vPub Live - Whisky Predictions 2025

[@Aqvavitae]

Speedy Timestamps Timestamps: 0:00 - Opening 1:41 - Brief intro to topic 8:18 - Welcoming in the lounge 16:15 - Feedback from the community for 2025 20:16 - Five markers of our whisky in 2025 25:30 - Community Poll results: 30:35 - How much time have we spent around whisky? 49:36 - How much knowledge do we think we've gathered? 1:11:04 - What mood are we feeling for 2025? 1:21:06 - Our perspective on the state of whisky 1:34:16 - What about whisky prices in 2025? 1:54:33 - Summarising our thoughts on 2025 2:05:25 - Quiz at the End

[@tomasandersson6253]

I was a newbie five years ago, and your approach was as good then as it is now and you don't need to change anything

[@NZDave]

Whatever outcomes, whisky is far more enjoyable being part of this community - Cheers Roy.

[@Aqvavitae]

I'll raise a wee glass to that!

[@ZacChastain]

Caught it on the replay and got my first ever !!! This makes perfect sense as in my whisky library Ardbeg and Glenmorangie rank #1 and #2 in bottle count, respectively. Time to run around the living room waving my shirt over my head!

[@SteveHB59]

Been looking forward to watching the first Vpub for the, on replay in Western Australia

[@johnvanderborght6800]

At the time of the vPub I had bought no bottles yet. But yesterday I stopped by the Thompson Brothers shop and bought 2 bottles.😊 I have about a dozen here in Scotland. I’ll probably stay around that. In the US i have 110. I can see that shrinking as I shrink my collection to only be the ones I truly love. Less experimentation in 2025. Last year I bought 33 bottles. This year I expect it will be less.

[@pfalzgraf7527]

Thanks for the great, interesting vPub! 9/10 in the quizz, no. 6 threw me off.

[@GeoffreyBangers]

Glad to be back in the vPub with you, Roy! Loved the topic and the way trends were presented. I'm very hopeful prices in the States don't jump too high. I've already noticed a little uptick here and there. Anyway, here's to a wonderful 2025 with the barflies! Cheers!

[@dominicfyfe2398]

Catching up on the replay, I find the marketing question fascinating and worth reminding ourselves - if we step back in time - how 19th century blends were sold: “Fine Old Special”, “Finest Very Old” etc. Has what’s gone around, come around? Seek out ‘The Art of Whisky’ (the best book Jim Murray ever produced) for a salutary reminder of the industry’s cynical tricks. They might be more sophisticated today but it’s the same old bollocks.

[@hamo4558]

Very interesting vPub Roy. You grabbed my attention when as a long term whisky drinker, the knowledge became of interest ( to whisky botherer level ) when covid came along. Thats when I started with the vPub, Ralfy & all the others. I've never been so promiscous since. BTW, Overeem is a great aussie drop, their Port Cask is sensational. Wish you could try more Aussie whiskies, maybe you need to come over ?

[@Aqvavitae]

Glad to have you here buddy! I think Aussie malts and spirits are a wee bit like American malts, they don't often travel. I know you see the same in the opposite direction with some of the whiskies we share here, but awareness helps us keep our eyes open for the celebrated stuff.

[@hellswidd4628]

Great Vpub to start the year! Cheers Roy! Much love as always from the two of us

[@brucebernauer711]

Well done on your 10 Hellen.

[@Aqvavitae]

Great to have you fresh, ready and scoring 10s for the start of another year!

[@tommysimpsonandtheloadeddice]

Yes and thank you, Roy. We only buy known quality from integrity distilleries in 2025.

[@Aqvavitae]

Aye. We're already there, how much of the consumer majority will follow us? Cheers Tommy

[@DominikK45]

I intend to reduce my bottle purchases by at least 90% this year, possibly longer. Auctions only. Despite spending more time on researching new releases before buying, I have been increasingly disappointed by them in the past year.

[@Aqvavitae]

That is a shame (the disappointment, not the decision). I've found some excellent bottles in 2024, but I suspect there's better stuff on the horizon while these stocks grow and mature. When might they arrive and what might they be? I hope you're back in a buying mood when it happens Dominik and thanks for being here.

[@craigfalconer6591]

Really interesting video! The market dip has caused a lot of negativity to surface when years back there was only optimism, which I hope will change this 2025. I suspect that this is not helping bring people into whisky, which is making the situation worse. I'll be buying whisky as usual in the face of all this negativity, stay enthusiastic and share drams with friends. Hopefully more people will shelf the bad vibes and enjoy whisky despite the slump. There are plenty of great bottles out there, and the industry deserves support.

[@brucebernauer711]

Hi Roy, yes, 7 bottles in already this year. I get most of my Whisky on-line, and order 3 or more at a time to get free delivery. (I'm on the age pension, so have a limited Whisky budget.) I'm waiting on delivery of 2 Tomatin 12 yo, 1 Glencadam 10 yo, and in a separate order, 3 Glencadam Res. Andalucia. Jura 10, on offer, from a bricks and mortar. I'm always on the lookout for good Whisky at a good price. Slainte Mhath.

[@Aqvavitae]

I've not really been in a buying mood for a few weeks and I think I'm shocked myself to see the only thing I've bought was a bottle of Armagnac, tasty but not quite able to supplant whisky. I'm sure things will change though... Thanks for joining in once more Bruce!

[@carlossandiego7925]

Happy New Year Roy and all the Barflies. Timely topic. I’m seeing good bargains on indies for the first time in years so that’s where I may be turning my attention. In bourbon the bargain products are getting cheaper but the “premium” ones are staying pricey. I wonder if the same will be true for scotch.

[@Aqvavitae]

Let's hope things flow a little back in our direction Carlos, great to have you catching it again!

[@MartinGwyn]

That was a great watch, thanks. I think the point you made right at the start was key, whisky enthusiasts like ourselves are a very small proportion of whisky drinkers generally and we don't move the dial as much as we would like with the big corporate operations. We are of course important to the small/newer distilleries and the independent bottlers and I think they are the ones that will suffer in any reduction in demand rather than the corporate operations. The truth is they have been just as guilty as price hiking and to be honest we have been guilty of paying the silly prices. Many of the smaller outfits will have established or expanded with the cheap money and the profits from the overpricing and it will be tough for them going forward. Luckily for us there are enough producers that have kept it real over the past few years with good whisky and sensible pricing and are set to survive any slowdown. Signatory in particular as you pointed out, are ahead of the curve with their 100 proof range, reducing inventory, generating income and recruiting plenty of new customers. Happy new year to everyone.

[@bobsander4589]

Great to have the vpub back! Really interesting subjects as always. Catching this on replay. My aim is to drastically reduce buying new bottles in 2025 and resist the urge to follow up on new releases. That said, not sure how long i can ignore that Whittakers bottle. Sounds really good but have resisted so far.

[@Aqvavitae]

I'm having a wee sip now. Fruit bomb, hides its youth very well. Quite 'modern' in style, in the sense it seems to have enjoyed quite a long fermentation. Cheers Bob

[@PierreMoisan-vf2ze]

HNYear Roy Hard to forecast such market ( single malt is a small chunk of that market) but watch for the first big corporation to slowing down production the consumer fun will start then IMO they are all actually pushing their cash-flow at the limit Usually Small guys with lower overheads will focus on quality and survive the storm with innovative moves … Cheers 🥃

[@Aqvavitae]

They take a long time to make decisions. The effects of those decisions take a long time to trickle through. Think of Diageo in 2022 restricting cask sales and preventing their maltings in Port Ellen from supplying any outside distilleries. I wonder how long those decisions will remain relevant? We will see changes, but right now there's a lot of short term sugar hits and patches being applied before the big calls need to be made. Good to have you sipping along while we watch on Pierre

[@rkostyantyn]

I'm from Ukraine and this year I planned to significantly reduce my whisky purchases. Only if it is something special, or an incredibly good price. But I have already ordered 3 bottles of the Signature 100 Proof series 😅Smart consumption does not work))

[@daveinbv8387]

Not a problem, I should have read the email more closely. I'll be looking forward to the next one.👍

[@TripleBerg]

I hope Ingvar returns to discuss the industry.

[@Aqvavitae]

Me too - any topic would be good for Ingvar

[@TripleBerg]

@@Aqvavitae Yes, imagine a vPub with Ingvar and Ralphy. What a discussion that would be!😊

[@davidowen2834]

Hi Roy and HNY. Watched the replay Friday and enjoyed it immensely, very interesting indeed. For me this year, don’t need no more whisky really,got more than enough so I’ll just wait and see what’s being released. Mind you I ask myself every year and that is when is Arran going to bring back their 14? Slàinte Roy

[@Aqvavitae]

Starting to wonder if they'll even bother, but I'd love them to. I do have a small concern that, if they did, we'd have a much more cask-led experience, I think the beauty of the old 14 was that it still had spirit balance. Thanks for picking it up as always David!

[@majornut9728]

As usual a interesting vPub. I overaccumulated a little bit last year and have to clear a few bottles first before stocking up. With that said I have a few bottles I want to buy this year. I will be looking more at IB (hoping Thompson Bros. will come to Sweden) and continuing my Caol Ila and Benrinnes journey this year as we well as searching for good blends. Happy New Year @Aqvavitae!

[@majornut9728]

Oh, I forgot. The welcome and inclusivness of this community has been tremendous. I feel very comfortable here and on FB to share my experiences and opinions. I now feel comfortable to voice my opinion in other places as well within the whisky sphere. Thank you for that!

[@WhiskyJason]

only 7 out of 10 - Happy New Year 2025!!

[@Jan-Sietze]

I think young people drop out after their first bottle of Queen Margot whisky or similar blend; it doesn't make enough of an impression to buy a bottle of a more expensive quality and discover what a Single Malt can do.

[@gariochsionnach2608]

... whiskys in my part of the globe have been too too expensive, standard Scotch prices have almost doubled!!! With over 100 bottles in my stash I ain't buying anymore for 2 years.

[@Aqvavitae]

I hope things return to normal for you - in the meantime - enjoy that stash!

[@gariochsionnach2608]

@@Aqvavitae Im! Thank you very much😄

[@TripleBerg]

I buy much less now but open for special find. 1:22:20

[@Aqvavitae]

Special finds are the thing that keeps us coming back! Cheers TB

[@Owyn1993]

I don't think prices will go down. Maybe retailers will offer 10% discount vouchers and things like last year. I think prices will stay the same and the distilleries will let inflation make the prices seem more reasonable.

[@daveinbv8387]

Where was this poll your speaking of? I missed it

[@Aqvavitae]

Sorry Dave, I'll share the next one wider and further with a bit more notice. Never done this idea like this before, but it'll be useful for future topics. Cheers

[@The.Epicurean]

Are newbies and box fresh people actually searching out whisky content, that's a deep dive (tbh), or are they looking for "beginners' guide to whisky" type stuff?