Are the Charts Drifting From Soft-Landing Script?

[@Rodriguezpaul-9]

I Hit 110k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject. thanks to Katherine Storch for helping me achieve this.

[@carolynvo7802]

The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.

[@DaveCulbertson]

You trade with Katherine Storch too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

[@Scottweeier846]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@Nguyenvictory83]

I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much.

[@Rodriguezpaul-9]

she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name

[@yeahboi7562]

As always, much appreciative of your weekly market updates. Have a good weekend, Chris

[@hoddtoward]

This makes me sleep better at night, thanks!

[@ishanphd6690]

just Outstanding. been following and watching update every weekend. thank you!

[@martian9999]

I think Chris is saying that in case of a 1987 crash, we're still OK, as long as the SPY doesn't plunge below its 200W-MA. Yikes! As much as I think these videos are fantastic -- really well made, with a wealth of useful information, and an abundance of investing wisdom -- I'd rather be prepared for a 1987 event, instead of just reacting after the horrible fact. Are there no indicators out there that could help? For instance, Marty Zweig famously called the 1987 crash two days in advance... what about his put-call ratio?

[@rcbturbine9]

A master class! Outstanding.

[@bobs8976]

thanks for the weekly videos

[@michaelj.pasley5283]

I commented a year ago when we were at 4000 that we are going to 6000 within 2 years. I revise my target now to 6500 within the next 12 months. Good luck out there traders and investors.

[@mmmom6469]

Forever bull; all in buy

[@afonsodeportugal]

@@mmmom6469 It's not "forever". It's just until the market conditions deteriorate significantly. The thing is that "deteriorate significantly" differs from investor to investor.

[@marcusbrown6326]

Thank you for your update.

[@flyshacker]

Excellent analysis! Solid conclusions with no attempt at making predictions. Watching Chris’s weekly videos is like putting on my eyeglasses - everything becomes crystal clear! 👓👍

[@GaneshD123]

Thank you Chris and Kathy - great work!

[@root123]

Fantastic video analysis as always

[@aliasoma]

Chris, do you consider indicators like RSI when charting or do you primarily use vwap and moving averages? I ask because the monthly SPX chart has a negative divergence on the RSI that looks potentially ominous. We could definitely just chop sideways for a long time to smooth that out, which makes me think that we're in a mini tech bubble that peaks and resolves faster than 2000.

[@beau6113]

Thank you!

[@kingtigercrownestate9102]

👍 Thanks again!

[@dianasong4594]

thank u very much.

[@boombustinvest]

... but we have never had 13 years of ZIRP that was then turned on it's head as we have now. How much additional risk is there in the markets due to this fact? The post-covid liquidity is still sloshing around keeping the secular bull in tact, but the normalisation of interest rates from ZIRP is still an unknown?

[@sivullinen2324]

Just wondering why Buffet is piling a lot of cash🤔 maybe not just reflecting on charts but anticipating market behaviors.

[@TheJohnb35711]

Probably because hes ancient

[@afonsodeportugal]

Buffett has a colossal amount of assets to manage, so he can't afford to wait for a crash to sell, as he wouldn't be able to get rid of millions and millions of stocks quickly. We, average retail investors, have much more flexibility. For example, I can liquidate my entire portfolio in less than 15 mins, maybe up to half-an-hour in the worst case scenario. And I can do so using only limit orders, which take longer to be fulfilled than market/stop loss orders. Still, the fact that he has such a gigantic pile of cash ($276,9 B) serves as a warning: we must remain vigilant and be prepared to sell at any time.

[@davidpalmo6050]

Buffet is a value investor. Is not easy to see value anyway in this market. Everything seem to be overpriced. He knows some stocks will crash a little and then he will buy more. I’m 50% in t bills just like buffet 😊

[@beau6113]

I'm curious--you discuss the 95-00 time period a lot, but almost never visit the 03-07/08/09 time period. I wonder what the headlines and charts looked like in the summer of 2007.

[@martian9999]

Plenty of moving average crossovers in Q3 and Q4 2007 for the SPY going downwards. And meanwhile, TLT was on an uptrend. A clear warning picture.

[@sunburnfm]

I always appreciate your sober weekly analysis.

[@johnmason9883]

Thanks again for the great analysis.

[@georgegale6084]

I love that you keep the focus on what to look out for. And then hash it directly with the current situation.

[@ifern4545]

Really enjoy this vids every weekend, well presented, lots of facts, no opinions. Thanks and have a great weekend.

[@johnnolan2557]

The whole report is opinionated!!!

[@jobr641]

Newbie question. Simple moving average vs exponential moving average. Which should I use? Does it matter.

[@ThatonedudeCR12956]

Use EMA for the short period. For example if you use 8 day and 13 day, you will use ema on 8 and sma on 13. Hope that helps

[@tonymartucci7097]

Thanks

[@cyb32011]

Love it Chris!!! Solid data

[@afonsodeportugal]

Magnificent video, as always. You, Sir, have my utmost gratitude!

[@Chronicheaven]

I love how you say "flexible, unbiased and open mind" at the end of your videos. 👍 ... Perhaps start playing a bass line, just before you say that at the end... Like Les claypool Poppin off rt into "flexible..... Mind"...

[@evilzzzability]

Everything is lining up for a much tougher period over the next year or so imo. AAII asset allocation looks like it's going to run at >70% equity for the 4th consecutive month - extremely rare level of sentiment. Yield curve un-inversion and the start of the easing cycle have all historically pointed to a tougher period ahead.

[@markgagielo9947]

Historically true, but this market has been defying all odds. The job data on Sept 6 should be telling Any thoughts

[@17jnewman]

Thanks for the great content

[@MaryWerner-d3g]

Hintz Trace

[@JamesGodish]

Great information thanks!

[@cato451]

Chart readers crack me up.

[@martian9999]

why?

[@mjbucar]

Thank you Chris.

[@wolfiecaps_]

Outstanding

[@eccentricccc]

if you watch his 2022 videos especially during march he kept trying to predict a bottom despite it looking like 2008/2001 on his moving averages chart. Because it was near the 200 day moving average. So despite it looking like it's about to crash he kept trying to call a bottom with "other" indicators. This dude is a delusional bull. Which means his analysis works very well during bull market runs, not so much when we go into a bear market. Not saying we are...

[@eccentricccc]

@@marekan1410 The trend was DOWN in 2022. And he kept trying to call a bottom using other indicators. Go watch his videos...

[@martian9999]

@@eccentricccc which one, which date do you refer to? I can't find anything that supports your theory.

[@SpenderEmma-j7g]

Harris Courts

[@eccentricccc]

You must have missed the MASSIVE record amount of move in TLT right now... Everyone and their grandma are long TLT. Look at the bloomberg chart.

[@eccentricccc]

@@marekan1410 Record high long futures bond. RECORD AMOUNT. Go find it yourself if you can't that means you probably don't know what is going on in the market at all.

[@joewonsettler6439]

Chris and Kathy, As I have mentioned before, the market analysis work and conclusions you and your team develop in these weekly videos is absolutely outstanding! Thank you for all of your hard ongoing research.

[@stevenmix3723]

To conclude that we look most like 1995 today just based on the charts is absurd, because beyond the charts, conditions are polar opposite of 1995. From end of war to beginning of war, from controlled debt to uncontrolled debt, from declining rates to rising rates, from low Price to Sales to high Price to Sales, from cohesive society to fractured society, from Second Turning to Fourth Turning. Investing in today's market based on averages charts is just reckless fantasy optimism. I take just the fact of recent proliferation of all these technical trader video channels by money managers as a huge red flag. Every one of them presumes they are going to ride the highs safely into prosperity on the margin, and then get all their subscribers out in time. So then, who will be left to be holding the empty bag, after everybody got out in time?

[@svenkateswaran7516]

How much have you underperformed the S&P in the last 6-8 years?

[@stevenmix3723]

@@svenkateswaran7516 I am taking your assumption that every rational critic of the hyper-bull at the top must be a permabear, as yet another sign of a dangerous market top. This is like when I told people to sell in March 2000, and they just said, "Why?"

[@afonsodeportugal]

@@stevenmix3723 The only problem with your reasoning, which sounds rational and fair on the surface, is that many other people have been saying similar stuff since 2011. Imagine how much money we would have lost if we had listened to those folks and stayed out of the markets during the last decade! Also, this channel has been around since 2010... You may be right. There might be a stock market crash at the turn of the corner. But until it happens, there's little reason for the average retail investor to get out of the market.

[@natevanderw]

@@stevenmix3723 So what's your plan? Here is mine. September is tough, usually a choppy or bear market historically, so writing covered calls around spy 570. At spy 580 (maybe Nov 2024?). I will buy a few spy 2026 (hopefully when the vix is low) put leaps at around that combine for 1.5 delta. This will hurt gains if s and p 500 continue to melt up. I might add one more if spy every 20 points up spy goes to stay at around 1.5 delta. Timing the market hurts

[@boombustinvest]

... so 'the market' might not be worried about a recession and not priced it in yet... but 'the market' could well be wrong. The market is pricing in "it's different this time".. ignoring accelerating unemployment? claiming the Sahm rule is no longer relevant? ... setting itself up for a fall with a strong dose of complacency?

[@MaoParlee-l3c]

Davis Inlet

[@tradingwithwill7214]

Many permabears make fun of you each week but the markets keep going up even after recent pullback. Also you keep indicating that tech remains the strongest (SMH etc) in terms of the ratio charts. And they aren't aware of your risk mitigation strategies as things weaken.

[@VinNewYork-zv9rn]

Your formula does not works for 1987 and 2020

[@PhilipMorris511]

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Michelle Stewart.

[@JeanethDelgado231]

Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

[@HassanAmeen350]

She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families in United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states

[@LucyNicole42]

You trade with Michelle Stewart too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

[@PhilipMorris511]

she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name

[@PhilipMorris511]

STEWART340 💯.. that's it

[@markgagielo9947]

You do great work as you have navigated this market superbly, and I don't throw words like this easily A+

[@mmlg24]

It's a great analysis, and it all comes down to the fact nobody knows what the markets will do next day, next month, next year. We all must be well versed in a wide variety of trading strategies including taking profits early on short term swings, not touching very long term investments unless bear market is here.

[@ATULSHAH-n6l]

He missed the biggest opportunity by not buying heavily into the flash crash in Aug. Big Big mistake!

[@Yahniboy]

That should come from you at that moment which it was Monday morning. I bought hand over fist with the rest of my money I had available and so far all those positions are way positive

[@ATULSHAH-n6l]

@@Yahniboy same here, but this guy who is a perma bull got scared and ran away, now he is touting for clients to invest 0.5M.

[@ULTRATURBOJEZUS]

I remember that he stated CCM sold assets at the bottom of the correction. He didn't just miss it. He sold at the lowest point. And now he has new openings for clients lol

[@chatgpt-n8r]

your analysis is flawed since in 80 84 95 and 98 the avg P/E was 15-20. It's now 35 due to all the past money printing.

[@tradingwithwill7214]

many reasons avg P/E ratios are higher now than in 80s/90s ie higher growth, lower interest rates from 80s etc.

[@chatgpt-n8r]

@@tradingwithwill7214 only 1 reason, QE, it doesn't matter why, it only matters that they are the 2nd highest they have ever been in history of markets.

[@YOLO-IN]

I disagree :)

[@woodentoyscom]

I’ll save you some time. He comes to the same conclusion every video. 😂

[@johnnolan2557]

You're exactly right!

[@Yahniboy]

You mean six months out and one year out we are positive?