Aptera IPO coming! Aptera and other 3-wheelers & inexpensive EVs, and Aptera funding

In this video I share with you: (1) Current financial market conditions for an Aptera IPO. Market conditions matter for when Aptera does their IPO. (2) I then compare Aptera to other three wheeled vehicles. (3) Next I compare Aptera to other inexpensive EVs. I also speculate on Aptera sales volumes. (4) Finally, I share some insights on Aptera Motors new investment banking relationship, and note June 30, 2024 is the last day to invest in Aptera's crowdfunding before an IPO. I also share what I'm thinking about post-investment banker funding rounds and IPO.
NOTE: I misspoke, there are 48,000 Aptera reservations. Sorry.
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0:00 - Musical Opening
0:51 - Introduction
2:37 - Topics Covered in Video
3:17 - Current Financial Market Conditions for an Aptera IPO
5:18 - Comparing Aptera to Other Three Wheelers
9:16 - Giveaway
10:01 - Comparing Aptera to Other Inexpensive EVs
15:45 - Update on Aptera Funding
16:35 - Closing Remarks
18:23 - Musical Closing

[@ubaldinovega5775]

Once again you have shown us common sense and clarity about what is going on at Aptera,thank you Mr Rodriguez for showing us how great Aptera is and the great future that is coming our way

[@adimchionyenadum2962]

The show is finally getting away from centering solely on financial prospects and IPO strategy and slowly getting into broader Aptera issues like the ones you dealt with here. One of your best till date IMO. Charge on!

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

Thank you for viewing My Aptera Journey. You will find the show will change once again after I receive my car. I will feature driving experiences all the time and comments about the vehicle. I will still include financial information because it’s vital to have the company prosperous. It’s hard to satisfy everyone’s interest, but I’m glad you enjoyed this exposé of competing vehicles and prices. Charge on!

[@apteratime]

48,000 reservations currently

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

Thanks! I recall 40 something…. Several years of production! Sorry I got this fact wrong. Charge on!

[@charangohabsburg1]

@@Rich1Rodriguez On KZbin you can overlay text on the video to correct that mistake.

[@shrimptopian3392]

​ People can, he can't

[@deanmcmanis9398]

Thanks Rich for this informative video. I think that it is good to compare the Aptera to other 3 wheeled vehicles ONLY to the point where you can see that there is an eager niche market for affordable, and fun 3 wheeled vehicles. But I don't see them as Aptera's competition. As you showed, there is not one of them that offers the higher levels of EV range, performance, efficiency, or practicality that the Aptera does. Like Morgan, Polaris did once say that they were going to build an EV version of the Slingshot, but that concept faded away. I see Aptera's real competition as being a combination of low cost EVs and the growing (largely abandoned) base market of gas powered economy cars. Plus really anyone looking for an affordable, economical, fun vehicle, that is not a boring box. For EVs, Chevy has stopped building their very competitive Bolt EV, but the $35K base model EV Equinox (which was supposed to be its replacement) was delayed a year. Tesla came out with a refreshed Model 3, but using Chinese LFP batteries excludes it from getting the $7500 subsidies. The base Model Y is a cheaper EV for those who qualify for the subsidies. ....Small corrections. The Vandehall EV is called the Santa Rosa (which is a beautiful city up here in Northern California). You already saw the 48K reservation holder comments, Geely is the automaker who owns Volvo (who is building the EX30) and their non-China EV tariff loophole might go away before the entry level EX30 sells in the U.S.

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

Thank you for viewing, and your thoughtful observations. Aptera is clearly in a class by itself given its extraordinary efficiency, and all the benefits that stem from that. Charge on!

[@ddessert6]

Rich, I always look forward to your review and insight. As far as Aptera's funding, I fail to see how working with US Capital Global is much different than what they currently have. US Capital Global still needs to raise the $65M. That money is not "in the bank" or usable until US Capital Global cuts Aptera a check. Of course they are not going to cut a single check, that would be foolish of US Capital Global, but have milestones that Aptera needs to meet before money is provided. The analogy of a construction loan seems to work well here though the bank doesn't have to raise the money for my construction loan. The bank will not cut a single check but has milestones that must be completed generally with inspections to make sure I am using the money as intended. I really was hoping that Aptera was going to share some sort of timeline / milestone path for funding and progress toward production. Instead, they dropped a huge elephant in the room with the lack of mention of Elaphe as their hub motor supplier or how they are addressing the hub motors. The hub motors are a critical component to the vehicle. Elaphe was doing extensive testing of their motors. While the Aptera motor is a joint development with Aptera and Elaphe, will it still have the testing and reliability that was promised by Elaphe? A delay with the hub motors could really result in production delays. Is this why Aptera is not going to start production at 40 per day as they said. (Yes, I know that Chris said that it might take a month or two to get to the full 40 per day but they wanted to start at that point. If they don't have motors or they don't have battery packs, vehicles will not be delivered. Their cell welding video was horribly slow unless they have lots of parallel robots running. At 2916 cells, they need to weld each cell at a rate of 0.2s. They are not close to that volume.)

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

Thank you for viewing My Aptera Journey video and your comments. I can only speak with some confidence on the financial points. Closing a deal with an investment bank will take a few months I believe. When I close a public bond issuance it’s normally 3 to 4 months before the wire hits the bank. It is unclear if US capital will be placing some of their own money or raising funds externally, my guess there will be a combination of both at a ratio of like 8% US Capital house cash and 92% externally raised by US Capitol. US Capital can use private equity markets to raise these funds and it appears they have a solid track record in being successful and doing this. It’s actually way different because US Capitol has a deep network. It should be able to raise these funds relatively quickly relative to what Aptera could do on their own. The current crowdfunding round is likely to bridge that gap of three months or so before funds from the U.S. Capital efforts hit the bank for Aptera. I have heard the scuttlebutt about Elaphe. That is about all I can say. I believe there are other international suppliers as well so from the broad perspective, I’m not terribly concerned about this. Elaphe may have taken a financial hit with the collapse of Lordstown. Charge on!

[@jeffcarlton3590]

Thanks, you mistakenly said 24,000 reservation holders. They have almost double that.

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

Oops. I just keep thinking several years of production. I should have double checked. Sorry.

[@shrimptopian3392]

​ Yes you have a habit of knowing things without knowing them 😂 Not a good trade if you are giving financial advice

[@aussieideasman8498]

@@shrimptopian3392 Don't worry about the 47k or the 24k - none of that matters; it's how many they sell that matters and nothing else on the financial side. On the utility of the product, it matters that it works well for people and that is highly questionable when you see the 5 fake prototypes and the one laughable PI.1. Respond to see if I am blocked?

[@shrimptopian3392]

@@aussieideasman8498 You are not blocked.

[@DemaGeek]

Thank you Rich!

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

You’re welcome

[@MaxSUNAAptera]

When they do an IPO, I hope it is a one share for one stock of SUNA.

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

I anticipate one share of pre-IPO Aptera will equal one share of SUNA. That would only change if they were a stock split or a reverse split. Charge on!

[@robertwakeman1679]

Thank you for the model did you get my address do not know if I sent it right love your perspective

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

No, I did not receive your address! Please, please email your address to me at [e-mail] Thanks! = Rich =

[@orlandoterrazas2179]

Thanks for the info Rich. What do you estimate Aptera's opening stock price will be when they go IPO?

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

Thank you for viewing, and thank you for the question. Let me ponder that. It will be in my next video. I have an old capitalization table leading to an IPO that I have to brush off and review. You have to make some estimates on the number of funding rounds before the IPO and the price increase with each round. There will be several more Aptera rounds before the IPO, I believe. And, of course, market timing makes an impact on pricing as well - receptive markets price higher than markets that are not as receptive. It will only be closer to IPO time when we can bake in market conditions. It did give me some confidence recently when I viewed Aptera’s most recent funding plan (in the investor webinar) that pretty much matched what I was thinking in terms of funding needed.

[@adimchionyenadum2962]

And please when you make the video, explain to us what a split stock is and the possibilities of Aptera doing one at IPO. But please explain it as you would to a six-year old. Many out there assume everybody is an expert in their fields.

[@gr8dvd]

First - Missing from ALL discussions on Aptera’s relative advantages is context… user requirements (driving habits/needs) and charging availability (infrastructure and solar access. Thinking urban parking garage vs. rural homestead for charging; and thinking stop-n-go commute where aero efficiency is near meaningless. It’s a tough calculation b/c most of us have diverse needs. This is why discussion of fleet sales is encouraging (Chris A. mentioned in webinar); and think car sharing holds promise. Second - Your thoughts on potential dilution of shares with upcoming US-Capital deal… and eventual IPO. Understand Aptera retains right to create shares, and with unchanged company valuation but double the shares (for example) this would half the current share value. Any thoughts if/how current shareholders may fare with forthcoming US-C deal and SUNA IPO?

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

Thanks for viewing My Aptera Journey video, and your insightful comments. Some great comments from you about use cases, thank you. I can definitely see intercity delivery services like medical couriers being a popular demand driver for this vehicle. It will certainly excel at freeway speeds. That suggests fleet sales could be profitable. Regarding US Capitol and IPO stock prices and valuations, I’ll respond to that question in my next video… by popular demand! Charge on!

[@gr8dvd]

@@Rich1Rodriguez Look forward to it (next video) hopefully b4 June 30. 😉 Brief footnote to my prior long post… while little aero advantage in traffic, low weight build eg, carbon body - remains advantageous.

[@emorphous2]

Vanderhall is an autocycle, which is not a motorcycle; you only have to wear a helmet in certain states. Also, there is an optional roof. So the choice is not clear yet. Apterra will probably be better than Vanderhall if someone would please answer how much power it has. I'm glad to see a 4 second 0-60, but early videos showed it struggle then overheat trying to go up a hill with 2 people in it. How much does the performance suffer when there's weight in the car?

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

Thanks for viewing My Aptera Journey. The Vanderhall would be awesome if you could store the roof in/on the car someplace. I know, though, rear wheel drive three wheelers may have stability issues. The Aptera video you watched where the car had difficulty climbing a hill was due to a cooling system that had not been properly connected - it was easily fixed. The Elaphe in-wheel motors, in the AWD configuration, have 150 kW / 200 hp of power. Enough to make this lightweight carbon fiber car tremendously fast. Charge on!

[@bobhellman8676]

A Vanderhall is front wheel drive.

[@TneoAI]

Who's making the Hub motors? Chris A did not talk about Elaphe being a partner in the last Aptera Investors webinar.

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

To the best of my knowledge, it is still Elaphe. There are several global manufacturers for Aptera could utilize.

[@shrimptopian3392]

Did you take a look at elaphe's website, the information is 2 years old, saying they are producing for lightyear and lordstown, both bankrupt. And elaphe is completely disappeared from aptera website Do some research

[@adimchionyenadum2962]

That has been clarified in the recent Q/A with investors. They are having some issues with Elahpe and are making alternative arrangements.

[@IDNHANTU2day]

What's the difference between an electrical engineer and a trained electrical engineer?

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

I have been trained as en electrical engineer, and have practiced as an engineer. Mostly microcontrollers and communication systems. However, because I no longer practice I like to say that I’m a trained electrical engineer. Though sometimes I still say I am an engineer Perhaps it’s more accurate to say I’m an electrical engineer that no longer practices. I’m in finance now.

[@adimchionyenadum2962]

In many parts of the world people fake all types of professions with being. Yes, it's good he clarifies he is a trained electrical engineer and not a quack.

[@gmv0553]

A helmet is only required in certain states for the open 3 wheelers.

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

Thank you for viewing and thank you for your comments. You are correct, helmets are only required in some states for the Vanderhall (and similar vehicles) not all states. Charge on!

[@Rang62455]

@@Rich1Rodriguez unfortunately Washington state is one of the states that require a motorcycle license. I hope it will change before delivery.

[@garywozniak7742]

Massachusetts is pretty tight ...ed with their helmet laws. If I recall the was an effort to drop the requirement for enclosed autocycles but it failed.

[@shrimptopian3392]

You can count to 4, that's the most positive i have to say, congratulations 🎉

[@ronfarnsworth7074]

Do you disagree with the 4 issues?

[@shrimptopian3392]

@@ronfarnsworth7074 I really don't like this guy, he only does it for the referrals, even if it might mean people will lose a lot of money

[@andromedach]

Key here is, if you want a three wheeled vehicle. A market segment that has never had large scale success. The cited ICE samples are all marketed to motorcyclist and similar enthusiasts and the cycle based solutions are all about city mobility where the Aptera will fail given its ridiculous size. Any price comparison to existing EVs is a pointless exercise since Aptera refuses to stand being their price on the website. Given they claim to know how many it takes to be profitable that in turn means they know exactly what they need to sell those six thousand for. So which is it? Do they know or are they lying again? So until you get in writing the actual price of an Aptera your comparisons are meaningless. You managed to ignore the Citreon e-C3 and expected Jeep variant the US will get. You also ignored the Equinox. Aptera will not offer the safety of any of the vehicles you compared it to. The market certainly desires lower priced EVs but the market has never shown any interest in three wheeled vehicles nor are two seat vehicles popular across all segments of the auto market. Simply put, Aptera will be a niche vehicle and unless it significantly undercuts in price the current EV market it will not enjoy large sales numbers.

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

Thank you for viewing and thank you for your great comments. It was not my goal to make a comprehensive inventory of either three wheeled vehicles or low-cost electrics, but just to provide a survey. I am also an insightful skeptic of the breakeven numbers Aptera has offered, as I am aware of how difficult it is to provide those estimates as they are in the future and so much is yet unknown, so I give them space to allow them to refine those numbers as they move forward. I also acknowledge it is unclear on what the sales volumes will be for the Apter. Pre-ordered demand is suggestive it will sell very well. I happily look forward to receiving mine, as many other thousands do. Charge on.

[@Fairburne69]

"Aptera will not offer the safety of any of the vehicles you compared it to." We do not know this yet. The crash tests have not been done. You might be right and you might be wrong. Isn't it just better to say we don't know how safe the car will be? We humans hate saying I don't know. We prefer to guess. "The market certainly desires lower priced EVs" I agree "The market has never shown any interest in three wheeled vehicles nor are two seat vehicles popular across all segments of the auto market." I agree "Simply put, Aptera will be a niche vehicle" I agree "unless it significantly undercuts in price the current EV market it will not enjoy large sales numbers." I sort of agree. It depends on what you mean by large sale numbers. 10,000, 100,000, 1,000,000 or 10,000,000? I'm thinking/guessing the Aptera will be around the 50,000 vehicles per year similar to a Corvette for example which was 53,785 units produced. I would consider 50k a nice vehicle and not large scale. A $35,000 price tag may help it but I doubt it.

[@shrimptopian3392]

If it ever will be made you can ad 10k or more to the current price. The current price was made up in 2019 and was unrealistic then.....

[@Michael-ep7lx]

Let me know when they actually build something and deliver it to customers.

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

I will try to remember this, but I get so many comments. I cannot promise this Keep watching for updates.