execution and delivered in a way that is permanently etched into my mind, being able to recall his exact delivery of certain lines. Fraser's eyes really told the story. Again, you obviously think Farrell was better and that's fine and valid.

[@fromomelastocarcosa3575]

@@michaelangelo2192 And Bho Rap is a pretty good epitome of why bad scripts shouldn't win awards (well, it's an all round argument for why popular sentiment shouldn't determine awards and biopics have no place anywhere near consideration for performances of the year but I digress). BohoRap is not really an example of a 'bad script' being given an award for performance. It's an example of critics and awards bodies feeling railroaded into giving out awards to a mediocre movie and mediocre performance on the basis of popular sentiment and ill-informed audiences rather than their own beliefs. Which is exactly why so many goddam biopic nothing performances win awards - they are so non-contentious in popular sentiment even when in films nobody even cares about (Chastain/Smith/Zellweger) because 80% of what the average cinemagoer thinks is good acting is good costume/makeup. Anyway, sorry I'm digressing into a biopics rant. I accept Fraser was strong. I don't understand where you are pulling those comparative claims from though. I not only think Farrell was better, but in terms of things that can be more easily directly compared: Paul Mescal in Aftersun is as well. In terms of lead male performances this year right now I'd go 1. Farrell 2. Mescal 3. Hae Il Park 4. Fraser

[@thenerdsarecoming]

Really pulling for Fraser to win the Oscar- I know it'll end up going to Butler (which I'm okay with, he was easily the best part of that movie), but I really want to see Brendan get up on that stage and accept the award.

[@kaidwyer6891]

Dude butler is not the worry Colin Farrell has won almost every award

[@Burke1O1]

It's going to farrell

[@farithfalcon4538]

Farrell= cumberbatch power of the dog

[@Heroliesinyou]

Brendan Fraser deserves more.

[@davidmckesey7119]

Butler prepared for 2 years and never sang before so took like 6 different vocal coaches

[@davidphilpott2724]

God, I'm hoping it goes to Yeoh! It was such a unique performance and very rarely do we see performances with a comedic spin take the win. It was dramatic, comedic, action based - a truly all-rounded performance. Plus, I feel that it's time we give her this award after the career she has had. This was just the cherry on top of it

[@mati.p172]

My predictions: 1. Austin Butler 2. Colin Farrell 3. Brendan Fraser 4. Bill Nighy 5. Tom Cruise 1. Cate Blanchett 2. Michelle Williams 3. Michelle Yeoh 4. Margot Robbie 5. Danielle Deadwyler

[@GareBare90]

I'm still giving the Brenaissance a chance at no. 1.

[@Heroliesinyou]

He deserves it.

[@encheknizam]

Yes, please !!!

[@christianknight727]

Best Actor: 1. Austin Butler (Elvis) 2. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 3. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) 4. Bill Nighy (Living) 5. Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) 6. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) 7. Diego Calva (Babylon) 8. Hugh Jackman (The Son) 9. Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) 10. Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans) Best Actress: 1. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 2. Cate Blanchett (TAR) 3. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) 4. Margot Robbie (Babylon) 5. Danielle Deadwyler (Till) 6. Viola Davis (The Woman King) 7. Ana De Armas (Blonde) 8. Naomi Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody) 9. Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) 10. Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway)

[@davidmckesey7119]

I agree but Farrell isn't winning

[@christianknight727]

I have Austin Butler and Michelle Yeoh at number 1 now.

[@kalinaevreva7424]

I'm okay with Austin Butler winking, but not okay with nominating Elvis for Best Picture. The movie just didn't have a focus. At the end I got confused who was the movie about - Elvis or Parker.

[@Jamal3.87]

I think you guys are shortchanging Brendan Fraser here. I don’t think The Whale has to get nominated in any other category for him to win except Best Makeup. Keep in mind that that is exactly what happened for Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Gary Oldman (The Darkest Hour), and Jessica Chastain (Tammy Faye). In all instances, the makeup won the Oscar. If The Whale wins Best Makeup, that Oscar belongs to Fraser. Elvis may get in for Best Picture and some tech categories like Sound, and that can only help Austin Butler’s case but I don’t know. The only thing holding Fraser back is the fact that he’s playing a fictional character as opposed to Streep, Oldman, and Chastain. I actually think Colin Farrell is In second place as of now but Butler is gaining momentum.

[@jongon0848]

I could see Fraser winning, his performance feels similar to Gary Oldman's win in Darkest Hour but I could also see Butler coming in and pulling a Rami Malek. Colin Farrell looks strong but I still see him in the 2nd or 3rd slot at the moment.

[@jorssu13]

If Butler wins, I'll resign from life. I'm so sick of the Academy handing out awards for these kind of performances. Butler's performance was good, but in my opinion not good enough to even be in the conversation. Same goes for Rami who I think shouldn't have won as Butler shouldn't either.

[@fromomelastocarcosa3575]

@@jorssu13 Absolutely. 10 year moratorium on biopic performances is needed. The 2 last year were abominations, and the tip of a now 20 year long iceberg of every second award going to a damn impression.

[@luis6633]

@@jorssu13he’s definitely enough to be in this conversation. Why is time cruise a contender? Top gun was awesome but ain’t nothing out of the ordinary. He’s the one you should be saying he doesn’t belong in the conversation

[@jorssu13]

@@luis6633 This is a weak year for best actor outside Fraser and Farrel. I don't think Cruise should be in the conversation either. My top 5 is Fraser, Farrel, Nighy, Mescal and Calvo, but out of those only Fraser and Farrel and maybe Nighy are realistic candidates for nomination. I realize that Butler will get nominated although I didn't think his performance was anything special. Same with Cruise probably.

[@jaotick]

@@jorssu13 exactly

[@ValentinaTheCreator]

It's Brendan Fraser. This is going to mirror Renee Zellweger for Judy. Called it here first! Complete faith here!

[@fromomelastocarcosa3575]

How does it mirror Zellweger just out of interest? A completely different stage in career and completely different type of film.

[@ValentinaTheCreator]

@@fromomelastocarcosa3575 just the important awards reflection I'm assuming will happen, SAG, BAFTA, Globes, and then Oscars

[@106andie]

I wouldn’t be so sure, The Whale Will most likely not be nominated for Best Picture along with other major awards. When it comes to Best Actress, this isn’t an issue but Best Actor is a different story.

[@nicoleann0703]

As a personal choice for me I thought that Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, and Olivia Colman were absolutely amazing. I related to Colman's character on a personal level but I think that I love Cate's performance the best even though I wasn't a fan of TAR. It would be awesome for Michelle Yeoh to win too, though.

[@blackguyofthesouth2161]

Colin Farrell has that drunk scene and yes the part where he cries, but I really liked performance and him as an actor and would put him about Butler who is good as Elvis. I haven't seen The Whale yet, but since it's not a BP contender, theres no way I see him winning.

[@lobiseja3517]

Austin would have an astounding boost! 💪💪💪

[@monkeyangelo717]

Colin can take Best Actor. I think Blanchett has Best Actress wrapped up as long as TÁR makes picture (it will).

[@nate-it9xq]

I don’t really see why Deadwyler should be above Robbie. Given she missed Globes, Till seems to be having trouble campaigning. Robbie’s in a movie that’s likely for Picture and is a bigger name. They could definitely save Danielle if she's in trouble, but I do think it's her who is exchangeable.

[@poett8875]

Exactly. Her film pretty much came and went, and she didn’t get nominated for the golden globe whereas Robbie did. On top of the fact that Robbie is an academy darling. Deadwyler I believe is highly snubbable unfortunately.

[@davidmckesey7119]

It's dead on campaign.

[@RS-qc4tg]

Yep. I’m scared that Deadwyler gets Delroy Lindo’d

[@pb.j.1753]

You don’t need a Globes nomination to get a Oscar Best Actress nomination. I am not talking about Deadwyler as I haven’t seen the film but it’s just a fact.

[@nate-it9xq]

@@pb.j.1753 I… didn’t say that lol. Of course you don’t. But not getting one isn’t great, especially when there are other contenders more known than you in bigger movies. She can get in but there’s no reason she shouldn’t have at Globes, and it’s cause for concern.

[@TheTomale]

Its so funny how they always down play Viola Davis performance. They did it when she was nominated for Ma Rainey Black Bottom and won the SAG… yall really have to stop doubting the power of Viola. She the industry weapon. Make it or Break it.. she’s definitely in my top 5 along with Williams, Yeoh , Blanchett and Deadwyler.

[@SoulKnightKing]

She got Critics choice and Golden Globe. She's almost unstoppable at SAG. This is how you know critics are so far removed and always blinded by their favorites. Plus SAG being right before the Oscars. Davis is getting in she's #4. Robbie and Deadwyler are fighting for #5 but I feel like Robbie will take it. It's hard for Deadwyler because she's competing as the sole nominee for her film, and that never goes well

[@poett8875]

@@SoulKnightKing I confident that Robbie is safe. Deadwyler is the one who might be in trouble.

[@lilchaos4792]

@@SoulKnightKing I think Ana gets in over Robbie and Danielle.

[@SoulKnightKing]

@@lilchaos4792 I literally just finished Blonde. Wow she was better than Deadwyler

[@cashin8040]

I really hope that Colin Farrell wins, he displayed the type of performance, where he didn’t need makeup to be in character. He used his skills and his emotions to bring the character to life, I also noticed more subtle things in his acting, when I rewatched it this week. With actress, I was thinking blanchett, but she already has one, absolutely deserves the nomination but michelle yeoh needs one on her mantle. Little side note, I also would like to see Paul Mescal get a nom, it was the same as with colin, it wasn’t a showy roll but goddamn it was a powerful one that I related too on a level.

[@vedanthmisri9956]

Yeoh has the narrative but she also has THE performance!

[@RobertoHernandez-to4nc]

thank you is both things, did the watch he same movie as me ?

[@nickhicks6524]

Cole’s impersonation of Austin Butler playing piano at the end of Elvia has me dead😂

[@kassiogomes8498]

Hilarious

[@TheClubOrtiz]

Here are my predictions (alphabetical order) Best Actor 1.Austin Butler-Elvis 2.Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin 3.Brendan Fraser-The Whale 4.Hugh Jackman-The Son 5.Bill Nighy-Living Best Actress 1.Cate Blanchett-TÁR 2.Viola Davis-The Woman King 3.Margot Robbie-Babylon 4.Michelle Williams-The Fabelmans 5.Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All At Once

[@MR-cb7pe]

Austin Butler all the way!

[@ethanhughes7462]

Merry christmas you guys, hope you have a great day. And I must say my gift from you guys was that Elvis impression and this video ofcourse :)

[@gailcirillo8311]

Austin Butler Best Actor all the way.

[@rodolfoleyva6299]

Austin 🌟💯👍

[@MovieFanZ89]

-The Northman (Alexander Skarsgard) (The Northman) -Tom Cruise (Top Gun Maverick) -Jonathan Majors (Devotion) -Austin Butler (Elvis)

[@sphmoran28]

As for me, Austin Butler will win Oscar's Best Actor and Cate Blanchett as Best Actress! I saw both films.

[@culturemadness]

Team Colin Farrel and Cate Blanchett. My hopefulls would be Viola, Tom Cruise, Armas and.... Mia Goth!

[@birdies8397]

Mia Goth is unfortunately unlikely to be nominated. The Academy has a huge bias against horror, as well as performances by women in horror movies.

[@ad-sd-vids5332]

So Fraser is like Anthony Hopkins in the father, butler is like rami malek in bohemian rhapsody, and Colin Farrell is like Casey affleck In Manchester by the sea

[@seankoontz4235]

The way that all of these are similar to other winning performances has me tearing my hair out 😄 I don’t know who to predict- I think I’ll cave and still predict Fraser

[@lilchaos4792]

Good comparisons

[@claudettewright365]

I’d say Butler is more like a mix of Adrien Brody for The Pianist and Malek for BhoRhap (the difference being that Malek had an Emmy), but otherwise, perfect comparisons!

[@claudettewright365]

@@seankoontz4235And that’s exactly why this is basically a three-way horse race.

[@dc_al_coda]

Statistically, one of the biggest hurdles Brendan would have is The Whale not being nominated for Best Picture. The chances of winning Best Actor for a film not nominated for Best Picture are not good. Since 1990, only six have ever done so, and only one (Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart) has done after the BP expansion - and it was the first year they expanded the line-up. It's not required, but it is a noticeable blow if The Whale doesn't get nominated for BP (as is expected at the moment).

[@MovieFanZ89]

Lead Actor -Adam Sandler (Hustle) -Alexander Skarsgard (The Northman) -Jonathan Majors (Devotion) -Mason Thames (The Black Phone) -Tom Cruise (Top Gun Maverick) Lead Actress -Amber Midthunder (Prey) -Anya Taylor Joy (The Menu) -Olivia DeJonge (Elvis)

[@pdgf]

For Best Actor it often goes with the one in a Best Pic nominee too, unlike in Best Actress where they can win without a corresponding Best Pic for the film. So it could be between Austin and Colin.

[@gavinoconnorclarke5270]

Forrest Whittaker and Jeff Bridges have been exemplified exceptions.

[@pdgf]

@@gavinoconnorclarke5270 tru dat. So good luck to brendan. Maybe the nomination is already the win for a comebacking actor, like Mickey Rourke 😉

[@MusicOrLoseItTV]

Good these guys include images in their discussion to follow along.

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

What a nail biter Best Actress is this year!! I'm hoping the Academy will pull off a Lakeith Stanfield on Michelle Williams and put her in Best Supporting Actress just to make room for Viola or Naomi. 🤭 Also, I used to say Elvis was this year's Bohemian Rhapsody but the truth is that Austin Butler gave a much better performance than Rami Malek. Butler would be a very deserving win in the Best Actor category although you really can't be mad with any of the top three.

[@kyle7768]

the camera glance at 3:55 when you got interrupted AGAIN lmao

[@liquidjake7672]

Really need Fraser to get the win

[@RareCinephile]

Last year, all of the best actor nominees were previous nominees, this year, it looks like it’s going to be the opposite, which is why, instead of Tom Cruise, I’m going to predict either Jeremy Pope or Diego Calva.

[@havocacy]

Loved that observation! Even Paul Mescal has a shot.

[@lilchaos4792]

I love how you guys finally woke up from the Cope and are rightfully predicting Austin Butler to win the Oscar. It's ELVIS. Eddie won, Rami won, and DDL won for Lincoln, Gary Oldman as Churchill. The whale is problematic due to Fat-shaming. And Elvis is the SAFE choice. Austin easily wins GG and SAG. Austin had soooo many Oscar moments in that damn movie. A lot of big, flashy, stadium scenes and the 68 special comeback recreation were phenomenal. Also, Ana gets in as the Latina representation. And it's another biopic. She also scored GG nom. Margot Robbie is not getting in lol. Also, Viola gets in, too. Your predictions are way too white lmfao. The Golden Globes went 4/5 in drama for actress. The one they'll replace is Olivia for Michelle. It's right in front you guys lol study up boys.

[@brendanbrown8704]

Even Cate Blanchett will vote for Michelle Yeoh!!! She deserves it!!

[@kev_yu]

They love you until you get snubbed for Arrival… Heartbreak never comes so sudden like this. 😢😢😢

[@abbybuttonn]

I think the three front runners for actor is a hard order to put it in. I think it’s MAINLY between Fraser and Butler with Farrell extremely close behind them. It’s so hard to put rankings on their names.

[@TravisFirestine]

Hope you guys have a blessed Holidays! I might be crazy but I still expect Olivia Colman to sneak in at the Oscars. I agree Margot Robbie could be slipping out

[@isaacrichter3269]

A good comparison to Colin Farrell: Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (that's probably the most recent one)... not playing a real person, nor someone with a disability, and it is a very subtle performance (with some more explosive moments, but part of the point of the character is that he wouldn't allow himself to explode)...

[@nic..1]

I haven’t seen TÁR yet but if Blanchett gave THE performance of the year ABOVE Yeoh… I really need to see that performance lol

[@notchuckproductions5029]

I don't know I'm just tried of these Baity bio pic performances winning, it's losing it's charm too me personally, and with music biopics especially feel kind of like impersonations rather serious acting for me. And With a finger like Elvis, who is one the most impersonated pepole in pop culture, Austin Buttler's performance just feels like a real good Elvis impersonation rather then the man to me personally, My favorite of the bunch is Colin personally and I feel we underapparacite how hard comedic acting is, and he pulled it off amazingly.

[@rogercalvomedina674]

Colin Farrell is winning best actor. Cate Blanchett is winning best actress.

[@beabravo6759]

Ha! The little yellow disclaimer make my day. Happy Xmas!

[@Ellie-bl18]

AUSTIN BUTLER TO WIN BEST ACTOR!!!!

[@kieranczyzniejewski2178]

Even though Michelle Yeoh is my favorite performance by any actor this year, Cate Blanchett is definitely the safer pick for the Oscar win for many reasons: First, her performance has that art house feel that the academy traditionally loves and rewards. Yeoh's performance is much more unusual; it doesn't follow the Hollywood norms. Second, Best Actress is seemingly the least diverse of all the major categories. As far as I'm aware, the only POC to win the award is Halle Berry. This trend just makes it all the more likely Blanchett will be the choice. Finally, though Hollywood does like to give the "career" Oscar, this almost always happens with Men. Women who get their first win tend to be younger; when older women win they tend to have had some showing at the Academy in the past

[@Sharpe1502]

Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand both won Oscars for Three Billboards and neither had a huge crying scene either. I wouldn’t count Colin Farrell out.

[@paulvoorhies8821]

I think Colin wins.

[@shihtzucorgi1368]

@03:05 The only person I could think of was is 1999 when Kevin Spacey won for American Beauty.. Its not that flashy, and he had beaten Denzel Washington, Russel Crowe, RichardFarnsworth and Sean Penn. Maybe because its a best picture contender..

[@pdgf]

There is such a thing as "the nomination is already the win itself" - like you said for keaton, rourke, etc. So maybe this will apply for fraser and yeoh, sadly. But u cant go wrong with Cate 😉

[@galfor54]

Cate Blanchett all the way. She’s just mesmerizing in Tar.

[@Ryan-gt4vv]

Fuck cate Blanchett watch to Leslie and come back Andrea Riseborough all the way

[@galfor54]

@@Ryan-gt4vv Cate does not appreciate such vileness 😂

[@MrStGeorgeIllawarra]

I sadly can't see Michelle winning. EEAAO is way too out there for the Oscar dinosaurs voters and there are still a lot of them voting.

[@janechoy2073]

I think Michelle Yeoh has the best performance and career wise she deserves the award the most out of your top 5 (I didn't watch Babylon). Everyone *knows* CB will win more Oscars in her career so there's little gain to give her yet another this year when Michelle Yeoh has a much much better narrative and imo - put up the best work for it.

[@anyemkkkk]

i was hoping for paul mescal and olivia colman for the fifth vacancy

[@theboxingchannel1586]

Guys personally I watched Till and I wouldn’t put her in my top 5 Danielle Deadwyler. I really want Ana De Armas. Not many actresses can play that role and she does it amazingly. Deadwyler in Till can be perform by many actresses.

[@snowballthepro2926]

I think the awards bracket for best actor will be as follows Gg drama Butler Gg comedy Farrell Cc butler Sag Fraser Bafta Farrell It's all a coin toss for me

[@birdies8397]

I could see this happening!

[@flrnce]

I understand it’s important to consider stats, but I highly doubt academy voters are thinking, “Can’t vote for Brendan Fraser because his movie isn’t nominated for Best Picture.”

[@onoud9417]

it's more that they'd rather vote for performances from a film they loved unfortunately

[@pb.j.1753]

@@onoud9417 Academy loved Licorice Pizza and Worst Person in the World yet they they only voted for 5 Best Actress performances that came along without Best Picture/International Feature noms.

[@onoud9417]

@@pb.j.1753 best actress usually doesn't correlate much with best picture in the first place that's why. There's a very long misogynistic history of the academy not recognizing female driven stories.

[@gavinoconnorclarke5270]

@@onoud9417 Forrest Whittaker and Jeff Bridges won without best picture nominations. So, I strongly disagree with you there.

[@onoud9417]

@Gavin O'Connor Clarke of course, it's possible. Rather than "I hate the whale so I won't vote for Fraiser," it's "I love this movie, Butler is a star and was the soul if it" I was just saying they probably won't downvote actors like the og comment said, but rather upvote someone else.

[@PolarianSymphony]

i dont think its fair to compare yeoh to boseman. the awards for boseman all depended on narrative but the movie was weak, (possibly) unlike eeaao. but most importantly, was there really a CAREER to reward boseman on? most people knew him with black panther, so ma rainey's was pretty much his second significant role. now with yeoh, not only is she a veteran actress, but she's been in a myriad of both blockbusters and acclaimed roles.

[@macwinwinnyday9374]

Colin and Cate! Without any doubtu!!!✨

[@gabrielcastaneda9700]

I could see labelle being the surprise 5 slot

[@dnduaii]

i could see that possibly happening, especially with past nominations of strong young lead performers (ie keisha castle-hughes in whale rider, quvenzhané wallis in beasts of the southern wild, timothee chalamet in call me by your name)

[@gabrielcastaneda9700]

@@dnduaii especially if fabelmans is over nominated

[@seankoontz4235]

He might get a BAFTA nomination, which could be enough

[@gabrielcastaneda9700]

@@seankoontz4235 I think he is second for the cc young performer award I feel like they will go corrio

[@thefilmseeker]

I'm sorry, but Tom Cruise being legitimately in the Best Actor conversation where he just does Tom Cruise things but in a more widely enjoyed film than usual is a joke.

[@davidmckesey7119]

Blanchett vs Yeoh. Butler vs Fraser

[@rahulvinalnarayan9743]

I think the nominations will be: Best Actor 1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin 2. Austin Buttler - Elvis 3. Brandon Fraser - The Whale 4. Paul Mescal - Aftersun 5. Bill Nighy - Living Best Actress: 1. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once 2. Danielle Deadwyler - Till 3. Cate Blanchett - Tar 3. Viola Davis - The Woman King 5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

[@ovandothack]

i don’t know if i care that the whale isn’t going to be in picture? i know it hasn’t happened in 13yrs or whatever but i get the feeling it might not matter. farrell could be strong too kinda a c*sey affleck type performance very subtle. i just don’t see butler he isn’t really redmayne or malek to me because they were known before that like who is butler to voters? also you kinda don’t need to watch the whale to know about his performance same for farrell even word of mouth is enough but with butler you need to see it to be convinced that he’s doing a great job which i guess could benefit him with it probably being in picture more voters are likely to watch

[@auntvesuvi3872]

Thanks, OE! Thanks, BB! 🌟 #TheOscarExpert #2023OscarPredictions #BestActor #BestActress

[@sour3889]

I really really hope Diego Calva gets in. He probably won’t but he was so good.

[@ethandlima1604]

My personal picks for Best Actor: 1. Mescal 2. Butler 3. Farrell 4. Hae-il 5. Fraser Honourable Mention: Fiennes. I still have to see Living My personal picks for Best Actress: 1. Yeoh 2. Blanchett 3. Deadwyler 4. Wei 5. Davis Honourable Mention: Goth. I still have to see Babylon

[@ozoz3444]

Sorry but to you all saying the nomination is the win for Yeoh is ridiculous. Yeoh and Blanchett gave the best performances of the year. Reducing a WOC actress' work to a "nomination is the win" category is offensive. I have never seen an actress do what Yeoh did in EEAAO.

[@brendanbrown8704]

I agree. It’s a total original. Nothing has ever been seen on screen like this and that is because of Yeoh’s immense talent & commitment to this character. Cate is still obviously acting, Yeoh’s is a life force.

[@slickwill9000]

This. All of this.

[@alliona502]

I cannot see Austin Butler winning, he’s not that likeable and kinda comes of as girl teen crush rather than oscar winner. Plus I think people are tired of music biopics, Rami Malek won too recently for the same sort of role. I think it’s between Fraser and Farrell.

[@claudettewright365]

Plus, the Academy has a huge bias against young male actors. The last time a young actor won Best Actor for a breakout performance while also being a newcomer without any major awards was Adrien Brody in The Pianist 20 years ago. Even then, he had certain circumstances going to his advantage that likely made the difference: 1. Nicholson and DDL splitting the difference 2. Brody being the only Best Actor nominee who opposed participating in a proposed boycott by Nicholson, which was pretty widely publicized.

[@SnowyTaco]

I’d put Paul Mescal in 6th and that’s your race. Aftersun is pushing in screenplay category. Maybe picture and editing? Fun fact, if those two + Jeremy Pope got in then we’d have three A24 actors

[@robertok4658]

The Cate Blanchett/ Atnhony Hopkins comparison feels right here. Watching Tar felt similar to the Father in that sublime sense

[@samisfun868]

only thing is with Hopkins you emphasize but with Tar she just mean as hell lol

[@robertok4658]

@@samisfun868 Very true, though the Juilliard sequence alone but end up Clinching blanchetts number 3

[@vintagecaban7967]

1. Brendan Fraser - The Whale 2. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin 3. Bill Nighy - Living 4. Austin Butler - Elvis 5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

[@HeyThereNat]

With any other actress I’d say anyone else, but it’s Cate Blanchett. I just can’t vote against her and her acting. She NAILED TÁR, Any other year I’d want this for Yeoh, but I’d love to see it go to Cate.

[@kiarakrejass722]

austin,brenda,bill,ralfh y hufth too cate,michelle,michelle ,danielle and anya

[@lizzzies]

I want Austin Butler to win so bad

[@August-z5r]

I feel like that would cheapen the academy awards

[@dariosanchez2557]

Was Crazy Heart nominated for Best Picture?

[@twerps1]

Elvis winning any of the major awards would be another shovel of dirt on the Oscarcasket... Austin Butler makes it slightly watchable but on all other accounts I found it a very difficult sit.

[@newyyykkll]

Mia Goth should have been nominated for Pearl

[@user-xq2lk6on9y]

I still don’t get what is so special about Butler performance. My main problem that the movie felt like a long 2 hours trailer.

[@osofilms1319]

Margot Robbie for Babylon? I feel like that film is getting less love each day. So I wouldn’t hold my breath.

[@seankoontz4235]

Robbie will probably make it- as polarizing as the movie is, everyone seems to agree that she really stands out

[@oskari7121]

Academy loves biopic performance but they also have a huge bias against young men. Yes Malek and Redmayne won, but both of them were already Emmy and Tony winners. Butler is both young and so new to the scene.

[@rozennpoulet6789]

Adrian Brody win at 29 years old so…

[@oskari7121]

@@rozennpoulet6789 Only comparison I can think of. But Pianist almost won Best Picture. And I feel Brody came up from behind because Day-Lewis and Nicholson split the opposition.

[@claudettewright365]

@@rozennpoulet6789 That was also 20 years ago, which also proves the point that the Academy has a huge bias against youth: they haven’t rewarded Best Actor to a big breakout performance by a newcomer actor in 20 years. 😬

[@claudettewright365]

@@oskari7121 There was also a protest planned by Nicholson where he wanted to get the Best Actor nominees to not show up to the awards, and Brody was the only one who said it wasn’t a good idea, so they all went. That was pretty widely publicized at the time, so that might’ve helped him as well.

[@rozennpoulet6789]

austin has already starred in once upon a time in hollywood by tarentino many stars like spilbergs have already recognized butler's performance as incredible.

[@ArmandoGarcia-ci7el]

I think Margot is off because Babylon flops at the box office

[@mindtheprivacy]

Tom cruise deserves an Oscar too whatever the category!

[@ΜαριαΑν-δ9ν]

Paul Mescal belongs in the Top 5

[@ellaocean]

No coz when I CATCH HIM??? I WILL MAKE HIM PAY FOR HIA CRIME AND MY THERAPY

[@SamxJxPx1993]

Why do you have so many cuts when talking about films? Do you consistently pause to research facts etc?

[@seankoontz4235]

My predictions •Best Actress: Cate Blanchett •Best Actor: Brendan Fraser •Sup. Actress: Kerry Condon •Sup. Actor: Ke Huy Quan

[@pb.j.1753]

Please review Corsage which will definitely get some BAFTA noms

[@evienicks]

not accidentally coining "Living, Actually"

[@brendanbrown8704]

Margot Robbie is not going to be nominated for Best Actress. Viola D will be for The Woman King-and deservedly so

[@NeverLetMeGo777]

Tom Cruise? Really? You do know the nomination process for the Academy right? Do you really think that many voters from the acting branch would write his name down as #1? I really like Tom Cruise but NO WAY!

[@r.k.m9801]

I don't know academy awards nomination process..... But Yes 💯 Tom cruise is Hollywood last movie star....

[@NeverLetMeGo777]

@@r.k.m9801 The nomination is for Best Performance by an ACTOR in a Leading Role, not best movie star. The Academy Award is not for people like yourself. You should watch something People's Choice or MTV Movie Awards. "I don't know academy awards nomination process....." by R.K.M There you have it.

[@fashion_fckyou]

Maybe you forget about Tom cruise it has 3 nomination in past movies Oscars love Tom cruise it's just him doing more action movies and less art movie so maybe he get nominated for top gun Maverick because the movie has that emotional structure and the action happened at the end of the film at least get nominated and not winning he in my opinion deserves to win.

[@NeverLetMeGo777]

@@fashion_fckyou When was his last nomination? 20+ yeras ago. Did any of his 3 past nominations is for an action movie? How many acting performance in an action movie actually got nominated throughout the entire Oscar history? Charlize Theron in Mad Max? Oh wait... What is repulsive is that all these fanboys know nothing about The Academy yet are "predicting" with their wishful thinking. Please at least study the demographic and taste of The Academy and also their voting process before you make such "insightful" statement. 🙄 PREDICTION HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR PERSONAL LIKING OF THE MOVIE OR PERFORMANCE!

[@birdies8397]

@@NeverLetMeGo777Spot on!

[@TwinStarss]

Give it to Yeoh goddamn it. Blanchett will win again very soon.

[@matilda0410]

I love watching you guys ride the critics wave lol. I adore Fraser and he deserves the nomination if not the win, but I really feel like he's going to be the Kristen Stewart of this season. Farrell and Butler both did fantastic jobs and Banshees is a great film. I wouldn't be surprised by either of them winning. For actress, I wouldn't be surprised if De Armas shows up on Oscar nominations. You guys tried to deny her for the better part of the year, and the film is a mess, but her performance is phenomenal. I completely agree with you on the Blanchett/Yeoh commentary. No ones looking to give Blanchett a third Oscar. Davis/Deadwyler/Robbie are not locks for nominations. Best Actress lineup is going to have a few curveballs.

[@pb.j.1753]

People didn’t think Frances McDormand would get a third Oscar and that her previous win was too recent.

[@matilda0410]

@@pb.j.1753 True, but that awards season was far different than this one, or any other for that matter. Carey was France's only real competition. Vanessa was never winning and Viola (like Michelle Williams this year) should've been in supporting. Nomadland also won best film & director, Tar might not even get nominations in those fields. Anything's possible, but I just don't see it happening.

[@kailengray2822]

I love Cate and Yeoh and I'm 100% sure Cate would want Michelle to win.

[@anyemkkkk]

yess!!!