Are we Headed for a Recession? Discussion with George Gammon, Sahm Rule, inverted yield curve

Investor/entrepreneur George Gammon believes we're headed for a recession. All of the tell-tale signs from the Sahm Rule to the inverted yield curve seem to be there. However, some live callers disagree with Gammon's assessment leading to a lively and fierce debate. Join Josh Jalinski on this very special episode of The Financial Quarterback as he navigates the recent events in the world stock markets and explains what it could all mean for you.
Topics:
Interest Rates as Economic Indicators
George Gammon argues that the 10-year Treasury rate trading at 3.8% indicates current economic sentiment, suggesting that if growth and inflation expectations were higher, the rates would not be at this level.
Yield Curve Dynamics: The discussion explains the significance of the yield curve inversion and its historical accuracy in predicting recessions, emphasizing the difference between bear steepeners and bull steepeners.
Market Reactions: Market participants' actions, such as purchasing long-term Treasuries, reflect their expectations of future economic conditions, including potential recessions, as discussed by Josh Jalinski and others.
Impact of Fiscal Policies: The conversation highlights how fiscal spending and government policies influence economic trends, with debates on whether these measures lead to sustainable growth or merely temporary relief.
Consumer Confidence and Spending: Speakers note that consumer confidence and spending patterns are critical indicators of economic health, with current data suggesting mixed signals about the strength of the economy
Financial Institutions' Behavior: George Gammon argues that financial institutions' reluctance to lend to the real economy, preferring safer investments, indicates a lack of confidence in economic growth.
Investment Strategies: Josh Jalinski and George Gammon share their investment strategies in light of current economic conditions, including purchasing Treasuries and gold, and using call options on the NASDAQ
Not Legal or Tax advice, consult your advisor, and tax attorney. All investments involve risk.
Josh Jalinski serving as a financial advisor for 18 years and owner of Wealth Quarterback LLC for more information www.thefinanci...

[@wpetersen1081]

Joe didn't have to leave the call, he just knew he was losing and decided to jump off the ship!

[@theyoungnative93]

George is awesome!

[@financialquarterback]

love him!

[@MrJuanete12]

This made me realize how wrecked people are going to get when this crash occurs...

[@jimboslice4623]

Gammon laid the smack down 😮😅

[@markscannell865]

When the caller said "this time is different", that is when you know you can ignore him and he is a fool.

[@georgelien]

A very interesting conversation

[@thomaspark9062]

just goes to show that self-taught is highly under-rated or that school degrees are highly over-rated

[@funkspinna]

Well done, George.

[@ricks8127]

Talk about some out-of-touch callers. Yikes! When minimum wage rises by 25% that doesn't mean everyone else automatically gets a 25% raise. Seriously, read the room.

[@Christian_1605]

The guy at 24:00 is getting outsmarted by George..🤣

[@georgelien]

When was this recorded ? (1) New 10y notes were issued in the beginning of August (2) Increased demand for 10y notes is what drove down its yields

[@jaydee5447]

What’s your point?

[@financialquarterback]

it was recorded early Aug 2024

[@Chronicheaven]

Awesome show. I really enjoyed the debate, if you will. New sub, thank you 👍 I always listen to George, btw.

[@jaydee5447]

24:32 Caller argues this times it different then completely destroys his own argument 😂😂😂😂 Couldn’t make it up if I tried

[@Christian_1605]

So funny, George outsmarted him.. Lmao..🤣

[@alens18]

46:15 Caller says that "FED is kinda up against the wall..." and I had to laugh when I heard that, because that just means that he has no clue how FED functions from 2008 onward.

[@TomiAnneTimm]

And Jesus answered him, saying, It is written, That man shall not live by bread alone, but by every word of God.

[@JONINOTORUS]

Josh is correct, Sahm has always been a far-left progressive and is now willing to bend her rule before the election. It is painful to watch her rambling explanations for her reservation. Math, not statistics, is politically blind, stick with it.

[@louc3143]

Totally agree- rambling, incoherent and politically driven. It's embarrassing.

[@ryann8348]

No

[@anthonyhahn1497]

😢

[@conspiracyburger7516]

I’m covering my Nasdaq short at 4,000

[@Liluzibertgg]

Who is the guy that is just straight up arguing and cutting George off? Completely defeats the purpose of this podcast when we can’t even understand what points they’re trying to make.

[@jamessantiago6883]

Is Joe drunk?