2024 QB Class Deep Dive with Dane Brugler

It’s QB Day on The Athletic Football Show! Robert Mays, Nate Tice and Dane Brugler bring you an extensive look at the top QBs in the 2024 draft class. They dive into the film of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy. Plus, they also talk about Michael Penix, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler and where they could land.
0:00 Intro
2:36 Overview of 2024 QB class
7:34 Caleb Williams
33:17 Drake Maye
58:28 Jayden Daniels
1:15:09 JJ McCarthy
1:33:51 Michael Penix, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler
#nfldraft #nflfootball #calebwilliams
For more Athletic Football Show content:
- Subscribe to The Athletic Football Show on Apple Podcasts: apple.co/3LgLlMY
- Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/footballshow

[@arsmor1end1]

We need a Nate Tice vs. JT O'Sullivan debate on Drake Maye!

[@jordanxwilliams]

!!!! This !!! I would love a honest debate with people who feel strongly about any of these guys either way

[@derekb2405]

You can substitute JT with ANY former NFL QB or coach not named Tim Hasselbeck. Actual NFL people all have Daniels #2.

[@Josh-ek2zu]

Almost 2 hours? Lets gooo!

[@TheAthleticNFL]

WOOOOO!

[@tariqmohideen3895]

That looks on Robert Mays' face when Dane Brugler is talking about Caleb's football instincts is EVERY Bears fan (at least those with common sense) right now.

[@choosecarefully408]

The Bears' future doesn't hinge on CW. You already had a franchise QB who made them the #1 offense 3 weeks in a row with 1) his own HC actively undermining him, 2) the o-line allowing pass rushers straight through to him 3) being ordered to not throw to certain receivers on certain plays, not even if they came open. Not even if they were the *only receivers* to come open. Is the micro-managing HC gonna leave the offense un-meddled with now? Unlikely.

[@lemuelmcgowan114]

@@choosecarefully408 such a great response and different perspective. CW isnt gonna equal success but will be the key ingredient. The #2 pick will see sucess alot sooner imo. Bears fans i feel will find ot hard to stay optimistic if they keep losing no matter who they pick

[@choosecarefully408]

@@lemuelmcgowan114I don't think that the Bears "are bad" because of any fairy-tale curse. I think that Poles & Eberflus had a goal & wouldn't allow what's bad for the team interfere with it. You didn't flinch with my 3) above. I accused them of sabotaging a young player's career & their entire team's future & this got _no reaction_ from you? Either you think it's altogether false or you know it's true in which case shifting the discussion to CW is what? An attempt to not truly acknowledge the problem(s)? The fans can get the people harming their team fired. Steelers fans got Matt Canada out on Kenny Pickett's behalf in less time than Eberflus has been in CHI (Trubisky started the first 4 games or so) so this is possible. I don't know why anyone would want to keep the guys who already had a CW-level QB (wtf can CW do that Fields can't? Anyone?) but denied you the potentially élite o-line &/or WR to go along with it.

[@jasonmahr5397]

Caleb has BUST written all over him. - 5 consecutive USC QB Busts after Carson Palmer. - Played in pass-happy No-defense Pac-12. - Undersized at 6’1”, which matters a lot more in NFL than college - Basic, simplistic, QB-friendly Lincoln Riley spread offense that inflates QB production and doesn’t translate to NFL - Known for his out-of-structure, backyard football plays. Playing in-structure is not good, which doesn’t bode well for the NFL. - Squeaky clean pockets from the shotgun with a deep secure firm pocket up the middle, tons of room to step up. His NFL pockets will be nothing like his USC pockets. - The Chicago Bears franchise has NEVER produced a Franchise QB, ever. This has all the makings of an epic, all-time Bust.

[@gentlemans.guidance365]

​@@jasonmahr5397 get over it. Justin in home forever and Caleb is a bear, Jaden is inferior to Caleb

[@marcus_aurelius8214]

Glad this is posted publicly, I love hearing these 2 well respected analysts no BS no drama no fluff I love it. These 3 know what it takes Wish the athletic was more like this nowadays, too bad it’s falling apart

[@dezzdinn]

the most interesting point i took from this is what the eval was on Bryce Young last year. A player who is below or close to average in every physical aspect and the credit he was supposed to have was the anticipation. I dont give a damn where any of you think a qb will go. I love how you see where they will win or lose at.

[@lemuelmcgowan114]

Success imo is mainly determined in the scheme they are drafted to. Will the OCs demand the young QBs to run their scheme or will they cater to the QB. If their scheme is QB friendly then even better but all the QB friendly imo (besides Vikings) are non existent. Would love your thoughts

[@choosecarefully408]

@@lemuelmcgowan114Cian Fahey did a video isolating what Bryce did before play-calling or lack of on-field talent ruined things. As we all thought in the preseason, he's so identical to Stroud they may as well be clones of each other. If on-field talent & play-calling aren't factors, then the Chiefs are already winners. I don't know what it is with analysts & fans but you all repeatedly lose your minds every other second & forget this & it's extremely annoying. I don't want Young to lose his potential because of this but already AOC & Howell aren't even being _discussed_ as busts, it's already decided. & for all we know neither has developed yet.

[@dj7973]

Thanks guys.

[@TheAthleticNFL]

You bet!

[@joeynickles7962]

Hicks hand timed at 4.48…standard pro day deduction of .05…so 4.53 sounds about right. The linear explosiveness is there on tape.

[@steve8654]

Sub. Scribed. This was great, guys.

[@FlowerPewnnannie-ry5tj]

Love you guys

[@TheAthleticNFL]

Love you more!

[@cm32343]

This was great

[@Electric_Funeral]

Talking about JJ McCarthy’s athleticism as a B+ would be incorrect. Everyone is obsessed with 40 times, and though JJ didn’t run a 40 he did record a 6.82 3-cone, which is bonkers fast. I believe it was top 6 at ANY position at the combine, and probably a more important measure of the kind of pocket athleticism/agility than straight line speed. That is A+++ athleticism. Not saying he deserves to be picked 4th, just let’s be real about what kind of an athlete he is

[@lemuelmcgowan114]

A+ is waaaay too generous. Lamar Jackson is A+. B plus is really good for any athlete at the highest level. The consensus is that McCarthy is a great athlete with mobility. Lets leave the letter grades out of it

[@bronton21]

Fantastic

[@TheAthleticNFL]

Thanks for watching!!

[@RKGrizz]

Sometimes I just don't understand where people land on evaluations. Looking over the top 100 players Brugler has made, Malik Willis was Brugler's 32nd prospect in '22 but he basically a gimmick QB who threw hitches and go balls. Meanwhile Penix is the most productive passer in college for the past two years leading his team to the National Title game but is his 57th ranked player. How can you watch those two for any amount of time and conclude that Willis should be drafted higher than Penix in a given year? Maybe I am stupid, maybe it is all just physical upside that drives these QB ranking. Someone explain please.

[@Frostypower]

It's different draft classes, so it is possible there's just more talent in this class and therefore Malik would also be lower. Then you have to factor in he has probably learned from his evaluation and he has slightly different views now than he had back then. People are allowed to be wrong and learn from it

[@choosecarefully408]

People do not have room in their heads for the concept of more than one #1. So they can't accept greatness in two & have to knock whoever else down 50 or 60 notches, not one. So they exaggerate all the negatives to ridiculous proportions. The fact that Penix has played this well _after the injuries_ is never mentioned, hasn't anyone noticed? It *has to be* made into something bigger than it is to Make Sure so people's tiny minds don't get overwhelmed by having more than one favorite. Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers have all suffered from this to a huge extent. Rodgers has a worse winning % in playoff games where he's throw 3 or more TDs than Brady has in ones he's thrown 3 or more INTs, clearly the QB is a better _player_ but since most people can't equate Individual Effort, they regard the worse QB as better. Everyone else is regarded as A Prime Loser regardless of actuality.

[@PoorFamz]

Different draft class = different amount of quality prospects. I'd imagine if Willis was in this draft class, he wouldn't even be generally ranked in the top 100..

[@brianmulholland2467]

I've been cooling on Jayden for awhile now after viewing him and Maye as effectively tied for awhile, but while almost everything in this video is stuff I've also heard elsewhere, it really threw that extra bucket of icewater on him for me. The size/injury risk, not throwing over the middle, eyes down scrambling, having taken 5 years to break out, the lack of creativity despite being very efficient and productive...everything around Jayden just smells like a bust despite eye-popping collegiate productivity and the fact that he seems like a pretty good prospect on the surface. PFF also cited that he had a very bad sack rate, and bad sack rates are a thing that tend to be very predictive (though good ones less so).

[@choosecarefully408]

Then by all means, allow some other team to draft him. Problem solved.

[@lemuelmcgowan114]

I wish it were more time on other QBs than hearing about the clear cut number 1 for so long. With Dane being soooo good at the draft, i love hearing breakdowns of later guys and learning more about hidden gems

[@infiniteye5230]

Exactly! It gets so monotonous.

[@SharifAbdou]

When i watch Drake Maye (the good and the bad) I see young Brett Favre. I'm not saying Maye will have Favee's career, but I see similarities. Not prime Favre, young Favre. Southern Miss Favre. Rookie on the Falcons bench Favre. Unbridled bucking bronco Favre. There's a similar frantic, improvisational quality to how Maye plays, especially when the play breaks down. Ideally Maye goes to a stable, patient organization with a bridge QB in place and a good young offensive-minded head coach who can relate to him, minimize Maye's weaknesses and emphasize his strengths. I think the ideal landing spot is the Vikings.

[@jakeMontejo3272]

No one on YT has watched the three years of JJM, only this year. The progression hasn’t been truly analyzed. These guys actually are one of the few that have talked about his pre snap checks, the third down conversations, the NFL offense he ran, the most detailed. The interview process is also not talked about enough. Everyone not in those rooms only have film, the teams supposedly interested have that plus the thought process. The weight is a huge concern & if he goes to a bad offensive line team & a defensive HC, bust potential.

[@benmankiewicz5348]

the hype of daniels from orlovsky and others is weird.

[@LangHues]

think alot of analysts are looking at how polished JD is (5th yr starter) and not projecting to the league. its why Orlovsky isn’t a scout

[@TheMattTrakker]

He's the same dude who said Fields was going to be MVP in 2023-2024. Dan is either playing a role for ESPN, or has absolutely no ability to actually evaluate football talent.

[@choosecarefully408]

It's not difficult to figure out at all. You know how every superhero has multiple villains? These small-minded analysts are incapable of having space for two great QBs in their heads, plain & simple. They can't elevate one without also relegating the other(s) to being garbage. "There can Only Be One!"

[@Harker911]

@@TheMattTrakker It's definitely a bit of a role. They work in media after all. All these analysts probably see the same stuff but hang onto different things due to preference. Some analysts look at Drake Maye and focus on the wow throws and others look at the same tape and see the 5-6 bad throws he makes a game. Kurt Warner probably has the most realistic take: you don't know a guy is the guy until after the fact. QB eval is extremely complicated, especially when you can have a QB turn out to be a 30-35 td guy but consistently fails to play well in big games or big moments.

[@KamuiCage]

At least JD showed it on the field the hype around JJ is weird dude has gone from 2nd round to 2 overall in march

[@AkamatsuCreative]

Love the Athletic guys- and can't believe how much content they put out. It's gotta be beyond exhausting to rehash these same topics a billion times. I really hope the Athletic Football Show or H&J can get Chris Simms on to talk about his QB (and other positional) rankings. He's one of the few respected analysts not always singing from the same analysts consensus hymn book (case in point- on Drake Maye), and he's extremely thorough in his reasoning and thought process. Watches all the film, too.#BearDown.

[@infiniteye5230]

I don't believe he watches "all" the film. You can kind of tell in his analysis that he's not watching enough film. It seems to me he develops his opinion from watching only a handful of games of most prospects.

[@AkamatsuCreative]

​@@infiniteye5230 I respect that idea, and you could be right. But I sense that he watches as much or more than anyone else, a lot of whom also don't seem to watch "everything" - I doubt they have the time. His whole branding in the pre-draft realm is based on putting himself out there, and waiting until Jan/Feb to put his actual final annual rankings together based on his tape analysis. So I would guess he doesn't shortcut it by exposing himself to "you didn't even watch all the games" criticism. Usually he says directly when he didn't watch enough games of somebody to have an opinion. My point is, that when i leave his breakdowns, i feel he has actually turned over a lot of stones, but a lot of these others seem to pretty much be repeating the same "takeaways". Which is exactly why I think it would be fascinating for the audience to hear Simms give his takes in the presence of ppl who have seemingly come to completely different conclusions (on Maye, for example). Similarly, Merril Hoge who has said emphatically that Caleb Williams "is not special" would be a great guest for this QB conversation.

[@brianp9268]

This i so good

[@richj011]

I expect CW to be more than a tier above Kyler Murray. What will differentiate Caleb from most other QB's is his football IQ. He hangs in the pocket and always looking downfield. If the O-line gives him time he'll pick you apart

[@jodyfoster9278]

I think the hanging in the pocket is one of Williams biggest weaknesses. He has gotten uses to holding the ball way to long looking for the wow throws instead of taking what's there and getting rid of the ball. Every time I saw him do it, I thought Zach Wilson, I am not saying he is anything like Zach Wilson, but Wilson would hold the ball and wait for the wow throws. It got him drafted high but it turned out that style doesn't work in the NFL.

[@jailbreak852]

Pretty difficult not to be influenced, that's true

[@KillTheBoxScore]

Its going to be funny 3-4 years from now when the last 3 they just threw in briefly are more relevant than a number of the guys that got full features lol

[@JJ-zr6fu]

With Penix people are discounting arm talent and winning. If he’s healthy I think he becomes a nfl starter.

[@jodyfoster9278]

I think one thing that hurts Penix and Nix is that they have played too much college football. Same with Daniels for that matter. Playing five- or six-years college football mean that the players development is possibly topped out.

[@lukiepookie6227]

@@jodyfoster9278penix only played 12 more career games than caleb

[@jodyfoster9278]

@@lukiepookie6227 Yeah but Penix is a year and a half older and has played 6 season or at least part of 6, compared to Williams having only played 3. That should be twice the opportunity to develop. I am not knocking Penix just saying that's one thing that teams look at.

[@MaynardGKrebs-tt1dd]

Caleb wants be be the FB version of Michael Jordan.

[@michaelberry1657]

i feel like the Maye has a lot of Lamar to his eval good (elite arm, pocket playmaking) and bad (footwork, spray misses, pressing at times)

[@jaarc1437]

His arm is kinda weak ngl he never throws with zip

[@gentlemans.guidance365]

If Farve and Rodgers had a baby it would be Caleb Williams. A lot of you guys are being blinded by him trolling the media. He can BALL 🏈

[@justinboyce1285]

I'll laugh my tail off if Maye is the worst QB of the bunch. Nate is so sure he is going to the HOF.

[@bouji_]

I'll believe four QB's in the first four picks when I see it.

[@mgclooper11]

McCarthy only threw the ball 8 times against Penn State

[@jodyfoster9278]

Actually 10 but two plays were taken away by penalty. But either way he completed 7 of them...

[@paulmansfield6029]

Dane’s the best

[@lemuelmcgowan114]

Just a clear transcendent talent when it comes to evaluating talent. Has taught me how to love players and articulate criticisms of players

[@TheAthleticNFL]

The BEST!

[@vincedidiana5781]

Dane is great. I like Kiper a tad more. Probably because I’m older and grew up watching Mel. Both blue chippers.

[@darai62]

2023: QB1 - YOUNG QB2 - Stroud None of it’s a crime. Brugler is clearly is very good at what he does. Just pointing out the obvious … it’s NOT a pure science.🤨

[@TheMattTrakker]

Daniels is going to be the biggest dissapointment in the first round.

[@Bourbakii]

What’s the goal with the Herbert/Allen thing? Are we saying Herbert with Allen’s brain is a superior QB to both guys separately? Or are we saying Herbert with Allen’s brain is like “look now we have 2 of them and it’s awesome”

[@GeorgesOpinion]

These guys hyped Zach Wilson btw

[@rhdtv2002]

Zach was hyped by bunch of so called experts.

[@gregkut1]

Who has a quick release and can throw with timing, accuracy and velocity? The really good QBs get it out fast, the long windup QBs never make it.

[@OlDirtyNomad]

Lmao Drake may only throw a post route down the middle. He's the 4th best QB in this class

[@obtusemooose]

lakers fan

[@OlDirtyNomad]

@@obtusemooose facts so I know about winning

[@Daniel_Capital]

The “Group Think” Podcast

[@Str1fe5]

You guys did a terrible job of making Daniels sound like a better QB than McCarthy and made Nix sound undraftable 😂

[@OneMansOdyssey]

Maye's competitiveness rules out the Cutler worst case scenario, lol, unless he channels that ref-directed rage from the NCSU game towards his OL...

[@Portuducks]

Hmm what Cutler was able to do at Vanderbilt in his senior year was pretty amazing stuff, considering that most of his supporting cast were future doctors, lawyers, and business executives going against SEC blue chippers whose future plans were NFL or bust. If that's not a sign of competitiveness, I don't know what else to tell you.

[@JJ-zr6fu]

Hardbaugh loved mccarthy so much he didn’t use him. Look at the time mccarthy had to lead his team to victory. That TCU game shows you why Michigan didn’t use mccarthy

[@jodyfoster9278]

did you watch or just look at the box score?

[@KaneGregory]

It blows my mind that people think Drake and Jayden are better than Caleb?🧠🤯🔫

[@ronaldk.wileyjr.5476]

We Chicagoans are 💯% "gogetit & don't be a Bi#ch about it", we saw Justin be tough in his situation (mentally & physically) that's what earned him the respect. Hopefully, Caleb can display this type of GRIT in addition to winning. If he does, he will be the ICON he wants to be. Nochill... Chi-town up, BEARDOWN!

[@RadNoises]

Lmao Caleb is the softest top prospect I’ve ever seen, like I’m not even kidding he might quit a game at halftime

[@marcus_aurelius8214]

@@RadNoisesMaybe watch a video before commentating next time bro

[@gentlemans.guidance365]

His coaches and teammates compare his mentality to Kobe. They call him Caleb Bryant

[@loubest37]

Nate "Bobblehead" Tice.

[@FantasySportsZen]

😂

[@morrowthewizard3945]

Tell em you don’t watch enough Daniels he has a ridiculous amount of throws on the run

[@parulp6385]

"Drake Maye's arm is insane" - huh? He has an above average arm. It's not in the same league as Caleb,Mahomes, Rodgers, Allen. He misses wide open WR's that aren't on the screen

[@Swerve-Online]

It's hard to take this crew seriously when they only watch 4 games. Sounds like they are going to get their heart broken.When l Daniels goes 2nd and May falls.

[@tonyk7387]

Nate still on the Maye is the best hill I see. Yikes

[@DJxDinero]

Daniels >> Maye

[@MaynardGKrebs-tt1dd]

As a Bears fan, Caleb reminds me of Aaron Rodgers. I always hated Rodgers, but his way of dealing with COVID impressed me. He is an independent thinker and I suspect that Caleb is as well, for better or worse.

[@vonjingo911]

The way you guys made EVERY positive excuse/projection for Drake Maye and somehow, for the guy who arguably had one of the best college football seasons ever, you nitpick every perceived flaw in his game, to include comparing him to, “Johnny Knoxville” which is truly disrespectful. I’ve been watching football longer than all of you guys have been alive and I can tell you this, all that nonsense you all are talking about Jayden Daniels is just that, nonsense! I’ve watched both of these guys play, and not highlights, I’m referring to full games and I’ll tell you this, if I’m a defensive coordinator, I’m not going to lose too much sleep game-planning for Drake Maye. Because, there’s already a blueprint for defending players like him. Defending players like Jayden Daniels and those of his ilk, way, way harder. You make a mistake against Drake, and he can hit you over the top for a one play score. You make a mistake against Jayden, he can hit you over the top for a one play score OR he can tuck it and run for a one play score from anywhere on the field! That’s the difference!! And as far as his size is concerned, there was a guy who played in the 80s and 90s who was 6’4” and weighed 210 pounds. His name….Randall Cunningham. He seemed to do just fine during his era. And the last time I checked, Jayden won’t be facing the likes of LT, Ronnie Lott, the 85 Bears like Randall did. So in my opinion, Jayden will do just fine.

[@Zahkia]

Drake Maye will have a far more successful NfL career than Jayden Daniels. It seems like you’re personally attacked by this sentiment but it will happen.

[@TheMattTrakker]

Ok and why would anyone care about your evaluation? Because you said so? Jayden is 210 the same way Bryce Young was 204. Subtract about 20 lbs to get your actual playing weight.

[@joeynickles7962]

In the first instance, the length of time one has devoted to watching football does not necessarily correspond to the facility with which one watches football. Second, it is possible for people who are good football evaluators to disagree on evaluations. That’s a perfectly reasonable thing. One of the great things about the game is the complexity it offers and within that complexity different interpretations of the evidence are often very reasonable and often lead to very different conclusions, especially in the context of player evaluation, which has an inherent subjective aspect to it, as well as an element of, more or less, soothsaying, i.e. “projection”. Your argument for Daniels over Maye as you present it here is thin and it more or less boils down to: Maye can beat you with the deep ball but Daniels can beat you with the deep ball AND his legs. That’s fine as far as it goes but there’s so much more to playing the position well than just those things. I may (maye?) or may not agree with you but I think you’re argument would be more compelling if it were more expansive and detailed.

[@lemuelmcgowan114]

@@joeynickles7962 this!!!! I literally love true breakdowns of stats, game moments and actual analytical stances than tenure to convey a point. Im a Maye believer but I love Daniels as well

[@vonjingo911]

@@joeynickles7962Let me say that I agree with most of your points. The length of time I’ve been watching the game does afford me the ability to be able to have a lived, real time account of over 40 plus years of acquired football knowledge. There’s no way to quantify that by going back and forth in a comment section so I’m not going to try. And as far as articulating my opinion/point in greater detail, I wasn’t interested in giving a thesis on “how to pick an NFL Quarterback” I just wanted to offer my perspective, however brief, on what I watched.

[@milanmilanov348]

Caleb Williams in the NFL will be a unmitigated disaster, a clusterf**k of historic proportions. Forget about his talent, instincts, etc - in the end of the day, we are talking about a me,me,me-first infantile narcissist trying to fit in the ultimate team-first sport. The Bears should draft Drake Maye but won't because they will bow to the pressure of expert opinion that surrounds them.

[@gentlemans.guidance365]

😂 no they will draft Caleb because he's the best in the draft. You're letting your bigoted spirit keep you from being biased. The guy is special and you are a hater for no reason

[@milanmilanov348]

@@gentlemans.guidance365 When that dumpster fire in Chicago is in full force, you feel free to remind your showflake butt that someone saw it from it afar.

[@dannyevilcat]

"Forget about Caleb's talent, and focus on the make-believe BS that has been disproven again and again"

[@SantaBarbaraSongbird]

Nate Tice and Robert Mays are so overrated, and their analysis for many players is just about confirming their priors no matter what. I'll alwaya downvote their shows if they come across my feed. Done with them after 3 years.

[@BigJoeChestnut]

This Giants fan loves Daniel Jones I just wish Joe Judge and Jason Garrett didn’t murder his career. Then Dabol year one and he outplays Kirk Cousins with the inferior team in Minnesota. Maybe draft him a number 1 WR so his best pass catcher he’s played with isn’t old Golden Tate. Oh and perhaps get him a line that’s not 40th out of 32 NFL teams.

[@c00per69]

JJ best QB period he plays hockey and at a serious game speed...enough said.

[@gentlemans.guidance365]

😂 keep lying to yourself

[@inst4rmin.x4_onYT]

Why on earth would you put Josh Allen's brain into anyone else's body..?!? Josh Allen is physically already arguably the most gifted QB the NFL has (and maybe has ever had).. Yes, Herbert has a great arm too and is hovering around the same level in terms of arm talent, but he's certainly not superior to Allen in that regard, because both are already on the all time elite of elites tier as far as that goes. So that part of this discussion is not making any sense at all...