Anthony Santander vs. Tyler O'Nell: Did the Orioles make the right move?

[@Lbsmith94]

I met Tony at Jimmys Seafood for an event… Tony was one of the nicest people I’ve ever met. Going to miss him so much!!! 😢

[@jwgibbs44]

Let’s get some likes here folks - Connor does an excellent job

[@dbarker7794]

Very good analysis. Thanks. How often does O'Neill pop up with runners on base? Santander seemed to do that a lot. Still, sorry to see him go, especially to an AL team.

[@LockedOnOrioles]

Santander popped up in 5.6% of his plate appearances with runners on base in 2024. 17.6% were strikeouts. That popup rate for Tyler O'Neill was 2.9%. His strikeout rate in those spots was 33.7%.

[@The_OC_Podcast]

@@LockedOnOrioleslove how you have time to respond to KZbin comments but you continue to treat me like worthless garbage after I’ve reached out to you several times trying to figure out why you hate me and don’t want me to be successful

[@KrillbornShrimptot]

"Maybe if O'Neill stays healthy..." That's a big "if," and O'Neill's strikeout rate doesn't exactly instill confidence. But what about the value of wanting to play in Baltimore, of Santander's role as a long-term Orioles hero? I'll never forget Santander's jubilation after Mullins hit a key HR to break out of a terrible slump. His joy in Mullins' accomplishment says everything you need to know about Santander as a teammate. Keeping Santander rather than signing O'Neill was a no-brainer.

[@simonbuser4593]

There is a Santander sized hole in my heart. The main way I’m able to get O’s content is from radio broadcasts (I’m in NC, blacked out of everything) and I’m going to miss Geoff Arnold’s ‘Tony Taters’ calls. I’ve got an Eddie Murray signed ball, will have to get my hands on one from Santander.

[@gordonwebb5613]

You forgot to mention the first round pick the O's get.

[@Bigpappa-h6d]

Second

[@pato.garrido8]

Hi Connor, thanks for your excellent work covering the O’s! I wanted to ask you for the next Mailbag: which are the remaining needs that you think the Orioles need to fill during the rest of the offseason? Thanks and have a nice day!

[@robinlware]

Pitching and a big bat. Period!

[@pato.garrido8]

@ Yeah, I agree. A starting pitcher, a reliever and a good bat (I think we need a good average/on base percentage guy, rather than a Home Run guy). What do you think?

[@ravenlunatic1168]

Top of the rotation type pitcher has to be a clear #1. I'd like to see a quality experienced bat, but that could be a trade deadline acquisition as that is more about postseason. Bullpen seems to be in good shape IMO.

[@drewc771]

People will hate this, but the O's don't really have any more major "needs" at this point. They may choose to add if the deal is right, but everything everybody has responded with are purely "wants". When it comes to an ace, I think every team thinks they "need" an ace. But in reality, there are only so many to go around.

[@michaeltolley6123]

This contract will give Heston kerste a real shot to play and I think I'll do a lot better than most people expect I think he can show that upside and power this year and I'm looking forward to seeing that

[@Esteromafia]

I would lean O'neill if they use the savings to lock up some of the younger guys but I agree i think missing Santander in the clubhouse will be a bigger loss than people realize

[@joehawk9839]

@@Esteromafia It has nothing to do with savings. There's no salary cap in baseball. Why do you think the Dodgers keep stacking there team? It's not like the Orioles put aside the money they didn't spend on Tony for a rainy day.

[@simonbuser4593]

Also, can you comment on the O’s new value menu pricing for concessions? Love they’re doing that, other venues seem to be doing similar things. My dad and brother and I can usually drive up for a series once a year (6-8 hours one way from Raleigh), nice to know we can all eat/drink for much cheaper especially after adding in gas, parking, hotels, eating out while you’re not at the game.

[@joehawk9839]

@@simonbuser4593 From a article on 8/14 from the Baltimore Sun. 2/3 of ticket prices have gone up, 1/3 have decreased, and the rest have remained the same. Also there is 30% increase in ticket service charges. Just Googled it after reading your comment. Don't think for one minute the powers that be didn't do there homework. There making up for it somewhere else.

[@cowboysnation3472]

We didn’t offer Burnes anything!! The man was asked, and stated he never seen anything in writing from the front office.

[@scottbiaggi3999]

I will miss Tony as he is a cornerstone to the winning Orioles of the last couple years. I'm hoping that our birds allocate the money saved to one of the baby birds. All the best Tony, cheers!!!!

[@donsmith3483]

Part of this deal is that Tony Tater will be, if not already, a full-time DH. The stops alot of roster flexibility that Hyde wants.

[@nasmithson27]

yeah definitely - esp with the Adley / Basallo combo incoming

[@m.u.f.f.i.n1724]

Second basement Robbie alamar was the second with the O's

[@mchartlaub570]

I don’t think is as black and white as Tony vs Tyler…. They’d only take Tony on a lesser year deal. For a 5-6 year deal at what he deserves, O’s wanna spend that money on younger stars like Gunnar and Adley. Plus they want to have space for the other younger, cheaper outfielders. Mullins will be gone after this season too. That said, while the switch hitting was nice, we lack right handed bats. Tyler was one of the better right-hand power bats. Even if he’s only a 1-year (O’s probably banking on this) that gives their young guys 1 more year to fill in that gap. Their long-game is to invest in the young core. Tony is one of my favorite players and I’m totally going to miss him in orange… but on the other hand O’s pumped all that money into Chris Davis years ago and then didn’t go and sign Manny or Schoop…didn’t extend Jones a few more years. As much as I love Tony, it’s smarter long term to go for this core and bridge the gap with guys like O’Neil

[@usnavalcorpsman]

Slow news cycle question: Do we know the City Connect 2.0 list?

[@doctorstrainlove6318]

Why would we not go after Profar? He’s got the defensive skills, hits for power but mostly average & one base.

[@caseyhayward8094]

short answer, yes due to fielding. santander might be a slightly better hitter but o'neill clears him in the field by a mile and is significantly cheaper. o's made the right decision no question.

[@michaeltolley6123]

I think the Tyler O'Neill contract is better because he hasn't Kirsten will get his shot to play too and I think he's going to do a lot better than people expect

[@jwgibbs44]

I’m ok with not paying Santander that $ because the real need is a number one for the rotation and without that I don’t see 2025 ending well for the O’s with or without Santander

[@jwgibbs44]

Starting to lose faith that Rubinstein and Elias is any improvement on Angelos and Elias

[@donsmith3483]

Fact. (Angelos/Duquette)

[@danielhudson6594]

To call this a success or not for the Orioles isnt really if O'Neil plays well because everyone knows that Oneil wont be back after this yr. What raally is the comparison is Kjerstad vs Santander. If Kjerstad doesnt get traded, his timeline lines up with Santander with the Blujays. If Kjerstad can give you 60-70 % of Santanders production the last 3 yrs, I think this decision was good because Santander will regress and I wouldnt pay Santander for 5-6 yrs. But if Kjerstad struggles and we cant sign someone else who can get close to his production, then this decision was bad.

[@donsmith3483]

its the combo of Kjerstad/Oneill vs Santander

[@danielhudson6594]

@donsmith3483 Yea that is right for this yr. But for the long term is Kjerstad

[@kpk33x]

Not as much savings on Santander as expected. You know what you get from Santander, 30+ HR (not 44 every year), low avg, K's, not great D, but 150+ games. O'Neill can mash and better OBP but is made out of tinfoil apparently...and his gold glove D of a few years ago is now maybe just above avg. Don't overrate it. 1. If...big if...O'Neill very healthy, plays 140+ games, mashes, he has great 2025 and opts out. Looks great for 1 season for Orioles. 2. Most likely, O'Neill misses chunk, Orioles find out if Kjerstad can play FT. This may or may not go well, may or may not be "a good deal". 3. O'Neill hurt a ton, Kjerstad not cutting it, we see too much Mateo or they get an Austin Slater roster spot occupier type. Yes the Orioles now have a $156M payroll, 15th overall. They ran in place, maybe replacing Santander and McCann, replacing bullpen parts, don't kid yourself that "back end of the rotation depth" spending they did is the same quality of losing Burnes. C'mon. Also...only $18M committed for 2026 which is 5th lowest I believe, and ZERO committed for 2028, tied for last! This should tell you not only are they not committed to being winners (yet) they could do 1 year contracts every winter, get off to a 35-45 start just once and be right back to 2018 very very quickly with a fire sale any year...don't think it can't happen if you remember July 2000. Until they lock up multiple players in the young core and get serious about a pitching staff with "lift off", that rocket sits on the launch pad. At any time, it can be put back into the hangar.

[@andykerr562]

Would the analytics back in 2016 have predicted accurately that this Rule 5 player would achieve the high level of production Tony has achieved? Definitely not. So let's not assume that he is the 30 year old corner outfielder that analytics has assumed will have a precipitous drop off in production after the next couple of years. If anything, he has gotten better and healthier as he learned more about fitness and the game itself.

[@robertcoren7318]

My problem with the Orioles roster strategy is the following: They pride themselves in their outstanding minor league prospects (now down to Holliday (who probably will play), Kjierstad, Mayo, Basallo. Mayo and Kjierstad are ready now but the team is afraid they may struggle and so the continue to hold them in limbo. They hold on to players they know like Mateo, Mullins, Mountcastle and play them instead of the prospects. I believe they are wasting the best years of the prospects.

[@donsmith3483]

Signing older players and sending top rookies down, is not a good strategy to stay relevant for the long haul....

[@jwgibbs44]

I would also like to see Rubinstein throw the bank at Gunnar and Adley, otherwise this franchise has opted for mediocrity

[@dontmindmeimjustspectating2871]

NO! if we even make it to 2030, 18.5 will be the price for an aging DH anyway so why wait till 2029 to give it to a stranger on a 1 year deal when we could just guarantee it now to a franchise legend that deserves it

[@dontmindmeimjustspectating2871]

*a franchise recent legend lol

[@enjoylife7030]

Both guys will likely regress at this point in their career. O'Neill saves 2mill a year and we are only committed for 3 years. If O'Neill is a mistake it is a short contract that the team can deal with more easily. We expect to have more outfielders coming up from the minors in the next 2 years or so as well. I do think Santander can continue to hit over 30 HR's a year as long as he is in a protected lineup, otherwise, they will just pitch around him. Glad to see Anthony get paid setting himself up for life.

[@danleblanc2321]

If O'Neill is healthy, he's the slam dunk winner.

[@jamesreckling6697]

O’Neill has been told he is going to be a full time player. He mashes lefties and is mediocre against righties. Combine this fact with his always being injured and losing the Santander clubhouse presence this is another horrible Elias move. Maybe not as bad as the Rogers trade but pretty bad. I am starting think Elias should be the head of scouting not the GM.

[@donsmith3483]

After seeing the starters they acquired, NO. The rotation is literally the 2nd WORST in the division.

[@michaeltolley6123]

Anthony Santander was a good outfielder good Oriole but he sucked in the postseason and it was time for the oils to move on and play small ball get a guy to get hit bass hits not just home runs

[@nasmithson27]

yep. i think he's a solid regular season player, but come crunch time with the pitching so escalated, he just struggled mightily

[@mordezylberminc9134]

Connor, since we missed out resigning Santander, there is a good replacement for his bat, and this player is- Pete alonso, like hes looking for a multi year deal like for an 3 year deal with an high aav and a opt out option, so I think he'll probably accept and sign an 3 year deal for $90-95 million with an opt out after the 2nd season so the opt out should like be after the 2026/2027 season, the high aav should be like an $30-35 million, please let me know of if that's a good idea, they like should also include in an club option for an 4th year(2028-2029)

[@robinlware]

Elias won't pay. Period!

[@calciumnitro7693]

So are O’Neil and Kjerstad just chopped liver to you?

[@drewc771]

Not happening.

[@andresguillen9186]

We got to get rid off the GM asap.

[@thenic9353]

We are in the Angelos 2.0. era! Not spending a dime on this team, no games no merch this is fucking bullshit

[@LockedOnOrioles]

Only 5 teams have spent more money than the orioles this offseason.

[@drewc771]

It's like folks aren't even paying attention. Just say crap without caring if it's true. The O's spent $50m to bring in O'Neil over three years, $15m on Morton, $13m on Sugano, $8.5m on Sanchez, $10m on Kitteredge, and off-season isn't over. Maybe they haven't gotten the guys people want, but those saying that they'e not spending at all and that this is "Angelos 2.0" have absolutely no f'n clue what they're talking about. Sorry, but is the truth.

[@donsmith3483]

@@LockedOnOrioles First, love the SHOW! The question is, are we better? We aren't. They filled the holes but we are not better overall.

[@LockedOnOrioles]

@ I also don't think they have gotten better (yet). But you could argue that with losing Burnes (he clearly wanted to go to Arizona), it's almost impossible to get better. Really tough to upgrade on a top-5 starter in MLB.

[@kosanmr2]

Santander will def. be missed - he carried the O's for a few weeks offensively. That said, can't sign everyone, and hard decisions will be made. At the very least, the O'Neil signing gives the O's more financial flexibility and gives us a player whose younger, plays better defense while allowing room for Kjerstad to get more AB's and grow.

[@tpstrato2270]

id say NO to Tyler O'Nell yur lucky to get 300ABs per year plays maybe 60% of the games

[@PastorBrianBetsworth]

What a lousy exchange…

[@joehawk9839]

T-3 and counting,T -2 and counting,T -1 and counting we have lift off 🚀.Lol!

[@m.u.f.f.i.n1724]

The orioles have too many young outfields and minor leagues