$4,800 River Jam! Deep-Stack Dilemma: Call or Fold?

[@CrushlivePoker]

Do you agree that the villian may not have gone for a river raise if the hero's bet sizing had been larger on turn and river?

[@WesBundy82]

100% agree

[@WesBundy82]

Really Bart.. I couldn't agree more with your assessment of the hand ❤

[@Brookschef]

Hero’s line doesn’t make sense for JJ. AA doesn’t have much that can call him, so I almost prefer a check on the end. I’ve seen too many live nits who play this way. Wait to make sure the flush misses and then jam. 44 makes total sense and I think he’s going to jam either way.

[@justinhart7172]

Haha yeah not happening. Villain is going with it especially his type. He’s not flatting out of fear. He’s planning to river jam period

[@pot_kivach160]

I do. That is a strong point. The way he played, H represented top pair or 2 top pairs. so a great reason for V jam.

[@EfficientRVer]

A story as old as time. Three pairs no good.

[@DavidKrakt]

The 9 on the river doesn't change the hand much. Really it only makes ace 9 catch up. If ace jack was ahead on the turn, it's still ahead on the river.

[@BDG-3000]

Three pair is the nuts in Canada

[@MichaelTilton]

I hate 2 pair. I play them, but I hate them. Best looking hand that loses. Trips, straights, flushes, better 2 pair, quads, They look better than they are. The board pairing is bad for all the reasons (even though it didn't matter here). This is almost NEVER a bluff as played.

[@patrick_kyker]

Double flattings usually a small pair

[@danwoods5501]

One of the worst feelings in poker, catching a card that you think gives you a winning hand but in reality actually seals your fate by giving you a strong enough hand to pay your opponents monster off. However, whats also true is getting raised on the river after betting three consecutive streets is one of the biggest indicators of strength in the game (far too great a risk of getting a bluff called when someone is betting that much unless there is a really, really sick read that you just know it can get through). If the guy actually has the stones to bluff there he kinda deserves the pot. From my personal experience whenever i see that betting pattern occur, more than 9 times out of 10 they have it.

[@juan_huan]

The villain's river jam after hero's bet-bet-bet line is still representative of a ton of strength, despite hero's smallish sizing on river.

[@justinhart7172]

Right but does it matter is it not just a cooler

[@pot_kivach160]

@@justinhart7172 no.

[@myanaloglife9450]

Didn’t see the 44…

[@seslocrit9365]

Villains thought process: I have a full house. I have a full house. I have a full house. A whale who cold calls 3-bets with 4's is never not jamming river. I dont blame the hero for calling, but i think the money was destined to go in as played.

[@Nosirt]

😂😂honestly i think every poker player thought is the same when the boat up.

[@pot_kivach160]

If V's whale, then who's BB? You don't blame calling river shove with a pair, and no (opp hand) reading? How about V saw a whale in front of him, and decided to charge him heavily?

[@ezt5227]

Can we consider A4s turned into a bluff when counterfeit on the river?

[@qlow5956]

From a rec player? Unlikely. That seems like a much more experienced move

[@pot_kivach160]

that's a good point. Strongly dependant on the V profile. LAG would do that. No TAGs/CS. So, you must know who are you up against.

[@darylmixan8170]

Very unlikely as played... Usually in that situation on the river a player says "fuck me" and then doesn't attempt to win the pot

[@theElvin_T]

Villain line with bottom set on that flop def not optimal for 100BB maybe even up to 200BB, but in deep stack game since hand values relatively decrease and nuts to near nuts increases more (threat of river jams when holding two pair say similar to this example), it seems plausible that there is a rather distinct departure of Strat vs 100-200BB effective. Summarily: it is still a risk to not raise flop with bottom set on that board but if flopping cleaner runout where Hero leads small/weak on river, it does suggest hero’s range is less likely closer to the nut or near nuts categories allowing villain to then jam with impunity. Narrowing hero’s range to two pair given run out seems likeliest as pointed out prior in hand pair plus high kicker holdings most likely won’t value bet as often ESPECIALLY 300bb deep meaning the potential to narrow hero’s range by river by taking sub optimal flop decision potentially pays off with larger win on later street

[@theElvin_T]

I almost want to advocate a river size should never be this small unless hero is making small river bets here often enough with much stronger holdings, which in practice is less likely

[@mh_golfer]

Before the reveal, it feels like 44 or air to me. He probably had the hero on AK and wasn't too worried about the flush.

[@kongkronos9772]

He said something that was almost overlooked which is villain can have AJ here. It's recreational live poker he doesn't need to have AJ suited. That's 4 potential combos in a spot where combos are thin. Just cos you're chopping doesn't mean it's not worth something. I think that's more significant than was given credit. Obviously in theory it's a call. It's not even debatable in that regard you're too high up your range to be folding. In practice I also think it's a call. The fact that in rec live poker villain COULD be jamming worse for value (e.g. AK) even if it's less likely means you must call. It makes up for the arguable lack of bluffs. For my live games this isn't a tough spot at all. It's a crying call for the sheer size of it but nobody would be arguing for a fold here. Maybe my villains are punt monkeys though XD

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

My home games it might be more of a fold because villains are bad enough to get to the river with 9x 😂

[@kongkronos9772]

@@JohnSmith-nx7zj Yeah tbf my villains could also get there with a 9 😂Not likely still I have more faith in the standard but it wouldn't be unheard of

[@EllieBanks333]

Obviously a call??

[@kongkronos9772]

@@EllieBanks333 In theory because if you didn't you'd be giving too much to their range if you folded that high up in yours. It's only debatable in practice because of pool tendencies.

[@FuzzypupPoker]

What Bart said is what I thought. I would have called as nothing makes sense OTR and the small bet size.

[@mrhumble2937]

Im fplding this one before results

[@Fred-rg5vw]

Why would hero think that villian would raise 44 on flop? Not many people are gonna flop a huge hand and just make it obv straight away...im a fish and id check the flop all day. If flush hits i slow down otherwise do same as villian did here

[@pot_kivach160]

in multiway pot, on a front door flush draw, a set supposed to raise flop. If you call, and a club hits the board on later streets, you immediately hate the life. That's not why you go play poker.

[@Fred-rg5vw]

@pot_kivach160 Well I'm not sure what your supposed to do. My angle is that there was always gonna be a c bet on that board so it was either a check call or a check raise. If you just call you at least know where you stand and make it look like your on a draw so hero will keep betting. If flush hits sure it gets ugly and probably have to call down..depending on hero's bet sizing / run out. Still have outs to board pairing . But if flush doesn't hit, what happened here happens often and hero calls ypu down / you get it all. Could also shove turn if flush misses of you're that scared of getting outdrawn

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

@@Fred-rg5vwyou’ll still get it all if you raise flop though. Hero can easily put you on a flush draw. Bottom set on an A high flop is a dream spot. You’ve got to start piling in money before any scare cards come.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

@@Fred-rg5vwalso, it can’t be a check-call (or check-raise) because hero is first to act and villain is second. Which actually is probably the only reason in favour of villain’s call. By calling it’s possible that MP and button can call behind. However if you take that line, when they both fold and then BB continues to bet on the turn the turn is just a mandatory raise. With the J coming you could easily have KQcc, KTcc, QTcc for combo draws.

[@Fred-rg5vw]

@JohnSmith-nx7zj I got the positions wrong. To be clear (if it wasn't already) I'm just a rec player. With 2 people after me to act I wouldn't raise. Would see that as giving away the strength of my hand? scaring off the 2 other players .and getting hero to slow down. Moat of the time you'd put hero on top pair good kicker ..so if you just call he's almost always betting the turn ..unless flush hits which might slow him down. Your keeping bluffs in too by just calling..if he thinks you've missed a flush draw he might fire on river with nothing. I'm prob thinking like a fish..

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

This hand is so unlucky for hero. Literally the worst possible runout. With the J giving him top two and then the 9 cutting down on 99 combos. It’s hard to believe he’s ever good on the river but I can’t blame him for calling with his exact hand.

[@corley-ai]

if you put in 1800 on the river, he's still jamming, but it MAY be easier to find the fold.

[@well.thy.one.]

He might even just be turning AK or AQ into a bluff...probably not a high frequency but could add it into the bluffs he could have

[@pot_kivach160]

bluffing what? A FH?

[@Stockhandle123]

I haven't got to the reveal: Preflop needs to be bigger at least $250 but i like $300. Flop needs to be smaller $200-250. Turn needs to be bigger, full pot River needs to be bigger too, B40-B50 if jammed on fold even though you be getting a great price there just are no bluffs there for > 95.% of the 5/10 player pool. As played im folding here against ~90% of the player pool, this guy though is the kind of guy who i could call against. If he had made a bet of 300bb+ at any point so far i like a call, if not i probably randomize, something like if i get the Jd twice in a row i call, any other combo i fold.

[@kevinnovo2197]

Wow great analysis bud. “I would’ve 3! to 6x preflop. Sizing was bad on all streets. For the actual decision I don’t know what to do so I’ll just ‘randomize’”

[@Stockhandle123]

@@kevinnovo2197 the opener raised too small tricking yourselves into three X'ing a small open is just bad especially out of position. On the river I do know what to do call sometimes, fold sometimes. When someone better than you poker posts just read and learn don't comment.

[@kevinnovo2197]

@@Stockhandle123 I agree $180 is too small, I like 4x plus a call most of the time. I was just making fun of your multiple paragraph analysis summing up as “size up, as far the actual decision idk”

[@Stockhandle123]

@@kevinnovo2197 I just really wanted to emphasize that his sizing on every street was bad. As for the river decision I know it's a mix I don't know off the top of my head what the mix is so randomizing seems fine.

[@DJDonkeytron]

What did the villain show??

[@RimmyJob]

44

[@justinhart7172]

What sucks most is heros turn sizing. Cuz then you can think villain can have 9x. If you bet big on turn it makes it so much easier.

[@wompwomp7177]

What flawed logic. It’s like someone used the memory eraser from men in black on you and you don’t remember that hero lead 375 into 4 people on the flop and the straddle called next to act. The straddle literally never has a 9 unless he has A9

[@wompwomp7177]

I agree bet big on turn

[@justinhart7172]

@@wompwomp7177he “shouldn’t” have a 9x, we wouldn’t. But the way he described him I thought it was possible. I could level myself into folding if I looked back at sizings

[@patrick_kyker]

If he's not raising as a bluff and you can't beat his value you just have to fold.

[@skelthouser2730]

Haha. Brilliant!

[@kevinnovo2197]

@@skelthouser2730expert analysis here 😂

[@javierb479]

Gross spot. Should probably fold since only an animal would jam River after a triple barrel. But I’m no pro haha given the villain’s description, what is he doing with 4sX and back door hearts including AhX & JhXh? Is this a cooler?

[@robertf7199]

I guessed villain had 45 of clubs…I was half right and it didn’t cost me anything 😂

[@CGCareerCentral]

This was my thought, that or possibly Q10c, QJc, J10c etc.

[@Yakivegas]

He kind of sounds like the dude who always says rice is a soon food at the end of his videos…

[@checkmugged]

English only at the table please.

[@nicholi2789]

Except that he ONLY plays 1-2 and 1-3. He absolutely refuses to go up in stakes. He’s said it many times. He would get owned in 5-10 and he’s too much of a nit to risk that much money. You’re right though his voice does sound the same.

[@Yakivegas]

@@nicholi2789 I didn’t even think about that😅

[@nicholi2789]

@@Yakivegas he is the nittiest nit who ever nitted.

[@kingwild772]

3k cap nd th villain buys in for 8k?!??! i’m confused

[@LightemupWMH]

$3k cap and Match the Stack. Usually MTS means after the first hour of the table being open you can buy in up to the stack of the biggest stack on the table. So someone at the table had more than $8k. Villain bought in for $8k by matching the stack.

[@kingwild772]

@@LightemupWMH oh okay thanks