A forecast for the 21st century: George Friedman. ANU, May09

George Friedman offers a forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.
Drawing on history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years, Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era - with changes in store, including:
- The US-Jihadist war will conclude - replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
- China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
- A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
- Technology will focus on space - both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.
George Friedman is the founder and chief intelligence officer of STRATFOR, which analyses and forecasts trends in world affairs. He is an internationally recognised expert in security and intelligence issues. He is also the author of several books, including The Future of War. The Next 100 Years will be released in March 2009, and George will be touring in May 2009. He has been invited as a guest to the 2009 Sydney Writers' Festival.
This lecture is part of the Toyota-ANU Public Lecture Series 2009. Presented by Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, the Department of International Relations and the ANU International Relations Society.

[@09smitel]

people need to remember that Friedman is not saying that these things will happen; all he is saying that is if historical patterns continue as they have, these are the events that will most likely happen.

[@boresightlock]

George Friedman is awesome! Somehow, he reminds me of a cross between George Bush Jr and Robin Williams.

[@kentucy9999]

I read The Next Decade which I thought was brilliant. Of course everything he foresees isn't going to come true exactly as he foresees it but his reasoning is based in rational and coherent thought and not any emotionalism. The United States was and remains by far the strongest country on the planet and likely will remain so for the future. There are many reasons for this including our dominant military, complete control of the sea lanes and because of our "physical" isolation also.

[@MrMichaelwolsen]

good observation Boresignflock

[@KarlMartell732]

His mimic reminds me on GW Bush.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

AWESOME, I read the book...................

[@GunsNRosesbitches]

I disagree. Turkey is the most advanced muslim country in the world and it is the only secular muslim country I know of. Other than that, it has the largest and most advanced economy of any muslim country, sits at the crossroads between Europe and Asia, and has a military more powerful than anyone in its region. Turkey is without a doubt already a power and in a position to assume an influential role in the region.

[@YNot1989]

He's just a LOT smarter.

[@matThaHatter]

@LCTesla OK, I apologize. I thought I'd heard enough to answer you, but I hadn't reached the important bit. Again, I THINK the answer is that although China makes and sells tons of stuff, they BUY MOST OF THE MATERIALS, & SELL MOST OF THE PRODUCTS to the US, Australia, UK, etc. If we simply stop buying & selling w/them, we can bring their economy to a halt. Hope that helps.

[@chefawkes]

isn't this the guy who predicted a U.S japan war in 1991? can't take him too seriously.

[@FXThug]

Republic of Wal mart lol.

[@AdstarAPAD]

Ummm 40 nuclear warheads delivered by ICBM's would just about finish Japan off in an hour.

[@Turkiyey]

Its at least not without merrit

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

Todays drones in Afghanistan and Iraq,will shape the world of tomorrow in homes and in factories through civilian applications in the years ahead..

[@Ollie9402]

He doesn't take into account any of France's assets. It's population growth is by far the highest in Europe (not much lower than Turkey's). I don't understand why he says the French "certainly can't take on the Turkish military, only the British might", since French and British military spending is equal. I would predict France will at least take over Germany's place in the EU's driver's seat.

[@tayf85]

France has more than double Turkey's spending power but they have a lot of catching up to do. Turkey: ---------- Fit for service: 35,005,326 Active Military: 612,900 Active Reserve: 429,000 Total Land Weapons: 69,774 Tanks: 4,246 APCs / IFVs: 6,592 Total Aircraft: 1,940 Total Navy Ships: 265 France: ---------- Fit for Service: 23,747,168 Active Military: 362,485 Active Reserve: 419,000 Total Land Weapons: 10,621 Tanks: 406 APCs / IFVs: 8,468 Total Aircraft: 1,757 Total Navy Ships: 289

[@SkullKing11841]

@KarlMartell732 Yeah there both from Texas haha

[@Crackhouts]

See what he did? Osama is unsophisticated. I like it.

[@LCTesla]

what i don't get is how he first claims that the cost of labor is going to skyrocket and then dismisses China, of all places, as a major candidate for being a superpower. wtf?