Arthur Berman: The Perfect Energy Storm - Peak Cheap Oil and Natural Gas is here

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Hi guys! Part 2 with Art Berman is now available! Check it out and tell me what you think! :) kzbin.info/www/bejne/bHucp6CHjtScick Also check out my follow up interview with solar entrepreneur Ron Swenson, a friend of mine and a friend of Art Berman. Ron has some really interesting perpectives that complements and in some cases differs from Art, feel free to check it out! kzbin.info/www/bejne/eWi3nKKGgqmpbrs&t Cheers, Johan

[@stevealdrich2472]

Art Berman and Nate Hagens are the 2 most reliable sources of information about the realities of energy in the world today. Thanks Evolution Show

[@Stoddardian]

100%

[@sergiofedele6811]

Arthur Berman always delivers great content. I am learning a lot from him also on X. Thank you for inviting him. As a complement to this discussion, I would suggest going deeper on the precise relationship between energy growth and GDP growth and the problem of overshoot of natural resources. Berman talked briefly about these topics, but they are central in any of these conversations about energy

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Thanks! Couldn´t agree more! We go a little deeper into the indeed causal relationship between energy growth (cheap energy such as oil and natural gas) and economic growth/GDP growth in part 2 which should be ready on Thursday next week! Someting to come back to even more in future episodes for sure! Cheers, Johan

[@braeburn2333]

Nate Hagens covers this in great detail, and has interviewed Art a number of times. I think his channel is called The Great Simplification.

[@sergiofedele6811]

@braeburn2333 yes, exactly, I highly recommend Nate hagens channel too. Thank you for suggesting it

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

@@braeburn2333 I´ve had Art Berman on the show on two earlier episodes 2 years ago, you might find interesting as well, links below. I first heard Art speak in an Energy conference I attended in Washington DC back in 2010, he made a great impression as a keynote speaker already then. kzbin.info/www/bejne/noWmeYZ6drqMeNE kzbin.info/www/bejne/qYfVlJJogNSGa9E Cheers! Johan

[@braeburn2333]

@@EvolutionShowNr1 Thanks for the interview(s) I'll watch the other two you did. Art usually speaks the best truth he knows, and when it comes to oil and gas, he knows a lot. However I feel he was kind of biased in favor of the industry in this interview. I guess it's hard to be objective when your income is based on the continuing success of the industry. I'm probably a bit biased in the other direction though.

[@dylanthomas12321]

I just discovered your channel by searching for Art Berman. What an intersting conversation, well done. I study a lit in the field of alternative energy, and have learned so much from Berman. He's not a naysayer on climate, etc., but he's very pragmatic, fact based analysis. I strongly suggest your viewers visit The Great Simplification podcast on KZbin by Nate Hagens, Phd., a friend of Art Berman, where they do four or five discussions on the topics you covered so well. I think you should d try to interview Tony Seba, whose analysis predicts that renewable solutions may come more quickly than either Nate or Art predict, purely for economic reasons made possible by a convergence of many factors happening now. Seba also has a youtube site worth visiting by serious people. Again, I am most impressed by your new channel and how deep you went in only an hour.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Hi Dylan! Glad you like the conversation and thank you for a very relevant guest suggestion! I know Tony Sebas work pretty well and I will try get him on the show, it would be a great complement to the discussion with another very interesting perspective! And you are right, Nate Hagens channel "The Great simplication" is great! Cheers! Johan

[@danielfaben5838]

Higher energy prices are useful to help lower consumption. That is obvious. The pain of not having all this cheap energy will be experienced unless demand is radically curtailed. Eventually, if demand increases, cost will rise considerably as supplies go over the peak. What about seriously curtailing demand? That can happen with economic contraction but what about real decrease in population with a concurrent slashing of the standard of living? Major food and water limits with poor distribution, warfare and international trade chaos , heat deaths plus all of the symptoms of overshoot that the planet will face should do the job regardless of planning or wishful thinking. Folks can think in terms of economics but miss the incredible inertia of the changes we have wrought.

[@Doug-tc2px]

Along with higher energy prices come higher inflation, oil demand has proved to be inelastic. The big worry is the lack of investment in new supply, this along with the worry that Russian oil could be permanently off market if it can't flow, last time this happened it took 30yrs to get it back online to full output with western companies doing the big lifting. These issues hanging over the market could send oil to $200-$300/. Natgas isn't an issue as there will be a global increase of 26% by next year. The good news is North America has options while others don't, we could cap price in our markets. Energy is the new black, did you know that once Nvidia's new semiconductors is implemented in the market place they will consume as much electricity as a medium sized country, to put it another way, they will consume more energy than all the current green power produced in America per year.

[@emanuellasker3650]

Berman for Energy Secretary!

[@thorsrensen3162]

I think most people have a perception that if they buy an EV they have done a lot in the energy transformation. Whereas they would likely had harmed the climate less if they had kept and maintained their old car instead.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

This is true in some cases but depends on how long they own the car/the new EV and what energy mix the EV is charging from/what market you are in. But in general if my memory serves me correct in terms of lifecycle analysis, the emissions from a new EV is less than from owningen the combustion vehicle after 3-5 years if ownership, often sooner. But of course it all depends on the size of the EV, if you drive short distances with the old car it will probably be better in terms of energy use/carbon emissions if you keep it instead of buying a new EV. But more importantly, we cannot continue business as usual with a car centric society with 1-2 persons per vehicle, it is an extreme energy use on so many levels and thus unsustainable. Cheers! Johan

[@snookysnax]

It gets way too expensive to maintain the old gas burning jalopy due to the inherent faulty design that utilizes many moving and heat cycled parts. my daily driver is 25 yrs. old, and want a new ev someday, I have done my part.

[@nickush7512]

That is the second intelligent video that I have seen in the past 12 months !! Yes, the "problem" is us, or too many of us alive at the same time, to be precise. Maybe the 9th Billion should hang back a bit before arriving and what would be the 10th billion hanging back a bit more. When the global instantaneous human population sinks below 7 Billion, we will know that we are starting to make meaningful progress: when it is below 6 Billion, we might just have a chance: when below 5 Billion, there might be a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel: when below 4 Billion, and we maybe have 20 to 30 years at best to achieve this, then we might deserve the title "intelligent" species, a species that conciously modified its behaviour to avoid catastrophic collapse.

[@chapter4travels]

Well, let's see, every single first and second world country has birthrates below replacement, most well below. Next, every single third world country has declining birthrates, so what more can we ask for.

[@michaelcorey9890]

Im here for Art.

[@katiegreene3960]

The big issue I see is predominantly complete ignorance about the energy we use. For example most people just think of electricity when they think of energy. And almost nobody thinks about all the other things we use ff for in modern world from aphault roads to plastics to meds cosmetics and many more also the coal used for steel etc .... its just to big and complex for most people to wrap thier minds around.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Totally agree! Cheers! Johan

[@vincentkosik403]

I'm great and so are you...and number 100...Thank you so much for the talk with Art Berman...great insight..

[@garo52]

Great interview from a rich persons world ....in the future you need to recognize and discuss the billions of people who live in energy poverty..they want what rich western countries have, heated homes, a stove to cook food etc...result will be higher global consumption of hydrocarbon fuels

[@mikaelpagroth1319]

Interesting. First, we learn that the use of oil, coal and natural gas is not decreasing. Then we learn that the supply of shale oil is decreasing. Good, I thought. Next, it is claimed that without oil and natural gas we cannot get enough steel, concrete, plastic, and above all - fertilizer. And without fertilizers, the world's population cannot get enough food. Interesting, but very depressing.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Very well summarized! And yes tough facts but to adapt to a new reality we must first accept and realize that we have lived in a parantheses in history with seemless infinite growth on a finite planet. It is time to wake up and reach a balance with nature or we will be just another civilization that collapse under the pressure of scarce resources. Cheers!

[@antonyjh1234]

Also a new study came out recently that has natural gas and LNG being 27-274% more polluting than coal. The plans of using gas as a transition fuel, off coal, will no longer be possible. 20% of our energy consumption is for electricity and people are fairly blind to the energy we use as part of a normal life in the modern world for the rest, for example going for driving holidays. A 60 litre tank of diesel has around 3 months of my electrical energy use for east coast Australia with the air con going 24/7 as we are in summer, a cord of wood around 3 years. CO2 being not the only issue, the energy going into the system as heat is and we use these fuels to go for a sunday drive etc and still promote things like monster trucks and car races.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

@@antonyjh1234 Hi! Interesting but not suprising, I know Cornell University was really early with studies showing that the methane leakage at shale gas rigs/shale gas extraction sites could be much higher than researchers had anticipated and their studies suggested methane leage from fracking of shale gas and shale oil could have a much bigger negative impact than even coal plants. This on top of the flaring of natural gas which of course turns into CO2 emissions as it is burned and is much less potent as GHG than CO2. Modern coal plants have up to 40 effeciency rate which at least is much better than to just flare natural gas or methane leakage. Cheers, Johan

[@antonyjh1234]

The new study out in November show that even when the gas is delivered with the most modern ship, taking the most direct route, the GHG emissions from the entire LNG life cycle are 24% higher than those caused by burning an equivalent amount of coal. In the worst case, involving long voyages in old vessels, steam-powered using heavy fuel oil, the emissions are 274% worse compared to coal. The paper ; The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States. was signed by 170 scientists and was handed to Biden before he made the decision to cancel future exports from USA, whether this had an effect in his decision I'm not sure, but going into an election period, who's to say. 9.8% of the gas was used in liquifying the load and ships as they warm up release unburnt gas, along with leaks all along the supply chain as you say.@@EvolutionShowNr1

[@antonyjh1234]

www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2023-12/Ex.%2016.%20Howarth_LNG_assessment_preprint_archived_2023-1103.pdf@@EvolutionShowNr1

[@jivefive99]

Shale and frakking was made possible by zero percent interest rates, lowering production costs. Matthew Simmons said there was "nothing left in the development box" to get more oil out. They already knew about frakking but didnt use it cause it was too expensive. Borrowing money at zero percent helped a lot to make frakking doable. We had higher oil prices in 2008 etc. Nobody was frakking at that time.

[@dylanmorin6468]

We have been frac'ing for more than 100 years. We use to drop nitroglycerine (TNT) down wells to fracture the rock and produce more oil. It wasn't until the 50s when we started to combine sand and diesel or condensate oil to hydraulically frac wells. This was performed on nearly every oil and gas well periodically to increase production. It wasn't until the 90s when wildcatters started frac'ing the shale formations that are the source rock with high concentrations of kerogen organic matter. By 2009 we were drilling horizontally into shales and frac'ing in stages. Drilling horizontal wells and fracing shale rock is common place now because the resource is so great compared, What Art misses is that technology always pushes our horizons further. 6 years ago we were drilling a 10kft deep well with a 10kft lateral in 20-30 days then fracing that well for another month, now both of those processes can take less than a month. The next big push is determining how to increase ultimate recovery factors from a meager 6-7% Original oil in place.

[@danielswanson9134]

The oil industry was getting bored due to lack of finds, so they decided to have a fracking party. It was good while it lasted.

[@dylanmorin6468]

@@danielswanson9134 we are still fracing as much as we ever have. But yeah shale is a low hanging fruit and is geologically more homogeneous over a basin compared to conventional reservoirs that have a high importance of structure and traps. New conventional fields are typically commonplace offshore. Evolution of technology and a boom of private equity money into the space yielded the prevalence of fracing in shales.

[@Ashby-m9f]

Fracking was expanded when Obama CANX new drilling permits. This resulted in West TX becoming one of the largest reserves in the USA. The Dakota Reserves were shut down by the State passing Laws that CANX Flaring and the Green Wenies shutdown, the new pipelines needed to supply this NG to Consumers... POS Biden also shut down new drilling and new extended drilling of the fracking legs - extended the life of the fracked wells. XOM is purchasing the Driller that developed this procedure in West TX. The existing Infrastructure & new procedure enables this reserve, to extend their viable production for another decade...

[@MrHerbNorcott]

Very powerful interview. Both of you guys are brilliant. Thanks so much for the insights.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

@@MrHerbNorcott thanks for those kind words, much appreciated! Cheers! /Johan

[@RobertojavierSilvaharth-ub3pz]

The staggering takeaway from that graph is the exponential growth of energy consumption in the last Century. If one considers the population growth in the underdeveloped world has been sigificantly more than in the developed world, one can deduce the lopsided demand of energy consumption. The smaller but richer population of the West consumes sigificantly more than their larger but poorer counterpart. Further, if one considers air travel worldwide one can clearly see a massive increase of tráffic comercial and prívate, to and fro, about Europe and North América, with most of the comercial flight increase being cargo. Adding sea traffic to the mix, the amounts of ships leaving East Asia for North América and Europe carrying trinquets in the past 20 to 30 years is just as staggering. To top the inbalance off, consider the naval fleets of the developed world permanently at sea protecting all of this traffic... It's shear madness! Today, most of the northern hemisphere shines bright at night for all alien life to see whilst we deplete our energy resources in a maddening race to the bottom!!

[@chapter4travels]

So it's great that we have an unlimited supply of uranium and thorium.

[@ErikAkerman]

Glad to have you back Johan. I have missed the show. Look forward to seeing your house project!

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Thanks Erik! All my energy and time has been invested in the house design, including a pretty complicated energy system (with ALOT of help from father who is a true engineering/construction genius). And the heating system and rainwater harvesting has been tricky but now all the drawings and most permits are in place. Hope to be able to share the start of the construction during the summer. Cheers! Johan

[@momochacha1235]

Thank you for bringing Art, always great to listen to him. Just a small suggestion: questions are too long, at the end of which I'm sometimes lost in what is asked.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Thanks! Appreciate that, I will think of that next time! Cheers, Johan

[@j85grim4]

I love how Art always says "I'm not being critical, I'm not criticizing" then he proceeds to deeply criticize whatever it is he's mentioning 😅. To be fair, these things deserve to be criticized. No need to apologize Art.

[@abelincoln3261]

Remember a few years ago during our Covid criss... Remember seeing the reports of air quality snd water quality around the world... We did see an almost immedite difference an improvement in water and air quality almost over night.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Yes that is hopeful. I recall that Nature around Chernobyl nuclear plant, that has been closed off for humans is flourishing, remarkable how fast Nature can recover when we let it... Cheers, Johan

[@jethro_Jr]

I'm glad you are return. 💗

[@warrenpeece1726]

I remember in the early 70s when oil and natural gas changed from "fuel" to "energy." A much sexier marketing term that really took off. Obviously.

[@johnharcombe9412]

Tony Seba has shown everything country can run 100% on renewable energy with battery energy storage

[@RobertojavierSilvaharth-ub3pz]

Arthur, about 20 years ago I read an oil report based on valuing petroleum extraction on barrels of oil, instead of dollars. At the time, the cost of extracting one barrel of oil on average requiered the energy equivalent of four barrels of oil, compared to the begining of oil exploration in the late 1800's when oil was abundant and near the surface in Pensilvania oil fields. I thought it was a brilliant analisys because it took currency and inflation out of the equation. I wonder what is the energetic cost in barrels ot oil, not dollars, of extracting oil and gas these days?

[@keepitreal2902]

A lot higher than 4!

[@brianrichards7006]

There's an enormous amount of oil and NG imbedded in the production, (mining of metals, silicon, etc.) transportation, installation, and eventual removal and recycling of "renewable" energy schemes. We probably should go directly to nuclear, both large reactors and the small modular reactors, and just avoid the wasteful "renewables".

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

There are many problems with SMR (small modular reactors). In a Swedish/American research paper they looked at efficiency rate and waste costs of SMR VS conventional reactors and there are two major problems: SMR reactors are much less efficient and the radioactive waste products are much more complicated and dangerous to handle from SMR reactors. They conclude that even if you scale up SMR production these problems will remain and the waste problem would become enormous. Read the paper here: news.stanford.edu/2022/05/30/small-modular-reactors-produce-high-levels-nuclear-waste/ Personally I see an even bigger problem. If you place numerous SMR reactors across a country, this creates an unavoidable serious security threat in case some invading country or other crazy people want to create havoc. How on Earth can a state protect all these communities be it with military or other means in a situation like in Ukraine for ex. It would be madness from a security perpective. Cheers! Johan

[@antonyjh1234]

20% of our energy is electricity, you would have to build a lot to replace this and this is the issue with net zero, they are only talking about electricity, you could be 100% net zero with nuclear and you would only have solved 20% of the issue. Replacing the 80%, there would not be enough resources to outfit everybody with new cars etc. The energy in a tank of diesel is around 3 months of my electrical energy with 24/7 air con as we are in summer, winter it was 5.2 months, there is a lot of energy that needs to be replaced.

[@jjuniper274]

Excellent discussion.

[@brycelupo7120]

One thing that I do love about America is that we love our energy!!

[@johanmeijer133]

Not until minute 36 does Arthur Berman implicitly say that less investment into oil and gas exploration is due to ESG. He says this without mentioning the three-letter word by saying that funds are internally generated by the oil companies.

[@luismachado6264]

So the price of oil and gas will keep going up?

[@markusperscheid4278]

You are refreshing!

[@michlwezenngraon7487]

Thank you 🙏

[@arunkottolli]

Oil & Gas prices will have to match wind and solar prices in future. As solar energy prices drop, overall energy prices will also have to fall.

[@petertyckare3432]

The most important thing is to educate and enlighten the people in the 3rd world, In Europe, USA, Canada; Australia, the birth rate is constantly falling, so it is up to Africa-Middle East to slow down the birth rate, they would have to do what China did, it would do the earth good and them themselves in the present tense !.

[@Papawcanner]

Eurocentric thinking

[@francretief1]

What's wrong with Eurocentric thinking? Compare any European city with any African city. Where would you rather live? I live in Africa and travel frequently to Europe. There is no comparison.

[@spankeyfish]

The birthrate has been falling in all but 2 or 3 African countries for decades. The only ones where it isn't falling are war zones.

[@abelincoln3261]

True there are people in many countries that still use mules donkeys oxen cows etc to power their feild equipment their carts their wagons etc... But we as a planet can continue to benefit from the use of thechnilogied like solar battery powered vehicles etc... Wind Hydro power etc...

[@arunkottolli]

The main reason why the society moved to fossil fuels in 19th century was: Cost and ease of utilisation. Now that we have a super efficient grid and prices of solar energy and wind energy is dropping below fossil fuels, global oil/gas prices will have to follow suit.

[@wtdiaeemergency8996]

you dont have to put solar on a roof you can put thenm on the ground

[@AnthonyJMendoza-f7i]

"We don't go from 5% to 50% in a decade or two...." Well, no. We have done that a number of times. There is a set of two famous pictures of a single street in New York City in 1901 and in 1913. In 1901 the street was full of horses and there was one car. In 1913 the street was full of cars and there was only one horse. New York city underwent a near 100% transformation in about a decade. So, such transformations do happen. As far as absolute amounts go, coal in the US went from 1000 short tons per year in 2008 to less than 500 in 2022. This is an absolute decrease of over 50% in 14 years. So, that happens also. Now a lot of the substitution was with another fossil fuel (Natural gas), but that came with a big reduction in emissions. This didn't happen in the World, but it will because the biggest user of coal in the World is China and it is also the biggest investor into solar power (which is added in on top of the coal as you said). However, China's population is rapidly declining and growing older and as this happens energy demand will also decline. As it does, China is not going to keep the coal plants open which have a constant cost of fuel, but the solar plants which are basically free to run.

[@kenvrinten3450]

Reminds me of the old Flinstone episode " he is Ollie I am Sven"

[@kenvrinten3450]

OPEC Currently has 4 mm bopd of spare capacity

[@andersolsen1478]

I will look forward to see your video on Tony Sebas predictions so I have signed up as follower to your channel

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

I will do my best to get him on! :)

[@kiedranFan2035]

Im expecting a fall as fast we rose as fuel is exhausted and im not at all worried about that reality, becuase it is the reality. We should toughen up people now so they can easily take millions to billions of casualties in the coming decades who can enforce modern standards for those who survive during this

[@teddybearroosevelt1847]

You may just be right. Ask any journalist who’s asked in war settings how quickly a peaceful society can turn into an ugly anarchy where people turn on each other

[@vincentkosik403]

Make sure you get vaccinated

[@thomasreis4949]

Peak Heavy crude was years ago see the imo2020. It was not about clean air it was about availability!

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Peak conventional crude oil was years ago correct but we are talking about total world production including tar sands, natural gas liquids, liquids from coal and from shale oil and oil shale. In other words when total available oil exports declines as oil producers (not all, but overal output) declines following geological limits in extraction. Cheers! Johan

[@BobQuigley]

The concern for those that do not have the means to invest in a better home etc is understandable. In US it's used as a battering ram. This helps keep the heat off of the HUGE. number of the wealthy that can act. 130 million Americans have the means to easily change. They choose to continue buying multiple houses doing further damage to affordable housing market. Millions live in gated communities which have rules forbidding members from using solar. Design rules which prevent modern construction techniques which result in better houses with longer life spans. We live in Ohio. Our state government is a wholly owned subsidiary of coal, oil interests. These thugs were able to ram through legislation which eliminated all environmental regulations for power plants. It also forced Ohio ratepayers to pay an additional monthly fee in order to keep seven unprofitable coal plants in operation. Two of the plants are not in Ohio. They accomplished this crime by bribing state political leaders with $65 million. Several were arrested two headed to prison and the others await trial. The power company last week announced major profit improvements, stock shot up 20%. In their statement they acknowledged that the bill illegally pushed through state government was the reason for the improvement. They also passed a law stating methane is a green fuel.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Really sorry to hear this. But US if far from alone, here in Sweden many are in a similar situation and super rich and wealthy live in a bubble under the illusion they will be able to continue to consume and travel the same way they have over the last decade. Most do not use their capital and time to prepare for a very different energy future and indeed economy. Their are on the other hand, increasingly many in Sweden, even with a fairly tight economy, that move to the country side and take steps to build a homestead, become partly or fully energy independant and grow part or most of their own food. I have met people with almost no experience with this doing a great job and progress fast thanks to a committment and understanding that things will change dramatically over the next decade. It gives me hope that humanity still have a chance but that the transition will be very very tough for most people. Cheers! Johan

[@sebyst7907]

Germany us poised to use 40% less coal and 10% less gas year on year. Its been consistently falling, this is the worlds 4th largest economy, its going somewhere, at least here

[@chapter4travels]

Industry is fleeing Germany as fast as they can so their use of coal should drop even faster.

[@sebyst7907]

@@chapter4travels 🤣🤣🤣 All 0.1 percent. Oh nooooo scaryyyyyy

[@andersolsen1478]

You should watch the videos from Tony Sheba. According to Tony Sheba there will be an abundance of energy and food in the future. Tony Sheba has also figured out how to survive on renewable energy and without a future of oil and gas.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

I will try make an episode with Tony Seba! :)

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

@andersolsen1478 Hi again! Feel free to check out my follow up interview with solar entrepreneur Ron Swenson, a friend of mine and a friend of Art Berman. Ron has some really interesting perpectives that complements and in some cases differs from Art. Hope you find it interesting! :) Link below: kzbin.info/www/bejne/eWi3nKKGgqmpbrs&t Cheers, Johan

[@hawkkim1974]

The whole world has Saudi, Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, and the whole Arab states too. And the population in countries with high oil consumption is declining rapidly.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

If you look at the world oil production over the last 10 years production from Russia and Saudi Arabia and almost all others are flat or in clear decline. Without US Shale production increase over same period, world oil production would be insufficient to meet demand. Even with an increase from Iran and Saudi Arabia (production reserve) of 2-3 million barrels per day it would only be enough to meet a decline in US shale oil production the first year, maybe 2. If natural gas declines the same time I think Europe and other natural gas importing countries, including Japan are in real trouble to meet energy demand. Cheers! Johan

[@antonyjh1234]

The issue with 23 countries that are going to lose 50% of their population's by 2100 is by that time Africa is supposed to be almost half the world. Give half the world an extra $5 a day and that would be a 100% increase in consumption/emissions, give the same amount to those 23 countries and it won't be much change in their overall consumption, but as the modern countries do decrease, it will lower the price for the poorer people.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

@@antonyjh1234 Important point, thanks! Cheap energy to more people, be it directly or indirectly with higher real wages leads to higher overall energy consumption=Jevons Paradox

[@grahammutlow1612]

Interesting and calm analysis. Unfortunately our governments seem to be blindly gambling on using more energy now on solutions which they hope may give us cheaper energy in the future. We in the UK are now totally dependent on steel, battery, turbine importation. Clearly these systems still require coal to produce but now we have to add oil used in transportation to import. It is hoped that battery EVs will reduce pollution but require much more energy to produce and have a very limited life, so will need replacement quicker then ICE vehicles and we are already short of electricity, which is mainly produce from gas (some of which we import as liquid) despite have built thousands of turbines. There are other possibilities but governments have forced industry done one path only delaying engineers coming up with better solutions. It seems to me that we need a rapid increase in Nuclear and may wave technology. A lot more sensible discussion is need but this s difficult as if you question anything you are shouted down as a climate denier.

[@r.s.334]

I just subbed and must say you have really intelligent people in the comments section.

[@havenmist2216]

I'll wait till we get past reasonably priced oil and gas before I worry.

[@b4bmm]

Why does nobody ask Art why the majors are spendings tens of billions of $ buying out the largest shale operators if it is in terminal decline?

[@liamhickey359]

Would imagine theres still some left anyway. It has to peak at some stage. Shale will peak in just the same way American crude peaked in back in the 70s just as King Hubbard predicted it would.

[@davidhilderman]

A less radical Paul Erlich?

[@MarkJensen-se8nn]

*.....very good.* Regards -

[@jeremytaylor3532]

This video really misses on the geopolitical. China is basically in a recession becoming a depression. They have many factories shut down as companies have chosen to relocate. China has a surplus of oil and gas because they have been receiving the Russian oil not going to Europe. India and Africa have been also receiving a portion of this all at a discounted rate. And being paid for in Yuan. Which the Russians find out they can only spend in China. Which does not suit their purposes. Russia has also experienced trouble with their wells, these were only kept open and functioning with western assistance. So they are beginning to falter after 2 years. And opposing forces have been blowing up and sabotaging their refineries. Which lack replacement parts. All made in the west. Russia is banning gasoline and diesel exports. As they fear shortages at home. Most of this went to Africa and the Stan Republics. Russia has two objectives. To get more money for their oil and to cut global supply in order to squeeze the west. When they take Siberian oil offline. It can freeze up the well and it is very difficult to get the well pumping again. Saudi Arabia has not been happy about oil below $80 but with Russian oil flooding Asia at $60 a barrel and removing China and India as their best customers. The Saudi Kingdom has been experiencing a cash shortage for their mega projects which need to be funded with US dollars mostly. They have cut back exports to try to raise the oil price but this has not worked with Russia and America pumping at maximum. Now that Russia has cut back after Putins personal visit to the UAE and Saudi Arabia after the Gaza incident began. MBS decided to double down on his million barrel cut, increasing it to two million barrels, hoping to boost oil prices. High interest rates in the US have had the knock on effect of cutting the number of oil rigs drilling. However counter intuitively new technologies to get more oil flow from existing wells, has lead to oil production increasing while rigs declined. Which never happened before. Also Guyana next to Venezuela has just found huge oil and Venezuelan reserves have increased beyond that of Saudi Arabia. Also Brazil has had some large discoveries which should supply their own markets nicely. Canadian heavy oil which has been nice to mix with American shale to get a medium grade has been selling for $50 a barrel for many years due to a lack of pipelines. Which have been blocked at various levels in the US. Trump did not understand the control of the regulatory agencies in the states that stonewalled his executive order to complete the major one. And Biden canceled that order the first day he took office. But the much delayed twinning of the Trans mountain pipe line across BC may come online in 2024. If no more monkey wrenches get thrown at it. Although stupidity has reduced the diameter of the final section. Phoney engineers saying that they could not do it properly. And Justin Trudeau buying in. This will allow Canadian oil to reach California, replacing expensive Saudi Oil. And allowing them to cut it with light Shale oil to get a better mix. This will have the strange result of reducing gas prices in California which are the highest in the US. And increasing them in the Midwest, where they have been the lowest for years. Unless the crazies in California reject this idea to keep fuel prices high for their anti ICE car policies. The world has essentially reached peak oil and with declining populations, more efficient LED lights and Tvs and computers. And very efficient appliances and heat pumps. Have meant a leveling of electricity consumption in the US since 2002. Even adding thousands of EVs into the grid has still left it with excess capacity. Although you hear much more about localized shortages due to transmission issues. These can be cheaply rectified by reconductoring existing transmission corridors with highly efficient wires. Allowing the grid to be upgraded inexpensively. There are also enough solar and wind and storage projects, in post planning, awaiting final permit approval, to replace all fossil fuel plants in the US. This could be completed in 3 years, but the people in charge usually don't get things done quickly. When this is done and electric cars have replaced half of the cars and half of the trucks. The US will only require half of its oil. And will be able to become an oil exporting nation again. At that time they will probably seek a realignment with the middle east for higher oil prices.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Thank you for sharing interesting perspective! I have a Masters degree in peace and conflict but later specialised in big picture economics and read a ton of books etc. I plan to have an episode on the strategic importance of oil with a friend and specialist on resurce scarcity from Berlin (he is originally from Azerbadjan). Much of what you describe are important things I hope to cover with him. Cheers, Johan

[@kiedranFan2035]

I have to ask art burmann....what society? Where?

[@teddybearroosevelt1847]

It’s Berman not Burpmann

[@elekkr]

I think that rigorous energy conservation can lower energy usage 50% without any serious economic consequences . Look at europe when the putin/ukraine situation happened and russky gas and oil was cut of the whole of europe from one day to the other lowered energy consumption by a ¼ without any economical prroblems and that was only by saving energy on heating and driving less etc if push comes to showe i am positive we can lower energy consumption by 60 even 70% that will extend energy supply by a century or more . And that makes is a non problem

[@dannycbe949]

How does oil and natural gas form at great depths? Why does it occur in selected area of the world? How come it's not available all over the world?

[@liamhickey359]

Read up on a little geology.

[@barrycarter8276]

Once it wasn’t at such great depths, animals and plants (diatoms) that lived millions of years ago in a marine environment (before dinosaurs existed) mostly trapped in inland lakes and ocean fed over millions of years gets covered over through tectonic plate movements of the earths crust, taking them down down down and cooking them under great pressure with heat, hey presto Hydrocarbons formed. It’s all there on the internet you know🤔

[@klondike444]

They formed at a particular geological period under specific conditions. Plate tectonics and pressure play a role, so they are mostly not near the surface.

[@chapter4travels]

I guess it's a good thing we have unlimited uranium and thorium for every single person on Earth to live at 5x US standards in regard to energy use.

[@RobertojavierSilvaharth-ub3pz]

Industrial use of electricity requieres a permanently powered grid, which is why we must have electric loads (lights) overnight. We can't turn the generators off at night, and solar power or wind power cannot feed a smelter or a steel rolling mill. I've lived on a sail boat on solar and wind on very frugal consumption, but every time I used the engine the battery banks were toped up. However, frugality kills consumption which is the back bone of our economic system. The only viable option in todays world is nuclear energy as long as we keep consuming at todays rates, and as you said we're not about to change our consumption patterns!!

[@chapter4travels]

To combat global poverty the world is going to need at least 10x the amount of energy than we use today. So, it's a good thing we have unlimited amounts of uranium and thorium. With enough cheap/clean energy, there are very few things we can't recycle. And nuclear will be cheap when let it.

[@flutieflambert]

What is Berman talking about? Google Coal consumption. It has been falling precipitously for years, not just percentage wise, but in raw numbers. And nobody uses whale oil for energy anymore- which is why Nantucket isn’t a bustling metropolis anymore. Nobody uses draft animals for energy anymore. Nobody uses horses for transportation anymore. It is absurd to think we will continue to use just as much of the same energies and technologies tomorrow as we did in the past. That is not how things work nor has it ever been.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Hi! If you check IEAs data for world coal consumption 2010-2025 (real data 2010-2023(all 2022) world coal consumption is the highest in 12 years and estimated to remain flat until 2025: www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-coal-consumption-2000-2025 Do you have a different source, feel free to share it! Cheers, Johan

[@claudearchibald]

Does he ever talk about CO2 enhanced oil recovery and the monumental expansions to the #45Q tax credit in the Inflation Reduction Act?

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Definitely something to bring up next time, thanks!

[@joeycad]

Trillions of barrels fairly untouched in utah/ colorado oil shales. Technology will come with price. I

[@DanielWillis-q2g]

Battery prices are falling. They are getting so cheap they are the solution. That complicated hydrogen system is needless. Tony Seba's team has calculated that even places mostly dark for periods of time, can survive on Solar Wind and Battery, plus any green energy they might already have. Hydro-electric plants, Nuc etc. Rooftop solar is taking off in Australia, an admittedly sunny place, and they are backing up with batteries. Norther climes will be able to simply over build their solar and add batteries. Like I said, costs are plummeting for batteries. If you can buy 10 shiploads of fuel for your power plant and create X amount of energy, or you could spend the equivalent of 10 shiploads of fuel (in today's prices, these prices will go up in future we must remember) build a solar farm, and generate X amount of energy for 30 years at near zero cost, you won't see many power generation companies buying those 10 shiploads of fuel.

[@DanielWillis-q2g]

Demand might simply crater.

[@graemetunbridge1738]

'use far too much energy' - I think waste far too much energy. Delft not Detroit.

[@dan2304]

Within Fossil fuels will be used to economic depletion within a few decades, when the cost of supply of commodities is more than the ability to pay. And be largely depleted by 2100. So humanity is facing grossly inadequate supplies of minerals, metals and energy needs for more than a small fraction of the current global population. As well as accelerating global warming exceeding 4 C warming and 2-3 m sea level rise before 2100, incresaing next century. 95% of the cost of agricultural production is the energy input.

[@chapter4travels]

Ok Doomer.

[@dan2304]

@@chapter4travels It is fantasy to think that there are successful conclusions when both the people who understand the science combined with the analysis of available data all confirm a trajectory heading to economic, social and population collapse starting within a few decades and largely complete this century. One of the biggest issues is the degradation of the environment;, soils, forests, fisheries etc that provided the resources for humans to survive before the industrial revolution.

[@chapter4travels]

@@dan2304 Nice word salad

[@samuraijack7295]

The oft-repeated phrase "since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia" is quite deliberately misleading. It should be "since Europe stopped directly importing Russian gas due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia".

[@KhanR1-qm2xi]

Fracking is bad for our environment. The US should end fracking and invest in wind, solar and battery storage.

[@JamesFitzgerald]

No. That's dumb.

[@jayd6813]

Small detail - the war should not be called "the Ukraine invasion". It should be called the US overthrow of Ukraine (coup in 2014) and "US-Induced War". It is all about energy and US hegemony, including the worst environmental terrorism committed with the destruction of the Russian-German Nord Stream Pipeline. Gaza is also mostly about nat gas fount in 2019 (the Israeli govmt funded Hamas - public fact).

[@earthflute2248]

The actual problem is 1st premise.. co2 is warming. As it is not, then this conversation is mute.

[@charlesperrmann1795]

What about nuclear power?

[@chapter4travels]

This is a Doomer YT channel, they are not interested in obvious solutions.

[@jamessullivan9992]

Will Americans be forced to join car pools because of price ?

[@glike2]

Solar, wind, and batteries installations are accelerating and nuclear is making a comeback with new technologies. This discussion was too much backward looking.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Feel free to check earlier episodes, I'm all in with solar, batteries etc. I've designed my own energy house with my father that will have ALOT of solar, batteries, rainwater tank. I got my Tesla in 2014 and I'm all in for sustainable tech. But I also realize we have to scale down, slow down and fundamentally change our energy and material use. Business as usual even with new tech and energy use won't be enough. Cheers, Johan

[@InformedKiwi]

This interview is forward looking not backward as you suggest. There is so much talk about the successes in Renewables but as a percentage of the total it small and what’s more the percentage is not increasing. Because as renewables output grows so does total consumption resulting in little change as a percentage of the totals. Coal and Natural Gas as a source is not only not going away they are not quantifiably not changing

[@barrycarter8276]

No! you’re too futuristic, just don’t be disappointed when things don’t appear before “ The Great Simplification”, when choosing to use less energy won’t be a choice it’ll be a matter of survival🤔

[@elekkr]

How much more clueless can one get after this ?!

[@henrilewkowicz6047]

if what Arthur Berman say is true then Russia is on top of the world

[@mikearcher6568]

To the interview timeframe is scary, and this gentleman’s background is even more scary. Haven’t come from the hydrocarbon industry. By my calculations are an architectural technologist we have already got past 1.5° since pre-industrial levels of climate temperature change. There is a latent effect that will take four years for the Climate to catch up with the current level of omissions which means that we are locked into going higher with temperatures and if you look at the time delay and the temperature change not allowing for climatic tip over points, we have no more than 28 years maximum before the environment that we depend on will no longer exist That will spell the death of society as we know it we will be reduced living in Glass bubbles on hydroponically, grown food and artificially generated oxygen so that leaves need to conclude is only one way forward that is to make it illegal to burn hydrocarbons as soon as humanly and legislatively possible Anything short as that will ultimately lead to the extension of our species and all others

[@chapter4travels]

OK Doomer

[@my2cents395]

War is a big waste of energy.

[@xltoth]

Huge waste period.

[@graemetunbridge1738]

'reassification is not free' - ie wastes a lot of energy. A pity they blew up the pipelines.

[@billhammett174]

Good program. Art Berman is incredibly smart and thoughtful... nb, intriguing that the Russians blew up their own pipelines to Germany: should we call it "peak pipeline?"...

[@stacymchalffey9454]

wow

[@perrinpartee557]

Too many people. That’s the problem.

[@larsthorwald3338]

"Peak Chep Oil and Peak Gas is here." ...is they? hahaha Even on YT it's unusual to find both a typo and a grammatical clinker in the same title--does wonders for your credibility,

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Oh thanks! On it! :)

[@lengould9262]

Talk without evidence. He's trying to salvage fossil fuel income. Eg low-cost easily-engineered fusion reactors WILL, if available, put coal, biomass, natural gas and most oil entirely out of business.

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Well, I havent seen a low cost fusion reactor yet... And assuming you are right, there would be many levels of energy loss for a fusion reactor to generate synthetic fuels that still will be needed in the chemical industry for example. The future will tell but I would not bet my future hopes on fusion reactors maintaining current levels of consumption/economic growth, let alone increase them. But future will tell! Cheers, Johan

[@lengould9262]

@EvolutionShowNr1 Are you claiming that ANY current fossil fuel company could survive on their petrochem business sales? I've always assumed that any use of fossil resources which doesn't involve burning the product will continue unchanged, using renewable or fusion electricity for any required energy. But that won't be companies the size of current Exxon, Aramco, Shell ...

[@stoenchu122]

LNG is not as Green as gas in pipes… funny

[@Papawcanner]

Not a word about the US blowing up the Nordstream pipeline .

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Hi! It does not change the core problem: When US shale oil production declines, world production will follow shortly. And US natural gas production has increased much more than Russian production over the last decade, when it declines Russia wont be able to cover it.

[@foumar5217]

This interviewer talks wayyy too much

[@bellakrinkle9381]

He likes clear explanations that covers all bases so that no one will have unanswered questions. (Some people are talkers.)

[@clifftrewin1505]

are the swedes going to shut down their nuclear plants and build more solar?

[@EvolutionShowNr1]

Hi! Alot of Swedes are installing solar, an exponential increase in fact over the last couple of years. Even reseidential apartment buildings, farmers and large industrial facilities. The problem is energy storage Oct-March (night time can be covered with battery storage unless you live in the far North...) Batteries are not enough for seasonal storage of course. But in Denmark several large communities are combining large solar thermal heaters with effeiciency rates of up to 80 % that store the heat in large underground pools/deposits during summer that heat more than 1000 people's houses during the winter. It is being tested in Helsinki too. Absolicon is the Swedish company behind the technology, I've had the CEO and founder on the Evolution Show: kzbin.info/www/bejne/ioO9d4eqfap_f7Msi=AWGxEmBH25WGuwAB If we downsize and decentralize heating and power supply we can come along way but we have to combine both old and new technologies to make it redundant. Off-grid or semi-offgrid systems and microgrids is the future I think! Cheers! Johan

[@InformedKiwi]

And your point is? Shutting down one type of Renewables, Nuclear Energy, to replace in with another type of Renewable, Solar Energy makes no difference

[@barrycarter8276]

Guess you felt like replying without understanding what Art Berman had to say. Why don’t you try offering solutions instead of inane criticisms🤔

[@barenekid9695]

C'mon.... DO a minimum amount of Research...... Before Babbling Bullshit.

[@Pasandeeros]

It's Poopy Propeller Time soon. Everyone knows this.

[@teddybearroosevelt1847]

This guy has done his research. What makes you think he hasn’t?

[@A3Kr0n]

How is your comment helpful?

[@vincentkosik403]

Seems he did and Mr. Berman had the floor mostly..and he wrote the book

[@InformedKiwi]

Arthur Berman here talks more about the reality than so many other emotional climate warriors on their soap boxes ever will. I see the gains renewables have made and are making but getting to stop coal or gas use is nothing but a dream in as far as the foreseeable future

[@whiteynut]

The only huge shift we will see is to nuclear. The only limit to that is an economical battery technology that isn't so destructive. That should be our main focus. Until then carbon isn't going anywhere.

[@antonyjh1234]

20% of our energy is electricity, you would have to build a lot to replace this and this is the issue with net zero, they are only talking about electricity, you could be 100% net zero with nuclear and you would only have solved 20% of the issue. From each barrel of oil we get plastics, asphalt, bunker oil for ships, if we want these to continue then petrol, gas, diesel being refined off 1st is going to have to go somewhere, nuclear won't replace this.