America is in Decline and We Should Worry | Niall Ferguson

In this clip Niall unpacks the chronic fiscal issues in the US and its impact on geopolitical security.
Niall Ferguson, MA, D.Phil., is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior fellow of the Centre for European Studies, Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History.
He is the author of fifteen books, most recently The Square and the Tower. His previous book, Kissinger, 1923-1968: The Idealist, won the Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Prize. He is also an award-winning filmmaker, having won an international Emmy for his PBS series The Ascent of Money.
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See the full interview here: • Niall Ferguson | What ...
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Niall's website: www.niallferguson.com
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[@Rayseagate]

the U.S. has spent trillions of dollars on fruitless wars in the Middle East and has nothing to show for, whereas China has been investing heavily in education, infrastructure, technology and research. Unfortunately, the U.S. has not learned any lesson and still on the same path of wars, yet again. Some of the reasons the Roman empire collapsed are never ending wars and over extension. Does it sound familiar?

[@seppohannunen7020]

US ,what to you do Wrong??? ☝⚠️⚠️⚠️

[@ppen8359]

Middle East is much less threatening today. No one talks about Al-Qaida. US wars achieved a lot. Iraq is one thing Israel does not have to worry about. Syria is tamed as well. A lot depends how you view things. American wars have provided stability to the world and kept the demand high. If US withdraws then that stability goes away and the world demand falls, which in turn lowers standard of living all over the world including the US.

[@ftd7435]

​@ppen8359 America provide stability? Remember US ILLEGALLY invaded Iraq for the second time with UK despite United Nation's objections? US accused Iraq of having weapons of mass destruction. 20 years and 4 US Presidents later ( Bush Jr, Obama, Trump and Biden) ... no weapons of mass destruction were found but all Iraqi oil fields became American's. You call that stability? Thatz robbery!

[@sirsurnamethefirstofhisnam7986]

Roman Empire wouldn’t have existed at all without constant wars that’s how empires form at all

[@kltamilgamer1367]

​@@ppen8359😂 😂 😂 Lol...first of all US itself Unstable within Itself..

[@konagirl805]

Maybe we’re just in decline but I’d say we are actually in total cultural and economic collapse.

[@yaoliang1580]

Even worse is the moral collapse

[@Commievn]

Fun fact, the deadliest war in American history isn't WW1 or WW2 or Vietnam War. It was the Civil War.

[@urimtefiki226]

@@yaoliang1580 you are right

[@realazduffman]

I keep telling people this. We could have an hours long bar chat about it!

[@jimg1056]

Moral too

[@terencetong4896]

A student from United States came to Hong Kong for exchange. I told her that our health care is free, our university fee is partially subsidized, and we only pay 15 percent max for tax. She said how is this possible ? I said we don't spend money on wars

[@australianpatriot]

shut up

[@itsoktobehappy461]

It makes me angry that the USA has to constantly dip into our own pockets to pick up the lack of military spending by other countries. However, we are a selfless nation and we will always take care of other countries less fortunate.

[@drunkdriver]

So how's hong Kong doing these days with their zero military spending? Must be swimming in money 😂😂😂

[@theemirofjaffa2266]

​@@drunkdriver china at the doorstep

[@robertdominiktkanka3541]

They don't spend money on ped... rings in power 🤑

[@Drchainsaw77]

There's no chance that debt levels like this can be called "misguided." This is either stupidity on a galactic scale or the destruction is 100% deliberate and purposeful.

[@buravan1512]

The collapse started on August 15th 1971... It was a Sunday.

[@PS987654321PS]

It’s deliberate. And it’s all about climate change.

[@t-bone3657]

There are no coincidences at this level. This has all been planned for many years. Rigged elections have dire consequences 😮

[@alanjenkins1508]

It is deliberate. It started with Reaganomics.

[@majorpuckhead2481]

The MMT economists will argue that you have completely misinterpreted what government debt really means. Governments do not manage budgets like people manage their household budgets bc governments can take on debt as a form of investment in society. The alternative to government debt is not a balanced budget, it’s private debt. So governments invest in critical development that is simply not profitable for the private sector but necessary and perhaps risky, like infrastructure or research and development.

[@Lolpopi8547]

"A weak authoritarian regime is more likely to lash out than one that feels confident" Exactly! This is why the US Empire has been starting non stop wars all around the war in the last decade.

[@jozephvoorheez2760]

Hmm.. interesting! What wars has the US started in the last 10 years? Please enlighten me with facts and not regurgitated anti-USA propaganda 🤔

[@trfgshdtg4577]

@@jozephvoorheez2760 Syria

[@abubakarabdulmalik7383]

The west is always presenting itself as a democracy and every other form of government as authoritarian even if it is delivering far more dividends to the people than the so-called democracy.The idea of freedom and democracy is the biggest scam of the western world.They say it but they don't believe it except for themselves.All they care about is permanent interest and not democracy or freedom as we have seen them impose their will all over the world.

[@shovedhead]

Much longer than that.

[@seanlevison6361]

Not to mention how social media is turning a once great nation into a bunch of sock puppets.

[@MissAwa515]

It's funny to see him saying worrying China "will lash out" when it turns weak, and totally ignores the US IS lashing out hard because it IS declining in every way.

[@thelonegerman2314]

America has Already Collapsed Economically Years ago, Every Since the 1970s , But America Compensate for it's Degenerate State by Exporting Wars , Inflation, Death, Propaganda and DeMockracy to Exploit Other Countries Natural Resources So a Few privileged Entitled.Class.Can live Lavishly Examples are the Billionaire Boom under "Reaganomics" When Poverty was Rampant for Millions in America Other Tools America uses are the Petrodollar, Sanctions, NGOs to Maintain.its Grip on Perceived US power and Exceptionalism, But these US Neocolonial ,Tools are Nolonger Effective . For a Dying. Desperate Degenerate Country Because the World has Caught on to America's Evil Tactics and Has moved on

[@MissAwa515]

@@koschmx You don’t see the stores locking up even grocery? How many stores get robbed? Homeless and drug addicts everywhere? Tent cities? Middle class bankrupting? Mass shootings at a high frequency? People focusing on figuring out what gender they are instead of being productive? Just look around man.

[@wgeo7161]

sadly this is the level of a stanford professor. he just lost track of his thought and contradicted himself on multiple fronts in 4 minutes. maybe the professorship is just a front.

[@MissAwa515]

@@wgeo7161 can you see my comment below the first one? Highly doubt YT hid my comment pointing out the US social problems.

[@Mike-id7bh]

My thoughts exactly. The USA are without doubt the biggest threat to world peace over the next decades simply because they have dug themselves into a hole that there is very few ways out.

[@stuartwray6175]

The US has been lashing out interminably for the last 20 years, not China.

[@thelonegerman2314]

America has Already Collapsed Economically Years ago, Every Since the 1970s , But America Compensate for it's Degenerate State by Exporting Wars , Inflation, Death, Propaganda and DeMockracy to Exploit Other Countries Natural Resources So a Few privileged Entitled.Class.Can live Lavishly Examples are the Billionaire Boom under "Reaganomics" When Poverty was Rampant for Millions in America Other Tools America uses are the Petrodollar, Sanctions, NGOs to Maintain.its Grip on Perceived US power and Exceptionalism, But these US Neocolonial ,Tools are Nolonger Effective . For a Dying. Desperate Degenerate Country Because the World has Caught on to America's Evil Tactics and Has moved on

[@Hibernicus1968]

Regarding what he said about our debt to GDP ratio being 110%, just as it was at the end of WWII... We could deal with that then, and then go on to the economic boom of the 1950s because we were, in the aftermath of WWII, the only fully intact, large industrial base in the world. At the end of the war, the US was producing _half_ of the world's manufactured goods. It gave us the income to service our massive war debt, pay most of it off, and have wealth and living standards unprecedented in human history. Today, we only produce 16.6% of the world's manufactured goods. Taking on the level of debt we have now was simply _insane._ We are in for some really hard times if we don't get our fiscal house in order.

[@konagirl805]

I’d argue there’s no longer the opportunity of “if action X then collapse Y can be avoided.” That ship sailed more than 20 years ago. Even now, in the worst inflationary period of my lifetime and a 33+T national debt (and still rapidly rising), our government spends and spends and spends… then you look around and most everyone are poorer than their parents and way too many places look worse than unstable 3rd world countries. This doesn’t necessarily mean the end the country but it absolutely does mean a great, GREAT humbling is upon us… perhaps though difficult it will be best in the long run to help remedy the wicked, degenerate, and lazy culture we currently have.

[@tomconservative1074]

I also don’t agree with the full employment narrative when how many able bodied people are sitting at home collecting welfare checks and how does that affect the debt situation as well

[@yaoliang1580]

​@@tomconservative1074it's the same in Europe. These very high wages especially for the top 10 percent plus the over generous social welfare is only possible as long as they have a complete monopoly of key technologies n thus a massive trade advantage over others. With China moving up the value chain n already out competing them in various fields, this unrealistically high wages n generous welfare is no longer sustainable n this is the reason for G7 nations antogonism towards China

[@JKTProductionzIncNCo]

@@yaoliang1580 yea basically. The west can "absorb" industrialized countries when they have populations comparable to Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan etc. But having countries with populations like Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, etc. isn't possible. Let alone countries like Indonesia, India, & China. Since China/India/Indonesia are too big to be "swallowed"/"digested" by European nations, any one of those 3 has the possibility of replacing the US as the top economic power of the world.

[@yaoliang1580]

@@JKTProductionzIncNCo partly agree but having a huge population may not be the deciding factor in a country's ability to progress if they are governed by extremely incompetent n corrupt leaders like India who is unable to develop the full potential of their own people. Both India n Indonesia r just too far behind China, let alone able to pose a challenge to the US economy

[@dougg1075]

We are going down fast folks. And many have no idea what’s coming

[@lesleymooney305]

What is coming?

[@johndecker2987]

@@lesleymooney305for starters, China will be in total control of the African continent.

[@llIlIlllII]

@@lesleymooney305 Well when most people say this, they mean declining quality of life to match third world countries. So like, destroyed infrastructure (school/hospital/water/food/road systems as well as function of economy-- banking/legal systems) leading to collapse of something like the basic glue that holds a country together (increased corruption, decreased trust on all levels between peoples, which will also mean businesses as well). In the worst case, a war which we won't be able to defend ourselves from, which obviously leads to literally destroyed buildings/roads/etc and massive loss of life.......... They likely also mean increased surveillance of average citizens, digital currency..... I think you knew that though x'D

[@ernst624]

Start prepping by buying Made in USA only

[@johndecker2987]

Agreed, I was in Boot Barn the other day and all the Western-style clothes were made in China. I had to leave.@@ernst624

[@a9udn9u-vanced]

Saying China will launch a war is a clear display of idiocy.

[@Lolpopi8547]

I'm pretty sure this is a satirical video. Replace "China" with the "US Empire" and everything he says makes a lot more sense.

[@monizdm]

Not really. Having domestic economic trouble? Stir up a war. Read the Falklands/Malvinas playbook. Replace that with Taiwan and you have a game on... That said, if the Chinese leadership were smart, they would see how those adventures typically end.

[@ryand141]

Why? They could invade Taiwan.

[@marylou3995]

I don’t know- Australia is a bit worried & cant see anyone coming to help.

[@a9udn9u-vanced]

@@marylou3995 China invading Australia? Give me a break...

[@sophiefuller7213]

"Don't forget to pay your taxes. Ukraine and Israel are counting on them!" It breaks my heart down to its deepest core when I realize everyday how us Americans dont actually matter anymore to our government...

[@SuanLuang]

Americans need to experience what their country has been inflicting upon humanity.

[@rudeawakening3833]

Taxation WITHOUT REPRESENTATION !

[@terrylandess6072]

Plebe, Peasant, Problem people - just shut up and serve our masters . . . .

[@lamarcalewarts1155]

Move to china and see. Good place for you to enjoy.

[@manan007]

Especially Israel.

[@mmojave]

The one who lashes out on others would probably be the US.

[@kenho-wr5ul2rh7m]

as a chinese, the major problem i feel america has is they are living in the shadow of others, like China China China but not live for themselves, this is very crazy

[@lordumas]

We don't have a choice, we are ruled by oligarchs

[@mizanrahman5194]

And sadly USA is run by non Americans and deep states, which are again dictated by non Americans.

[@brewingtonnadine]

because when they live for themselves, Internal affairs will be eminent

[@thelonegerman2314]

America has Already Collapsed Economically Years ago, Every Since the 1970s , But America Compensate for it's Degenerate State by Exporting Wars , Inflation, Death, Propaganda and DeMockracy to Exploit Other Countries Natural Resources So a Few privileged Entitled.Class.Can live Lavishly Examples are the Billionaire Boom under "Reaganomics" When Poverty was Rampant for Millions in America Other Tools America uses are the Petrodollar, Sanctions, NGOs to Maintain.its Grip on Perceived US power and Exceptionalism, But these US Neocolonial ,Tools are Nolonger Effective . For a Dying. Desperate Degenerate Country Because the World has Caught on to America's Evil Tactics and Has moved on

[@Siranoxz]

But so is China.

[@iainmackenzieUK]

is this why America is lashing out? it feels weak and threatened?

[@iainmackenzieUK]

haha - I guess Americans do not recognise it when viewed from within. But from outside, its possible to see that America has a tendency to lash out at other countries. It has military and economic might and (much as Americans deal with one another) they are not shy about using that might to their own advantage. You might call it 'being competitive' if you were from America. @@koschmxI believe "doubling down" is an increasingly common expression emerging in recent years from American culture.

[@iainmackenzieUK]

well, as the young say these days..."whateverrrr" People who were once in charge and now weakened are the most dangerous; ike cornered rats. . Of course that would include UK too but, in general us white men seem to make up a significant proportion.. @@koschmx

[@Glen-ft8ch]

USA is finished. Leave if you can.

[@matisyahup613]

it really is and its scary

[@albertpuig6273]

All countries and empires decline eventually. Why should America be any different?

[@drexlspivey3047]

People under 30 really need to worry.

[@-solz5644]

As a 17 year old I’m worried about the future for my family and children

[@gloriathomas3245]

I'm not worried about America'd decline because the world needs multipolarity

[@brotherbig4651]

No, there won’t be multipolarity. China will be the new US. And your country will turn into authoritarianism.

[@flovv4580]

“Nothing ever goes away until it has taught us what we need to know." ― Pema Chödrön

[@benplumlee751]

Late 1970- 80s American automotive makers refused to deliver quality cars at a good price. Japanese cars took the market. It’s was a complete failure to innovate and provide the customer with what they wanted a good product at a good price. China is about to do the same with EVs.

[@thomasrogers9146]

THE AMERICAN POLITICIANS AND OUR PEOPLE DO NOT SEEN TO UNDERSTAND THAT WE CAN NOT CONTINUE TO SPEND LIKE CRAZY.

[@hannibalkemet9824]

And we cannot continue to give massive tax cuts to wealthy corporations.

[@clemfarley7257]

We’re stuck with an Establishment that bet incorrectly and doesn’t really know how to deal with a mess that it caused. We are not living in a fully-globalized peaceful world that values making $, having material comforts, and letting the US steward us all along to its tune. Only a fool who spent no time in a city schoolyard could have thought the outcome would be different. Modern liberalism, not classical liberalism, gone awry. Volcker, a brilliant but common-sense man, said we’re run by a plutocracy. He’d know, right? For him to say that, that, besides being true, had to be problematic. But they don’t seem to think they’re the problem. In fact, they double-down on themselves and their way of thinking and their ideas. That might be the problem.

[@JKTProductionzIncNCo]

The plutocratic establishment in nato countries are far too decadent, hedonistic, and arrogant to change. This will all come crashing down painfully.

[@clemfarley7257]

JKT. I’m afraid you’re right.

[@mikexhotmail]

1984 in a making ​@@JKTProductionzIncNCo

[@supersaintchristophe337]

Not sure if the world wouldn't be a better place without American " influence ". As for China whereas the British and American interjections were normally behind a gun the Chinese use money and diplomacy. And then people will wonder why the emerging African economies prefer to deal with them !!

[@kramer9929]

Doe's the US need 750 military bases? Must cost a bit.

[@mikepaulson3631]

If the US spends 10 times more for "defence" and still cannot override Russia in Ukraine means only that defence system is at least 10 times less efficacious and proved superior only in dealing with small, weak states. It means further borrowing, and the outcome is very clear.

[@rkey870]

America spent less then 2% of its annual defense budget on Ukraine. Its the politicians who hold it back from giving what ukraine needs to win. Right now we pay a little money to avoid blood, dont kid yourself if Ukraine lose's blood will come next.

[@danhtran6401]

That's almost as bad as Russia taking two years to invade a non-militarized country.... 😂

[@jozephvoorheez2760]

You talking about Ruzzia’s three day war now going on two years? 🤦🏻‍♂️

[@lordumas]

If it wasn't for NATO and US, they would have been steamrolled @@danhtran6401

[@sandorski56]

If the US sent it's Military into Ukraine, they would have occupied Moscow a year ago. Provided no Nukes were launched.

[@placeofvalue]

Get your citizens to be patriotic then get them passionate with sports and entertainment, promote America as the world so they don't need to question any other country they hear about that's bad, they have the super heroes from Hollywood.

[@jaja3359]

America is in decline bc there are too much people like Niall Ferguson, the world is changing and these people think they can hold their grip on something that is inevitable to fail

[@Kirby5413]

All institution fail over time, but to throw them away is a recipe for cultural suicide. So, America is in decline because there are too many ignorant people like YOU around messing it up!

[@ppen8359]

America is not in decline but it is meeting the reality. That world war 2 and post industrial era had given America an unfair advantage and now that advantage is going away as other countries have caught up.

[@wei270]

@@ppen8359yes i agree, and the second part of that sentence is that America is putting up with this reality very poorly

[@jons4418]

@@ppen8359 “Unfair advantage.” While we did bomb Germany and Japan, they started the war. What you may mean is that the U.S. was all but untouchable. Our mainland was unreachable by either the Japanese or the Germans with the war technology of the time, and our industrial plant was by far the largest in the world. Unfair advantages do not compute in warfare. Our geographic position, industrial base and large population gave us advantages, yes, but unfair-it’s foolish to say such things. We did essentially rebuild and reform both Germany and Japan, not to mention the rest of Europe, so we provided them with the tools to rebuild their own economies. We are still enormous compared to any other country in industrial output. China has caught up a bit, but started from a far inferior position and will have trouble keeping up with their shrinking population. America is not in decline, and provided our political and economic system are modernized we will continue to be such for the foreseeable future.

[@jons4418]

@@Rob-iz6nm simply not true

[@EZ-rs5zv]

The only countries which I see "lashing out" right now are the USA, Russia and Israel, so it is not just autocracies which we need to worry about, we also need to worry about poorly run countries in general.

[@songlin1506]

Truth sometimes is hard for people to accept which leads to total wrong prescription for the sick

[@thedownunderverse]

Israel “lashing out”… what are you smoking?

[@jacquelineperet6599]

You are part of the US problem with a comment like this 😮

[@rickeyjay7164]

This man is correct but sadly speaks well over the heads of at least 60% (I’m being generous) of the dumbed down American public.

[@fraymond3]

"Pearls before swine"

[@thehturt5480]

You are indeed generous 💯👍😆

[@clemfarley7257]

Your comment is severely flawed. The man on the street essentially just had his vote. He voted for Biden, trump who had 4 yrs and was handcuffed and undermined the entire time (and so we never saw his best or worst), Obama for 8, Bush for 8, Clinton for 8, Bush for 4, Reagan for 8, and Carter for 4. They got in the main their way, their wars, their budgets, their spending, their borrowing, their policies, their priorities. The Elites, the best and brightest, Harvard, Davos, the CFR, big tech, the media call the shots. No one disputes that. And you imply the masses are the ones who put us in this position and are the impediment to good government, the good regime. My friend, I wonder whether the last 50 yrs didn’t go over your head.

[@keiththomas1416]

You can throw in the European ins that observation as well, speaking from the doomed island of the United Kingdom.

[@banta-pd8zj]

Yes, can someone please elaborate something for me. John Anderson when decrying the voices calling for socialism, etc., lambasts those making these calls by labelling them elites then mimicking and mocking the accents of 99% of his distinguished guests. I'm confused. Or is John Anderson confused.

[@kamarudinharun8556]

I don't believe china will go to war when it experience a slow down. I am from Malaysia, and i am personally involve in several deals and project with china's companies. I am their equal and they seek for collective growth in all of my deals.

[@MohammadaliAnsarizadeh]

The US government has to stop spending like drunken sailors. Stop government overspending and cut taxes. That is what America is all about.

[@alexkohl814]

Cut taxes to pay down a deficit?

[@neilreynolds3858]

That's what America was all about. Now it's about bread and circuses and violence.

[@mattman100x]

Ah yes, to pay a deficit, we must make sure the entity responsible for paying it has no money. What could possibly go wrong?

[@robertholland7558]

Deficit is a human construct. It does not exist in reality! It is based on an artificial value system. A house worth $50k some 40 years ago is today is now “valued” at $500k, yet the income has only doubled over the same period. 2+2= not only 5, it is far more then that!

[@liedersanger1]

America’s all about low taxes? I thought it was about using progressive taxes (along with private charity) to address shared problems, to create a more even playing field, and to shore up the “common good”- by supporting public education, infrastructure, basic research, health care, efc. Remember that? The “common good”? What an antique idea!

[@stevenklinkhamer9069]

In decline? How about on a downhill slide, greased by gross incompetence, stupidity on an Olympic scale. Well said, and share your concerns. A lot to be very concerned about currently.

[@mechislander]

He made so much sense until the last minute when he completely fell out of reality when talking about China.

[@bgcbgc-gb4qf]

This guy is a fake chinese expert. Period.

[@DW-op7ly]

I think he is too much of a historic economist Forgets the fact both the USA and China have nukes He is right the USA and China are having a war right now but it is a economic war Where the USA closes in on itself the Chinese send their people and companies out to their Belt and Road partner countries and ramp up their trade with these countries

[@Armitage01101]

If you switch the word China to USA then that entire segment makes sense, incl the Ukraine war, Taiwan provocations etc.

[@DW-op7ly]

China is not in decline it actually put the breaks on its economy starting in 2010 because of the real estate bubble which has taken 14 years to finally cool off And it for sure ain’t going to fight any wars… unlike the USA It does not have to as it’s winning the economic war with the USA anyways

[@lordumas]

If you keep believe everything you hear from western news media sure. But that also means you're a naive chump @@Armitage01101

[@VernonGoddard]

A very intelligent man who can draw the wrong conclusions about China and its longer term strategic goal.

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[@philipharris-smith5889]

The real problem is the end of the petrodollar.

[@peterburke5894]

To say Japan didn’t go to was because it was confident ignores the history of what Japan was doing in Manchuria in the 1930s and why they were subjected to economic sanctions.

[@bearowen5480]

The sources I've seen say the American debt to GDP ratio is worse even than Niall stated. The most recent figure I could find was 123%. The ratio at the end of WWII was about 105%. We managed to gradually pay down that post-war debt primarily by increasing tax revenues issuing from a booming American post-war economy. America's key global market trade competitors, UK, Germany, and Japan had their manufacturing capacities nearly destroyed by the war, so America made hay while the sun shone. The debt problem for America today stems largely from overspending on social programs and insane anti-carbon global warming schemes. The costs of defense spending as a portion of the Federal budget will soon be surpassed by interest payments on the bloated national debt. Rising interest rates will greatly exacerbate the problem. Raising taxes will cripple the economy and further reduce tax receipts by the Federal Government. The cracks are already starting to show. This is a recipe for disaster. When Social Security and Medicare go insolvent in the next decade, that may finally be the straw breaking the camel's back. The whole American economic ediface may very well come tumbling down. It will not end well.

[@AnonymousGuy341]

Overspending on social programs? Have you been to the US?

[@Madeintheshade65]

Why are you using Republican talking points social services are barely funded it’s the military budget and tax cuts for the rich that is killing America.

[@ennediend2865]

​@@AnonymousGuy341 Well asked 👍

[@echochamber1234]

@@AnonymousGuy341 our government alone (not even including private spending) spends more on healthcare per person than the NHS which provides universal health care. so no we are not spending too little; it's the horrendous inefficiency and profiteering. so yes we are overspending, never said the money was being used well.

[@davidpnewton]

​​@@AnonymousGuy341 "Have you been to the US?" Yes I have. Have you actually looked at the expenditure figures? Given your post I doubt it. Welfarism is killing western societies. It's the undeserving poor (yes they do exist) plus massive inefficiency and grift that's doing it.

[@russell-hj6kp]

Debt consolidation or debt slavery, the federal government throws American taxpayers money into the pockets of some of the most unimportant things possible, including hiring way to many people in government jobs, these are the very people who should be starting businesses, mostly those who went to college and learned things that are no help in the real world, time for government layoffs ~ 4/5ths working in government are unimportant, unnecessary, government agencies are job programs at taxpayers expense.

[@johnmac333]

Agreed , but getting rid of govt employees (and programs) is nigh on impossible . They all vote Dem , or labor in the UK and Oz ,exacerbating the problem.

[@FrontUW]

This is the Swamp President Trump refers to that no one dares dismantle.

[@szolanek]

That's the miracle of the education. You can talk smart fluently without saying anything.

[@jgroszer]

The USA projecting power „across multiple theatres“ coming to an end is great news. The world has rather had enough of US wars and „confrontations“. Besides, the Chinese population shrinking is not necessarily going to be such a huge threat. China is still rapidly increasing its economic productivity, wich means it can produce more with a smaller workforce. China‘s GDP per person is still only a quarter of the US‘. As a European, I feel considerably less threatened by the „authoritarian“ Chinese regime than the „democratic“ US regime, which defecates all over international law and international institutions from a great height. I absolutely welcome a decline in US power without wishing any ill on the American people. 4% of the world population cannot forever violently hold the other 96% to ransom and impose their will on them. 😮

[@feliz2892]

On China, the real problem is their demographic structure. They dependacy ratio is going to be really bad.

[@ifstatementifstatement2704]

I just watched an interview with him on triggernometry where he said America was just fine. I’m confused?!

[@djtan3313]

He’s a professional liar.

[@Illisil]

Got a link to that video? Find it in the history of videos you've watched

[@ifstatementifstatement2704]

@@Illisil kzbin.info/www/bejne/mqWxaI1oZcyUbLs

[@same.6409]

First Niall was giving us figures showing how America is in decline relatively to China, then he warned us about the dangerous of a declining giant as China may slowdown in the future. But, should he be worry about the America first?

[@HC20047]

A stable democracy in economic decline does not pose the same kind of threat as an autocratic dito. The autocracy in decline needs conflict to disrupt the current prerequisites and drum up support for increased spending and blackmailing and robbing other countries.

[@same.6409]

​@@HC20047 okay, I like your idea, but you also saying that the American has stable democracy today?

[@HC20047]

@@same.6409 The political climate and polarized debate is not very flattering, but the institutions are still intact. This could change, however.

[@gerrytyrrell1507]

If the US falls the west fall's.. Ireland

[@yaoliang1580]

Which is why these US vassal states need to support their criminal master at all cost

[@thegarfield2414]

@@yaoliang1580 The real criminal is you bling bling.

[@yaoliang1580]

@@koschmx enjoy your criminal worship

[@MarkHansen1990]

Absolutely agree.

[@DW-op7ly]

I think he is too much of a historic economist Forgets the fact both the USA and China have nukes these days He is right the USA and China are having a war right now but it is a economic war Where the USA closes in on itself the Chinese send their people and companies out to their Belt and Road partner countries and ramp up their trade with these countries

[@clemfarley7257]

USSR didn’t lash out during its economic decline. History isn’t so easy to learn from. Sometimes it tells you what you want to hear or what you’re looking for.

[@zuperdee]

The USSR was CONSTANTLY “lashing out” at the Western world over the entire course of its pathetic 74 year existence. Things like its military occupation of Eastern Europe, the Berlin Wall, the malign activities of the NKVD/KGB across the world, their placement of nuclear missiles in Cuba (which they removed ONLY in exchange for the US removal of its Jupiter missiles from Turkey)… Not to mention the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan… The ONLY reason it collapsed peacefully after all that was thanks to the combination of Reagan, who finally ended the US détente policies, and the rise of Gorbachev, who was far more rational and pragmatic than past Soviet leaders. As we’ve seen lately, Vladimir Putin has started lashing out again, DESPITE the economic consequences to his country. Bottom line: You CANNOT assume that leaders will always be rational. This is the mistake that so many people seem to make nowadays: Assuming that no country could possibly dream of acting AGAINST their own economic self-interest. History has shown time and time again that this is simply not true.

[@KieranLoughlin-yr7jt]

Afghanistan

[@clemfarley7257]

Kieran. Thx. I think Naill by saying lashing out while in decline he meant attacking the peer competitor or an ally of the peer, not a neutral such as Afghanistan. I like him a lot by the way. I’m just seeing that neoliberalism and neoconservativism are not the answer. Our kids are looking at inauspicious lives. The elites could care less. There is a massive money grab going on. And the people with the least to gain are being used in a way never seen before to make the already rich far richer, and they feel no sense of obligation. It’s sad.

[@mmojave]

The one who would probably lashes out on others would be US.

[@clemfarley7257]

MM. lol. Very good

[@robertdouglas8895]

Universities operate in fear of losing their supply because they are too expensive for what they provide. Worry won't solve problems: love, wisdom and valuable service do.

[@robertdouglas8895]

@@Brunel1859 Only if you are going into a career that doesn't pay enough. Be wise in your choices. The universities are offering some poor choices.

[@JohnAranita]

In my proud PBS collection, I have Mr. Ferguson on Networld and The Ascent Of Money.

[@Ballardian]

I take the opposite view: America is in decline, let's celebrate.

[@Movingforward2000]

💯

[@centanaire7507]

It’s interesting that a world class historian can not be free of the bias of apparent ideology in his analyses.

[@user-jf6bh9fu4v]

I see the problem as the mistaken idea that the US is a democracy, when it is actually an oligarchy. And neither democracy, nor education, nor welfare or health spending are of any benefit to an oligarchy. This issue is almost universal, and not specific to the US. But the deflection of the general population from the core issue , by oligarchs and the corporations , is most obvious and extreme in the so called 'home of democracy'.

[@Expedition_Tranquilo]

Yes that's the crux of it...

[@-solz5644]

Amen!

[@eddylee7786]

Why should we be worried?

[@samcarena4702]

No the world should rejoice

[@iart2838]

Always, the simplest solution never mentioned: tax the rich instead of borrowing but our corrupt gov serves the wealthy. That's what tanks empires

[@user-xf3cu4le5z]

The rich are already taxed enough, everyone is taxed enough, it's a spending issue, if you get punished for working hard which most rich ppl do, you won't be incentivized to work. Government is about cronyism, follow the money, they work for the corporations to control the market for them and stop their competition.

[@RD-jc2eu]

@@user-xf3cu4le5z You clearly have no clue what %-age of income the typical "rich" person ACTUALLY pays. It's less -- often significantly less (on a %-age basis) -- than the typical middle-class person.

[@Expedition_Tranquilo]

​@@user-xf3cu4le5ztax isn't punishment. It's an investment in society and the common good. Scandinavia, with higher taxes than America, has a higher number of entrepreneurs per capita (along with a happier, better educated, healthier, longer living citizens). No entrepreneur ever said I'm not going to start up a company or not going to invent something because of high taxes.

[@user-xf3cu4le5z]

@@Expedition_Tranquilo as if high taxes attracts entrepreneurs, ppl are moving from cali to texas and Florida for that exact reason.

[@user-xf3cu4le5z]

@@Expedition_Tranquilo what worries me is you default to government being the moral good guys and good with money which is not true. Ppl like to use Scandinavia countries for some reason but they are market based economies and despite what ppl think they have highly free market healthcare even entire hospitals are private because the government is just terrible at offering anything quality or affordable.

[@davidnek8196]

Why WORRY? No law says Empires last forever, just look at history of empires that came and gone.

[@flovv4580]

Well said. Everything that has a beginning has an end. Nothing lasts forever. People should learn to accept this fact.

[@RaniVeluNachar-kx4lu]

First, the core values are expressed in the Family Structure. That is the essence of the life of any people or country. We can point to the Wealth Gap or Racism or lack of funding for education or low-stagnant minimum wages too. But before we get to those Systemic Issues, we need to address the CORE beliefs of the American families. Those families need to be stable with a two person/adult leadership and income if the family is a biological unit. If not, then single head of households can work too but that puts more burden on the one parent as family head, income generator and key value and support person. The value and support person(s) roles need to be well defined and competent. Adults need to understand and be able to execute the role they take. Income is half the struggle, but there needs to be care of the household, it's basic workings and facilities, the maintenance of the food and utilities and transportation and healthcare of the family needs to be understood and manages. People need to be ready to make this commitment. And people need to understand that it's a lifelong commitment to parent and that does not stop after the children graduate high school or turn 18. Stable adults need to understand that their life is more than just their own personal life. They are a bigger thing and that will require an adult to be more than they were just as a single or a "couple" without children. Parenting and even eventually grandparenting are big tasks and NOT everyone is ready. I recommend people be very careful before they take on the family structure in their life. It's import to try to be ready even if you can't know what ready will require. I suggest people make goals for themselves first before they get involve in a partner or spouse and then start making biological or adoptive families. People can also delay and reduce the number of children. Nothing wrong with waiting to be a parent until well into your early 30's generally for women, though fertility does generally seem to decline. Men don't need to hurry into fatherhood. Nothing wrong with waiting to get married and parent well into your mid or latter 30's or even early 40's. Yes. You run the risk of being asked someday if you are your children's Dad or Granddad, but it's not that unusual. And nothing bad about having one child. Many cultures are doing that because of the cost and the reality of the two working adults families having competing careers/work responsibilities too. There is some argument too, that one possible benefit of smaller families and later stage of life families is the reduced burden on the climate too. We don't have to produce as much living space, cars, food and all the other usual material needs for a family of three versus a family of six. So, the reality is "Family Planning" is a necessity that helps people become ready before they make the commitment. Sorry, if I offended anyone.

[@evgeniybeschastnov4627]

Although I do not like China, I must ask one question: has China started any war recently? I hear that mostly this is about NATO, Russia and Israel which get involved in plenty of conflicts. China at the same time seemingly does not participate. How then can you blame China for being a threat?

[@BattlestarZenobia]

Isn’t he an apologist for European Empires?

[@LanaKaniuka-ql3uo]

As America tackles big challenges in American mental health issues!!!

[@Paul-H-Wolfram6608]

Why should we worry ? Just let it decline.

[@bosse641]

Such SAD times. ....to see America ruined and lost. ....lost to Evil. But the prophetic Word has to be fulfilled. Very dark and evil days at the closing of the age. Grim times. God help the patriot remnant.

[@juventinorodriguez3639]

Oligarchs have the government with tied hands.

[@urimtefiki226]

they are destroying the middle class in the US

[@oklahoma1232]

So did UK !❤

[@lamrof]

China will be just alright, thanks very much for your concern.

[@Tank50us]

One thing to note, the US has intentionally slowed our weapons procurement in order to ensure that the people making them are still employed. If, for example, all 3,000 new M1s were delivered within a few months, most of those working in the plant would be laid off once the last tank rolls out the door. In war footing, the rates can be increased, since tanks will get destroyed, and need to be replaced. The same applies to munitions. If the Air Force orders 10,000 JDAMs next year, and they get them all within a month, then the people working those lines will be laid off. In short, we do actually have the capability to out-produce China in a hot war with them. The issue we'd run into is can we _protect_ them. I'd argue that China probably couldn't protect its factories. We just have way to much capacity to bypass their defenses. But I'd say that we could effectively protect about 60% or more of our manufacturing capacity without issue. the remaining 40% can still be defended, but some defenses may require proper installation to obtain it.

[@SpaceHCowboy]

Clever thinking. 👍🏼

[@philiphumphrey1548]

Certainly that was the story with the last world war. American weapons production was very low before the war, and some weapons like the Mk14 torpedo were very poor quality. It took the US a couple of years to massively increase production and increase the effectiveness.

[@nocrtname]

China relies on imports and exports to feed its economy and people. They’re not energy independent or food independent. If it comes to it, the us will stop their oil imports over the Indian Ocean and starve both their industry and war machine.

[@lukeneill1568]

lol America out produce China. Good one mate.

[@yaoliang1580]

Passing the buck to others for your own extravagence n serious economic mismanagement. Enjoy your blame game n continue with your brainwashing sessions

[@paulmatters2641]

We can feel Niall's pain at the end of the US empire. All those cheques, payments and sinecures Niall. O the tragedy.

[@johnmcentegart007]

The British love to hear themselves talking

[@ericradford2142]

It seems like every time we start to get over things, something else happens. #whenarewegoingtodosomething #takebackourcountry #waketheheckupamerica

[@philipemerson473]

Any great power that allows the privileged super-rich to escape taxation while accumulating wealth on scales heretofore only associated with failed states is headed for trouble. Tax the rich Niall. Bet you never thought of that. But then, you would not bite the hand that feeds.

[@hylimm]

Lol who is threatening the US? US itself! So you should reduce the defence budget!

[@tinominelli5606]

And at last the rest of the world could Live in peace

[@glass8289]

Finally, Someone is telling the truth about USA Economy.

[@petermckeown1583]

Excellent succinct discussions, well done!!!

[@globalinvestor7481]

Stop giving US tax payer money in overseas aid. Pay down debt and spend money in America

[@buraamedia7966]

The criminal bridge that American has been building for many years is now going to collapse on America

[@rudeawakening3833]

FACTS - Central Banks are ( and steadily have for over 3 years ) stockpiling physical GOLD & SILVER ! “ don’t do as bankers say - do as bankers do “ - said an unknown economist . We citizens globally need to become our OWN Central Bank and obtain physical gold and silver . Russia AND China have been encouraging their citizens to invest in this for years now . Poland and The Netherlands are recent examples of MORE central banks hoarding gold to back their currencies . Hundreds of US banks are on the brink of closing / going bust .

[@pp-bb6jj]

Demography is destiny. 90% White country and 50% White country is not the same. It matters.

[@michaelsmith473]

Unfortunately, true. For many reasons, but, the most important being the Leftists will always be gnawing at the racial seams.

[@pp-bb6jj]

I love how few likes I have. Let me out it differently. US 55% 100 IQ. China 92% 105 IQ. Good luck.

[@buravan1512]

-LARGEST ECONOMY is also the Largest BORROWER😂... this is Funny. -CHINA is the largest world Economy.

[@dominicdurzo8995]

watch American Beauty to get an easier understanding of American decline

[@rogerdiogo6893]

Starting a shortage of goods and services in the USA, in other words, life in Europe, is becoming unbearable 😢

[@gabrielgaranas]

One thing I disagree with is the rate by which the US military-industrial complex can up its production if need be. Could be true that the US is down in production in maybe all industries, but missiles and arms and bullets are a different matter. Aircraft and ship production may be slow but not for long.

[@landofthesilverpath5823]

Ferguson is looking at the US from the wrong vantage point. He's comparing us to old world empires. The US is the world's police man, not an empire. In fact, we have the negative side of empire, peacekeeping, but none of the positives- actually holding multination land. The US does have most of North America. If it's an empire, that's the Empire. And we've been turning it from a 90% mono-ethnic Empire into a multiracial and multicultural empire since 1965. The US government has been allowing the barbarians in for decades and this is the decline. Nothing to do with military spending, that's a red herring. It would cost us little to defend our borders, but the elites are traitors who want to destroy the European races.

[@JKTProductionzIncNCo]

@@Brunel1859 "muh cheap labor"

[@jhljhl6964]

When a country allows itself to be coerced, it must suffercthe consequences.

[@dohminkonoha3200]

My question is How will USA end this new Cold War? And what will USA manage post 2nd Cold War . How will US prepare for 3rd Cold War?

[@arewealone9969]

The world should be worried because US loves war and when things get desperate who knows what they will do.

[@hondo3004]

America’s level of diversity is far more problematic than it’s level of debt.

[@Expedition_Tranquilo]

Diversity doesn't seem to be a problem here in Australia...

[@mrbigolnuts3041]

American soliders have successively fought and died in wars for countries who do not believe in American principles or want American ethics. Ukraine, the first country since WWII that actually believes in America, and America does the very minium to help, when infact it should be showing strength

[@yaoliang1580]

Enjoy your foolish remarks

[@Alien9828]

It should have kept its fkn nose out as should have the west collective, virtually every country has demilitarized itself including the US, and for what ? A country that the vast amounts of Americans wouldnt even know where it was on a map.

[@williambranch4283]

What goes up must come down. Usually one party rides the upward trend and another rides the downward trend.

[@jumbomobile8806]

The reality is there is absolute nothing the US can do about the problem.

[@kadett75]

Yes, I am sure a neocon grifter and chickenhawk like Ferguson is very worried that the gravy train will end 🤣

[@LaVictoireEstLaVie]

I am impressed! At least one person sees through the Anglo-supremacist drivel that Anglo-supremacist/neocon grifter Ferguson is saying. This guy is an Anglo imperialist ideologue , just like so many that have come before him. For him and people like him the world reduces to Anglo-Americans = good, everyone else that does not submit to Anglo-American supremacy = bad. Instead of calling the current geopolitical struggle for what it is, US hegemony vs. a multi-polar world, he holds to the false narrative of "Autocracy vs. Democracy" lie. He and other far-right Anglo-American supremacists have learned NOTHING from history , when their imperial hubris is at full display.

[@timlarocco3708]

Niall thinks $750 billion in defense spending isn't enough. OK bucko

[@1258-Eckhart]

That wasn't his argument.

[@TheTeodorsoldierabvb]

You really can't wrap your head around it, can you? Those fancy, expensive, triply overpriced vehicles your complex produce (and that you pay for) aren't doing anything significant in Ukraine. If something is more expensive, it doesn't magically become better automatically :D otherwise, your favorite ukrops would've won the war already. Wars are won by producing more, having more in the first place, and having a fighting spirit among those enlisted. With your SJW recuitment, I doubt you'd be winning a war soon.

[@brianp1230]

Why doesn’t he propose an upper tax bracket of 90% like we had after WW2 to pay for necessary government expenditures and lower the debt. That makes sense.

[@Expedition_Tranquilo]

Because for all his skills at understanding history, he is too ideologically conservative to come up with the right answers.

[@MrBallynally2]

Niall always has very solid views. However, about China, lashing out in times of trouble will happen much sooner with american aggression and expansion. We have the Ukraine conflict as a template. Does the US continue salting the wounds? Both Russia and China have paranoid leaders. For good reason one might say. US arrogance just makes this aspect worse. The US thinks in terms of win and lose. And now the US has joined the paranoid club. What could possibly go wrong?

[@rcrinsea]

I never tire of hearing from this man. He's brilliant.

[@goonhoongtatt1883]

He's nothing but an apologist for Western colonisation.

[@Expedition_Tranquilo]

As long as you take everything he says with a grain of salt, knowing that he's an idealogical neocon.

[@rcrinsea]

@@Expedition_Tranquilo - He leans right but he is not calling for war with China like so many on the right. Fox News *cough

[@johnmarsh5390]

Mr. Ferguson tells us that the US is no longer the arsenal of democracy and makes various claims about how American industry is no longer capable of supplying the American military thereby illustrating our peril. He does this without providing a single relevant data point that would substantiate such concerns. It is easy to sit and chat about the terrible dangers lurking in the future. It's a lot more work to actually get the details right. Perhaps he is more thorough elsewhere or if the interviewer was actually asking appropriately pointed questions.

[@thelastbison2241]

Tell it to the ignorant but proud politicians who knows neither this country or other countries.

[@jimgoble48]

It is that pressure that makes Russia more dangerous now than ever before...

[@shelleyhayton9251]

Hmmm 🤔 yes, true

[@zibbitybibbitybop]

How has Niall missed the massive amount of reshoring, nearshoring, and friendshoring of industry that's happening right now as companies leave China and reestablish their supply chains in a more stable environment? This has been widely discussed on other channels, as have China's demographic and debt time bombs. The US may be politically neurotic, but our trajectory looks far better than that of China, Russia, or even the EU.

[@Pan_Z]

He just talked about the demographic collapse China is facing. The US' future, however ambiguous, is far more optimistic than most of the developed world.

[@lukeneill1568]

@@Pan_Zno it’s not. It’s much worse. The debt is insane and the entire dollar is reliant on middle eastern war. If Russia and China steps up. Enjoy those empty shelves fatty

[@MicheleLLOYD-bk2mt]

Dreamer. @@Pan_Z

[@jacobmee]

Don’t be silly. US takes very little chance to win because she is hoping China to collapse so the money will flow to US, instead of be strong and self sufficient by US herself. Which obviously is not a good way to go.

[@DW-op7ly]

Where are you getting your figures most companies that did leave China went to SE Asia where China has a strangle hold on their economies With all the postering the USA still has not stopped buying from China And when I say buying from China I use that word loosely Chinese companies are exporting their goods mostly to their Belt & Road country partners It’s is mostly US multinational corporations based in China using their wholly owned factories and suppliers, exporting those goods for Americans to buy while inflating those Chinese export numbers to the USA and trade deficit US multinationals who are still using the same labour intensive highly polluting factory formula Only these days they are using more and more illegal workers smuggled in from SE Asia or more and more automation in their factories in China Same corporations who derive a big chunk of their revenue from selling their goods and services into the Chinese domestic markets Same corporations whose high flying stocks are in US stock exchanges and your Pension/401ks Same corporations who got those huge corporate tax cuts you no doubt cheered on Same corporations trump sacrificed the American consumer and American farmer to try and get more or better access into those Chinese domestic markets for those multinational corporations in China Same corporations whose headquarters are in North Americans cities folks can easily go picket Plus the slowdown in China everyone keeps talking about was by design as the Chinese Central Government cut off money flow to their property developers in 2010 That’s because there is still a few hundred million poorer rural folk still expected to move to the cities and join their richer urban countrymen. Only problem was these developers were building more high-end housing and not the affordable housing these rural migrants need Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on overt displays of wealth Their Government figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest

[@terrylandess6072]

Why should Oligarchs worry? They are brining in a new crop of eager and compliant immigrants to cover what will be lost from the situation with China - profit rules.

[@Pan_Z]

A decent point at the end. The beast doesn't hunt when his belly is full.