Are We on a Collision Course with China? | Elbridge Colby

Will the US go to war with China over Taiwan? Most Americans have a hard time seeing that as a real possibility. Why should the US care about an island right off China’s mainland that’s smaller than its biggest national park?
Foreign policy expert Elbridge Colby, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, breaks down China’s plan to dominate the Eastern Hemisphere-starting with Taiwan-and then challenge US hegemony.
Colby is a co-founder and principal of the Marathon Initiative, a foreign policy think tank, and the author of The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict.
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Time stamps:
00:00 - Introduction
01:31 - What Taiwan’s recent elections mean
04:29 - Why is Taiwan worth defending?
10:30 - The US is on a collision course with China
13:32 - Is this all about semiconductors?
17:32 - Military strategy in a potential war over Taiwan
20:12 - Taiwan has been buying arms from the US for years
25:43 - Military preparedness across Asia

[@KGold53]

Colby is a well-known military industrial complex ally and warhawk, so he overstates the China threat. The Taiwan election, contrary to what he says here, changed nothing, except to signal that the voters are moving away from the more anti-China DPP, which received only 40% of the vote this time, versus 57% four years ago in the presidential election. A third party, the relatively new TPP, helped reduce the number of seats held by the DPP in the legislature by 10, from a majority to a minority with only 51 of 113 seats. The vast majority in Taiwan want the status quo, and do not want to formally declare independence. Colby wrote an article for Foreign Affairs magazine, titled “America Must Prepare for a War over Taiwan”. He advocated doubling the defense budget. He seems not to understand that peaceful coexistence with China is the result of diplomacy, not of the doubling of defense spending. But that’s his wheelhouse, a military mind first and foremost. No thanks to his prescriptions.

[@domino20]

Exactly. Same goes for this guy’s interview sucking up to General Petraeus.

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

China bot alert.

[@domino20]

I think your first impression in asking why a conflict between China and Taiwan should matter to Americans was correct. If we’re in our right minds and want to avoid nuclear war that destroys everything we won’t have a thing to do with it. Same goes for Ukraine and Israel. Why do you interview these neocon warmongers and not confront them about this? Have on some guests like Professors Jeffrey Sachs & John Mearsheimer or Col. Larry Wilkerson and get some truth.

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

The way to avoid nuclear war is standing up for allies. It's when allies fall that the threat of nuclear war goes way up. For better or for worse, Taiwan has now become a US protectorate, and by extension a NATO protectorate.

[@domino20]

Nuclear weapons guarantee the US won’t be invaded but to try to get our way all over the world when the only leverage is the threat of mutual assured destruction is incredibly risky and bound to lead to nuclear war eventually. Like it or not, Nationalist China lost the civil war in 1949 and it’s really not our business. We don’t even recognize Taiwan as an official nation. Semiconductors can be made elsewhere and any Taiwanese who wish to emigrate should be allowed to do it. It’s infinitely better than nuclear war. These huge alliances of nations like NATO have ultimately been a failure because if one gets attacked all hell breaks loose.@@user-lb8bg6kj9m

[@davdav1370]

Completely agree. You can see how Russia and China became pushovers for not even trying to put their nukes close to US. At this point US can freely occupy Cuba and Venezuela without any response from Russia and China. @@user-lb8bg6kj9m

[@incrediblestevrhymz2260]

​@@user-lb8bg6kj9myou sound very delusional, you think if Taiwan declares independence, China will give a fvck about what war mongering China hawks in the US thinks and not stop them in their tracks.... If you think the US is in a position to defeat an economic and military super power like China on their own turf, then I take it you are even more delusional than the idiotic supporters of Ukraine....

[@user-qp3tb4kb7j]

Thought of a war with China over Taiwan, is intellectually stupid.. Supporting China n Taiwan to achieve one China, two systems should be our thrust.

[@SAM-ih1xk]

Why is Asia “obviously where the growth is”!? How about “made in America”. There’s a cost to everything being super cheap.

[@MauldinEconomicsYouTube]

The two are not exclusive. Much of Asia is simply growing at a faster pace than the West. I am a strong advocate of bringing production back to the US, or at least closer to our borders. It improves our resiliency, and the cost differential is not as extreme as most believe. Thanks for the comment! -Ed

[@under18fearless]

The DPP won 57.1% of the popular votes in the 2020 presidential election but only won 40% of the popular votes in the 2024 presidential election. This means that 60% of Taiwanese do not want independence but want the status quo to remain.

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

Pretty sure after what happened in HK, most would want independence. The mere fact that China has to threaten war time and again speaks volumes.

[@wankee888]

Dont feel confused meh? Talking to China u say one china and Taiwan is part of china Talking to Americans, u say Taiwan must be defended.

[@ggttuuxx]

On one side of its mouth, the US government supports a One China Policy. On the other side of the mouth, the US Politicians talk as if Taiwan was an independent country. This is the phoneyness and disingenuousness of the United States.

[@JohnDoe-nh7ss]

Did you know A. I. Is a script editor from the 1980's?😋

[@jukio02]

China has time on their hands. China is growing stronger and more powerful with each passing year, while Taiwan is still growing, but at a much slower pace than China. In 10-15 years from now, Taiwan and even the US won't be able to do anything if China decides to forcefully take Taiwan back.

[@ggttuuxx]

China will not attack its own people. Only the US is the one party that wants a war between the Mainland and Taiwan. Do you realize how many Taiwanese invest and work in the Mainland? The two parts of China are working together very very tightly. US Politicians rely on the ignorance of the American people to attain their own selfish goals.

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

You are kidding right.

[@incrediblestevrhymz2260]

​@@user-lb8bg6kj9mEven now, the US won't be able to do more than what they have done for a Ukraine in Taiwan, China is a much bigger military and Economy than Russia yet, Nato and America combined are not able to defeat Russia as they ravage Ukraine and turn it into some stone age country... Americans like to talk tough and all but they won't dare go into direct military confrontation with a peer, at best they will use smaller countries with weak leaders to fight their foes.... Good thing is China is not going to listen to all that tough talk, they will do what any super power will do to protect their interests.

[@anuragsinha2013]

China is the new Soviet Empire, has all the hallmarks of Imperial Japan and China has the ambitions like Mongol Empire.

[@nishalall3510]

👌

[@justinliu7357]

The world will realign anyways whether or not the US defends Taiwan.

[@justinmccarthy2195]

US security is dependent on no single power or combination of aligned powers dominating the Eurasian land mass. The US intervened in two world wars to preempt such an occurrence. The combined population size, resources and technological ability of Eurasia would create an economic / military juggernaut that could easily dominate the US or deny US access to much of the world. And, our ability to avoid such an occurrence relies heavily on our alliance structure and the confidence our allies have in the US ability to deter or defeat the potential for such a Eurasian concentration of power. Failure to defend Taiwan could force many allies to either re-align with China or move to a neutral or anti US posture making the US more vulnerable and significantly reducing US economic potential. Hopefully, deterrence can be maintained. For those who would listen to the short term interests of Wall Street or corporations to guide US policy; just remember that US corporations were cultivating Hitler before WWII. Or, the old Marxist joke about capitalists; "They will sell us the rope we hang them with."

[@geoff9858]

😂😂😂😂

[@ggttuuxx]

What a moron. You have been thoroughly brain washed by the Military Industrial Complex.

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

My guess is US was cultivating Hitler to halt the spread of Communism. But that boy went overboard.

[@JohnDoe-nh7ss]

KZbin Chris williamson😋 social media algorithms are manipulating human behaviour😋

[@justinliu7357]

Seeth and cope losers. Y'all living in a failing hegemone that's lived past its best before date 😂

[@kenuston2299]

Taiwan falls, Japan falls, Philippines' falls, Vietnam fall..... U.S. falls.

[@ggttuuxx]

Oh really?? Do you remember the 3 million Vietnamese people MURDERED by the US during the Vietnam War? When the US eventually weaken, what will they say to you? You don't remember murdering them. Do you think they don't either? And the invasion of the Philippines? And the atom bombs on Japan?

[@ggttuuxx]

Are you ignorant? The United States murdered 3 million Vietnamese people during the Vietnam War. You may have forgotten it, or be so ignorant to not be aware of it. The Vietnamese people have not.

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

The Domino theory.

[@justinliu7357]

inshallah

[@mabo9636]

Vietnam fell in 1970's what were you talk about?

[@ggttuuxx]

Ed, are you being paid a large sum by the Military Industrial Complex now? If not, why are you interviewing warmongers?? If you have any more of these traitors to the Constitution, I will unsubscribe and will never come back.

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

China bot alert.

[@ggttuuxx]

@@user-lb8bg6kj9m "China bit"? Try to say something with meaning if you can. Just calling names mindlessly is shallow.