Are the Tories about to come THIRD? | LBC analysis

Rishi Sunak has denied suggestions the Conservatives will come in third place behind Reform UK at the general election, following a new poll.
The prime minister said there was plenty of time for a “comeback” and the choice between the Tories and Labour will “crystallise for people between now and polling day”.
His comments come after a demoralising YouGov poll for the PM which has Nigel Farage’s party at 19 per cent and the Conservatives on 18 per cent in voting intention.
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[@hg82met]

They should be confined to the dustbin of history. Zero seats!

[@1erkyrob2]

The Tories should be in 5th.

[@XTRAIT-em4rx]

The Tories should be dissolved

[@paulchadwick9419]

I hope they are Lib Dems as the opposition, when it comes to seats reform will probably finish 8th

[@anonomous8719]

@@paulchadwick9419Lib dems don’t have a plan

[@RobertJones-ku4fg]

1 seat is a seat too many for the Tories !

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

It'll be 1 more than Reform get.

[@jsd8981]

14 years of karma coming back to visit the Cons / Tory Party...

[@SuzanneJones-qy3zh]

Bye bye tories

[@BlaizeV]

I really hope the Lib Dems come second. It would be the earthquake result this country needs. It'll break the two party system. I still want Labour to win and by alot but the idea of Lib Dems being the official opposition changes this country dramtically.

[@GregOrCreg]

Best possible case scenario, for sure. A decent Labour majority, and a relatively progressive party, particularly on world affairs, to keep them honest, as His Majesty's Official Opposition. The only issue is the poor finances and the length of time it will take for an economic recovery. Labour and the Libs will be blamed from day one for anything that isn't working.

[@ThomasKing19933]

Farage has taken the Tories place. That speaks volumes about just how bad they have been.

[@paulchadwick9419]

Only on one poll over all they are way behind the conservatives

[@mintywebb]

No he hasn't. They will get one seat, if they're lucky. It's first oast the post, none of the UKIP list nonsense.

[@fylbike]

Only in the opinion polls. They met get more of the popular vote, but I bet far less seats

[@mogzybuster]

Libdems will get more seats than the company called Reform 'Party'

[@Ngamer834]

Depends how that translates into seats

[@rossilavery]

STOP SAYING FEET TO THE FIRE

[@MrBizteck]

Please please make the Lib dems the opposition.

[@XTRAIT-em4rx]

Tom's going to be in despair if the Tories come third.

[@paulchadwick9419]

They won’t come 3rd if they do it will be Lib Dems second not Reform

[@DavidJohnson-yg8qm]

They won't come third, don't worry, they will come last.

[@paulchadwick9419]

@@DavidJohnson-yg8qmas bad as the tories are they will still get more seats than Reform

[@stanmore116]

Number of feet being 'held to the fire' reaches record levels. Metaphor abuse?

[@nickyleng6917]

Also arguably an overuse of "arguably".

[@monkeyboy8424]

The game is up for Ritchie Sunak - was he pretending all along....

[@navilight1094]

Think Natasha must have been paid per how many times she could say 'Hold their feet to the fire' for this piece!

[@russellmarriott9396]

How many fires and feet are there?

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

The best option for the Tories would be to conceed defeat now & save themselves a whole load of embarrassment on the 5th of July.

[@andrewcross5918]

Lib Dems. Cmon davey boy.

[@dean8282]

Free theme park access for all!

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

My dream team would be Labour in government with the LibDems as the main opposition party, the Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru alongside them & the Tories and Reform UK up in the public gallery.

[@itsBATSMENnotBATTERS]

That’s why we have this thing called democracy. Very unpopular with leftists. It’s where someone… can have a different opinion!! Christ you mean there are people who don’t believe in mass migration and climate alarmism?

[@Edward-cv2gw]

Cool so you want a one party state more or less. You certainly don't have Britain's best interests at heart.

[@EskimoTuffers]

How’s that one party ! Lol 2 parties willing to sit down and work together building a better country

[@breamoreboy]

That suggestion worries me, as having the Tories and Reform UK so close to government isn't in the nation's best interests.

[@itsBATSMENnotBATTERS]

We have this thing called democracy…

[@randomdaveUK]

Farage would be a dangerous leader of the opposition, but I'm fairly sure the Lib Dems would come 2nd not Reform.

[@storm21410]

I encourage tactical voting against the Conservatives everywhere except Clacton. I'd rather vote for a centre right candidate than Truss 2.0

[@paulchadwick9419]

Lib Dems would make a better opposition

[@RaRa-eu9mw]

The conservatives will come second, then lib dems, then SNP, then either Reform or Greens.

[@th8257]

Reform have zero chance of coming second in terms of seats. They'll be lucky if they get 3 seats at most.

[@paulchadwick9419]

@@RaRa-eu9mwI’ve got them coming 8th when it comes to seats Labour Conservative Lib Dems Greens SNP Plaid Cymru Independent Then Reform

[@keithfowler2013]

80 majority,last time. I think its fair to say the Conservative party ran amok !!!

[@alanc4407]

Can she stop saying 'holding feet to the fire'. Lost track of how often she said it......

[@miketemple876]

I’m sorry but I don’t think this is going to be a thing. Labour will win but I suspect the big switch from Tory to reform wont actually happen. It’s not as if Tories haven’t lied to pollsters before

[@user-hl1ex6py8l]

Yeah I get the feeling at the end of the day the Tories will get between 140 and 180 seats. It'll be comparable to 97 but not a complete collapse.

[@enigmabletchley6936]

They certainly deserve to come third. I've been of an age to vote for too many years and I honestly can't think of a single achievement of this government in 14 years. All at the same time as trotting out the mantra that they are doing 'what the British public want'. The last 5 years have been the worst: a charlatan, a lettuce and a man so rich he has no concept of the struggles of ordinary sky subscribers. Give us all a break and achieve the defeat you so richly deserve.

[@Silver-st2zq]

Totally agree.

[@rockallmusic]

Drinking game: take a shot every time you hear "hold their feet to the fire"

[@mickrap6001]

Is anybody going to be sober at the end of it.😵🥴🥴

[@jeffsimon9594]

I am hammered...

[@flyingdutchman3483]

I think that history will record that Brexit broke the Conservatives, and I think that even though UKIP and Reform pushed Brexit they will get off scot free because they did not negotiate the deal, and they will cover themselves as do some of the far right back benchers by saying it was not the right deal, even though when asked they can never state what their Brexit would look like.

[@FranzBieberkopf]

Yes, Farage and Reform get a remarkably easy ride from the media

[@edmurth]

“Who’s going to hold their feet to the fire?” Well once upon a time journalists did some of that, that was until most of the media became cheerleaders for their political chums.

[@jsd8981]

I would hate to be a Tory M.P after the General Election, cant wait to hear all the excuses and where all the blame is going to land , and there should be a fair bit of scndle as well...

[@kristaylor776]

They might come third by popular vote, but not by seats. There is no way Reform are getting 100+ seats. And then we get the FPTP/PR debate all over again.

[@VesiustheBoneCruncher]

This country has never had a PR debate. It had a referendum on AV, that is explicitly not PR.

[@nathanhardcastle1729]

With enough tactical voting the Lib Dems could get 60-75 seats, If the conservatives get less than 20% of the vote like some polls suggest they could easily end up with less than that.

[@kristaylor776]

​@@VesiustheBoneCruncher The Tories threw the Lib Dems the AV bone as a concession to the coalition, but the Lib Dems have wanted PR for decades, as have a lot of other people. The Tories were always dead set against it and so forced AV as opposed to PR because they knew AV had less chance of winning.

[@VesiustheBoneCruncher]

@@kristaylor776 absolutely. As a Lib Dem I can tell you STV was on page 88 of the 2010 manifesto. This was a far greater failure than tuition fees pledge - the one everyone should actually still be angry about. I know many people (myself included) who were heavily pro PR and voted against AV as incredibly, it’s a worse system than FPTP. A wasted golden opportunity.

[@bigtone1062]

Sad but correct

[@johnrussell3961]

The Tories and Farage should be the ones whose are held to account. Not Labour!

[@lordnoodle2146]

I believe "Hold to account" in this context would refer to future policies that labour would make. Like how Labour held Tories to account as opposition

[@dean8282]

Farage couldn't deliver a pizza

[@Rexel4th]

Reading comments on social media (a terrible idea, I know), a lot of Reform voters have yet to fully realise how the first past the post system works. 20% of the votes does not necessarily mean anywhere near 20% of the seats. The opposition is either going to be a much reduced group of Tories or, less likely, the Lib Dems.

[@ibukunogunfeitimi5645]

As reiterated by our leader, Keir Starmer, the Labour Party is a party of wealth creators. I am working hard and smartly round the clock to make DIMBSY INNOVATION the most valuable asset in UK corporate history to compete with one of the most valuable firms in the world. LP is thinking smartly to attract corporate investors to the UK.

[@ibukunogunfeitimi5645]

I am a supporter of Brexit, but I believe that the campaign and implementation of Brexit were very poorly executed. If we had voted to remain in the EU, the influx of low-income earners into the UK would have been much higher than it is now.

[@shoelessjoe428]

I can answer the title question! No. 15% support for Reform probably equals about 3 mp's.

[@katrinabryce]

Reform's support is very evenly distributed throughout the country, so 15% support means basically 15% in every seat, and you can never win a seat on that. Maybe they will win Clacton, but that is about it.

[@jonathanharms7589]

As far as majorities go, the bigger the better! We elect members to parliament, not parties and it is the duty of ALL MPs to hold government accountable. Parties exclude each other from policy development . This means that electing a lot of MPs for one party so it has a diverse membership with a broad range of views and backgrounds is probably the best way of ensuring a government is accountable and reflects broad community values. Certainly a more likely approach than electing a lot of morally bankrupt Tory opposition MPs so they can go on hectoring about mares nests from outside the tent anyway. Governments with small majorities are also too easily held to ransom by rouge party members or coalition partners, or irresponsible oppositions; while governments with big majorities can be disciplined and afford to lose the unworthy, but also can afford to listen to diverse voices. So for stable, inclusive government, vote for the landslide. Surf the Starma-nami!

[@zimri-lim8254]

100% the media would not be worrying about this were the boots of the two main parties on the other feet.

[@Trax777]

Clarke is such a Tory, you can see in her face shes uncomfortable with the position the tories are in. The Usherwood was impartial, i could never guess where he stood politically

[@colmgeiran3476]

If Rishi Sunak stands down? Surely, that's a given. Who would want to take that job?

[@SoFarSoGoodSoWhat14]

Penny Mordaunt from the looks of it

[@sam6399]

@@SoFarSoGoodSoWhat14 it is looking like she might lose her seat though.

[@SoFarSoGoodSoWhat14]

@@sam6399 maybe, we can only hope 😅

[@andrewcross5918]

He will be removed as leader of the Tory party before the count had finished on July 5th.

[@HamishM22]

Iain Dale and nick Ferrari as his deputy .

[@countgeekula9143]

I don't for a moment believe the Tories will come third. Certainly not to Reform. Polls never tell the full story.

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

They won't come third to Reform because Reform won't win sny seats, the Tories are more than likely going to come in third behind the LibDems. It's seats that count in Westminster not percentage of the votes in the polls, seats = votes on policies/laws trying to be put through parliament. No seats will means Reform won't get a say on anything in parliament.... thankfully. Hopefully the other parties will start to work together in the best interests of the country, we could certainly do with it & also rebuild the division the Tories have deliberately caused.

[@hannofranz7973]

The tories latest reason to be voted was based on being the useful vote for the main opposition party. Now, even that is turning against them being surpassed by Reform. It can get only worse and worse for them.

[@dereks1264]

I don't see the Lib-Dems winding up as the opposition ... but I've been wrong before.

[@dansegelov305]

I wouldn't be too sure. With FPTP, any vote share below 20% can result in wildly different outcomes. As it stands, Reform could have 18% and still win 0 seats, whilst the Lib Dems can have 15% and win 60 seats.

[@Tamaxlia]

Nobody has been arguing for a closer relationship with the EU? What about the SNP, you know, the third largest party in parliament…

[@stuartmiller2384]

Oh I do hope James Cleverly gets the job !

[@decimal1815]

Why is the Sunak government allowed to give contracts to his family business? How many government contracts have been awarded to Infosys? Why is this not the #1 story of the election campaign??

[@davidjupp961]

No one seemed to care in 2019

[@darthmali]

She really wants to see politicians getting their toes roasted. Get a new metaphor

[@SteveCyclistNo1]

Tories gonna lose to Count Binface 😂 nevermind Reform!

[@paulchadwick9419]

Reform are well behind Tories in the polls

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

I always get binface, Reform & the monster raving loonies mixed up.

[@annphillips1086]

@@user-ol6rd7pl5t Don't do that, you might vote for Reform by mistake!

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

@@annphillips1086 There is zero chance of that happening I can assure you.

[@BogdanGheorge-bc8xu]

>>>RISHI MUST RESIGN

[@jgalt155]

When someone mentions bawbaggery Farage always comes to mind .

[@jenfirth8032]

Could you end up with a coalition opposition- where are three opposition parties LDs, tories and SNP all end up with the same number of MPs and the tories have to bring in Farage to get a minority majority? I suppose mathematically it is possible?

[@japfourme381]

The Tories should be in third place, it’s nothing less than what they deserve, an 80 seat majority absolutely squandered! And what have they done to complete Brexit AFA!!

[@paulvoodini4378]

Never heard the phrase 'feet to the fire' before, but now I've heard it five times or more and I don't think I like it ;)

[@annphillips1086]

It's kinda gross, isn't it?

[@SplitFinn]

I can see former Tories joining the Lib Dems and shifting the party slightly to the right, becoming the successor to the Tories.

[@ericdurber3448]

As a LD member and on the Beverage wing of the party I would fight any movement to the Right ferociously, as would others. We had enough of that with Clegg and the orange book brigade. We see the party positioned as it was when Charles Kennedy was leader - slightly to the Left of Labour, after Blair had lurched the party to the Right.

[@TheOffkilter]

I think the question about the opposition being able to stop govt or really anything more than criticize them is moot. Labour is on track for a supermajority so they can just ignore the opposition largely, especially if its split between the Tories, Lib Dems and Reform with little uniting all three.

[@mattwright2964]

Lot of nonsense being talked. The Conservatives deserve to lose but Reform even though they are polling well are very unlikely to have any MPs and even if they had a few elected they would be totally new and suffer the problem with barking mad candidates pulled together at the last minute. They are not going to be forming an opposition of any serious kind. This is largely because we have a first past the post system. As has been pointed out the Lib Dems may form the opposition.

[@BusstterNutt]

Why is white-collar crime unreported.....?

[@UKD43]

Yes… Next question.

[@JohnShaw-zm2pc]

Sunak awarded is wife's company government contractors worth millions of pounds.

[@coppershark1973]

Feet to the fire! Feet to the fire! Feet to the fire! Feet to the fire! Feet to the fire! Feet to the fire! 👣 🔥

[@kevinpugh3291]

Who can afford fire these days?

[@stuartmelville5684]

one nice day dont make a summer .... i think news try make news out of news that really is not news lol right ?

[@paulchadwick9419]

They’ve been selective to get a story out but they’ve not mentioned the poll of polls which has Labour 42% Conservatives 22% Reform 14%

[@stuartmelville5684]

@@paulchadwick9419 exactly ty mate

[@JohnShaw-zm2pc]

After the election reform and the conservative party might merge together to make a new right-wing conservative party. Same old faces 😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮

[@samclegg6998]

With Labour moving further right I would actually prefer an opposition like the Libdems rather than one of the other two very right wing parties

[@ReeM-wz7bs]

Lib dems and greens as the opposition

[@Simalacrum]

Honestly I think the Lib Dems have had a great campaign - I'm a lot more sold by their campaign and policies than I have been by Labour's. Especially given that my new constituency is ultra-safe Labour, I don't feel compelled to vote tactically either

[@tombo1984]

The line that Farage is going to take over the Conservative Party is so pathetically trouble making and devoid of the facts I could only expect to hear it from LBC.

[@boogaloo4640]

He's said it himself. That's his aim. It wouldn't surprise me if he wins in Clacton, then crosses the floor.. Reform is just a vehicle for him

[@DavidJohnson-yg8qm]

If we vote in reform as our new government I believe it will invest in British jobs. I suspect the likes of RR will get major contracts in electricity generation, that's for starters, the Green energy stratagey will be wound down to a sensible level, (not scrapped) and our training will get a major boost in reskilling where required. If your read throughthe Contract to the British People, not a manifesto, the intension is for the country to benefit as a whole. We would only not vote for this party if we were completely stark raving mad. I see however that the media is doing its utmost to play down the whole proposal and still insist and supporting the 2 party system which will disasterously end up with Labour winning and they know that. Why would YOU vote for their agenda? Are you not adults and know the difference between right and wrong, or are you too far gone to care? If the second case is your situation do not vote as we do not want your loser government in power thank you.

[@markedwards9247]

What's your policy on tuition fees ? Never forgive ...

[@benwilson6145]

????????!

[@JohnShaw-zm2pc]

Vote conservative get conservative vote reform get right-wing conservatives. Vote change Labour you get Labour. 😅😅😅😅😅😅

[@catherinemartin6258]

They deserve nothing less plus reform won’t last long far right parties never do

[@vincentblack7467]

What do you think about hard left socialist who plan is to put in place intrenchment politics..

[@HamishM22]

Farage will leave reform due to disagreements and set up another trump like party , he's a political grifter, if he was in power NOTHING would change for the ordinary working man , can't say the same about his billionaire mates though.

[@HamishM22]

@@vincentblack7467 what do I think about hard left socialist entrenched politics ??? It's like a Unicorn it only exists in your mind . Just tell the truth what you really mean , your entitled to your opinion .

[@thehoodfab1]

Far right 😂

[@catherinemartin6258]

@@thehoodfab1 and you would say that reform are a centrist party 😂

[@wendyholland2339]

Now they are not about to the are second Tom come on Tom even you no that 19 is higher than 18 yes

[@12bigredd]

Lol folks think the tories gonna be the standard8 barerers for Labour lol😅🎉😂🎉

[@jsd8981]

I would hste to be a Tory M.P right now never mind after the General Election...scary stuff at least it keep the P 45 deparment buisy for a couple of days....

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

I would hate to be a Tory.

[@Skygrey2943]

It's okay, being an MP was just a second job. A little something to put on their CV.

[@StevenParrisWard]

Tories will come fourth

[@nicks4934]

Lib democrats for opposition ❤

[@riffraff9506]

Farage is no match for Starmer

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

Intellectually Farage is no match for a single celled organism.

[@itsBATSMENnotBATTERS]

Farage does him completely you’re right 😂

[@ehnowthen]

Starmer is no match for Farage!

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

Let's see on 5th of July which one is running yhe country & which one is an 8th time failed politician. Place your bets please!

[@user-wq6sz7vt3w]

Conservatism lives on in Labour!😂😂😂

[@motiveintentionsincerity]

Lib Dems, stop talking political propaganda tripe !

[@michaelblack1494]

Ngl Natasha is kinda cute tho

[@portman8909]

Would pipe

[@SoFarSoGoodSoWhat14]

They're trying to achieve get Nigel Farage more attention that he so desperately craves even though he already gets plenty

[@wendyholland2339]

Are you going on your facts again wrong

[@kazor1367]

This political editor is lovely

[@sphughes01]

It would be far better if the Greens came second. I would love to see them with say 50 to 80 seats. Let Labour take over 400 and then 50 to 80 from the Greens might see a truly radical parliament. The Tories can stumble along on 45 with the Lib Dems on a similar number. Actually they could join together again like they did in 2010 and have another love affair. Where is Nick Clegg by the way?

[@songscoops4205]

2nd or 3rd don't run the country....although I doubt 1st will 😂😂😂

[@TBFI_Botswana]

Natasha is not only very intelligent, she’s very pretty to boot. Am I allowed to say that in 2024?

[@jamiebee1231]

Yeah you can say anything

[@SuzanneJones-qy3zh]

Farage is a great match for starmer when will you lot get it into your he ads reform will not merge with tories

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

Irrelevant as Farage won't win a seat in parliament.

[@darrenbrians5930]

He thinks 4 MILLION immigrants every 3 years is too many. With Englands population density at 442km🤢. I agree with him myself.

[@dazjackson1972]

"Who's gonna hold their feet to the fire?" Don't make me laugh 😂. No "opposition" has held feet to the fire in living memory - they all believe (more or less) the same things.

[@Jonnyonthespot123]

You haven't listened to Prime Ministers Questions. You can throw all the accusations you want at the Tories, it means nothing when you get lies, slogans and more insults back from the Prime Minister of all people!

[@MiserableOldGits]

I hope farage makes it to position of opposition, he will make mincemeat of Wet Lettuce Starma, and Priministers Question Time will be the most entertaining show on TV !

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

Fartage isn't going to win a seat.

[@BrianFairlamb]

You mean the Ed Davy that threw the sub postmasters under the bus , great credentials.

[@alanarmer8069]

👍👍📗📗📗📗📗📗📗🎣👍👍