A New Era for Ethiopia and Somalia?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

At the start of 2024, there was jubilation in Somaliland over an agreement that looked likely to open the way for Ethiopian recognition. That is now in tatters. But was it ever a serious option? It always seemed that Ethiopia was less committed to recognition than Somaliland believed. More broadly, how do people in Ethiopia and Somalia regard this latest development? Will it lead to a historic agreement? Or will the talks go nowhere? Let me know your thoughts and comments below.

[@abdiosman376]

The reason one clan enclave separatists Somaliland will fail is because of SSC-Khaatumo State in northern Somalia. You should make an episode about SSC-Khaatumo. Maybe you will understand the power dynamics in the horn. Good luck

[@Alankiika]

I'm not from Khatumo state but Somali you have pinpointed very well if 1/2 of the Dir tribe ( southern Dir tribe are not included )can make a country how many countries will exist in Somalia and Africa in general

[@Hkaffi]

@JamesKerLindsay Somalia doesn't any obligation to give Ethiopia sea access Ethiopia made it self landlocked. You western countries already divided historical lands of the Somali people to Ethiopia and kenya and we will not accept any further division. If Ethiopia wants to invest our ports and import goods from them they are welcome but never a military base or naval base to somali coastal areas.

[@Stephen-gi1rx]

I notice you don't mention what this means for the Ethiopian agreement with Somaliland. Is that agreement now off or does Ethiopia's agreement with Somalia mean that that agreement is still on but now Somalia rather than Somaliland will control that new port?

[@joetigo2928]

@@JamesKerLindsay with the new developments in the red sea in relation to the corridor being unstable because of Houhtis of Yemen, US and UK might go for recognizing Somaliland. If Trump made this happen as it is being rumored, this would probably be a golden opportunity missed by Ethiopia. It seems Ethiopia is in a dilemma, as it needs access to the sea, but doesn't want to offend either side. Somalia and Somaliland have unresolved issue that makes the equation complex.

[@Halgame99]

I love how you cover the Horn of Africa! Thank You Prof James

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. It is such a fascinating region. One of the best things about doing the channel has been learning about the area.

[@Hkaffi]

​@JamesKerLindsay you're biased towards Ethiopia it seems.

[@Robespierre-lI]

I am glad some people leave thankful and pleasant messages for Dr Ker Lindsey. His channel has been repeatedly mobbed by angry and incredibly rude nationalists and their propaganda operations lately. I lost my temper with them recently and had to restrain myself. I just hate seeing someone throw their hard work and genuine expertise into public k education videos, only to be insulted by mobs of angry idiots.

[@Robespierre-lI]

​@@Hkaffiok look. They've showing up already.

[@mrniceguy7168]

What does it even mean to make an agreement with the Somali government? Do they have any authority outside of Mogadishu?

[@mohamedabdukadir3271]

You must be joking

[@zuesadam7143]

@@mrniceguy7168 No they don't They can't even control the Jubbaland region in the Kismayo area, Somalia is a country only on paper

[@blackwatertv7018]

….. where do you think Somaliland actually is

[@keifer7813]

As a person who's been rooting for Somalia, I'm starting to see how ridiculous it all is. I mean how can you claim territory you have zero control over lmao. Maybe Somaliland were right all along - although they need to stop their aggression and atrocities against those who refuse to join them

[@mohamedali2858]

The tension between Somalia and Ethiopia is not limited to the issue of "access to the sea," but is driven by deep historical, religious, and strategic factors rooted in the existence of a fault line between Ethiopia, with its highlands and Christian majority, and Somalia, with its vast plains and Muslim population. Additionally, there is a growing Somali perception that Addis Ababa is pursuing a plan to fragment Somalia with the aim of seizing its sovereignty, territory, and resources, which is reinforced by Ethiopia's control over the western Somali region of Ogaden. While Turkey understands the depth of the crisis between the two countries, it will work to contain it and prevent it from escalating to the level of war. A fundamental solution requires the cancellation of the Ethiopian memorandum of understanding with Somaliland and coordination with Mogadishu to use any Somali ports solely for commercial purposes; without this, the crisis between the two countries will resurface later.

[@keifer7813]

2:39 Correction: Italy conquered Ethiopia in 1936 and occupied it for 5 years. There is debate on whether to call it colonisation but it was undoubtedly conquered

[@tomk5529]

Germany conquered france in1940 and occupied it for 4 years. So you call france colonized by Germany?

[@cabdiqadirismaciil7112]

Thank you Sir Prof james

[@FabledCity]

Simply given that the AU is headquartered in Addis, one can imagine that authorities in Hargeisa may have envisioned a possible domino effect of recognition across the continent.

[@paulstephen3257]

I think one critical thing people forget is the independence of Eritrea. Eritreas independence cut off Ethiopian access to the coast. Also, if Eritrea was able to declare independence because it was a separate colonial entity from what became Ethiopia, then many would argue somaliland has a strong case for independence given it had separate colonial boundaries from the rest of Somalia.

[@hyperbeast134]

Diffrence is Somaliland dont controll the territory they claim early 2023 a part of so called somaliland left since they got opressed by the gov in hargeisa. That territory todays is called scc khatumo en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khatumo_State

[@the0ne809]

he has made a few videos about this.

[@rarelife1]

It's not as simple as that. Otherwise it would have happend by now.

[@keifer7813]

​@@hyperbeast134 But didn't Khatumo state declare separation from Somalia too? Pretty sure something like that happened

[@rejvaik00]

That's a darn shame that the Taiwan of Africa is about to be removed from the map

[@tiredox3788]

I wonder how long this will last if Trump does recognize Somaliland.

[@mombasa7]

No Somalilander with a shred of dignity should place their trust in southerners. The entire concept of a “federal” government was a deliberate scheme to undermine Somaliland’s sovereignty. This was done by creating new states and then attempting to frame Somaliland as just another state among the Somali regions. If the government in Mogadishu were genuinely committed to unification with Somaliland, it should begin by abolishing all so-called "federal states" within its territory. Only then could meaningful negotiations take place between Somaliland and Somalia - not with a "federal" entity, but on equal terms.Somalilanders have been deceived before, but they will not be fooled again - recognition or not!

[@ZakariaQurbac]

I agree the federal system must go! It’s the cause of destruction in the country.

[@keifer7813]

What sovereignty? Somaliland had no sovereignty after unification. That's the whole point. You give up sovereignty when merging with other entities

[@tdallin1750]

Great video but you should have included Ethiopias enourmous influence in the south of Somalia. Regional leaders there, in areas such as in Gedo, South West State, and Jubaland have publically exclaimed support for Ethiopia over Egypt in direct opposition the federal government. Ethiopians have been involved with the security of these regions working alongside these regional leaders, sometimes operating without the permission of the central government and apart from ATMIS. This is factor that likely pressured Somalias president to resolve things diplomatically before Egyptians arrived where swathes of the country would have been hostile to them! If you'd like sources I can provide them

[@wzupppp]

This rapprochement will be short lived, and in my opinion not genuine on Ethiopia's side. Somaliland's cause is gaining serious momentum and is expexted to gain international recognition soon. I dont think Ethiopia will put its bet on Somalia, a divided country where most of its territory is controlled by al shabab. Furthermore, the new deal between Somalia and Ethiopia has no foundation as Mogadishu doesnt control all the land, and there is no infrastructure that links Addis to the indian ocean.

[@muratalkiner7791]

How did Ethiopia lost all access to sea via Eritrea, surely they should have negotiated access sea, giving Eritrea all the coastal area and making the huge country like Ethiopia landlocked country shocking agreement

[@ftsunion8365]

@@muratalkiner7791 i explain to you in Easy way. During mengistu Haile Mariam regime eritrea fought with TPLF (Tigray people libeation front) to kick out the regime. They won and the TPLF became ruling party in ethiopia and in sign of gratitude they recognized Eritrea as indipendent. They were a party based on ethnic proud of Tigray region and not nationalist ethiopian proud so They didnt give sh1t about ethiopias access to Sea because they tought eritrea wouldve let ethiopia use its ports. In 1998 TPLF went to war against eritrea over a border dispute between Tigray region and Eritrea and After the war Eritrea closed its ports til today. So the reason Is that Tplf made ethiopia landlocked and made ethiopia have bad relationship with eritrea.

[@mildlydispleased3221]

Somaliland deserves international recognition. It currently has more legitimacy as an independent state than South Sudan, East Timor or Eritrea had at the time of their proclamations.

[@joshuawells835]

What do you make of recent speculation that Trump will recognize Somaliland, in part to annoy a certain Congressional Democrat and in part for strategic positions to continue to deal with the Houthis in Yemen?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. This is a potentially huge development. A true game changer. If anyone could do it, it would be Trump. But I think there would be a lot of disquiet over the move.

[@rarelife1]

Doesn't the US have military base in Djibouti?

[@joshuawells835]

@@rarelife1 Yes, but Somaliland is right across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen

[@rarelife1]

@@joshuawells835 So is Djibouti and the Houthis don't control the Gulf of Aden coast of Yemen only the Red Sea coast where the attacks are happening. Djibouti also has coast on the Red Sea, Somalia doesn't. I don't think Trump can use that justification. And the other one just sounds insane.

[@---id4dc]

@@JamesKerLindsay How will the world take it ?

[@tifonepacoz]

It would be great if you could express the same level of criticism and concern for Israel that you do for Turkey.

[@eren3390]

well he is a western person that has a personal hate against us it seems, i would ignore his videos. he doesn’t like to criticize „his“ people.

[@emrealn3786]

@@eren3390 spot on 👏!

[@lincolnlog5977]

Stop murdering Kurds lol

[@sebbvell3426]

I agree with Erdogan's decision to support the rebels in Syria but I don't agree with his so called peace negotiations between Ethiopia 🇪🇹 and Somalia 🇸🇴 that could set back Somaliland's independence.

[@prettitalented]

This is a good deal but Trump is about to upset this balance because reports say that he's going to recognize Somaliland. I wonder what will happen.

[@loworochi]

Two faced Abiy Ahmed and Erdogan. Somalia would be dumb to let any of this happen or slide

[@IdiouBah]

ALLAHU AKBAR ❤❤❤

[@FlamingBasketballClub]

2:25 Nice historical map of Africa 🌍

[@Libikuroi]

What a joke. 3 Leaders!! All of who are facing their own insurgencies and conflict in each of their countries putting on a show. This would mean more if they had their house in order before involving themself with more problems.

[@busterhymen-n5t]

Mr Lindsey you seem like an objective actor so I'll engage as such. 1. If somaliland got the las anood administration to leave puntland in 2007 how did somaliland control that area since 1991? They never controlled those eastern regions until 2007. Before that they were administered by puntland. But in 2007 Ali Khalif then president joined somaliland. My next point is the map you use isn't correct. Al Jazeera map showing lasanood regions as part of somalia is correct. Somaliland doesn't control lasanood since last year when they went to war

[@austinsmith8584]

Somaliland will be independent not just that it’s on the Project 25 agenda. Erdogan won’t have the resources to devote with Syria. As well the Russians are in Lybia, and resources are to thin. The Lira is already 35 to $1. And there is bipartisan support for sanctions due to the Kurds.

[@Abdi-zv6ex]

In my opinion, Ethiopia and Somalia can't find to live as peaceful neighbors as long as the Ogaden region couldn't decide their own political future. Ethiopia has ethnic problems and Somali has clan problems. These problems sometimes overlap and historical conflict comes to play. The other problem is Somaliland. While Somaliland was known for the British colonial territory, now it's a single Northern clan driven. Khatumo state is gone and Adel is matter of time before they sees opportunity to establish Adelstate administration same as Khatumo. Then you will have two cities with one and half provinces out of Somalia eighteen provinces asking for recognition. This is the reason why Khatumo state fought their way out of Somaliland and reclaimed their own administration under Somalia. Adding to the problems, Mr.Behi now lost the election, and signed a blind unworkable agreement with Ethiopia. That itself is waking up the Adel region bordering Djibouti who has grievances against unilateral breakaways from Somalia. Today Somalia and Ethiopia leaders are untruth worthy. Mr.Abiy will say one thing today and another for tomorrow. Also you have Mr.Hasan Sheikh who signs one agreement to another in contrast. The solution and peace for both nations is Ethiopia soldiers should be in Somalia for under any excuses.

[@GusWayne-u5h]

Ogaden need to fight for their own future, if they can't good luck. They're not helpless puppies, they're a 1/3 of ethiopia but i never see them try to do anything. We're not interested in them anymore.

[@kidanemariameyob8752]

I am surprised you presented the invasion of Somalia by the TPLF regime and their partners in crime the US in 2006 as a positive event. Somalia under the Islamic Courts was gradually returning to normality and peace and justice was promoted. The US saw this as a threat and used their client state Ethiopia to destroy this hope of peace and normalcy after 15 years of chaos. Actually Until the invasion there were NO Al Shabab terrorists in Somalia as this terrorist organisation was established as a resistance to this invasion. Also during this invasion thousands of civilians were killed and millions displaced. The mission of this invasion was to carry out a regime change and you know this so please don’t insult our intelligence. Also this invasion was not approved by the UNSC so it was an illegal war of aggression. After the invasion almost all of the leaders of the Islamic courts leaders were cherry picked to lead the puppet government The same client state of the TPLF regime was tasked with carrying out a regime change in Eritrea in May 1998 as instructed by the US but failed miserably. Finally why didn’t the US or the UK try to mediate between Ethiopia and Somalia before Turkey took the initiative?

[@GusWayne-u5h]

well said bro, these yt people are the dvl.

[@ikarade3274]

We (Somalis) never accept colonial borders. Great Somalia for ever.

[@zuesadam7143]

Literally "Old man yells at cloud" moment 😂

[@ZakariaQurbac]

Facts

[@reidhauke3389]

Abiy sure is a player. The question here is exactly what he's playing for. Somaliland was a good bet. Mogadishu is not.

[@husseinhandule]

somaliland was independent country before the fail state of somalia

[@GusWayne-u5h]

Puntland and Somaliland are not part of Somalia.

[@keifer7813]

Puntland basically separated temporarily lol. They're still willing to join back on certain conditions.

[@brianfoley4328]

Could Ethiopia and Somalia be having a new relationship, sure why not? But for how long? There ain't no way those two countries are going to "bury the hatchet" as we are so fond of saying here in the States. There is too much animosity, too much history between the two for them to ever have a normal diplomatic relationship. As much as we would like to all share a Coke-a-Cola at the border and be buddies, it just isn't going to happen. The best they can hope for or reasonably expect is a sort of detente, leave each other alone, respect each other's border and stay out of each other's business. Somehow I suspect various terrorist groups probably have some thoughts on the subject. In the Terrorist Handbook, Chapter III, it specifically states that destabilizing a neighboring government can help your movement, open alternative operating bases and allow your movement freedom of access across borders while increasing the recruiting pool for future terrorists. So, bad guys in Somalia would want Ethiopia at odds with Somalia and vice-a-versa. Unstable governments fighting Civil Wars or Terrorists or both are bad neighbors and less likely to successfully work out a deal to be better neighbors.

[@paramahansayogananda6719]

Hello Prof. Do you think Trump will recognise Somaliland?

[@HasanHanad-q2u]

Somalis in eithopian colony should get independent rather than so called somalia which is part of greater somalia and will remain part of it. Abiye is living in dream come reality.

[@Baby-os2bb]

If you are honest expose Amhara Genocide in Ethiopia by Abiy Ahmed Ali signiture.And also a current draught in Amhara region.Do you know 4 million people are hangry in Ethiopia?.

[@Omer1996E.C]

He did talk about that. Stop yapping

[@Alankiika]

There's no notion of Ethipianism It is high time that we separate from each other rather than working on Somali internal affairs. We the people of Tigray are committed to creating our own country The Republic of Tigray and never forget the crime committed against our people

[@Alankiika]

There's no notion of Ethipianism It is high time that we separate from each other rather than working on Somali internal affairs. We the people of Tigray are committed to creating our own country The Republic of Tigray and never forget the crime committed against our people

[@moeawale4891]

Prof James with all do respect, your are still beating around the bush when it comes to the current conflict issue between Somalia and Ethiopia. First, Ethiopian has long history of cultural and expansionist empire ambtions, where it has annexed many nations and nationalities in East Africa region. Among the victims are somalia Somalia themselves where a big chunk of their land, and with the big help of European colonialists, was incorperted into it in the mid 20the century. So resentment was always there and palpable. And even after Somalia became independent things didn't improve a bit. Second, Somali land enclave is not country nor noman's land but it is region which is part and parcel of Somalia sovreign territory. So you shouldn't be dwelling on any notion legitimacy as an existing country. So the name of norther separatist region of Somalia or whatever is aptly applicable in its current status. Because the only issue that there is certain clan among 5 others clans, who are attempting to illegally break away from mother Somalia. Third, as far as current tension between Somalia and Ethiopia is concerned, it is not evenan equal and inter-state legal contest issue but about a naked agression and one-side driven conflict, where Ethiopia is trying hard to wrestle over legit sovereign territory of Somalia by force and occupying it for military and for other strategic reasons. It is doing so throughvl bogus scheme some seperatist clan in that particular region to meddle Somalia's internal issues as an opportunity and squeeze into. Fourth, the latest agreement in Ankara between the two, it is going to the right direction but there is doubt about the commitment of the erratic Ethiopian leader. If past records is anything to go by, he is not trustworthy figure with anything. This is not over untill it is over.

[@Zapata-Cuahtemoc]

Trump said it would recognize Somaliland earlier this mo th

[@sebbvell3426]

Wait until Trump recognizes Somaliland

[@eren3390]

won‘t happen.

[@muktarawel]

what you need with their agreement? you are talking about Somalia colocalization but why you are talking about western colonizing the the African?

[@ozkanonalan3545]

Well done president Erdogan 💪🇹🇷

[@hassanmohamed4070]

First of all, as a Somali citizen, I am disappointed to say that Somaliland was betrayed. Secondly, the northern region of Somalia, also known as “Somaliland,” is and will always remain part of Somalia. The Ankara Accord, signed by the Somali President, involved diplomatic strategies that were soon undermined. This deal, influenced by Türkiye’s significant investments in both countries, may seem favorable to Türkiye but not to Somalia. Moreover, Somalia will never surrender even an inch of its territory to its enemies.

[@mustafahassan2555]

SOMALIYA DOES NOT CONTROL ITS OWN BORDERS, HOW CAN IT HAVE SOVEREIGNTY OVER ANYTHING????.EVEN NOW, 20K FOREIGN SOLDIERS HAVE BEEN PREPARED TO KEEP THE AFTER 2025!!!!!!.JUST BECAUSE YOU HATE SOMALILAND SUCCESS, YOU WANT THEM TO BURN LIKE THE SOUTH!!!!!

[@CalibashihanguleBashi-hg4sj]

Your nonsense analysis is not what is needed keep somalia out of rubbish

[@alaaaljarad3172]

Your Time Is Coming To An End Soon

[@princehassaniii530]

Recently🤔, I have came to the conclusion that every single conflicts, disputes and wars around the world seem to originate from the west. I dare you to Disprove me otherwise if you can! Go! More importantly, It is so insulting to witness homosapiens selective amnesias in their attempts to forget Somaliland’s history and fail to recall that our nation had gained independence from Britain (after nearly 80 years of colonialism) before (Italian) Somalia and numerous other countries across Africa, Asia and even in Europe gained their independences. Why is it so hard to fathom that Somaliland simply opted to exit a failed union with Somalia and reasserted their territorial boundaries. It is essential to consider why these double standards exist. 3🍉🍉🍉🍉🍉

[@fa_abdi3001]

Somaliland has to realise its best if they just be an iper indipendent region hot country. Somalia is the only place in Africa where you have the same language culture and religion across the entire country. Somaliland is been courted by other foreigners to keep the entire region unstable. It would be great if Somalia can be a true federal states that grants level of autonomy to every region and collaborate with Ethiopia and builds a border patrol. But Somali people are still too blind by tribalism to this day.

[@abdirahmaanmohamed1582]

Federalism is dangerous idea for Somalia 🇸🇴 and we don't want anything close to that

[@tiredox3788]

Is it? Because it sounds like a lot of problems between clans go back before colonization.

[@fa_abdi3001]

@ Federalism is actually good for a country so big. The constitution has to be very clear on set set the boundaries and who has the supremacy of law. We cannot have every Somali region treated the same as some like Putland and Somaliland have still hate for the capital. Federalism with 1 army and 1 Supreme Court should be better. It can appease the tribalism in the region too. I am not sure which other type of state Somalia could be in the future