AT&T (T) Stock Valuation, Analysis, Estimated Investment Return

[@davidderfus3462]

I saw the time on this video, and just rolled my eyes . . . But this video turned out to be EXTREMELY informative and you just gained another subscriber.

[@CstewartCFA]

Thanks for the support!!

[@oskartegnesjo1111]

Awesome, Sir. I like to be taught how to fish. You're in my top 3 for investing channels, absolute substance.

[@enriquevargas7073]

What are your other 2?

[@oskartegnesjo1111]

@@enriquevargas7073 Swedish Investor and Stonk Options

[@Czarjonz]

What are your two other channels? I’m looking for other analysts that perform a thorough analysis similar to Cameron’s. Thanks👍🏾

[@Czarjonz]

@@oskartegnesjo1111 >>Ignore my other comment. This is the information I asked about. Thanks again.

[@Entrepreneurshipchannel]

With the amount of breakdown contained in this one, I will have to watch multiple times. Your videos are packed with so many useful tips for financial analysis. T is the largest holding in my portfolio. Their large shares outstanding is another possible growth catalyst. If they buy back some of those 8 billion shares, we could also see an increased market multiple.

[@andres.1335]

Great video. 100% agree. AT&T is a bargain right now.

[@jamestao539]

every time I watch Camron's video, I learn something or have a deeper understanding of a company's financials.... great stuffs!

[@CstewartCFA]

Great to hear! Thanks @james Tao

[@jrkc9218]

Thank you for this. It’s a good refresher of some college courses I took but done much better than I could have remembered. Very helpful.

[@ZaphyrVonGenevese]

What an amazing analysis and also the step by step explanation. This is an amazing value per minute spent watching the video. Subscribed immediately!

[@N0xgar]

You explain better than the CFA curriculum. Very easy to follow and understand the logic behind it all. Great work!

[@CstewartCFA]

Glad it was helpful!

[@domg2624]

Absolutely love the breakdown and info. I just found your channel about a week ago and I’m going thru past videos. Quickly climbing my favorite channel list! Keep up the terrific work. I would love to see some breakdowns of big pharma companies like JNJ, PFE, ABBV etc. Thanks for all the effort

[@brettfoster9124]

Cameron, your videos are awesome! Thanks.

[@Phoenix-lk5vt]

Definitely one of your best breakdowns. Thank you very much for your work.

[@brucemitton6548]

Very good! I like how you use FCF and EBITA rather than just the div. to understand the value.

[@brmo5266]

Can you do an update on your outlook for this stock? Also perhaps for your previously reviewed stocks

[@shawnfrank5303]

Thanks Cameron, perfect timing almost since they released their earning yesterday.

[@JerryMicGuire]

Thanks for this Cameron! I've always thought of T as a stock for investors near retirement that wanted that cushy dividend without taking on much risk. But you're anticipating a lot of growth as well. Very intriguing!

[@robertc3608]

Would love to see you revisit ATT as they are spinning out Warner media and cutting the dividend like you asked for.

[@milmac5052]

I second that! Please evaluate T again. I have bought a good chunk at 27. You think it’s worth buying more? Please and thank you.

[@johnwick3725]

Good thing that you still explain things in detail.

[@stitchergary]

I hope (T) goes up the way you're projecting.. I have 11 covered calls to earn a little bit more return... With my cost basis my dividend is 7.3% which is great in my retirement....thanks for the video....I found you through "The Popular Investor."

[@yuningxx]

Another great video and thanks for doing it. My suggestion to your analysis of T is: maybe address it’s failed DirectTV acq, and HBO Max prospect from the business side. I also think your exit EBITDA multiple of 10x is a bit aggressive. In general I suggest you add more business vs financial, maybe 2:8, or 3:7, currently it’s like 1:9 biz vs fin - I think business is the fundamental that drive financial. Anyway, it’s a great video, and I regard T as a stable cash cow with a free option to become NFLX or DIS (in term of its HBO Max streaming business). Thanks!

[@Outta12]

Great Pick! I was looking at T. I purchased some last week.

[@ahDeeChai]

This is awesome! Thanks for your detail explanation of the figures, I really appreciate that!

[@johnpensados5054]

Hi Cameron, thanks for sharing the details of the methodology of your reasoning in this video, very impressive! Love those longer formats... learned a lot !

[@CstewartCFA]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@UemersonPROF]

Great analysis. Good to understand the numbers diving into the Cashflow Statement. Thank you so much for share this knowledge.

[@marksfers2210]

I really like your analysis, thank you! Could you do one for the Raytheon Technologies Corp.?

[@johnhess7820]

I agree RTX would be great

[@CstewartCFA]

Next week is RTX - it’s a good one

[@7thSpringofthe7thSun]

Hey Cameron, thank you for making these videos, you made learning Fundamental Analysis easy and interesting. subscribed to your channel ,looking forward to seeing more of your videos

[@CstewartCFA]

Thank you. I appreciate the support

[@tanarpensionar6279]

A new subscriber from Romania, awesome video. Thank you for sharing.

[@anthonycapra3044]

Super informative video, I am in the process of learning how to evaluate equites and your videos are very helpful

[@stozo04]

Thank you!! Been waiting for AT&T!!

[@MadaAtoms]

Thanks man you crushed it!

[@Allen-L-Canada]

thanks for sprinkling more knowledges and tips as you go along the analysis!

[@zdenolego]

I really enjoy your analysis. When i look at this one again. In your second price target you calculate with outstanding shares 7300. But you have there that company is increasing shares during time by 3%. In different videos you coint with decreasing share numbers when they do buybacks. Like in wells fargo and msft analysis. But here you dont count increasing shares.

[@cindyyarns]

thank you for providing such valuable content!!! keep up the good work :)

[@vladi-tl1xi]

Good job! I ended up surprised for all the guidance that I've got. It was very well done. Congratulations and thanks a lot!

[@inquirer1016]

Very good breakdown. Love AT&T stock and Verizon stocks. Both give great dividend. Hard to believe TMobile is over a hundred with no dividend. AT&T is under priced. This is a great stock for new investors to the market and is a keeper.

[@so_crates1337]

Price per share is irrelevant, t mobile has 1 billion shares outstanding vs AT&T’s 7 billion shares outstanding. This is the reason. T mobile is also considerably a growth stock which is why there is no dividend, eventually when the growth is done they’ll pay a dividend

[@nelsoncaram3539]

Excellent Cameron !!! Thank you very I bougth 500 shares the last week.

[@Justin-cn3qu]

Our boy's metrics for a healthy value: 1) EBITDA % annual return > revenue (check) 2) (Debt + market cap = EV)/EBITDA < 6 (check) 3) Debt / EBITDA < 3 (check) 4) CFO - CAPEX - Debt = FCFE (foots and I like it). FCFE / shares =fcfshr/share price > 5% (check) 5) Topline revenue > 5% To project share price 10 years in the future, add FCFE% on top of current FCFE/share for each year, then divide by growth % to get price. However many times you added is how many years in the future you would expect that price to be seen at.

[@emkoravo]

Tip of the hat

[@mitchellbertram3231]

Really glad you got to this one!

[@golfer977]

Loving your content man! Value investing is going to be the strategy of this decade. Just found the channel and have watched 4 videos already today. Would love to see an analysis of an insurance industry stock given the low interest rate environment. They seem undervalued at the moment.

[@CstewartCFA]

Thanks for the support!

[@christhecricket5669]

Great video. Don't have any stock or share in ATT. Glad they bought cricket wireless. Paying 125 a month for 5 lines. Unlimited talk text and data.

[@danielremorini8292]

Best video i have seen in a while thank you!

[@CstewartCFA]

Wow, thanks!

[@pauelsky]

Great channel. Thank you for sharing your knowledge .

[@anson1418]

New subscriber. It's a very detailed analysis

[@bharatnegandhi4015]

Lots of hard work, Cameron and I really appreciate it. Thanks.

[@rubenezequielsollamedina1414]

Incredible analysis. Keep going! one of the best investing channels

[@CstewartCFA]

Much appreciated!

[@sili7270]

Great video!!!!! Thanks for all the details!!!

[@compounding-capital]

Thank you for that! What detail! Great analysis, I bought 420 shares at 27. If you look at the growth of streaming and how important communication is with what is going on in the world. AtnT basically paid $160 billion to get into a $250+ billion market of streaming with some solid brands to back it up, this is not reflected in their price yet.

[@JamesHampton0]

Great breakdown of the statement of cash flows!

[@jegarto]

Great content. could you share the formula to calculate the increase percentage in revenue. thanks in advance.

[@hugomotacarmo8485]

Great video! 👌 Keep the good work 💪

[@lazarimarin8132]

Thank you very much Cameron, can you analyze the SKT, China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd, or MACY'S INC stock ?

[@saiusmc]

Thank you for putting the time in for this video great information. Do you have any EV stock on your watch list?

[@igorvalle6050]

Cameron hi, it should be interesting to have an update on this after the last news that are changing in my opinion a little bit the situation. Including also the possibility to have shortly increased interest rates, with possible impact on the debt.

[@Peachfuzzman]

Thank you for going into detail in this video! The only section I seem to not fully grasp is the LTD + STD as I never seem to pull the same numbers as you do...but I will definitely use this model to analyze MCD and QSR!

[@chancejones5491]

Great info, I already had T but this just confirms my decision, thanks man!

[@jinxerific]

Hi Mr. Steward. I would like to put a question regarding Highly leveraged companies like could be AT&T. If Bond Yield raise, e maybe there would be a Interest Rate risk. What the position of a company would be? That implies some issues? or that would be safe as the Rate would affects only new issuing?

[@DiggingNorway]

Inspired by your method, I have started a spreadsheet on United Guardian (UG), small company with a very simple balance sheet and P&L, and some impressing numbers. Thank you for solid content and presentations.

[@ajubhosle]

What an amazing video! Amazing

[@investidorpobre2303]

Hum, on EBITDA GROWTH, you go from 54 to 56 = 15 % Growth? How?

[@CstewartCFA]

Hi thanks for the comment. I made a change to the excel sheet and didn't refresh the historical EBITDA grwoth calculation, avg growth rate was 7%. Didn't effect the forecast. Thanks for finding this.

[@haikvoskerchian2857]

Does the final valuation include dividends paid and reinvested or just dividends paid.

[@kanejobling7862]

would you pick this ahead of Verizon? and if so why? notice you estimate 15% for both

[@Lordslade1]

Love the break down......keep it up

[@Tential1]

I highly agree about cutting the dividend, if AT&T cut the dividend and I would be a huge buyer of the stock but currently I treat the stock like a bond. Their debt literally yields the same amount as the stock

[@mypa_pf]

This is when you wake up at a random hotel your using and realize that you wasted most of the battery. Because but other than the video not being good to ME, its a very good video.

[@davidezonta]

Thank you so much Cameron. Would like to queue up a request for a big Pharma of your choice. Keep up the excellent work

[@rocksoup2039]

Thank you for doing this youtube channel

[@jaapstrik4851]

Thanks for the analysis. I have a question tho, over time T did some major acquisitions , for instance in 2018 43B and in 2015 31 B. Is there a reason not to include these in the analysis, either separate or combine them with CAPEX?

[@kasunwanigasooriya829]

Thank you so much for this. Learning so much. Is it possible to do forecasting for Illumina? Thank you

[@wittttttt]

Why geometric average instead of arithmetic for EBITDA?

[@ajubhosle]

Amazing content, commenting for KZbin algorithm

[@Outta12]

Great video!!!!

[@Outta12]

AT&T is 23.93 today. Is it a steal now or am I missing some newer information?

[@SFreedberg1]

Has there been any updates on Alibaba taking in consideration the 2.8 billion paid out and the future political climate in China. Today it's at about 220. I like it a lot at this price and will likely pick up shares tomorrow. Maybe should have bought today but didn't pull the trigger.

[@mirkosprangers5879]

Sweet vid, been buying below 30. Would love to see IBM, but it's quite hard looking at the lack of growth

[@stanmanmedia]

Two questions, with them acquiring Directv, Warner with HBO etc, where does this show up in Cash Flow statement or other financial instruments, or how does one consider these things? And the other thing is many many people are cutting the cable. How do these things show up here with their subscriptions, especially now acquiring cable and satellite companies with customers going away from cable/satellite TV?

[@CstewartCFA]

StanMan Media the acquisitions are on the cash flow statement. There is a line called “acquisitions” for payments out and look for stock issuance or large debt inflows in the financing cash flow section. As to the subscribers reduction, yes, TV revenues are falling and T needs to solve that issue.

[@stanmanmedia]

@@CstewartCFA You do a tremendous job buddy. Thanks for the great help!!

[@sikanderchatha8983]

Hey Cameron, do you think you can do a analysis of Discovery and how the new Warner Media and Discovery merger will look like for Discovery?

[@christophernguyen9834]

Cam-love the analysis. Was wondering if you could do an intrinsic valuation & DCF for XOM? I’m still learning about finance and I love the way you write things.

[@CstewartCFA]

I did an XOM video already

[@jasonphillips3796]

Bought the dip and got this for under $29!

[@funlatindude]

Thank you for breaking down growth for AT&T. Lots of good info. Thanks for sharing. sub'd

[@hexodeci]

Can you do Berkshire?

[@easyBob100]

Hi! Great video! Do you think you could update it for the new 10k? Their income tanked, but it was due to asset impairment of 18 billion (which was a 9x increase over usual 2 billion). They also chunked down their debt again but also bought back 5.5 billion in shares, and all that tanked their EBITDA, putting their debt to EBITDA at 3.9 IIRC. I have no idea what that asset impairment means though, if it's bad that it was so high this time, or good to get it over with? I'm generally still happy with AT&T as a cheap stock. EDIT: Also, a stock for a video: KMB :) Again, great vids, subbed, been watching all of em.

[@gulfside-qn1on]

Thank you for this. I enjoy your videos and learn a lot from them. Question about ATT shares outstanding - I noticed in Yahoo Financials section it shows the number of shares outstanding, increasing the last few years. Is ATT issuing new shares and diluting value per share?

[@CstewartCFA]

correct. Their company earning's growth needs to offset the recent share count increase.

[@levont.husser153]

Smart guy... SUBSCRIBED!!!! 👍🏿

[@gustavol_]

Cameron considering the recent spinoff of some media assets, do you think it'll make a considerable difference in your analysis. I'm interested in the now lower price opportunity.

[@CstewartCFA]

If they can invest the cash profitably, wait and see how they discuss growth opportunities and judge if you believe them

[@David_Quinn1995]

I love T in my dividend portfolio and if they cut it during this time I will just swoop up more shares while it's down due to people selling out.

[@SabreClaw-oq4qh]

Any chance we can get a copy of the the excel file you use ?

[@Just_forfun9140]

Great presentation. People own this stock for dividend mostly, if they cut the dividend, share price will drop like a lead ball from a high tower. Management should be held accountable if they say no dividend cut and then cut, that happened with FTR. From your presentation, I understood that they have to cut the dividend, because they are paying all of available FCF towards dividend. Their CAPEX I assume includes 5G expenses. Bottom line: Should a retiree buy this stock at this time?

[@CstewartCFA]

Hi. Thanks for the comment. Yes they pay out most of their free cash as a dividend which can be maintained and is an ok business strategy. My only comment was to increase growth beyond their current path they should think about lowering the dividend a little. Either way I like the company.

[@williamdonabue6383]

Mr. Stewart, thank you for your videos. Do you have any insight about the upcoming spinoff of part of the business. It I my understanding that current T shareholders are going to receive shares of the spinoff and T will cut they're divided. To me this seems like a good deal for current shareholders. Any thoughts? Thank you again have a nice day.

[@CstewartCFA]

I've looked into it but want the companies to complete their merger and look at the consolidated numbers. I think there's value here.

[@williamdonabue6383]

@@CstewartCFA thank you for the reply. I'm looking forward to the next video.

[@michaelcloresandersm.d.7050]

Cameron, could you please repeat your analysis after the latest dividend cut from $2.08 to ????1.11? They are reducing debt from some of the bone-headed decision they made, as you recommended. It makes up to 5% of my portfolio, but I have been selling cash-covered Puts and covered Call to give me a 12.4% "synthetic dividend" for the year 2021 already. However, I am interested in your analysis after the dividend cut. Thanks.

[@CstewartCFA]

I'll need to see what they intend to do with the cash they retain. Their past investments have not been great so retaining that non-dividened cash should increase their growth rate but not if they can't invest it wisely.

[@michaelcloresandersm.d.7050]

@@CstewartCFA Thanks for your answer and your continued analysis support!

[@chendavid9582]

Can you do a review for JD?

[@sanjayhapani5559]

Can you do new video on at and t now

[@emkoravo]

Would you look at t mobile as a competitor as well. I always here vz and t together but not tmus. As always, thank you for the content.

[@mohitbhatia545]

Hi Cameron, have been following your videos and its excellent analysis with v good insights! Any plans to do an analysis on sin stocks like BAT, Philip Morris, Diageo, Pernod or luxury stocks like LVMH/Richemont? Did follow the Ab-inbev and Estee Lauder....Maybe a Sin/Lux series?

[@peterherlihey1326]

Cameron, would you consider a series (similar to your Airlines series) on insurance companies? Namely Metlife, Progressive, and Allstate? Thank for these videos! Learning so much!

[@SergiMedina]

I think it's somewhat cyclical and now it's the time to grow a little bit! Anyway, its 7 % dividend as aristocrat is niiiiice!

[@crohmer]

🙄

[@crohmer]

Not an aristocratic anymore

[@SergiMedina]

@@crohmer That's next year, if it happens. Meanwhile, I'm just getting big, fat dividends! And after that, I will gain even more in appreciation and shares of the new company because of the deal.

[@mauryziodoesitbetter]

Thank you Cameron for another great video.

[@CstewartCFA]

Glad you enjoyed it

[@Legui1231]

Another excellent video!

[@exclusivegofret]

guys sorry if this is a dumb question, but when he calculates Expected RR, does he include dividend payments as well ?

[@CstewartCFA]

Hi! Thanks for the comment. Yes the dividend is included in the cash flows

[@exclusivegofret]

@@CstewartCFA Thank you

[@daniellora1999]

They’re most certainly not going to cut their dividends that’s what 90% of its investors bought it for

[@proHannuTorrekens]

They probably should as their tangible book value is -100B USD.

[@simba1608]

This didn't age well

[@Coda1850]

🌚

[@IbadassI]

Wow, I loved how do you went into the stock, will look to pick up more if the stock drops 👍

[@moizalimirza1294]

Hi Cameron, I'm struggling to get to the 191,680m in LTD+STD you have have in your google sheet for 2019. I see LTD is 151,309m and that 11,838 is STD. But what else have you considered? Also not sure why your EBITDA growth from 45,572 in 2017 to 54,526 in 2018 is indicating 25% growth. This should be 19.6%.

[@CstewartCFA]

Moiz Ali Mirza Add the current and long-term portions of operating lease obligations

[@CstewartCFA]

Moiz Ali Mirza my sheet has 19.6% growth. Not sure what you are seeing...