The Next Decade: Where We've Been...and Where We're Going

The challenge of the next decade is not American power, says George Friedman. It is the preservation of the republic through a management of the international system that faces the fact that, intended or not, we're an empire. So long as we refuse to face that, we can't be effective.
This talk took place on January 26, 2011.

[@thevapezoo7187]

George Friedman gives amazing lectures, super intriguing.

[@Tagnar]

Great talk, looking back at what he said in 2011 and how it relates to what actually unfolded, it's easy to say that Friedman knows what he's talking about.

[@haristapianus6446]

oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[@haristapianus6446]

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[@haristapianus6446]

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[@haristapianus6446]

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[@frederikhansen22]

Incredible ....Friedman was spot on in 2011 now looking back eight years later in August 2019.

[@jon9428]

Can you tell me what he was right about?

[@frederikhansen22]

@@jon9428 What's happening now concerning China, Iran and the Middle East was exactly described .

[@jon9428]

@@frederikhansen22 ...but like specifically what?

[@thomasdonovan3580]

Try turning the sound off and the captions on, reading what George says helped me retain more of the lecture, this is his best work by the way.

[@JackSmith-pp9kv]

Fascinating talk

[@tomastobias7061]

Inordinacy is the hallmark of these people.

[@Stupid9808]

Giving the comments below, his warning of being 'personal' seems to be accurate.

[@kevinwilliams3694]

7 years later, his predictions seem to be reasonable. As predictions go I'm impressed.

[@pfeilspitze]

10 years! -- note the date in the opening title.

[@charlemagne996]

18:07 I believe it was 9 AD

[@mauricerenoux5631]

M.Friedman never makes any references to France.Does that mean this country is now irrelevant?

[@barahng]

56:03 the look on this guys face

[@tylerwerner291]

Oh god, thank you from two years later. Gave me a good laugh.

[@TheSchev]

Excellent presentation and excellent audience. I would like everyone to consider moving the border with Mexico 200 miles South, establishing a free trade zone, eliminating the cartels by using our military and establishing an alliance with Mexico that will benefit both countries in a sustainable and ever improving manner. In most of the Western US Mexicans are seen as hard workers who have strong family values. We have known them for a long time. Please Comment.

[@SeattlePioneer]

We don't need to invade Mexico.... again. They are being great partners these days and cooperating with the United States, when we can decide what we want. Move the border 200 miles south and you merely move the cartels 200 miles south. Today Biden and the American government are working hand in glove with the human traffickers to smuggle illegal aliens into the United States and disburse them throughout the country. We keep the costs of human trafficing down by doing the work of the smugglers north of the border so they needn't do the work themselves.

[@Nonamearisto]

So... with great power comes great responsibility?

[@donaldclifford5763]

+Nonamearisto Responsibility that conflicts with Republicanism. Pat Buchanan wrote a book titled: "A Republic, Not an Empire". The main theme of the book was, as the title infers, that we should avoid being an empire. The fact is the US is an unintentional empire. And Further, we have no choice in the matter. Destiny has bestowed this honor on us.

[@barahng]

Yayrwe You don't get it and let me give you just one example. If we had no naval presence in the ME, Iran would mine or blockade the Strait of Hormuz, and eventually invade Egypt to take control of the Suez, or just infiltrate and sabotage it. Between those two routes passes half of the planet's trade. Iran would be able to crash the world economy at will. They have in fact tried to do it before, bothing mining and a traditional blockade. Another is China. If we went full isolationist and pulled out of the Pacific, its only a matter of time before Japan and China are in total war over China expanding its territorial waters by building artificial islands. Japan could have nukes within a year if the US didn't impose a prohibition on them. Now, I think Japan is responsible enough to have nukes, much more so than France, but you can see how quickly the world devolves into chaos without the US just protecting international shipping lanes, let alone full isolationism. North Korea would invade the South in a heartbeat without the threat of retaliation from the US military, that's another big one. Russia would be able to annex half of Europe with no US presence. Russian natural resources + German industry and expertise is THE nightmare scenario. The main "front" of the Cold War was preventing Germany from unifying under Soviet control for this reason. I'm anti interventionist myself, but I think ive demonstrated what kind of "rock and a hard place" situation we're in. IMO the best route seems to be striking a pragmatic and judicious balance between isolation and intervention. I think that's what Friedman's book here is getting at.

[@horus4862]

We should clone this guy, hes an absolute legend

[@crinihendrix1350]

He strangely has some same mannerisms as George W Bush..

[@barahng]

Well they're both from Texas and have Hungarian ancestry. Probably distantly related.

[@shanejones1145]

The United States won't survive the 21st Century as an intact nation. The only thing keeping the U.S from splitting up into 3 or 4 seperate Republics is Federal Matching funds and the dependency of about half of the population on the Welfare State. My prediction is that by 2030 the various regions will began reclaiming more and more autonomy until they start seeking full fledged independence. I live in rural west Louisiana... 25 miles from Texas... and have about as much in common with the people of California or Massachusetts as I do with your average European, Canadian or Australian. polite and friendly but still different.

[@murraysauerbrei6757]

Music Super Bowl

[@NoName-hd1jb]

5:00

[@TheDynamicmarket]

you think that the only possibility is to have the position of strength or no power at all. sorry but you have to negotiate on equal terms. that will be the only way forward. TINA

[@donaldclifford5763]

This first questioner, obviously opinionated, infers some power mad US that won the Spanish American War. The truth is we liberated former Spanish colonies and help them establish self government. For strategic reasons, we installed the naval base at Guantanamo Bay to protect shipping through the Panama Canal. We established a naval base at Subic Bay to protect the China Trade and enforce the Open Door policy. We temporarily occupied the Philipines after Britain told us that if we didn't they would, in order to keep the Germans from taking it.

[@SeattlePioneer]

So it's just a coincidence that we took Hawaii, Guam, the Philippines and Puerto Rico? And Theodore Roosevelt was busy charging up San Juan Hill at the time. I don't think he was imagining himself President and digging the Panama Canal at the time.

[@donaldclifford5763]

@@SeattlePioneer Learn history.Hawaii wasn't part of the Spanish Empire. Puerto Rico has passed multiple referenda to keep its commonwealth status. Guam has a tiny local population, outnumbered by US service personel. And the Philipines was stood up by agreement, to enable them to stave off European colonialism. And yes, Guantanamo was specifically manned with the planned Panama Canal in mind. For further reading, consult Google.

[@SeattlePioneer]

@@donaldclifford5763 I never said Hawaii was a part of the Spanish empire. But Hawaii, along with the Philippines, Guam and Puerto Rico marked the beginning of the United States as a world empire, which continues to this day. Cuba marked the beginning of American led "regime change" along with the Philippines, where we led the rather brutal military campaign of repression necessary to establish political dominance and control by the United States. Kicking out the Spanish didn't accomplish that purpose, much to out surprise. Expansion of American world empire began with the Declaration of Independence and has been going on every since. Today, the American world empire is by far the biggest ever seen in world history, often to the benefit of the people in it and often to the world as a whole. But let us not kid ourselves that it's not an empire and that we have often crushed opposition to our power when we could manage to do so.

[@donaldclifford5763]

@@SeattlePioneer It's called manifest destiny.

[@SeattlePioneer]

@@donaldclifford5763 Heh, heh! Manifest destiny was an ambitious agenda in the 1840s when it referred to the expansion of the United States across the North American continent. But even those pie in the sky visionaries could scarcely imagine the United States as leading a world empire consisting of most of the world! Not the Mongols nor even the Brits did that. I would argue that China and Russia are part of that American world empire however restive they may be about it. I would suggest that Iran and North Korea are perhaps outside the American world empire, but even at that Iran cringes to the dollar and tr That result has been truly remarkable.

[@davidrapalyea7727]

The only threat to the union is Californila is effectively secceding. I say CALEXT asap.

[@SeattlePioneer]

Perhaps the next Republican President could return California to Mexico?

[@spacecatboy2962]

if iran closed anything they would last about 5 minutes, so its not a big threat

[@SeattlePioneer]

I suspect the the Navy of India could re open the Straights of Hormuz, perhaps by itself or as part of an international naval force including Japan and even China. The United States Navy could stay home. The entire world would come down on Iran should it close the Straight of Hormuz.

[@kenpachiwarlord2258]

I am bit disappointed he never mentions Poland as the most powerful state in Europe. Polish-Lithuanian Union reached from the Baltic to the Black Sea occupying 1 mln square kilometres. Poland has been the dominant power in Europe for 4 centuries. The greatest battles in Middleages have been won by Poland. Yet everyone speaks of weak Poland. Well what can you do if you face simultaneous invasion from east, west and south. Which State could survive this?

[@geoeconomics3067]

Europe without Russia is big fragile fry stop watching TV and get on JOHN HALFORD MACKINDER NICHOLAS J SPYKMAN learn the base of everything

[@SeattlePioneer]

Of course you can recall that Poland invaded the Soviet Union in 1922 and got most of the way to Moscow before the Red Army got organized, kicked them out and invaded Poland in turn. Poland will be a powerful state again if the United States arms and finances them. Which we are doing. I think that the aim of the United States is to have Poland as the power state to check westward expansion of Russia with Ukraine as a buffer state between Russia and Europe. That would be a very good result for Europe and the United States if we can make it happen. What do you think about that as a possibility?

[@andriyandriychuk]

Они не потеряют гегемонию, потому что борьба только началась. Запад победит. Украина - это Запад. Мы не собираемся ложится под Россию или Китай

[@BlazzinFrost]

he has some big ears XD

[@edwardmoczydlowski3666]

Rome is burning, and Nero 's fiddle lectures on.

[@carlroberts4963]

Free wiii fr Rom h

[@iri8973]

Is it mortal to discuss the way he thinks need to kill millions children, women, oldest...for his sick prediction of the world should look like

[@achimkoenig]

is

[@kellogsnotavailable]

associating the words 'morality' and 'Churchill' only disqualifies the speech giver.

[@donaldclifford5763]

+kellogsnotavailable Your comment disqualifies you as a commentator.

[@matthewhall1597]

I know. Leading a global campaign to defeat Hitler certainly was immoral.

[@adtiamzon3663]

Selfish view of the world . 🤔

[@chris4141]

he is wrong about germany. they have no labour shortage bec so manny young greek and spanish people are imigrating due to the crisis there. he is wrong about most of the things.

[@remkow5650]

+chris 날도마뱀 Crisis maintained by Germany to stabilise banking system in Germany , and gain in cheap labour . Yeah Germany isn't gold country . Cheeky explorers of other nations .

[@geoeconomics3067]

95.000 Croats immigrated to Germany in 2018

[@fakhrerazinikkhah3138]

I listened to this know it all guy and he puked bunch of lies for the audience that has plenty of free time and money . I also read all the comments and 90% or more thought that this guy should be in a mental hospital . You guys are great observers, kudos to all of you, the 90 percenters .

[@junzhang2087]

Russia is the last European county that dominated European continent including your home country Hungary. Now is EU.