4 Archetypes, Shell, 2x2: Top Three Scenario Planning Methods Explained and Compared

This video explains the key differences between three common scenario planning methods used in futures & foresight: the 4 Archetypes method, the Shell Method, and the 2x2 Matrix.
The video is also available in article format: / 4-archetypes-shell-2x2...
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CORRECTION: it is more appropriate to say that the 4 generic futures are predetermined images of the future/archetypes, not predetermined narratives
REFERENCES
Scenario Archetypes Method:
Bengston et al. (2016). Alternative Futures for Forest Based Nanomaterials: An Application of the Manoa School’s Alternative Futures Method: www.researchgate.net/publicat...
Curry & Schultz (2009). Roads Less Travelled: Different Methods, Different Futures: jfsdigital.org/articles-and-e...
Dator (2009). Alternative Futures at the Manoa School: jfsdigital.org/articles-and-e...
Dator (2014). “New beginnings” within a new normal for the four futures: static1.squarespace.com/stati...
Jones, C. (1992). The Manoa School of Futures Studies. Futures Research Quarterly, 8(4): 19-25.
Serra Del Pino (1998). The challenge of teaching futures studies: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1...
Shell Method:
Ramirez & Wilkinson (2014). Rethinking the 2 × 2 scenario method: Grid or frames?: www.sciencedirect.com/science...
Schwartz (1996). The Art of the Long View: www.amazon.com/Art-Long-View-...
Wack (1985). Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead: hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-unc...
Wack (1985). Scenarios: shooting the rapids: hbr.org/1985/11/scenarios-sho...
2X2 Method:
Cairns & Wright (2018). Scenario thinking: Preparing your organization for the future in an unpredictable world: www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783...
Chermack (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: How to create, use, and assess scenarios: www.amazon.sg/Scenario-Planni...
Ramirez & Wilkinson (2014). Rethinking the 2 × 2 scenario method: Grid or frames?: www.sciencedirect.com/science...
Wright et al. (2013). Does the intuitive logics method - and its recent enhancements - produce “effective” scenarios?: www.sciencedirect.com/science...
Foresight games:
Bontoux et al. (2016). The JRC Scenario Exploration System - From Study to Serious Game: www.researchgate.net/publicat...
Bontoux et al. (2020). A Game for All Seasons: Lessons and Learnings from
the JRC’s Scenario Exploration System: www.researchgate.net/publicat...
Sweeney (2017). Game On: Foresight at Play with the United Nations: jfsdigital.org/articles-and-e...
Thing From the Future (game): circulardesigneurope.eu/oer/th....
Our Futures Game (game): www.nesta.org.uk/feature/our-...
Scenario Exploration System (game): ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/research/...
CREDITS FOR ICONS (The Noun Project):
Kiran Shastry, Marie Van den Broeck, Wilson, Joseph, Sumit, Saengthong, Adrien Coquet, Arthur Shlain, HeadsOfBirds, Gregor Cresnar, haley hill, ilCactusBlu, Nayeli zimmermann, Flatart, Vectorstall, Creative Stall, Bohdan Burmich, Jakub Caja, Round Pixel, Lance Hancock, iconesia, Jaime Serra, Postcat Studio, gilbert bages

[@ouidajoicooper-rodriguez6282]

I recently completed Foresight Essentials with the Institute for the Future (IFTF). As a fairly new Strategic Foresight Practitioner, I appreciate this video, and actually ALL your videos. They are concise, yet rich and informative. I appreciate your profound expertise, as well as your personal opinions, insights, and casual presentation style. You are outstanding!

[@AlexFergnani]

Many thanks for your comments and I'm glad you are enjoying the content Ouida! more videos will follow!

[@dairy_guru]

Very nice and simple way to teach

[@raphaelmeillat8527]

Very clear presentation. Concise, yet detailed enough. Well done!

[@viidare]

Super helpful, thank you!

[@WagesOfDestruction]

I would like more explanation on Archetypes. I have used 2x2 for many years, I like it, I find it fast, easy to follow, and quick to use. The problem, I feel is that it does not take into account two scenarios business as usual and collapse

[@johannrecordon129]

That was truly an excellent, detailed and clear video! I have learned the 2x2 method with a GBN veteran and I found it to be really powerful for what we were doing (the future of sustainable 3D printing, back in 2013). Thank you for this excellent content!

[@TSNour]

Thanks for your video! I share your strong opinion about the Shell method completely. There is almost no way that an organisation will dedicate de time and financial resources to go through an exercise that is so open ended. I even doubt many would have the people able to pull this off. Yet, it seems to me that it would be the one method who challenges people's assumptions the most and therefore would create more individual and corporate knowledge in the long run.

[@alexfloate2420]

Excellent video. Your passion for the subject is inspiring!

[@shodapad07]

Thank you for your nice presentation. I learnt a lot.

[@vandersijp]

Very informative. Thank you for your hard work!

[@dataluchs1288]

awesome content, nice explanation. thanks a lot man, subbed

[@dshad9794]

Thank you. This was well explained

[@booishoois309]

Thanks buddy your videos rock!

[@AlexFergnani]

Glad you like them!

[@ticofuentes4449]

Hi Alex! I have a question on the the 2x2 matrix method. In your example drivers of change have a direction. Development of AI , increase in computing capacity and decrease of its cost. This cluster, that will become a factor ( let's call it Digital technologies), is pointing to evolve positively. Therefore, why do we also mind the possibility of digital technologies to evolve negatively? The signals are showing it will be otherwise. Thanks and congrats on the video!

[@AlexFergnani]

great qn Tico! the answer to which speaks of the very reasons why we do futures and foresight instead of just looking at trends: We need to take into account driving forces in a complex system that is the real world, which includes barriers to change. These barriers to change can slow down or at times impede the driving forces from going on along the current direction. Moreover, if we project the current direction of the forces into the future, we will be surprised by black swans and wildcards. Jim Dator says "any meaningful statement abt the future should appear to be ridiculous", that's because the future is very different from the present. If you look at the current direction, you are basically projecting the present into the future. That is very unlikely to be the future that will actually occur. I suggest you read this article to dig deeper into this issue: medium.com/ux-in-plain-english/unpack-the-contest-for-the-future-with-the-futures-triangle-2-0-c0b904602347