Weak demand is forcing more home sellers to reduce their asking price

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Altos Research is the premier resource for real-time real estate data. We provide weekly market statistics, analysis and reporting for 99% of the zip codes in the U.S., helping real estate professionals, investors, financial institutions, and their clients make better-informed decisions.
Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research
A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
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Altos Research is now part of HW Media! Check out their channel at @HousingWire for more housing market insights.

[@RogerAmanda]

In investing, success requires more than just technical analysis - it takes discipline and emotional resilience. The “time in the market vs. timing the market” mindset has kept me grounded through the market’s ups and downs. Thanks to Todd Barden’s expert guidance and daily insights, along with my focus on learning, my portfolio has grown steadily. Here’s to continued progress!

[@RogerAmanda]

HE’S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS APPS WITH HIS NAME.

[@RogerAmanda]

Toddbarden

[@HelenJesse-k3t]

He's really good in studying the market and making a strategy and i am learning so much from hım already...

[@squatfreak1184]

20-30% in reductions is where it needs to go. Another 18 months or so is what it should take until buyers get interested since seller pricing is disillusioned.

[@thehighway3695]

Haha you have no idea what your asking for.

[@squatfreak1184]

lol I take it you’re a realtor then? Fake equity will soon be disappearing.

[@toinengwyn3935]

@@thehighway3695 Why? A return to the means is a normal part of economics.

[@ebutuoy5088]

no

[@nonexistent5030]

Assuming lower rates due to economic weakness amidst panic leads to higher prices is so full of DoubleThink. I commend you. Well equipped to live in the world of 1984.

[@JohnDoep]

Seriously though . Lots of mental gymnastics going on here.

[@PaulWolf-t2h]

Realtors are still telling people that mortgage rates are going to drop to 5%. Too many people are waiting for something that's not going to happen.

[@JeffKerzman]

I'm not - - we are at above 7% and here to stay -

[@scottpratt6599]

no we're not.

[@michelleschwinghammer4725]

Great stuff, thank you Mike!

[@MrMetalbandit]

One thing people fail to realize with interest rates being cut. If they are being cut, that means the economy needs a boost. So if rate cuts occur, the average family is struggling already and won’t be able to afford said house in a “bull” market. We are in a damned if you do, damned if you don’t environment.

[@toinengwyn3935]

I don't understand what you are saying. A "bull" real estate market rarely occurs in the middle of a struggling economy -- especially if liquidity in the real economy is weak.

[@MrMetalbandit]

@@toinengwyn3935 The misconception/selling point in Real estate is that you can refinance later or buy now before rate cuts happen insinuating that rate cuts will cause a bull market in real estate. When in reality rate cuts only occur when the economy is struggling and unemployment is high.

[@toinengwyn3935]

@ Agreed. The financial world will flee to the safety of bonds and cause mortgage rates to fall (not Fed rate cuts) as it prices in weaker economic activity and lower inflation. And despite lower rates, banks will restrict lending while potential buyers will be too scared to borrow.

[@MrMetalbandit]

@@toinengwyn3935 Yup. I’ve been accumulating TLT on every dip. Good 30-day yield and when the FED eventually starts QE, that’s my exit liquidity. Stocks, luxury, real estate, most assets are overvalued except bonds.

[@giniaa2707]

Love your videos, Mike. However, wish you were able to do a video on the northeast, specifically, New York State, as that is where I have been searching for over 4 years, and the situation here doesn't seem to match your reports for the bulk of the country.

[@Joe-xx5to]

The median listing price for a home in the LA Metro has increased by $105k in the past two weeks. Yes, that is not a typo.

[@peterbedford2610]

Not where I'm searching

[@hankduncan2665]

Hi all - does Altos look at the mix or just general median price? Wouldnt that stat be deceiving if a higher percentage of sales than usual were occuring at the higher price points?

[@damp_squid]

That's the purpose of the median instead of the average. The median handles outliers much better than just an arithmetic mean

[@hankduncan2665]

@damp_squid I get that, but if the mix is more weighted towards the higher end, it will increase the mean too, no?

[@nitroneonicman]

​@@damp_squidthe median can still be strongly biased to one side of the data range

[@damp_squid]

@ Imagine you have 9 numbers. All of them are equal to 1. Add a 10th number equal to 1 billion. Your median of the numbers doesn't change. Your average goes from 1 to 500 million. The leverage of each number is equal when using a median That's the point I was trying to make. House price distributions are strongly skewed to the upside. So you have to use the median, a geometric mean, or a logarithmic correction.

[@movetochattanooga]

@@hankduncan2665 Yes. A not insignificant weakness of the median is that it is especially sensitive to higher volume at either the higher or lower end of the price scale.

[@5harkbyte460]

We must pay attention to the regional/market distribution of this data; it's hard to discern trends en masse with absolute certainty without reading between the lines of the data on a market by market basis. Thanks for the content!

[@LockedUpLarry]

The available data is months old. The lag effect!

[@damp_squid]

Interesting take on chaos -> yields down I would have thought the opposite, uncertainty (especially around inflation) causing a flight to safety I don't think cuts to federal spending will move the needle on treasury supply and yields. Entitlement spending can't be touched and is a majority of spending. IF they cut entitlement spending, I'd see more inventory come on the market anyway from older generations liquidating RE holdings I think the federal govt employee firings could cause some changes in the market supply. Lots of people released into the job market and may need to sell homes - considering the govt is the biggest employer Excited to see inventory return to "normal". Systems have to return to steady state. We're not there yet

[@5harkbyte460]

If the 'economy' tanks, I doubt there will be much of an appetite (much less qualified buyers) to take on debt. He can be right about bond yields, but I'd wager we're more likely to see excess selling in such a scenario vs a frenzied demand that'd increase prices at a significant clip.

[@lionheart93]

cuts will happen and are happening..

[@movetochattanooga]

Great job, Mike.

[@lionheart93]

interests rates must come down for a bull real estate market.

[@wespennington941]

There will never be inventory. There will never be foreclosures again. Unemployment will never go up. High insurance and property taxes are a non issue. Nothing to see here folks.

[@FilipeSilva1]

ok.

[@damp_squid]

An absolutionist I see

[@nonexistent5030]

Sounds like a party.

[@FilipeSilva1]

here we go.

[@professorprofessorson8795]

Crash happening

[@user-zk6fc3dw9e]

Where? How much?

[@codyedwards9659]

What is your basis for the alleged crash? So far nobody has been able to produce any data to suggest a crash is happening. Nobody has been able to produce data to suggest a crash will happen. I am very curious what data you are looking at.

[@ronno1202]

@@codyedwards9659 inventory tripled in 3 years and isn't slowing down. the crash will happen as soon as sellers decide to actually find the price at which their homes will sell

[@toinengwyn3935]

@@codyedwards9659 Sales are at near 30 year lows. Inventory rising in many markets. Prices in multiple markets are falling. What mass consumer product for which sales had fallen so precipitously did not subsequently experience severe price reductions? Sales is a leading indicator. Price is a lagging indicator.

[@ebutuoy5088]

lol i think your brain is crashing

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I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $200k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure. So I really don't blame people who panic.

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