Armenian-Turkish Relations After the Earthquake

Despite the ongoing confrontation over Nagorno-Karabakh, which pits Armenia against Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia's response to the devastating earthquake in Turkey earlier this year has renewed hopes for rapprochement. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mizoyan made a surprise, historic visit to Ankara on February 15, and Armenia sent rescuers into the country. For the first time in three decades, the border opened briefly for the delivery of much needed humanitarian aid.
This is not the first time that there have been expectations of normalized relations between the two countries. At the end of 2009, then Armenian President Serj Sarkian and his Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul smiled and shook hands before cameras. However, the potential reconciliation had absolutely no further consequences. At that time, the process failed because of Armenian hardliners, who insisted on the recognition of the Genocide as a precondition of normalization, and Baku, which demanded the total withdrawal of the Armenian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh.
With the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh still unresolved, what should we expect from the Armenian Foreign Minister’s visit to Ankara? What could happen with Armenia-Turkey relations after the upcoming Turkish election? What will Azerbaijan's role be? Will Russia try to disrupt or encourage the current rapprochement? What should the US and its Western allies do?
Panelists:
Ahmad Alili is a researcher in international public policy and regional security of the South Caucasus, EaP countries, and neighboring regional powers. He is part of several peacebuilding initiatives supported by the EU, UN, and PfP consortium. Currently, he is the director of the Caucasus Policy Analysis Centre (CPAC), a Baku-based independent think-tank intending to achieve regional integration of the South Caucasus. Also, Mr. Alili is a lecturer at the Academy of Public Administration on the role of non-state actors in regional security, geopolitics, public management, and good governance.
Fatma Müge Göçek is a Professor of Sociology at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. Her research focuses on the comparative analysis of history, politics, gender, and collective violence from a critical, DuBoisian perspective. Her sole-authored works include East Encounters West: France and the Ottoman Empire in the 18th Century (Oxford University Press, 1987), Rise of the Bourgeoisie, Demise of Empire:Ottoman Westernization and Social Change (Oxford University Press, 1996), The Transformation of Turkey: Redefining State and Society from the Ottoman Empire to the Modern Era (I.B. Tauris, 2011), and Denial of Violence: Ottoman Past, Turkish Present and the Collective Violence against the Armenians, 1789-2009 (Oxford University Press, 2015).
Alexander Iskandaryan is a prominent expert on politics, nationalism, and the contemporary history of Armenia, the South Caucasus, and Eurasia. He is a political scientist and the Director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan, Armenia. He has authored numerous works on these topics, presented papers, and has talked at numerous conferences.
Moderator:
Mikail Mamedov holds his Ph.D. in History from Georgetown University where he is also a Lecturer in History and the Liberal Studies Program of the School of Continuing Studies and the same Department. His multiethnic Azeri-Armenian family arrived in the US back in 1996, in the wake of the Karabakh conflict. He holds his MA from George Washington University and his Diploma in History from Moscow Lomonosov State University. He authored numerous articles on the History of the Caucasus and on contemporary literature and the Karabakh conflict.