2024 Q2 Balance Dataslate Predictions for the Astra Militarum

[@redspec01]

Not a real April Fools joke? Sarge, you really do care about us! Been looking all day for good content, and you made it happen!

[@francoisperreaulthistorica3904]

I really hope on my end that guard has an uneventful dataslate, ideally not getting touched at all. Good point on the kasrkin, seems like making them 110 points to line up with scions would do them well. Subjectively though, to me guard is in a unique position where it doesn't feel like it has gotten any stronger for me, more that the big fish (notably aeldar and csm) have gotten weaker, which makes me think that doing anything but the most token buffs/nerfs in the name of doing *something* has the potential to really throw guard out of whack from the nice even place where it's at atm. This feeling of guard staying in the same sort of place while the gap narrows at both ends of the win rate spectrum is definitely one I can't echo with my world eaters though. The once per game change to the favoured of khorne and point nerfs in the faction has definitely left me feeling weaker than before the previous dataslate.

[@tinylittledragon9412]

It'd be nice for various officers to be able to give more orders. Right now it feels like everyone is pushed to take Lord Solar for orders efficiency.

[@badrabbit9703]

Thete was a change frm the last dataslate you nissed: the Manticore. I've been buildibg my army for the oast three months and I really hope they don't mess with the Basilisk. It has been on two GT lists though... I do hope you're wrong about the Kasrkin, but I think you may be right. I hate it because they are all over my lists.

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Yeah, that one wasn't too bad. I've seen a couple of GT winning lists still using the Manticore. Hopefully the Baislisk does get left alone. Poor guard artillery is right on the line of competitive versus not.

[@cavemansam8400]

The commissar is also massively in trouble. An elegent fix would be allowing him to attach to and order Bull/Ogryn

[@ecth97]

I’d like to see the commissar get a special rule that lets their orders stack on top of a unit’s existing order, since it’s just fix bayonets and duty and honour. Gives them more of a use, without breaking the game

[@s.h-d6074]

Agree on most things but instead of Chimera going up I see Catachans increasing in points (like Kasrkin) because they are the reason Chimeras get more efficient

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

I had Catachan going up in my original take and then deleted it out. I did so because I have typically seen just a single unit of Catachan in most top lists (a few exceptions). That to me was a sign they were a good tool in the toolbox but not overly efficient. But I think after the feedback and I most likely to be wrong about Chimeras and Bullgryns.

[@strawberrypuddin8919]

That little spiel at the end was so inspiring. I'm taking a death strike missile launcher to my next game 😤

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Hey... I've done it 😆 it was more effective than I had anticipated because it did help me control my opponents board positioning, which can be very strong. Actual damage... meh.

[@nedchirgwin2803]

The death strike needs to deal more damage to be an effective threat.

[@ronjamin1022]

I’ve had a blast with Bullgryn. Their defensive profile makes them great to sit on the center objective. Had someone charge Terminators, Wulfen, and Intercessors at them. The Bullgryn, along with Straken and 20 boys held the center.

[@TheIceniCheifx10]

Okay so I’m going to have to disagree with you on multiple points Firstly the reason why guard at the moment are achieving higher win percentages and tournament wins is not due to the change to voice of command ability. The main change is the current meta sits at a very good place where we have very little to no bad matchups currently making are pure power via datasheets more prevalent Secondly I feel you vastly underestimate how good bullgryn are they as a key unit on most uk guard players armys currently for a number of reason 1 the reduction of damage with a 6+++ fnp when the amount of 2 damage makes them incredibly hard to shift even when you fail the 4++ invul especially in combat 2 they effectively are hard to shift in combat or shooting so good for holding your opponent up to allow your indirect and direct to begin to wear down there units Because of this I very much doubt they will be getting a point deduction

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Thanks for those points! I think those are definitely things I had considered.

[@dominicl5862]

I 100% back up this comment. I don't understand how we are talking about gameplay balance and effectiveness of units and CSS's argument for Ogryn are good immediately went to "They are super fun, they fit the narrative, all around super cool... but they die super quick " Like we are talking about mechanics here not flavor I thought. The bulls are super tacky at 160 and they have a completely different role than Ogryn. Ya if u running bullgryns in transports and hop em out with grenadier gauntlets and try to use them as Ogryn shock troops they gonna suck, and do no DMG.

[@jacket2848]

Aye they're one of our best units. You can really tell who only plays super casual games by the stuff they think is good

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

@jacket2848 am I a super casual player? I mean, I have a preference for narrative games, but I also do tournaments and competitive leagues. I think it's just a matter of opinion and play style in general.

[@cavemansam8400]

I think Guard have a good W/L not due to raw power.. but depth of data sheets. The internal balance of our codex is really good. We can’t do as many obviously cool and OP things as 9th codex but we have enough synergies that you can start harvesting that power and summing it all up but then the costing is mostly spot on so there’s not any obvious best way to combine all the synergies. It means Guard lists can be incredibly varied so we’re hard to sus out. Compare that to world eaters where you know what they’re going to do each and every time.

[@primarisgreen]

I'm interested in how your buddy makes the FOB work. I really like the model but it does seem a bit over-costed for what you get. Unit review for that soon?

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Hopefully so! I am trying to finish a Heavy Lascannon version before I shoot that one. They are basecoateda already.

[@primarisgreen]

@@CadianSergeantSteel Nice. Yeah I think 4 Str 14 lascannon shots is nothing to sniff at but being made of paper pretty much makes it so the bombast seems like the most sensible choice.

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Agree. Maybe when we get a codex, they will get separated into three separate units.

[@Corgilius]

Bullgryns are a hidden gem and I will die on this hill. They’re slow, but they’re also great at taking hits. They’re okay at chewing up medium infantry and -1 damage is fantastic. They’re durable and you can’t say no to that face.

[@ThePungljung]

I really hope they dont increase the points on the chimera. The only reason i dont run six is that i only own five. Almost always run infantry squads with autocannons in them.

[@HiraethCustomCrafts]

May I ask why you choose the Autocannon over the Las Cannon ?

[@ThePungljung]

@@HiraethCustomCrafts i prefer the multiple shots and versatility. I often find that all my hk missiles and lascannons from my other tanks provide enough antitank.

[@rklkify]

hoping they make FOBs cheaper

[@SuperJellyRobot]

So glad I found your channel

[@357Dejavu]

Great video! Liked, Subscribed, Rang the bell and +1 Comment for the guard and the algorithm!

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Welcome aboard! I appreciate the support!

[@gilesparkes2922]

Maybe, just maybe we get a new detachment rule/option. We don't need any increases imho, but that nerf bats probably going to land somewhere, Kasrkin, Chimera, Basilisk seem likely. Some rules clarifications would be nice though. Thanks for the content.

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Thanks for watching! I really appreciate it.

[@badrabbit9703]

New keybord. Tons of typos.

[@jerrytoppins]

I think you have a bit of wishlisting in this but I agree with many of the predictions. Krieg Blobs with Psyker and Marshal is a great road block. Bullgryn with Brute shield and maul are still ok as a roadblock. FOB bombast are really good for me. stick them in a corner make it hard to charge them and focus all shots on one good target until it is gone. Early in the game I suggest Scout Sentinels spotting your best target, take aim, fields of fire on one unit. If possible have something set up to distract from anything shooting or charging the FOBs. Krieg blobs on objectives are a great distraction. add in a couple earthshakers if possible.

[@Roblecop]

I hope Valkyrie's go down in points. If the Kasrkin went up to 110 and the Valkyrie went down to 170-180 I'd be happy.

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Ditto!

[@ragzaugustus]

Kasrkin will probably just lose stacking order, a rules commentary or a tweak to the poorly written rules, that should do it nicely. And that's it, win rate is still under 50%, so a hope all of our Officers get a 10 points buff and that's about all I imagine. Nobody uses fucking aircraft, for fucks sake.

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

I use my aircraft 🙃 so that's at least 1 guard player out of the millions of us 🤣

[@SuperJellyRobot]

@@CadianSergeantSteelit's ok I use my aircraft too lol

[@mikeg8564]

I love our Tanks in this game, but i like to run the cheap ones, the Eradicator and Vanquisher are good! if not amazing, you just need to use them correctly. I hope the Balance update allows me to use more powerful units because Meta Chasers and Redditors are blind to these units.

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Truer words have not been spoken in these comments yet. Reddit is a cesspool of nay sayers and negative views.

[@alejandrotorcida9607]

Hope you are wrong :c i love my dkok blobs with marshall, they are expensive, but its the only thing i can use to resist the volleys of enemy fire :,v and mele. . . hope they just buff the cadians or other infantry rather than nerf my beloved korps

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

I think the Marshall should stay right where it is and hopefully that happens 🤞

[@Pedro1136]

Honestly feel like I’m playing a different army to other guard players at this point.

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Sorry to hear that. Could be your local meta too. Maybe most of the opposing armies are good counters for your force.

[@cavemansam8400]

The Valk just doesn’t have enough raw guns on it; the heavy Bolters and the pods with transport are roughly equivalent to a 70 point chimera (without firing deck) and then let’s say a single scout sentinels with lascanon for 60 for the las. That’s 150 points. You’ve got no daring recon, which is a huge force multiplier and grav chute insertion is very ‘meh’ - it needs a big points cut and a much better special rule.

[@cavemansam8400]

Maybe the covering fire rule from the Crassus / Taurox with rerolls to wound for the disbarkers. Would make sense with the strength 8/9 of plasma and melta guns.

[@ProxyHammer1]

Kasrkin 120 Chimera 80 Basilisk 150

[@cavemansam8400]

Kriegers go to 70 points? My Deathriders: Kowabunga it is! 💀

[@Jaybirderino]

On the one hand, my list leans on Death Korps squads, but on the other hand I'm experimenting with Bullgryn and have 10 Rough Riders... I suppose if you turn out to be right my list will come out even? Hah

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Which I suspect... I'll only be 30% right, if that at all 🤣 it's so hard to guess what GW might do

[@lordcastellan4735]

I think a unit everyone is sleeping on is the death riders. They have been putting in work for me.

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Love to hear this! I wish I already had ten painted but not yet.

[@lordcastellan4735]

@CadianSergeantSteel just remember, they need a Squadron Commander too. He gives them infiltrate.

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

@@lordcastellan4735 maybe that's what I should have bought rather than Macharius Vanquisher 🤯

[@andrewking8811]

Suggesting bullgryn get points decrease must be an April fools joke those things are taken in competitive lists a lot lol

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Hmm, that's a good oversight on my part. I've seen Ogryn popping up more recently and missed seeing many Bullgryn at Adepticon. I guess I should have looked harder 😅 I was too busy looking for heretics to destroy

[@andrewking8811]

@@CadianSergeantSteel I'm expecting Kasrkin nerf manticore nerf and bullgryn nerf with buffs to various other units. Do I think they need them? No, but it seems like what they'll do. No way they buff aircraft or arty unfortunately

[@justinvanvolkenburg5298]

I am interested in a review of other factions if that is possible.

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Oh, like, what I think might happen to other factions? Hmm... I might not be well enough in the loop to do predictions on them but I could definitely talk about the actual changes when those drop. Would that be something you'd want?

[@TheKSL25]

Some real misses of the mark here. Absolutely zero chance of Bullgryn going down; they're only going up. Very popular in meta lists; really not sure how you've missed that.

[@patrickbaillargeon7568]

Did this man really say Bullgyrn are worse than Ogryn? And he thinks the Thunderbolt is good?

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Come at me. I'll 1v1 any guard player anytime 🤣🤣🤣

[@andreacornaglia3066]

I fear basilisk's gonna go up

[@RockyX123]

CAN THEY FIX TEMPESTUS SCION COMMAND SQUAD GETTING VOICE OF COMMAND?

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

They do have access to Orders, they just used poor phrasing for it. I think anyone who says they don't get the VoC because it says "issue an order" instead of that is being a butthead about it.

[@mattkelly6226]

Except Scions do have it lol. The phrasing is wack but they do get it

[@RockyX123]

@@mattkelly6226They do not have the Voice of Command Keyword that all the other characters in Guard codex do. I'm 100% sure noone would argue they can issue orders. I just want them to fix the Datasheet so it's standardized like all the others.

[@lukebeaton1241]

I mean…. If we’re truly at 50%, unless they break the units you mentioned that need a buff, seems like a poor choice to nerf anything points or otherwise. Fingers crossed

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Even if a few things go up and a few things go down, it should, if done well, come out in the wash for balanced lists. The triple Kasrkin in a lot of winning lists has me concerned the most. But there are a lot of units we aren't seeing play at highly competitive levels which signals we should get some decreases too. Fingers crossed though. We know how GW is with their promises, they often end up delivering a luke warm result.

[@DiceandGlory]

Rattlings need a point decrease, compare them to eldar rangers

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

I've had good results with my Ratlings, to my own surprise. They are really good at killing Space Marines and screening during deployment.

[@gfazekas25]

ratling sniper is generally better with ap2 instead of ap1, and the move shenanigan is slightly more reliable on ratlings. Tbh as i tried both in themselves ratlings are better, Rangers overwhelm them the second Illic joins in but that cannot be balanced by points

[@stephen9to5]

I hope they cut the torox prime or the Scions.

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

Cut them? As in take them out of the codex?

[@stephen9to5]

@@CadianSergeantSteel cut the points or honestly move them to that rumored agents of the imperium book. I have 85 Scions and 7 Toraux primes. I miss my full Scion army

[@desitri2956]

@@stephen9to5 or remove the tempestus prime rule where he needs to be the warlord to baseline scions

[@jerrytoppins]

FOB!!!

[@teslabull5422]

2 FOB statistically does 0.6W to a knight. You would need 36 squads (approx 4000pts) to kill 1 knight. Cool story bro

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

With Daring Recon buff alone, a single squad does 1.3 wounds, that's 3.9 damage with 3 squads then, on average. With Daring Recon, Take Aim, and 3 squads, that jumps up to 7.7 wounds (you gain Sustained Hits 1). Remember that Knight is only saving on 4+ against this, without the Leman Russ Exterminator buff. So that means, both ways, there is A LOT of swing on what these could do. Could be 14 Damage on a bad set of saving throws... could be 28 damage with an epic set of rolls (don't forget the Sustained Hits from the orders). Knights only have 22 wounds and a 3+ save. It is feasible to knock one down a turn with 3 FOBs. So, cool math, dud.

[@teslabull5422]

@@CadianSergeantSteel add daring recon and take aim and sustained hits per 2 model battery (knight gets 3+ save v indirect) = (7/9*7)to hit(*1.25sustained)(*1/3)to wound(*1/3)failed save(*2damage) = 1.51w or with exterminator extra ap 2.26W... Back to school for you I think

[@CadianSergeantSteel]

@teslabull5422 you're still missing the swing of this and your math doesn't take into account highs and lows. I'm looking at probability and feasibility. You're ONLY looking at averages, which doesn't work in this scenario.

[@teslabull5422]

Yes you do know it could swing the other way and do no damage just as iften as a damage spike. So taking down a knight reliably in 1 turn is pure fantasy ​@CadianSergeantSteel

[@troddenarcher9652]

He's cooking! Great stuff.🤌